Dodgers desperately need Shohei Ohtani’s arm, but his bat will do — for now
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Alden Gonzalez
The attrition that has plagued the Los Angeles Dodgers was most stark Tuesday night, when Matt Sauer, a 26-year-old journeyman, was called on to pitch bulk innings and wound up throwing 111 pitches, a career high and at least 29 more than he had tallied at any point in the past two years. He was followed by Enrique Hernandez, the team’s effervescent utility player, who recorded the final seven outs of a lopsided loss to the San Diego Padres by throwing crossbody cutters that barely reached 50 mph, marking the first time in at least 67 years that a Dodgers position player had been called on for more than two innings.
Such is the state of the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Its injury rate is once again alarming, the team’s division lead has become miniscule because of it — and the anticipation around Shohei Ohtani‘s return to pitching continues to intensify.
Ohtani took part in his third simulated game hours before the Dodgers deployed the bottom of their depth chart against their biggest rivals, ramping all the way up to 44 pitches. His first start since Aug. 23, 2023, might only be a month away. But the Dodgers vow to remain cautious, no matter how short-handed they might be. Ohtani’s bat is too valuable. His two-way future is too precarious.
“Viewing it on a shorter-term horizon, it’s easy to want to be aggressive and push — I think both from him and from us,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “But we set out to view this as putting him in the best position to pitch over the next nine years and prioritizing longevity, and this first year back, it’s really important for that long-term aspect to not be too aggressive right now.”
Ohtani, though, is forcing the issue. At around 2 p.m. Tuesday, he completed three innings and compiled six strikeouts against a couple of low-level minor leaguers, darting his fastball in the mid- to upper-90s and unleashing a handful of nasty sweepers. Later, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pinned Ohtani’s chances of joining the rotation before the All-Star break at “north of zero” — a sign that the timeline might have accelerated, even if only slightly. Ohtani’s two-way designation affords the luxury of an extra pitcher, allowing the Dodgers to bring him back before he is fully stretched out. The command he is already displaying has only made that more appealing.
But as this process has shown, things can change.
After navigating through a pitching progression toward the tail end of the 2024 regular season, the Dodgers carved out a plan in which Ohtani would essentially stop throwing during the playoffs and pick back up relatively early in the winter. Then Ohtani tore a labrum in his left shoulder in Game 2 of the World Series, necessitating offseason surgery and prompting spring training to essentially qualify as his offseason throwing program.
He paused leading up to the season-opening series in Japan around the middle of March, then built up slowly after the Dodgers returned to the United States. Later, when unforeseen circumstances emerged — an extra-inning game in New York, unfavorable weather in St. Louis — his throwing sessions were pushed back. Ohtani still must extend into the neighborhood of 70 pitches before the Dodgers can even think about unlocking him as a pitcher, even if he won’t initially throw that many in a game. When he does return, he will either be 22 or 23 months removed from a surgery that typically comes with a 12- to 14-month timeline.
His recovery has forced the Dodgers to be nimble, but most of all, to be patient.
“We need him to be healthy,” Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy said. “They’re moving slow, and we’re all happy about that. We obviously want him to be pitching, but we want him to be healthy first and foremost. When you’re doing what he’s doing, it’s so unprecedented that I don’t know if there is a proper timeline. He might be moving faster than what he should be moving right now; we don’t really know that because it’s just never really been done before.”
For as dominant as Ohtani has proved to be as a pitcher — he posted a 2.84 ERA and compiled 542 strikeouts in 428⅓ innings from 2021 to 2023 before suffering a second tear of his ulnar collateral ligament — his impact on offense has become too important to risk.
Since the start of the 2023 season, his last with the Angels, Ohtani ranks first in the majors in homers (121), second in OPS (1.042), fifth in batting average (.304), sixth in stolen bases (90) and within the top 1% in average exit velocity, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage. Last year, he chartered the 50/50 club while becoming the first full-time designated hitter to win an MVP. This year, he’s slashing .292/.386/.625 while on pace for 54 home runs, matching a career high he set the season before.
His stolen-base rate, though, is down to 26 — 33 fewer than what he tallied in 2024. Ohtani stole his 11th base on May 20 and hasn’t recorded one since. His caution on the bases has coincided with the escalation of his pitching rehab. Roberts said he didn’t know if there was a direct correlation, and Ohtani, who rarely does interviews, hasn’t been made available to speak on it. But the drop-off emphasizes the endurance required to hit and pitch simultaneously.
The Dodgers have been guided by that thought.
“I can’t imagine how tiring it is to do both,” Friedman said. “It’s one thing when you’re in that rhythm of it and you are in shape for that. But it’s been a while since he did both, and this is pretty uncharted because we’ve never been around a guy that does both at this level. And so it’s just trying to do everything we can to build up the muscles in the right arm but also build up the endurance from a body standpoint of doing both and not fatiguing him in a way that makes his offense suffer.”
When Ohtani first joined the Dodgers and began his hitting progression in the spring of 2024, almost all of his swings were precisely 70 mph. Later that summer, when he began to play catch with more intensity, he made a habit of guessing the precise velocity of his throws and was almost always right. Brandon McDaniel, who was the Dodgers’ strength and conditioning coach and director of player performance before being elevated to the coaching staff this season, has spent two decades working with elite athletes and has never met one as in tune with his body as Ohtani.
“It’s almost like he has a monitor to his engine, in front, like a dashboard,” McDaniel said.
Most are good at following the scripts mapped out for their rehabs, McDaniel explained, but Ohtani doesn’t seem to need one. His feel for what his body requires in a given moment is unparalleled. And so for as careful as the Dodgers have been with Ohtani’s pitching progression, they’ve also become unafraid that he’ll go too hard and set himself back. Through that, a trust has developed.
“He obviously wants to push; he’s been pushing,” McDaniel said. “But it’s just been such a great balance of taking very calculated strikes of when we’re going to push and when we’re going to add velo and when we’re going to add spin, things like that. And ultimately, because he’s a two-way player, we don’t have a clock. And so when he feels like he’s ready, that’s the first part of the conversation.”
The Dodgers deployed a franchise-record 40 pitchers during the 2024 season, then rode a three-man rotation and continual bullpen games to a championship. This year was supposed to be different, and yet it has been eerily similar. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki, three starters who were expected to front one of the best rotations in the sport, are all out with shoulder-related ailments, joining 11 other pitchers on the injured list. The Dodgers have already used 30 players to pitch, more than any other team in the sport. Their bullpen leads the majors in innings by a wide margin.
But Ohtani looms in the background, his pitching return quickly becoming close enough to envision. The buildup alone has been remarkable. His simulated games, which will continue to grow in volume on a weekly basis, usually end roughly four hours before the first pitch, after which Ohtani navigates a maintenance program on his left shoulder and right elbow while the rest of the Dodgers’ hitters prepare for that night’s starting pitcher. Then, like he used to so often, he grabs a bat and flips a switch.
Ohtani is 4-for-11 with a home run following his three simulated games this season, a snapshot of what’s to come.
“It’s fun to watch him because he enjoys the game so much,” Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia said. “He loves baseball. And when you’re doing both, you have to love it the way he does.”
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David Schoenfield
There’s plenty of history in the rivalry between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s about 116 miles from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park. The two teams been competing for the NL East since 1969. Star players from Tug McGraw to Jerry Koosman to Lenny Dykstra to Pedro Martinez to Zack Wheeler have played for both franchises. Mets fans loathe the Phanatic, and Phillies fans laugh derisively at Mr. Met.
Despite this longevity, the two teams have rarely battled for a division title in the same season. The only years they finished No. 1 and 2 or were battling for a division lead late in the season:
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1986: Mets finished 21.5 games ahead
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2001: Both finished within six games of the Braves
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2006: Mets finished 12 games ahead
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2007: Phillies finished one game ahead
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2008: Phillies finished three games ahead
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2024: Phillies finished six games ahead of Mets and Braves
So it’s a rare treat to see the Mets and Phillies battling for the NL East lead in as New York faces the San Francisco Giants on “Sunday Night Baseball” this week. This season has also been a bit of bumpy ride for both teams, so there is pressure on both front offices to make trade deadline additions in hopes of winning the World Series that has eluded both franchises in recent years despite high payrolls and star-laden rosters. Let’s dig into what both teams need to do before Thursday.
The perfect trade deadline for the Mets
1. Bullpen help
The Mets already acquired hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto from the Orioles, but David Stearns will likely look for another reliever, given that the Mets’ bullpen has struggled since the beginning of June with a 5.02 ERA. In my grade of the trade, I pointed out the importance for the Mets to add left-handed relief. Think of potential playoff opponents and all the key left-handed batters: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the Phillies; Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy on the Dodgers; Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong on the Cubs.
Soto has held lefties to a .138 average this season, and it does help that the Mets have two lefty starters in David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They also just activated Brooks Raley after he had been out since early 2024. If he is back to his 2022-23 form, when he had a 2.74 ERA and held lefties to a .209 average, maybe the Mets will feel good enough about their southpaw relief.
They could still use another dependable righty reliever. Mets starters were hot early on, but they weren’t going deep into games, and outside of Peterson, the lack of longer outings is a big reason the bullpen ERA has skyrocketed. Carlos Mendoza has overworked his setup guys, including Huascar Brazoban and Reed Garrett. Brazoban has never been much of a strike thrower anyway, and Garrett similarly faded in the second half last season. Adding a high-leverage righty to set up Edwin Diaz makes sense. Candidates there include David Bednar of the Pirates, Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals, Griffin Jax or Jhoan Duran of the Twins, or maybe a longer shot such as Emmanuel Clase or Cade Smith of the Guardians.
2. Think big, as in Eugenio Suarez
Mark Vientos was a huge key to last season’s playoff appearance and trip to the NLCS, hitting .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs after beginning the season in Triple-A. He hasn’t been able to replicate that performance, though, hitting .224/.279/.354. That has led to a revolving door at third base, with Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio starting games there in July. Overall, Mets third basemen ranked 24th in the majors in OPS entering Friday.
Lack of production at third is one reason the Mets’ offense has been mediocre rather than very good — they’re averaging 4.38 runs per game, just below the NL average of 4.43. They could use another premium bat, given the lack of production they’ve received from center field and catcher (not to mention Francisco Lindor‘s slump since the middle of June). Maybe Francisco Alvarez‘s short stint back in Triple-A will get his bat going now that he’s back in the majors, but going after Suarez to hit behind Juan Soto and Pete Alonso would lengthen the lineup.
3. Reacquire Harrison Bader to play CF
Tyrone Taylor is a plus defender in center and has made several incredible catches, but he’s hitting .209/.264/.306 for a lowly OPS+ of 65. Old friend Bader is having a nice season with the Twins, hitting .251/.330/.435. Maybe that’s a little over his head, given that he had a .657 OPS with the Mets last season, but he would still be an offensive upgrade over Taylor without losing anything on defense — and he wouldn’t cost a top-tier prospect. The Mets could still mix in Jeff McNeil against the really tough righties, but adding Suarez and Bader would give this lineup more of a championship feel.
The perfect deadline for the Phillies
1. Acquire Jhoan Duran
Like the Mets, the Phillies already made a move here, signing free agent David Robertson, who had a 3.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 72 innings last season with the Rangers. On paper, he should help, but he’s also 40 and will need a few games in the minors to get ready. Even with Robertson, the Phillies could use some more help here. They’ll eventually get Jose Alvarado back from his 60-game PED suspension, but Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason. At least the Mets have an elite closer in Edwin Diaz. Jordan Romano leads the Phillies with eight saves and has a 6.69 ERA. Matt Strahm is solid, but more useful as a lefty setup guy than a closer (think of all those left-handed batters we listed for the Mets, then sub out Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo for Harper and Schwarber).
And the Phillies’ bullpen has consistently come up short in big games. Think back to last year’s NLDS, when Jeff Hoffman lost twice to the Mets. Or 2023, when Craig Kimbrel lost two games in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. Or the 2022 World Series, when Yordan Alvarez hit the huge home run off Alvarado in the clinching Game 6.
So, yes, a shutdown closer is a must. Maybe that’s Bednar, maybe Clase if he’s available (although he struggled in last year’s postseason), maybe Helsley. But the guy Dave Dombrowski should go all-in to get: Duran. The window for the Phillies is slowly closing as the core players get older. Duran is under control through 2027, so he’s a fit for now and the immediate future. The trade cost might be painful, but with his 100 mph fastball and splitter, he has the elite stuff you need in October.
2. Add Ryan O’Hearn
The Phillies have received below-average production from both left field (mostly Max Kepler) and center field (Brandon Marsh/Johan Rojas platoon). The center-field market is pretty thin except for Bader or maybe a gamble on Luis Robert Jr. I’d pass on Robert, stick with the Marsh/Rojas platoon and upgrade left field with O’Hearn, who is hitting .281/.375/.452 for the Orioles. He isn’t the perfect fit since, like Kepler, he hits left-handed and struggles against lefties, but he’s a patient hitter with a much better OBP, and he’s passable in the outfield.
3. Acquire Willi Castro
Here’s the bottom line: The Phillies have to admit that some of their long-term position players aren’t getting the job done — such as second baseman Bryson Stott, who has a 77 OPS+. Third baseman Alec Bohm has been better but also has a below-average OPS.
That makes Castro a nice fit. He’s not a star, but he’s an above-average hitter, a switch-hitter who plays all over the field for the Twins, having started games at five different positions. He could play second or third or start in left field against a lefty. Philadelphia could even start him in center instead of Rojas, although that would be a defensive hit. Bottom line: Castro would give the Phillies a lot more versatility — or a significant offensive upgrade over Stott if they start him every day at second.
Note as well: Stott has hit .188 in 33 career postseason games. Bohm has hit .214 with two home runs in 34 postseason games. The Phillies need a different offensive look for October.
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