With one double-overtime loss to Oregon on Saturday, Penn State dropped out of the latest College Football Playoff projection, landing in the dreaded No. 12 spot, where it would be replaced by the fourth and fifth conference champions.

The Nittany Lions are now officially on the bubble — and under pressure to win at Ohio State on Nov. 1.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

This week, we added a fourth category: On the cusp. These are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers dropped out of the top 12 projection following their loss to Ole Miss because they didn’t look like a playoff team: 2-of-11 on third downs, 59 rushing yards, seven penalties and one turnover. The LSU defense allowed 13 explosive plays, its most in a single game since the 2024 season opener against USC. Offensively, LSU managed just three explosive plays — its fewest in a game since 2018. Still, it was a close loss on the road, and LSU has plenty of chances to get back into the race. Unless it continues to play like that. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU’s chances of reaching the SEC title game dropped to 2.9%, the 10th-best chance in the league. If the Tigers are not in the conference championship game, they could still earn an at-large bid, but they have the No. 12 toughest remaining schedule. That includes trips to ranked opponents Vandy, Alabama and Oklahoma.

The enigma: Vanderbilt. The perception of Vanderbilt is slowly changing — from an academic school with a football team, to an academic school with a spoiler team, to … hey, can these guys beat Bama again?! The Commodores are 5-0 for the second time in 80 years. Vandy beat the Tide 40-35 last year in Nashville. This year, the Commodores have scored at least 55 points in each of their past two games, and they’ve scored at least 30 in all five wins, their longest single-season streak since joining the SEC in 1948. A lot of Vandy’s success stems from the grit and personality of its quarterback, Diego Pavia, who accounted for six touchdowns against Utah State last week. This is where Vandy’s true test begins, though, as the Commodores have the No. 2 toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll face four straight ranked opponents, starting with Bama. ESPN’s FPI gives Vandy less than a 50% chance to beat Alabama, Texas and Tennessee — all three road games. If the Commodores can defy the odds in just one of those — and finish 10-2 — they could have a chance at an at-large bid.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: LSU

Work to do: Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina

Big Ten

Spotlight: Penn State. At No. 12 in this week’s weekly projection, Penn State would be bumped out of the CFP field during the seeding process to include Memphis, the projected champion from the American, and the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Penn State dropped for several reasons: It doesn’t have a win against a Power 4 opponent, it has one win against an FCS team (Villanova), and its offense hasn’t looked elite — even against weaker competition. The Nittany Lions can still change the narrative by beating Ohio State on Nov. 1 and Indiana on Nov. 8. They can also lose both of those games and miss the CFP entirely. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State less than a 50% chance to beat each of those teams. Don’t assume a 10-2 Penn State is a lock if its signature win is against Indiana — albeit a very good, ranked IU. There could be multiple other 10-2 contenders with better nonconference wins. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Penn State now has just a 22.5% chance of reaching the CFP — No. 19 in the country.

The enigma: Michigan. It’s still too early to tell how good the Wolverines are, and a bye week didn’t answer any questions. A gritty road win at Nebraska on Sept. 20, though, is early evidence things are trending in the right direction following the Sept. 6 loss at Oklahoma. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, the defense — for the most part — has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. If the Wolverines can split with those two opponents and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee will give them serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams will be out there — and how will their résumés stack up. Right now, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Michigan (35.2%) a better chance of reaching the CFP than Penn State (22.5%).

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: Penn State

Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Jackets fans are still sweating the overtime escape at Wake Forest, and Demon Deacons fans are still mad about the no-call of offside at the end of the game that would’ve given Wake a critical first down. With the win, Georgia Tech now has the fourth-best chance in the league to reach the ACC title game (22%) behind Miami, Virginia and Duke. If the Jackets don’t make the ACC title game, it’s going to be difficult to earn an at-large bid because of the overall schedule strength — unless they find a way to beat rival Georgia. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Duke a 60.5% chance to beat the Jackets at home on Oct. 18, and gives Georgia an 84.7% chance to win. If that comes to fruition, a 10-2 Georgia Tech is likely out. But what if Georgia Tech finishes as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with its lone losses to Georgia and the ACC champ? That could be an interesting debate, but Georgia Tech still might not have enough big wins to impress the committee.

The enigma: Virginia. The Cavaliers had the spotlight to themselves on Friday night in a double-overtime win against Florida State — a stunning victory that illustrated the program’s investments in transfers and facilities and catapulted the Hoos into ACC contention. Was it a one-and-done upset? Or the start of something bigger under coach Tony Elliott? Virginia now has the second-best chance in the league to reach the conference title game (37.5%) behind Miami. The question is if the Cavaliers can sustain that success and build on it. ESPN’s FPI says no, giving them less than a 50% chance to win at Louisville on Saturday and at Duke on Nov. 15. If Virginia can win those games, though, and reach the ACC championship, that win against FSU could help the Hoos earn an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC. Florida State, though, has to remain relevant in the CFP race for that win to continue to resonate with the committee.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Florida State, Miami

On the cusp: Georgia Tech

Work to do: Cal, Louisville, NC State, Virginia

Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12

Spotlight: Texas Tech. The undefeated Red Raiders were No. 13 in this week’s projection but would still be in the playoff as the projected Big 12 champion. Texas Tech’s best win was Sept. 20 at Utah, but it still has multiple chances to enhance its résumé and play its way into the top 12. If the selection committee ranks Utah, Arizona State and BYU — and the Red Raiders go undefeated during the regular season — it’s highly likely they would be the second Big 12 team if they didn’t win the conference title game. Right now, ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech will win each of its remaining games. Nobody in the Big 12 has a better chance to reach the league championship (51.5%) or win it (31.6%).

The enigma: BYU. The undefeated Cougars have won back-to-back road games against East Carolina and Colorado, but is this another 2024 tease? Last year, BYU was undefeated until mid-November, when back-to-back losses knocked it out of the Big 12 and CFP races. The Cougars haven’t earned a signature win yet, and might not until the Oct. 25 trip to Iowa State. That’s when the committee will start to learn how seriously to take BYU, as the following week is a second straight critical road trip — to Texas Tech. The Cougars have the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (42.7%) and win it (26.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll have the Friday night spotlight this week against a struggling West Virginia team.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

On the cusp: BYU

Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah

Would be out: Colorado, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish are making the slow climb back and can get over .500 for the first time this season with a home win against Boise State on Saturday. It helps Notre Dame that Miami and Texas A&M have continued to win, but it doesn’t help that Arkansas fired its coach after the 56-13 loss to the Irish. It also doesn’t help that USC lost to Illinois, as Notre Dame desperately needs a win against a ranked opponent. As long as the Irish keep winning and doing it with style — as they have in each of their past two games — they’ll be in contention at 10-2.

Group of 5

Spotlight: Memphis. The undefeated Tigers would lock up the No. 12 seed this week as the fifth-highest projected conference champion. They currently have the best chance in the Group of 5 (34.5%) to reach the playoff, and the best chance to win the American (41.1%). They’ve won three of their five games on the road, which is more than a lot of other contenders, and they beat a beleaguered Arkansas team 32-31. They’re not alone, though. The American conference is leading the race with multiple candidates, as Navy and North Texas are both undefeated and Tulane is hanging around with its lone loss to Ole Miss.

The enigma: Navy. The undefeated Midshipmen are again on a roll, but Rice is the only opponent over .500 that they’ve beaten, and one win was against VMI, an FCS opponent from the Southern Conference. Can Navy sustain its success against more formidable opponents? Last year, Navy was 6-0 before it came crashing back to reality with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Rice. According to ESPN Analytics, Navy has just a 12% chance of reaching the conference title game.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Memphis

Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami

VOORHEES, NJ — Trevor Zegras owns a large-scale version of his EA Sports “NHL 23” cover, the one where he’s crouched in shorts and an Anaheim Ducks jersey, looking like he’s about to play some street hockey against Team Canada’s Sarah Nurse.

What does Zegras see when he looks at that cover today?

“The same guy.”

Yet many around the NHL have wondered what happened to that version of Trevor Zegras.

The first three seasons of Zegras’ NHL career were brilliant. He tallied 139 points in 180 games with the Ducks. He became the face of a generation of young players who grew up filming themselves attempting trick shots, scoring multiple “Michigan” lacrosse-style goals.

His masterpiece was on Dec. 7, 2021, when Zegras sent a “Michigan” ally-oop pass over the Buffalo Sabres net to teammate Sonny Milano for a goal. High-school and college players started to tag the 20-year-old on social media with their own attempts at “The Zegras.”

play

Trevor Zegras breaks down his unbelievable alley-oop assist

Trevor Zegras joins The Point to break down his amazing circus pass to set up Sonny Milano’s goal.

He was one of those players where the question wasn’t if he’d become a star, but how brightly he’d shine. But his last two seasons in Anaheim all but extinguished that star.

They were nightmarish, filled with injuries, criticism of his defensive game, conflicts with Ducks management and statistical decline: His 0.77 points-per-game average over his first three seasons plummeted to 0.53. They were also filled with trade rumors, which Zegras said caused him “awful” mental anxiety, and eventually a trade to the Philadelphia Flyers in June.

“The guy hasn’t liked his last couple of years. He has his doubters,” Flyers coach Rick Tocchet said. “He’s in-house now. He knows this is his sanctuary.”

The move to Philadelphia offers Zegras the reset he’s needed. A chance to play center after the Ducks forced him to the wing. A chance to vibe with other young stars like Matvei Michkov. A chance to “recapture some of the magic that he had in his first few seasons,” as Flyers GM Daniel Briere put it.

What does Zegras want people saying about him after his first season in Philadelphia?

“I want them to go from saying ‘he’s good at hockey’ to ‘he’s a hockey player,'” Zegras told ESPN last week.

“I think there are a lot of guys that are good at hockey. After the season, I’d rather be known as somebody who is a hockey player.”

WHAT WENT WRONG in Anaheim?

“Seasonal depression. Let’s go with that,” Zegras deadpanned, sitting in the media room at the Flyers training facility. “I need winters. Every day felt the exact same for five years. It was weird. Seasonal depression. It’s a real thing. I swear to God.”

Despite the monotonously gorgeous weather, things weren’t always sunny for Zegras in SoCal.

After leaving Boston University in 2020, Zegras joined a Ducks team coached by Dallas Eakins and managed by Bob Murray, who drafted Zegras ninth overall in 2019. Murray resigned on Nov. 10, 2021 following an investigation into his professional conduct. After Jeff Solomon served as interim general manager, Pat Verbeek was hired from the Red Wings to take over as general manager in Feb. 2022.

Zegras had his two breakout seasons under Eakins: 23 goals and 38 assists in 75 games during 2021-22, when he finished second to Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider in the rookie of the year voting; followed by 23 goals and 42 points in 81 games in 2022-23.

Eakins was fired in April 2023 after four seasons. Verbeek replaced him with Greg Cronin, who arrived from the Colorado Avalanche‘s AHL affiliate with a reputation for developing young players. Zegras, a restricted free agent, missed Cronin’s first training camp. He signed a three-year bridge contract with Verbeek that paid him $17.25 million total through 2025-26. After his first practice with the new coach, Zegras was asked what he and Cronin discussed on the ice.

“He was telling me how to play defense,” Zegas quipped, a nod to his reputation as a one-dimensional player.

Cronin gave Zegras some tough love during that 2023-24 season, benching him for his in-game decision-making. Zegras had a sluggish start, with just a goal and an assist in his first 12 games.

“I think when you have a new GM and you’re bring in a new coach, I think they want things done their way. And not to say that I wasn’t OK with doing everything their way, but I think there were things that maybe we didn’t see eye to eye on a ton of the time and maybe they viewed that as a negative thing,” Zegras said.

“The contract stuff played a role, too,” he continued. “That was hard, just from a mental standpoint. That was a year with the new coach and then you kind of come in behind the 8-ball. You get off to a slow start and then that combined with the contract and with the [trade] rumors, it’s just not fun. But I’ve gotta keep playing.”

Not helping matters: Cronin moved Zegras from center to the wing, making room for other young centers like Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish.

“And then it’s, ‘You’re moving over here, you’re moving over here, you’re moving over here.’ And you’re like, ‘I’m doing everything you want me to do,'” he said.

It ended up being a dreadful campaign for Zegras health-wise, as a lower-body injury and ankle surgery limited him to just 31 games. But the real nightmare was on the stat sheet: Zegras tallied just 15 points, including six goals, well off his offensive pace of the previous two seasons.

He had another slow start in 2024-25, tallying four points in 17 games. Then, just as his offense started to heat up, Zegras needed surgery in December for a torn meniscus in his right knee. He finished with 32 points in 57 games — an improvement, but still not up to previous standards.

Zegras believes he wasn’t given a proper chance by Cronin and Verbeek to prove his worth as a center. That left him “overthinking things” and feeling unsupported by his team, which impacted his mental health.

“The last thing I was thinking about was actually playing hockey at times. That was hard for me. And then you throw in the injuries and then the rehab and the recovery and then getting back to, I guess, the place that you were before. Little things become big things in your head, and it makes it very hard to play against the best players in the world on a night-to-night basis,” Zegras said.

“It almost felt like you were alone, when they didn’t believe in you.”

Not helping Zegras was the noise surrounding his situation in Anaheim. He became a mainstay on NHL trade boards during his two underwhelming seasons under Cronin.

“It was awful. When it’s never happened to you before, it’s awful. The second year it was easier to deal with, but that first year was tough,” Zegras said. “It was everywhere. It was every day. It was this and that, and this and that, and then it was another little thing that becomes a big thing. You’re not thinking about it, but you’re seeing it everywhere, and it just sucks.”

Reality stopped the rumors on June 23: Zegras had been traded to the Flyers for Ryan Poehling, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick. Verbeek said Zegras no longer fit within the Ducks’ lineup.

“Ultimately, Trevor has been wanting to play center, and I think that he’ll be given that opportunity in Philadelphia. Trevor to kind of get pushed to the wing, and that probably doesn’t suit his best attributes being able to create from the middle,” Verbeek said. “I want to thank Trevor for this past six seasons and his contributions to our club. Obviously, it was a difficult trade to make from that perspective, but we’re trying to retool the roster in a way [where] all the pieces fit cohesively.”

The Flyers, like other teams, had checked in on Zegras’ availability over the last two seasons. Sometimes the timing wasn’t right for Philadelphia. Most times the Ducks weren’t ready to part with him. Briere believes that Zegras’ production had dipped to a level where he finally became available.

“Top-six talents are very rarely available in the NHL. We felt this was a risk worth taking. It’s not a secret: We’re thin in the middle, and hopefully he can help us out,” Briere said. “We hope he can find that magic again and take it to another level.”

LUKAS DOSTAL HAS SEEN that magic firsthand.

When he wasn’t starting, the Ducks goalie would be the guy between the pipes on breakaway drills. He recalls Zegras pulling out his video-game moves during their friendly competitions.

“I didn’t like them Sometimes he did his YouTube tricks and I told him, ‘Man, just be serious about it. Come on!'” he recalled, with a laugh.

Dostal believes Zegras has been misunderstood, especially when it comes to criticism of his defensive game.

“A lot of people maybe didn’t see it, but he really understood how to play two-way hockey. He was really working hard on it in the last year,” Dostal said. “He probably didn’t put up as many points as he wanted, but his more responsible way of hockey got much better. I love him as a guy. I hope he’s going to do well in Philadelphia.”

Brady Tkachuk trained with Zegras in Connecticut during the offseason. He also hopes a fresh start in Philadelphia will help him find his form again.

“It’s going to be great for him, especially under [Tocchet]. I know they have a great culture there and I think he’s just going to do a good job of fitting in there,” Tkachuk told ESPN recently. “I’ve always thought playing against Philly that they play super hard, but they have a lot of great players with skill and kind of play that hard way as well. So I think that is going to be the best thing for him. So I’m excited to see how the change affects him. I bet that’s it’s going to be for the good.”

Tocchet is in his first season as Flyers head coach after three seasons with the Vancouver Canucks. He played 11 seasons in Philadelphia, forging a reputation as a rugged, no-nonsense winger. Many know him simply as “Tock.” Hence, he was amused when Zegras gave him a different nickname as Flyers camp started: “Taco.”

“Yeah, that’s what he’s calling me,” Tocchet said. “He smiles. His personality is great for a room.”

Where did “Taco” come from? Zegras said it was inspired by his friends and fellow NHLers Jack, Quinn and Luke Hughes.

“I’m good buddies with the Hughes [brothers] and they always ask me how ‘Taco’ is,” he said.

Zegras spent time with the Hughes brothers during the summer, including on the golf course, where Zegras proudly states he’s the best golfer of the four NHL players. He offered the following scouting report on the Hughes’ approach to golf:

“I like Jack’s game because he is the quickest, fastest golfer player I have ever seen in my entire life. He will have a full conversation with you while he’s putting the tee in the ground, and then he’ll swing quick and then finish his conversation. Whereas Quinn is the exact opposite. He’ll take 10 practice swings and then hit one.”

Zegras said he’s happy to be in the same division with Jack and Luke Hughes, because it means he’s no longer in the same division as their brother.

“I never want to play Quinn ever again. He’s the best hockey player of all-time,” he said.

The Flyers aren’t looking for Zegras to be an all-timer. They’d settle for having that creative spark from his early years, combined with a solid two-way game that makes him an answer at center.

“There are certain parts of his game that he knows that he has to clean up. He’s willing to learn,” Tocchet said. “He’s coachable. He’s been in the office watching video. He’s on the ice listening to the other coaches. He’s a great kid.”

Briere sees Zegras as a player who can grow with the young talents on the Flyers, who are seeking to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

“He’ll be a motivated player. If you look at his age, he can grow with many of the young players we have here,” he said. “We believe in him and believe he can recapture some of the magic that he had in his first few seasons.”

When Zegras hears Briere talk about “recapturing the magic,” it only means one thing to him. It’s the same thing that 20-year-old on the video game cover represented.

“Have fun. Just. Have. Fun. And I’m having a great freaking time. It’s awesome. Matvei’s fun to play with. The guys in the room are awesome. Getting to the rink early, just hanging out with everybody’s been a blast,” Zegras said.

“Not that I didn’t have a blast in Anaheim. It’s just different. It’s way different. Everything’s new again. Everything is fresh.”

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed goaltender Anthony Stolarz to a four-year, $15 million contract extension, the team said Sunday.

Stolarz is entering the final season of a two-year pact he signed with the Maple Leafs as a free agent ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. This new deal cements his status as the team’s No. 1 goaltender going forward and completes a priority negotiation for the club.

The extension comes after Toronto announced earlier this month that goaltender Joseph Woll was taking an indefinite leave of absence from the team for personal reasons. Woll split duties with Stolarz last season and is signed with the Maple Leafs through 2027-28.

Stolarz arrived in Toronto after backing up Sergei Bobrovsky on the Florida Panthers‘ 2023-24 Stanley Cup run, when he led the league with a .927 save percentage in 27 regular-season games. He played a career-high 34 games for the Maple Leafs last season, going 21-8-3 with a league-leading .926 save percentage and a 2.14 goals-against average.

Stolarz was sidelined by significant injuries, too, missing time in the regular season following knee surgery and then being forced out of playoff action with a concussion sustained in Toronto’s second-round series against Florida.

The 31-year-old did backstop the Maple Leafs to their first-round victory over Ottawa, recording a .901 save percentage and a 2.19 GAA in seven total appearances.

Toronto now is counting on Stolarz not only to stay healthy this season but to take on even more responsibility.

“He showed us last year that he can handle the load,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said last week. “He’s a veteran guy now. He’s been around for a long time. He’s learned over the years how to take care of his body and what type of shape he needs to be in to be able to handle a heavier workload, and he wants a heavier workload.”

With Woll sidelined, the Maple Leafs attempted to find a backup for Stolarz by signing veteran James Reimer to a professional tryout Friday. Reimer was a fourth-round selection by Toronto in the 2006 NHL draft and spent six seasons playing for the team. Now, the 37-year-old is on track to potentially earn a contract to be the club’s No. 2 until Woll can return.