What all 30 MLB teams must do before the trade deadline
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Bradford Doolittle
More than a week into June, it’s now too late to be early in the 2025 MLB season.
Within bounds, teams are what they are in the standings, with Memorial Day traditionally serving as the key early-season checkpoint when clubs begin to take a hard look at where they are. As we do each season with our June Stock Watch, we are going to do the same, but our hard looks have another looming checkpoint in mind: the trade deadline.
As we take a snapshot of where all 30 teams are positioned, separating them into four categories — October locks looking to fill postseason holes, contenders making a postseason push, fringe clubs, and teams that should look to the future — we’ll focus on what each team needs to do to clarify its status by the time the clock strikes 6 p.m. ET July 31.
Jump to:
Arming for October
Positioning for a push
Not out of it … yet
Building for better days
Arming for October
Teams with high enough playoff probabilities that they’ll start considering possible postseason roster holes.
Win average: 99.6 (Last: 93.7, 4th)
In the playoffs: 99.3% (Last: 91.7%)
Champions: 15.6% (Last: 10.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: With the Tigers a near cinch to return to the postseason, we’re way past wondering if their breakout is real. The Tigers are a better than 50/50 proposition to land the American League’s top seed. Still, it’s not too early for Detroit to be thinking about an October bullpen that could use a big strikeout arm (or two) for its high-leverage mix. The Tigers’ bullpen has been very good, but ranks in the bottom five in strikeout, swing-and-miss and chase rates. Every team wants that for their bullpen, so the sooner the Tigers jump into the trade mix, the better. Ideally, they’d hit July 31 with as much of their heavy deadline lifting already done as the market will allow.
Win average: 98.2 (Last: 96.0, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 97.7% (Last: 88.6%)
Champions: 13.5% (Last: 10.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Assess center field. When the Mets acquired Jose Siri during the offseason, it seemed likely that Siri was a stopgap solution while New York waited on some of its outfield prospects to mature. Tyrone Taylor has logged the most time in center, but he’s best suited for a complementary role. Among the prospects, Drew Gilbert is in Triple-A, but hasn’t hit there so far. Thus, center is an obvious position of need for New York, which seems like a great landing spot for Luis Robert Jr.
Win average: 97.9 (Last: 104.5, 1st)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 98.8%)
Champions: 16.2% (Last: 28.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: A Dodgers team we thought might challenge the all-time wins record has proved one old adage: You really can’t have too much pitching. With an IL list worthy of an All-Star roster, the Dodgers have leaned on their MLB-best offense to stay atop the National League West, but they’ll need some kind of consistency from their battered pitching staff if they want to repeat as champs once October arrives. The next few weeks are all about figuring which hurlers the Dodgers can, or can’t, count on when their real season starts, then filling in the gaps accordingly.
Win average: 97.33 (Last: 95.8, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 96.7% (Last: 92.7%)
Champions: 12.3% (Last: 7.8%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Chicago is on pace to average its most runs per game since 1930, the season the Cubs’ Hack Wilson set the all-time record with 191 RBIs. Even if some regression is inevitable on offense, the Cubs’ needs reside entirely on their below-average pitching staff. Lately, the bullpen has been terrific: Since the last Stock Watch, the Cubs have racked up seven saves and 19 holds with one blown save while putting up a second-ranked bullpen ERA (2.17). The rotation has ranked 20th in ERA (4.45) during that span, largely due to issues keeping the ball in the park. Some of that is a by-product of design — the Cubs’ starters pitch in the zone more than anyone — but adding to the rotation is a clear top priority for a club in the mix for the NL’s No. 1 seed.
Win average: 97.28 (Last: 90.8, 7th)
In the playoffs: 98.0% (Last: 84.5%)
Champions: 18.6% (Last: 9.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Is cloning Aaron Judge an option? No? First, note the Yankees’ title odds, which are the highest in this month’s Stock Watch. New York has a higher baseline rating than Detroit, giving the Yankees a narrow edge in all those simulated AL Championship Series meetings with the Tigers despite the road disadvantage. Also, the postseason paths of New York and Detroit are less laden with superteams than their NL brethren, so — voilà! — the Yankees’ title odds are looking good. To stay there: They need more pitching for sure, though the Yankees have done a great job of piecing things together so far. A more impactful pickup might come from a power bat for third base, with Arizona’s Eugenio Suarez leaping to mind as an ideal fit.
Positioning for a push
Teams with reasonable (or better) playoff probabilities looking to solidify a push for October.
Win average: 89.5 (Last: 86.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 83.4% (Last: 66.6%)
Champions: 4.2% (Last: 3.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Astros have pitched their way back onto their familiar perch atop the AL West, though that might say as much about their divisional foes as them. The expanding spate of rotation injuries will test Houston, but Spencer Arrighetti should be back in a few weeks. The offense is at its lowest ebb since the rebuilding days more than a decade ago. Houston will have to hope for positive regression in some cases — Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez‘s health. That might be enough to keep Houston alive into October once again. Still, any kind of roster reconfiguring that gets Altuve out of left field might not be the worst idea.
Win average: 89.1 (Last: 89.7, 9th)
In the playoffs: 67.0% (Last: 59.7%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 2.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Giants have clearly passed the Arizona Diamondbacks in the quest to become a third NL West playoff entrant. San Francisco has pitched the heck out of the ball, played good defense and gotten enough hitting to survive. The Giants need more on offense, but their hands are tied at two of their weakest-performing spots. At catcher, Patrick Bailey‘s defense makes him a fixture, while, at shortstop, it’s Willy Adames‘ contract and track record that will keep him on the field. The obvious area for a major upgrade: first base, where the Giants have already shuffled the mix by DFA’ing LaMonte Wade Jr. Big corner bats among likely off-loaders appear to be in short supply, so Buster Posey will have to get creative. That is, unless he simply decides that prospect Bryce Eldridge is ready to aid a pennant push right now. Eldridge’s early showing at Triple-A suggests that might be the case.
Win average: 88.6 (Last: 90.3, 8th)
In the playoffs: 65.0% (Last: 66.2%)
Champions: 3.0% (Last: 4.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Worry. The Phillies’ league-average offense has been carried by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, even as Harper has struggled through wrist issues that have him back on the IL. The position group once again rates as one of baseball’s poorest defenses, so those guys — not just the star trio noted above — need to hit. If the offense can produce consistently — and soon, given the competitive environment in the NL — Dave Dombrowski can focus his trade resources on upgrading the Phillies’ leaky bullpen.
Win average: 88.4 (Last: 92.9, 5th)
In the playoffs: 62.0% (Last: 76.9%)
Champions: 1.9% (Last: 4.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Padres have rolled out a motley collection of non-producers in left field, which has yielded them an overall slash line of .200/.248/.286 with four homers at the position. Upgrade opportunity! Luis Robert Jr. might work if the Padres are convinced he has nowhere to go but up, as his .546 OPS is barely above that of the Padres’ left fielders. However A.J. Preller handles it, San Diego can’t leave this hole unfilled.
Win average: 87.2 (Last: 79.5, 17th)
In the playoffs: 68.8% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 2.9% (Last: 0.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Things have really ticked up for the Twins since the last Stock Watch. The good vibes have faded a bit recently because of two rotation injuries — shoulder maladies for Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews. Of course, Lopez’s injury is the more jarring, both for its impact and its severity. Now, rather than juggling the No. 5 rotation slot between Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, Woods Richardson and Festa have apparently ascended to the core group. Let’s face it: The Twins aren’t likely to make a splashy (hence, pricey) acquisition, but perhaps a lower-end rotation stabilizer might be doable.
Win average: 85.7 (Last: 76.8, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 42.1% (Last: 6.4%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 0.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Pick a lane. The Cardinals have exceeded their middling expectations and are well positioned to make a real push for the playoffs. Still, they are at best a 50/50 candidate to play into October. What does that mean for the kinda-sorta quick rebuild the Cardinals kinda-sorta entered into over the winter? If offloading, the Cardinals’ tradable contingent of pitchers — especially closer Ryan Helsley — would attract plenty of attention. Going into that mode becomes more difficult if St. Louis’ playoff odds keep going up. And even if that happens, does that then put St. Louis in the adding group?
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 78.8, tied for 20th)
In the playoffs: 56.9% (Last: 22.3%)
Champions: 2.0% (Last: 0.5%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Rays’ Pythagorean winning percentage since the last Stock Watch (.651) is the best in baseball. The results show in these improved odds and Tampa Bay’s rising place in the AL East standings. This is a classically constructed Rays roster built on elite run prevention, depth and interchangeability. The biggest upgrades the Rays are likely to make would be injury returns: Shane McClanahan to the rotation and Ha-Seong Kim to the infield. You might add Jonny DeLuca to that list, though his recovery from a shoulder injury seems to be progressing slowly. Getting that trio on the field is Tampa Bay’s top priority. If the Rays are active at the deadline, it will be because they want to be, not because they need to be.
Win average: 84.8 (Last: 79.1, 19th)
In the playoffs: 34.5% (Last: 11.4%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last: 0.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: After a sluggish start, the Brewers are back to winning with a deep pitching staff and team defense. The rotation is fully stocked, and should the Brewers require another starter, they have fire-balling prospect Jacob Misiorowski waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Milwaukee’s offense has suffered from a general lack of power, making that a category to upgrade. The tricky part is where to add that power. The production on the left side of the infield has been lackluster, but those spots are held by young players (Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz) the Brewers might just want to leave alone. What the Brewers need is for any or all of these players to go on power tears: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins.
Win average: 84.5 (Last: 91.4, 6th)
In the playoffs: 51.1% (Last: 85.4%)
Champions: 1.9% (Last: 8.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Determine the real level of the offense. The Mariners’ roster was built around an elite rotation at the front of the pitching staff and an elite closer at the end of it. That closer — Andres Munoz — has held up his end of the bargain, but the rotation has scuffled with injuries and underperformance. Still, Jerry Dipoto and Dan Wilson have every reason to expect better from that group going forward, especially once Logan Gilbert returns from the IL. Seattle has stayed afloat thanks to an offense that has been surprisingly above average. Can it stay that way? If Dipoto can find production for first base and right field, this Mariners team has a real shot at a special second half.
Win average: 84.3 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 46.2% (Last: 25.0%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 0.6%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Decide what to do about Bo Bichette. The Jays have the look of a fence-straddler around the deadline, adding on the margins while trying to balance near- and long-term objectives. Bichette has been better than last season, but he hasn’t played so well that Toronto’s postseason hopes would be torpedoed by sending him away in advance of his looming free agency, preferably for pitching help. Toronto could fill Bichette’s spot from within, perhaps with a prospect like Leo Jimenez or Josh Kasevich, provided either or both are healthy soon. Down the line, the Jays could turn the position over to Arjun Nimmala. In other words, Toronto has options if an extension with Bichette isn’t worked out between now and the end of July.
Win average: 81.9 (Last: 82.9, 14th)
In the playoffs: 28.5% (Last: 40.9%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.9%)
What they need to do before the deadline: See where they stand. Yeah, that notion is a cop-out, but the Guardians’ direction at the deadline really might not be determined until the last day or two before July 31. Cleveland is well positioned for a wild-card push in the standings, but its run differential has been in the red all season. Last year’s powerhouse bullpen hasn’t carried the team as it did in 2024, the list of regressors headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase. The Guardians seldom make a deadline splash, but given the wellspring of position prospects in their system, you could see them doing something for the rotation or the outfield. That is, if Cleveland’s place in the playoff pecking order justifies the aggression.
Win average: 81.3 (Last: 83.6, 13th)
In the playoffs: 25.7% (Last: 47.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 1.3%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Add offense. Someday, Jac Caglianone will draw a big league walk, but it’s hard telling when that will be. Longtime Royals fans might be reminded of the early career of Mark Quinn, whose swing-at-everything approach yielded tremendous early results — until they didn’t. Caglianone has a lot more upside than the Mighty Quinn, and doesn’t seem out of place in the majors less than a year after being drafted. But his approach is likely to mean up-and-down production for a while, and the Royals have more than one outfield slot that needs a lot of help. For that matter, they need to take a hard look at second baseman Michael Massey, a heretofore solid performer whose 2025 numbers are borderline catastrophic. You get the idea: The Royals, despite Jac’s arrival, need offense.
Not out of it … yet
Teams currently on the fringe of the playoff outlook but not yet certain to unload at the deadline.
Win average: 81.2 (Last: 87.1, 10th)
In the playoffs: 16.1% (Last: 44.2%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 1.7%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Score a lot of runs. An Arizona rotation that was already a major disappointment now has to cover for the season-ending loss of Corbin Burnes. And that unit has been a heck of a lot better than a bullpen that has a 6.15 ERA since the last Stock Watch. The Diamondbacks’ playoff probabilities have plummeted since we last convened, but they haven’t flatlined just yet. If Arizona is going to be in position to justify additions to the staff, it’ll be up to the hitters to get the team there. Outscoring teams en route to contention is a dicey proposition, but what other choice does Arizona have?
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 82.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 20.3% (Last: 43.6%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 1.8%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Garrett Crochet has largely been a one-man show for Boston’s disappointing rotation, though the Red Sox can hope for better days ahead for Walker Buehler, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito. In the meantime, they’ve called up Roman Anthony, who didn’t look like someone who had much more to learn in the minors. The 497-foot shot Anthony hit last week might have landed in the Charles River had he been playing in Fenway. The Red Sox need to get hot soon if they want to be in position to add in July. Maybe Anthony will be the spark.
Win average: 79.8 (Last: 86.7, 12th)
In the playoffs: 12.6% (Last: 43.5%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 2.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Win games, and soon. It’s a terribly reductive prescription but the Braves have unraveled in a most untoward fashion since the last Stock Watch. That was when we stated that if Atlanta could just tread water until Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider returned, the Braves we expected to have this year still had time to show up. The Braves did in fact tread water until Acuna’s first game in the majors, which was May 23. Beginning with that game, Atlanta dropped 12 of 15. If the Braves are going to get off the mat, they’ll have to figure out the late innings, a problem for which closer Raisel Iglesias does not currently seem to be a solution. Without a quick and emphatic bounce-back, Atlanta might be positioning itself for the 2026 postseason, not this one.
Win average: 79.6 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 18.4% (Last: 38.1%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 1.1%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Collectively, but mostly Joc Pederson, the .513 OPS the Rangers have gotten from the DH spot is 70 points worse than every other team in the majors, even the ones on track to challenge the all-time loss record. The Rangers’ abysmal overall offense is not just the work of Pederson — no one can struggle badly enough to account for a team OPS+ of 84 — but his spot is the most glaringly in need of a runs-created infusion. The state of the AL in general, and the AL West in particular, means the Rangers can still make a run with any kind of offensive surge. It is crucial they assess whether it’s likely that Pederson (.131/.269/.238) will aid that cause. For what it’s worth, Pederson’s expected numbers, per Statcast, mark him as one of baseball’s more unlucky hitters, but even with average luck, he’d still be well below the big league standard at the dish.
Win average: 79.0 (Last: 78.8, tied for 20th)
In the playoffs: 8.4% (Last: 10.6%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Who has the fifth-best Pythagorean winning percentage in the NL? Well, it’s the Reds (.561). (Why else would we ask that question in this spot?) Despite the plus differential, Cincinnati has mostly hovered around .500 while vacillating between fourth and fifth place in the Central. For the Reds, the deadline question centers on how real the run differential might or might not be, because a team that wins at a .561 clip over the 96 games Cincinnati has remaining would land in the 86-87 win range. The current 6-seed in the NL (Philadelphia) is on pace to win 92. Therein lies the dilemma: The Reds’ record should be better, but it’s not, and the landscape in this year’s NL is rugged. The Reds have a few weeks to clarify their position.
Win average: 73.2 (Last: 66.8, 26th)
In the playoffs: 2.7% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Latch on to recognizable veterans cut loose by other organizations. Wait — the Halos have been doing that since the end of last season, with LaMonte Wade Jr. serving as only the latest example. (Or did they add Ben Gamel last? It’s hard to keep track.) Give the Angels credit for trying to shore up their holes, but just as we noted during preseason, raising the floor doesn’t necessarily raise the ceiling. They don’t have nearly enough pitching and the offense is overly predicated on all-or-nothing hitters. The only thing keeping the Angels out of the group below is their approach to keep adding. Maybe they’ll click on the right combination before another season is lost.
Building for better days
Teams that should be favoring future value over present value with remaining in-season moves.
Win average: 72.4 (Last: 70.5, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: The Nationals aren’t likely to budge much in this pecking order one way or the other. They don’t have enough for a major push this season, but they’ve made enough progress that they won’t bottom out, either. They are trying to win on a game-by-game basis, if only to push their maturing core toward that kind of mindset in hopes of hitting a Tigers-like tipping point sometime soon. They will look for trade matches involving movable vets like Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka, Amed Rosario and Nathaniel Lowe. But the Nationals might also be in position to add a little salary if there is a bottom-destined team looking to move money.
Win average: 69.4 (Last: 75.7, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.6% (Last: 11.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Get burn-your-face-off hot. The bleak outlook the Orioles had in the last Stock Watch has worsened, even though Baltimore has recently put together its best stretch of baseball this season, winning six straight and nine of 11. As you can see, the Orioles’ mathematical shot at the playoffs remains long, and it’s likely we’ll see them trying to set themselves up for 2026 at the trade deadline, as the Rays did last year. Perhaps it might be for the best that the Orioles look to that near future, play all of their young position players like Heston Kjerstad who have yet to find big league consistency, and live with the short-term results. And, for the love of Pete, figure out what’s wrong with Adley Rutschman. Barring a sudden, jarring hot streak, this season appears lost.
Win average: 67.2 (Last: 66.0, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: It stinks, but it’s probably wrong to prescribe any approach for the Pirates except to see what they can get back for veterans like Andrew Heaney, Tommy Pham (it wouldn’t be a deadline without a Pham trade) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. A team like the Nationals might pounce if the stingy Pirates look to move Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ contract. As for Paul Skenes, forget it. Don’t even think about it. If you are going to trade that guy, in his second year, just because you were too cheap to put a competitive offense behind him, why do you even have a team?
Win average: 64.3 (Last: 77.5, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)
What they need to do before the deadline: With even a modicum of pitching, the Athletics would be an intriguing second-half team thanks to one of the most watchable offenses in baseball. All they had to do was hang around break-even. Instead, the staff collapsed so thoroughly in both the rotation and the bullpen that the A’s have torpedoed their season before the middle of June. You should still watch, if only to catch the marvel that is Jacob Wilson at the plate. But the front office will likely be up to its usual task of moving around the fringes of deadline activity. This is another team that, going forward, would be a great fit if the Pirates unload Hayes.
Win average: 62.4 (Last: 63.6, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Get Sandy Alcantara close to right. This deadline is really about do they/don’t they with the former Cy Young winner. Alcantara’s stuff has rebounded well enough from his missed season, but his command has been slow to follow. At one time in evaluative circles, Alcantara’s unsightly 7.89 ERA might have taken too much air out of his trade value for the Marlins to move him now. But this is one offshoot of advance tracking: The outlook of a pitcher can change fast if his metrics spike or tank. A spike is what the Marlins need from Alcantara, or else they might as well hang onto him.
Win average: 58.2 (Last: 54.9, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Make a call on Luis Robert Jr. This season has really been a worst-case scenario for the White Sox when it comes to Robert. His numbers have been bad from the outset and somehow keep getting worse. Robert’s offseason work to improve his swing decisions have resulted in a career-best walk rate, but at the expense of just about everything else of value. His 21 stolen bases and good defense mean he can help a team, but his .546 OPS means they aren’t going to treat him as if his two $20 million club option years are worth anything. Right now, he’s a defense-and-speed short-term outfield pickup with a $2 million buyout. So should the White Sox unfurl the white flag and take what they can get? The answer is probably tied to how willing Chicago would be to pick up the first of those options in the absence of a deal. Otherwise, the vultures will be circling.
Win average: 40.8 (Last: 44.6, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What they need to do before the deadline: Get a clue. Here’s a tale of two teams: the Rockies and the Mets. New York goes up 8-0 early and cruises to a 13-5 win. OK, fine. Colorado is bad, and even good teams get blown out like that sometimes. Look deeper. The Mets used two pitchers in the game, letting combo pitcher Paul Blackburn ride the last four frames to save the bullpen even though New York had the next day off. The Rockies used five relievers to cover the six innings after starter Chase Dollander was, well, chased. The parade included Seth Halvorsen, Zach Agnos and Tyler Kinley — three of Colorado’s four highest-leverage relievers. Some of this was to shake off rust, but this is no way to deploy a relief staff. Halvorsen, the closer, was working for the first time in five days. The key reliever they didn’t use — Jake Bird — is probably the one they can get the best return for in a deadline swap.
With one double-overtime loss to Oregon on Saturday, Penn State dropped out of the latest College Football Playoff projection, landing in the dreaded No. 12 spot, where it would be replaced by the fourth and fifth conference champions.
The Nittany Lions are now officially on the bubble — and under pressure to win at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
This week, we added a fourth category: On the cusp. These are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers dropped out of the top 12 projection following their loss to Ole Miss because they didn’t look like a playoff team: 2-of-11 on third downs, 59 rushing yards, seven penalties and one turnover. The LSU defense allowed 13 explosive plays, its most in a single game since the 2024 season opener against USC. Offensively, LSU managed just three explosive plays — its fewest in a game since 2018. Still, it was a close loss on the road, and LSU has plenty of chances to get back into the race. Unless it continues to play like that. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU’s chances of reaching the SEC title game dropped to 2.9%, the 10th-best chance in the league. If the Tigers are not in the conference championship game, they could still earn an at-large bid, but they have the No. 12 toughest remaining schedule. That includes trips to ranked opponents Vandy, Alabama and Oklahoma.
The enigma: Vanderbilt. The perception of Vanderbilt is slowly changing — from an academic school with a football team, to an academic school with a spoiler team, to … hey, can these guys beat Bama again?! The Commodores are 5-0 for the second time in 80 years. Vandy beat the Tide 40-35 last year in Nashville. This year, the Commodores have scored at least 55 points in each of their past two games, and they’ve scored at least 30 in all five wins, their longest single-season streak since joining the SEC in 1948. A lot of Vandy’s success stems from the grit and personality of its quarterback, Diego Pavia, who accounted for six touchdowns against Utah State last week. This is where Vandy’s true test begins, though, as the Commodores have the No. 2 toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll face four straight ranked opponents, starting with Bama. ESPN’s FPI gives Vandy less than a 50% chance to beat Alabama, Texas and Tennessee — all three road games. If the Commodores can defy the odds in just one of those — and finish 10-2 — they could have a chance at an at-large bid.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Penn State. At No. 12 in this week’s weekly projection, Penn State would be bumped out of the CFP field during the seeding process to include Memphis, the projected champion from the American, and the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Penn State dropped for several reasons: It doesn’t have a win against a Power 4 opponent, it has one win against an FCS team (Villanova), and its offense hasn’t looked elite — even against weaker competition. The Nittany Lions can still change the narrative by beating Ohio State on Nov. 1 and Indiana on Nov. 8. They can also lose both of those games and miss the CFP entirely. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State less than a 50% chance to beat each of those teams. Don’t assume a 10-2 Penn State is a lock if its signature win is against Indiana — albeit a very good, ranked IU. There could be multiple other 10-2 contenders with better nonconference wins. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Penn State now has just a 22.5% chance of reaching the CFP — No. 19 in the country.
The enigma: Michigan. It’s still too early to tell how good the Wolverines are, and a bye week didn’t answer any questions. A gritty road win at Nebraska on Sept. 20, though, is early evidence things are trending in the right direction following the Sept. 6 loss at Oklahoma. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, the defense — for the most part — has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. If the Wolverines can split with those two opponents and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee will give them serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams will be out there — and how will their résumés stack up. Right now, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Michigan (35.2%) a better chance of reaching the CFP than Penn State (22.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Jackets fans are still sweating the overtime escape at Wake Forest, and Demon Deacons fans are still mad about the no-call of offside at the end of the game that would’ve given Wake a critical first down. With the win, Georgia Tech now has the fourth-best chance in the league to reach the ACC title game (22%) behind Miami, Virginia and Duke. If the Jackets don’t make the ACC title game, it’s going to be difficult to earn an at-large bid because of the overall schedule strength — unless they find a way to beat rival Georgia. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Duke a 60.5% chance to beat the Jackets at home on Oct. 18, and gives Georgia an 84.7% chance to win. If that comes to fruition, a 10-2 Georgia Tech is likely out. But what if Georgia Tech finishes as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with its lone losses to Georgia and the ACC champ? That could be an interesting debate, but Georgia Tech still might not have enough big wins to impress the committee.
The enigma: Virginia. The Cavaliers had the spotlight to themselves on Friday night in a double-overtime win against Florida State — a stunning victory that illustrated the program’s investments in transfers and facilities and catapulted the Hoos into ACC contention. Was it a one-and-done upset? Or the start of something bigger under coach Tony Elliott? Virginia now has the second-best chance in the league to reach the conference title game (37.5%) behind Miami. The question is if the Cavaliers can sustain that success and build on it. ESPN’s FPI says no, giving them less than a 50% chance to win at Louisville on Saturday and at Duke on Nov. 15. If Virginia can win those games, though, and reach the ACC championship, that win against FSU could help the Hoos earn an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC. Florida State, though, has to remain relevant in the CFP race for that win to continue to resonate with the committee.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Cal, Louisville, NC State, Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The undefeated Red Raiders were No. 13 in this week’s projection but would still be in the playoff as the projected Big 12 champion. Texas Tech’s best win was Sept. 20 at Utah, but it still has multiple chances to enhance its résumé and play its way into the top 12. If the selection committee ranks Utah, Arizona State and BYU — and the Red Raiders go undefeated during the regular season — it’s highly likely they would be the second Big 12 team if they didn’t win the conference title game. Right now, ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech will win each of its remaining games. Nobody in the Big 12 has a better chance to reach the league championship (51.5%) or win it (31.6%).
The enigma: BYU. The undefeated Cougars have won back-to-back road games against East Carolina and Colorado, but is this another 2024 tease? Last year, BYU was undefeated until mid-November, when back-to-back losses knocked it out of the Big 12 and CFP races. The Cougars haven’t earned a signature win yet, and might not until the Oct. 25 trip to Iowa State. That’s when the committee will start to learn how seriously to take BYU, as the following week is a second straight critical road trip — to Texas Tech. The Cougars have the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (42.7%) and win it (26.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll have the Friday night spotlight this week against a struggling West Virginia team.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Colorado, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish are making the slow climb back and can get over .500 for the first time this season with a home win against Boise State on Saturday. It helps Notre Dame that Miami and Texas A&M have continued to win, but it doesn’t help that Arkansas fired its coach after the 56-13 loss to the Irish. It also doesn’t help that USC lost to Illinois, as Notre Dame desperately needs a win against a ranked opponent. As long as the Irish keep winning and doing it with style — as they have in each of their past two games — they’ll be in contention at 10-2.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The undefeated Tigers would lock up the No. 12 seed this week as the fifth-highest projected conference champion. They currently have the best chance in the Group of 5 (34.5%) to reach the playoff, and the best chance to win the American (41.1%). They’ve won three of their five games on the road, which is more than a lot of other contenders, and they beat a beleaguered Arkansas team 32-31. They’re not alone, though. The American conference is leading the race with multiple candidates, as Navy and North Texas are both undefeated and Tulane is hanging around with its lone loss to Ole Miss.
The enigma: Navy. The undefeated Midshipmen are again on a roll, but Rice is the only opponent over .500 that they’ve beaten, and one win was against VMI, an FCS opponent from the Southern Conference. Can Navy sustain its success against more formidable opponents? Last year, Navy was 6-0 before it came crashing back to reality with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Rice. According to ESPN Analytics, Navy has just a 12% chance of reaching the conference title game.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Greg Wyshynski
VOORHEES, NJ — Trevor Zegras owns a large-scale version of his EA Sports “NHL 23” cover, the one where he’s crouched in shorts and an Anaheim Ducks jersey, looking like he’s about to play some street hockey against Team Canada’s Sarah Nurse.
What does Zegras see when he looks at that cover today?
“The same guy.”
Yet many around the NHL have wondered what happened to that version of Trevor Zegras.
The first three seasons of Zegras’ NHL career were brilliant. He tallied 139 points in 180 games with the Ducks. He became the face of a generation of young players who grew up filming themselves attempting trick shots, scoring multiple “Michigan” lacrosse-style goals.
His masterpiece was on Dec. 7, 2021, when Zegras sent a “Michigan” ally-oop pass over the Buffalo Sabres net to teammate Sonny Milano for a goal. High-school and college players started to tag the 20-year-old on social media with their own attempts at “The Zegras.”
2:04
Trevor Zegras breaks down his unbelievable alley-oop assist
Trevor Zegras joins The Point to break down his amazing circus pass to set up Sonny Milano’s goal.
He was one of those players where the question wasn’t if he’d become a star, but how brightly he’d shine. But his last two seasons in Anaheim all but extinguished that star.
They were nightmarish, filled with injuries, criticism of his defensive game, conflicts with Ducks management and statistical decline: His 0.77 points-per-game average over his first three seasons plummeted to 0.53. They were also filled with trade rumors, which Zegras said caused him “awful” mental anxiety, and eventually a trade to the Philadelphia Flyers in June.
“The guy hasn’t liked his last couple of years. He has his doubters,” Flyers coach Rick Tocchet said. “He’s in-house now. He knows this is his sanctuary.”
The move to Philadelphia offers Zegras the reset he’s needed. A chance to play center after the Ducks forced him to the wing. A chance to vibe with other young stars like Matvei Michkov. A chance to “recapture some of the magic that he had in his first few seasons,” as Flyers GM Daniel Briere put it.
What does Zegras want people saying about him after his first season in Philadelphia?
“I want them to go from saying ‘he’s good at hockey’ to ‘he’s a hockey player,'” Zegras told ESPN last week.
“I think there are a lot of guys that are good at hockey. After the season, I’d rather be known as somebody who is a hockey player.”
WHAT WENT WRONG in Anaheim?
“Seasonal depression. Let’s go with that,” Zegras deadpanned, sitting in the media room at the Flyers training facility. “I need winters. Every day felt the exact same for five years. It was weird. Seasonal depression. It’s a real thing. I swear to God.”
Despite the monotonously gorgeous weather, things weren’t always sunny for Zegras in SoCal.
After leaving Boston University in 2020, Zegras joined a Ducks team coached by Dallas Eakins and managed by Bob Murray, who drafted Zegras ninth overall in 2019. Murray resigned on Nov. 10, 2021 following an investigation into his professional conduct. After Jeff Solomon served as interim general manager, Pat Verbeek was hired from the Red Wings to take over as general manager in Feb. 2022.
Zegras had his two breakout seasons under Eakins: 23 goals and 38 assists in 75 games during 2021-22, when he finished second to Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider in the rookie of the year voting; followed by 23 goals and 42 points in 81 games in 2022-23.
Eakins was fired in April 2023 after four seasons. Verbeek replaced him with Greg Cronin, who arrived from the Colorado Avalanche‘s AHL affiliate with a reputation for developing young players. Zegras, a restricted free agent, missed Cronin’s first training camp. He signed a three-year bridge contract with Verbeek that paid him $17.25 million total through 2025-26. After his first practice with the new coach, Zegras was asked what he and Cronin discussed on the ice.
“He was telling me how to play defense,” Zegas quipped, a nod to his reputation as a one-dimensional player.
Cronin gave Zegras some tough love during that 2023-24 season, benching him for his in-game decision-making. Zegras had a sluggish start, with just a goal and an assist in his first 12 games.
“I think when you have a new GM and you’re bring in a new coach, I think they want things done their way. And not to say that I wasn’t OK with doing everything their way, but I think there were things that maybe we didn’t see eye to eye on a ton of the time and maybe they viewed that as a negative thing,” Zegras said.
“The contract stuff played a role, too,” he continued. “That was hard, just from a mental standpoint. That was a year with the new coach and then you kind of come in behind the 8-ball. You get off to a slow start and then that combined with the contract and with the [trade] rumors, it’s just not fun. But I’ve gotta keep playing.”
Not helping matters: Cronin moved Zegras from center to the wing, making room for other young centers like Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish.
“And then it’s, ‘You’re moving over here, you’re moving over here, you’re moving over here.’ And you’re like, ‘I’m doing everything you want me to do,'” he said.
It ended up being a dreadful campaign for Zegras health-wise, as a lower-body injury and ankle surgery limited him to just 31 games. But the real nightmare was on the stat sheet: Zegras tallied just 15 points, including six goals, well off his offensive pace of the previous two seasons.
He had another slow start in 2024-25, tallying four points in 17 games. Then, just as his offense started to heat up, Zegras needed surgery in December for a torn meniscus in his right knee. He finished with 32 points in 57 games — an improvement, but still not up to previous standards.
Zegras believes he wasn’t given a proper chance by Cronin and Verbeek to prove his worth as a center. That left him “overthinking things” and feeling unsupported by his team, which impacted his mental health.
“The last thing I was thinking about was actually playing hockey at times. That was hard for me. And then you throw in the injuries and then the rehab and the recovery and then getting back to, I guess, the place that you were before. Little things become big things in your head, and it makes it very hard to play against the best players in the world on a night-to-night basis,” Zegras said.
“It almost felt like you were alone, when they didn’t believe in you.”
Not helping Zegras was the noise surrounding his situation in Anaheim. He became a mainstay on NHL trade boards during his two underwhelming seasons under Cronin.
“It was awful. When it’s never happened to you before, it’s awful. The second year it was easier to deal with, but that first year was tough,” Zegras said. “It was everywhere. It was every day. It was this and that, and this and that, and then it was another little thing that becomes a big thing. You’re not thinking about it, but you’re seeing it everywhere, and it just sucks.”
Reality stopped the rumors on June 23: Zegras had been traded to the Flyers for Ryan Poehling, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick. Verbeek said Zegras no longer fit within the Ducks’ lineup.
“Ultimately, Trevor has been wanting to play center, and I think that he’ll be given that opportunity in Philadelphia. Trevor to kind of get pushed to the wing, and that probably doesn’t suit his best attributes being able to create from the middle,” Verbeek said. “I want to thank Trevor for this past six seasons and his contributions to our club. Obviously, it was a difficult trade to make from that perspective, but we’re trying to retool the roster in a way [where] all the pieces fit cohesively.”
The Flyers, like other teams, had checked in on Zegras’ availability over the last two seasons. Sometimes the timing wasn’t right for Philadelphia. Most times the Ducks weren’t ready to part with him. Briere believes that Zegras’ production had dipped to a level where he finally became available.
“Top-six talents are very rarely available in the NHL. We felt this was a risk worth taking. It’s not a secret: We’re thin in the middle, and hopefully he can help us out,” Briere said. “We hope he can find that magic again and take it to another level.”
LUKAS DOSTAL HAS SEEN that magic firsthand.
When he wasn’t starting, the Ducks goalie would be the guy between the pipes on breakaway drills. He recalls Zegras pulling out his video-game moves during their friendly competitions.
“I didn’t like them Sometimes he did his YouTube tricks and I told him, ‘Man, just be serious about it. Come on!'” he recalled, with a laugh.
Dostal believes Zegras has been misunderstood, especially when it comes to criticism of his defensive game.
“A lot of people maybe didn’t see it, but he really understood how to play two-way hockey. He was really working hard on it in the last year,” Dostal said. “He probably didn’t put up as many points as he wanted, but his more responsible way of hockey got much better. I love him as a guy. I hope he’s going to do well in Philadelphia.”
Brady Tkachuk trained with Zegras in Connecticut during the offseason. He also hopes a fresh start in Philadelphia will help him find his form again.
“It’s going to be great for him, especially under [Tocchet]. I know they have a great culture there and I think he’s just going to do a good job of fitting in there,” Tkachuk told ESPN recently. “I’ve always thought playing against Philly that they play super hard, but they have a lot of great players with skill and kind of play that hard way as well. So I think that is going to be the best thing for him. So I’m excited to see how the change affects him. I bet that’s it’s going to be for the good.”
Tocchet is in his first season as Flyers head coach after three seasons with the Vancouver Canucks. He played 11 seasons in Philadelphia, forging a reputation as a rugged, no-nonsense winger. Many know him simply as “Tock.” Hence, he was amused when Zegras gave him a different nickname as Flyers camp started: “Taco.”
“Yeah, that’s what he’s calling me,” Tocchet said. “He smiles. His personality is great for a room.”
Where did “Taco” come from? Zegras said it was inspired by his friends and fellow NHLers Jack, Quinn and Luke Hughes.
“I’m good buddies with the Hughes [brothers] and they always ask me how ‘Taco’ is,” he said.
Zegras spent time with the Hughes brothers during the summer, including on the golf course, where Zegras proudly states he’s the best golfer of the four NHL players. He offered the following scouting report on the Hughes’ approach to golf:
“I like Jack’s game because he is the quickest, fastest golfer player I have ever seen in my entire life. He will have a full conversation with you while he’s putting the tee in the ground, and then he’ll swing quick and then finish his conversation. Whereas Quinn is the exact opposite. He’ll take 10 practice swings and then hit one.”
Zegras said he’s happy to be in the same division with Jack and Luke Hughes, because it means he’s no longer in the same division as their brother.
“I never want to play Quinn ever again. He’s the best hockey player of all-time,” he said.
The Flyers aren’t looking for Zegras to be an all-timer. They’d settle for having that creative spark from his early years, combined with a solid two-way game that makes him an answer at center.
“There are certain parts of his game that he knows that he has to clean up. He’s willing to learn,” Tocchet said. “He’s coachable. He’s been in the office watching video. He’s on the ice listening to the other coaches. He’s a great kid.”
Briere sees Zegras as a player who can grow with the young talents on the Flyers, who are seeking to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
“He’ll be a motivated player. If you look at his age, he can grow with many of the young players we have here,” he said. “We believe in him and believe he can recapture some of the magic that he had in his first few seasons.”
When Zegras hears Briere talk about “recapturing the magic,” it only means one thing to him. It’s the same thing that 20-year-old on the video game cover represented.
“Have fun. Just. Have. Fun. And I’m having a great freaking time. It’s awesome. Matvei’s fun to play with. The guys in the room are awesome. Getting to the rink early, just hanging out with everybody’s been a blast,” Zegras said.
“Not that I didn’t have a blast in Anaheim. It’s just different. It’s way different. Everything’s new again. Everything is fresh.”
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Kristen Shilton
The Toronto Maple Leafs signed goaltender Anthony Stolarz to a four-year, $15 million contract extension, the team said Sunday.
Stolarz is entering the final season of a two-year pact he signed with the Maple Leafs as a free agent ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. This new deal cements his status as the team’s No. 1 goaltender going forward and completes a priority negotiation for the club.
The extension comes after Toronto announced earlier this month that goaltender Joseph Woll was taking an indefinite leave of absence from the team for personal reasons. Woll split duties with Stolarz last season and is signed with the Maple Leafs through 2027-28.
Stolarz arrived in Toronto after backing up Sergei Bobrovsky on the Florida Panthers‘ 2023-24 Stanley Cup run, when he led the league with a .927 save percentage in 27 regular-season games. He played a career-high 34 games for the Maple Leafs last season, going 21-8-3 with a league-leading .926 save percentage and a 2.14 goals-against average.
Stolarz was sidelined by significant injuries, too, missing time in the regular season following knee surgery and then being forced out of playoff action with a concussion sustained in Toronto’s second-round series against Florida.
The 31-year-old did backstop the Maple Leafs to their first-round victory over Ottawa, recording a .901 save percentage and a 2.19 GAA in seven total appearances.
Toronto now is counting on Stolarz not only to stay healthy this season but to take on even more responsibility.
“He showed us last year that he can handle the load,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said last week. “He’s a veteran guy now. He’s been around for a long time. He’s learned over the years how to take care of his body and what type of shape he needs to be in to be able to handle a heavier workload, and he wants a heavier workload.”
With Woll sidelined, the Maple Leafs attempted to find a backup for Stolarz by signing veteran James Reimer to a professional tryout Friday. Reimer was a fourth-round selection by Toronto in the 2006 NHL draft and spent six seasons playing for the team. Now, the 37-year-old is on track to potentially earn a contract to be the club’s No. 2 until Woll can return.
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