2025 MLB mock draft 2.0: Who is surging up draft boards?
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Kiley McDaniel
With the combine underway and only a few more games in Omaha remaining, MLB draft season is winding down — so it’s time to take another stab at projecting the first round-plus of the 2025 draft.
The start of the MLB draft combine has become a sign that we’re about to enter silly season, when rumors become less attached to reality by the day. Private on-field workouts for players mentioned below are over, so there won’t be much more useful information collected — and that means the rumors are tied to controlling perception more than reflecting a new reality.
The biggest trend to note compared with the previous mock is the half-dozen or so rising college position players, which also corresponds to rumblings that the second cut of high school position players might slip a bit, often for overslot bonuses.
My “speculative” projection in the last mock was Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood at No. 17 — I thought he could be this year’s Cade Horton or Ty Floyd, rising late through the college postseason. Well, Wood threw a no-hitter earlier this week in the Men’s College World Series and now looks to have a floor somewhere in the range I initially projected him in — which was high at the time.
Now let’s predict the first 40 players to come off the board when this year’s MLB draft starts Sunday, July 13.
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Top 150 rank: 7
The conversation around who will go No. 1 continues to be wide open and will be until draft day, but Anderson’s strong finish to the season has him looking like the slight favorite over Ethan Holliday as the top pick. Seth Hernandez and Eli Willits are also getting looks here, and I’m sure there are internal conversations about a couple of other options, but Anderson and Holliday are seen as the most likely selections.
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 6
Name a player and he probably has been connected to this pick. Trying to figure out what’s actually going on here has been like watching “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” — there are more outgoing calls, workouts, rumors, misinformation and theories about the second pick than any other in the entire first round.
When in doubt, judge a team based on what it has done, and the Angels like to save on a quick-moving college player with their first pick. Despite his excellent season, Doyle’s interest seems to have a major hole in it. While there’s believed to be real interest in him at No. 2, teams picking behind the Angels think Doyle could slide all the way to No. 9 of No. 10. Doyle and Seth Hernandez have a similar group of teams eyeing them, as they’re both seen as a riskier type of pitcher (though not in the same way) than Anderson or Jamie Arnold.
There’s some buzz that prep shortstop Eli Willits could be the pick here (his father, Reggie, played for the Angels), breaking the Angels’ trend of taking college players, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Outside of the targets in the top 10 or so picks, the Angels seem to really like Georgia prep shortstop Daniel Pierce, but it’s unlikely he drops to their next pick at 47. At the Angels’ next few picks, potential quick-moving college arms such as Georgia’s Brian Curley, Tennessee’s A.J. Russell and Iowa’s Cade Obermueller make a lot of sense.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Top 150 rank: 1
The Mariners seem to be zeroed in on pitching with Anderson and Arnold being the best fits for them, along with high school pitcher Seth Hernandez if they can stomach taking a prep right-hander this high. In this scenario, I think they just take Arnold. Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette is still being scouted for this pick and I’ve heard Ike Irish and JoJo Parker brought up, but they seem to be on the outside looking in right now.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 3
This is one of the most well-known connections in the draft, and Holliday is likely to go fourth if he doesn’t go first. I’d guess this would be for an overslot bonus, similar to what Colorado did with Charlie Condon last year. Colorado is also tied to Aiva Arquette and Kyson Witherspoon, though I think it’d also be looking at whichever of the three college lefties remain if Holliday isn’t available.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (Mississippi)
Top 150 rank: 9
This is right about where the consensus starts to open up. Names such as Ike Irish, Eli Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson come up here, and this is seen as a stopping point for Holliday, Anderson and Arnold if they get this far. Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston’s name has also come up. If Anderson, Arnold and Holliday are gone, this pick is seen as likely to be a position player — probably the one the Cards think has the best hit tool of the group. Parker would most likely come with some (but not a lot of) savings if he went here and, of late, he has momentum to sneak ahead of Carlson and/or Willits. Some teams think Parker is actually the best hitter in the draft.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Top 150 rank: 8
The two players most tied to this spot are Arquette and Billy Carlson. I’ve also heard the Pirates would take prep righty Seth Hernandez if the board falls a certain way. There are some parallels to Hernandez in other picks this front office has made, such as Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler, so it makes some sense.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 2
Willits has some interest at the top two picks, and then is in the mix for basically every pick starting at No. 5 with the Cardinals — so he should go by this pick or the next (Toronto). Miami is tied almost solely to prep position players –Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson come up a lot. There have also been some rumors of another underslot deal like last year’s pick of P.J. Morlando, with targets like some of the prep hitters who are projected a dozen picks or so later, if Miami doesn’t like the names/prices of the players on the board.
Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Top 150 rank: 26
Irish will be ranked higher once I update my rankings, and his name is coming up a lot in the back half of the top 10 and into the teens. There’s lots of buzz he will go ahead of Jace LaViolette — and not that far behind Arquette, if not ahead of him. College bats are rumored to be rising late in the process this year (including Brendan Summerhill, Gavin Kilen, Wehiwa Aloy, Marek Houston, Caden Bodine and Andrew Fischer), and moving a high school player who’s a late-first-round talent to a later pick is a common and often successful strategy. Toronto is often tied to the same prep bats as Miami and St. Louis, but the Blue Jays are believed to be going the college route if the right names with the right prices don’t land here. Irish, Arquette, Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson seem to make up the group from which they’ll probably pick.
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 4
Hernandez, as mentioned above, is seen as likely to go either No. 3 to the Mariners or here — with some chance he goes at a couple of other slots, but half the teams in the top 10 seem unlikely to take a prep right-hander. The Reds are hoping he gets here and have no fear of taking this kind of player. If Hernandez isn’t available, they are tied to toolsy types, mostly high schoolers: Steele Hall, Jace LaViolette and Billy Carlson come up the most. This is about where Josh Hammond’s range begins, but he could also go in the 20s.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 5
The White Sox are casting a wide net because of where they pick. I think Doyle — and probably Carlson and Parker, too — stops here if he happens to slide this far, while Steele Hall is also in the mix. The top tier of talent in the eyes of most evaluators is at least eight players and maybe as many as a dozen, so Chicago will have to be reactive to who is left over. But the White Sox probably will get one of the players they target from that tier.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Top 150 rank: 27
This is about where the top college righties — Kyson Witherspoon and Omaha hero Gage Wood — come into the mix. This is also where that second cut of college position players, with Arquette and Irish gone in this scenario, start to come into consideration depending on what a team prefers: shortstops Wehiwa Aloy, Gavin Kilen and Marek Houston and outfielders Summerhill and Jace LaViolette. The A’s have been tied to Summerhill all spring, and he probably goes in this range and fits the type of player they’ve taken in the past. He’ll also move up in my rankings in the next update.
Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (Alabama)
Top 150 rank: 11
Texas is right in the middle of Hall’s range and I think his most likely landing spot. The Rangers are probably straddling the line between picking up a top-tier player who might get to this spot and leading off the next tier of players, which will lean more toward prep prospects and upside. I think Hall is the last position player in that top tier. Texas is also one of the teams most in on New York prep catcher Michael Oliveto, who has interest as high as the comp round and could be the team’s second-round pick.
Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Top 150 rank: 10
Witherspoon has some landing spots in the top 10, but Arkansas’ Gage Wood is closing in on him as the top college righty. I think both will land just outside of the top 10. The Giants have been tied to many of the aforementioned second cut of college players, with Wehiwa Aloy and Marek Houston also coming up a lot, and Irish quite similar to recently traded former first-rounder James Tibbs.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 24
The Rays are tied to the top prep position players, as usual, with Hall, Jaden Fauske, Sean Gamble, Dean Moss and Josh Hammond mentioned the most — though there are also some college players tied to this pick, with Kilen leading the pack. The Rays pick again at Nos. 37 and 42, and there’s a chance most of those prep players will still be around for an overslot bonus, so grabbing a rising college bat who should go by the 20th pick is a good strategy.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 13
I’m a big believer in Fien, and he fits around here or in the next half-dozen picks or so. The Red Sox were also heavy on Kilen out of high school, or I could see them being swayed by Gage Wood’s outstanding close to the college season.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 21
I was high on Wood’s upside early on, having him go to the Cubs at the next pick in the last mock I did. After his historic MCWS performance, I think the consensus is he belongs in this general area, maybe as high as Nos. 12 or 13, but probably gone by 20 or 24. Wood, for the right team, could be rushed to the upper level of the minors for a potential big league look in relief as a way to limit his innings but also develop his pitchability against better hitters. Minnesota is mostly tied to college players here, and that’s who should be going in this range, though they’re also in on prep third baseman Xavier Neyens.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 14
Aloy could go a half-dozen picks higher or even a bit lower than this, as the college bats in this tier are seemingly in a different order for every team. Wood still makes sense here, too, especially as a potential quick mover, along with other power bats such as Jace LaViolette, Xavier Neyens, Andrew Fischer, Josh Hammond and Tate Southisene.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Top 150 rank: 15
The Diamondbacks tend to look for contact-oriented types who fit at up-the-middle positions with their high picks. College players Caden Bodine, Houston and Kilen, as well as high schoolers Slater de Brun, Daniel Pierce and Kayson Cunningham all fit here and at their next pick, No. 29.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Top 150 rank: 9
Many think LaViolette’s slide would end here given Baltimore’s history of taking power-and-patience types with some defensive value. Xavier Neyens is also commonly connected to the Orioles here, among other position players being named at the picks in this range. But a number of those high school players could get floated to Baltimore’s next picks at 30 and 31.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Top 150 rank: 35
Bodine’s range starts in the middle of the round with numbers-oriented teams being on him most due to his contact rates and framing prowess, both attributes that Milwaukee emphasizes. Lots of contact-oriented bats are tied here, such as Kilen, Houston, Slater de Brun and Daniel Pierce. I could also see this being a possible floor for Wood.
Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Washington)
Top 150 rank: 19
Houston has been tied to a number of the standout athletic testers in the prep class such as Neyens, Tate Southisene, Josh Hammond and Sean Gamble. I could also see this being a floor for power-oriented college bats such as LaViolette and Aloy, with some overlap between the Astros’ targets and which player the Orioles take at No. 19.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Top 150 rank: 28
Bremner has been a bit disappointing this season but has now fallen enough that he’s a strong value for a team to get in the 20s with a number of landing spots throughout the comp round. I think this Braves pick will be a nice landing spot for college talent with Houston, Wood and Bodine also mentioned here.
Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (North Carolina)
Top 150 rank: 18
Hammond has a number of potential landing spots starting around No. 10 and ending somewhere in the mid-20s. Given Hammond’s two-way exploits, there are parallels here with Austin Riley, a player Royals scouting director Brian Bridges drafted while with Atlanta. I’d expect prep pitching and/or a prep shortstop (lots of names are mentioned, especially given Kansas City’s history) at their next few picks.
Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 53
Fischer is rising due to his strong performance in the SEC this year, and while he’s likely still behind Irish, he might be sneaking up on LaViolette with a chance to go in the top 20 picks. I think Detroit is looking to pair a college player with a high school player between this pick and its next (34) and will be looking mostly at left-handed hitters. As you can guess, that means a lot of different players have been tied to these two picks. Slater de Brun, Cam Cannarella, Jaden Fauske and Kayson Cunningham come up the most.
Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (Oregon)
Top 150 rank: 16
De Brun is believed to be in play for Arizona at No. 18 but otherwise probably lands somewhere in the 20s. The Padres are tied to a number of high school players here — Dax Kilby, Quentin Young, Kruz Schoolcraft and Matthew Fisher, among others — but also seem to be in on some college players such as Ethan Conrad and Bremner. I’d predict they go with a high schooler, especially given their history.
Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy (Florida)
Top 150 rank: 23
The Phillies are considering some high school players with upside, as you’d expect, and if the board plays out this way, Gamble, Daniel Pierce or Kayson Cunningham all fit. There’s a good shot they would look to pair this pick with a prep arm at their next pick.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (Nevada)
Top 150 rank: 22
I think the Guardians will be in on what’s left of the upside prep position player crop along with being opportunistic if a college player such as Fischer, Wood, Bodine or Bremner falls this far.
Prospect promotion incentive picks
28. Kansas City Royals: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (Georgia)
Compensation picks
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
31. Baltimore Orioles: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (Georgia)
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy HS (Illinois)
Competitive balance picks
33. Boston Red Sox: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
34. Detroit Tigers: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (Florida)
35. Seattle Mariners: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
36. Minnesota Twins: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
These three teams had their first-round picks moved down 10 slots due to exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax. We’ll include them so all 30 teams have a projected pick.
Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
Top 150 rank: 57
Taylor has a lot of interest in the comp round and doesn’t have an enormous upside, but he could be quick moving with 55-grade hit and power grades.
J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
Top 150 rank: 50
Middleton has a lot of interest from a late-first-round to an early-second-round pick as a power arm with starter feel and gaudy numbers this spring. He’s similar as a prospect to two top picks in last year’s draft, college righties Ben Hess and Bryce Cunningham.
Quentin Young, SS, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
Top 150 rank: 101
Young, nephew of Dmitri and Delmon Young, is tied to the Dodgers and Padres and has lots of late momentum despite his high whiff rates in the spring and last summer. That’s due to his gargantuan upside as a 6-foot-6 infielder with plus-plus raw power that might be 80-grade one day; he’ll be moving up in the update of my top 150 rankings. The Dodgers also have the 41st pick, and while I have them tied to a number of arms, I landed on Louisville’s Patrick Forbes.
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Bill Connelly
Oregon and Penn State went to overtime. Alabama and Georgia nearly did. Tennessee went to overtime for a second time in three weeks. Illinois watched a two-score lead vanish against unbeaten USC and then won anyway. Georgia Tech pulled off a magic act to avoid an upset in Wake Forest.
What looked to be a great Friday night was one of the best Friday nights in memory, with Virginia pulling off a stirring overtime upset of Florida State, Arizona State unearthing some more close-game magic and Houston coming back to win in overtime in Corvallis. Indiana survived Iowa City. Cincinnati and Kansas put on a Big 12 track meet. Central Washington scored 91 points!
There aren’t many things in the world better than a huge college football Saturday that lives up to its hype. We had been looking forward to Week 5 since the preseason, and it delivered. So instead of compiling a “My Favorite Games of the Week” list at the bottom of this week’s recap column, we’re going to build the whole column out of My Favorite Games!
With Florida State facing its first road test of the season and TCU and Arizona State facing off in a key Big 12 battle, Friday night looked like it was going to be awesome. It was more than that. Arizona State and TCU went down to the wire, Houston-Oregon State was surprisingly awesome, and the game between YAC kings in Charlottesville exceeded all expectations.
Thanks in part to an early fumble from FSU’s Gavin Sawchuk and an acrobatic red zone interception from UVA’s Ja’son Prevard, Virginia led 14-0 early in the second quarter. When FSU scored on three straight drives, however, this game looked as if it would belong to the “Underdog lands some shots early, then fades” category. We see a lot of those games.
Virginia just kept responding, however. J’Mari Taylor tied the game at 21-21 before halftime, Chandler Morris scored his second rushing touchdown, and Morris threw a go-ahead TD to Xavier Brown with 7:20 left. FSU sent the game to overtime with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Tommy Castellanos to Randy Pittman Jr. with 36 seconds left; I was surprised FSU didn’t go for two points and the win, but perhaps coach Mike Norvell simply trusted that his offense was more likely to keep scoring. Nope! The Seminoles didn’t net a single first down in two overtime possessions. First, both teams settled for field goals. Then Morris scored again and hit Trell Harris for the 2-point conversion. Prevard picked off Castellanos’ desperation heave, and one of the most rapid field-stormings you’ll ever see followed.
0:49
Fans rush the field after UVA upsets No. 8 FSU
Florida State is unable to convert on fourth down in double overtime against Virginia, and fans storm the field.
I’m not going to lie: That was both exhilarating and terrifying to watch. But it had been quite a while since Cavaliers fans got to celebrate such a win — their last home victory over a top-10 team was in 2005. That win was also against Florida State. And in a fun nod to history, the Cavaliers had also scored one of the great weeknight upsets of all time in 1995 against, yes, Florida State again. Thirty years later, they did it again.
The win was big because every fan base deserves moments like this. It was also big because it upended the ACC title race a bit. We head into October with Miami at the top of the pecking order, but lots of teams pretty close behind.
Current ACC title odds, per SP+
1. Miami 24.2%
2. Louisville 20.4%
3. Georgia Tech 10.3%
4. Virginia 10.2%
5. Duke 9.6%
6. Florida State 6.7%
7. SMU 5.1%
The winner of this coming Saturday’s Virginia-Louisville game is going to be awfully well-positioned to nab one of the slots in the ACC championship game. (Of course, knowing this conference’s history, we’ve got 26 more plot twists to go between now and then.)
There were six Big Ten games Saturday, and only one was decided before the final two minutes. I felt smart for suggesting in Friday’s preview that Washington might make Ohio State sweat for a while, but the Huskies’ challenge lasted only about 29 minutes in a 24-6 loss. Otherwise, however, every game was dynamite.
That included the night’s big headliner in Happy Valley, though it certainly took its time reaching a boil. In fact early in the fourth quarter it looked as if this would end up a blowout. After 47:35, Oregon led 17-3, having outgained Penn State by a 352-109 margin. (Yards per play to that point: 5.9 to 2.9.)
Out of nowhere, however, Drew Allar led two pristine touchdown drives, one quick and one languid; a lovely touchdown lob to Devonte Ross made it 17-10 Ducks, and a gorgeously designed pitch to Ross tied the game with 30 seconds left.
Penn State needed only three plays to score in overtime, and Oregon had to gut out a response, converting a fourth-and-1 and then scoring on a cluttered shovel pass up the middle to Jamari Johnson. Penn State still looked like the steadier team heading into the second OT, but two plays later, the game was over. Dante Moore connected with Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard score, and Dillon Thieneman appeared out of nowhere to pick off an Allar sideline pass. That was that.
Oregon is the real deal. The Ducks are No. 1 in SP+ and are getting what they need out of virtually every new and former transfer they’ve had to call upon, from Moore and Bryant, to much of the offensive line, to guys such as Thieneman on defense. And their two best offensive players Saturday night might have been freshmen: running back Dierre Hill Jr. (94 yards from scrimmage) and receiver Dakorien Moore (seven catches for 89 yards). Dante Moore aced the biggest test of his collegiate career, and led by head coach Dan Lanning, who seems to adore coaching in games such as this, the Ducks have won 19 of their past 20 games.
The narrative following this one, of course, focused mostly on the losing team. I tend to hate narratives; they’re almost always lazy and oversimplified, and one of the major reasons I’ve pursued analytics as much as I have over my writing career is that I like shutting narratives down. That goes especially for the “can’t win the big one” trope. Tom Osborne couldn’t win the big one, nor could Bobby Bowden or Mack Brown. They couldn’t, and then they did. James Franklin wears the biggest, brightest “Can’t win the big one!” sign in the sport at the moment, and guess what: Of the 136 programs in FBS, at least 125 of them would trade places with Franklin’s Penn State in a heartbeat. Franklin has been undeniably awesome at his job for quite a while. Almost no team in the sport has proven to be more upset-proof. That the Nittany Lions lose only to awesome teams — and often by small margins — is a sign that they’re an awesome team.
However …
Many of Penn State’s recent losses to awesome teams have followed a very familiar script full of droughts, a lack of offensive ambition and a complete lack of faith in the quarterback. Andy Kotelnicki’s fourth-quarter playcalling was almost note-perfect — he has proven his playcalling chops for quite a while now — but it came after two straight quarters of ineffective nibbling. In last year’s CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame, Penn State scored one TD in its first six drives, then carved down the field beautifully for two late touchdowns. In last year’s Big Ten championship game, the Nittany Lions scored one TD in their first four drives and fell behind 28-10 before finding a rhythm and surging back (only to fall short).
It’s great to hold something in reserve for when you need it, and that’s a clear part of the Penn State approach in big games. But it’s producing awfully similar results, and it’s impossible not to notice that in his seven losses as a starter, Allar has averaged just 171 passing yards per game with a 50% completion rate and a 61.1 Total QBR. (It’s also not hard to notice that in the past two games in which he had a chance to win the game on Penn State’s final drive, he threw almost immediate interceptions.)
If someone says someone “can’t win the big one,” my natural instinct is to roll my eyes and assume the tables will turn pretty soon. But it’s hard to maintain that faith, in either Allar or Penn State, at the moment, not when it feels as if we’re watching reruns.
I feel like the Big 12 should sue the SEC for copyright infringement. An utterly nutty conference title race, loaded with close games and unexpected plot twists, is supposed to be the Big 12’s domain. But with Texas Tech’s early 2025 star turn and high-quality, unbeaten starts for Iowa State and BYU, the Big 12 race is looking pretty straight forward at the moment. Following these two huge Saturday games, however, the SEC’s title race leaves September in a place of glorious disarray.
SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 16.3%
Missouri 12.9%
Oklahoma 11.1%
Alabama 11.1%
Vanderbilt 9.7%
Texas 8.5%
Tennessee 7.2%
Texas A&M 6.2%
Georgia 5.2%
LSU 5.2%
To put that another way, the six above teams that have won a national title in the past 25 years (Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia and LSU) have a combined 48.3% chance of winning the SEC. The other four teams above — which have combined for a single outright conference title in the past 50 years (Texas A&M’s 1998 Big 12 crown) — are at 45.1%.
(Other teams have tiny chances that bring the total to 100%. And no, Oklahoma’s odds aren’t affected by quarterback John Mateer‘s recent hand injury.)
We basically have a 50-50 shot at a team enjoying its first conference title in a very long time.
Brilliant early play from Missouri and Vanderbilt has certainly juiced these odds in their favor a bit, and after last year’s No. 2 finish in SP+, we shouldn’t be all that surprised Ole Miss has a puncher’s shot at a conference crown. But I literally laughed out loud when I saw the list above. The SEC is in an incredibly strange place at the moment, and I’m here for it.
Saturday’s Alabama and Ole Miss wins certainly added to the chaotic vibe, and both came down to clutch late-down conversions. First, Ole Miss outgained LSU by a 480-254 margin and led by 10 at the half and 11 early in the fourth quarter. But the Rebels settled for a field goal in the first quarter and lost a fumble in the end zone in the second, allowing LSU to hang around, and Harlem Berry‘s touchdown with 5:04 left brought the Tigers within five points. When Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss foolishly allowed himself to get pushed out of bounds on a third-down rush, stopping the clock with 1:47 left and bringing up a fourth down, it wasn’t hard to see the Tigers stealing this one. But Chambliss found Dae’Quan Wright for a picture-perfect 20-yard gain on fourth-and-3, and Ole Miss kneeled out the win.
On Saturday evening in Athens, Alabama did what it did early against Georgia last season but changed the script for how things played out late. The Crimson Tide scored on four of their five first-half possessions, racking up 262 yards and a 24-14 halftime lead. Ty Simpson was 11-for-16 for 132 yards, Bama was 5-for-8 on third downs (Georgia was 0-for-3), and everything was working.
And then, in the second half, a rock fight broke out. Bama almost seemed Penn State-esque, going ultra-conservative and saving any actually good offensive plays for when Georgia finally took the lead. Only, it never happened. The Dawgs got to within three points on the first drive of the third quarter, but they punted twice and failed on a fourth-and-1 from the Bama 8 with 13:20 left in the fourth quarter when LT Overton and Deontae Lawson stormed the backfield on a hurry-up snap and knocked Cash Jones off-balance for a 3-yard loss. Georgia never got another shot. Thanks to a 7-yard pass from Simpson to Jam Miller on third-and-5 with 1:51 left, Bama was also able to kneel out the win.
By the way, if you’re a fan of the transitive property, I do have to point out that Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, which beat NC State, which beat Virginia, which beat Florida State, which beat Alabama, which beat Georgia. ODU for the CFP???
Tennessee let a potential upset of Georgia slip through its fingers two weeks ago and is still looking ahead at a schedule that includes trips to Alabama and Florida and visits from Oklahoma and surging Vanderbilt. This was not the time to suffer an upset against an upstart — we know from Ole Miss’ and Alabama’s 2024 experiences that untimely upset losses will doom you awfully quickly — but Mississippi State sure looked like it was going to finish the job early Saturday evening. Despite two defensive touchdowns for the Vols (and a yards-per-play advantage of 6.5 to 4.4 for UT), MSU took the lead on four separate occasions and held a 34-27 advantage midway through the fourth quarter with Tennessee forcing a fourth-and-4. But Joey Aguilar found star receiver Chris Brazzell II for a first down, and Aguilar took in a touchdown on the first play after the two-minute timeout.
Tennessee’s DeSean Bishop scored on the first play of overtime, then Arion Carter broke up a fourth-down pass from Blake Shapen to Anthony Evans III.
If the loose playoff goal for an SEC team is to reach 10-2, this comeback saved Tennessee’s bacon. The Vols still have a 40% chance of reaching 10-2 or better. That number would have been about 10% with a loss here.
Arizona State has won nine straight Big 12 games going back to last season, and four of them were decided by five or fewer points. The last two were decided by 27-24 scores.
This Friday night result seemed rather unlikely. TCU, unbeaten and confident, dominated on the way to a 17-0 lead late in the first half, and after the Sun Devils charged back to tie, Josh Hoover‘s 1-yard touchdown gave the Horned Frogs another lead that they held with two minutes left. But a pair of defensive penalties and a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson tied the game. And then Prince Dorbah made maybe the best play of the entire weekend.
It’s DORBAH ‼️@prince_dorbah pic.twitter.com/fMN1TulfJt
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) September 27, 2025
Dorbah’s strip sack set up a go-ahead field goal for Jesus Gomez, and Martell Hughes‘ interception 25 seconds later clinched the win.
It was fair to assume that, with such an experienced squad, Illinois was going to respond with physicality and quality after last week’s humiliating loss to Indiana. The Illini ended up needing an extra reserve of resilience too.
They led 31-17 with 10 minutes left, but two Makai Lemon touchdowns (and a 2-point conversion from Lemon), combined with an Illinois fumble deep in Trojan territory, gave USC a sudden 32-31 lead with 1:55 remaining. With help from a pass interference penalty, though, Illinois was able to drive to the USC 24 in the closing seconds, and David Olano‘s 41-yard field goal saved the day.
After jumping out to a 14-0 lead against NC State but falling 34-24, Wake Forest came even closer to an upset Saturday. The Demon Deacons led 20-3 early in the second half and had a chance to close out a 23-20 upset with less than two minutes left. But Robby Ashford, thinking Tech had jumped offside on a third-and-5 and he had a free play, threw an incomplete deep ball, stopping the clock. No flag was thrown — the Tech defender was in the process of jumping back behind the line of scrimmage when the ball was snapped and came awfully close — and Wake was forced to punt. With the extra seconds, Tech drove for a field goal and picked off a 2-point pass in overtime to somehow keep its unbeaten record intact.
In a game neither team led by more than 7 points, Central Connecticut looked to have forced overtime with a short Michael Trovarelli touchdown with 58 seconds left. But unfortunately for the Blue Devils, they, um, forgot to cover Ky’Dric Fisher.
THE GAME WINNING TOUCHDOWN CATCH BY KY’DRIC FISHER pic.twitter.com/QhMeLe858F
— Dartmouth Football (@DartmouthFTBL) September 27, 2025
I can’t really say Kansas did a ton wrong here — the Jayhawks got a huge day from Jalon Daniels (445 passing yards and four TDs) and Emmanuel Henderson (214 receiving yards and two of those scores) and basically split third downs with the Bearcats and committed far fewer penalties. But Cincy’s Brendan Sorsby completed passes to nine different receivers and threw two touchdown passes to Cyrus Allen.
When Levi Wentz gave KU its first lead in nearly 55 minutes with a short touchdown reception with 1:45 left, the Jayhawks left too much time on the clock. Sorsby completed a fourth-and-10 pass to Noah Jennings, and Tawee Walker plunged in with the game-winning points with 29 seconds on the clock.
The longer the road trip, the better the Cal result. The Golden Bears beat Auburn, Wake Forest and Pitt on the road last season, and despite a dreadful start in Chestnut Hill — Boston College led 14-0 after just eight minutes — they produced a win in their longest ACC road trip yet. Kendrick Raphael gave Cal its first lead with 13:47 left, but Turbo Richard‘s 71-yard turbo boost made it 24-21 BC. After a fourth-down pass interference call bought Cal time, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hit Mason Mini down the left sideline for a 51-yard score.
0:25
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini
BC drove the length of the field, but Luke Ferrelli stepped in front of a Dylan Lonergan pass and the Golden Bears prevailed.
Oregon State can’t catch a break. After watching a late lead against Fresno State disappear earlier in the season, the winless Beavers played their best game of the season and led 24-10 with six minutes left. But Conner Weigman threw touchdown passes to Stephon Johnson and Tanner Koziol, and when a late Maalik Murphy-to-Trent Walker completion set up a shot at a game-winning field goal for OSU, basically the entire Cougar lineup broke into the backfield to block it.
0:31
Houston blocks Oregon State’s winning FG attempt to force OT
Multiple Houston defenders break through to block Cameron Smith’s winning field goal attempt for Oregon State.
It was Houston’s second blocked field goal of the night, and it made the ending feel preordained. In overtime, Brandon Mack and Zelmar Vedder stuffed OSU’s Cornell Hatcher Jr. on fourth-and-1, then Ethan Sanchez nailed the 24-yarder to keep Houston unbeaten.
Indiana passed yet another test, taking on upset-minded Iowa in Iowa City and misfiring for much of the middle of the game. Trailing 13-10 with less than 10 minutes left, the Hoosiers got a 44-yard field goal from Nico Radicic and a 49-yard catch-and-go from Elijah Sarratt to take the lead. This being an Iowa game, a late safety was legally required, but Indiana held on.
Last week, San Diego trailed Princeton 35-14 in the second quarter before storming back to win, 42-35. The Toreros decided the only way to follow that up was to spot St. Thomas a 27-10 lead midway through the third quarter. After a 54-yard touchdown pass from Dom Nankil to Cole Monarch cut the Tommies’ lead to 27-24, two fourth-quarter field goals from Emiliano Salazar — including a 25-yarder with two seconds left — sealed another wild comeback.
15. Div. II: No. 8 California (Pa.) 45, No. 4 Slippery Rock 38
As with FBS, Division II’s biggest game of the week went down to the wire. In front of 7,670 in Slippery Rock, Cal scored five touchdowns in 13 minutes to take a shocking 35-14 lead, but the Rock slowly reeled the Vulcans in. Kevin Roberts’ early-fourth-quarter field goal gave Slippery Rock a 38-35 lead, but Cal quickly retied the game, then took the win with Kendrick Agenor’s 14-yard touchdown run with 60 seconds left.
It was almost overshadowed by the two other wild Saturday afternoon SEC games, but A&M almost let one slip through its grasp.
The Aggies erased the Auburn defense and outgained the Tigers, 414-177, but their last six scoring chances resulted in five field goal attempts (two missed) and an interception that Xavier Atkins returned 73 yards to set up a short score. Somehow Auburn got the ball with a chance to win at the end, but poor Jackson Arnold got crushed by Dayon Hayes on fourth down — A&M’s fifth sack of the day and the 15th time Arnold has been sacked in two weeks — and the Aggies survived.
San José State did almost everything right. The Spartans methodically built a 12-point fourth-quarter lead as their in-game win probability crept over 90%. But the Cardinal drove 80 yards in the final three minutes, thanks in part to a 34-yard Caden High reception on fourth-and-10, and Sedrick Irvin‘s short touchdown gave them the lead with 19 seconds left. SJSU nearly drove into field goal range, but Leland Smith couldn’t hold onto a pass over the middle, and the Spartans came up short.
18. Div. III: Alma 29, No. 15 Hope 26
19. Div. III: Maryville 34, Pikeville 30
Big week for Scots! Both the Alma Scots and Maryville Scots came up with late heroics. In front of 3,206 in Holland, Michigan, Alma took down no-longer-unbeaten Hope by bolting to an early 14-0 lead and holding on for dear life. Hope tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation but had to settle for a field goal in the first overtime. Facing fourth-and-goal from the 2, Alma went for the win and got it thanks to a touchdown pass from Carter St. John to Miles Haggart.
About 600 miles south in Maryville, Tennessee, Maryville looked as if it would cruise over NAIA’s Pikeville in front of 5,576. The Scots led 27-10 late in the first half, but a 20-0 run put the visitors on top. No worries! Maryville drove 86 yards in 44 seconds, and Bryson Rollins found Jalen McCullough with 35 seconds left to save the day.
For the second straight week, Rutgers enticed a rock-fight connoisseur into a track meet of sorts — Iowa last week, Minnesota this week — but couldn’t actually win it. A 4-yard Drake Lindsay-to-Javon Tracy touchdown gave the Gophers the lead with 3:19 left, but Rutgers worked the ball into field goal range until a devastating, 15-yard Rushawn Lawrence sack of Athan Kaliakmanis forced Dane Pizzaro to attempt a 56-yarder. He missed.
Hell yeah, Hokies. After starting 2025 so dismally that head coach Brent Pry was fired after just three games, Tech has won two straight. Terion Stewart enjoyed a breakout performance with 174 rushing yards, Kyron Drones threw two touchdown passes and Christian Ellis broke up a fourth-and-1 pass with 42 seconds left to clinch the win.
22. NAIA: No. 15 Dordt 21, No. 14 Northwestern (Iowa) 20
Dordt entered Week 5 as NAIA’s No. 1 team, per SP+, and the Defenders rallied to score a big road win over the 2022 national champs. After trailing 17-0 late in the second quarter, they took their first lead with just 13 seconds left, when Connor Dodd capped a 93-yard drive with a 4-yard TD catch.
This was easily UCLA’s best chance at avoiding a winless 2025 season, but as with their loss to UNLV, they spotted their hosts a big early lead and couldn’t quite catch up. They cut a 17-0 deficit to 17-14 with six minutes left, but two last-ditch drives went nowhere.
Pitt made this one as messy and chaotic as Pat Narduzzi could have hoped and bolted to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, but the Panthers couldn’t hold on. Louisville remained unbeaten by pitching a second-half shutout; the Cardinals took their first lead with 7:03 remaining, and their third interception of the day, with four seconds left, closed things out.
25. Div. II: No. 17 Central Washington 91, Western New Mexico 31
I had to end this list with one of the most confounding box scores I’ve ever seen.
Total yards: CWU 499, WNMU 468
First downs: WNMU 24, CWU 20
Red zone trips: CWU 6, WNMU 4
Touchdowns: CWU 13, WNMU 4
What??
CWU played an almost perfect first quarter, gaining 253 yards in 14 snaps and going up 35-0. The Wildcats then proceeded to score touchdowns on a kickoff return, another kickoff return two minutes later and a third-quarter pick-six. And because of turnovers and special teams, they had touchdown drives of 5, 40, 44 and 47 yards. And they managed to score nearly 100 points with less than 500 yards. College football is only ever allowed to make so much sense.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (26-for-34 passing for 321 yards, 5 TDs and an INT, plus 83 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Utah State).
2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (20-for-26 passing for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 36 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against USC).
3. CJ Carr, Notre Dame (22-for-30 passing for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns against Arkansas).
4. Dante Moore, Oregon (29-for-39 passing for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 35 non-sack rushing yards against Penn State).
5. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24-for-38 passing for 276 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Georgia).
6. Prince Dorbah, Arizona State (4 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery against TCU).
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (23-for-39 passing for 314 yards, a TD and an INT, plus 71 non-sack rushing yards against LSU).
8. Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati (29-for-43 passing for 388 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards against Kansas).
9. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (19-for-28 passing for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 58 non-sack rushing yards against Cincinnati).
10. Xavier Atkins, Auburn (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, a sack, a forced fumble and a 73-yard interception return against Texas A&M).
I wrote about awesome running backs last week, but Week 5 belonged to quarterbacks. CJ Carr enjoyed by far the best performance of his career, and the winners of the two huge night games, Bama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore, both shined. But I gave the top two spots to a couple of veteran overachievers. Luke Altmyer completed four passes of 25-plus yards, all in the second half, and produced a 97.5 Total QBR rating. Diego Pavia, meanwhile, remains Diego Pavia: absurdly efficient via run and pass. He produced 404 total yards and six touchdowns, and if he wasn’t already in the Heisman discussion, he should be now.
Honorable mention:
• Micah Alejado, Hawaii (35-for-47 passing for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns against Air Force).
• Raleek Brown, Arizona State (21 carries for 134 yards, plus 50 receiving yards against TCU).
• Greg Desrosiers Jr., Memphis (19 carries for 204 yards and 3 touchdowns against FAU).
• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (16 carries for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 78 receiving yards and a touchdown against South Alabama).
• Emmanuel Henderson, Kansas (5 catches for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cincinnati).
• Trent Hendrick, JMU (11 tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Georgia Southern).
• Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (24-for-35 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Oklahoma State)
• Nate Sheppard, Duke (15 carries for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 33 receiving yards against Syracuse).
• Liam Szarka, Air Force (10-for-12 passing for 278 yards, 3 TDs and an INT, plus 152 non-sack rushing yards against Hawaii).
Through five weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (21 points)
2T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15 points)
2T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15 points)
4. Jayden Maiava, USC (12 points)
5T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)
5T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10 points)
5T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10 points)
5T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
9T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (nine points)
9T. Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)
9T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (nine points)
9T. Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)
9T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (nine points)
We’re seeing the beginnings of a sync-up between the points race and the betting odds. Obviously, Taylen Green (tied for second in the points race) isn’t a serious Heisman candidate, but points leader Ty Simpson is up to No. 3 in the betting odds, and Mendoza, Pavia, Stockton and Chambliss are in the top 10 of both the points and the odds. Still, it’s incredible how little has been settled as we approach the midway point of the season.
Arkansas fired Sam Pittman on Sunday, parting ways with the popular and folksy coach who couldn’t get the Razorbacks into the upper echelon of the SEC with a middling overall record of 32-34.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, a former head coach at Arkansas before he left in scandal, was appointed interim head coach for the remainder of the season.
“I want to thank coach Pittman for his service and dedication to the University of Arkansas throughout his time as head coach,” athletic director Hunter Yurachek said in a statement. “From Day 1, you could tell how much this opportunity meant to him. At this time, however, I feel a change is necessary to put our student-athletes and program in the best position to be successful. The goal for our football program is to be highly competitive within the Southeastern Conference and compete for a national championship.”
Because Pittman’s overall record since 2021 was above .500 (29-27), per his contract Arkansas owes him a buyout of nearly $9.8 million.
Pittman was the fourth power conference coach fired this season — all in the final two weeks of September — following Brent Pry at Virginia Tech, DeShaun Foster at UCLA and Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State.
The move at Arkansas came one day after the Razorbacks fell to 2-3 with a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame. The Hogs have this week off before a game at Tennessee on Oct. 11.
Pittman, 63, was named the Razorbacks’ 34th head coach in December 2019.
“As we move forward in the process of finding our next head coach, I am certain we will be able to provide the necessary resources to our staff and team to reach our goals. We will begin a national search for our next head coach immediately and that search will include Coach Petrino, who has expressed his desire to be a candidate for the full-time job,” Yurachek said.
Petrino, 64, was rehired by Arkansas in November 2023 after serving in a number of jobs. In four years leading the Razorbacks, Petrino went 34-17, including consecutive double-digit-victory seasons in 2010 and 2011.
He had the Razorbacks rolling when in April 2012 he was involved in a single-vehicle motorcycle crash that left him with four broken ribs. At first, he said he was riding alone, but a police report revealed a woman was riding with him. The woman turned out to be a former Arkansas athlete who was in a romantic relationship with the married Petrino. The coach had given her a job in the football program and a $20,000 gift.
He was fired by then-athletic director Jeff Long for misleading his bosses about what happened with the accident and his relationship with the football staffer.
ESPN’s Pete Thamel and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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