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A college football game guarantees you certain things. You will get the fight songs. You will get tailgate smells. And you know that, no matter what game you’re attending — maybe it’s a storied rivalry game such as the Iron Bowl or Red River, maybe it’s a Friday night Louisville-Syracuse affair, and maybe it’s even a Division III game like Trinity-Millsaps — you might see something you have never seen, something you couldn’t have envisioned, something you’ll be talking about 25 years later.

Below are the top 25 plays of the 2000s, as voted on by ESPN college football writers. Some decided national titles, some provided all-time rivalry bragging rights, and all of them are stuck in our memories forever. This sport puts us through a good amount of nonsense sometimes, but the games, and the greatest plays, make everything worth it.

Eight ESPN writers and two editors nominated the top plays since 2000. Fifty-one plays were nominated and the eight writers ranked plays from 1 to 25, with 25 points awarded for first-place votes, 24 for second place and continuing until 1 point was awarded for a play voted at No. 25. Below is the result of those votes.

1. Kick-six | Nov. 30, 2013

The play was stunning, one of the most improbable endings in college football history, as Auburn’s Chris Davis raced 109 yards for a touchdown after Alabama kicker Adam Griffith was short on a 57-yard field goal attempt with one second remaining in the 2013 Iron Bowl. Alabama coach Nick Saban argued to have one second put back on the clock after Tide running back T.J. Yeldon was knocked out of bounds. Griffith was sent in to try the long field goal with the score tied 28-28 after Cade Foster had already missed three field goals. After fielding the kick deep in the end zone, Davis tiptoed down the left sideline before breaking into the open field and into the end zone, where he was mobbed by teammates, cameramen and fans.

The loss kept Saban and the previously unbeaten Crimson Tide from playing for what would have been their third straight national championship. Auburn advanced to the final BCS national championship game, where the Tigers in Gus Malzahn’s first season as coach lost to Florida State in the final seconds.

It’s a play that will live in the hearts of Auburn fans, who can still hear the school’s radio play-by-play announcer, the late Rod Bramblett, screaming “Auburn’s going to win the football game!” as Davis crossed the goal line. — Chris Low


2. Boise State trickeration | Jan. 1, 2007

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Ian Johnson celebrates 10 year anniversary of Boise State trick play, proposal

Ian Johnson reflects on the glorious moment when he successfully pulled off the “Statue of Liberty” trick play for Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl followed by a spur of the moment proposal to girlfriend Chrissy Popadics.

Boise State’s “hook and ladder” and “Statue of Liberty” plays go together — like Ian Johnson and Chrissy Popadics. With Oklahoma leading 35-28 late in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State faced fourth-and-18 from midfield when Broncos coach Chris Petersen called for the “hook and ladder.” Jared Zabransky completed a pass to Drisan James, who lateralled the ball to receiver Jerard Rabb and he went 50 yards to tie the score at 35 with seven seconds remaining.

The Broncos trailed 42-41 in overtime when they lined up for a 2-point conversion. Zabransky took the snap and kept the ball behind his back, where it was grabbed by Johnson, a running back, on the “Statue of Liberty” play. Johnson then ran uncontested to the corner of the end zone to give the Broncos the stunning 43-42 win. After a wild celebration, Johnson got on one knee and proposed to Popadics, who tearfully accepted in front of a sellout crowd and a national television audience. — Heather Dinich


3. Invincibowl | Jan. 4, 2006

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Rewind: Texas upsets USC in Rose Bowl

On Jan. 4, 2006, Texas QB Vince Young orchestrated a touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter in the Rose Bowl against USC to knock off the No. 1 team in the nation and win the BCS National Championship.

Vince Young didn’t win the 2005 Heisman Trophy. In fact, USC running back Reggie Bush received 705 more first-place votes. But the Texas quarterback still produced arguably the best individual season this century, culminating with one of college football’s most memorable all-time plays.

Trailing in the Rose Bowl with a national championship on the line, the Longhorns faced fourth-and-5 in the waning seconds against the Trojans, the defending national champs. But Young scrambled right, then dashed past the pylon for the game-winning touchdown, lifting the unbeaten Longhorns to their first national title in 35 years. — Jake Trotter


4. Tua’s toss | Jan. 8, 2018

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Alabama wins title on Tagovailoa’s walk-off TD pass

Tua Tagovailoa throws a perfect pass to DeVonta Smith for a 41-yard TD in OT, giving the Crimson Tide their fifth national championship under Nick Saban.

The national title game at the end of the 2017 season came at you in waves. Georgia dominated and led 13-0 at halftime. Alabama subbed in freshman Tua Tagovailoa and charged back to tie the score, but the Tide missed an easy field goal attempt at the buzzer. Georgia moved backward in OT but nailed a 51-yard field goal. Tagovailoa took an atrocious sack and lost 16 yards. Bama had control but lost it, and now Georgia was about to finally topple the Tide.

And then, without a timeout and with the building still buzzing, Tagovailoa calmly looked off the safeties, then fired back to a fellow freshman for the most thrilling, breathless ending to a national title game in the College Football Playoff era. — Bill Connelly


5. ‘The Horror’ | Sept. 1, 2007

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Relive Appalachian State’s historic upset over Michigan

On September 1, 2007, Appalachian State entered the Big House as heavy underdogs and came out victorious in a thriller.

There have been major upsets in this sport, but few shook the earth like the day Appalachian State went into Michigan Stadium and stunned the winningest program of all time. Michigan entered the 2007 season ranked No. 5, and though Appalachian State had won consecutive national titles in college football’s second rung, Division I-AA (now FCS), the Vegas books didn’t place a line on the game.

A Division I-AA team had never beaten a ranked Division I-A team, and Michigan had never played an I-AA opponent. But coach Jerry Moore’s team led 28-17 at halftime before Michigan stormed back to lead 32-31 after a 2-point conversion with 4:36 left. Then, Appalachian State drove downfield for a field goal. Michigan amazingly reached field goal range on Chad Henne’s pass to Mario Manningham, but Appalachian State’s Corey Lynch stormed in to block Jason Gingell’s field goal attempt and raced downfield as time expired.

The words of Appalachian State radio broadcaster David Jackson resonate: “The Mountaineers have just beaten the Michigan Wolverines!” So do those of Michigan blogger Brian Cook, who simply referred to the game as, “The Horror.” — Adam Rittenberg


6. ‘Six’ | Nov. 1, 2008

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On this date: Crabtree’s clutch catch wins game for Texas Tech

On Nov. 1, 2008, Michael Crabtree catches a touchdown pass in the final seconds to win the game for Texas Tech over Texas.

No play represented the Air Raid’s playground-type simplicity better than four verticals, what architect Hal Mumme called “Six” because everyone ran deep for six points. Mike Leach, Mumme’s protégé, turned Texas Tech into giant-killers running the offense, and landed the Red Raiders’ biggest upset blow with that play after “College GameDay’s” first visit to Lubbock.

Trailing No. 1 Texas at home, 33-32, with eight seconds left, Graham Harrell threw a back-shoulder ball to Michael Crabtree at the Texas 6, and instead of stepping out of bounds with one second left, Crabtree broke a tackle, got six and ruined Texas’ national title hopes, cementing Texas Tech’s biggest win in school history on a magical night in Lubbock. — Dave Wilson


7. Prayer at Jordan-Hare | Nov. 16, 2013

The Kick-Six wouldn’t have been nearly as memorable had it not been for the Prayer at Jordan-Hare two weeks earlier. The Tigers were down to a fourth-and-18 gasp from their 27 when quarterback Nick Marshall launched a deep ball down the middle of the field. Georgia defensive backs Josh Harvey-Clemons and Tray Matthews were both in great position to break up the Hail Mary, and Matthews looked like he was going to intercept the pass.

But Harvey-Clemons tipped it to Auburn receiver Ricardo Louis, who bobbled it briefly on his fingertips and never broke stride for a 73-yard touchdown with 25 seconds remaining. Auburn’s miraculous 43-38 win paved the way for another miracle two Saturdays later against Alabama and ultimately an appearance in the 2013 national championship game. — Low


8. Surrender cobra | Oct. 17, 2015

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Flashback: Michigan State stuns Michigan on flubbed punt

On Oct. 17, 2015, Michigan punter Blake O’Neill bobbled a low snap and coughed up the ball, allowing Michigan State’s Jalen Watts-Jackson to scoop it up and score on the final play of the game.

The 2015 Michigan State-Michigan ending created a meme and popularized a phrase. The Wolverines led 23-21 with 10 seconds remaining. But punter Blake O’Neill muffed a low snap and Michigan State’s Jalen Watts-Jackson scooped it up. He raced into the end zone as time expired, giving the Spartans the improbable comeback victory.

The ESPN broadcast immediately panned to Michigan student Chris Baldwin, who had his hands on his head in disbelief, ultimately producing the most viral surrender cobra. Watts-Jackson broke his hip as he was tackled into the end zone. But he headed to the hospital as a Spartans legend. — Trotter


9. Superman | Oct. 6, 2001

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Williams’ Superman leap seals Oklahoma’s win

On Oct. 6, 2001, Roy Williams flies through the air and hits Texas QB Chris Simms, forcing an INT to Teddy Lehman to secure the Sooners’ win.

The “Superman” leap embodied Oklahoma’s dominance over Texas — and a five-game winning streak in the series — through the early 2000s. With the Longhorns pinned at their 2-yard line, co-defensive coordinators Mike Stoops and Brent Venables (now OU’s head coach) dialed up the “Slamdogs” blitz, calling for Williams to shoot through the gap between the left tackle and guard from the safety position.

Williams soared over the gap instead, crashing into the chest of quarterback Chris Simms. The collision popped the ball into the arms of linebacker Teddy Lehman, who waltzed into the end zone to seal a 14-3 victory. — Trotter


10. Champions* | Jan. 3, 2003

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Ohio State wins championship with help from questionable PI call

On Jan. 3, 2003, Chris Gamble can’t catch an overtime TD, but Miami is called for pass interference. Ohio State won the national championship in 2OT.

Perhaps the most questionable pass interference call in college football history, the penalty on Miami’s Glenn Sharpe in overtime in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl prevented the Hurricanes from repeating as national champions and cementing their dynasty. With one play left to keep their season alive, Ohio State quarterback Craig Krenzel dropped back to pass on fourth-and-3 from the 5-yard line, throwing for Chris Gamble in the end zone. The pass fell incomplete, and Miami players and staff ran onto the field in celebration. Except … Terry Porter, the field judge, threw a flag several seconds after the play ended, a delay that added to the mass confusion that followed and resulted in the widespread second-guessing of the call (for those outside Columbus, Ohio, that is).

The officials huddled and called pass interference on Sharpe. With a fresh set of downs, Ohio State scored to send the game into a second overtime and won the game 31-24. — Andrea Adelson


11. Clowney ‘car wreck’ | Jan. 1, 2013

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Flashback: Clowney’s massive hit sends RB’s helmet flying

Back in 2013, South Carolina’s Jadeveon Clowney knocked the helmet off Michigan’s Vincent Smith after a hard hit, causing a fumble that Clowney then recovered.

Jadeveon Clowney was a 6-foot-6, 274-pound, hulking defensive end who became the face of South Carolina’s renaissance under coach Steve Spurrier. He came to South Carolina as the nation’s top recruit and would leave as the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NFL draft. But his most memorable college play came in the 2013 Outback Bowl against Michigan, which led 22-21 midway through the fourth quarter.

Michigan had possession after a controversial first-down call on a fake punt, and gave the ball to Vincent Smith, its 5-foot-6, 175-pound running back. Clowney rumbled through Michigan’s line untouched and met Smith, who was just receiving the ball. Smith’s helmet and the ball went flying, and Clowney recovered. “It sounded like a car wreck,” South Carolina defensive tackle J.T. Surratt said. South Carolina won 33-28, and Clowney earned an ESPY for the hit. — Rittenberg


12. ‘Oh my gracious!’ | Nov. 10, 2012

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When Johnny Football took down Alabama

Revisit Texas A&M’s upset of No. 1 Alabama in 2012 and the game that turned Johnny Manziel into a legend.

In 2012, Johnny Manziel led Texas A&M into the SEC, and rolled into Tuscaloosa as 14-point underdogs to No. 1 Alabama. He left as Johnny Football, a Heisman favorite as just a redshirt freshman. Looking back, it was a star-studded affair: Coach Kevin Sumlin’s first-year offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, outdueled Nick Saban and Kirby Smart in a 29-24 upset, with Manziel completing 24 of 31 passes for 253 yards and two TDs, with another 18 carries for 92 yards. Manziel’s Heisman moment was cemented in the third quarter when he avoided a sack, bounced off an Alabama defender, bobbled the ball, caught it, rolled left and found Ryan Swope in the back of the end zone.

“Got him!” Verne Lundquist said as the play unfolded. “No they didn’t! Oh my gracious!” he exclaimed, and a legend was born. — Wilson


13. ‘Orange Crush’ | Jan. 9, 2017

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Watson hits Renfrow for game-winning TD in title game

On Jan. 9, 2017, Deshaun Watson puts Clemson ahead with a 2-yard touchdown to Hunter Renfrow to win the CFP National Championship.

The play forever known as “Orange Crush” delivered Clemson its second national title in school history in the 2017 national championship game and the first under coach Dabo Swinney. In an epic back-and-forth game, Alabama had scored to go ahead 31-28 with 2:07 left. Plenty of time remaining for the Tigers offense. Quarterback Deshaun Watson marched them down the field, reaching the 2-yard line with six seconds left.

Watson found Hunter Renfrow in the end zone for the winning score — thanks, in part, to a rub route Artavis Scott ran to give Renfrow just enough space to get open. Clemson scored with one second left to win 35-31. — Adelson


14. Bush Push | Oct. 15, 2005

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Notre Dame fan rushes the field before the game is over & Notre Dame loses

Notre Dame alum Dan Murphy recalls the time he rushed the field with his younger brother before the Notre Dame vs. USC “Bush Push” game was over.

On its own, the “Bush Push” of 2005 wasn’t something to marvel at. With top-ranked USC trailing Notre Dame 31-28 with seven seconds left in South Bend, Indiana, Trojans quarterback Matt Leinart — the reigning Heisman Trophy winner — appeared to have been stopped short on a surprising quarterback sneak attempt, only for Reggie Bush to shove him in the chest, propelling him across the goal line.

The push violated the NCAA rulebook, but was not penalized, giving USC a key win as it continued its march to the BCS National Championship game. — Bonagura


15. Reggie in the fog | Oct. 23, 2004

There could be a list of Reggie Bush’s best 25 plays at USC, but few are as iconic as his 65-yard punt return in the fog at Oregon State in 2004. Reser Stadium was a house of horrors for the Trojans over the years, and as the top-ranked Trojans clung to a one-point lead in the fourth quarter, Bush delivered.

He spun away from the first tackler, traversed back across the field before outrunning the OSU defenders to the end zone. — Bonagura


16. Jump pass I | Oct. 7, 2006

Only a freshman, Tim Tebow introduced himself to the college football world in 2006 as Florida won the first of two national championships over the next three seasons. He was primarily a short-yardage specialist that year at quarterback behind starter Chris Leak. Tebow’s first career touchdown pass came in a key 23-10 win over No. 9 LSU. He took the snap, started toward the line of scrimmage as if he was going to run and then went airborne, pump-faking, and lobbing a 1-yard touchdown pass to tight end Tate Casey in the back of the end zone.

Tebow won the Heisman Trophy the next year and then duplicated his jump pass as a junior with a game-sealing, 4-yard touchdown to David Nelson against Oklahoma to lead the Gators to the 2008 national championship. — Low


t17. Bluegrass Miracle | Nov. 9, 2002

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Will Muschamp recalls the emotional turn of the bluegrass miracle

Kentucky fans weren’t the only ones left shocked. Former LSU defensive coordinator Will Muschamp couldn’t believe what just happened on November 9, 2002.

“The most shocking, improbable, unbelievable sequence of events.” That’s how announcer Dave Neal described it. Hard to get more accurate than that. Devery Henderson couldn’t have just caught Marcus Randall’s Hail Mary bomb on the final play of LSU’s shocking 33-30 win over Kentucky — he was still more than 20 yards from the end zone when it came down, and he would have been tackled. Henderson needed the ball to pinball around for a moment before he finally secured it as he was racing past Kentucky’s last two defenders.

Kentucky had erased a late, 10-point deficit and hit the go-ahead field goal with just 11 seconds remaining. Wildcat players had already hit coach Guy Morriss with the Gatorade bath. And then LSU committed grand larceny with a 74-yard Hail Mary Plus. — Connelly


t17. Eight laterals of chaos | Oct. 31, 2015

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Top 10 finishes of 2015: Miami uses eight laterals on kickoff return TD to upset Duke

Top 10 finishes of 2015: Corn Elder took Miami’s eighth lateral of a wild final kickoff return and brought it back 75 yards for a touchdown that gave Miami a 30-27 victory over Duke.

Even now, what unfolded on Halloween night in 2015 in Durham, North Carolina, seems unfathomable. Duke took a 27-24 lead over Miami on a quarterback run with six seconds remaining. Then, chaos ensued. On the ensuing kickoff, Ross Martin squibbed the ball, and Dallas Crawford fielded it at the 25-yard line. From there, eight laterals: Crawford threw backward to Corn Elder, who tossed the ball to Jaquan Johnson as Duke defenders closed in. Johnson then tossed the ball to Mark Walton, who threw it to Johnson just as he was being taken to the ground. Johnson then flipped it to Tyre Brady, who sent it back to Elder at the 5-yard line. Elder gave it back to Crawford before giving it back to Elder.

At that point, Miami had blockers out in front and Elder had the speed to evade would-be tacklers and score in an improbable what-did-I-just-see moment. Officials picked up a flag that had been thrown earlier in the mayhem, and the touchdown stood. The ACC announced the following day that the officials botched the final play and it should not have counted. — Adelson


19. Reed wrestles it away | Nov. 10, 2001

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Flashback: Ed Reed strips ball from teammate for Hurricanes pick-six

After an interception, Ed Reed strips the ball from his teammate and takes it for a touchdown to seal Miami’s win vs. Boston College during the 2001 season.

With Miami clinging to a 12-7 lead with just over 20 seconds left in the game, Boston College quarterback Brian St. Pierre had the ball on the Canes’ 9-yard line. He tried to complete a pass to Ryan Read near the 2-yard line, but it was low and ricocheted off Miami cornerback Ed Rumph’s left knee.

Defensive tackle Matt Walters grabbed it at the 10 and rumbled 10 more yards before Reed took the ball from him and outraced a BC defender 80 yards to the end zone. What made this play so memorable was Reed’s vision and decision to wrestle the ball out of his 262-pound teammate’s hands to keep the interception return — and Miami’s chance at the national title — alive. — Dinich


20. ‘Gravedigger’ | Nov. 25, 2023

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Gravedigger: The improbable 4th-and-31 TD that saved Bama’s season

A look inside Alabama’s comeback to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl on an incredible 4th-and-31 touchdown.

The legendary plays in the Iron Bowl are too many to count, but Jalen Milroe-to-Isaiah Bond on fourth-and-goal from the 31 ranks with any of them. Auburn, suffering through a losing season in Hugh Freeze’s first year on the Plains, seemingly had the game won in what would have been a massive upset. With the Jordan-Hare Stadium crowd roaring, Alabama was pushed back to the 31 after initially having a first-and-goal from the 7. Only 43 seconds remained, and Auburn rushed just two defenders. Milroe stood in the pocket for five seconds before delivering a strike in the left corner of the end zone to a leaping Bond for the game-winning touchdown and a 27-24 win in what was Nick Saban’s final Iron Bowl.

“I’m not going to lie. Before I even caught the ball, I knew we’d won. As soon as it went in the air, I said, ‘Yeah, that’s going to be game,'” said Bond, revealing after the game that the play was called “Gravedigger.” — Low


21. Black 41 Flash Reverse Pass | Oct. 27, 2001

On his way to the Heisman Trophy in 2001, Nebraska quarterback Eric Crouch delivered one of the greatest plays in school history. His heroics mostly came from running the option, but on this play against Oklahoma, Crouch handed off the ball, peeled out into the flat and up the field as a receiver. The original ball carrier, Thunder Collins, handed it to Mike Stuntz on a reverse, and he hit Crouch sprinting down the sideline for a 63-yard touchdown.

The surprising playcall came with No. 2 Nebraska leading No. 3 Oklahoma in the fourth quarter and clinched the win. — Bonagura


22. 61-second spectacle | Oct. 27, 2007

Fifteen laterals, 61 yards, 61 seconds. This was the longest play on this list. Starting at the Trinity 39, the ball got to the Millsaps 42, then retreated to the Trinity 45, then moved back to the Millsaps 41, then retreated again to the Trinity 41, then moved from right to left, back and forth.

After more than 45 seconds, things got sloppy. The ball hit the ground a couple of times, the laterals grew less accurate … and Riley Curry, who had also caught the first, seventh and 11th laterals, picked up a bouncing ball and raced 34 yards for maybe the least likely touchdown of the 2000s. When we see teams attempting laterals that we know have no chance of working on the last play of a game, they’re doing it because, hey, it worked once, didn’t it? — Connelly


23. Nonsense masterpiece | Nov. 7, 2015

The game had already been a nonsense masterpiece before we got to overtime. We had already seen more than 1,100 yards of offense, 90 points and seven tying scores. Neither team had led by more than seven points. But Ole Miss finally had things under control: Chad Kelly’s touchdown run gave the Rebels the lead in overtime, and Arkansas faced a fourth-and-25. Ole Miss was about to win the game and, consequently, the SEC West.

Hunter Henry caught a pass well behind the line of scrimmage and, quickly hemmed in, had no choice but to lob it behind him. Somehow, after a deflection, it took exactly the bounce it needed to take, and Alex Collins caught the ball at the Ole Miss 42 with room to run and strolled for the first down. It was stunning. And the outcome was preordained from there: Drew Morgan scored, Brandon Allen converted the 2-pointer, and Bret Bielema’s Hogs had prevailed. — Connelly


24. Cam can | Oct. 23, 2010

Newton’s 49-yard touchdown run in the third quarter against LSU was deemed his Heisman moment the second he crossed the goal line, dragging All-American cornerback Patrick Peterson with him for the last 8 yards. Five LSU defenders failed to tackle Newton, including defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, as Newton ran down the right side of the field and through Mathieu’s knee-high tackle attempt.

Newton, 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, somehow steadied himself near the right hash mark, and in two more strides, cut sharply back to the middle of the field. This was one of the best run defenses in the SEC, and Newton blew right by it — and into college football history. — Dinich


25. Lamar Leap | Sept. 9, 2016

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How Lamar Jackson casually hurdled an opponent for an unreal TD

When Louisville QB Lamar Jackson had nowhere else to go he decided to hurdle over Syracuse defensive back Cordell Hudson.

Storylines often get set early in college football seasons, and on a Friday night in Week 2 of the 2016 campaign, Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson ensured that he would be the top story all fall. After an impressive freshman season in 2015, Jackson began the following year by setting ACC records for touchdowns accounted for (eight) and total offense (610 yards) in the opener against Charlotte. He then went to the Carrier Dome and rushed for four touchdowns, three in the first quarter.

But his most iconic play was the last scoring run, a 13-yarder in the second quarter. Jackson faked a handoff, sprinted to his left and hurdled over Syracuse defender Cordell Hudson, who lunged at him. The leap went viral and propelled Jackson toward winning the Heisman Trophy that fall. — Rittenberg

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NASCAR suspends Hill 1 race for intentional crash

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NASCAR suspends Hill 1 race for intentional crash

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — NASCAR on Tuesday suspended Austin Hill for one Xfinity Series race for intentionally crashing Aric Almirola at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Richard Childress Racing said Cup Series driver Austin Dillon will replace Hill in the Xfinity Series race at Iowa this weekend.

The suspension also stripped Hill of the 21 playoff points he has earned in 2025 and prohibits him from earning points ahead of the playoffs under a new rule made before the start of the 2025 season. Hill will have to apply for a waiver to retain his playoff eligibility.

Prior to the suspension, Hill’s playoff points trailed only Connor Zilisch (29) and Justin Allgaier (22). But that count resets to zero, making his margin of error during the first playoff round virtually none.

Hill is ranked seventh in the Xfinity Series standings with three victories. He will likely lose position in the standings with the suspension, and only drivers ranked in the top 12 make the Xfinity playoffs.

Hill argued the contact with Almirola on Saturday was not intentional but NASCAR gave him a five-lap penalty. Hill went into an expletive-filled tirade after being told he was penalized.

The two were in the top-five at Indy when Almirola made contact to move Hill up the race track. Hill corrected his car and then turned left to hook Almirola in the right rear.

Almirola spun and crashed into the outside wall. Hill finished 34th and five laps down. Almirola finished 35th.

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MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Division rivals eye Luis Robert

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MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Division rivals eye Luis Robert

The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?

Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.

More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Ranking traded prospects

Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel

This week’s MLB trade deadline buzz

July 29

Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.

A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names that have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney


Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney


Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.

But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he’s allowed a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” said one evaluator. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney


Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers


Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers


Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could make a killing in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current asking prices as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney


Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney


July 28

Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.

White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel


Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.

Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge’s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo


Yankees in on Bader, Slater? The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Olney


Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney


Yankees eyeing a few Bucs: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.

As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.

New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.

Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo


July 27

Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.

Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers


Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.

Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers


The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.

Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez


Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.

The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel


Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney


Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney


Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney


Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney


Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.

The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.

The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.

The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney

Completed deal tracker

Click here for grades for every major deal

Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins

The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.


Tigers bolster pitching staff

The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.


Braves add veteran rotation arm

The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.


Yankees make another deal for infield depth

The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.


Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs

The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.


Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies

The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.


Mets get bullpen help from O’s

The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.


Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor

The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.

Previous deadline buzz

July 25 updates

Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney


Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.

The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.

The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.

At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.

Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez


What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney


How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.

The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.

The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney


White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers


July 24 updates

Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers


July 23 updates

Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.

The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo


A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney


How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers


Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.

The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez


July 22 updates

An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney


Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney


Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney


Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers


How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.

Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney


What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.

But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.

It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez


Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers


Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.

But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney


Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers


Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.

The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez


Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney

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Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates

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Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates

No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.

In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.

Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.

In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!

The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?

Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains

When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.

These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.

In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:

2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)

2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)

From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”

Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.

This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.


2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)

Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”

Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.


2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)

2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)

2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)

From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”

Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.

I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.


2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)

From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”

Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.


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Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’

Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.

2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)

From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”

This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!

With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.


2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)

From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”

It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.

Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble

In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.

Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:

2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)

2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)

From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”

Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.


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FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab

Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.

2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)

Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”

This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.


2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)

From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”

Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.


2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)

From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”

The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.

I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.


2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)

Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”

In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.

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