Bloomberg just released the most embarrassing report about Tesla, Waymo, and self-driving
Bloomberg has just released an embarrassingly bad report about the self-driving space, in which it claimed Tesla has an advantage over Waymo by misrepresenting data.
There are currently many eyes on Tesla’s imminent launch of its “robotaxi” service in Austin, Texas.
We have just published a new report today to highlight how the launch is a game of smoke and mirrors, meant to reframe the optics of Tesla’s self-driving effort following years of broken promises.
At the same time, Bloomberg Intelligence released its own report, claiming that Tesla is ahead in self-driving technology, but the firm misrepresented data to support its claim.
The report compares Tesla’s and Waymo’s self-driving efforts, going so far as to claim that “Tesla is closer to vehicle autonomy than peers.”
Here are the two main charts that Bloomberg circulated from the report:
The problem is that the report is misleading by comparing completely different data.
Steve Man, the Bloomberg Intelligence analyst behind the report, based his report on Tesla’s own quarterly misleading “Autopilot Safety Report.”
The report is widely considered to be unserious for several main reasons:
- Tesla bundles all miles from its vehicles using Autopilot and FSD technology, which are considered level 2 ADAS systems that require driver attention at all times. Drivers consistently correct the systems to avoid accidents.
- Tesla Autopilot, which is standard on all Tesla vehicles, is primarily used on highways, where accidents occur at a significantly lower rate per mile compared to city driving.
- Tesla only counts events that deploy an airbag or a seat-belt pretensioner. Fender-benders, curb strikes, and many ADAS incidents never appear, keeping crash counts artificially low.
- Finally, Tesla’s handpicked data is compared to NHTSA’s much broader statistics that include all collision events, including minor fender benders.
All these facts combined render the comparison between Tesla’s accident rate using “Autopilot technology” and NHTSA’s US average completely useless.
Yet, Bloomberg decided not only to use it but also to compare it to Waymo’s data to claim that “Tesla is 10 times safer”:
The problem with this is similar to the comparison with the US average, as the Waymo data includes all police-reported incidents, which is a much wider net than Tesla’s data, in addition to the previously mentioned issues.
To highlight how big a potential discrepancy there is in the data, NHTSA underscored in a report last year how Tesla is not aware of many crashes involving Autopilot and that only 18% of police-reported crashes involve airbag deployment:
Gaps in Tesla’s telematic data create uncertainty regarding the actual rate at which vehicles operating with Autopilot engaged are involved in crashes. Tesla is not aware of every crash involving Autopilot even for severe crashes because of gaps in telematic reporting. Tesla receives telematic data from its vehicles, when appropriate cellular connectivity exists and the antenna is not damaged during a crash, that support both crash notification and aggregation of fleet vehicle mileage. Tesla largely receives data for crashes only with pyrotechnic deployment, which are a minority of police reported crashes. A review of NHTSA’s 2021 FARS and Crash Report Sampling System (CRSS) finds that only 18 percent of police-reported crashes include airbag deployments.
Knowing full well the comparison is not fair and completely misrepresents the situation, the usual Tesla stock pumpers on X widely shared Bloomberg’s misleading report positively, and even CEO Elon Musk shared the misleading data:
Electrek’s Take
This is embarrassing for Bloomberg. It’s such a blatant error and misrepresentation that it is suspicious. They should issue a correction right away.
Tesla fanboys are now pushing this to try to prove that Tesla’s robotaxi is safe to launch amid Tesla doing everything it can to hide its self-driving crash data ahead of the launch. This is a dangerous report from Bloomberg.
Additionally, it’s not just the primary claim regarding the accident rate that is misleading. The report also contains several glaring errors.
In this chart, Bloomberg claims that Tesla is at “3 billion miles of data collected since launched”:
It looks like they simply use Tesla’s “cumulative miles driven with FSD (Supervised)”, which includes driver supervision, and the driver remains responsible for correcting FSD at all times.
In comparison, they talk about 22 million miles for Waymo. It looks like Bloomberg only used Waymo’s rider-only mileage in San Francisco, which is currently at 22 million miles, but when accounting all markets, Waymo is currently at more than 71 million miles:
It’s not clear why they would only use mileage in San Francisco for Waymo when they used Tesla’s global customer FSD mileage for Tesla.
Again, these are also “rider-only” miles, which means that there are only people riding inside the Waymo vehicles, compared to Tesla’s mileage being completely supervised by customer-drivers at all times.
We simply don’t know how many “rider-only” miles Tesla has, since it only started with one or two cars in Austin over the last few weeks. It is likely to have no more than a few hundred or a few thousand miles.
Regardless, it’s completely nonsensical to claim that Tesla is “ahead of its peers” in self-driving, especially Waymo, based on this report.
Tesla is currently only trying to launch something that Waymo has been doing for years.
The other argument the report attempts to make is that Tesla’s “self-driving” vehicles are approximately 7 times cheaper than Waymo’s.
Again, the problem is that Tesla’s vehicles are not self-driving. Tesla has yet to prove that, and that’s why it is using “plenty of teleoperation” in this launch in Austin. Mapping, optimizing for geo-fenced area, and teleoperations are the real limiting factors here. Not the cost of the vehicles.
Suppose Tesla has anything less than a 100-to-1 vehicle-to-teleoperator ratio. In that case, its system is not profitably scalable and I wouldn’t be surprised if it has a 1-to-1 ratio for the foreseeable future – at least on its current hardware.
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Tesla is gearing up to start selling its upcoming Tesla Semi electric truck in Europe with a new hire to develop the market.
Tesla Semi is finally about to go into volume production in the US after being unveiled almost a decade ago.
The vehicle was unveiled in 2017 and was initially scheduled to enter production in 2019; however, the automaker delayed the program on several occasions.
Tesla unveiled a “production version” in 2022, but it was only produced in small batches. The Class 8 electric truck remains a rare sight in the US, with only a few dozen units in the hands of a handful of customers and a few more in Tesla’s internal fleet.
In January 2023, Tesla announced an expansion of Gigafactory Nevada to build the Tesla Semi in volume.
However, that plan was also changed and delayed. Tesla ultimately built a separate factory adjacent to Gigafactory Nevada, and production was delayed until 2025.
Earlier this year, Tesla completed the building and started working on the production lines. The automaker said that Tesla Semi production was expected to begin in late 2025 and ramp up to a capacity of 50,000 trucks per year.
Now, we learn that Tesla is starting to build an organization to sell the Tesla Semi in Europe.
Electrek found that Tesla hired a new leader to head business development for Tesla Semi in Europe.
Usuf Schermo announced on his LinkedIn last week that he joined Tesla as “Head of Business Development EMEA for Tesla Semi.”
Schermo, who holds a master in economic engineering, energy and ressources management from TU Berlin, has some experience with commercial electric vehicles.
He was the head of sales in Germany for Volta Trucks from 2022 to 2024. The company made the Volta One, a 16-tonne electric truck aimed at city deliveries.
Volta went bankrupted in 2023, but it got back in business with a restructuring in 2024, which didn’t last long as they were insolvent as of last month.
For the last year, Schermo has been leading sales for EVUM aCar, a German startup building a small commercial vehicle.
Now, he will develop the market for Tesla’s class 8 electric truck.
The European electric commercial truck market is much developed in the US with already some significant competition from Volvo with the Volvo FH Electric, Mercedes-Benz with the eActros 600, MAN with the eTGX, and several others.
The market is still young, but Volvo is already emerging as a leader with an estimated more than 3,000 electric trucks in operations in Europe.
With production only starting in the US toward the end of the year, Tesla is not likely to have an homologated version of the Tesla Semi in Europe until later in 2026.
Tesla has already announced plans to build the Tesla Semi in Europe at Gigafactory Berlin.
The automaker currently only produces the Model Y at the German factory and its sales are crashing across Europe.
Electrek’s Take
I keep saying to Tesla fans that hate me: I track both Tesla hires and departures. I try to report on both, but the former are much more scarce than the latter these days.
This is one of the few significant hires of the last years at Tesla and say “significant” because it shows Tesla is preparing to sell the Tesla Semi in Europe because this is clearly not an executive level role.
Over the last year and since the great purge of talent in April 2024, Tesla has almost been exclusive promoting from within at higher director and VP levels rather than hire from outside.
As for the Tesla Semi in Europe, it could work. Like I said, there’s already a lot of competition, but Tesla Semi is expected to have a longer range than everything else, which should attract buyers.
However, as we recently reported, it is expected to be much more expensive than what Tesla previously announced.
It could particularly useful for Gigafactory Berlin, which is at a real risk right now with Tesla’s sales crashing in Europe. Producing a new vehicle program there, and a commercial one that rely less on consumer perception, could help increase factory utilization.
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Environment
Shipping groups are starting to shy away from the Strait of Hormuz as Israel-Iran conflict rages on
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speed boat sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Some shipowners are opting to steer clear of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, according to the world’s largest shipping association, reflecting a growing sense of industry unease as the Israel-Iran conflict rages on.
Israel’s surprise attack on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure on Friday has been followed by four days of escalating warfare between the regional foes.
That has prompted shipowners to exercise an extra degree of caution in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway to the world’s oil industry — and a vital entry point for container ships calling at Dubai’s massive Jebel Ali Port.
Jakob Larsen, head of security at Bimco, which represents global shipowners, said the Israel-Iran conflict seems to be escalating, causing concerns in the shipowner community and prompting a “modest drop” in the number of ships sailing through the area.
Bimco, which typically doesn’t encourage vessels to stay away from certain areas, said the situation has introduced an element of uncertainty.
“Circumstances and risk tolerance vary widely across shipowners. It appears that most shipowners currently choose to proceed, while some seem to stay away,” Larsen told CNBC by email.
“During periods of heightened security threats, freight rates and crew wages often rise, creating an economic incentive for some to take the risk of passing through conflict zones. While these dynamics may seem rudimentary, they are the very mechanisms that have sustained global trade through conflicts and wars for centuries,” he added.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.
In 2023, oil flows through the waterway averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, accounting for about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
The inability of oil to traverse through the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily, can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays.
Alongside oil, the Strait of Hormuz is also key for global container trade. That’s because ports in this region (Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan) are transshipment hubs, which means they serve as intermediary points in global shipping networks.
The majority of cargo volumes from those ports are destined for Dubai, which has become a hub for the movement of freight with feeder services in the Persian Gulf, South Asia and East Africa.
Peter Tirschwell, vice president for maritime and trade at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said there have been indications that shipping groups are starting to “shy away” from navigating the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, without naming any specific firms.
“You could see the impact that the Houthi rebels had on shipping through the Red Sea. Even though there [are] very few recent attacks on shipping in that region, nevertheless the threat has sent the vast majority of container trade moving around the south of Africa. That has been happening for the past year,” Tirschwell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
“The ocean carriers have no plans to go back in mass into the Red Sea and so, the very threat of military activity around a narrow important routing like the Strait of Hormuz is going to be enough to significantly disrupt shipping,” he added.
Israel-Iran conflict lifts freight rates
Freight rates jumped after the Israeli attacks on Iran last week. Indeed, data published Monday from analytics firm Kpler showed Mideast Gulf tanker freight rates to China surged 24% on Friday to $1.67 per barrel.
The upswing in VLCC (very large crude carrier) freight rates reflected the largest daily move year-to-date, albeit from a relative lull in June, and reaffirmed the level of perceived risk in the area.
Analysts at Kpler said more increases in freight rates are likely as the situation remains highly unstable, although maritime war risk premium remains unchanged for now.
Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted as seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, June 16, 2025.
Ronen Zvulun | Reuters
David Smith, head of hull and marine liabilities at insurance broker McGill and Partners, said shipping insurance rates, at least for the time being, “remain stable with no noticeable increases since the latest hostilities between Israel and Iran.”
But that “could change dramatically,” depending on whether there is escalation in the area, he added.
“With War quotes only valid for 48 hours prior to entry into the excluded ‘Breach’ area, Underwriters do have the ability to rapidly increase premiums in line with the perceived risk,” Smith told CNBC by email.
The Hapag-Lloyd AG Leverkusen Express sails out of the Yangshan Deepwater Port, operated by Shanghai International Port Group, on Aug. 7, 2019.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A spokesperson for German-based container shipping liner Hapag-Lloyd said the threat level for the Strait of Hormuz remains “significant,” albeit without an immediate risk to the maritime sector.
Hapag-Lloyd said it does not foresee any bigger issues in crossing the waterway for the moment, while acknowledging that the situation could change in a “very short” period of time.
The company added that it has no immediate plans to traverse the Red Sea, however, noting it hasn’t done so since the end of December 2023.
— CNBC’s Lori Ann LaRocco contributed to this report.
China’s EV automakers have surged ahead of the competition in global EV sales, and a new report shows just how far ahead they are.
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) just dropped its third annual Global Automaker Rating, showing that Chinese carmakers dominate the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) space. China now accounts for over 11 million EVs sold annually – over half of global EV sales.
Its massive domestic market has helped Chinese automakers build serious momentum. They’ve scaled up, improved tech, and are now setting the pace globally. Companies like Geely and SAIC have already hit 50% EV sales share, meeting their 2025 targets a full year early. In fact, Chinese automakers took the top five spots for ZEV class coverage, and five out of the top six for EV sales share.
Meanwhile, automakers in the US and Europe are trying to catch up. But they’re facing a dual challenge of falling behind on tech while navigating shaky regulatory environments.
The report also confirmed a big milestone: In 2024, BYD officially surpassed Tesla in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales for the first time. BYD’s BEV sales jumped 25%, and its combined BEV and plug-in hybrid sales climbed an impressive 47% year-over-year. Still, both BYD and Tesla remain in the “Leaders” category.
Automakers boosted energy efficiency, charging speed, and driving range thanks to newer, high-performance models.
“Our assessment revealed widespread improvement in BEV technology performance across the industry,” said Zifei Yang, ICCT’s global passenger vehicle lead. “GM and Honda made significant advancements by introducing high-performance models to their previously limited offerings, while companies like Geely, Chang’an, and Chery improved substantially with new high-performance EV lines.”
India’s Tata Motors also hit a turning point. For the first time, it graduated from ICCT’s “laggard” group to “transitioner,” thanks to new EVs and big moves on battery recycling and repurposing. While Japanese and South Korean automakers are still lagging behind, Honda and Nissan are inching forward. Honda launched its first US BEV, and Nissan finally clarified its ZEV targets.
One newer addition to this year’s report: a green steel metric. Since steel is the second-largest source of emissions in vehicle manufacturing (after batteries), ICCT now tracks which automakers are cutting emissions in the supply chain. European brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and VW earned high marks for sourcing renewable-powered green steel.
ICCT’s CEO, Drew Kodjak, summed it up: “The rapid evolution of the EV market in China has created technological and manufacturing advantages for companies there. For the wider global auto industry, this is no longer just about meeting future goals – it’s about remaining competitive today in a market that’s charging up.”
The full Global Automaker Rating, covering 21 major automakers, is now live on ICCT’s website.
Read more: EV prices dipped in May – and Tesla Model Y led the slide
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