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When push comes to shove, the question of whether British industry faces crippling tariffs on exports to the US or enjoys a unique opportunity to grow may come back to three seemingly random words: “melted and poured”.

To see why, let’s begin by recapping where we are at present in the soap opera of US trade policy.

Donald Trump has just doubled the extra tariffs charged on imports of steel and aluminium into the US from 25% to 50%. In essence, this would turn a painfully high tariff into something closer to an insurmountable economic wall (remember during the Cold War, the Iron Curtain equated to an effective tariff rate of just under 50%).

Anyway, the good news for UK steel producers is that they have been spared the 50% rate and will, for the time being, only have to pay the 25% rate.

But there is a sting in the tail: that stay of execution will only last until 9 July – on the basis of President Trump’s most recent pronouncements.

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Trump to double steel tariffs to 50%

For anyone following these events from the corner of their eyes, this might all sound a little odd. After all, didn’t Sir Keir Starmer announce only a few weeks ago that British steel and aluminium makers would be able to enjoy not 25% but 0% tariffs with America, thanks to his bold new trade agreement with the US? Well, yes. But the prime minister wasn’t being entirely clear about what that meant in practice.

Because the reality is that every trade agreement works more or less as follows: politicians negotiate a “heads of terms” agreement – a vague set of principles and red lines. There then follows a period of horse-trading and negotiation to nail down the actual details and turn it into a black and white piece of law.

In this case, when the PM and president made their big announcement 28 days ago, they had only agreed on the “heads of terms”. The small print was yet to be completed.

Right now, we are still in the horse-trading phase. Negotiators from the UK and the US are meeting routinely to try and nail down the small print. And that process is taking longer than many had expected. To see why, it’s worth drilling a little bit into the details.

The trade deal committed to allowing some cars to pass into the US at a 10% rate and to protecting some pharmaceutical trade, as well as allowing some steel and aluminium into the US at a zero tariff rate.

When it comes to cars, there are some nuances about which kind of cars the deal covers. Something similar goes for pharmaceuticals. Things get even knottier when you drill into the detail on steel.

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The role of steel in the UK economy

You see, one of the things the White House is nervous about is the prospect that Britain might become a kind of assembly point for steel from other countries around the world – that you could just ship some steel to Britain, get it pressed or rolled or worked over and then sent across to the US with those 0% tariffs. So the US negotiators are insisting that only steel that is “melted and poured” in the UK (in other words, smelted in a furnace) is covered by the trade deal.

That’s fine for some producers but not for others. One of Britain’s biggest steel exporters is Tata Steel, which makes a lot of steel that gets turned into tin cans you find on American supermarket shelves (not to mention piping used by the oil trade). Up until recently, that steel was indeed “melted and poured” from the blast furnaces at Port Talbot.

But Tata shut down those blast furnaces last year, intending to replace them with cleaner electric arc furnaces. And in the intervening period, it’s importing raw steel instead from the Netherlands and India and then running it through its mills.

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Or consider the situation at British Steel. There in Scunthorpe they are melting and pouring the steel from iron made in their blast furnaces – but now ponder this. While the company has been semi-nationalised by the government, it is still technically a Chinese business, owned by Jingye. In other words, its steel might technically count as benefiting China – which is something the White House is even more sensitive about.

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You see how this is all suddenly becoming a bit more complicated than it might at first have looked? This helps to explain why the negotiations are taking longer than expected.

But this brings us to the big problem. The White House has indicated that Britain will only be spared that 50% tariff rate provided the trade deal is finalised by 9 July. That gives the negotiators another month and a bit. That might sound like a lot, but now consider that that would be one of the fastest announcement-to-completion rates ever achieved in any trade negotiations in modern history.

There’s no guarantee Britain will actually get this deal done in time for that deadline – though insiders tell me they think they could be able to finalise it in a piecemeal fashion: the cars one week, steel another, pharmaceuticals another. Either way, the heat is on. Just when you thought Britain was in the safe zone, it stands on the edge of jeopardy all over again.

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Trump’s son-in-law Kushner takes stake in UK lender OakNorth

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Trump's son-in-law Kushner takes stake in UK lender OakNorth

The private equity firm set up by Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, is to take a stake in OakNorth, the British-based lender which has set its sights on a rapid expansion in the US.

Sky News has learnt that Affinity Partners, which has amassed billions of dollars in assets under management, has signed a deal to acquire an 8% stake in OakNorth.

The deal is expected to be concluded in the coming weeks, industry sources said on Friday.

Mr Kushner established Affinity Partners in 2021 after leaving his role as an adviser to President Trump during his first term in the White House.

He is married to Ivanka, the president’s daughter.

Affinity manages money for a range of investors including the sovereign wealth funds of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Insiders said that Affinity Partners was buying the OakNorth stake from an unidentified existing investor in the digital bank.

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The valuation at which the transaction was taking place was unclear, although OakNorth was valued at $2.8bn in its most recent funding round in 2019.

OakNorth, which was founded by Rishi Khosla, is targeting substantial loan growth in the US in the coming years.

Earlier this year, it agreed to buy Community Unity Bank (CUB), which is based in Birmingham, Michigan, in an all-share deal.

The transaction is awaiting regulatory approval.

OakNorth began lending in the US in 2023 and has since made roughly $1.3bn of loans.

The bank is chaired by the former City watchdog chair Lord Turner, and is among a group of digital-only British banks which are expected to explore stock market listings in the next few years.

Monzo, Revolut and Starling Bank are all likely to float by the end of 2028, although London is far from certain to be the destination for all of them.

Similarly, OakNorth’s ambition to grow its US presence means it is likely to be advised by bankers that New York is a more logical listing venue for the business.

Launched in 2015, the bank is among a group of lenders founded after the 2008 financial crisis.

Its UK clients include F1 Arcade and Ultimate Performance, both of which have themselves expanded into the US market.

Its existing backers include the giant Japanese investor SoftBank, GIC, the Singaporean state fund, and Toscafund, the London-based asset management firm.

Since its launch, OakNorth has lent around £12.5bn and boasts an industry-leading loan default ratio.

Last year, it paid out just over £30m to shareholders in its maiden dividend payment.

OakNorth has been growing rapidly, saying this year that it had recorded pre-tax profits of £214.8m in 2024, up from £187.3m the previous year.

It made more than £2.1bn of new loans last year.

On Friday, a spokesperson for OakNorth declined to comment.

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Government will not offer bailout to UK’s largest bioethanol plant

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Government will not offer bailout to UK's largest bioethanol plant

The UK’s largest bioethanol plant is set for closure with the loss of 160 jobs after the government confirmed it would not offer a bailout deal to the facility in Lincolnshire. 

Owners Vivergo, a subsidiary of Associated British Foods, had warned that the plant would close without government support, and sources at the company have told Sky News the wind-down process is now likely to begin.

An ABF spokesperson, which also owns Primark, said the government’s decision was “deeply regrettable” and it had “chosen not to support a key national asset”.

They added that the government had “thrown away billions in potential growth in the Humber and a sovereign capability in clean fuels that had the chance to lead the world”.

Vivergo have blamed the UK’s trade deal with the United States, which ended a 19% tariff on imported ethanol, for making the plant unviable.

Ethanol tariffs were cut along with those on beef as part of the UK-US deal, which focused on reducing or removing Donald Trump’s import taxes on UK cars and aerospace parts.

The plant, which converts wheat into the fuel typically added to petrol to reduce carbon emissions, was already losing £3m a month before the trade deal, with industrial energy prices, the highest among developed economies, cited as a major factor.

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Vivergo and ABF have warned of the threat to the plant since the spring, but had hoped negotiations with the government would lead to an improved offer by the end of the week. On Friday morning, they were told there would be no bailout.

Government sources said they had employed external consultants to provide advice, and pointed out that the plant had not been profitable since 2011.

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A government spokesman said: “Direct funding would not provide value for the UK taxpayer or solve the long-term problems of the bioethanol industry.”

“This government will always take decisions in the national interest. That’s why we negotiated a landmark deal with the US which protected hundreds of thousands of jobs in sectors like auto and aerospace.

“We have worked closely with the companies since June to understand the financial challenges they have faced over the past decade, and have taken the difficult decision not to offer direct funding as it would not provide value for the taxpayer or solve the long-term problems the industry faces.

“We recognise this is a difficult time for the workers and their families and we will work with trade unions, local partners and the companies to support them through this process.

“We also continue to work up proposals that ensure the resilience of our CO2 supply in the long-term in consultation with the sector.”

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said the government’s decision not to provide support to the UK’s bioethanol industry was “short-sighted” and “totally disregards the benefits the domestic bioethanol sector will bring to jobs and energy security”.

“Once again, the government’s total lack of a plan to support oil and gas workers as the industry transitions is glaring,” Ms Graham added.

GMB Union’s Charlotte Brumpton-Childs said the closure of the Hull and Redcar bioethanol plants would result in “working people losing their livelihoods”, adding that this was the impact of tariffs and trade deals.

“They’re not numbers in a spreadsheet. These are lives put on hold and communities potentially devastated,” she said.

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Vivergo: How US-UK trade deal could bring about collapse of huge renewable energy plant in Hull

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Vivergo: How US-UK trade deal could bring about collapse of huge renewable energy plant in Hull

The smell of yeast still hangs in the air at the Vivergo plant in Hull but the machines have fallen quiet. 

More than 100 lorries usually pass through here each day, carrying 3,000 tonnes of wheat. It is milled, fermented and distilled. The final product is bioethanol, a renewable fuel that is then blended into E10 petrol.

This is a vast operation. It took several years to build, with considerable investment, but it is on the verge of closing down. Management and staff are holding out for a last-minute reprieve from the government but time is running out.

It’s been a turbulent journey. The plant was already being annihilated by US rivals, losing about £3m a month. Vivergo and Ensus, based in Teesside, blamed regulations that enable US companies to earn double subsidies.

They were pushing for regulatory change but then a killer blow: The US-UK trade deal, which allows 1.4 billion litres of American ethanol into the UK tariff-free (down from 19%).

“We’ve effectively given the whole of the UK market to the US producers,” said Ben Hackett, managing director at Vivergo.

“If we were to have the same support that the US industry has, if we could use genetically modified crops, we wouldn’t need that tariff. We would be able to compete. If we had the same energy costs. We wouldn’t need those tariffs.”

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The government has the weekend to come up with a plan that could keep the business running. If it fails, Vivergo will begin issuing redundancy notices to its 160 staff.

Ben Hackett
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Ben Hackett

It’s a devastating prospect for workers, many of them live in Hull and are nervous about alternative opportunities in the area.

Mike Walsh, a logistics manager who has been working at the plant for 14 years, said: “It’s not a great place to be at the moment. It’s a very well paid, very high-skilled role and they’ve (Vivergo) given everybody an opportunity in an area that doesn’t pay that well…. The jobs market isn’t as good as what people would like. So it does impact the local economy.”

He called on the government to “help us, save us, give this industry a future”.

His colleague Claire Wood, lead productions engineer, said: “I moved here after a career in oil and gas for 10 years, partly because I want to be part of the transition to renewable fuels. I can see so much potential here and it’s absolutely devastating to know that this place might be closed very, very shortly and that all that potential just goes away.”

Thousands more could be affected. Haulage companies may have to lay off truck drivers and farmers could also suffer a blow.

Vivergo makes bioethanol using wheat. That wheat is bought from farms from Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

Claire Wood
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Claire Wood

The National Farmers Union has sounded the alarm, saying: “Biofuels are extremely important for the crops sector, and their domestic demand of up to two million tonnes can be very important to balance supply and demand and to produce up to one million tonnes of animal feed as a by-product.”

Another bioproduct is carbon dioxide. The gas can be captured and used to put the fizz in drinks or injected into packaging to preserve food.

If Vivergo and Ensus were to go, Britain would lose as much as 80% of its output of carbon dioxide. Supplies are already tight across Europe, meaning this decision could compound shortages across a range of sectors, from meat-packing to healthcare.

The industry is calling on the government to help. Vivergo says it needs temporary financial support but that the government must create a regulatory and commercial environment in which it can thrive.

It says rules that award double subsidies to companies that use waste product in their bioethanol must be changed. At present, these rules are being used by US companies that make ethanol from Uldr – a by-product of processing corn. They argue this is not a genuine waste product.

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Another option is to grow the market. Industry leaders are calling on ministers to increase the mandated renewable fuel content in petrol from 10% to 15% and for an expansion into aviation fuels. That would allow British companies to carve out a space.

The government has been locked in talks with the company since June.

It said: “We will continue to take proactive steps to address the long-standing challenges it faces and remain committed to a way forward that protects supply chains, jobs and livelihoods.”

However, the time for talking is almost over.

Mr Hackett said he had no idea how the government would respond but he was firm with his stance, saying: “In times of global uncertainty, losing that energy certainty and supply from the UK is a problem.

“I think what they’re missing out on is the future growth agenda. We’re the foundation on which the green industrial strategy can be built. We make bioethanol that today decarbonises transport. Tomorrow it will decarbonise marine. It will decarbonise aviation.”

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