Technology

China’s racing to build its AI chip ecosystem as U.S. curbs bite. Here’s how its supply chain stacks up

Published

1 month ago

June 12, 2025

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Chip engineer handling a wafer.

Sinology | Moment | Getty Images

With the U.S. restricting China from buying advanced semiconductors used in artificial intelligence development, Beijing is placing hopes on domestic alternatives such as Huawei.

The task has been made more challenging by the fact that U.S. curbs not only inhibit China’s access to the world’s most advanced chips, but also restrict availing technology vital for creating an AI chip ecosystem.

Those constraints span the entire semiconductor value chain, ranging from design and manufacturing equipment used to produce AI chips to supporting elements such as memory chips.

Beijing has mobilized tens of billions of dollars to try to fill those gaps, but while it has been able to “brute force” its way into some breakthroughs, it still has a long way to go, according to experts.

“U.S. export controls on advanced Nvidia AI chips have incentivized China’s industry to develop alternatives, while also making it more difficult for domestic firms to do so,” said Paul Triolo, partner and senior vice president for China at advisory firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group.

Here’s how China stacks up against the rest of the world in four key segments needed to build AI chips.

AI chip design

Nvidia is regarded as the world’s leading AI chip company, but it’s important to understand that it doesn’t actually manufacture the physical chips that are used for AI training and computing.

Rather, the company designs AI chips, or more precisely, graphics processing units. Orders of the company’s patented GPU designs are then sent to chip foundries — manufacturers that specialize in the mass production of other companies’ semiconductor products.

While American competitors such as AMD and Broadcom offer varying alternatives, GPU designs from Nvidia are widely recognized as the industry standard. The demand for Nvidia chips is so strong that Chinese customers have continued to buy any of the company’s chips they can get their hands on.

But Nvidia is grappling with Washington’s tightening restrictions. The company revealed in April that additional curbs had prevented it from selling its H20 processor to Chinese clients.

Nvidia’s H20 was a less sophisticated version of its H100 processor, designed specifically to skirt previous export controls. Nevertheless, experts say, it was still more advanced than anything available domestically. But China hopes to change that.

In response to restrictions, more Chinese semiconductor players have been entering the AI processor arena. They’ve included a wide array of upstarts, such as Enflame Technology and Biren Technology, seeking to soak up billions of dollars in GPU demand left by Nvidia.

But no Chinese firm appears closer to providing a true alternative to Nvidia than Huawei’s chip design arm, HiSilicon.

Huawei’s most advanced GPU in mass production is its Ascend 910B. The next-generation Ascend 910C was reportedly expected to begin mass shipments as early as May, though no updates have emerged.

Dylan Patel, founder, CEO and chief analyst at SemiAnalysis, told CNBC that while the Ascend chips remain behind Nvidia, they show that Huawei has been making significant progress.

“Compared to Nvidia’s export-restricted chips, the performance gap between Huawei and the H20 is less than a full generation. Huawei is not far behind the products Nvidia is permitted to sell into China,” Patel said.

He added that the 910B was two years behind Nvidia as of last year, while the Ascend 910C is only a year behind.

But while that suggests China’s GPU design capabilities have made great strides, design is just one aspect that stands in the way of creating a competitive AI chip ecosystem.

AI chip fabrication

To manufacture its GPUs, Nvidia relies on TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip foundry, which produces most of the world’s advanced chips.

TSMC complies with U.S. chip controls and is also barred from taking any chip orders from companies on the U.S. trade blacklist. Huawei was placed on the list in 2019.

That has led to Chinese chip designers like Huawei to enlist local chip foundries, the largest of which is SMIC.

SMIC is far behind TSMC — it’s officially known to be able to produce 7-nanometer chips, requiring less advance tech than TSMC’s 3-nanometer production. Smaller nanometer sizes lead to greater chip processing power and efficiency.

There are signs that SMIC has made progress. The company is suspected to have been behind a 5-nanometer 5G chip for Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro, which had rocked confidence in U.S. chip controls in 2023. The company, however, has a long way to go before it can mass-produce advanced GPUs in a cost-efficient manner.

According to independent chip and technology analyst Ray Wang, SMIC’s known operation capacity is dwarfed by TSMC’s.

“Huawei is a very good chip design company, but they are still without good domestic chipmakers,” Wang said, noting that Huawei is reportedly working on its own fabrication capabilities.

But the lack of key manufacturing equipment stands in the way of both companies.

Advanced Chip equipment

SMIC’s ability to fulfill Huawei’s GPU requirements is limited by the familiar problem of export controls, but in this case, from the Netherlands.

While Netherlands may not have any prominent semiconductor designers or manufacturers, it’s home to ASML, the world’s leading supplier of advanced chipmaking equipment — machines that use light or electron beams to transfer complex patterns onto silicon wafers, forming the basis of microchips.

In accordance with U.S. export controls, the country has agreed to block the sale of ASML’s most advanced ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. The tools are critical to making advanced GPUs at scale and cost-effectively.

EUV is the most significant barrier for Chinese advanced chip production, according to Jeff Koch, an analyst at SemiAnalysis. “They have most of the other tooling available, but lithography is limiting their ability to scale towards 3nm and below process nodes,” he told CNBC.

SMIC has found methods to work around lithography restrictions using ASML’s less advanced deep ultraviolet lithography systems, which have seen comparatively fewer restrictions.

Through this “brute forcing,” producing chips at 7 nm is doable, but the yields are not good, and the strategy is likely reaching its limit, Koch said, adding that “at current yields it appears SMIC cannot produce enough domestic accelerators to meet demand.”

SiCarrier Technologies, a Chinese company working on lithography technology, has reportedly been linked to Huawei.

But imitating existing lithography tools could take years, if not decades, to achieve, Koch said. Instead, China is likely to pursue other technologies and different lithography techniques to push innovation rather than imitation, he added.

AI memory components

While GPUs are often identified as the most critical components in AI computing, they’re far from the only ones. In order to operate AI training and computing, GPUs must work alongside memory chips, which are able to store data within a broader “chipset.”

In AI applications, a specific type of memory known as HBM has become the industry standard. South Korea’s SK Hynix has taken the industry lead in HBM. Other companies in the field include Samsung and U.S.-based Micron.

“High bandwidth memory at this stage of AI progression has become essential for training and running AI models,” said analyst Wang.

As with the Netherlands, South Korea is cooperating with U.S.-led chip restrictions and began complying with fresh curbs on the sale of certain HBM memory chips to China in December.

In response, Chinese memory chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, in partnership with chip-packaging and testing company Tongfu Microelectronics, is in the early stages of producing HBM, according to a report by Reuters.

According to Wang, CXMT is expected to be three to four years behind global leaders in HBM development, though it faces major roadblocks, including export controls on chipmaking equipment.

SemiAnalysis estimated in April that CXMT remained a year away from ramping any reasonable volume.

Chinese foundry Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing is reportedly building a factory to produce HBM wafers. A report from SCMP said that Huawei Technologies had partnered with the firm in producing HBM chips, although the companies did not confirm the partnership.

Huawei has leaned on HBM stockpiles from suppliers like Samsung for use in their Ascend 910C AI processor, SemiAnalysis said in an April report, noting that while the chip was designed domestically, it still relies on foreign products obtained prior to or despite restrictions.

“Whether it be HBM from Samsung, wafers from TSMC, or equipment from America, Netherlands, and Japan, there is a big reliance on foreign industry,” SemiAnalysis said.

Technology

Tesla investors are growing wary of Elon Musk’s futuristic promises

Published

13 hours ago

July 26, 2025

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Tesla investors are growing wary of Elon Musk's futuristic promises

Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks alongside U.S. President Donald Trump to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

At Tesla, vehicle sales are slumping, profits are thinning and revenue from regulatory credit sales are poised to dry up due to Republican-led policy changes.

In the past, CEO Elon Musk’s futuristic promises have convinced investors to look past top and bottom line numbers.

Not now.

Following another fairly dismal earnings report this week, Musk told analysts on the call that Tesla’s electric vehicles will soon become driverless, making money for owners while they sleep. He also said Tesla’s robotaxi service, which the company recently started testing in a limited capacity in Austin, Texas, will expand to other states, with a goal of being able to reach half the U.S. population by year-end, “assuming we have regulatory approvals.”

It didn’t matter.

Tesla shares plummeted 8% on Thursday as investors focused on the immediate challenges facing the company, including the rapid rise of lower-cost EV competitors, particularly in China, and a political backlash against Musk that harmed Tesla’s brand in the U.S. and Europe.

Automotive sales declined 16% year-over-year in the second quarter for the EV maker, with weak sales numbers continuing in Europe and California. Musk said there could be a “few rough quarters” ahead because of the EV credits expiring and President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The stock bounced back some on Friday, gaining 3.5%, but still ended the week down and has now fallen 22% this year, the worst performance among tech’s megacaps. The Nasdaq rose 1% for the week and is up more than 9% in 2025, closing at a record on Friday.

“Look, we love robotaxis. And robots,” wrote analysts at Canaccord Genuity, who recommend buying Tesla’s stock, in a note after the earnings report. “Over time, Tesla is well positioned to benefit from these future-forward opportunities.”

The analysts, however, said that they’re focused on the profit and loss statement, writing: “But we love growth too, in the here and now. We need the P&L dynamics to turn.”

Analysts at Jefferies described the earnings update as “a bit dull.” And Goldman Sachs said Tesla’s robotaxi effort is “still small” with limited technical data points.

Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Canaccord Genuity's Gianarikas: We may have seen the bottom for Tesla, positive acceleration to come

Musk, who has previously called himself “pathologically optimistic,” has been able to sway shareholders and send the stock soaring at times with promises of self-driving cars, humanoid robots and more affordable EVs.

But after a decade of missed self-imposed deadlines on autonomous driving, Wall Street is watching Tesla fall behind Alphabet’s Waymo in the U.S. and Baidu’s Apollo Go in China.

In Tesla’s shareholder deck, the company said the second quarter marked the start of its “transition from leading the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries to also becoming a leader in AI, robotics and related services.” The company didn’t offer any new guidance for growth or profits for the year ahead.

Regulatory hurdles

Business Insider reported on Friday that Tesla told staff its robotaxi service could launch in the San Francisco Bay Area as soon as this weekend.

But Tesla hasn’t applied for permits that would be required to run a driverless ridehailing service in California, CNBC confirmed. The company would first need authorizations from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).

The CPUC told CNBC on Friday, that under existing permits, Tesla can only operate a human-driven chartered vehicle service, not carry passengers in robotaxis.

Waymo driverless vehicles wait at a traffic light in Santa Monica, California, on May 30, 2025.

Daniel Cole | Reuters

On the earnings call, Musk and other Tesla execs claimed the company was working on regulatory approvals to launch in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and other markets, in addition to San Francisco, but offered no details about what would be required.

Within Austin, the company said its robotaxi service had driven 7,000 miles, and that Tesla has been restricting its robotaxis’ to roads with a speed limit of 40 miles per hour. The Austin service involves a small fleet of about 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles equipped with the company’s latest self-driving systems.

The Tesla robotaxis rely on remote supervision by employees in a customer service center, and a human safety supervisor in the front passenger seat, ready to intervene if needed.

Compare that to what Alphabet said on its second-quarter earnings call the same day as Tesla’s results.

“The Waymo Driver has now autonomously driven over 100 million miles on public roads, and the team is testing across more than 10 cities this year, including New York and Philadelphia,” Alphabet said. Meanwhile, Waymo has become significant enough that Alphabet added a category to its Other Bets revenue description in its latest quarterly filing.

“Revenues from Other Bets are generated primarily from the sale of autonomous transportation services, healthcare-related services and internet services,” the filing said. The Other Bets segment remains relatively small, with revenue coming in at $373 million in the quarter.

Regardless of investor skepticism, Musk is more bullish than ever.

On Friday, the world’s richest person posted on his social network X that he thinks Tesla will someday be worth $20 trillion. On the earnings call earlier in the week, he said that when it comes to AI for cars and robots, “Tesla is actually much better than Google by far” and “much better than anyone at real world AI.”

CORRECTION: The Waymo Driver has now autonomously driven over 100 million miles on public roads, according to Alphabet. A previous version misstated the number of miles.

WATCH: Tough quarter for Tesla

Ex-Tesla Board Member: Tough quarter for the EV-maker

Technology

Tesla plans ‘friends and family’ car service in California, regulator says

Published

1 day ago

July 26, 2025

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Tesla plans 'friends and family' car service in California, regulator says

A vehicle Tesla is using for robotaxi testing purposes on Oltorf Street in Austin, Texas, US, on Sunday, June 22, 2025.

Tim Goessman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

In an earnings call this week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased an expansion of his company’s fledgling robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area and other U.S. markets.

But California regulators are making clear that Tesla is not authorized to carry passengers on public roads in autonomous vehicles and would require a human driver in control at all times.

“Tesla is not allowed to test or transport the public (paid or unpaid) in an AV with or without a driver,” the California Public Utilities Commission told CNBC in an email on Friday. “Tesla is allowed to transport the public (paid or unpaid) in a non-AV, which, of course, would have a driver.”

In other words, Tesla’s service in the state will have to be more taxi than robot.

Tesla has what’s known in California as a charter-party carrier permit, which allows it to run a private car service with human drivers, similar to limousine companies or sightseeing services.

The commission said it received a notification from Tesla on Thursday that the company plans to “extend operations” under its permit to “offer service to friends and family of employees and to select members of the public,” across much of the Bay Area.

But under Tesla’s permit, that service can only be with non-AVs, the CPUC said.

The California Department of Motor Vehicles told CNBC that Tesla has had a “drivered testing permit” since 2014, allowing the company to operate AVs with a safety driver present, but not to collect fees. The safety drivers must be Tesla employees, contractors or designees of the manufacturer under that permit, the DMV said.

In Austin, Texas, Tesla is currently testing out a robotaxi service, using its Model Y SUVs equipped with the company’s latest automated driving software and hardware. The limited service operates during daylight hours and in good weather, on roads with a speed limit of 40 miles per hour.

Robotaxis in Austin are remotely supervised by Tesla employees, and include a human safety supervisor in the front passenger seat. The service is now limited to invited users, who agree to the terms of Tesla’s “early access program.”

EV price war is bleeding into robotaxis, intelligent driving: Expert

On Friday, Business Insider, citing an internal Tesla memo, reported that Tesla told staff it planned to expand its robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area this weekend. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment on that report.

In a separate matter in California, the DMV has accused Tesla of misleading consumers about the capabilities of its driver assistance systems, previously marketed under the names Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (or FSD).

Tesla now calls its premium driver assistance features, “FSD Supervised.” In owners manuals, Tesla says Autopilot and FSD Supervised are “hands on” systems, requiring a driver at the wheel, ready to steer or brake at all times.

But in user-generated videos shared by Tesla on X, the company shows customers using FSD hands-free while engaged in other tasks. The DMV is arguing that Tesla’s license to sell vehicles in California should be suspended, with arguments ongoing through Friday at the state’s Office of Administrative Hearings in Oakland.

Under California state law, autonomous taxi services are regulated at the state level. Some city and county officials said on Friday that they were out of the loop regarding a potential Tesla service in the state.

Stephanie Moulton-Peters, a member of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, said in a phone interview that she had not heard from Tesla about its plans. She urged the company to be more transparent.

“I certainly expect they will tell us and I think it’s a good business practice to do that,” she said.

Moulton-Peters said she was undecided on robotaxis generally and wasn’t sure how Marin County, located north of San Francisco, would react to Tesla’s service.

“The news of change coming always has mixed results in the community,” she said.

Brian Colbert, another member of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, said in an interview that he’s open to the idea of Tesla’s service being a good thing but that he was disappointed in the lack of communication.

“They should have done a better job about informing the community about the launch,” he said.

Alphabet’s Waymo, which is far ahead of Tesla in the robotaxi market, obtained a number of permits from the DMV and CPUC before starting its driverless ride-hailing service in the state.

Waymo was granted a CPUC driverless deployment permit in 2023, allowing it to charge for rides in the state. The company has been seeking amendments to both its DMV and CPUC driverless deployment permits as it expands its service territory in the state.

— NBC’s David Ingram reported from San Francisco.

WATCH: Waymo testing self-driving cars with human drivers in New York and Philadelphia

Waymo begins testing self-driving cars with human drivers in New York and Philadelphia

Technology

Mark Zuckerberg names ex-OpenAI employee chief scientist of new Meta AI lab

Published

1 day ago

July 25, 2025

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Mark Zuckerberg names ex-OpenAI employee chief scientist of new Meta AI lab

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg makes a keynote speech during the Meta Connect annual event, at the company’s headquarters in Menlo Park, California, on Sept. 25, 2024.

Manuel Orbegozo | Reuters

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg on Friday said Shengjia Zhao, the co-creator of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, will serve as the chief scientist of Meta Superintelligence Labs.

Zuckerberg has been on a multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence hiring blitz in recent weeks, highlighted by a $14 billion investment in Scale AI. In June, Zuckerberg announced a new organization called Meta Superintelligence Labs that’s made up of top AI researchers and engineers.

Zhao’s name was listed among other new hires in the June memo, but Zuckerberg said Friday that Zhao co-founded the lab and “has been our lead scientist from day one.” Zhao will work directly with Zuckerberg and Alexandr Wang, the former CEO of Scale AI who is acting as Meta’s chief AI officer.

“Shengjia has already pioneered several breakthroughs including a new scaling paradigm and distinguished himself as a leader in the field,” Zuckerberg wrote in a social media post. “I’m looking forward to working closely with him to advance his scientific vision.”