A UPS seasonal worker delivers packages on Cyber Monday in New York on Nov. 27, 2023.
Stephanie Keith | Bloomberg | Getty Images
When Matt Kubancik, a small business owner in Louisville, Kentucky, cast his ballot for Donald Trump in November, he was hoping that the Republican nominee’s return to the White House would provide a spark to the economy and lead to reduced prices for gas and groceries.
Instead, the first half-year of Trump’s second term in the White House has been more like a “vacation from hell,” Kubancik said. Guardian Baseball, the baseball goods company he co-founded in 2018, mostly relies on manufacturers in China, which is locked in a full-blown trade war with the U.S.
It didn’t take long for Kubancik to regret his vote. After 20 years as a Republican, Kubancik changed his registration to Democrat last month.
“I’ve been a registered lifelong Republican. I’ve supported independent candidates and Democratic candidates in the state of Kentucky before, but this made it enough to switch parties,” Kubancik said in an interview. “I don’t feel the country is headed down the right path.”
While the stock market has bounced back from a brutal start to the year, thanks largely to the Trump administration pausing its most extreme tariffs announced in April, small retailers that rely on imports to stay afloat are stuck in no-man’s land. Tariffs from China are still at a historically high rate of 30%, coming down at least temporarily from Trump’s prior announcement of 145% after the two countries reached a 90-day truce on May 12.
The big concern is what happens when that three-month agreement expires in August. Both countries have already accused each other of violating the preliminary trade agreement.
Guardian Baseball sells its products on Amazon and in brick-and-mortar stores like Walmart. Even at a rate of 30% for goods from China, its costs are significantly higher than they were before Trump took office. Some small businesses have stopped ordering more inventory or are hitting pause on new product development while they wait to see how the situation evolves. Others have been forced to raise prices because they can no longer afford to digest higher import costs.
The struggles faced by businesses like Guardian Baseball don’t necessarily show up in the data.
Matt Kubancik, who cofounded Guardian Baseball in 2018, said he voted for Trump but changed his party affiliation to Democrat after going through a “vacation from hell.”
According to a survey of 270 business leaders released on Monday from Chief Executive Group, less than 30% of CEOs forecast either a mild or severe recession over the next six months. That’s down from 46% who said the same in May and 62% in April.
And a quarterly report published Tuesday from the National Federation of Independent Business showed that optimism increased slightly in May from April, though “uncertainty is still high among small business owners,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in the release.
U.S. and Chinese officials late Tuesday concluded two days of trade talks in London. Under the preliminary agreement, the U.S. would apply 55% tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump said in a post on Truth Social. The full details of the agreement have yet to be released. Trump said the deal is subject to approval by his administration and China President Xi Jinping.
“President Xi and I are going to work closely to open up China to American Trade,” Trump wrote in a post. “This would be a great WIN for both countries!!!”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports won’t change from their current levels, even as a trade deal between Washington and Beijing has yet to be finalized.
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
‘Everything’s on hold’
Like Kubancik, Alfred Mai says his business has mostly been in wait-and-see mode during the trade dispute, despite the 90-day pause announced in May.
Mai, co-founder of card game company ASM Games, said he grew increasingly worried last month as he thought about the “huge” inventory order he needed to place in time for the crucial holiday shopping period. He told his manufacturing partners to expedite production and speed shipments to the U.S. as fast as possible.
“I have no idea what the situation will look like after the 90-day pause, so I would rather take a gut punch now than to potentially be wiped out in the future by a massive tariff increase,” Mai said in an email.
The order is slated to arrive just as the short-term agreement between the U.S. and China ends. But if rates increase before his shipment makes it stateside, Mai said he may not be able to afford the tax needed to take ownership of his “vital holiday inventory.”
Prices are going up regardless. With a tariff on China of 30%, Mai said he’ll likely have to raise prices by 10% to 20% and hope that consumers are willing to pay.
At Down Under Bedding, which is based just south of Toronto in Canada, Tony Sagar says “everything’s on hold.”
Sagar’s company sources some of its goose down pillows and duvets from China and is considering discontinuing some of its lower-margin items because it can no longer to afford to compete with cheaper rivals.
“We’ve basically stopped any kind of importing or planning,” Sagar said in an interview.
Alfred and Sarah Mai, founded the card game company ASM Games.
Alfred Mai
Last month, Sagar said he was forced to refund a customer who purchased a $150 duvet but refused to pay $277 in additional tariff charges. He ran into the same issue last week after a shopper ordered a $595 duvet that came with a tariff bill of almost $1,200. Sagar said he now contacts “every single U.S. customer” after they place an order to make sure they’re willing to pay extra duties.
In addition to the China levy, the Trump administration placed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada.
“Any time I hear that ding from Shopify, I have to worry about where the order is coming from,” Sagar said.
Greg Shugar, who operates multiple apparel businesses, said the problem with trying to plan for the future is that policy decisions are “all about Trump’s ego.”
“If we understood the true motivation behind the administration we’d know where to go or what to do,” said Shugar, co-owner of women’s clothing company Carrie Amber Intimates and men’s accessory maker Beau Ties Vermont.
Shugar said Trump’s shifting position on tariffs has left him paralyzed on whether or not to move production out of China.
Greg Shugar, owner of Beau Ties Vermont.
Greg Shugar
Last month, he joined a group of other small business owners at an event organized by the National Retail Federation, with a plan to bring their concerns to the White House. The group met with a representative from the Trump administration for about 30 minutes.
Shugar said he left feeling more pessimistic about the tariff situation than before he walked in the door.
“We’re not going to eat a 30% tariff and neither is the consumer,” Shugar said. “So there’s actually no winners, there’s only losers with these tariffs.”
After Walmart warned last month that it will have to raise prices, Trump told the retail giant to “eat the tariffs.”
Kubancik of Guardian Baseball said his company “got a big break” last year when it signed a deal with Walmart to put its products in 3,000 stores.
Now he’s delaying inventory orders from China and taking a more conservative approach to coming up with new products, because the company can’t afford to take on added risk.
“It felt like we finally made it as a brand,” Kubancik said. “And now it feels like a plane nosediving.”
A vehicle Tesla is using for robotaxi testing purposes on Oltorf Street in Austin, Texas, US, on Sunday, June 22, 2025.
Tim Goessman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In an earnings call this week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased an expansion of his company’s fledgling robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area and other U.S. markets.
But California regulators are making clear that Tesla is not authorized to carry passengers on public roads in autonomous vehicles and would require a human driver in control at all times.
“Tesla is not allowed to test or transport the public (paid or unpaid) in an AV with or without a driver,” the California Public Utilities Commission told CNBC in an email on Friday. “Tesla is allowed to transport the public (paid or unpaid) in a non-AV, which, of course, would have a driver.”
In other words, Tesla’s service in the state will have to be more taxi than robot.
Tesla has what’s known in California as a charter-party carrier permit, which allows it to run a private car service with human drivers, similar to limousine companies or sightseeing services.
The commission said it received a notification from Tesla on Thursday that the company plans to “extend operations” under its permit to “offer service to friends and family of employees and to select members of the public,” across much of the Bay Area.
But under Tesla’s permit, that service can only be with non-AVs, the CPUC said.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles told CNBC that Tesla has had a “drivered testing permit” since 2014, allowing the company to operate AVs with a safety driver present, but not to collect fees. The safety drivers must be Tesla employees, contractors or designees of the manufacturer under that permit, the DMV said.
In Austin, Texas, Tesla is currently testing out a robotaxi service, using its Model Y SUVs equipped with the company’s latest automated driving software and hardware. The limited service operates during daylight hours and in good weather, on roads with a speed limit of 40 miles per hour.
Robotaxis in Austin are remotely supervised by Tesla employees, and include a human safety supervisor in the front passenger seat. The service is now limited to invited users, who agree to the terms of Tesla’s “early access program.”
On Friday, Business Insider, citing an internal Tesla memo, reported that Tesla told staff it planned to expand its robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area this weekend. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment on that report.
In a separate matter in California, the DMV has accused Tesla of misleading consumers about the capabilities of its driver assistance systems, previously marketed under the names Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (or FSD).
Tesla now calls its premium driver assistance features, “FSD Supervised.” In owners manuals, Tesla says Autopilot and FSD Supervised are “hands on” systems, requiring a driver at the wheel, ready to steer or brake at all times.
But in user-generated videos shared by Tesla on X, the company shows customers using FSD hands-free while engaged in other tasks. The DMV is arguing that Tesla’s license to sell vehicles in California should be suspended, with arguments ongoing through Friday at the state’s Office of Administrative Hearings in Oakland.
Under California state law, autonomous taxi services are regulated at the state level. Some city and county officials said on Friday that they were out of the loop regarding a potential Tesla service in the state.
Stephanie Moulton-Peters, a member of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, said in a phone interview that she had not heard from Tesla about its plans. She urged the company to be more transparent.
“I certainly expect they will tell us and I think it’s a good business practice to do that,” she said.
Moulton-Peters said she was undecided on robotaxis generally and wasn’t sure how Marin County, located north of San Francisco, would react to Tesla’s service.
“The news of change coming always has mixed results in the community,” she said.
Brian Colbert, another member of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, said in an interview that he’s open to the idea of Tesla’s service being a good thing but that he was disappointed in the lack of communication.
“They should have done a better job about informing the community about the launch,” he said.
Alphabet’s Waymo, which is far ahead of Tesla in the robotaxi market, obtained a number of permits from the DMV and CPUC before starting its driverless ride-hailing service in the state.
Waymo was granted a CPUC driverless deployment permit in 2023, allowing it to charge for rides in the state. The company has been seeking amendments to both its DMV and CPUC driverless deployment permits as it expands its service territory in the state.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg makes a keynote speech during the Meta Connect annual event, at the company’s headquarters in Menlo Park, California, on Sept. 25, 2024.
Manuel Orbegozo | Reuters
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg on Friday said Shengjia Zhao, the co-creator of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, will serve as the chief scientist of Meta Superintelligence Labs.
Zuckerberg has been on a multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence hiring blitz in recent weeks, highlighted by a $14 billion investment in Scale AI. In June, Zuckerberg announced a new organization called Meta Superintelligence Labs that’s made up of top AI researchers and engineers.
Zhao’s name was listed among other new hires in the June memo, but Zuckerberg said Friday that Zhao co-founded the lab and “has been our lead scientist from day one.” Zhao will work directly with Zuckerberg and Alexandr Wang, the former CEO of Scale AI who is acting as Meta’s chief AI officer.
“Shengjia has already pioneered several breakthroughs including a new scaling paradigm and distinguished himself as a leader in the field,” Zuckerberg wrote in a social media post. “I’m looking forward to working closely with him to advance his scientific vision.”
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In addition to co-creating ChatGPT, Zhao helped build OpenAI’s GPT-4, mini models, 4.1 and o3, and he previously led synthetic data at OpenAI, according to Zuckerberg’s June memo.
Meta Superintelligence Labs will be where employees work on foundation models such as the open-source Llama family of AI models, products and Fundamental Artificial Intelligence Research projects.
The social media company will invest “hundreds of billions of dollars” into AI compute infrastructure, Zuckerberg said earlier this month.
“The next few years are going to be very exciting!” Zuckerberg wrote Friday.
Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, speaks on a panel titled Power, Purpose, and the New American Century at the Hill and Valley Forum at the U.S. Capitol on April 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images
Palantir has hit another major milestone in its meteoric stock rise. It’s now one of the 20 most valuable U.S. companies.
The provider of software and data analytics technology to defense agencies saw its stock rise more than 2% on Friday to another record, lifting the company’s market cap to $375 billion, which puts it ahead of Home Depot and Procter & Gamble. The company’s market value was already higher than Bank of America and Coca-Cola.
Palantir has more than doubled in value this year as investors ramp up bets on the company’s artificial intelligence business and closer ties to the U.S. government. Since its founding in 2003 by Peter Thiel, CEO Alex Karp and others, the company has steadily accrued a growing list of customers.
Revenue in Palantir’s U.S. government business increased 45% to $373 million in its most recent quarter, while total sales rose 39% to $884 million. The company next reports results on Aug. 4.
Buying the stock at these levels requires investors to pay hefty multiples. Palantir currently trades for 273 times forward earnings, according to FactSet. The only other company in the top 20 with a triple-digit ratio is Tesla at 175.
With $3.1 billion in total revenue over the past year, Palantir is a fraction the size of the next smallest company by sales among the top 20 by market cap. Mastercard, which is valued at $518 billion, is closest with sales over the past four quarters of roughly $29 billion.