A big bullpen bust in L.A.? Is Soto unlucky? Are the O’s cooked? An early verdict on 2025 disappointments
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David Schoenfield
It’s early June, meaning we’re more than a month away from the All-Star break and still have the dog days of August ahead of us. Even though that serves as a reminder that the 162-game baseball campaign is a long grind, we’re still more than a third of the way through the season.
With enough of a sample size now under our belt, it’s fair to ask: What’s going on with some of MLB’s biggest early disappointments?
Though there’s still time to turn things around, let’s dig into some of the teams and stars that have struggled so far in 2025. For each one, we’ll make a statement derived from their performance the first two months of the season — and determine whether it’s real or not real.
Players
Juan Soto isn’t the $765 million star the New York Mets had hoped he’d be
The right fielder is hitting .233/.361/.438 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs in 60 games, decent enough numbers if you were Jay Bruce or Marlon Byrd or Ryan Church, to name a few 21st century Mets right fielders. But Soto isn’t getting paid to be decent, and while Mets fans had shown a lot of patience with him, he did finally start receiving a few boos. He homered a couple times against the lowly Colorado Rockies last weekend to snap a 17-game skid where he hit .143 with no home runs — and homered off of Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday for his fifth straight game with an extra-base hit.
Now, there has been some talk about Soto just hitting into bad luck. Statcast tracks the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball to project expected results based on similar balls in play — and Soto’s numbers are way below where they “should” be:
2025 expected average: .299
2025 actual average: .233
2024 average: .288
2025 expected slugging: .590
2025 actual slugging: .438
2024 slugging: .569
His expected numbers look a lot more like his actual numbers from 2024 — but, of course, he’s getting paid to produce real results, not theoretical ones.
Has it just been bad luck though?
Here’s a quick rundown of 15 of his hardest-hit balls that weren’t ground balls and resulted in outs:
April 30: 112.7 mph, 16-degree launch angle, expected batting average of .750
Result: Lineout to deep right-center — right fielder Corbin Carroll shaded way over in the gap.
April 13: 112.4 mph, 11-degree LA, expected BA of .910
Result: Lineout to shortstop — the ball bounced off the top off the glove of a leaping Jacob Wilson and he caught the deflection.
May 7: 110.2 mph, 15-degree LA, expected BA of .840
Result: Lineout right to Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder Alek Thomas.
May 27: 109.9 mph, 19-degree LA, expected BA of .840
Result: Chicago White Sox outfielder Michael Taylor made a spectacular diving catch in right-center field.
May 9: 106.5 mph, 17-degree LA, expected BA of .910
Result: Chicago Cubs left fielder Ian Happ made a leaping grab.
April 30: 106 mph, 45-degree LA, expected BA of .190
Result: Towering routing fly ball to left field.
May 4: 105.9 mph, 31-degree LA, expected BA of .890
Result: St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Victor Scott robs a home run.
April 1: 104.8 mph, 18-degree LA, expected BA of .550
Result: Lineout right to the center fielder.
May 21: 104.7 mph, 30-degree LA, expected BA of .850
Result: Fly out to the warning track in deep left-center at Fenway.
April 29: 104 mph, 17-degree LA, expected BA of .470.
Result: Another lineout right to Alek Thomas in center field.
April 6: 103.2 mph, 19-degree LA, expected BA of .450.
Result: Easy catch for Toronto Blue Jays right fielder George Springer.
May 24: 102.5 mph, 28-degree LA, expected BA of .790
Result: Caught on the warning track by the center fielder.
May 4: 102 mph, 30-degree LA, expected BA of .690
Result: Fly out to the warning track in left field.
May 4: 99.7 mph, 35-degree LA, expected BA of .350
Result: Caught at the fence by the right fielder.
There were only three robberies that would easily classify as bad: Taylor’s amazing catch in which it almost appeared he trapped the ball, Scott’s leaping grab to rob Soto of a home run, and Wilson managing to corral Soto’s low liner up the middle. He had a few liners hit right to fielders, but every hitter registers some of those throughout a season.
Some of the balls in play had surprisingly high expected batting averages given the rather routine nature of the actual contact. For instance, the high fly ball at Fenway on May 21, just to the left of center field, went an estimated 376 feet. Statcast says it wouldn’t have been a home run in any of the 30 major league parks and it was an easy catch for Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, yet Statcast gave it an expected batting average of .850. My guess is most balls hit that hard at that launch angle (30 degrees) are pulled, creating a higher home run expectancy than a ball hit to center. (The wind was blowing in from right that night, although at just 3 mph, so that was only a small effect.) Soto had a couple of similar balls to left field that were also routine plays yet registered a high expected batting average.
Indeed, what we’ve seen here is hard contact — but a mix of low line drives or towering fly balls. Soto ranks in just the 23rd percentile in launch angle sweet spot (balls hit between 8 and 32 degrees), although his overall rate of 30.6% isn’t too much lower than last year’s 35.4% rate.
Is it possible the issue might be bad luck on grounders? Nope. He’s hitting .366 on hard-hit grounders (95-plus mph) compared to .293 in 2024 (and .187 on all grounders compared to .199 in 2024).
In the end, the difference is in fly ball production, according to TruMedia data:
2024: .405 average, 1.373 slugging
2025: .317 average, 1.098 slugging
(Soto actually has a slightly higher rate of hard-hit fly balls this season, 72.7% to 68.8%.)
One thing worth noting is that Soto’s expected numbers have been better than his actual numbers each of the past three seasons:
2024: .316 xBA, .646 xSLG (.288/.569 actual)
2023: .284 xBA, .538 xSLG (.275/.519 actual)
2022: .266 xBA, .501 xSLG (.242/.452 actual)
Verdict: Not Real
Look, we can debate the merits of the contract considering Soto’s lack of defensive and baserunning value. But the Mets aren’t paying him for those things, they’re paying him to hit — and he’ll be fine, even if it feels a little lazy to just call his start “bad luck.” He has hit a few extra grounders, a few extra balls to the left side instead of his pull side and, yes, has had a few hits stolen from him. Soto should put up big numbers the rest of the way and, luckily, the Mets have played well despite his slow start. This could be a really scary lineup when he heats up.
Soto was ESPN’s top free agent this past offseason, of course, and he’s not the only big free agent who has struggled so far (just the highest paid). Others have battled injuries (Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Tyler O’Neill), control problems (Roki Sasaki, Yusei Kikuchi), PED suspensions (Jurickson Profar) or just recently went down after hot starts (Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman).
Then we have Adames and Santander. Adames, who was No. 4 in ESPN’s free agent rankings, signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with the San Francisco Giants and is hitting .203/.293/.320 with five home runs and minus-0.2 WAR. Santander, who signed a five-year, $92.5 million deal with the Blue Jays, is hitting .179/.273/.304 with six home runs and minus-0.9 WAR.
Those two had similar profiles: low-average sluggers with some volatility to their offensive profiles plus concerns about their defense over the life of their contracts. Adames might already be playing himself off shortstop in just the first year of a seven-year deal, which doesn’t bode well for Buster Posey’s first big move as chief executive, especially with Matt Chapman locked into third base. Adames ranks in the 11th percentile in outs above average and last among shortstops with minus-7 defensive runs saved (and he wasn’t good in this category last season either). The Giants would live with below-average defense if Adames hit 32 home runs the way he did last season with the Milwaukee Brewers, but the offense hasn’t been there either.
Santander had 44 homers in 2024 with the Baltimore Orioles, but that felt like a career season for a player who doesn’t have elite exit velocity. Indeed, Santander’s hard-hit rate has fallen from the 77th percentile in 2023, to 60th in 2024, to 41st in 2025. He has made more starts at designated hitter than the outfield, which tells us what the Blue Jays think of his defense. And now he’s on the injured list because of shoulder inflammation and could sit out the rest of the month.
Verdict: Not Real
It’s too soon to write off either as a bust, but these contracts do look very shaky. In Santander’s case, we have to consider that shoulder and hip issues have affected his production. Adames was already a long-term risk to stay at shortstop and that concern has only been amplified. Let’s give him more time, but for a guy who turns 30 in September and appears to have declining range plus a high strikeout total, the initial returns aren’t good.
Tanner Scott is no longer one of the best relievers in baseball
Scott looked like one of the safer bets in free agency this past winter, coming off two dominant relief seasons in which he posted a 2.04 ERA with 188 strikeouts in 150 innings and gave up only six home runs. The Los Angeles Dodgers gave the left-hander a four-year, $72 million contract — a big deal for a reliever, but one that most agreed just added even more firepower to an already loaded bullpen.
Scott, who picked up his first win on Tuesday night, is 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA and has allowed hitters a .260 average and .727 OPS — compared to a .186 average and .528 OPS over the past two seasons. He had given up 10 earned runs in six innings over his past seven outings, suffering two losses and two blown saves, before Tuesday’s two-strikeout, no-run, one-inning outing.
“I’m just not hitting my locations,” Scott said after Monday’s loss to the Mets, “and it’s costing us.”
His fastball velocity is down 1 mph and his whiff rate on it has dropped from 29% last season to 20% in 2025. Scott mentioned not hitting locations, but his walk rate is actually way down to just 1.3 per nine innings compared to 4.5 in 2024. Maybe he needs to revert to more of an “effectively wild” approach that has worked in the past.
Verdict: Real
Relievers run hot and cold and can suffer a high burnout rate after just a couple of dominant seasons. Scott’s strikeout rate had already dipped slightly last season from 2023 and the four-seamer is showing a little less life this season. He’s still a good reliever and the ERA should drop moving forward, but he simply hasn’t been at the same dominant level we saw him at with the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres.
Sandy Alcantara is going to be the star of this trade deadline
It’s important to remember that the right-hander is returning from Tommy John surgery after not playing the 2024 season, but his 7.89 ERA and minus-1.4 WAR are hard to ignore. His stuff and velocity have been good, but the command has not been (4.7 walks per nine) and he has especially struggled against left-handers, who are hitting .270/.397/.480 off him with more walks than strikeouts. He hasn’t pitched as badly as the ERA suggests with a 5.04 FIP, but he has somehow allowed a .438 average with runners in scoring position.
At this rate, he could become the first pitcher since Jeff Fassero in 1999 to pitch at least 150 innings with an ERA over 7.00. (Jose Lima, believe it or not, twice had ERAs over 6.50 in the early 2000s while pitching at least 150 innings. Yes, that era was fun.)
Verdict: Not Real
Alcantara’s struggles are particularly damaging to Miami because, at the start of the season, he projected as perhaps the top trade target come July — and a chance for the Marlins to infuse some much-needed prospect help into their rebuild. A trade could still happen as teams will note his 97-mph fastball and 50% groundball rate, but he’ll need to roll out a string of great starts before the end of July for the Marlins to get any value in return. And right now, until he figures out how to get out left-handed batters, that isn’t happening.
Teams
The 2025 Baltimore Orioles are cooked
The Orioles’ struggles have been well documented: an injury-depleted starting rotation that has struggled with an ERA over 5.00, key hitters such as Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman who have underperformed, and a bullpen that hasn’t picked up the slack. It led to manager Brandon Hyde getting fired in mid-May even if, as the title of the old Jim Bouton book “I Managed Good, But Boy Did They Play Bad” might suggest, Hyde was simply the fall guy for a rookie owner surprised that his pitching staff fell apart after refusing to make any major upgrades in the offseason.
Coming off 101 wins in 2023 and 91 wins in 2024, a season approaching 100 losses would certainly qualify as one of the most disappointing in recent years. Looking back at FanGraphs’ preseason projected win totals, here are the top disappointments in win differential since 2021 for teams expected to finish over .500 (FanGraphs projected the Orioles to win 83 games in 2025, while ESPN projected 88 wins):
2023 Cardinals: minus-17 (projected 87, actual 71)
2021 Padres: minus-16 (projected 95, actual 79)
2023 Mets: minus-15 (projected 90, actual 75)
2021 Mets: minus-15 (projected 92, actual 77)
2021 Twins: minus-15 (projected 88, actual 73)
Verdict: Real
It’s probably too late for the Orioles to turn things around. Sweeping the White Sox this past weekend is a start, but they began the week with playoff odds under 2%. Last year, it took 86 wins to win a wild card in the American League. The Orioles will have to play at a 100-win pace the rest of the way just to get to 86. The lack of pitching depth suggests that is unlikely to happen, even if Henderson and Rutschman — and the rest of the offense — come to life.
The Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves offenses will keep them from playing in October
In 2023, the Braves led the majors with a robust 5.85 runs per game while the Rangers ranked third at 5.44 (and then averaged 5.71 in the playoffs on their way to a World Series title). Both lineups fell off in 2024, although Atlanta’s pitching was good enough to help the Braves secure the final wild-card spot. In 2025? It has been more like last season so far, as the Braves are averaging just 4.05 runs and the Rangers are scuffling at just 3.36.
Both teams are under .500 and have wasted good pitching in the process, especially the Rangers, who rank second in the majors behind only the Mets in runs allowed per game. The Rangers’ top three of Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom have crushed it, combining for a 1.97 ERA. Eovaldi just landed on the IL because of triceps tendinitis, although it’s expected to be the minimum stay.
The Rangers acquired Jake Burger and Joc Pederson in the offseason to bolster the offense, but Burger has a .250 OBP and Pederson has hit .131 with a .269 OBP. Marcus Semien isn’t driving the ball, hitting .199 with only six extra-base hits — he had 73 in the World Series season — while Adolis Garcia‘s offense continues to stagnate with a .258 OBP. The lineup has been so bad that manager Bruce Bochy recently had Triple-A journeyman Sam Haggerty batting leadoff for an entire week.
The Braves have been marginally better and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return will help boost the meager production from their outfielders, but this clearly isn’t the feared lineup of 2023 that became the first team to slug .500 as a team. Indeed, the only player aside from Acuña slugging .500 is rookie part-time catcher Drake Baldwin, who’s sitting at .518.
Verdict: Real
The Rangers are likely to see some regression from their pitching — Eovaldi and Mahle have been almost impossibly good and the bullpen still looks shaky on paper — so even though the AL is wide open, it has been two years of bad offense. OBP is life in baseball — and the Rangers simply don’t have it.
FanGraphs still pegs the Braves’ playoff odds near 50%, projecting them as the second-best team in the NL the rest of the way behind only the Dodgers. Of course, Atlanta also has Spencer Strider back now, but we need to see a good outing before we assume it’s the 2022-23 version of Strider — indeed, he allowed three home runs on Tuesday and dropped to 0-4. Raisel Iglesias‘ struggles are another big problem. In a top-heavy NL, the Braves have dug themselves a hole and I don’t see the offense suddenly starting to light up the scoreboard.
The Diamondbacks’ pitching will turn itself around after brutal start
The Diamondbacks once again have one of the best offenses in the majors, but they’re looking up at the Dodgers, Padres and Giants in the NL West because the pitching has struggled — and the rotation now has to find ways to win without Burnes.
Zac Gallen is 4-7 with a 5.13 ERA and leads the National League in walks. Eduardo Rodriguez — a big free agent a year ago — is 1-3 with a 7.05 ERA and is now 4-7 with a 5.99 ERA in his Diamondbacks career, apparently another example of the risk in signing free agent starters. Brandon Pfaadt does have seven wins, but is averaging just 7.1 strikeouts per nine and has a 5.05 ERA. He also just had one of the worst starts in major league history, facing eight batters, not getting any of them out, and seeing all eight score. The bullpen, meanwhile, ranks 26th in ERA and 29th in win probability.
Verdict: Not Real
I might have been inclined to say “Real” until Burnes landed on the IL. For now, the Diamondbacks are saying elbow inflammation, so at least it’s not Tommy John surgery. If he’s out for a lengthy period, it might be tough to overcome. Remember, Jordan Montgomery is already out because of Tommy John surgery.
The bullpen has its own problems: Kevin Ginkel was just sent down to the minors with a 12.60 ERA, Joe Mantiply was released and A.J. Puk remains on the 60-day IL.
We are one month away from having college football back, with Iowa State and Kansas State kicking things off from Dublin on Aug. 23.
With games so close at hand, we asked our reporters to single out one contest for each of our post-spring Top 25 teams that could swing their season one way or the other. On paper, what is the one game that will play the biggest role in determining whether the season is a success or a dud?
Some will come in major nonconference battles over the first couple of weeks, some are more traditional league games that could set the tone for the things to come. But they’re all worth circling on your calendars and contemplating as the season nears.
Other Top 25 lists: X factors | Areas of concern | Sleepers
Swing game: vs. Oregon, Sept. 27
Among the national title contenders, Penn State will provide the fewest clues during the first portion of the schedule, which includes nonleague games against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova. But after an open week, the Lions will face their first mega test, as they host Oregon in a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten championship game. The Ducks ran the table during their first season as a league member, but they didn’t face a road test like Beaver Stadium at night. Coaches and quarterbacks are always linked, but Penn State’s James Franklin and Drew Allar will be under an especially bright spotlight as they try to reverse their big-game trend lines. A win stamps Penn State as the team to beat in the Big Ten this season, about a month before it heads to Ohio State on Nov 1. — Adam Rittenberg
Swing game: vs. LSU, Aug. 30
This one is fairly obvious. The Tigers open the season at home against LSU, a huge game that will serve to show whether all the hype surrounding Clemson is warranted. Clemson has lost three of its last four season openers, including two to another SEC school in Georgia. Winning is hugely important, but so is the way Clemson looks right out of the gate with an experienced team that returns its best playmakers on offense and some of its best defenders from a year ago. Here is why that “eye test” matters to perception: In those three season-opening losses to Georgia (2021, 2024) and Duke (2023), Clemson managed to score a combined 13 points and just one total touchdown. That simply cannot happen with Cade Klubnik entering Year 3 as the starter. — Andrea Adelson
Swing game: vs. Oklahoma at Cotton Bowl, Oct. 11
It’s always Oklahoma. It’s early October. The SEC schedule is getting under way. And no matter what, this game ends up being unpredictable and usually a dogfight. Like when the 0-4 Sooners were 22-point underdogs in John Blake’s first season in 1996, or in 2013 and 2015 when unranked Texas teams beat No. 12 and No. 10 OU teams. The last three years show the swings. In 2022, Texas won 49-0. In 2023, No. 12 Oklahoma stunned No. 3 Texas in the final seconds 34-30, then the Longhorns bounced back to crush the Sooners 34-3 last season. — Dave Wilson
Swing game: at Tennessee, Sept. 13
After hosting Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay to start the season, the Bulldogs will play an early SEC road game at Tennessee on Sept. 13. It will be a significant road test for starting quarterback Gunner Stockton and the offense playing in one of the most intimidating road environments in the SEC. The Volunteers dominated the Bulldogs throughout the 1990s, but Georgia has flipped the script, winning eight in a row and 13 of the past 15 contests in the series. The Bulldogs won each of their past four games at Neyland Stadium by at least 24 points. With a home game against Alabama coming next on the schedule, coach Kirby Smart will be looking for a similar performance at Rocky Top. — Mark Schlabach
Swing game: vs. Texas, Aug. 30
In 2006, the Buckeyes throttled Texas in Week 2 in Austin 24-7, setting the tone for Ohio State’s undefeated regular season and trip to the national title game. The Buckeyes face Texas again, this time in the opener in Columbus. The Longhorns are loaded, led by unproven but ultra-talented quarterback Arch Manning. Texas will also be aiming for revenge after falling to Ohio State in dramatic fashion during last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal. Even with so many key players off last year’s team gone, the Buckeyes can announce to the rest of college football that they remain a serious national title threat with a Week 1 victory over Manning and the Longhorns. Such an impressive nonconference win would also give Ohio State an early inside track to one of the four coveted playoff byes. — Jake Trotter
Swing game: at Clemson, Aug. 30
LSU is 0-3 in season openers under Brian Kelly. If there were a year to change that and set the table for the season, this is it. Cade Klubnik is expected by many to be among the best quarterbacks in college football this season, with Clemson primed for another run into the CFP this season. LSU looks just about as talented and ready to make a national championship push as any team in the country, but the Tigers need to look closer to their final form from the jump than they have in recent years. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Swing game: at Miami, Aug. 31
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman won’t have to wait long to learn if his team is a CFP national title contender. The Fighting Irish open the season at Miami on Aug. 31, then host Texas A&M two weeks later on Sept. 13. The opener against the Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, will be a tremendous test for Notre Dame’s new starting quarterback, presumably redshirt freshman CJ Carr. The Hurricanes have CFP aspirations of their own after adding former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, LSU receiver CJ Daniels and a plethora of defensive backs from the transfer portal. The Irish lost to Miami 41-8 in their last trip to South Florida in 2017. Notre Dame’s 23-13 victory at Texas A&M in the 2024 opener gave Freeman’s team belief it could be a CFP contender. It was a physical heavyweight fight until the Irish scored twice in the final two minutes to break open a 13-13 tie. — Mark Schlabach
Swing game: at Penn State, Sept. 27
The Ducks’ matchup in Happy Valley against Penn State in late September may just be the biggest game of their entire season. Both Oregon and Penn State are not only top-10 ranked teams heading into the year (if not top-5), they are also both legitimate national title contenders. This is also a rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game, which the Ducks won in convincing fashion. Round 2, this time in a hostile environment for the defending conference champions, will have plenty of juice. — Paolo Uggetti
Swing game: Alabama at Georgia, Sept. 27
Alabama closes the month of September by traveling to Georgia on Sept. 27, and it doesn’t figure to be a cushy first month for the Tide. They open the season at Florida State on Aug. 30 and face Wisconsin at home two weeks prior to the trip to Georgia. A loss at Georgia wouldn’t necessarily be a crippling blow, especially since Georgia hasn’t lost a game at home in five years, but winning in Athens would afford Alabama a mulligan (or two) if the Tide were to trip up the rest of the way against somebody they shouldn’t lose to. — Chris Low
Swing game: vs. West Virginia, Oct. 3
The Big 12 opener against Colorado on Sept. 27 is one to circle but it’s the next week — at home against West Virginia — that could really swing momentum one way or the other. If the Cougars start 4-0 (they play Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina in nonconference), a win here to move to 2-0 in conference play would be huge — especially since they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback and that early-season experience will matter. And if they lose to Colorado, they’ll need a win over the Mountaineers to avoid an 0-2 start, which would essentially end any hopes of building off of last year’s brilliant campaign before the season even has a chance to really get going. — Kyle Bonagura
Swing game: at Indiana, Sept. 20
The Illini face two September road tests that could shape how the rest of the season goes. Picking between Duke (Sept. 6) and Indiana (Sept. 20) is difficult, but the visit to the Hoosiers jumps out because they made the CFP last season and return several stars from a very stout defense. Cal quarterback transfer Fernando Mendoza will provide a good test for an Illinois defense that was susceptible against the pass last year, finishing 78th nationally. The Illini also have struggled lately in Bloomington, dropping their last two games there and three of the last four. A win in the Big Ten opener could propel Illinois entering a pivotal stretch that includes home games against USC and Ohio State, and a trip to Washington. — Rittenberg
Swing game: at Baylor, Sept. 20
The nonconference schedule should allow ASU to ease into 2025 a bit — the Sun Devils will likely be double-digit favorites or close to it in each of their first three games. But starting with their Week 4 trip to Baylor, things get awfully tricky. Baylor is among many aspiring Big 12 contenders, and the Bears will already be battle-tested, having begun the season with Auburn and SMU. The Big 12 spoils go to the teams that win super-close games, and on paper this one is likely to be super close. Beginning a conference title defense with a loss would be awfully ominous. — Bill Connelly
Swing game: at Texas A&M, Nov. 15
South Carolina has an absolute gauntlet of a five-game stretch in the middle of the season that starts with a trip to LSU before hosting Oklahoma and Alabama, then going on the road to Ole Miss and Texas A&M. If the Gamecocks want to make a playoff run, they’ll likely need to win at least two of those five — and maybe three, given that Missouri and Clemson are also on the docket — which could be a big ask. So what’s the pivot point? If we assume the Gamecocks can take care of business at home — a big assumption, to be sure — that means they’ll need to steal at least one on the road. Ole Miss smoked South Carolina in Columbia last year, so that could be a tall order, and winning in Baton Rouge is never easy. So that puts the focus squarely on Texas A&M. A big win on the road over the Aggies in mid-November could be a statement to the playoff committee and put South Carolina squarely in the mix for a top-12 position. — David Hale
Swing game: vs. Arizona, Sept. 27
The Hawkeyes have a Big 12 game to open the season against Kansas State, so there is no easing into the season — and that’s before factoring in Iowa coming to town Sept. 6. So Cyclones fans won’t have to wait long before having a decent sense of what to expect this year. Let’s go ahead and assume they beat South Dakota and Arkansas State and could be 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0 headed in the fifth game against Arizona. The result of that game against the Wildcats would significantly shape expectations for the rest of the way. — Bonagura
Swing game: at Clemson, Oct. 18
SMU’s schedule for the first half of the season is manageable, with home dates against Baylor and Syracuse and a road trip to TCU providing the toughest matchups. The Mustangs won’t be at a serious talent disadvantage in any of them, making a strong start to the season imperative. The back half of the schedule, however, gets much tougher, starting with the clear swing game — and a chance for revenge from last year’s ACC championship — when the Mustangs travel to Death Valley to take on Clemson on Oct. 18. That game kicks off a gauntlet that sees SMU hosting Miami and Louisville and making tough road trips to BC and Cal in the season’s final weeks. Whether SMU was a one-hit wonder in the ACC or is a power ready to compete will be determined down the stretch in 2025, with no game looming larger than the date with the Tigers. — Hale
Swing game: at Arizona State, Oct. 18.
The Red Raiders’ game in Salt Lake City against Utah could be a challenge, facing a revamped team that is always a tough out in Rice-Eccles Stadium. But Texas Tech and Arizona State are viewed as two of the clear cut favorites in the Big 12. This game comes two weeks before the Red Raiders have to go to Manhattan and face another conference contender in Kansas State. As we learned in 2024, this new-look Big 12 can be quite unpredictable. — Lyles Jr.
Swing game: at Iowa, Sept. 27
After what should be a straightforward start to the season with some nonconference matchups the Hoosiers should be able to take care of, the season ramps up with their first road trip to Iowa. While the Hawkeyes aren’t projected to be a surefire top-25 team this season, playing at Kinnick is never easy. Going into that environment and emerging with a victory could be a tone-setter for Indiana’s season in large part because of the game that precedes that matchup and the one that follows it. The conference opener against Illinois a week prior will be a tough first hurdle, while a road trip to Eugene to face Oregon after the Iowa game will be even tougher. Playing that stretch 2-1 instead of 1-2 (or even 0-3!) will be imperative. — Uggetti
Swing game: vs. Iowa State at Dublin, Aug. 23
Week 0 swing games are rarely a thing, but wow, is Farmageddon big this season. The Wildcats’ battle with Iowa State in Dublin on Aug. 23 will make the winner an automatic Big 12 front-runner and will leave the loser on wobbly ground before the official first Saturday of the 2025 campaign. With Avery Johnson entering his second year as the Wildcats’ starting quarterback, K-State has a bit more upside, and is facing a bit more pressure, than usual. Starting the season 0-1 would double that pressure. — Connelly
Swing game: at LSU, Sept. 13
Florida once again didn’t get any favors from the schedule makers, and the Gators will get an early test in Baton Rouge against LSU. On paper, this feels like a year that Brian Kelly is going to have things put together in the Bayou, in part because he’s got the coveted returning starter at QB in Garrett Nussmeier. Along with the incumbent talent, Kelly and his staff did a really good job in the transfer portal and will be a tough out every Saturday this fall. If Florida wins this game, or even loses a close one, it will bode well for the rest of the season. — Lyles Jr.
Swing game: at Oklahoma, Sept. 6
The Wolverines head to Oklahoma in Week 2 to face Sherrone Moore’s alma mater. Beating Ohio State for a fourth straight time salvaged last season for the Wolverines, who had to surge late in the year just to secure a winning record in Moore’s first full season as head coach. Michigan will have bigger expectations in 2025, especially with the arrival of five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. If the Wolverines can knock off the Sooners in Norman, they’ll be sending a statement that they’re potentially ready to contend for a playoff spot again. But if the Wolverines fall to Oklahoma, they could then have to weather a proposed two-game suspension for Moore, which includes a trip to Nebraska on Sept. 20, just to keep their postseason hopes afloat early. — Trotter
Swing game: vs. Notre Dame, Aug. 31
I am going to put a caveat on my answer here because of the way last season turned out. The season opener against Notre Dame is going to tell us plenty about where Miami stands in 2025. That starts at quarterback, where Georgia transfer Carson Beck is expected to be fully recovered from an elbow injury he sustained in the SEC championship game. Will he be able to bring the same dynamic play to the table that Cam Ward did last year to set the tone? How will the new-look receivers and revamped defense look? So much about Miami is unknown headed into this game because of the complete roster revamp, which was much needed on the defensive side. Having said that, we all thought the season would go differently for Miami a year ago after its trouncing of Florida in the season opener. For the most part, it went well, with 10 wins. But the Canes fell short of playing for a title, and that has to change sooner rather than later. — Adelson
Swing game: at Miami, Oct. 17
Louisville took Miami to the wire last year in front of the home fans, and only a disastrous performance by the secondary against Cam Ward allowed the Canes to escape with a win. This year’s rematch in south Florida will be a chance for a little revenge and, likely, an opportunity for the Cardinals to establish their playoff bona fides in a big way. While there are no guarantees, the early part of Louisville’s slate sets up nicely for the Cards to enter the Oct. 17 date with Miami at 5-0, and if they can add a win against the Canes to that résumé, there’s a good chance Louisville would be flirting with a top-10 ranking. Just as important, it would set the stage for stretch run in November that includes games against Clemson, SMU and Kentucky. — Hale
Swing game: at Notre Dame, Sept. 13
The Sept. 13 trip to Notre Dame should be a slugfest akin to last year’s 23-13 shoving match at Kyle Field. The Aggies’ offensive line has morphed from a weakness under Jimbo Fisher to a strength in two years and the Notre Dame D-line is one of the best in the country. It’s likely to be the only game in the first seven weeks of the season in which the Aggies will be an underdog, and in Year 2 of the Mike Elko era, it’s a key test to measure how ready they are to push the rest of the SEC. — Wilson
Swing game: vs. LSU, Sept. 27
Ole Miss has games before this that they shouldn’t sleep on — in Lexington in Week 2, then against Arkansas and Tulane the following weeks. But LSU appears to be one of the three best teams in the SEC heading into the season, and having this game at home is big for Ole Miss. Down the road, a more difficult task awaits on the road in Athens against Georgia, so building up a callus against the Tigers will be key. — Lyles Jr.
Swing game: vs. Michigan, Sept. 6
Four of Oklahoma’s first five games are at home, and the only road contest is at Temple on Sept. 13. But in Week 2, the Sooners could build some serious momentum when Michigan comes to town for a prime-time game. A win against the Wolverines would give the Sooners a real chance at a 5-0 start entering the Red River Showdown against Texas on Oct. 6. The back end of Oklahoma’s schedule is especially difficult (Texas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama all away from home, plus Ole Miss and LSU at home), so getting off to a good start will be critical for the Sooners. — Low
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Adam Rittenberg
LAS VEGAS — Maryland football coach Mike Locksley admitted Tuesday he “lost” the locker room in 2024 over which players to compensate, a factor that led to the Terrapins’ worst season since his debut in 2019.
The Terrapins finished 4-8 and dropped all but one of their Big Ten contests. Maryland had more players selected in the NFL draft (six) than wins, as it lost its final five games, all by 14 points or more. Locksley attributed part of the struggles to the changing financial landscape in college football, as Maryland had to make decisions on how to compensate players through NIL deals and ultimately created some divisions.
“I own the fact that I lost my locker room,” Locksley told ESPN. “And this is Coach Locks, the locker room king, telling you this landscape, I had to choose between paying young players who were coming in or reward the older players that have been through the fire, three bowl wins, and I tried to do both with limited resources. And that’s what you get: a locker room with the haves and have-nots.”
Locksley, who is entering his seventh season at Maryland and 10th overall as an FBS coach, called the experience “a valuable lesson” in how to manage players, relationships and expectations. Maryland won three consecutive bowl games under Locksley, from 2021 to 2023.
“You go outside my locker room [now] and I have a sign that says: ‘Leave your Louis belts, leave your financial statements and your car keys outside of this locker room, because in here we’re all going to pay the same price for success or failure,'” he said. “If I’ve got to put my desk in that locker room, I will. A valuable lesson learned.”
Locksley said the House settlement and the money Maryland distributes to its players have allowed him to focus more on the locker room rather than external fundraising.
Maryland will enter the season with questions at quarterback — where UCLA transfer Justyn Martin, redshirt freshman Khristian Martin and decorated incoming freshman Malik Washington, ESPN’s No. 134 overall recruit, will compete — and other positions.
“I call this a year of vulnerability for me, because I’ve been torn about what to say about our team when people ask; but I don’t know what type of team we have yet,” he said. “Some people, as a coach, it’s like a bad thing to say, ‘I don’t know.’ But it’s a good thing that I don’t know.”
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