A week today, Rachel Reeves presents the spending review; how the budget is divided between government departments between 2026 and 2029 – the bulk of this parliament.
It’s a foundational moment for this government – and a key to determining the success of this administration.
The chancellor did boost spending significantly in her first year, and this year there was a modest rise.
However, the uplift to day-to-day spending in the years ahead is more modest – and pared back further in March’s spring statement because of adverse financial conditions.
Plus, where will the £113bn of capital – project – spending go?
So, we’ve done a novel experiment.
We’ve taken Treasury documents, ministerial statements and reports from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
We put them all into AI – into the deep research function of ChatGPT – and asked it to write the spending review, calculate the winners and losers and work out what goes where, and why.
It comes with a health warning. We’re using experimental technology that is sometimes wrong, and while ChatGPT can access up-to-date data from across the web, it’s only trained on information up to October 2023.
There are no answers because discussions are still going on. Think of it like a polling projection – clues about the big picture as things move underneath.
But, critically, the story it tells tallies with the narrative I’m hearing from inside government too.
The winners? Defence, health and transport, with Angela Rayner’s housing department up as well.
Everywhere else is down, compared with this year’s spending settlement.
The Home Office, justice, culture, and business – facing real terms squeezes from here on in.
The aid budget from the Foreign Office, slashed – the Ministry of Defence the beneficiary. You heard about that this week.
Health – a Labour priority. I heard from sources a settlement of around 3%. This AI model puts it just above.
Transport – a surprise winner. Rachel Reeves thinks this is where her capital budget should go. Projects in the north to help hold voters who live there.
Image: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will not be happy with ChatGPT’s suggestion for her department. Pic: PA
Education – down overall. Now this government will protect the schools budget. It will say ‘per pupil’ funding is up. But adult education is at risk. Is this where they find the savings?
So much else – Home Office down, but is that because asylum costs are going down.
Energy – they’re haggling over solar panels versus home insulation.
Justice should get what it wants, I am told. This isn’t about exact percentages. But you can see across lots of departments – things are tight.
Even though Rachel Reeves has already set the budgets for last year and this, and only needs to decide spending allocations from 2026 onwards, the graphs the Treasury will produce next week compare what will be spent to the last set of Tory plans.
This means their graphs will include the big spending increases they made last year – and flatter them more.
They’ll say that’s fair enough, others will disagree. But in the end, will it be enough for public services?
A man has died after suffering cardiac arrest onboard a boat attempting to reach the UK.
The vessel turned back towards Equihen beach on the French coast yesterday morning.
A nurse tried to resuscitate the man but was unsuccessful.
Image: Pic: PA
French authorities have now launched an investigation into the circumstances.
A spokesperson for Doctors Without Borders, also known as MSF, has criticised authorities on both sides of the Channel.
Jacob Burns said: “Yet again we have a tragedy in the Channel, that is the consequence of the deadly, costly and ineffective security policies implemented by the UK and France.”
Image: Pic: PA
Later on Saturday, a lifeboat carried migrants who have made the voyage into the Port of Dover.
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Photographs showed them huddled under blankets and orange life jackets on board.
“The opportunity of tomorrow and what’s on offer is the best thing in football,” the England captain said. “I think we don’t necessarily carry the weight of it and how much it means to people, but we’re aware of it because it means the same to us.”
So often they were only watching other nations making finals.
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England’s first was the men winning the 1966 World Cup.
Image: England manager Sarina Wiegman reacts to defeat against Spain at the Women’s World Cup final in 2023. Pic: Reuters
Image: Lauren James looks dejected after their World Cup defeat, but is confirmed fit for Sunday’s revenge match against Spain. Pic: Reuters
Now, in Basel, comes the chance for revenge against Spain – even though no one in the England camp is saying that, publicly at least, in Switzerland.
Especially knowing how challenging a task it is coming up again against Aitana Bonmati and Alexia Putella – the recent winners of football’s biggest individual honours.
Image: England fans celebrating after England beat Italy to reach the finals. Pic: Reuters
Image: Given England’s history against Spain, it could be a nerve-wracking time for England fans. File pic: Action Images/Reuters
But this is Spain’s first Euros final.
And there is some fear from the world champions at England’s grit and resolve to produce comebacks late in the quarter-finals and semi-finals – with 19-year-old Michelle Agyemang’s goals integral to the fightbacks.
Image: England celebrate their semi-final win against Italy to reach the finals. Pic: Reuters
Image: Michelle Agyemang has propelled England to the Euro 2025 final with two vital goals. Pic: AP
Spain captain Irene Paredes reflected yesterday on how the Lionesses can flip a result late on.
But she was also discussing how their World Cup win was tarnished by the on-pitch kiss that led to former Spanish federation president Luis Rubiales being convicted of a sexual assault on striker Jenni Hermoso.
It sparked a wider clamour in Spain for improved rights and respect for women.
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Spain’s players struggle for respect
“Since then [2023] we took big steps forward,” Paredes said.
“I think this idea is disappearing from society. I still believe we have to continue opening doors… we’re a reference for boys and girls in society, but we still have things to do.”
It is a reminder that while tonight is about collecting silverware, both England and Spain know that emerging as champions can drive further growth in women’s football back home.
Amid it all, they’ll try to savour just what reaching a final means and how rare they are – until recently for English and Spanish women.
A woman who thought she was being injected with Botox was left unable to swallow and doctors thought she had suffered a stroke – after she contracted a life-threatening illness from a potentially illegal product.
Nicola Fairley is one of dozens of people who have developed botulism linked to unlicensed anti-wrinkle injections.
She had the procedure done with her regular beautician after winning a Facebook competition for three areas of “Botox”.
Image: Nicola Fairley
“Within two or three hours my forehead and the sides of my eyes had started to freeze,” Nicola says.
“At first I thought ‘amazing’, that’s what I wanted – then it just carried on.”
Nicola was eventually sent to A&E in Durham, where she met several other patients who all had similar symptoms.
Doctors were stumped. “They thought I’d had a stroke,” she says.
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“We all had problems with our eyes, some of us with our breathing. I couldn’t swallow – they put me on nil by mouth because they were worried I would choke in the waiting room.”
Image: Doctors were worried Nicola could choke after she was injected with a suspected illegal product
It turns out all of the patients had recently had anti-wrinkle injections containing botulinum toxin.
Health officials believe they were imported, illegal products.
Botulism – the disease they caused – is so rare many doctors never see it in their entire careers.
It can cause symptoms including slurred speech and breathing problems, and can be deadly.
The disease is so unusual, and so many cases were coming in, that doctors exhausted their stocks of anti-toxin and had to ask hospitals as far away as London to get more.
The UK Health Security Agency has so far confirmed 38 cases of botulism linked to cosmetic toxin injections, but Sky News has been told of several more.
The outbreak began in the North East but cases have now been seen in the East of England and East Midlands as well.
There are only a handful of legal botulinum toxin products in the UK – of which Botox is one.
But cosmetic treatments are largely unregulated, with anyone allowed to inject products like fillers and toxins without any medical training.
Cheap, illegal products imported from overseas are easily available.
Image: Dr Steven Land
‘It’s the Wild West’
Dr Steven Land runs Novellus Aesthetics clinic in Newcastle upon Tyne. He worked for decades as an emergency medicine doctor before moving into aesthetics.
He says he has been warning health officials of an outbreak for years.
“It’s the Wild West,” Dr Land told Sky News.
“Because anyone can do this, there is a lack of knowledge around what is legal, what’s not legal, what is okay to be injected.
“These illegal toxins could have 50 units, 5,000 units or rat poison – there could be anything in there.”