A week today, Rachel Reeves presents the spending review; how the budget is divided between government departments between 2026 and 2029 – the bulk of this parliament.
It’s a foundational moment for this government – and a key to determining the success of this administration.
The chancellor did boost spending significantly in her first year, and this year there was a modest rise.
However, the uplift to day-to-day spending in the years ahead is more modest – and pared back further in March’s spring statement because of adverse financial conditions.
Plus, where will the £113bn of capital – project – spending go?
So, we’ve done a novel experiment.
We’ve taken Treasury documents, ministerial statements and reports from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
We put them all into AI – into the deep research function of ChatGPT – and asked it to write the spending review, calculate the winners and losers and work out what goes where, and why.
It comes with a health warning. We’re using experimental technology that is sometimes wrong, and while ChatGPT can access up-to-date data from across the web, it’s only trained on information up to October 2023.
There are no answers because discussions are still going on. Think of it like a polling projection – clues about the big picture as things move underneath.
But, critically, the story it tells tallies with the narrative I’m hearing from inside government too.
The winners? Defence, health and transport, with Angela Rayner’s housing department up as well.
Everywhere else is down, compared with this year’s spending settlement.
The Home Office, justice, culture, and business – facing real terms squeezes from here on in.
The aid budget from the Foreign Office, slashed – the Ministry of Defence the beneficiary. You heard about that this week.
Health – a Labour priority. I heard from sources a settlement of around 3%. This AI model puts it just above.
Transport – a surprise winner. Rachel Reeves thinks this is where her capital budget should go. Projects in the north to help hold voters who live there.
Image: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will not be happy with ChatGPT’s suggestion for her department. Pic: PA
Education – down overall. Now this government will protect the schools budget. It will say ‘per pupil’ funding is up. But adult education is at risk. Is this where they find the savings?
So much else – Home Office down, but is that because asylum costs are going down.
Energy – they’re haggling over solar panels versus home insulation.
Justice should get what it wants, I am told. This isn’t about exact percentages. But you can see across lots of departments – things are tight.
Even though Rachel Reeves has already set the budgets for last year and this, and only needs to decide spending allocations from 2026 onwards, the graphs the Treasury will produce next week compare what will be spent to the last set of Tory plans.
This means their graphs will include the big spending increases they made last year – and flatter them more.
They’ll say that’s fair enough, others will disagree. But in the end, will it be enough for public services?
Without localized risk detection and public–private cooperation, illicit capital will continue to flow unchecked, and trust in the system will collapse.
Thousands more Afghan nationals may have been affected by another data breach, the government has said.
Up to 3,700 Afghans brought to the UK between January and March 2024 have potentially been impacted as names, passport details and information from the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy has been compromised again, this time by a breach on a third party supplier used by the Ministry of Defence (MoD).
This was not an attack directly on the government but a cyber security incident on a sub-contractor named Inflite – The Jet Centre – an MoD supplier that provides ground handling services for flights at London Stansted Airport.
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July: UK spies exposed in Afghan data breach
The flights were used to bring Afghans to the UK, travel to routine military exercises, and official engagements. It was also used to fly British troops and government officials.
Those involved were informed of it on Friday afternoon by the MoD, marking the second time information about Afghan nationals relocated to the UK has been compromised.
It is understood former Tory ministers are also affected by the hack.
Earlier this year, it emerged that almost 7,000 Afghan nationals would have to be relocated to the UK following a massive data breach by the British military that successive governments tried to keep secret with a super-injunction.
Defence Secretary John Healey offered a “sincere apology” for the first data breach in a statement to the House of Commons, saying he was “deeply concerned about the lack of transparency” around the data breach, adding: “No government wishes to withhold information from the British public, from parliamentarians or the press in this manner.”
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July: Afghan interpreter ‘betrayed’ by UK govt
The previous Conservative government set up a secret scheme in 2023 to relocate Afghan nationals impacted by the data breach, but who were not eligible for an existing programme to relocate and help people who had worked for the British government in Afghanistan.
The mistake exposed personal details of close to 20,000 individuals, endangering them and their families, with as many as 100,000 people impacted in total.
A government spokesperson said of Friday’s latest breach: “We were recently notified that a third party sub-contractor to a supplier experienced a cyber security incident involving unauthorised access to a small number of its emails that contained basic personal information.
“We take data security extremely seriously and are going above and beyond our legal duties in informing all potentially affected individuals. The incident has not posed any threat to individuals’ safety, nor compromised any government systems.”
In a statement, Inflite – The Jet Centre confirmed the “data security incident” involving “unauthorised access to a limited number of company emails”.
“We have reported the incident to the Information Commissioner’s Office and have been actively working with the relevant UK cyber authorities, including the National Crime Agency and the National Cyber Security Centre, to support our investigation and response,” it said.
“We believe the scope of the incident was limited to email accounts only, however, as a precautionary measure, we have contacted our key stakeholders whose data may have been affected during the period of January to March 2024.”