Connect with us

Published

on

The Bank of England has signalled that a weakening labour market could yet trump rising global challenges to allow for more interest rate cuts in the near term.

Policymakers on the nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) voted 7-3 to maintain Bank rate at 4.25%.

There was greater support than was expected for a cut.

The Bank had previously signalled that a majority on the committee were cautious about the effects of global instability – especially the on-off US trade war.

Money latest: What interest rate decision means for your money

But the minutes of the Bank’s meeting showed there was a greater focus on a rising jobless rate and evidence that employers are shedding jobs – indicating it had dominated the meeting.

It acknowledged, however, that there were potential challenges from the on-off US trade war and as a result of the Israel-Iran conflict.

More on Bank Of England

The barrage of warheads has already resulted in double-digit percentage spikes to oil and natural gas prices in the space of a week.

“Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path,” governor Andrew Bailey said while adding that there was no pre-set path.

“The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation,” he added.

The Bank maintained its core message that it would take a “gradual” and “careful” approach.

“Energy prices had risen owing to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The committee would remain vigilant about these developments and their potential impact on the UK economy,” the Bank said.

The rise in the UK’s jobless rate, along with recent data on payrolled employment, has been linked to a business backlash against budget measures, which kicked in in April, that saw employer national insurance contributions and minimum pay demands rise.

While a weaker labour market, including a fall in vacancies, could allow room for the Bank to react through further interest rate cuts, the spectre of war in the Middle East is now clouding its rate judgements.

The last thing borrowers need is an inflation spike.

The UK’s core measure of inflation peaked above 11% in the wake of Russa’s invasion of Ukraine – giving birth to what became known as the cost of living crisis.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Businesses facing fresh energy cost threat

Inflation across the economy was driven by unprecedented spikes in natural gas costs, which pushed up not only household energy bills to record levels but those for businesses too – with the cost of goods and services reflecting those extra costs.

Borrowing costs have eased, through interest rate cuts, as the pace of price growth has come down.

The rate of inflation currently stands at 3.4% but was already forecast to rise in the second half of the year before the aerial bombardments between Israel and Iran had begun.

LSEG data shortly after the Bank of England minutes were published showed that financial markets were expecting a quarter point cut at the Bank’s next meeting in August and at least one more by the year’s end.

Read more:
Why Middle East conflict poses new cost of living threat

Commenting on the Bank’s remarks Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, said: “Conflict in the Middle East risks higher energy prices potentially pushing inflation higher – though calling the course of events there is almost certainly a mugs game, and the Bank has said that under current conditions it expects inflation to remain broadly at current levels for the rest of the year.

“The risk is that all the uncertainty leaves the Bank paralysed, with rates stuck at their current level,” he concluded.

Continue Reading

Business

All energy suppliers to offer lower standing charge tariff by January, regulator plans

Published

on

By

All energy suppliers to offer lower standing charge tariff by January, regulator plans

All household energy suppliers in Britain should introduce at least one lower standing charge tariff by the end of January, according to plans set out by the industry regulator.

Ofgem, which has been considering complaints that low energy users are unfairly penalised by the fees, says it is aiming to give consumers more choice.

But it admitted that the move was unlikely to reduce overall bills as reduced standing charges would likely be reflected in higher charges for units of energy used.

Money latest: The three crucial questions to ask estate agents

Standing charges are fixed daily fees added to unit prices households pay for gas and electricity.

They are designed to cover costs of connecting to the energy system and investment in new infrastructure.

The latter element is being cited as an increasing threat to bill levels given the need to prepare the electricity network for the green energy future demanded by the government.

More from Money

Ofgem dropped initial plans that could have seen the charges ditched entirely for some energy deals, in return for customers paying higher unit prices instead.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Energy boss makes case for nuclear future

Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “We’ve listened to thousands of consumers that wanted to see changes to the standing charge and taken action.

“We have carefully considered how we can offer more choice on how they pay these fixed costs, however we have taken care to ensure we don’t make some customers worse off.

“After examining all the options available to us, we believe that the right way forward is to require all major suppliers to offer at least one tariff with a lower standing charge.

“This will deliver the choice we know customers want, without having a detrimental impact on customers that have high energy needs.”

But he added: “We cannot remove these charges, we can only move costs around.

“These changes would give households the choice they have asked for, but it’s important that everyone carefully considers what’s right for them as these tariffs are unlikely to reduce bills on their own.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Government costs to raise bills from October

A final decision is due by the end of the year and could be introduced from late January.

It’s described by the regulator as a short-term measure as a review is carried out over how to best pay for the grid upgrades needed, including storage.

The move was announced as around 34 million households prepare for a 2% rise in the energy price cap from 1 October.

The 20 million on a fixed rate tariff will not be affected by the shift.

Read more:
Energy bill payers to back ‘super-battery’ projects
The changing face of your bill as poverty and climate demands grow

While high wholesale costs for gas have driven bills up sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the costs of government policy are making up a greater proportion of bills for both households and businesses.

The expansion of the warm home discount was the main factor behind October’s cap increase.

Emily Seymour, Which? Energy editor, said of the standing charges proposal: “For most of us, energy unit rates will make up the majority of our bill and standing charges will be a low proportion of the total.

“But for very low energy users, the daily standing charge will make up a larger amount of your bill and you could save money with one of these new tariffs as you will pay a lower standing charge every day.

“To figure out which type of energy tariff is best for them, people should look at their annual energy usage to see how much of it is typically made up of standing charges and how much is energy unit costs to see whether their usage is low enough to benefit from these new tariffs.”

Continue Reading

Business

Jaguar Land Rover production shutdown after cyber attack extended to 1 October

Published

on

By

Jaguar Land Rover production shutdown after cyber attack extended to 1 October

Britain’s largest car manufacturer, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), faces a prolonged shutdown of its global operations after the company announced an extension of the current closure, which began on 31 August, to at least 1 October.

The extension will cost JLR tens of millions of pounds a day in lost revenue, raise major concerns about companies and jobs in the supply chain, and raise further questions about the vulnerability of UK industry to cyber assaults.

A spokesperson said of the move: “We have made this decision to give clarity for the coming week as we build the timeline for the phased restart of our operations and continue our investigation.

Money latest: I was charged £885 for airport parking error

“Our teams continue to work around the clock alongside cybersecurity specialists, the NCSC and law enforcement to ensure we restart in a safe and secure manner.

“Our focus remains on supporting our customers, suppliers, colleagues, and our retailers who remain open. We fully recognise this is a difficult time for all connected with JLR and we thank everyone for their continued support and patience.”

More than 33,000 people work directly for JLR in the UK, many of them employed on assembly lines in the West Midlands, the largest of which is in Solihull, and a plant at Halewood on Merseyside.

An estimated 200,000 more are employed by several hundred companies in the supply chain, who face a prolonged interruption to trade with what for many will be their largest client.

The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its closure, and no incentive to resume until it is clear when it will be back in production.

Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.

Read more:
More than a quarter of cars sold in August were electric vehicles
FCA considers compensation scheme for car finance scandal – raising payout hopes

Another quarter are expected to make decisions this week, following JLR’s previous announcement that production would be paused until at least Wednesday.

JLR, which produces the Jaguar, Range Rover and Land Rover marques, has also been forced to halt production and assembly at facilities in China, Slovakia, India and Brazil after its IT systems were effectively disabled by the cyber attack.

JLR’s Solihull plant has been running short shifts with skeleton staff, with some teams understood to be carrying out basic maintenance while the production lines stand idle, including painting floors.

Among workers who had finished a half-shift last Friday, there was resignation to the uncertainty. “We have been told not to talk about it, and even if we could, we don’t know what’s happening,” said one.

Calls for support

The government has faced calls from unions to introduce a furlough-style scheme to protect jobs in the supply chain, but with JLR generating profits of £2.2bn last year, the company will face pressure to support its suppliers.

Industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said while government support should be the last resort, it should not be off the table.

“Whatever happens to JLR will reverberate through the supply chain,” chief executive Mike Hawes told Sky News.

“There are a huge number of suppliers in the UK, a mixture of large multinationals, but also a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises, and those are the ones who are most at risk. Some of them, maybe up to a quarter, have already had to lay off people. There’ll be another further 20-25% considering that in the next few days and weeks.

“It’s a very high bar for the government to intervene, but without the supply chain, you don’t have the major manufacturers and you don’t have an industry.”

What happened to the IT system?

JLR, owned by Indian conglomerate Tata, has provided no detail of the nature of the attack, but it is presumed to be a ransomware assault similar to that which debilitated Marks and Spencer and the Co-Op earlier this year.

As well as interrupting vehicle production, dealers have been unable to register vehicles or order spare parts, and even diagnostic software for analysing individual vehicles has been affected.

Last week, it said it was conducting a “forensic” investigation and considering how to stage the “controlled restart” of global production.

Speculation has centred on the vulnerability of IT support desks to surreptitious activity from hackers posing as employees to access passwords, as well as ‘phishing’ or other digital means of accessing systems.

In September 2023, JLR outsourced its IT and digital services to Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also a Tata-owned company, intended, it said, to “transform, simplify, and help manage its digital estate, and build a new future-ready, strategic technology architecture”.

Resilience risks

Three months earlier, TCS extended an existing agreement with M&S, saying it would “improve resilience and pace of innovation, and drive sustainable growth.”

Officials from the National Cyber Security Centre are thought to be assisting JLR with their investigations, while officials and ministers from the Department for Business and International Trade have been kept informed of the situation.

Liam Byrne, a Birmingham MP and chair of the Business and Trade Select Committee, said the JLR closure raises concerns about the resilience of UK business.

“British business is now much more vulnerable for two reasons. One, many of these cyber threats have got bad states behind them. Russia, North Korea, Iran. These are serious players.

“Second, the attack surface that business is exposed to is now much bigger, because their digital operations are much bigger. They’ll be global organisations. They might have their IT outsourced in another country. So the vulnerability is now much greater than in the past.”

Continue Reading

Business

Rachel Reeves urged to cut national insurance and hike income tax in upcoming budget

Published

on

By

Rachel Reeves urged to cut national insurance and hike income tax in upcoming budget

Rachel Reeves has been urged by a think tank to cut national insurance and increase income tax to create a “level playing field” and protect workers’ pay.

The Resolution Foundation said the chancellor should send a “decisive signal” that she will make “tough decisions” on tax.

Ms Reeves is expected to outline significant tax rises in the upcoming budget in November.

The Resolution Foundation has suggested these changes should include a 2p cut to national insurance as well as a 2p rise in income tax, which Adam Corlett, its principal economist, said “should form part of wider efforts to level the playing field on tax”.

The think tank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would help to address “unfairness” in the tax system.

As more people pay income tax than national insurance, including pensioners and landlords, the think tank estimates the switch would go some way in raising the £20bn in tax it thinks would be needed by 2029/2030 to offset increased borrowing costs, flat growth and new spending commitments. Other estimates go as high as £51bn.

Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News
Image:
Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News

‘Significant tax rises needed’

Another proposal by the think tank would see a gradual lowering of the threshold at which businesses pay VAT from £90,000 to £30,000, as this would help “promote fair competition” and raise £2bn by the end of the decade.

The Resolution Foundation also recommends increasing the tax on dividends, addressing a “worrying” growth in unpaid corporation tax from small businesses, applying a carbon charge to long-haul flights and shipping, and expanding taxation of sugar and salt.

“Policy U-turns, higher borrowing costs and lower productivity growth mean that the chancellor will need to act to avoid borrowing costs rising even further this autumn,” Mr Corlett said.

“Significant tax rises will be needed for the chancellor to send a clear signal that the UK’s public finances are under control.”

He added that while any tax rises are “likely to be painful”, Ms Reeves should do “all she can to avoid loading further pain onto workers’ pay packets”.

The government has repeatedly insisted it will keep its manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.

A Treasury spokesperson said in response to the think tank report it does “not comment on speculation around future changes to tax policy”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Is Britain heading towards a new financial crisis?

Chancellor urged to freeze alcohol duty

Meanwhile, Ms Reeves has been urged to freeze alcohol duty in the upcoming budget and not increase the rate of excise tax on alcohol until the end of the current parliament.

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), UK Spirits Alliance, Welsh Whisky Association, English Whisky Guild and Drinks Ireland said in an open letter that the current regime was “unfair” and has put a “strain” on members who are “struggling”.

The bodies are also urging Ms Reeves “to ensure there will be no further widening of the tax differential between spirits and other alcohol categories”.

A Treasury spokesperson said there will be no export duty, lower licensing fees, reduced tariffs, and a cap on corporation tax to make it easier for British distilleries to thrive.

Leave retailers alone, Reeves told

This comes as the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food inflation will rise and remain above 5% into next year if the retail industry is hit by further tax rises in the November budget.

The BRC voiced concerns that around 4,000 large shops could experience a rise in their business rates if they are included in the government’s new surtax for properties with a rateable value – an estimation of how much it would cost to rent a property for a year – over £500,000, and this could lead to price rises for consumers.

Read more:
Food inflation at 18-month high
Stealth’ and ‘sin’ taxes expected to rise
Firms cut jobs at fastest pace since 2021

Latest ONS figures put food inflation at 4.9%, the highest level since 2022/2023.

The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged last week amid fears that rising food prices were putting mounting pressure on headline inflation.

“The biggest risk to food prices would be to include large shops – including supermarkets – in the new surtax on large properties,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

She added: “Removing all shops from the surtax can be done without any cost to the taxpayer, and would demonstrate the chancellor’s commitment to bring down inflation.”

Continue Reading

Trending