Trump’s Iran remarks let him still play ‘good cop’ to Netanyahu’s ‘bad cop’
Reading between the lines of President Trump’s social media posts is an art, not a science.
But whether by intention or not, there is always insight in his posts. His Truth Social words reacting to the Israeli attack on Iran are intentionally ambiguous.
When was he told by Israel that they would strike Iran? Did he give them a green light, or was it more amber?
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Was his insistence, as recently as 48 hours ago, that a strike would “blow” the chances of a deal with Iran actually just a ruse to afford Israel the element of surprise? That’s what the Israelis are claiming.
Mr Trump said he ‘gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal’. Pic: Reuters
Clearly, President Trump does not want to give the impression that his ‘don’t strike’ advice was ignored by Netanyahu.
His social posts are filled with enough ambiguity to allow him to maintain his good cop stance alongside Netanyahu, the bad cop: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it’…”
Trump’s ‘art of the deal’, whether it be in real estate or nuclear weapon negotiations, requires unpredictability and ambiguity.
Both of those, as it happens, are useful to hide ineptitude too. The line between diplomatic masterstroke and disastrous diplomacy is thin.
The president is claiming that the Israeli attacks make a deal more, not less, likely because of the pressure Iran will now be under.
Maybe, but many regional watchers are very unconvinced.
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An alternative path to negotiations for Iran would be to go fully down the North Korea route, comforted in the knowledge that China – as a big Iranian oil customer – and Russia – as a weapons customer – will be on side.
Trump may think that the pressure of bombardment will force Iran to heel. But the other pressure the Iranian supreme leader is under is the pressure of survival.
Self-preservation necessitates the Iranian response that we’re now seeing before any prospect of renewed negotiations can come.
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Iran attacks analysed
The Israelis and the Americans are calculating that Iran and its proxies are now sufficiently degraded, and so the response will be limp and containable.
They might be right in terms of conventional attacks, but asymmetrical operations are another fear – against Israeli targets or more broadly, softer Western targets in the region or beyond.
Step back from the chaos of the past 24 hours. The broader picture here is regime change.
Netanyahu said as much in his Friday speech, calling for an internal uprising. He ignored history – which suggests people tend to rally round their flag – but more than that, that foreign air strikes alone don’t work.
Look at Libya in 1986, Iraq in 1991, or Yugoslavia in 1999.
Read more:
Nuclear threat wasn’t only reason Israel attacked Iran
How the attacks could impact global economy
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Netanyahu wants to go further. Will he take out the supreme leader? Trump does not want another full-scale conflict in the Middle East. Of all the things he is accused of being, a hawkish warmonger he is not.
But there are plenty of politicians on Capitol Hill – on both sides of the divide – who support regime change in Iran.
I was at an event in Congress in December organised by Iranian exiled opposition leaders. I was struck by the cross-party support for regime change in one form or another.
Israel this weekend announced that its military had achieved total air superiority from western Iran to the capital Tehran. That’s remarkable.
Could Trump be persuaded to pursue regime change? Peace, eventually, through strength? His motto adapted.
We are at yet another unsettlingly tense moment for the region.
The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal, says Donald Trump.
The announcement was made as the US president met European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen at one of his golf resorts in Scotland.
Speaking after talks in Turnberry, Mr Trump said the EU deal was the “biggest deal ever made” and it will be “great for cars”.
The US will impose 15% tariffs on EU goods into America, after Mr Trump had threatened a 30% levy.
He said there will be an EU investment of $600bn in the US, the bloc will buy $750bn in US energy and will also purchase US military equipment.
Mr Trump had earlier said the main sticking point was “fairness”, citing barriers to US exports of cars and agriculture.
He went into the talks demanding fairer trade with the 27-member EU and threatening steep tariffs to achieve that, while insisting the US will not go below 15% import taxes.
For months, Mr Trump has threatened most of the world with large tariffs in the hope of shrinking major US trade deficits with many key trading partners, including the EU.
Ms von der Leyen said the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, saying it would help rebalance trade between the two large trading partners.
In case there was no deal and the US had imposed 30% tariffs from 1 August, the EU has prepared counter-tariffs on €93bn (£81bn) of US goods.
Ahead of their meeting on Sunday, Ms von der Leyen described Mr Trump as a “tough negotiator and dealmaker”.
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At least 11 people have been stabbed at a Walmart supermarket in Michigan, with six in a critical condition.
Officials say a suspect is in custody – and at this stage, it is believed the attack was a “random act” that involved a folding-style knife near the checkout area.
Sheriff Michael Shea told reporters: “Eleven is 11 too many, but thank God it wasn’t more.”
Pic: AP
The suspect, who is from Michigan, is not known to police – and was captured within three minutes thanks to “citizen involvement”.
The attack unfolded in Traverse City – and Tiffany DeFell, who was in the car park at the time, described scenes of chaos.
“It was really scary. Me and my sister were just freaking out,” she said. “This is something you see out of the movies.”
Beyond the six people in a critical condition, it is believed the remaining five were seriously hurt. All 11 are still being treated in hospital.
Pic: AP
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said: “Our thoughts are with the victims and the community reeling from this brutal act of violence.”
A Walmart spokesperson added that the retailer is working closely with law enforcement.
“Violence like this is unacceptable. Our thoughts are with those who were injured and we’re thankful for the swift action of first responders,” a statement said.
Pic: AP
At this stage, the ages of the victims is unclear – but it is not thought any of the victims were Walmart employees.
Traverse City is about 255 miles northwest of Detroit.
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