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When push comes to shove, the question of whether British industry faces crippling tariffs on exports to the US or enjoys a unique opportunity to grow may come back to three seemingly random words: “melted and poured”.

To see why, let’s begin by recapping where we are at present in the soap opera of US trade policy.

Donald Trump has just doubled the extra tariffs charged on imports of steel and aluminium into the US from 25% to 50%. In essence, this would turn a painfully high tariff into something closer to an insurmountable economic wall (remember during the Cold War, the Iron Curtain equated to an effective tariff rate of just under 50%).

Anyway, the good news for UK steel producers is that they have been spared the 50% rate and will, for the time being, only have to pay the 25% rate.

But there is a sting in the tail: that stay of execution will only last until 9 July – on the basis of President Trump’s most recent pronouncements.

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Trump to double steel tariffs to 50%

For anyone following these events from the corner of their eyes, this might all sound a little odd. After all, didn’t Sir Keir Starmer announce only a few weeks ago that British steel and aluminium makers would be able to enjoy not 25% but 0% tariffs with America, thanks to his bold new trade agreement with the US? Well, yes. But the prime minister wasn’t being entirely clear about what that meant in practice.

Because the reality is that every trade agreement works more or less as follows: politicians negotiate a “heads of terms” agreement – a vague set of principles and red lines. There then follows a period of horse-trading and negotiation to nail down the actual details and turn it into a black and white piece of law.

In this case, when the PM and president made their big announcement 28 days ago, they had only agreed on the “heads of terms”. The small print was yet to be completed.

Right now, we are still in the horse-trading phase. Negotiators from the UK and the US are meeting routinely to try and nail down the small print. And that process is taking longer than many had expected. To see why, it’s worth drilling a little bit into the details.

The trade deal committed to allowing some cars to pass into the US at a 10% rate and to protecting some pharmaceutical trade, as well as allowing some steel and aluminium into the US at a zero tariff rate.

When it comes to cars, there are some nuances about which kind of cars the deal covers. Something similar goes for pharmaceuticals. Things get even knottier when you drill into the detail on steel.

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The role of steel in the UK economy

You see, one of the things the White House is nervous about is the prospect that Britain might become a kind of assembly point for steel from other countries around the world – that you could just ship some steel to Britain, get it pressed or rolled or worked over and then sent across to the US with those 0% tariffs. So the US negotiators are insisting that only steel that is “melted and poured” in the UK (in other words, smelted in a furnace) is covered by the trade deal.

That’s fine for some producers but not for others. One of Britain’s biggest steel exporters is Tata Steel, which makes a lot of steel that gets turned into tin cans you find on American supermarket shelves (not to mention piping used by the oil trade). Up until recently, that steel was indeed “melted and poured” from the blast furnaces at Port Talbot.

But Tata shut down those blast furnaces last year, intending to replace them with cleaner electric arc furnaces. And in the intervening period, it’s importing raw steel instead from the Netherlands and India and then running it through its mills.

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Or consider the situation at British Steel. There in Scunthorpe they are melting and pouring the steel from iron made in their blast furnaces – but now ponder this. While the company has been semi-nationalised by the government, it is still technically a Chinese business, owned by Jingye. In other words, its steel might technically count as benefiting China – which is something the White House is even more sensitive about.

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You see how this is all suddenly becoming a bit more complicated than it might at first have looked? This helps to explain why the negotiations are taking longer than expected.

But this brings us to the big problem. The White House has indicated that Britain will only be spared that 50% tariff rate provided the trade deal is finalised by 9 July. That gives the negotiators another month and a bit. That might sound like a lot, but now consider that that would be one of the fastest announcement-to-completion rates ever achieved in any trade negotiations in modern history.

There’s no guarantee Britain will actually get this deal done in time for that deadline – though insiders tell me they think they could be able to finalise it in a piecemeal fashion: the cars one week, steel another, pharmaceuticals another. Either way, the heat is on. Just when you thought Britain was in the safe zone, it stands on the edge of jeopardy all over again.

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All energy suppliers to offer lower standing charge tariff by January, regulator plans

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All energy suppliers to offer lower standing charge tariff by January, regulator plans

All household energy suppliers in Britain should introduce at least one lower standing charge tariff by the end of January, according to plans set out by the industry regulator.

Ofgem, which has been considering complaints that low energy users are unfairly penalised by the fees, says it is aiming to give consumers more choice.

But it admitted that the move was unlikely to reduce overall bills as reduced standing charges would likely be reflected in higher charges for units of energy used.

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Standing charges are fixed daily fees added to unit prices households pay for gas and electricity.

They are designed to cover costs of connecting to the energy system and investment in new infrastructure.

The latter element is being cited as an increasing threat to bill levels given the need to prepare the electricity network for the green energy future demanded by the government.

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Ofgem dropped initial plans that could have seen the charges ditched entirely for some energy deals, in return for customers paying higher unit prices instead.

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Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “We’ve listened to thousands of consumers that wanted to see changes to the standing charge and taken action.

“We have carefully considered how we can offer more choice on how they pay these fixed costs, however we have taken care to ensure we don’t make some customers worse off.

“After examining all the options available to us, we believe that the right way forward is to require all major suppliers to offer at least one tariff with a lower standing charge.

“This will deliver the choice we know customers want, without having a detrimental impact on customers that have high energy needs.”

But he added: “We cannot remove these charges, we can only move costs around.

“These changes would give households the choice they have asked for, but it’s important that everyone carefully considers what’s right for them as these tariffs are unlikely to reduce bills on their own.”

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Government costs to raise bills from October

A final decision is due by the end of the year and could be introduced from late January.

It’s described by the regulator as a short-term measure as a review is carried out over how to best pay for the grid upgrades needed, including storage.

The move was announced as around 34 million households prepare for a 2% rise in the energy price cap from 1 October.

The 20 million on a fixed rate tariff will not be affected by the shift.

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While high wholesale costs for gas have driven bills up sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the costs of government policy are making up a greater proportion of bills for both households and businesses.

The expansion of the warm home discount was the main factor behind October’s cap increase.

Emily Seymour, Which? Energy editor, said of the standing charges proposal: “For most of us, energy unit rates will make up the majority of our bill and standing charges will be a low proportion of the total.

“But for very low energy users, the daily standing charge will make up a larger amount of your bill and you could save money with one of these new tariffs as you will pay a lower standing charge every day.

“To figure out which type of energy tariff is best for them, people should look at their annual energy usage to see how much of it is typically made up of standing charges and how much is energy unit costs to see whether their usage is low enough to benefit from these new tariffs.”

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Jaguar Land Rover production shutdown after cyber attack extended to 1 October

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Jaguar Land Rover production shutdown after cyber attack extended to 1 October

Britain’s largest car manufacturer, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), faces a prolonged shutdown of its global operations after the company announced an extension of the current closure, which began on 31 August, to at least 1 October.

The extension will cost JLR tens of millions of pounds a day in lost revenue, raise major concerns about companies and jobs in the supply chain, and raise further questions about the vulnerability of UK industry to cyber assaults.

A spokesperson said of the move: “We have made this decision to give clarity for the coming week as we build the timeline for the phased restart of our operations and continue our investigation.

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“Our teams continue to work around the clock alongside cybersecurity specialists, the NCSC and law enforcement to ensure we restart in a safe and secure manner.

“Our focus remains on supporting our customers, suppliers, colleagues, and our retailers who remain open. We fully recognise this is a difficult time for all connected with JLR and we thank everyone for their continued support and patience.”

More than 33,000 people work directly for JLR in the UK, many of them employed on assembly lines in the West Midlands, the largest of which is in Solihull, and a plant at Halewood on Merseyside.

An estimated 200,000 more are employed by several hundred companies in the supply chain, who face a prolonged interruption to trade with what for many will be their largest client.

The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its closure, and no incentive to resume until it is clear when it will be back in production.

Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.

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Another quarter are expected to make decisions this week, following JLR’s previous announcement that production would be paused until at least Wednesday.

JLR, which produces the Jaguar, Range Rover and Land Rover marques, has also been forced to halt production and assembly at facilities in China, Slovakia, India and Brazil after its IT systems were effectively disabled by the cyber attack.

JLR’s Solihull plant has been running short shifts with skeleton staff, with some teams understood to be carrying out basic maintenance while the production lines stand idle, including painting floors.

Among workers who had finished a half-shift last Friday, there was resignation to the uncertainty. “We have been told not to talk about it, and even if we could, we don’t know what’s happening,” said one.

Calls for support

The government has faced calls from unions to introduce a furlough-style scheme to protect jobs in the supply chain, but with JLR generating profits of £2.2bn last year, the company will face pressure to support its suppliers.

Industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said while government support should be the last resort, it should not be off the table.

“Whatever happens to JLR will reverberate through the supply chain,” chief executive Mike Hawes told Sky News.

“There are a huge number of suppliers in the UK, a mixture of large multinationals, but also a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises, and those are the ones who are most at risk. Some of them, maybe up to a quarter, have already had to lay off people. There’ll be another further 20-25% considering that in the next few days and weeks.

“It’s a very high bar for the government to intervene, but without the supply chain, you don’t have the major manufacturers and you don’t have an industry.”

What happened to the IT system?

JLR, owned by Indian conglomerate Tata, has provided no detail of the nature of the attack, but it is presumed to be a ransomware assault similar to that which debilitated Marks and Spencer and the Co-Op earlier this year.

As well as interrupting vehicle production, dealers have been unable to register vehicles or order spare parts, and even diagnostic software for analysing individual vehicles has been affected.

Last week, it said it was conducting a “forensic” investigation and considering how to stage the “controlled restart” of global production.

Speculation has centred on the vulnerability of IT support desks to surreptitious activity from hackers posing as employees to access passwords, as well as ‘phishing’ or other digital means of accessing systems.

In September 2023, JLR outsourced its IT and digital services to Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also a Tata-owned company, intended, it said, to “transform, simplify, and help manage its digital estate, and build a new future-ready, strategic technology architecture”.

Resilience risks

Three months earlier, TCS extended an existing agreement with M&S, saying it would “improve resilience and pace of innovation, and drive sustainable growth.”

Officials from the National Cyber Security Centre are thought to be assisting JLR with their investigations, while officials and ministers from the Department for Business and International Trade have been kept informed of the situation.

Liam Byrne, a Birmingham MP and chair of the Business and Trade Select Committee, said the JLR closure raises concerns about the resilience of UK business.

“British business is now much more vulnerable for two reasons. One, many of these cyber threats have got bad states behind them. Russia, North Korea, Iran. These are serious players.

“Second, the attack surface that business is exposed to is now much bigger, because their digital operations are much bigger. They’ll be global organisations. They might have their IT outsourced in another country. So the vulnerability is now much greater than in the past.”

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Rachel Reeves urged to cut national insurance and hike income tax in upcoming budget

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Rachel Reeves urged to cut national insurance and hike income tax in upcoming budget

Rachel Reeves has been urged by a think tank to cut national insurance and increase income tax to create a “level playing field” and protect workers’ pay.

The Resolution Foundation said the chancellor should send a “decisive signal” that she will make “tough decisions” on tax.

Ms Reeves is expected to outline significant tax rises in the upcoming budget in November.

The Resolution Foundation has suggested these changes should include a 2p cut to national insurance as well as a 2p rise in income tax, which Adam Corlett, its principal economist, said “should form part of wider efforts to level the playing field on tax”.

The think tank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would help to address “unfairness” in the tax system.

As more people pay income tax than national insurance, including pensioners and landlords, the think tank estimates the switch would go some way in raising the £20bn in tax it thinks would be needed by 2029/2030 to offset increased borrowing costs, flat growth and new spending commitments. Other estimates go as high as £51bn.

Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News
Image:
Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News

‘Significant tax rises needed’

Another proposal by the think tank would see a gradual lowering of the threshold at which businesses pay VAT from £90,000 to £30,000, as this would help “promote fair competition” and raise £2bn by the end of the decade.

The Resolution Foundation also recommends increasing the tax on dividends, addressing a “worrying” growth in unpaid corporation tax from small businesses, applying a carbon charge to long-haul flights and shipping, and expanding taxation of sugar and salt.

“Policy U-turns, higher borrowing costs and lower productivity growth mean that the chancellor will need to act to avoid borrowing costs rising even further this autumn,” Mr Corlett said.

“Significant tax rises will be needed for the chancellor to send a clear signal that the UK’s public finances are under control.”

He added that while any tax rises are “likely to be painful”, Ms Reeves should do “all she can to avoid loading further pain onto workers’ pay packets”.

The government has repeatedly insisted it will keep its manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.

A Treasury spokesperson said in response to the think tank report it does “not comment on speculation around future changes to tax policy”.

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Chancellor urged to freeze alcohol duty

Meanwhile, Ms Reeves has been urged to freeze alcohol duty in the upcoming budget and not increase the rate of excise tax on alcohol until the end of the current parliament.

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), UK Spirits Alliance, Welsh Whisky Association, English Whisky Guild and Drinks Ireland said in an open letter that the current regime was “unfair” and has put a “strain” on members who are “struggling”.

The bodies are also urging Ms Reeves “to ensure there will be no further widening of the tax differential between spirits and other alcohol categories”.

A Treasury spokesperson said there will be no export duty, lower licensing fees, reduced tariffs, and a cap on corporation tax to make it easier for British distilleries to thrive.

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This comes as the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food inflation will rise and remain above 5% into next year if the retail industry is hit by further tax rises in the November budget.

The BRC voiced concerns that around 4,000 large shops could experience a rise in their business rates if they are included in the government’s new surtax for properties with a rateable value – an estimation of how much it would cost to rent a property for a year – over £500,000, and this could lead to price rises for consumers.

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Latest ONS figures put food inflation at 4.9%, the highest level since 2022/2023.

The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged last week amid fears that rising food prices were putting mounting pressure on headline inflation.

“The biggest risk to food prices would be to include large shops – including supermarkets – in the new surtax on large properties,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

She added: “Removing all shops from the surtax can be done without any cost to the taxpayer, and would demonstrate the chancellor’s commitment to bring down inflation.”

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