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More than a week into June, it’s now too late to be early in the 2025 MLB season.

Within bounds, teams are what they are in the standings, with Memorial Day traditionally serving as the key early-season checkpoint when clubs begin to take a hard look at where they are. As we do each season with our June Stock Watch, we are going to do the same, but our hard looks have another looming checkpoint in mind: the trade deadline.

As we take a snapshot of where all 30 teams are positioned, separating them into four categories — October locks looking to fill postseason holes, contenders making a postseason push, fringe clubs, and teams that should look to the future — we’ll focus on what each team needs to do to clarify its status by the time the clock strikes 6 p.m. ET July 31.

Jump to:

Arming for October
Positioning for a push
Not out of it … yet
Building for better days

Arming for October

Teams with high enough playoff probabilities that they’ll start considering possible postseason roster holes.

Win average: 99.6 (Last: 93.7, 4th)
In the playoffs: 99.3% (Last: 91.7%)
Champions: 15.6% (Last: 10.1%)

What they need to do before the deadline: With the Tigers a near cinch to return to the postseason, we’re way past wondering if their breakout is real. The Tigers are a better than 50/50 proposition to land the American League’s top seed. Still, it’s not too early for Detroit to be thinking about an October bullpen that could use a big strikeout arm (or two) for its high-leverage mix. The Tigers’ bullpen has been very good, but ranks in the bottom five in strikeout, swing-and-miss and chase rates. Every team wants that for their bullpen, so the sooner the Tigers jump into the trade mix, the better. Ideally, they’d hit July 31 with as much of their heavy deadline lifting already done as the market will allow.


Win average: 98.2 (Last: 96.0, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 97.7% (Last: 88.6%)
Champions: 13.5% (Last: 10.5%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Assess center field. When the Mets acquired Jose Siri during the offseason, it seemed likely that Siri was a stopgap solution while New York waited on some of its outfield prospects to mature. Tyrone Taylor has logged the most time in center, but he’s best suited for a complementary role. Among the prospects, Drew Gilbert is in Triple-A, but hasn’t hit there so far. Thus, center is an obvious position of need for New York, which seems like a great landing spot for Luis Robert Jr.


Win average: 97.9 (Last: 104.5, 1st)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 98.8%)
Champions: 16.2% (Last: 28.5%)

What they need to do before the deadline: A Dodgers team we thought might challenge the all-time wins record has proved one old adage: You really can’t have too much pitching. With an IL list worthy of an All-Star roster, the Dodgers have leaned on their MLB-best offense to stay atop the National League West, but they’ll need some kind of consistency from their battered pitching staff if they want to repeat as champs once October arrives. The next few weeks are all about figuring which hurlers the Dodgers can, or can’t, count on when their real season starts, then filling in the gaps accordingly.


Win average: 97.33 (Last: 95.8, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 96.7% (Last: 92.7%)
Champions: 12.3% (Last: 7.8%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Chicago is on pace to average its most runs per game since 1930, the season the Cubs’ Hack Wilson set the all-time record with 191 RBIs. Even if some regression is inevitable on offense, the Cubs’ needs reside entirely on their below-average pitching staff. Lately, the bullpen has been terrific: Since the last Stock Watch, the Cubs have racked up seven saves and 19 holds with one blown save while putting up a second-ranked bullpen ERA (2.17). The rotation has ranked 20th in ERA (4.45) during that span, largely due to issues keeping the ball in the park. Some of that is a by-product of design — the Cubs’ starters pitch in the zone more than anyone — but adding to the rotation is a clear top priority for a club in the mix for the NL’s No. 1 seed.


Win average: 97.28 (Last: 90.8, 7th)
In the playoffs: 98.0% (Last: 84.5%)
Champions: 18.6% (Last: 9.3%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Is cloning Aaron Judge an option? No? First, note the Yankees’ title odds, which are the highest in this month’s Stock Watch. New York has a higher baseline rating than Detroit, giving the Yankees a narrow edge in all those simulated AL Championship Series meetings with the Tigers despite the road disadvantage. Also, the postseason paths of New York and Detroit are less laden with superteams than their NL brethren, so — voilà! — the Yankees’ title odds are looking good. To stay there: They need more pitching for sure, though the Yankees have done a great job of piecing things together so far. A more impactful pickup might come from a power bat for third base, with Arizona’s Eugenio Suarez leaping to mind as an ideal fit.

Positioning for a push

Teams with reasonable (or better) playoff probabilities looking to solidify a push for October.

Win average: 89.5 (Last: 86.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 83.4% (Last: 66.6%)
Champions: 4.2% (Last: 3.7%)

What they need to do before the deadline: The Astros have pitched their way back onto their familiar perch atop the AL West, though that might say as much about their divisional foes as them. The expanding spate of rotation injuries will test Houston, but Spencer Arrighetti should be back in a few weeks. The offense is at its lowest ebb since the rebuilding days more than a decade ago. Houston will have to hope for positive regression in some cases — Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez‘s health. That might be enough to keep Houston alive into October once again. Still, any kind of roster reconfiguring that gets Altuve out of left field might not be the worst idea.


Win average: 89.1 (Last: 89.7, 9th)
In the playoffs: 67.0% (Last: 59.7%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 2.5%)

What they need to do before the deadline: The Giants have clearly passed the Arizona Diamondbacks in the quest to become a third NL West playoff entrant. San Francisco has pitched the heck out of the ball, played good defense and gotten enough hitting to survive. The Giants need more on offense, but their hands are tied at two of their weakest-performing spots. At catcher, Patrick Bailey‘s defense makes him a fixture, while, at shortstop, it’s Willy Adames‘ contract and track record that will keep him on the field. The obvious area for a major upgrade: first base, where the Giants have already shuffled the mix by DFA’ing LaMonte Wade Jr. Big corner bats among likely off-loaders appear to be in short supply, so Buster Posey will have to get creative. That is, unless he simply decides that prospect Bryce Eldridge is ready to aid a pennant push right now. Eldridge’s early showing at Triple-A suggests that might be the case.


Win average: 88.6 (Last: 90.3, 8th)
In the playoffs: 65.0% (Last: 66.2%)
Champions: 3.0% (Last: 4.1%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Worry. The Phillies’ league-average offense has been carried by Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, even as Harper has struggled through wrist issues that have him back on the IL. The position group once again rates as one of baseball’s poorest defenses, so those guys — not just the star trio noted above — need to hit. If the offense can produce consistently — and soon, given the competitive environment in the NL — Dave Dombrowski can focus his trade resources on upgrading the Phillies’ leaky bullpen.


Win average: 88.4 (Last: 92.9, 5th)
In the playoffs: 62.0% (Last: 76.9%)
Champions: 1.9% (Last: 4.0%)

What they need to do before the deadline: The Padres have rolled out a motley collection of non-producers in left field, which has yielded them an overall slash line of .200/.248/.286 with four homers at the position. Upgrade opportunity! Luis Robert Jr. might work if the Padres are convinced he has nowhere to go but up, as his .546 OPS is barely above that of the Padres’ left fielders. However A.J. Preller handles it, San Diego can’t leave this hole unfilled.


Win average: 87.2 (Last: 79.5, 17th)
In the playoffs: 68.8% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 2.9% (Last: 0.7%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Things have really ticked up for the Twins since the last Stock Watch. The good vibes have faded a bit recently because of two rotation injuries — shoulder maladies for Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews. Of course, Lopez’s injury is the more jarring, both for its impact and its severity. Now, rather than juggling the No. 5 rotation slot between Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, Woods Richardson and Festa have apparently ascended to the core group. Let’s face it: The Twins aren’t likely to make a splashy (hence, pricey) acquisition, but perhaps a lower-end rotation stabilizer might be doable.


Win average: 85.7 (Last: 76.8, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 42.1% (Last: 6.4%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 0.1%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Pick a lane. The Cardinals have exceeded their middling expectations and are well positioned to make a real push for the playoffs. Still, they are at best a 50/50 candidate to play into October. What does that mean for the kinda-sorta quick rebuild the Cardinals kinda-sorta entered into over the winter? If offloading, the Cardinals’ tradable contingent of pitchers — especially closer Ryan Helsley — would attract plenty of attention. Going into that mode becomes more difficult if St. Louis’ playoff odds keep going up. And even if that happens, does that then put St. Louis in the adding group?


Win average: 85.6 (Last: 78.8, tied for 20th)
In the playoffs: 56.9% (Last: 22.3%)
Champions: 2.0% (Last: 0.5%)

What they need to do before the deadline: The Rays’ Pythagorean winning percentage since the last Stock Watch (.651) is the best in baseball. The results show in these improved odds and Tampa Bay’s rising place in the AL East standings. This is a classically constructed Rays roster built on elite run prevention, depth and interchangeability. The biggest upgrades the Rays are likely to make would be injury returns: Shane McClanahan to the rotation and Ha-Seong Kim to the infield. You might add Jonny DeLuca to that list, though his recovery from a shoulder injury seems to be progressing slowly. Getting that trio on the field is Tampa Bay’s top priority. If the Rays are active at the deadline, it will be because they want to be, not because they need to be.


Win average: 84.8 (Last: 79.1, 19th)
In the playoffs: 34.5% (Last: 11.4%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last: 0.1%)

What they need to do before the deadline: After a sluggish start, the Brewers are back to winning with a deep pitching staff and team defense. The rotation is fully stocked, and should the Brewers require another starter, they have fire-balling prospect Jacob Misiorowski waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Milwaukee’s offense has suffered from a general lack of power, making that a category to upgrade. The tricky part is where to add that power. The production on the left side of the infield has been lackluster, but those spots are held by young players (Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz) the Brewers might just want to leave alone. What the Brewers need is for any or all of these players to go on power tears: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins.


Win average: 84.5 (Last: 91.4, 6th)
In the playoffs: 51.1% (Last: 85.4%)
Champions: 1.9% (Last: 8.1%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Determine the real level of the offense. The Mariners’ roster was built around an elite rotation at the front of the pitching staff and an elite closer at the end of it. That closer — Andres Munoz — has held up his end of the bargain, but the rotation has scuffled with injuries and underperformance. Still, Jerry Dipoto and Dan Wilson have every reason to expect better from that group going forward, especially once Logan Gilbert returns from the IL. Seattle has stayed afloat thanks to an offense that has been surprisingly above average. Can it stay that way? If Dipoto can find production for first base and right field, this Mariners team has a real shot at a special second half.


Win average: 84.3 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 46.2% (Last: 25.0%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 0.6%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Decide what to do about Bo Bichette. The Jays have the look of a fence-straddler around the deadline, adding on the margins while trying to balance near- and long-term objectives. Bichette has been better than last season, but he hasn’t played so well that Toronto’s postseason hopes would be torpedoed by sending him away in advance of his looming free agency, preferably for pitching help. Toronto could fill Bichette’s spot from within, perhaps with a prospect like Leo Jimenez or Josh Kasevich, provided either or both are healthy soon. Down the line, the Jays could turn the position over to Arjun Nimmala. In other words, Toronto has options if an extension with Bichette isn’t worked out between now and the end of July.


Win average: 81.9 (Last: 82.9, 14th)
In the playoffs: 28.5% (Last: 40.9%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.9%)

What they need to do before the deadline: See where they stand. Yeah, that notion is a cop-out, but the Guardians’ direction at the deadline really might not be determined until the last day or two before July 31. Cleveland is well positioned for a wild-card push in the standings, but its run differential has been in the red all season. Last year’s powerhouse bullpen hasn’t carried the team as it did in 2024, the list of regressors headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase. The Guardians seldom make a deadline splash, but given the wellspring of position prospects in their system, you could see them doing something for the rotation or the outfield. That is, if Cleveland’s place in the playoff pecking order justifies the aggression.


Win average: 81.3 (Last: 83.6, 13th)
In the playoffs: 25.7% (Last: 47.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 1.3%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Add offense. Someday, Jac Caglianone will draw a big league walk, but it’s hard telling when that will be. Longtime Royals fans might be reminded of the early career of Mark Quinn, whose swing-at-everything approach yielded tremendous early results — until they didn’t. Caglianone has a lot more upside than the Mighty Quinn, and doesn’t seem out of place in the majors less than a year after being drafted. But his approach is likely to mean up-and-down production for a while, and the Royals have more than one outfield slot that needs a lot of help. For that matter, they need to take a hard look at second baseman Michael Massey, a heretofore solid performer whose 2025 numbers are borderline catastrophic. You get the idea: The Royals, despite Jac’s arrival, need offense.

Not out of it … yet

Teams currently on the fringe of the playoff outlook but not yet certain to unload at the deadline.

Win average: 81.2 (Last: 87.1, 10th)
In the playoffs: 16.1% (Last: 44.2%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 1.7%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Score a lot of runs. An Arizona rotation that was already a major disappointment now has to cover for the season-ending loss of Corbin Burnes. And that unit has been a heck of a lot better than a bullpen that has a 6.15 ERA since the last Stock Watch. The Diamondbacks’ playoff probabilities have plummeted since we last convened, but they haven’t flatlined just yet. If Arizona is going to be in position to justify additions to the staff, it’ll be up to the hitters to get the team there. Outscoring teams en route to contention is a dicey proposition, but what other choice does Arizona have?


Win average: 80.0 (Last: 82.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 20.3% (Last: 43.6%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 1.8%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Garrett Crochet has largely been a one-man show for Boston’s disappointing rotation, though the Red Sox can hope for better days ahead for Walker Buehler, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito. In the meantime, they’ve called up Roman Anthony, who didn’t look like someone who had much more to learn in the minors. The 497-foot shot Anthony hit last week might have landed in the Charles River had he been playing in Fenway. The Red Sox need to get hot soon if they want to be in position to add in July. Maybe Anthony will be the spark.


Win average: 79.8 (Last: 86.7, 12th)
In the playoffs: 12.6% (Last: 43.5%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 2.2%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Win games, and soon. It’s a terribly reductive prescription but the Braves have unraveled in a most untoward fashion since the last Stock Watch. That was when we stated that if Atlanta could just tread water until Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider returned, the Braves we expected to have this year still had time to show up. The Braves did in fact tread water until Acuna’s first game in the majors, which was May 23. Beginning with that game, Atlanta dropped 12 of 15. If the Braves are going to get off the mat, they’ll have to figure out the late innings, a problem for which closer Raisel Iglesias does not currently seem to be a solution. Without a quick and emphatic bounce-back, Atlanta might be positioning itself for the 2026 postseason, not this one.


Win average: 79.6 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 18.4% (Last: 38.1%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 1.1%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Collectively, but mostly Joc Pederson, the .513 OPS the Rangers have gotten from the DH spot is 70 points worse than every other team in the majors, even the ones on track to challenge the all-time loss record. The Rangers’ abysmal overall offense is not just the work of Pederson — no one can struggle badly enough to account for a team OPS+ of 84 — but his spot is the most glaringly in need of a runs-created infusion. The state of the AL in general, and the AL West in particular, means the Rangers can still make a run with any kind of offensive surge. It is crucial they assess whether it’s likely that Pederson (.131/.269/.238) will aid that cause. For what it’s worth, Pederson’s expected numbers, per Statcast, mark him as one of baseball’s more unlucky hitters, but even with average luck, he’d still be well below the big league standard at the dish.


Win average: 79.0 (Last: 78.8, tied for 20th)
In the playoffs: 8.4% (Last: 10.6%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.2%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Who has the fifth-best Pythagorean winning percentage in the NL? Well, it’s the Reds (.561). (Why else would we ask that question in this spot?) Despite the plus differential, Cincinnati has mostly hovered around .500 while vacillating between fourth and fifth place in the Central. For the Reds, the deadline question centers on how real the run differential might or might not be, because a team that wins at a .561 clip over the 96 games Cincinnati has remaining would land in the 86-87 win range. The current 6-seed in the NL (Philadelphia) is on pace to win 92. Therein lies the dilemma: The Reds’ record should be better, but it’s not, and the landscape in this year’s NL is rugged. The Reds have a few weeks to clarify their position.


Win average: 73.2 (Last: 66.8, 26th)
In the playoffs: 2.7% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Latch on to recognizable veterans cut loose by other organizations. Wait — the Halos have been doing that since the end of last season, with LaMonte Wade Jr. serving as only the latest example. (Or did they add Ben Gamel last? It’s hard to keep track.) Give the Angels credit for trying to shore up their holes, but just as we noted during preseason, raising the floor doesn’t necessarily raise the ceiling. They don’t have nearly enough pitching and the offense is overly predicated on all-or-nothing hitters. The only thing keeping the Angels out of the group below is their approach to keep adding. Maybe they’ll click on the right combination before another season is lost.

Building for better days

Teams that should be favoring future value over present value with remaining in-season moves.

Win average: 72.4 (Last: 70.5, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

What they need to do before the deadline: The Nationals aren’t likely to budge much in this pecking order one way or the other. They don’t have enough for a major push this season, but they’ve made enough progress that they won’t bottom out, either. They are trying to win on a game-by-game basis, if only to push their maturing core toward that kind of mindset in hopes of hitting a Tigers-like tipping point sometime soon. They will look for trade matches involving movable vets like Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka, Amed Rosario and Nathaniel Lowe. But the Nationals might also be in position to add a little salary if there is a bottom-destined team looking to move money.


Win average: 69.4 (Last: 75.7, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.6% (Last: 11.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Get burn-your-face-off hot. The bleak outlook the Orioles had in the last Stock Watch has worsened, even though Baltimore has recently put together its best stretch of baseball this season, winning six straight and nine of 11. As you can see, the Orioles’ mathematical shot at the playoffs remains long, and it’s likely we’ll see them trying to set themselves up for 2026 at the trade deadline, as the Rays did last year. Perhaps it might be for the best that the Orioles look to that near future, play all of their young position players like Heston Kjerstad who have yet to find big league consistency, and live with the short-term results. And, for the love of Pete, figure out what’s wrong with Adley Rutschman. Barring a sudden, jarring hot streak, this season appears lost.


Win average: 67.2 (Last: 66.0, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

What they need to do before the deadline: It stinks, but it’s probably wrong to prescribe any approach for the Pirates except to see what they can get back for veterans like Andrew Heaney, Tommy Pham (it wouldn’t be a deadline without a Pham trade) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. A team like the Nationals might pounce if the stingy Pirates look to move Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ contract. As for Paul Skenes, forget it. Don’t even think about it. If you are going to trade that guy, in his second year, just because you were too cheap to put a competitive offense behind him, why do you even have a team?


Win average: 64.3 (Last: 77.5, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.2%)

What they need to do before the deadline: With even a modicum of pitching, the Athletics would be an intriguing second-half team thanks to one of the most watchable offenses in baseball. All they had to do was hang around break-even. Instead, the staff collapsed so thoroughly in both the rotation and the bullpen that the A’s have torpedoed their season before the middle of June. You should still watch, if only to catch the marvel that is Jacob Wilson at the plate. But the front office will likely be up to its usual task of moving around the fringes of deadline activity. This is another team that, going forward, would be a great fit if the Pirates unload Hayes.


Win average: 62.4 (Last: 63.6, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Get Sandy Alcantara close to right. This deadline is really about do they/don’t they with the former Cy Young winner. Alcantara’s stuff has rebounded well enough from his missed season, but his command has been slow to follow. At one time in evaluative circles, Alcantara’s unsightly 7.89 ERA might have taken too much air out of his trade value for the Marlins to move him now. But this is one offshoot of advance tracking: The outlook of a pitcher can change fast if his metrics spike or tank. A spike is what the Marlins need from Alcantara, or else they might as well hang onto him.


Win average: 58.2 (Last: 54.9, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Make a call on Luis Robert Jr. This season has really been a worst-case scenario for the White Sox when it comes to Robert. His numbers have been bad from the outset and somehow keep getting worse. Robert’s offseason work to improve his swing decisions have resulted in a career-best walk rate, but at the expense of just about everything else of value. His 21 stolen bases and good defense mean he can help a team, but his .546 OPS means they aren’t going to treat him as if his two $20 million club option years are worth anything. Right now, he’s a defense-and-speed short-term outfield pickup with a $2 million buyout. So should the White Sox unfurl the white flag and take what they can get? The answer is probably tied to how willing Chicago would be to pick up the first of those options in the absence of a deal. Otherwise, the vultures will be circling.


Win average: 40.8 (Last: 44.6, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

What they need to do before the deadline: Get a clue. Here’s a tale of two teams: the Rockies and the Mets. New York goes up 8-0 early and cruises to a 13-5 win. OK, fine. Colorado is bad, and even good teams get blown out like that sometimes. Look deeper. The Mets used two pitchers in the game, letting combo pitcher Paul Blackburn ride the last four frames to save the bullpen even though New York had the next day off. The Rockies used five relievers to cover the six innings after starter Chase Dollander was, well, chased. The parade included Seth Halvorsen, Zach Agnos and Tyler Kinley — three of Colorado’s four highest-leverage relievers. Some of this was to shake off rust, but this is no way to deploy a relief staff. Halvorsen, the closer, was working for the first time in five days. The key reliever they didn’t use — Jake Bird — is probably the one they can get the best return for in a deadline swap.

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MLB trade grades: How much does Duran help Phillies’ bullpen?

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MLB trade grades: How much does Duran help Phillies' bullpen?

It’s MLB trade season!

From the early deals to get things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity on Thursday, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for every trade as they go down.

Follow along as ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top. This story will continue to be updated, so be sure to return for the freshest deadline analysis.


Phillies get:
RHP Jhoan Duran

Twins get:
C Eduardo Tait
RHP Mick Abel

Phillies grade: A

Is this classic David Dombrowski, or what? The Philadelphia Phillies, despite owning one of baseball’s best overall records, have a saves leader in Jordan Romano who has just eight with a 6.81 ERA. They’ve mixed and matched in high-leverage spots, not just save situations, with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering emerging as the most reliable performers. Take those two, slot them in behind Duran, and how much prettier does that postseason picture look?

Duran might end up as the most valuable reliever dealt at the deadline, trumping the New York Mets‘ deal earlier in the day for Tyler Rogers. Perhaps noticing this, the Mets almost immediately responded by also acquiring Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if the “most valuable traded reliever” title is up for debate, Duran will definitely be in the mix.

He’s arguably a better fit for Philadelphia than Helsley would’ve been, anyway, because Duran makes about half the money in 2025 and the Phillies are paying the maximum penalty in luxury tax (110% on payroll added from here) that the CBA allows. Duran also has three more years of team control (arbitration seasons) remaining after 2025. The Phillies have a new closer and it’s not just for the stretch run of this season.

In dealing Tait and Abel, president of baseball operations Dombrowski dealt two of his top-10 prospects (Nos. 4 and 5) but he didn’t deal Andrew Painter, whose name reportedly kept popping up on the Minnesota Twins‘ wish list. But dealing prospects is what Dombrowski does — along with winning pennants.

For the Phillies, it’s all about August, September and beyond. Their chances to navigate those crucial months just increased considerably.

Twins grade: B

Abel and Tait are excellent prospects that make the Twins’ system deeper and raise its ceiling. Abel, 23, has already gotten his feet wet at the big league level and should help the Twins rotation from the outset. He’s a classic long (6-foot-5), hard-throwing righty with good extension who, so far, has been hit pretty hard on contact — but he’s just getting started.

Tait has generally been the higher ranked of the two and is one of the 10 best catching prospects in the game. He’s also still a month shy of his 19th birthday, so unless the Twins put him on the really fast track, he’ll be climbing the ranks for a bit. His bat is exciting, with a good base of raw power and a better-than-average hit tool. Most analysts like his arm behind the plate but suggest he needs to learn the finer points of catching to stick at that crucial spot.

It’s a good haul, and the value exchange is reasonable for both sides. But given the clamor that had to exist for a player with Duran’s stuff, closing experience and service-time level, it feels like the Twins could have come out with more of a decided edge on the value standpoint. If they were going to trade Duran, they needed to be truly wowed and I’m not convinced this trade does that. Otherwise, I’d just as soon retain one of the game’s best relievers.

Clearly, the Twins’ evaluators buy into the considerable upside of Tait and the ongoing progress of Abel. If they’re right about that, this “B” can become an “A” easily enough. — Doolittle


Mets get:
RHP Tyler Rogers

Giants get:
OF Drew Gilbert
RHP Jose Butto
RHP Blade Tidwell

Mets grade: C+

Let’s get the important part out of the way first: Of the nine other identical twin combos in MLB history, none of the others was traded on the same day. So, the Rogers twins — who look so much alike as long as they aren’t on the mound — are the first, after Taylor was dealt from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh earlier in the day. That aspect of the grade gets an A+.

The rest of it I’m not so sure about, though Tyler Rogers is without a doubt a significant upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, giving them a really nice trio at the back of the bullpen with closer Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett. Deepening the high-leverage contingent was a must-do item for David Stearns at this deadline, so that box has been checked, though more would be nice.

All three in that trio are righties, but they have very different arm slots and pitch mixes, so they should complement each other well. In terms of performance, Rogers has been on point this season with a 1.80 ERA over 50 innings, with 38 whiffs and just four walks. On the other hand, Rogers is in a walk year, and that’s an awful lot of controllable talent to give up for two months and a postseason of a short reliever.

On the other other hand, if Rogers ends up pitching in late-October spots with a high championship-leverage index — and succeeds — Mets fans won’t sweat whatever the three young players headed for San Francisco end up doing. In the meantime, Stearns has freed up room on New York’s 40-man roster that he might need over the next 24 or so hours.

Giants grade: A-

The Giants aren’t out of the race, and while it’s easy to see dealing a key reliever as an act of white flag waving, the actuarial aspect of this deal was simply too good for Buster Posey to pass up. San Francisco’s playoff odds were at 12% in my system through Tuesday night, and while that’s not impossible, Posey is doing the right thing by (presumably) playing both sides of the fence. The Giants’ bullpen has been fantastic this season and is weakened by the loss of Rogers, but there’s still enough there to get back into the playoff chase if San Francisco snaps out of its extended slump.

Gilbert, the Mets’ No. 8 prospect, is the headliner: a good-defending outfielder with a strong enough arm that he can play anywhere in the grass. His offensive profile lacks a statistical standout, and as he will turn 25 in September, the Giants are likely going to push him along as quickly as they can.

Tidwell has good stuff, with a slider as his strong point, but his command has wavered during this development. It’s been better this year, and he made his first four big league appearances earlier this season. He has been a starter, but his fastball-slider combo gives him the flexibility to fill a key bullpen role if that’s the direction the Giants want to go.

Butto has the most big league experience of the three. He had been a combo-type hurler in the majors for the Mets until working exclusively in a medium-leverage role this season. He’ll likely fill Rogers’ role in the San Francisco bullpen for now, but with multiple controllable seasons left on his service-time clock, there’s a lot the Giants can do with him.

Rogers was terrific, but this haul was too good for Posey to refuse. — Doolittle


Yankees get:
OF Austin Slater

White Sox get:
RHP Gage Ziehl

Yankees grade: C+

The Yankees need outfield help. Slater is an outfielder, a veteran, with an easy-to-peg if limited set of strengths. The offense is short right now with Aaron Judge on the injured list, and while Slater is a Lilliputian to Judge’s Gulliver, he plays a decent corner outfield and hits lefty pitchers at an above-average rate, owning a .798 career OPS against southpaws and .859 this season. The recent pickup of Amed Rosario now looks like one that gives fellow recent pickup Ryan McMahon a platoon partner at third base, so Slater should have a steady role on the grass until Judge returns, and perhaps after as a platoon partner for Trent Grisham, with Judge playing some in center.

Eventually, we’ll find out whether losing Ziehl was too steep of a price to pay for adding a role player for two months and the postseason, but the Yankees are putting together a deep and balanced bench — provided their cornerstone players are healthy when October arrives. At the very least, Slater’s addition reduces the chances of the Yankees asking Giancarlo Stanton to figure out where his outfield glove has been stored.

White Sox grade: B

Ziehl hails from upstate New York, not far from the southern shore of Lake Ontario, and if he emerges as a big league pitcher, it looks as if he’ll do so just off the western shore of Lake Michigan now that he’s Chris Getz’s latest prospect acquisition for Chicago.

According to the prospect gurus, Ziehl relies on decent velocity with plus command and a plus sweeper-style slider as the foundation of his arsenal. A standout on the excellent Miami Hurricanes’ staff, Ziehl prospered in high-level competition as a collegian. This year marks his first taste of professional game action, and the results have been just so-so.

But the White Sox had very little use for Slater’s services except for this precise purpose: to add depth to the Chicago farm system via a trade deadline deal. Given Slater’s lack of everyday-player utility, this seems like a solid return. — Doolittle


Reds get:
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Pirates get:
SS Sammy Stafura
LHP Taylor Rogers

Reds grade: C-

The Reds have been one of the 57 teams mentioned as having interest in one-time Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who certainly would have been a more direct response to the Reds’ acute need for a middle-of-the-order bat. Hayes, whose sub-.300 slugging percentage stirs fond memories of 1970s-era shortstops, is not that.

He is, however, a Platinum Glove-level defender at the hot corner and, as they say, a run saved is as good as a run scored. Cincinnati has been playing Noelvi Marte at third base recently, and while Marte is having his best season at the plate, his defensive marks have been consistently below average and he has the positional versatility to rove around the field, as do most of the Reds’ other corner players.

Hayes doesn’t move around the field, but you don’t want him to. His value is as a defensive vacuum on the left side of the infield, one who will team with Elly De La Cruz to form one of the more dynamic infield duos around. The four years and $30 million Hayes has left on the extension he signed early in his career should be team-friendly, but he’s got to hit more than he has the past two campaigns amid ongoing back issues. For what it’s worth, Great American Ballpark is the only park other than PNC in which he’s hit more than two career homers. If the bat doesn’t pick up though, the Reds have likely acquired a long-term underwater contract.

Getting the Pirates to take on the remainder of Rogers’ expiring deal (the prorated remainder of his $12 million salary) likely sweetened the prospect return for Pittsburgh, while possibly freeing up the Reds’ payroll for further pursuits of that needed power bat.

Pirates grade: B

It sure seemed like the Pirates had developed their long-term third baseman when Hayes arrived and signed that extension, but the collapse of his bat ended that notion. Some teams might be able to carry a great-defending, poor-hitting corner player, but the Pirates need offense wherever they can get it. Getting out of their commitment to Hayes at least gives them a chance to find a more productive solution at his position.

Stafura, who just missed Cincinnati’s top 10 in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent prospect rankings could well be that guy. Or he might be the Pirates’ shortstop of the future, giving Pittsburgh the option of deploying elite prospect Konnor Griffin in center field.

Stafura is an athletic infielder with plus speed and an above-average defensive profile, good enough to stick at short according to most prospect analysts. His offensive profile is a little murky. He has exceptional plate discipline, but the question is whether he’ll make enough consistent contact in the majors to maintain the high OBPs he’s posted as a professional. Either way, he deepens Pittsburgh’s prospect base. — Doolittle


Brewers get:
C Danny Jansen (from Rays)

Rays get:
C Nick Fortes (from Marlins)
IF Jadher Areinamo (from Brewers)

Marlins get:
OF Matthew Etzel (from Rays)

Brewers grade: B

This might seem like a bizarre trade for the Brewers because they already have a solid catcher in William Contreras, but it looks like they are trying to cover all of their bases as they look toward a potential deep run in October. A question that a playoff-caliber team should consider: What happens if our starting catcher gets injured?

That’s pertinent for the Brewers because Contreras has played through a broken finger on his glove hand that he suffered in early May. That perhaps explains his lower offensive production this year, and he has struggled since the beginning of June, hitting just .229 with one home run in 44 games.

Jansen provides an upgrade over Eric Haase in the Brewers’ backup slot and could take some playing time from Contreras, who has started 87 of the Brewers’ 105 games. Jansen is a low-average hitter who can occasionally homer, hitting .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs. It’s not a major move on paper, but it’s a smart one from one of the best front offices in the game.

Rays grade: C+

The Rays had big problems during the past couple of seasons with their catcher production, which led them to sign Jansen in the offseason to a one-year deal worth $8 million with a $12 million mutual option. The change from Jansen to Fortes makes sense from the Rays’ perspective: They were unlikely to pick up their half of that 2026 option, so with Fortes under team control through 2028, they at least have a semi-solution for the foreseeable future.

The only issue is that Fortes struggles at the plate, with a career line of .225/.277/.344, and he’s even worse if you look at his numbers since 2023. He is a good defensive catcher, ranking high in Statcast’s framing runs saved despite his limited playing time, so he at least provides a replacement.

Areinamo, who was traded for Jansen, was Milwaukee’s No. 24 prospect, via MLB.com. He’s a 21-year-old who has played all three infield positions at High-A, hitting .297/.355/.463 with 11 home runs. He’s undersized at 5-foot-8 with a strange bat whip as the pitcher delivers the pitch, but he has generated excellent contact rates and has performed in the low minors. He looks like a good sleeper prospect — and we know the Rays have thrived on acquiring those kinds of players (although they’ve made some mistakes as well, like trading Cristopher Sanchez to the Phillies).

Marlins grade: C

The Marlins deal from an organizational strength in trading Fortes. Rookies Agustin Ramirez and Liam Hicks have emerged as a solid backstop duo (with Ramirez getting a lot of DH time), plus they also have Joe Mack, one of their top prospects, in Triple-A.

Etzel was the Rays’ No. 28 prospect, via MLB.com, but the 23-year-old lefty-hitting outfielder has struggled in Double-A, hitting .230/.360/.347 with five home runs in 196 at-bats. He has been out since June 20 because of an injury. He was originally acquired last season from the Baltimore Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. Etzel has plus speed and takes some walks, but he has played only the corner outfield in Double-A, so he looks like a tweener — not enough power for a corner position, not enough defense for center.

More proof that poor-hitting catchers have limited trade value, even if they’re excellent defensive catchers. — Schoenfield


Tigers get:
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Randy Dobnak

Twins get:
C Enrique Jimenez

Tigers grade: D

The Detroit Tigers have been stumbling of late, going 2-12 since July 9 (and 21-25 since June 3 if you want to go back a bit further) — and it hasn’t been just a little stumble. They’ve been outscored 93-to-43 in this 14-game stretch, with the starting rotation posting a 5.59 ERA — and that’s including Tarik Skubal‘s numbers (although he did have one mediocre start in there).

The bullpen has been even worse, with a 7.93 ERA in this stretch and 5.03 since the beginning of June. Though it makes sense for the Tigers to acquire some pitching help, Paddack hardly projects as anything more than someone who might chew up a few extra innings beyond what they’ve been getting from their current back-end starters. He’s 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA for the Minnesota Twins, including a 5.40 ERA on the road, where his home run rate has spiked.

Paddack does throw strikes and has pitched at least five innings in 17 of 21 starts this season, but batters are hitting .266 with a .753 OPS off him. He’s a below-average starter, but probably a minor upgrade over Keider Montero, who has allowed 10 runs in 8⅓ innings over his past two starts and was sent down to the minors, or rookie Troy Melton, who made his first career start last week and got hammered by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Meanwhile, Dobnak is just a salary dump for the Twins — he wasn’t even on their 40-man roster and has a 7.12 ERA in Triple-A.

This is just one move for the Tigers. It’s not game changer. Look for them to add some bullpen help over the next few days.

Twins grade: C

Though this mostly seems like the Twins dumping a couple of million in salary between Paddack and Dobnak — don’t ever change, Twins — Jimenez is at least a real prospect, a 19-year-old catcher hitting .250/.339/.440 in the Florida Complex League. He was Detroit’s top international signing in 2023, out of Venezuela, and was ranked No. 14 on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Tigers and No. 17 on Baseball America’s. Jimenez is a switch-hitter, which is always fun to see from a catcher, but it’s also his second year in the FCL and his numbers have shown just minor improvement from 2024. Check back in three years. — Schoenfield


Yankees get:
3B Ryan McMahon

Rockies get:
LHP Griffin Herring
RHP Josh Grosz

Yankees grade: B

For Yankees fans who wanted Eugenio Suarez to fill the hole at third base, this looks like a big letdown considering McMahon is hitting .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs — compared to Suarez’s 36 — and ranking second in the majors in strikeouts while playing half of his games at Coors Field. Away from Colorado, he has hit just .189 with five home runs. Consider the positives, however:

  • He has signed through 2027, so he is a solution at third base for the next two years as well (he’ll make $16 million each of the next two seasons).

  • He is an excellent defender, ranking in the 91st percentile in Statcast’s outs above average.

  • He ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate.

  • He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 87th percentile in hard-hit rate.

  • He might get the “leaving Coors Field” boost, where his road numbers adjust to playing his home games in a more normal environment.

That last one is important. The Yankees have experience with this: DJ LeMahieu hit .327 and .364 in his first two seasons with the Yankees after leaving the Rockies. Yes, the strikeouts are the big concern here with McMahon, and while he is not having his best season, at the minimum, he upgrades the defense and gives the Yankees a little more power. I suspect McMahon won’t hit .189 with the Yankees and could prove to be a sneaky good addition.

Rockies grade: C

While McMahon’s name had been on the rumor mill, it’s still a mild surprise the Rockies actually traded him. First, they rarely make trades of any sort, especially significant ones, and they especially rarely trade their homegrown players such as McMahon. So, at least good for them for doing something that probably makes sense.

Did they get much in return? Herring was a sixth-round pick last year from LSU, where he pitched in relief. The Yankees turned him into a starter, and Herring has mowed through two levels of Single-A with a 1.71 ERA and 10.3 K’s per nine. Primarily a fastball/sweeper guy at LSU, his changeup has proven a big weapon as right-handed batters are hitting just .159 against him.

A college pitcher from a high-profile program such as LSU dominating the low minors usually doesn’t tell us much, except in this case, Herring’s lack of experience and successful transition to a bigger workload is a huge positive. Herring didn’t crack Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Yankees prospects in his July update but did make MLB.com’s list at No. 8.

Grosz has spent the entire 2025 season at high A, posting a 4.14 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 85 innings and holding batters to a .211 average. He has a high-spin fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the secondary stuff needs improvement, and the command is a tick below average (35 walks).

The biggest issue is these are two pitchers who haven’t performed above Single-A and don’t necessarily have elite stuff. The stat lines look good, but the next step to Double-A will be a big test to see how Herring’s fastball plays against better competition and whether Grosz can improve his command. — Schoenfield


Mets get:
LHP Gregory Soto

Orioles get:
RHP Wellington Aracena, RHP Cameron Foster

Mets grade: C+

Through the end of May, the Mets’ bullpen ranked second in the majors with a 2.78 ERA. Since June 1, however, the Mets rank 27th with a 5.02 ERA, so Soto is a logical addition — and probably won’t be the last reliever the Mets acquire. Part of the problem is Mets’ starters haven’t pitched deep into games and manager Carlos Mendoza ran his top relievers except closer Edwin Diaz into the ground.

The Mets have also been without a reliable lefty with offseason signing A.J. Minter out for the year. They did just activate Brooks Raley, but Soto gives them another lefty option, no doubt thinking ahead to potential playoff matchups against the Phillies (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber), Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman) or Cubs (Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong). They’re going to need more than one lefty reliever.

Is Soto a good option though? He still has premium stuff with a 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider, and left-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him in 2025 (although two of the eight hits have been home runs). As always, however, throwing strikes is often an issue (4.5 walks per nine), and he has a large platoon split (right-handed batters have a .371 OBP against him). Soto is a good left-on-left on matchup, but his control means he isn’t always the most trustworthy, and the Orioles weren’t using him in a lot of high-leverage situations of late.

Orioles grade: B-

Let the exodus begin. With as many as 11 more potential free agents, the Orioles are going to be busy over the next week. A lot of those trades will look like this one: a couple of second-tier type prospects. Aracena (No. 19 on MLB.com’s Mets list, No. 28 on Baseball America) is a 6-foot-3, 20-year-old right-hander with a 2.38 ERA in low-A, including 84 strikeouts in 64 innings, featuring a fastball in the upper 90s that has topped out at 101. That’s the good news. The “Why did the Mets trade him?” news is that he has walked 35 batters. He has a cutter and a slider, but the profile here suggests he might end up as a reliever. Still, a decent return for a non-elite reliever such as Soto.

Foster is a 26-year-old reliever who crushed Double-A in repeating the level this season (1.01 ERA), although he struggled in his first two outings after a recent promotion to Triple-A (seven runs in 3.2 innings). Given all the trades the Orioles will make, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pop up in the big league bullpen at some point this season. — Schoenfield


Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor

Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi

Mariners grade: B+

This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.

While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.

Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.

In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.

Diamondbacks grade: B

While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.

Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.

Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.

Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents. — Schoenfield

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Last-minute MLB trade deadline intel: What Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing

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Last-minute MLB trade deadline intel: What Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing

The MLB trade season is heading to the homestretch!

While this year’s deals have been a bit slow to develop, there have been intriguing acquisitions, with the Seattle Mariners landing Josh Naylor and the New York Yankees getting Ryan McMahon headlining the early moves.

Now, with less than 48 hours remaining to deal before the 6 p.m. ET deadline arrives Thursday, conversations involving big names, including Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr., continue to circulate through the industry.

Which players will move in the final days? Which teams will go all-in to add the best available players? And which trades will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season? We enlisted ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan to offer their latest intel as the deadline nears.


What are you hearing that could keep things moving in the final hours?

Olney: The New York Mets‘ effort to get better. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the epicenter of the teams looking to part with players, but between now and the deadline, the Mets might be the most aggressive club adding players, looking for a starter who could pitch Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series. Relief pitching and an outfielder — perhaps Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles — are also among their needs.

Passan: The number of teams that want high-leverage relief pitchers — and the relative paucity of them on the market. St. Louis’ Ryan Helsley is the top rental option. And then there is the group of controllable arms who could move but don’t have to: Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, and Tampa Bay’s Pete Fairbanks.

Considering the number of teams that desire impact relief help — the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, both New York teams and the Los Angeles Dodgers — the ones that have it are understandably holding out for a strong return. There are second- and third-tier relievers, sure, but there isn’t enough elite supply for the demand that exists. Which is why San Diego is dangling Robert Suarez, San Francisco is fielding calls on its back-end guys, and even the A’s could conceivably get an offer they can’t refuse for Mason Miller.


Which deal do you think will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season?

Olney: Whichever late-inning reliever is acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies — whether it be Ryan Helsley or Griffin Jax or someone else — Rob Thomson will have to rely on that pitcher heading into the postseason. Jose Alvarado is sidelined in October because of his PED suspension.

Passan: It all depends on teams’ willingness to move players with multiple years of control. The market of impending free agents ranges somewhere between meh and ugh. But if Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore were to go? Duran or Jax? Steven Kwan? All are possible. The cost, at this point, is prohibitive, but the deadline does odd things to front offices. Discomfort can be the most underrated tool at a deadline.


We’ve seen varying activity levels from the World Series favorites. What are you hearing about the last-minute plans for the division leaders?

Passan: The Blue Jays want at least one more reliever after getting Seranthony Dominguez from the Orioles. Detroit wants to shore up the back end of its bullpen and isn’t against nibbling for value on bigger pieces. The Astros want a starting pitcher. The New York Mets will get an arm and a center-field bat. The Brewers won’t do much, unless value falls into their laps. The Dodgers will consider bigger names, with a reliever the top priority.

Olney: In the American League, the World Series favorite means … everybody. The league seeming to be so wide open is driving a lot of the enthusiasm for the Mariners, Texas Rangers and even the Yankees. You can draw up a reasonable path to the World Series for about seven teams in the AL, and this might well fuel some bold moves in the last hours before the deadline.


The wild-card races are tightening. What are you hearing the Chicago Cubs, Phillies, Yankees and Mariners could do next as they try to keep their grip on the top spots?

Olney: The Cubs would love to add a front-line starting pitcher, someone who could effectively replace Justin Steele in their rotation. But maybe more than any team, they could be hamstrung by how thin the market is unless they value the cost of acquiring Joe Ryan or Cease or if they work something out for Merrill Kelly.

The Yankees are focused on adding bullpen help and a right-handed hitting outfielder, such as Harrison Bader. The Phillies need a high-end bullpen pitcher but are also in the mix for Luis Robert Jr. And the Mariners are going to do something for their bullpen — plus, some rival execs still view them as the favorite to land Eugenio Suarez.

Passan: Shane Bieber is another option for the Cubs. The Phillies are among the most aggressive teams in the relief market and will add an arm. The Yankees aren’t as gung ho as they were, say, two weeks ago, but they’re going to backfill with at least one solid reliever.

The Mariners are the deadline wild card, though. They’ve got a cadre of top 100-caliber prospects — eight in all — and the question they’ll ask themselves is: Are we comfortable moving someone like Harry Ford for a rental like Suarez? To this point, the answer has been no. But weird things happen in the final 40 hours before a deadline. And a team really going for it — the Mariners want a bullpen arm, too — is far from the worst thing, particularly when said team has never even made the World Series.


Who are some other available players you are hearing discussed most by front offices?

Passan: Wednesday is the day that teams are hoping to see the asks in return for controllable players come down. If they don’t, those teams will start pivoting to the rental market, understanding that it’s going to be flooded and looking to strike rather than be put in a panicky position over the final 12 hours before the deadline. The big names — Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Luis Robert Jr., Bednar, Helsley, Bieber — have plenty of traction, and most, if not all, will go.

Olney: I’d guess that 75% of the players moved between now and the deadline will be relievers. This will be like a game of musical chairs, as front offices sort through options such as the Minnesota TwinsDanny Coulombe and Griffin Jax, the Rays’ Pete Fairbanks, the Rockies’ Seth Halvorsen, etc. All of the contenders are looking to add relievers, and they are looking at the same players.


Which other teams are you hearing could be the most active before the deadline arrives?

Olney: The Tampa Bay Rays and Diamondbacks figure to be the most prominent to deal players, and the San Diego Padres will do something to augment their offense and try to get back into the October dance.

Passan: The Orioles, even after moving Dominguez and Gregory Soto, have a huge inventory. The D-backs will be busy. The Marlins, with Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and a group of relievers, could play a big role. The Twins have lots to offer. Beyond Duran and Jax, left-hander Coulombe and right-hander Brock Stewart are two relievers with markets, and super-utility man Willi Castro could go, too. The Pirates will be busy. And the Guardians hold a lot of cards with Kwan and Bieber.


What else are you hearing ahead of the deadline?

Olney: A lot of frustration because teams looking to trade prominent players — knowing this year’s market — are holding their asking prices high, and the teams who want to add are trying to wait them out. “It’s a slow-moving market,” one exec said Tuesday night. But at some point, rest assured, the dam will break, and the deals — mostly for relievers — will happen fast and furious.

Passan: The Padres, as always, are toying with doing something big. The Twins continue to have exceptionally high asks on their relief arms. The chance of the Guardians moving Kwan is higher than teams believed a week ago. The Phillies and Mets are being very aggressive. Some teams are looking at players controlled through 2027 and factoring in the possibility that labor discord could significantly impact that season. And the lack of star power that could move will be made up for by the volume of deals.

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Phillies reach deal for Twins’ Duran, sources say

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Phillies reach deal for Twins' Duran, sources say

The Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a trade for Jhoan Duran, one of baseball’s best relievers, sources told ESPN on Wednesday, and paid a high price to the Minnesota Twins to get it done.

According to sources, Minnesota received catcher Eduardo Tait, regarded as a Top 100 prospect, and pitcher Mick Abel, a rookie with six years of team control. They’re ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, among the Phillies’ minor league prospects, per ESPN.

The 27-year-old Duran is known for two wipeout pitches — a fastball with an average velocity of 100.2 mph and a curveball he throws in the mid-80s — and he is among the most dominant closers. David Dombrowski, the Phillies’ head of baseball operations, again aggressively worked to plug a major hole in his bullpen.

The Phillies have a deep and powerful rotation and a lineup comprised of sluggers like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, but their bullpen has been a problem area, again. Jordan Romano, who was signed in the offseason, has struggled, and Jose Alvarado was suspended for 80 games under baseball’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Alvarado will be back to pitch in August, but because of his suspension, he is ineligible to pitch in the playoffs and World Series, if the Phillies get that far.

The Phillies have 16 blown saves this season, tied for fourth-most in the NL. And they’ve struggled to find a permanent closer, as five different players have multiple blown saves, tied for third-most in the majors, only trailing the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, who both have six.

Dombrowski has a long track record of being willing to trade high prices in midseason deals. Last year, he aggressively moved for Carlos Estevez.

The Phillies have an older roster. Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto are eligible for free agency at season’s end, and the general perception within the industry is that the team is in a window to win right now.

Tait, 18, is hitting .251 with 11 homers for Class-A Clearwater. Abel was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2020 and progressed to the big leagues for the first time this season.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan and ESPN Research contributed to this report.

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