Reading between the lines of President Trump’s social media posts is an art, not a science.
But whether by intention or not, there is always insight in his posts. His Truth Social words reacting to the Israeli attack on Iran are intentionally ambiguous.
When was he told by Israelthat they would strike Iran? Did he give them a green light, or was it more amber?
Was his insistence, as recently as 48 hours ago, that a strike would “blow” the chances of a deal with Iran actually just a ruse to afford Israel the element of surprise? That’s what the Israelis are claiming.
Image: Mr Trump said he ‘gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal’. Pic: Reuters
Clearly, President Trump does not want to give the impression that his ‘don’t strike’ advice was ignored by Netanyahu.
His social posts are filled with enough ambiguity to allow him to maintain his good cop stance alongside Netanyahu, the bad cop: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it’…”
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Trump’s ‘art of the deal’, whether it be in real estate or nuclear weapon negotiations, requires unpredictability and ambiguity.
Both of those, as it happens, are useful to hide ineptitude too. The line between diplomatic masterstroke and disastrous diplomacy is thin.
The president is claiming that the Israeli attacks make a deal more, not less, likely because of the pressure Iran will now be under.
Maybe, but many regional watchers are very unconvinced.
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An alternative path to negotiations for Iran would be to go fully down the North Korea route, comforted in the knowledge that China – as a big Iranian oil customer – and Russia – as a weapons customer – will be on side.
Trump may think that the pressure of bombardment will force Iran to heel. But the other pressure the Iranian supreme leader is under is the pressure of survival.
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Iran attacks analysed
The Israelis and the Americans are calculating that Iran and its proxies are now sufficiently degraded, and so the response will be limp and containable.
They might be right in terms of conventional attacks, but asymmetrical operations are another fear – against Israeli targets or more broadly, softer Western targets in the region or beyond.
Step back from the chaos of the past 24 hours. The broader picture here is regime change.
Netanyahu said as much in his Friday speech, calling for an internal uprising. He ignored history – which suggests people tend to rally round their flag – but more than that, that foreign air strikes alone don’t work.
Look at Libya in 1986, Iraq in 1991, or Yugoslavia in 1999.
Netanyahu wants to go further. Will he take out the supreme leader? Trump does not want another full-scale conflict in the Middle East. Of all the things he is accused of being, a hawkish warmonger he is not.
But there are plenty of politicians on Capitol Hill – on both sides of the divide – who support regime change in Iran.
I was at an event in Congress in December organised by Iranian exiled opposition leaders. I was struck by the cross-party support for regime change in one form or another.
Israel this weekend announced that its military had achieved total air superiority from western Iran to the capital Tehran. That’s remarkable.
Could Trump be persuaded to pursue regime change? Peace, eventually, through strength? His motto adapted.
We are at yet another unsettlingly tense moment for the region.
A powerful 8.8-magnitude earthquake has struck off Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, causing a tsunami.
A tsunami of up to four metres (13 feet) was recorded in Kamchatka Peninsula, leading to evacuations and damaging buildings, officials said.
Tsunami warnings have been issued for Japan, the Philippines, Hawaii and parts of Alaska in the US.
The Honolulu Department of Emergency Management in Hawaii has called for the evacuation of some coastal areas, writing on X: “Take Action! Destructive tsunami waves expected.”
The first waves in Hawaii are expected to hit at 7pm local time (6am UK time).
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has said waves of one to three meters (three to 10 feet) above tide level were possible along some coastal areas of Hawaii, Chile, Japan and the Solomon Islands.
Kamchatka Governor Vladimir Solodov had earlier said: “Today’s earthquake was serious and the strongest in decades of tremors.”
Several people in the region sought medical assistance following the quake, Oleg Melnikov, regional health minister told Russia’s Tass state news agency.
“Unfortunately, there are some people injured during the seismic event. Some were hurt while running outside, and one patient jumped out of a window. A woman was also injured inside the new airport terminal,” Mr Melnikov said.
Russia’s Tass news agency reported from the biggest city nearby, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, that many people ran out into the street, while cabinets toppled inside homes, mirrors were broken, cars swayed on roads and balconies on buildings shook noticeably.
Power outages and mobile phone service failures were also reported in the capital of the Kamchatka region.
The first tsunami wave hit the coastal area of Severo-Kurilsk, the main settlement on Russia’s Kuril Islands in the Pacific, according to the local governor Valery Limarenko.
He said residents were safe and staying on high ground until the threat of a repeat wave was gone.
A regional branch of Russia’s geophysical service has said that “significant, noticeable” aftershocks with magnitudes of up to 7.5 after expected to continue for at least another month.
Japan issued a tsunami warning, saying it expects waves as high as three metres to arrive along large coastal areas along the Pacific Ocean.
Image: Waves off the coast of the Hokkaido Prefecture in Japan after the tsunami warning was issued. Pic: AP
It has ordered the evacuation of some areas.
The National Tsunami Warning Center, based in Alaska, issued a tsunami warning for parts of the Alaska Aleutian Islands.
A tsunami warning also was extended to the US state of Hawaii, with the National Weather Service’s Pacific Tsunami Warning Center saying a tsunami from the quake had been generated that could cause damage along the coastlines of all the Hawaiian islands.
A tsunami “watch” was issued for portions of the West Coast, including California, Oregon, and Washington.
The US Geological Survey said the earthquake was shallow at a depth of 19.3 km (12 miles), and was centred about 125 km (80 miles) east-southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, a city of 165,000 along the coast of Avacha Bay. It revised the magnitude up twice from 8.0 and 8.7 to 8.8 earlier.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s disaster management agency has warned that the country’s coastal areas could expect “strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges at the shore”.
In a national advisory alert, Civil Defence New Zealand said there was no immediate need to evacuate but said citizens should stay away from beaches and shore areas.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Donald Trump has claimed billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein “stole” prominent accuser Virginia Giuffre and other young women from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
Ms Giuffre became a household name after she sued Prince Andrew for sexual abuse in August 2021 – saying he had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend Epstein.
Mr Trump made his remarks about Ms Giuffre as his administration has faced growing pressure in recent weeks, including from within his “MAGA” base, to release files related to Epstein after he promised to do so during his 2024 presidential campaign.
The US president was speaking to reporters on Tuesday when he was asked about comments he made over the weekend about a falling-out with Epstein over employees taken from his business.
“He took people that worked for me. And I told him, ‘Don’t do it anymore.’ And he did it,” Mr Trump told reporters while on board Air Force One as he returned to the US from Scotland.
“I said, ‘Stay the hell out of here’,” the US president added.
Image: Prince Andrew and Virginia Giuffre in 2001. Pic: Shutterstock
Pressed about whether any of the employees he referred to were young women, Mr Trump said many of them worked in the spa at Mar-a-Lago.
“The answer is yes, they were in the spa,” he said. “I told him, I said, ‘Listen, we don’t want you taking our people, whether it was spa or not spa.’ … And he was fine. And then not too long after that, he did it again.”
Asked if Ms Giuffre was one of the employees poached by Epstein, the US president replied: “I think she worked at the spa… I think so. I think that was one of the people. He stole her, and by the way, she had no complaints about us, as you know, none whatsoever.”
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Trump dismisses Epstein ‘witch hunt’
The White House said in a statement last week that Mr Trump banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago because he was acting like a “creep”.
Epstein took his own life in a Manhattan prison cell in August 2019 as he awaited trial on sex trafficking charges.
On Tuesday, lawyer’s for his former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who is serving 20 years in prison for recruiting young girls for the financier, said that they are open to her answering more questions from US Congress if she is granted immunity from future prosecution.
However a spokeswoman for the House Oversight Committee, which requested the interview with Maxwell, said the panel would not consider granting the immunity she requested.
Image: Undated picture of Ghislaine Maxwell with Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: US Department of Justice
The former British socialite was interviewed inside a Florida courthouse by US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche last week.
Officials have not publicly disclosed what she said.
Mr Blanche had earlier said that Maxwell would be interviewed because of Mr Trump’s directive to gather and release any credible evidence about others who may have committed crimes in relation to the Epstein case.
Separately, Maxwell’s lawyers have urged the Supreme Court to review her conviction, saying she did not receive a fair trial.
They also say that one way she would testify “openly and honestly, in public”, is in the event of a pardon by Mr Trump, who has told reporters that such a move is within his rights but that he has not been not asked to make it.
Image: Virginia Giuffre in 2019. File pic: AP
What had Ms Giuffre said about Mar-a-Lago?
Ms Giuffre, who took her own life in April, claimed Maxwell spotted her while she was working as a spa attendant at Mar-a-Lago when she was a teenager in 2000.
She added that Maxwell hired her as Epstein’s masseuse, which led to sexual abuse.
She accused Epstein of pressuring her into having sex with powerful men.
Why is the Epstein case such a problem for Trump?
Rumours have circulated since Epstein’s death about who he may have supplied underage girls to and who visited his private island.
Some of those rumours quickly spiralled into conspiracy theories, which Mr Trump fanned the flames of during his campaign for a second term.
Mr Trump promised to release more Epstein files to the public if he was elected president for a second time – but is now facing a backlash from his voter base after carrying out a complete U-turn on the move.
Disgraced hip hop mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs has asked a judge to release him on a $50m bond as he waits to be sentenced for prostitution-related offences.
Combs’s lawyer has argued that conditions at the Metropolitan Detention Centre in Brooklyn are dangerous and noted that others convicted of similar offences were typically released before sentencing.
“Sean Combs should not be in jail for this conduct,” Marc Agnifilo said in a court filing on Tuesday.
“In fact, he may be the only person currently in a United States jail for being any sort of John, and certainly the only person in jail for hiring adult male escorts for him and his girlfriend.”
A “John” in the US is a slang term for somebody who hires a prostitute.
A spokesperson for the US attorney’s office in Manhattan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Prosecutors have previously insisted he remains a flight risk and should therefore not be granted bail.
The 55-year-old, one of the most influential hip-hop producers of all time, faces up to a decade in prison after he was convicted earlier this month of two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution.
The charges relate to how he flew people around the US, including his girlfriends and male sex workers, for sexual encounters.
Image: Combs knelt at his chair and appeared to pray after the verdicts
Combs was cleared of three more serious charges – two for sex trafficking and one for racketeering conspiracy – following his landmark trial in New York.
A conviction on one of those charges could have put him in prison for life.
Immediately after he was acquitted of those charges on 2 July, Mr Agnifilo had asked that Combs be released on bond.
But Judge Arun Subramanian denied it, saying Combs at the time had not met the burden of showing by clear and convincing evidence a “lack of danger to any person or the community”.
Combs is the latest celebrity inmate to be locked up at MDC Brooklyn, the only federal jail in New York City, joining a list that includes R Kelly, Ghislaine Maxwell and cryptocurrency fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried.