College realignment intel: Texas State, cryptic posts and the Pac-12’s next move
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
In the cloak-and-dagger world of conference realignment, clues to potential moves can manifest in strange places.
One emerged last week via an X account with 313 followers promoting Texas State tailback Lincoln Pare for the Heisman Trophy.
The account included a picture, cribbed from the Instagram story of the Texas State president, of two beavers floating in the San Marcos River. And it noted the potential realignment ramifications — “Beavers in the San Marcos River” — by including a scratching chin emoji that hinted at the possibility of Texas State joining Oregon State in the Pac-12. (OSU’s nickname is, of course, the Beavers, and the San Marcos River runs through the bustling town south of Austin where Texas State resides.)
This likely would have faded into the background of the social-media-sphere if Texas State president Kelly Damphousse hadn’t reposted it on June 10. That set off a spark in the wake of a regularly scheduled Pac-12 meeting earlier in the week when Texas State’s candidacy was a focus of discussion. (The Pac-12 declined comment for this story.)
So what’s next for the Pac-12? And what ripples could buzz through the kinetic realignment landscape? Here’s what could be coming in the next wave of realignment, which is expected to occur outside of the power conferences.
What’s next for the Pac-12?
Texas State is the heavy favorite, per ESPN sources, to be issued a formal Pac-12 invitation. The league is still engaged with other schools, per sources, but Texas State has clearly emerged at the forefront of that group.
On July 1, the buyout for Texas State to leave the Sun Belt for the 2026-27 season will rise from $5 million to $10 million. This is obviously a bigger motivator for Texas State than the Pac-12, but it’s seemingly a significant enough deadline to trigger action.
For the Pac-12 to bring in a new partner in a time of financial uncertainty for the league, it would make sense to offer Texas State prior to July 1. After all, the Pac-12 needs an eighth football member for 2026, so they have their own deadline looming.
In realignment, of course, nothing is official until it’s signed. And nothing is formal until it’s completed. So with Texas State and the Pac-12, sources said the best way to explain the courtship is that the league is currently exploring making an offer in the upcoming weeks.
Texas State has loomed for months as the favorite to join the league and was prominently discussed in the Pac-12’s virtual meeting earlier this week. It has been the league’s top target for months and is expected to have voting support, as the league’s presidents are enamored with a foothold in the state and Damphousse’s leadership.
Texas State is booming as a university with an enrollment of more than 40,000, and it boasts a lot of tenets of football potential, with a rich local talent base and a rising young coach, G.J. Kinne, at the helm.
The league’s presidents won’t vote on Texas State until they are ready for the process to unfold in rapid-fire succession. That’s expected to come before July 1. Texas State turned down a verbal offer from the Mountain West last fall, which athletic director Don Coryell called “preliminary discussions with an interested conference.”
Texas State, if the Pac-12 process unfolds as expected, would be the league’s ninth member overall and eighth football member. Part of the feeling of inevitability of the invitation is tied to necessity. The league needs to grow to eight football members in order to qualify as an FBS conference. (Gonzaga is the non-football member.) Internally at the Pac-12, Texas State has long been viewed as the best readily available option for that eighth spot.
The exit fee looms as a significant motivator, as Texas State would join to start the 2026 season.
What would an offer look like? Well, Damphousse’s social media hinted at the expectations of that again. In April, he tweeted about his love of lobster bisque: “People sometimes think that I’d be happy with half a bowl of soup. After all, a cup of soup is better than no soup at all. But for me, it’s a full bowl or nothing.”
That line was in response to speculation that Texas State would go to the Pac-12 for part of a media share. It appears Damphousse desires a full one.
It’s a reasonable expectation considering Gonzaga will be a full member of the conference in terms of media rights, despite not fielding a football team. However, Gonzaga won’t share fully in other football-related revenue.
Where does the Pac-12 go next?
The Pac-12 has flailed a bit since initially adding Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State last year. It failed to add UNLV and Air Force, which stayed in the Mountain West for bigger slices of the pie, before adding Utah State.
The league’s goal was to add schools from the AAC, but Tulane had little interest and an initial courtship to add Memphis hit a hard stop because of finances. The exit fee to leave the AAC prior to the 27-month mark was estimated around $25 million. The Pac-12 offered only about $2.5 million to help with the buyout, which was rejected.
Where the Pac-12 goes beyond the eighth member is heavily tied to some clarity on the league’s financial future. The league’s television deal, with at least three partners, is expected to come together in the coming weeks. The timing of that deal, however, is not necessarily tied to the looming announcement of an eighth football-playing school.
In April, the Pac-12 agreed to a deal with the CW, ESPN and CBS to show the 13 home football games involving Oregon State and Washington State in 2025. Those partnerships are not binding into 2026, but Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould said previously the conference was looking for partners in 2025 that expressed interested in longer-term affiliations.
The finances from a new TV deal are expected to be below what the league’s consultants pitched schools initially. In the wake of the initial flurry of schools going to the league, ESPN reported schools were shown projected revenue from a TV deal north of $10 million per school, but conditions have changed.
That number projects under $10 million for the new deal starting in 2026 but is still expected to be more than those schools would have received had they remained in the Mountain West. The other financial variable is related to the buyouts for the five MW schools.
In September, the Pac-12 filed a lawsuit in federal court challenging the legality of a “poaching penalty” included in a football scheduling agreement it signed with the Mountain West in December 2023. It was a step the Pac-12 took to mitigate or avoid paying $55 million to the Mountain West, which the latter believes it is owed as result of its five schools leaving for the Pac-12. On top of that, there are individual buyouts those schools owe the Mountain West, which could collectively cost the schools more than $70 million.
Earlier this year, the Pac-12 — along with Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State — entered mediation with the Mountain West related to these fees, and it’s unclear how productive that process has been. Wherever things net out will likely factor into the conference’s next steps.
What’s next for Memphis?
In many ways, Memphis looms as the most interesting chess piece for future realignment outside of the power leagues. It has a strong basketball program, 11 consecutive years of bowl eligibility in football and significant outside financial support available.
There doesn’t appear to be much immediate interest in Memphis from the power leagues, per sources. And that remains Memphis’ ultimate goal, to get to the other side of the river.
If Memphis can’t figure out a way into a power league in the next few years – and there’s no imminent realignment moves expected at that level – there’s likely to be a further exploration of some type of split conference affiliation.
Pac-12 officials have discussed, per sources, Memphis coming on as a football-only member. This idea was made public in reports in the fall by USA Today. The rest of that athletic department’s sports would go to the Big East. This would allow Memphis to maximize basketball revenue against strong competition and save on the travel of nonrevenue sports going out West.
The calculus in Memphis’ decision-making will depend on myriad factors. That includes the amount of the media deals in the Pac-12 and what happens with that league’s mediation with the Mountain West.
Memphis made $11 million all-in in the AAC last year. That’s a number expected to be ahead of what the Pac-12 will pay its full members.
What would a combination look like? (The new Big East deal is expected to dole out nearly $7 million per school annually, so the Memphis question would be whether its added inventory could grow the pie to keep that number whole.)
Memphis is such a crucial piece to the cluster of leagues outside the power conferences, as it’s one of the AAC’s bell cows. And a Memphis departure could create potential ripples, which is why its upcoming moves are the linchpin of any significant upcoming movement.
The expectation in the Pac-12 is that no movement for Memphis to the Pac-12/Big East would be expected to be seriously discussed until at least a 2027-28 start date.
What would be the dominoes of the Pac-12 adding Texas State?
While sources stress there has been no formal invitation yet for Texas State, the move has reached the point where the Sun Belt is preparing for a departure.
In the fall, when Texas State was flirting with other leagues, the Sun Belt had started to put together contingency plans. That included conversations, per sources, that established Louisiana Tech as the favorite over several other targets, including Western Kentucky, if Texas State were to leave. There would still need to be more discussion and presidential action before any addition.
Louisiana Tech’s location aids it here, as the Sun Belt plays in divisions in football and a Texas State departure would mean a vacancy in the West.
The early appeal of Louisiana Tech that has been talked about, per sources, is that it has the geographic location to create natural rivalries and easy travel with ULM, Louisiana and Southern Miss. All are in the same geographic footprint, and Louisiana Tech brings a strong tradition in baseball and softball, which are valued by the Sun Belt.
The Sun Belt’s realignment strategy for years has been to double-down on regional rivalries, and Louisiana Tech would fall into that category.
Western Kentucky would be attractive because of the program’s strong history in football and long-standing success in men’s basketball. It would have some support from schools in the East, but the early read is that Louisiana Tech is ahead.
Per the Conference USA bylaws, a departing school would owe two years of revenue distribution and need to buy back the grant of rights. For a school to leave for 2026, the cost projects to be more than $5 million.
Conference USA officials are concerned enough about the potential ripple to their level that they’ve begun strategizing behind the scenes to replace a member school being poached.
If Louisiana Tech or another school departed Conference USA and the league was to expand from 10 members, the favorite for the spot in Conference USA is Tarleton State University. That school has shown a significant financial commitment to athletics.
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Bradford Doolittle
The initial 2025 MLB All-Star Game rosters are out, the product of the collaborative process between fans, players and the league. How did this annual confab do?
We already know that injuries will prevent some of these selectees from appearing in Atlanta, and replacement choices will be announced in the coming days. By the end of this post-selection period, we’ll wind up with something like 70 to 75 All-Stars for this season.
These first-draft rosters contain 65 players, the odd number stemming from the decision to send Clayton Kershaw to the festivities as a “Legend” pick. First reaction: Baseball’s newest member of the 3,000 strikeout club has earned everything he gets.
Now, on to the nitpicking.
American League
Biggest oversight: Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ lone representative on the initial rosters is outfielder Byron Buxton, a worthy selection. Ryan (8-4, 2.76 ERA) fell into a group of similar performers including Kansas City’s Kris Bubic and the Texas duo of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. Bubic and deGrom made it, which is great, and Bubic in particular is quite a story.
But Ryan and Eovaldi didn’t make it, and both were probably a little more deserving that Seattle’s Bryan Woo, whose superficial numbers (8-4, 2.77) are very close to Ryan’s. But Woo plays in a more friendly pitching park, and the under-the-hood metrics favor Ryan.
The main takeaway: If this is the biggest discrepancy, the process worked well.
Second-biggest oversight: Many-way tie between several hitters
The every-team-gets-a-player rule, along with positional requirements, always knocks out worthy performers from teams with multiple candidates. Thus, a few picks on the position side might have gone differently.
The Rays are playing so well they probably deserve more than one player. Their most deserving pick made it — infielder Jonathan Aranda — along with veteran second baseman Brandon Lowe. Infielders such as J.P. Crawford (Seattle), Isaac Paredes (Houston) and Zach McKinstry (Detroit) had good cases to make it ahead of Lowe, whose power numbers (19 homers, 54 RBIs) swayed the players.
While acknowledging that Gunnar Henderson has had a disappointing season, I still think he deserved to be the Orioles’ default pick instead of Ryan O’Hearn. But the latter was selected as the AL’s starting DH by the fans, and Baltimore doesn’t deserve two players. It’s a great story that O’Hearn will be a first-time All-Star just a couple of weeks before his 32nd birthday.
Other thoughts
• The default White Sox selection is rookie starter Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick from Milwaukee last winter. Smith is my lowest-rated player on the AL squad, but he has been consistently solid. Adrian Houser, an in-season pickup, has been great for Chicago and has arguably produced more value than Smith. But I like honoring the rookie who has been there the whole campaign.
• The Athletics’ Jacob Wilson was elected as a starter and is easily the most deserving player from that squad. I’m not sure I see a second pick there, but Brent Rooker made it as a DH. Rooker has been fine, but his spot could have gone to one of the overlooked hitters already mentioned, or perhaps Kansas City’s Maikel Garcia.
• Houston’s Jeremy Pena is a deserving choice and arguably should be the AL’s starter at shortstop instead of Wilson. Alas, he’s on the injured list, and though reports say he might soon resume baseball activities, it’s likely Pena will be replaced. Any of the above-mentioned overlooked hitters will do.
• As for the starters, the fans do a great job nowadays. I disagreed with them on a couple of spots, though. I would have gone with a keystone combo of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Pena rather than Gleyber Torres and Wilson, but I’d have them all on the team. And I would have definitely started Buxton over Javier Baez in the outfield.
National League
Biggest oversight: Juan Soto, New York Mets
Not sure how this happens, but I’m guessing Soto is a victim of his own standards. Yes, he signed a contract for an unfathomable amount of money, and so far, he hasn’t reinvented the game as a member of the Mets. He has just been lower-end Juan Soto, which is still one of the best players in the sport. His OBP is, as ever, north of .400, he leads the league in walks and it sure seems as if Pete Alonso has very much enjoyed hitting behind him.
The All-Star Game was invented for players like Soto, and though you might leave out someone like him if he is having a truly poor season, that’s not the case here. It is kind of amazing that he didn’t make it, while MacKenzie Gore and James Wood — both part of the trade that sent Soto from Washington to San Diego — did. They deserve it, and you can make a strong argument that a third player the Nats picked up in the trade — CJ Abrams — does as well. But Soto deserves it too.
Finally, the Marlins’ most-deserving pick is outfielder Kyle Stowers, who indeed ended up as their default selection. But he probably ended up with Soto’s slot.
Second-biggest oversight: Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s hard to overlook anyone on the Dodgers, but somehow Pages slipped through the cracks despite his fantastic all-around first half for the defending champs.
It was just a numbers game. I’ve got five NL outfielders rated ahead of Pages, and all but Soto made it, so no additional quibbles there. The fans voted in Ronald Acuna Jr. to start at his home ballpark. Having Acuna there in front of the fans in Atlanta makes sense. But he has played only half of the first half.
Other thoughts
• The shortstop position is loaded in the NL, but the only pure shortstops to make it were starter Francisco Lindor and Elly De La Cruz. Both are good selections, but the Phillies’ Trea Turner has been just as outstanding. Abrams and Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo are also deserving. The position has been so good that the player with the most career value currently playing shortstop in the NL — Mookie Betts — barely merits a mention. Betts has had a subpar half, but who will be surprised if he’s topping this list by the end of the season?
• Both leagues had three pitching staff slots given to relievers. The group in the AL (Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader and Andres Munoz) was much more clear-cut than the one in the NL, which ended up with the Giants’ Randy Rodriguez, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Padres’ Jason Adam. It made sense to honor someone from San Diego’s dominant bullpen, and you could have flipped a coin to pick between Adam and Adrian Morejon.
• Picking these rosters while meeting all the requirements and needs for teams and positions is hard. I don’t have any real issue with the pitchers selected for the NL. One of them is Atlanta’s Chris Sale, who is on the IL and will have to be replaced. My pick would be Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez (7-2, 2.68 ERA).
• And for the starting position players, Alonso should have gotten the nod over Freddie Freeman at first base, though it will be great to see Freeman’s reception when he takes the field in Atlanta. For that matter, the Cubs’ Michael Busch has had a better first half than Freeman at this point, though that became true only in the past few days, thanks to his explosion at Wrigley Field. I would have gone with Turner at short, but it’s close. And I’d have started Wood in place of Acuna.
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Jesse Rogers
The last-place Washington Nationals fired president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez, the team announced Sunday.
Rizzo, 64, and Martinez, 60, won a World Series with the Nationals in 2019, but the team has floundered in recent years. This season, the Nationals are 37-53 and stuck at the bottom of the National League East after getting swept by the Boston Red Sox this weekend at home. Washington hasn’t finished higher than fourth in the division since winning the World Series.
“On behalf of our family and the Washington Nationals organization, I first and foremost want to thank Mike and Davey for their contributions to our franchise and our city,” principal owner Mark Lerner said in a statement. “Our family is eternally grateful for their years of dedication to the organization, including their roles in bringing a World Series trophy to Washington, D.C.
“While we are appreciative of their past successes, the on-field performance has not been where we or our fans expect it to be. This is a pivotal time for our club, and we believe a fresh approach and new energy is the best course of action for our team moving forward.”
Mike DeBartolo, the club’s senior vice president and assistant general manager, was named interim GM on Sunday night. DeBartolo will oversee all aspects of baseball operations, including the MLB draft. An announcement will be made on the interim manager Monday, a day before the club begins a series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Rizzo has been the top decision-maker in Washington since 2013, and Martinez has been on board since 2018. Under Rizzo’s leadership, the team made the postseason four times: in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019. The latter season was Martinez’s lone playoff appearance.
“When our family assumed control of the team, nearly 20 years ago, Mike was the first hire we made,” Lerner said. “Over two decades, he was with us as we went from a fledging team in a new city to World Series champion. Mike helped make us who we are as an organization, and we’re so thankful to him for his hard work and dedication — not just on the field and in the front office, but in the community as well.”
The Nationals are in the midst of a rebuild that has moved slower than expected, though the team didn’t augment its young core much during the winter. Led by All-Stars James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, Washington has the second-youngest group of hitters in MLB and the sixth-youngest pitching staff.
The team lost 11 straight games in a forgettable stretch last month. And during a 2-10 run in June, Washington averaged just 2.5 runs. Since June 1, the Nationals have scored one run or been shut out seven times. In Sunday’s 6-4 loss to Boston, they left 15 runners on base.
There was industry speculation over the winter that the Nationals would spend money on free agents for the first time in several years, but that never materialized. Instead, the team made minor moves, signing free agents Josh Bell and Michael Soroka, trading for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and re-signing closer Kyle Finnegan. Now, the hope is a new management team, both on and off the field, can help change the franchise’s fortunes.
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David Schoenfield
The rosters for the 2025 MLB All-Star Game will feature 19 first-timers — and one legend — as the pitchers and reserves were announced Sunday for the July 15 contest at Truist Park in Atlanta.
Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw, a three-time Cy Young Award winner who made his first All-Star team in 2011, was named to his 11th National League roster as a special commissioner’s selection.
Kershaw, who became only the fourth left-hander to amass 3,000 career strikeouts, is 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA in nine starts after beginning the season on the injured list. He joins Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera as a legend choice, after the pair of sluggers were selected in 2022.
Kershaw said he didn’t want to discuss the selection Sunday.
Among the first-time All-Stars announced Sunday: Dodgers teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto; Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood and left-hander MacKenzie Gore; Houston Astros ace Hunter Brown and shortstop Jeremy Pena; and Chicago Cubs 34-year-old left-hander Matthew Boyd.
“It’ll just be cool being around some of the best players in the game,” Wood said.
First-time All-Stars previously elected to start by the fans include Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson, Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Overall, the 19 first-time All-Stars is a drop from the 32 first-time selections on the initial rosters in 2024.
Kershaw would be the sentimental choice to start for the National League, although Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, who leads NL pitchers in ERA and WAR, might be in line to start his second straight contest. Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler, a three-time All-Star, is 9-3 with a 2.17 ERA after Sunday’s complete-game victory and also would be a strong candidate to start.
“I think it would be stupid to say no to that. It’s a pretty cool opportunity,” Skenes said about the possibility of being asked to start by Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “I didn’t make plans over the All-Star break or anything. So, yeah, I’m super stoked.”
Kershaw has made one All-Star start in his career, in 2022 at Dodger Stadium.
Among standout players not selected were New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto, who signed a $765 million contract as a free agent in the offseason, and Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts, who had made eight consecutive All-Star rosters since 2016.
Soto got off to a slow start but was the National League Player of the Month in June and entered Sunday ranked sixth in the NL in WAR among position players while ranking second in OBP, eighth in OPS and third in runs scored.
The players vote for the reserves at each position and selected Wood, Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres as the backup outfielders. Kyle Stowers also made it as a backup outfielder as the representative for the Miami Marlins.
Unless Soto later is added as an injury replacement, he’ll miss his first All-Star Game since his first full season in 2019.
The Dodgers lead all teams with five representatives: Kershaw, Yamamoto and starters Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith. The AL-leading Detroit Tigers (57-34) and Mariners have four each.
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal will join AL starters Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez, while Raleigh, the AL’s starting catcher, will be joined by Seattle teammates Bryan Woo, Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez.
Earning his fifth career selection but first since 2021 is Texas Rangers righty Jacob deGrom, who is finally healthy after making only nine starts in his first two seasons with the Rangers and is 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA. He has never started an All-Star Game, although Skubal or Brown would be the favorite to start for the AL.
The hometown Braves will have three All-Stars in Acuna, pitcher Chris Sale (his ninth selection, tied with Freeman for the second most behind Kershaw) and first baseman Matt Olson. The San Francisco Giants had three pitchers selected: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and reliever Randy Rodriguez.
The slumping New York Yankees ended up with three All-Stars: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Max Fried. The Mets also earned three All-Star selections: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz.
“Red carpet, that’s my thing,” Chisholm said. “I do have a ‘fit in mind.”
Rosters are expanded from 26 to 32 for the All-Star Game. They include starters elected by fans, 17 players (five starting pitchers, three relievers and a backup for each position) chosen in a player vote and six players (four pitchers and two position players) selected by league officials. Every club must be represented.
Acuna, Wood and Raleigh are the three All-Stars who have so far committed to participating in the Home Run Derby.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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