11 surprising stats that have defined the 2025 MLB season
-
Bradford Doolittle
From the standings to the league leaders to the scoreboard itself, numbers are narrative in baseball.
Each season is a little different and 2025 is no exception. Some numbers tell the story as it unfolds; others suggest where the game is and might be headed.
Here are a few numbers that are holding my attention as we approach the halfway point of the campaign.
.454
What the number is: Aaron Judge‘s batting average on balls in play
Why it’s important: Judge has reached that rarefied place few other hitters have: when a star batter becomes so lethal, debates emerge about whether it would be better to simply walk him every time he comes up.
The short answer to that is no — the math doesn’t check out — but that doesn’t mean Judge isn’t doing something that seemed all but unthinkable during his recent run of dominance: He’s gotten even better.
All of the usual indicators that have made Judge the game’s best hitter are in line with his recent standards. He’s on track to homer in more than 8% of his plate appearances for a fourth straight season. His strikeout rate is up a bit lately but is also comparable to his composite for the past few years.
The glaring difference is Judge’s batting average: .372. Even with a recent slump, he’s in position to challenge for the American League’s Triple Crown. That by itself is remarkable for a player who, at the age of 25 in 2017, homered 52 times but also had 208 strikeouts.
Judge’s average spike is in part because of a better whiff rate than his early years, but it’s mostly driven by that BABIP. He’s always been a high BABIP hitter — .352 for his career — simply because he hits the ball hard so often, but we’ve never seen anything like this.
This BABIP has a chance to be truly unprecedented. According to Baseball Reference’s Stathead, the all-time mark for BABIP by a qualifying AL or NL batter is Ty Cobb’s .443 mark in 1911. Judge is currently on pace to obliterate that record.
Also think about what kind of hitter Judge is — an awe-inspiring home run hitter. The BABIP leaderboard is dominated by deadball era players who excelled at a time when the game was all about batting average — Cobb, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Willie Keeler, Jesse Burkett. In the 1920s, a power hitter joined the upper tier of the stat: Babe Ruth.
Yet Ruth’s career high in BABIP was .423 (1923), nowhere close to where Judge is right now. We used to point to Judge’s feats and contextualize them by citing their historical proximity to Ruth. At the rate things are going, we might end up contextualizing Ruth for his proximity to Judge.
1.89
What the number is: Paul Skenes‘ ERA over his first 38 career starts
Why it’s important: It’s a fun exercise to take a player who is off to a fast career start and see how he ranks on some all-time leaderboard. Doing so might highlight his early accomplishments, but we still understand the point is limited. The player hasn’t gone through the ups and downs, injuries and eventual declines that accompany a baseball career.
Nevertheless, we’re going to highlight Skenes’ ERA this way because it’s just so astonishing. And not for nothing, 38 starts is a pretty good sample.
Ordinarily, ERA is limited when it comes to historical comparisons, because the league contexts that affect it have vacillated so wildly through baseball history. You don’t have to be a baseball analyst to understand why the 1.74 ERA that Pedro Martinez posted in the offense-intense 2000 season was very different than when Ron Guidry posted the same figure in pitching-friendly 1978, and even more different than when Tim Keefe landed there in 1888, when the rules were very different.
The remarkable thing about Skenes’ ERA is how it stands out historically, even if you don’t adjust it one iota for league, team or ballpark context. The current all-time leaderboard for career ERA, minimum 38 starts:
1. Ed Walsh (1.82)
2. (tie) Paul Skenes, Addie Joss (1.89)
You’ve got two Hall of Famers who flourished at the heights (lows?) of the deadball era … and Paul Skenes.
22%
What the number is: The overall MLB strikeout percentage
Why it’s important: Look, 22% is still a high strikeout rate on the historical scale. In each season from 1979 to 1981, for example, it was just 12.5%, and that’s when pitchers were still hitting in the National League. But it’s progress: Last year, the figure was 22.6% and we’re now down 1.2% from the full-season record set in 2021. (It was even higher in the shortened 2020 season.)
That much of a four-year decline from 2021 is certainly noteworthy in a category that has generally gone up relentlessly over the entirety of big league history. When the rate dropped off slightly from the shortened season, it ended a 15-year streak of annual increases.
When strikeouts are down, batting average generally goes up, and so it seems to be the case in 2025. The overall .245 mark is nothing to write home about, but it’s two points better than last season, and the number should go up, as the best batting average months are ahead of us.
The average is driven by the improved contact. League BABIP (.291) remains steady over last year, when it plummeted from the .297 mark in 2023. That turned out to be a temporary spike caused by the ban on extreme shifts, but defenses seem to have adjusted.
The game would be better if we could start to push that BABIP back toward .300. In absence of that, we’ll take a little more contact. So far in 2025, we’ve been getting it.
162
What the number is: Shohei Ohtani‘s runs scored pace
Why it’s important: Once again a big league pitcher, Ohtani continues to do unprecedented things at the plate as a Dodger. His stolen base numbers are down from 2024, when he put up MLB’s first 50/50 season, and now that he’s pitching again, we shouldn’t expect the thefts to accelerate. But Ohtani’s work on the bases is still off the charts.
According to Baseball Reference, Ohtani has scored 45% of the time when he reaches base, fourth in the majors. He’s also third in the NL in on-base percentage, behind only teammates Will Smith and Freddie Freeman, so he has had a lot of opportunities to score. Runs scored percentage doesn’t include tallies on homers, and he’s leading the NL in that category with 25.
Roll it all together and Ohtani is on pace to score more than 160 runs. That just doesn’t happen. The modern record is Ruth’s 177 from 1921. Ruth and Lou Gehrig both topped 160 runs twice — and that’s it. No one else has gotten there.
There’s more: Since World War II, only Ted Williams (150, 1949) and Jeff Bagwell (152, 2000) have reached even 150 runs scored. Ohtani might not post another 50/50 season, but that doesn’t mean he’s still not doing historic things at the plate.
And, yeah, he’s pitching again, too.
6.86%
What the number is: The percentage of stolen base opportunities resulting in attempts
Why it’s important: Teams are still sorting out how to optimize for the revamped stolen base context stemming from rule changes and the adoption of larger bases. After wading into heightened running games at first, we’re really seeing teams rev things up in 2025 — and there’s room for more growth.
SBA% is a formula that estimates the number of theft opportunities that arise and converts that to a rate based on the actual number of attempts. The 6.86% figure is up from 4.31% in 2021, a nadir for the division era. Last season, the rate was at 6.75%.
Caught stealing percentage is up, too — 22.6% of attempts — but while it’s the highest number since the rules were changed, it’s still the third-lowest mark on record. If we consider the accepted red flag level for caught stealing to be 25% — more than that, then teams are being too aggressive — that means teams have room to get even more bold.
As it is, we’ve seen 0.75 steals per game in 2025, the highest figure since 1990. This set of rule changes has been a positive.
39.3%
What the number is: The percentage of runs that have scored via homers
Why it’s important: This number is related to both the improved contact rate and the increased steal rate noted above, but it’s still worth calling attention to on its own. The 39.3 R/HR% is at its lowest since 2015.
In general, runs have been hard to come by in 2025, and it remains true that the easiest way to score a run is to simply jack the ball over a fence. Teams haven’t stopped trying to do that. But there has been an uptick in the diversity of offensive styles. That’s a good thing.
MLB has acknowledged that its own data on the performance of the baseballs this year indicates increased drag, making homers a little harder to come by.
Keep it up! The harder it is to homer, the craftier teams will have to be when it comes to scoring. During the 20-year period ending in 1993, R/HR% was around 29%. We’ve got more work to do, but at least the trend arrow is pointing the right direction.
59
What the number is: Cal Raleigh‘s home run pace
Why it’s important: Three players are on pace for at least 50 homers: Judge, Ohtani and, yes, the amazing Cal Raleigh.
It’s no exaggeration to say that if Raleigh were to get to 59 homers, it would be one of the most remarkable longball seasons in baseball history. Mostly because he’s a Gold Glove catcher — more on that in a bit — but also because Raleigh’s home park in Seattle is a brutal venue for offense.
There’s also this: Raleigh is a switch-hitter, and he has mashed with equal aplomb from both sides of the plate. Let’s keep dreaming on this 59-homer pace: Mickey Mantle’s 54 bombs in 1961 is the record for a switcher. Mantle, who also hit 52 in 1956, is the only switch-hitter ever to top 50.
But yes, Raleigh is a catcher, and he’s one of the best. Among primary catchers, the homer record is 48, set by Kansas City’s Salvador Perez in 2021. But Perez hit 15 of those homers while DHing. According to the Baseball Reference split finder, the record for homers by a catcher as a catcher is 42, set by Atlanta’s Javier Lopez in 2003.
So far, 25 of Raleigh’s 27 homers have come when he’s catching.
40/52
What the number is: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s homer and steal paces
Why it’s important: The Cubs’ offense has been one of the breakout units in the sport this season. If we told you back in March that this would be the case, you’d assume the attack had been ignited by the addition of Kyle Tucker.
Tucker has been every bit as good as the Cubs hoped, but the avatar for the Cubs’ offensive leap has been the amazing Crow-Armstrong. Again, let’s adopt that back-in-March mindset. The default notion then was that if PCA could hit just well enough to stay in the lineup, his defense and baserunning would be a boon to the Cubs’ roster.
Indeed, Crow-Armstrong has been an impact performer in the field and on the basepaths. He’s also started pulling, launching and mashing the ball at elite levels, resulting in 19 dingers to date, with the homers coming at more than twice the rate as in his rookie season.
For now, Crow-Armstrong is on pace to become the Cubs’ first-ever 40/40 player. He’d also be just the seventh player ever to do it, period. But it’s becoming a thing. If PCA (or someone else — keep an eye on Elly De La Cruz) gets there, it would be the third straight season it’s happened, following Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ohtani.
73
What the number is: The number of starting pitchers on pace for at least 162 innings pitched
Why it’s important: Maybe I’m being a little pie-eyed here, because I long for the return of the preeminence of starting pitching. Still, there are 73 pitchers on pace to qualify for the ERA title. This number is subject to rapid change due to a sudden spate of pitching injuries. But perhaps other pitchers will pick up the pace a little and join the club if that happens.
For now, let’s stick with the pace of 73. Last season, 58 pitchers qualified for the ERA title, up from 44 in 2023. The last time we were in the 70s was 2016. The record was set in 1998, when there were 96.
We’re a long way from the days of Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax, and complete games aren’t going to make a comeback any time soon. Still, it seems like teams are getting a little more out of their core rotation pitchers, which is a step in the right direction.
127
What the number is: The Colorado Rockies‘ loss pace
Why it’s important: If the Rockies break the record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season, MLB might have to start looking into why baseball’s worst teams have suddenly become so wretched. This isn’t Mizzou in the SEC (it’s a dig at my own school, so it’s OK), it’s the major leagues. Baseball teams simply aren’t supposed to lose this often.
There are so many amazing facts about these Rockies already. They are last in runs per game and runs allowed per game. That might seem like a no-brainer given their record, but lest we forget where the Rockies play their home games. A Colorado team hitting with wiffleball bats ought to escape the MLB cellar in scoring.
The Rockies are also on pace to be outscored by 437 runs. Yeah, that’s not good. The modern era record for worst run differential is minus-349, set by the 1932 Red Sox. I mean, I keep putting the numbers into the calculator because it doesn’t seem possible. Colorado has been outscored by 197 runs in 73 games. That’s 2.7 runs per game. Over 162 games, that calculates to 437 runs.
They really have been that bad. There have now been 2,706 teams that have played since 1901. Their minus-201 differential before their win Tuesday would rank 138th on the worst-ever list. And we’ve still got almost two weeks left in June.
12.5
What the number is: Judge’s bWAR pace
Why it’s important: We bookend our numbers tour with another stop at Mount Judge, because he’s just that unbelievable.
The real number here is 10 — as in a 10-WAR season, which would be Judge’s third. Only 13 players have ever had three or more 10-WAR seasons, and the list is awfully impressive:
10: Babe Ruth
8: Walter Johnson
6: Rogers Hornsby, Willie Mays
4: Christy Mathewson
3: Grover Alexander, Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb, Bob Gibson, Lefty Grove, Mickey Mantle, Ed Walsh, Ted Williams
The only hitters to do it are Ruth, Hornsby, Mays, Bonds, Cobb, Mantle and Williams. More lofty company. Judge, who had 10.8 bWAR last season, would be just the ninth hitter to do it in consecutive seasons. The others: Ruth, Bonds, Carl Yastrzemski, Mantle, Hornsby, Williams, Cobb and Mays.
-
Kiley McDaniel
The 2025 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 boards.
The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.
In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.
Which direction will the Nationals go — and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
Since this is a last-minute update on what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my mock draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.
Draft tracker: Results, analysis for every Day 1 pick
More coverage: Mock draft 3.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
1. Washington Nationals
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
There have been a lot of rumors flying around over the past few days about what is happening in the wake of the firing of GM Mike Rizzo.
The industry feeling is that what has changed is 1) Anderson is a little more likely to be the pick mostly because Holliday is now a little less likely to be the pick, and 2) taking a bigger cut is a real option, with Eli Willits the main cut-rate possibility, though Aiva Arquette has also been mentioned.
All but Willits are advised by Scott Boras, and he’ll never tip his hand until he has to; now is not the time yet. Nothing is decided here and price will be a factor. If I turned this in 15 minutes before the draft, the Nats might still not have made the decision, so I’ll stick with what seems most likely, even if I don’t feel great about it. Landon Harmon is a rumored later round, overslot target.
For context, a scouting director for a team picking in the top 10 said I shouldn’t feel confident about anything happening in the top three picks specifically, adding, “I’m hearing there’s wars happening in all of those rooms right now” (as of Friday night). I ran that by another director picking up high: “Yeah, we’re hearing the same thing.”
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
I’m going to stick with Doyle because he makes the most sense for what the Angels have proved they’re looking for in recent drafts: a polished, quick-moving college player who will come at a savings.
I’ve heard at least six players seriously connected to this pick in the past few days: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish and Willits. There are a couple more I’ve been told are under consideration who I’m not taking seriously as options here.
It could be any of these players based on final conversations and bonus pricing info on each player coming in at the last minute. Doyle has a real shot to slide to No. 9 or No. 10 if he doesn’t go here, so he is motivated to give a competitive number.
0:55
Liam Doyle’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
The hot rumor of the past few days is that Tyler Bremner will be the pick here at big savings, and that holds up to further analysis because, in style, Bremner and Hernandez (long connected to this pick) are pretty similar.
It’s pretty widely known that Anderson is the No. 1 player for Seattle and will be the pick if he gets here, which still has maybe a 20-30% chance of happening.
If Anderson isn’t here, I think the decision comes down to Bremner at the most savings, Irish at a little less savings or Hernandez at the least savings, broadly speaking. Some sources have said Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also in play here, but they seem like tertiary options.
I think Bremner having more support in the No. 11-15 area that was reflected in the last mock will raise his price a bit to where Hernandez will be the pick, but this one is also wide open at the moment and will come down to a last-minute bonus price check if Anderson isn’t available.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
There has been some waffling late in the process from sources who think maybe the Rockies wouldn’t pay the overslot price to get Holliday down here — but much of what I hear very late in the process is wrong or intentional misinformation, so I’ll stick with what I’ve been hearing for a literal year.
I think the other options for Colorado if Holliday doesn’t get here are all college pitchers: Anderson, Arnold and Witherspoon, with Willits and Arquette getting some mentions.
1:10
Ethan Holliday’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
Willits seems securely in play at the top two picks and possibly at No. 4, so the Cardinals landing him here would be considered a solid outcome. I think Anderson and Holliday are the primary targets for this pick and Willits is next up, with Arnold and Irish as the possible underslot options.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
It sounds like Hernandez or Willits will be the pick if either is here, so the Pirates are rooting for Seattle to either land Anderson or opt for a cheaper alternative to Hernandez.
Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette and Irish are believed to be the four leading options here. Arnold has the most late support, but this one might also come down to money.
I hope you feel sympathy for me having to do this in public when none of these teams know what it will do and won’t for hours.
1:05
Jamie Arnold’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
I think this will come down to Parker, Iris, and Billy Carlson — and I think Parker has the edge.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
I think the Jays will pick Parker if he gets here and will consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available here. This decision seems to come down to Arquette or Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 13
I’m getting some late-breaking info that Irish is more of a fit here than Hall, so shuffling a few picks that follow to accommodate for that.
Cincinnati seems to be the floor if Hernandez or Doyle slip, and otherwise the Reds seem to be the ceiling for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon and Carlson are also in the mix.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be No. 7 to No. 12 (or maybe No. 14). I think the White Sox really want to land the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob) but can’t get JoJo to this pick.
The White Sox have been all over high school hitters all spring, and Carlson gets the nod over Gavin Fien.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is picking up steam at this pick, and I think his floor is now Boston’s pick at No. 15. It’s a bit surprising he could go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner clearly has been getting interest in the top half of the first round that just hadn’t leaked out to the industry at large until late. I think this will be a college player, likely a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Brendan Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
A few names shuffled around late Sunday, and now one of the Rangers’ top targets will be available. Marek Houston is also in the mix here.
I think Hall and Carlson are the targets here, but neither will make it to the pick, so Cunningham will become the pick, narrowly over Josh Hammond. I was hearing Cunningham would fit more 20-30, and the late chatter is that he has multiple homes in the teens. As with the White Sox, the belief all spring was that the Rangers want a prep hitter here.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
In a last-minute update, I shuffled four players and Witherspoon fits here as a solid value.
Irish is in play at most picks starting at No. 2 all the way down to the middle of the first round, but I think his slide would stop here. The Giants have long been tied to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a long shot at this pick, but gone by their next one), with Andrew Fischer getting some love as well.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25
I think this pick will come down to Cunningham or Sean Gamble in this situation; Gamble could make it to their next pick.
The Rays are tied to prep position players for later picks and could pull a shocker, as I projected in my previous mock, by taking Jaden Fauske here.
I think Hall, Carlson and Cunningham are the main targets, but none of them is available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have a chance to land Fauske at their next pick.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
I’ll stick with Fien here as one of the steadiest projections all spring. It sounds like Tyler Bremner will be the pick if he gets here, but that’s now looking unlikely.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
Kilen fits the type of prospect the Twins have targeted for a while. I could see Houston, Caden Bodine or Gage Wood being options here, too.
Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
I think the Cubs are targeting in-game power here, and Hammond makes a lot of sense. They’ve scouted Quentin Young pretty hard this spring as well, but this is too early for that kind of risk. Xavier Neyens, Wehiwa Aloy and Wood all fit, as well.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
I think Cunningham is the target here, but he isn’t available in this scenario. Hammond and Bodine are also mentioned here and I think Slater de Brun will be the selection at Arizona’s next pick.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
LaViolette should go in one of the next three picks and fits Baltimore’s style. He won’t get to the Orioles’ next pick, but they may be able to float targets down there with their extra pool muscle, as covered in the previous mock.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
Summerhill has a very unclear and wide range of teams that are interested but could fit here. Daniel Pierce, Houston, Bodine and Coy James are all in the mix for this pick.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think LaViolette, Neyens, Southisene and Aloy are all in the mix here, along with possible underslot deals for Davalan or de Brun.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
It now looks like Bremner won’t get here, but the Braves have been tied to Wood for about a month. Otherwise, the hit-first shortstops like Houston and Pierce are tied here.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Hammond seems to be the target, but he doesn’t make it to K.C. in this edition. I think the Royals will take a prep pitcher with one of their high picks, likely either Watson or Fisher, and maybe another later on Day 1. Eyanson and Wood are two college arms being considered.
Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69
James has a good shot at being a Tiger, and some of Detroit’s primary options go right ahead of this spot in this scenario, so I think this could be a curveball pick to most viewers.
Fauske is another possibility here, along with Kruz Schoolcraft, Pierce, Watson, Dax Kilby (more at their next pick), de Brun (same), Southisene and Fischer.
Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
Rank: 45
There’s lots of late momentum for Eyanson here, which is counter to the history of A.J. Preller’s time making picks for the Padres, so I’m going out on a limb.
Kilby on a cut, Young, Schoolcraft, Alec Blair, Josh Owens and de Brun all seem like high schoolers in the mix here.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Philly normally takes high-ceiling high school players, but this is too good of a value to pass up. Matthew Fisher, Sean Gamble and Blair are the leading prep targets, and Fischer is also mentioned.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
Kane Kepley on a big cut, Devin Taylor on a smaller one, Kilby and Watson are all options here.
Note: No. 27 is the final pick of the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. You can read mock draft 3.0 for my thinking and potential targets for teams making the comp and second-round picks that follow and see the full draft order here.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
34. Detroit Tigers: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
37. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
39. New York Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
40: Los Angeles Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
43. Miami Marlins: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Athletics: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
49. Washington Nationals: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
64. Cleveland Guardians: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Dickinson, 2B, LSU
69. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Michigan State
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: Easton Carmichael, C, Oklahoma
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike