‘Absolutely botched’: How the Red Sox-Devers breakup got so messy
AWAITING TAKEOFF ON the Boston Red Sox‘s charter flight early Sunday evening, Rafael Devers sat with his teammates playing cards. The trip to Seattle would take a little more than six hours, and games were a reliable way to pass the time, a carefree bonding exercise for a team coming off a sweep of the rival New York Yankees. This was going to be a good flight.
Before the Boeing 757 lifted off, Red Sox manager Alex Cora approached Devers with a solemn look on his face. He had news, and there was no easy way to say it: Devers had just been traded to the San Francisco Giants. Devers was gobsmacked. He gathered his thoughts and belongings, said goodbye to his teammates, strolled off the plane and into a cab, and rode off to the next phase of his life.
For months, the tension between Devers and the team had simmered. What started in spring training as a repairable mismanagement of Devers’ future — and his ego — by the Red Sox degraded into something far too familiar for the organization. Devers, according to a person familiar with his thinking, felt “lied to and betrayed” by the Red Sox. Cora, long one of Devers’ chief supporters and advocates, supported his expulsion. Craig Breslow, the Red Sox’s chief baseball officer whom Devers publicly badmouthed amid the hostility, played hatchet man. Red Sox ownership, which at first wanted to mend the relationship between the parties knowing that two years earlier it had guaranteed him $313.5 million to play a central role in a forthcoming resurgence, lost faith and greenlit the deal. And just like that, the last remaining member of Boston’s 2018 championship team, the kid who had signed with the team as a fresh-faced 16-year-old and a dozen years later had grown into a three-time All-Star and one of the best bats in the major leagues, was gone. The simmer had boiled over.
Devers wasn’t the only one blindsided. When the news broke, Red Sox fans did not believe it. They did not want to believe it. It was happening. Again. The package heading to Boston — left-handed starter Kyle Harrison, outfield prospect James Tibbs III, hard-throwing reliever Jordan Hicks and young pitcher Jose Bello — felt light for a player with the track record and productivity of Devers. It felt all too similar to the underwhelming return of the trade five years ago that sent future Hall of Famer Mookie Betts from the Red Sox to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Eighty-six years of failure leading up to their 2004 World Series win had calloused Red Sox fans and the organization alike. Even as the team became the most successful in the sport, with four titles in a 15-year span, dysfunction was never far from the surface. While winning those rings, the team suffered a historic collapse in 2011, last-place finishes in 2012, 2014 and 2015 — complete with made-for-tabloids drama about chicken and beer in the clubhouse — and the disastrous Betts trade. The one constant was an ugliness that personified the exits of some of the most prominent pieces of the Red Sox’s success.
Theo Epstein, a lifelong Bostonian and the architect of the curse-breaking 2004 team, grew so tired of his clashes with ownership that he quit on Halloween a year after his triumph and exited Fenway Park in a gorilla suit. He returned, only to later abscond for the Chicago Cubs. Terry Francona, the manager for the championships in 2004 and 2007, left alongside Epstein in 2011, was smeared anonymously for his usage of pain pills — he denied the allegations — and went on to win four division titles and go 921-757 in 11 years with Cleveland. Players were not spared the drama, either. Ace Jon Lester wanted to re-sign with the Red Sox, only to get lowballed; he followed Epstein to Chicago. Betts preferred to remain in Boston, but not at a discount — and the Red Sox shipped him out. Manny Ramirez offered perhaps the best description of life with the Red Sox a day before they traded him to the Dodgers in 2008, telling ESPN Deportes: “Mental peace has no price, and I don’t have peace here.”
The Red Sox have everything an organization could want — a rabid fan base, a gorgeous stadium, a successful television network, a history that dates to the turn of the 20th century — and still find themselves regularly salving self-inflicted wounds. Chaos is every bit as much the Red Sox’s brand as the Green Monster. The current iteration comes not from the detritus of a long-standing lack of success but an operating philosophy that better resembles plucky mid- and small-market teams than a financial leviathan. The Red Sox are big-market baseball in a funhouse mirror, a distorted reflection of what could be — and should be.
Breslow is not naïve to the chaos. He grew up in New England and spent five seasons pitching for Boston. Epstein hired Breslow in 2019 with the Cubs and entrusted in him the organization’s pitching program. The Red Sox poached him to replace Chaim Bloom in October 2023 with a specific mandate: Whatever it takes, remake the Red Sox to rekindle the early-century glory days. That’s even when it means trading the team’s best player.
RAFAEL DEVERS GREW up a Boston Red Sox fan in Samana, Dominican Republic. The Red Sox were the unofficial team of the small Caribbean island that had grown into the most fertile hotbed of talent in the world. The team’s biggest stars — David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez — were Dominican. Devers turned 8 three days before the 2004 championship. Nine years later, when the Red Sox were barreling toward their third title in a decade, he signed with them for $1.5 million.
At 20, Devers arrived in Boston as a hitting savant, his left-handed swing loaded with power, and stabilized a third-base position that had been a revolving door. In his first full year, Devers shook off an inconsistent regular season to drive in nine runs over 11 postseason games, capping a 108-win campaign widely regarded as the best in the team’s century-plus history.
After carrying the highest payroll in MLB in 2018 and 2019, owner John Henry tightened the purse strings. And when Betts was shipped out in 2020 and longtime shortstop Xander Bogaerts followed him west to sign as a free agent with San Diego for $280 million — $100 million-plus more than Boston’s final offer — the restlessness of Red Sox fans hit overdrive. Save for a surprising run to the American League Championship Series in 2021, mediocrity had become a Red Sox norm. The days of Papi and Manny and Pedro were nearly two decades in the rearview. Devers was their lone homegrown every-day player.
He represented an opportunity for the Red Sox to illustrate they remained dedicated to the now as much as the future. Making moves to mollify restless fans is a hallmark of bad organizations, but with declining viewership on NESN and empty seats at Fenway, ownership pushed to lock up Devers long-term. Multiple high-ranking officials in the baseball operations department opposed the idea. They were overruled. In January 2023, Devers agreed to a 10-year, $313.5 million contract extension that would begin in 2024.
It was the largest commitment in franchise history. Executives around the game questioned the wisdom of the deal. Yes, Devers had grown into a consistently excellent hitter — from 2019 to ’22, his OPS+ ranked 25th among the 247 hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances. And, sure, in a market like Boston, where fandom is religion, placating the masses matters. But the questions, in their minds, outweighed those factors. How soon would Devers need to move off third base, where he was a below-average defender? How would his body, always squatty, age? How often did long-term contracts for one-dimensional players work out? Just because it was a deal that needed to happen didn’t make it a good one.
No signs of discord or regret surfaced until February. Boston’s recent aborted attempts at contending — team chairman Tom Werner famously said the Red Sox intended to go “full throttle” into free agency after the 2023 season, only for them to spend $50 million total and go 81-81 — had failed, but this year was going to be different. Amid all the losing, Bloom had drafted and developed a cadre of position-playing prospects. Breslow traded three, plus a hard-throwing right-hander, for ace Garrett Crochet in December. He signed World Series standout Walker Buehler to join Crochet in an overhauled rotation and veteran closer Aroldis Chapman to shore up the back end of the bullpen. And despite the presence of Devers, Boston found itself in the mix for third baseman Alex Bregman, whose free agency had lingered to the cusp of spring training.
When the prospect of Bregman going to Boston surfaced, Breslow assured Devers’ camp that nothing serious was afoot — and that if it were, he would let Devers know. Cora wanted to meet with Devers in the Dominican Republic during the offseason, but Devers did not respond to messages, which was not entirely surprising — he typically goes off the grid upon his winter retreat to Samana — but disappointed some in the organization. Though the Red Sox were simultaneously pursuing Bregman and St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado, there wasn’t enough confidence in a deal being consummated with either to flag Devers.
Then Boston made its final offer to Bregman as negotiations with other teams wound down: three years, $120 million, with opt-outs after the first two seasons. Within an hour, Bregman accepted. Devers found out when the news broke. He was not panicked — Red Sox officials said privately they planned on using Bregman at second base — but the move registered as curious nevertheless.
When Devers showed up at spring training, the team broached the idea of him shifting to designated hitter. Their computer model said the best version of the 2025 Red Sox would feature reigning Minor League Player of the Year Kristian Campbell at second base, Bregman at third and Devers at DH. Devers was livid. A player’s position is part of his identity. He was a third baseman. Beyond that, though, was a breach in the trust implicit in a contract of Devers’ magnitude.
At the very least, if the Red Sox were intent on him moving positions, he wanted to ease into the new role. Play a couple times a week at third base and take the rest of his at-bats as DH. No, he was told. This was what was best for the team.
The front office’s tack reinforced the feeling in the clubhouse that the organization’s reliance on analytics for decision-making had come at the expense of productive interpersonal communication. At the same time, players acknowledged that Devers DHing probably would allow them to field their best lineup. After initially saying he wouldn’t DH, Devers wound up relenting. After Cora told him to not even bother bringing a glove to the spring training fields, he was comfortable that at least he could focus only on hitting.
Everything changed on May 2. First baseman Triston Casas suffered a season-ending knee injury. The internal options were limited. Breslow approached Devers about moving to first. Devers couldn’t believe it. He had already changed positions against his will once. Now the Red Sox were asking him to do it again. The disrespect galled him.
The team didn’t believe the ask was too much. They hadn’t asked him to be a clubhouse leader, a role for which he wasn’t particularly well-suited. They didn’t belabor his fitness or weakness in the field. This is what the money was for: to play where the team needed him to play and keep raking like one of the best hitters in the world.
He was holding up the latter part of that ask. Amid all of the consternation, Devers was evolving into perhaps the best version of himself yet. In the 73 games he played with Boston this season, he walked 56 times — just 11 short of his career best. He was still hitting for power and neared the top of the big league leaderboard for runs batted in. For a team trying to integrate Campbell as well as rookies Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer, Devers was a rock in the No. 2 hole. Teams in transitional phases like the Red Sox need players on whom they can rely, and Devers’ bat was nothing if not reliable.
His refusal to play first, though, coalesced ownership, the front office and the coaching staff. If they were going to build the sort of winning culture that permeated the organization throughout the 2000s and 2010s, what sort of message did it send that the team’s best player refused to do what they felt was best for the team? After Devers told the media he would not play first, Henry, Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy and Breslow flew to Kansas City, where Boston was playing, to speak with Devers. He met again with Henry for breakfast the next day, according to a source. Devers indicated he would prepare to play the position in 2026 if the team wanted to move him there full-time. While publicly the Red Sox deemed the meetings productive, they knew what was happening next.
Rafael Devers was getting traded, public consequences be damned.
EARLY IN BRESLOW’S tenure as chief baseball officer, he hired a consulting firm called Sportsology Group to assess Boston’s baseball operations department. The wide-ranging evaluation was something out of “Office Space,” an attempt to cut the fat accumulated while Boston cycled through heads of baseball ops. Ben Cherington took over from Epstein in 2011 and won a World Series in 2013. Two years later, the Red Sox hired Dave Dombrowski over him. Ten months after Dombrowski won a World Series, he was fired and replaced by Bloom, who lasted four years.
Any objective assessment would note that perhaps the problems originated with organizational instability — that the Red Sox had grown bloated, in part at least, because they so often made changes. Regardless of how it came to be, the recommendations included the elimination of jobs across multiple departments. Around 50 people were fired last year, sources said. The professional scouting department was gutted. Some of the positions wound up being filled, but it was clear to those who stayed and went: This was Breslow’s team, and now he would remake it in his own image.
Since the cuts, Breslow’s circle of trust has been small and his reliance on the team’s analytical model heavy, according to sources, leaving some longtime employees embittered. Breslow loyalists fear the consequences of that, with one saying: “There are definitely turncoats internally plotting against Bres.”
The Devers trade only heightened the palace intrigue. Front office officials from other teams mostly lauded the deal for Boston, looking at San Francisco’s willingness to take on the remaining $254 million over the next eight-plus seasons as a win for the Red Sox. But models exist to strip the emotion out of decision-making and use decades of history — and dozens of other inputs about players’ skills gleaned from the cameras that track their every move — to objectively analyze. There is no accounting for a fan base’s adoration of a player.
“Boston absolutely botched this entire Devers situation,” one rival official said, “and somehow it all resulted in them getting to dump what was both an underwater contract and a distraction while also getting a bunch of value back in return.
“It was like, ‘Oops, we overpaid for a decade of our bat-only star, pissed him off publicly, then continued to bungle every subsequent opportunity to get things right. Why don’t you give us a controllable midrotation starter and your first-round pick from last year and help us get out of it?’ “
At the same time, a rival general manager said, “These are the Boston f—ing Red Sox. You don’t trade your stars.”
It’s a fair point. The Red Sox’s competitive-balance-tax payroll topped out in 2019 at $243.7 million. Each of the past two years, they ran a CBT payroll that ranked 12th in the big leagues. The Devers trade puts them comfortably under the CBT threshold. Perhaps they reallocate the money at the trade deadline. Perhaps they don’t.
That the reinvestment is even a question is what really gnaws at Boston fans: They see with abundant clarity that the Red Sox did not learn their lesson from the failed Betts trade. In a market like Boston, financial flexibility is a red herring, playing for the future a false prophet. When the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets and New York Yankees and, yes, even the San Francisco Giants balance today and tomorrow, it has to be about now and the future. The plight of the large-market team in an uncapped sport is that it has zero excuses not to act like one.
Breslow’s investment in his process is wholesale; he believes, regardless of the opinion of outsiders or adversaries within, that he is the right person with the right plan to turn the Red Sox into champions again. He knows that the return for a player with more than a quarter-billion dollars owed will not add up to the quality of the player independent his contract — that the savings are regarded an asset every bit as important as Harrison or Tibbs.
The Miami Marlins made the same compromise when they shipped Giancarlo Stanton and the remaining $290 million on his deal to the Yankees for a pittance of talent — but what Breslow doesn’t understand is that this scenario likens one of the proud franchises in baseball to a bottom-feeder. An organization with Boston’s financial might should be the one acquiring superstars others can’t afford, and waving away that advantage is the truest waste of all, one that opens up the organization to criticism that no amount of championships over the past quarter-century can rid.
That’s why the Devers deal has unleashed such a poisonous recourse. With Boston fans frothing to consume any nugget that reinforces their belief in Breslow’s incompetence, the discussion around the Devers deal has devolved into falsehoods taking root. There are small ones, like Devers being mad at Campbell for volunteering to play first base — he wasn’t mad, multiple sources said — and bigger ones like the report claiming that a person who interviewed with the Red Sox for a baseball operations job went through five rounds of AI-only questions.
The team was concerned enough to release a statement Wednesday night shooting down the report, and three sources familiar with the team’s hiring practices said they use a company called HireVue, which uses AI to ask questions and record video, to screen prospective employees early in the hiring process. Other organizations around baseball use the same software.
Even so, the acknowledgment that it could be true speaks to the state of the Red Sox. The day after the trade, when Breslow and Kennedy held media availability, they acknowledged the flaws in their process — particularly Breslow needing to better communicate with players.
The handling of Devers was an easily avoidable mistake that devolved into a franchise-altering decision. Knowing your personnel is paramount, and whether it’s an unwillingness to meet Betts where he was or dealing Chris Sale to Atlanta only to see him win the National League Cy Young Award last year or moving Devers because of what comes down to a lack of communication, it screams for a self-audit.
Earlier this year, Carl Moesche, a Red Sox area scout in the Pacific Northwest, was logging off a Zoom and said, “Thanks, Bres, you f—ing stiff.” The comment was heard by those in the virtual room. Moesche was fired. His words were catnip to those aggrieved by the Devers trade. And if a low-level employee’s gripe can turn into a rallying cry for paying customers, it might be time for an attempt to eliminate chaos from the franchise’s playbook.
RAFAEL DEVERS IS going to play first base for the San Francisco Giants. Maybe not this weekend, when the Red Sox come to town, but it will happen soon. And as much as those in the anti-Devers camp point to the double standard, one person close to him said there’s another takeaway to glean.
“Sometimes it’s not the message,” he said. “It’s how the message is delivered.”
The message from the Giants was clear: We’re thrilled you’re here, and we see the importance of transparency. Buster Posey, the future Hall of Famer who took over Giants baseball operations over the winter, and manager Bob Melvin walked Devers through the state of the franchise. With Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman signed for six more years, the Giants see Devers as a first baseman and DH. San Francisco’s best prospect, Bryce Eldridge — whom the Red Sox initially targeted in discussions with the Giants before recognizing that the Giants would not budge from their position that he would not be in any Devers deal — plays first and is expected to debut in the major leagues this season. When that time comes, Devers will know.
Which is all he really wanted in the first place. The original sin of opacity spiraled into a mess of the Red Sox’s own making. Devers didn’t exactly acquit himself well, but the onus is on the franchise to create an environment in which players gravitate toward selflessness. Breslow and Kennedy said the lack of “alignment” between the organization and Devers — they used the word a combined 14 times in Wednesday’s news conference — left them with no choice but to trade him. They spoke of building a championship culture. But no player determines that culture single-handedly: It starts with ownership, filters down through management and manifests itself through players bought into ideals and values.
There is no clearer reminder than Devers’ willingness to play first base in San Francisco. The Giants did not care that Devers’ deal might not age well. After being spurned by Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in free agency, they needed a middle-of-the-order bat to win now and gladly went underwater to capture it. Modern organizations are not defined by their models as much as their risk-reward matrices.
Assessing the trade on returns in 2025 alone is short-sighted, although it illustrates the push and pull between now and future. The Red Sox’s future remains bright, and in other regards they’ve made savvy decisions. In Crochet, they targeted a front-line starter, gave up tremendous prospect value and signed him to an over-market extension. In Carlos Narváez, Breslow acquired the Red Sox’s catcher of the present and future — from the Yankees no less — for Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, a soon-to-be-22-year-old right-hander in High-A. While the eight-year, $60 million contract for Campbell has not paid dividends — he was optioned to Triple-A on Thursday after struggling for the past six weeks — evaluators remain bullish that he’ll mature into a middle-of-the-order force.
Until then, though, his demotion just adds a layer to the Devers story. If not for Boston’s belief in Campbell’s ability to succeed at the big league level in 2025, Bregman could have manned second base, Devers third — and he would still be wearing a Red Sox uniform instead of chatting up Barry Bonds behind the Giants’ batting cage. That image stuck in the craw of those pained by the trade. If Devers is going to talk shop with a legend, it should be David Ortiz.
But it isn’t. Ortiz lamented the trade — and Devers’ role in it — as much because Devers could have been, should have been, just like him: a Red Sox hero. Instead, he is a San Francisco Giant, ready to stand in against his former teammates, waggle his bat and do what too many have had to: find his peace somewhere other than Boston.
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Bill Connelly
Oregon and Penn State went to overtime. Alabama and Georgia nearly did. Tennessee went to overtime for a second time in three weeks. Illinois watched a two-score lead vanish against unbeaten USC and then won anyway. Georgia Tech pulled off a magic act to avoid an upset in Wake Forest.
What looked to be a great Friday night was one of the best Friday nights in memory, with Virginia pulling off a stirring overtime upset of Florida State, Arizona State unearthing some more close-game magic and Houston coming back to win in overtime in Corvallis. Indiana survived Iowa City. Cincinnati and Kansas put on a Big 12 track meet. Central Washington scored 91 points!
There aren’t many things in the world better than a huge college football Saturday that lives up to its hype. We had been looking forward to Week 5 since the preseason, and it delivered. So instead of compiling a “My Favorite Games of the Week” list at the bottom of this week’s recap column, we’re going to build the whole column out of My Favorite Games!
With Florida State facing its first road test of the season and TCU and Arizona State facing off in a key Big 12 battle, Friday night looked like it was going to be awesome. It was more than that. Arizona State and TCU went down to the wire, Houston-Oregon State was surprisingly awesome, and the game between YAC kings in Charlottesville exceeded all expectations.
Thanks in part to an early fumble from FSU’s Gavin Sawchuk and an acrobatic red zone interception from UVA’s Ja’son Prevard, Virginia led 14-0 early in the second quarter. When FSU scored on three straight drives, however, this game looked as if it would belong to the “Underdog lands some shots early, then fades” category. We see a lot of those games.
Virginia just kept responding, however. J’Mari Taylor tied the game at 21-21 before halftime, Chandler Morris scored his second rushing touchdown, and Morris threw a go-ahead TD to Xavier Brown with 7:20 left. FSU sent the game to overtime with a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Tommy Castellanos to Randy Pittman Jr. with 36 seconds left; I was surprised FSU didn’t go for two points and the win, but perhaps coach Mike Norvell simply trusted that his offense was more likely to keep scoring. Nope! The Seminoles didn’t net a single first down in two overtime possessions. First, both teams settled for field goals. Then Morris scored again and hit Trell Harris for the 2-point conversion. Prevard picked off Castellanos’ desperation heave, and one of the most rapid field-stormings you’ll ever see followed.
0:49
Fans rush the field after UVA upsets No. 8 FSU
Florida State is unable to convert on fourth down in double overtime against Virginia, and fans storm the field.
I’m not going to lie: That was both exhilarating and terrifying to watch. But it had been quite a while since Cavaliers fans got to celebrate such a win — their last home victory over a top-10 team was in 2005. That win was also against Florida State. And in a fun nod to history, the Cavaliers had also scored one of the great weeknight upsets of all time in 1995 against, yes, Florida State again. Thirty years later, they did it again.
The win was big because every fan base deserves moments like this. It was also big because it upended the ACC title race a bit. We head into October with Miami at the top of the pecking order, but lots of teams pretty close behind.
Current ACC title odds, per SP+
1. Miami 24.2%
2. Louisville 20.4%
3. Georgia Tech 10.3%
4. Virginia 10.2%
5. Duke 9.6%
6. Florida State 6.7%
7. SMU 5.1%
The winner of this coming Saturday’s Virginia-Louisville game is going to be awfully well-positioned to nab one of the slots in the ACC championship game. (Of course, knowing this conference’s history, we’ve got 26 more plot twists to go between now and then.)
There were six Big Ten games Saturday, and only one was decided before the final two minutes. I felt smart for suggesting in Friday’s preview that Washington might make Ohio State sweat for a while, but the Huskies’ challenge lasted only about 29 minutes in a 24-6 loss. Otherwise, however, every game was dynamite.
That included the night’s big headliner in Happy Valley, though it certainly took its time reaching a boil. In fact early in the fourth quarter it looked as if this would end up a blowout. After 47:35, Oregon led 17-3, having outgained Penn State by a 352-109 margin. (Yards per play to that point: 5.9 to 2.9.)
Out of nowhere, however, Drew Allar led two pristine touchdown drives, one quick and one languid; a lovely touchdown lob to Devonte Ross made it 17-10 Ducks, and a gorgeously designed pitch to Ross tied the game with 30 seconds left.
Penn State needed only three plays to score in overtime, and Oregon had to gut out a response, converting a fourth-and-1 and then scoring on a cluttered shovel pass up the middle to Jamari Johnson. Penn State still looked like the steadier team heading into the second OT, but two plays later, the game was over. Dante Moore connected with Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard score, and Dillon Thieneman appeared out of nowhere to pick off an Allar sideline pass. That was that.
Oregon is the real deal. The Ducks are No. 1 in SP+ and are getting what they need out of virtually every new and former transfer they’ve had to call upon, from Moore and Bryant, to much of the offensive line, to guys such as Thieneman on defense. And their two best offensive players Saturday night might have been freshmen: running back Dierre Hill Jr. (94 yards from scrimmage) and receiver Dakorien Moore (seven catches for 89 yards). Dante Moore aced the biggest test of his collegiate career, and led by head coach Dan Lanning, who seems to adore coaching in games such as this, the Ducks have won 19 of their past 20 games.
The narrative following this one, of course, focused mostly on the losing team. I tend to hate narratives; they’re almost always lazy and oversimplified, and one of the major reasons I’ve pursued analytics as much as I have over my writing career is that I like shutting narratives down. That goes especially for the “can’t win the big one” trope. Tom Osborne couldn’t win the big one, nor could Bobby Bowden or Mack Brown. They couldn’t, and then they did. James Franklin wears the biggest, brightest “Can’t win the big one!” sign in the sport at the moment, and guess what: Of the 136 programs in FBS, at least 125 of them would trade places with Franklin’s Penn State in a heartbeat. Franklin has been undeniably awesome at his job for quite a while. Almost no team in the sport has proven to be more upset-proof. That the Nittany Lions lose only to awesome teams — and often by small margins — is a sign that they’re an awesome team.
However …
Many of Penn State’s recent losses to awesome teams have followed a very familiar script full of droughts, a lack of offensive ambition and a complete lack of faith in the quarterback. Andy Kotelnicki’s fourth-quarter playcalling was almost note-perfect — he has proven his playcalling chops for quite a while now — but it came after two straight quarters of ineffective nibbling. In last year’s CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame, Penn State scored one TD in its first six drives, then carved down the field beautifully for two late touchdowns. In last year’s Big Ten championship game, the Nittany Lions scored one TD in their first four drives and fell behind 28-10 before finding a rhythm and surging back (only to fall short).
It’s great to hold something in reserve for when you need it, and that’s a clear part of the Penn State approach in big games. But it’s producing awfully similar results, and it’s impossible not to notice that in his seven losses as a starter, Allar has averaged just 171 passing yards per game with a 50% completion rate and a 61.1 Total QBR. (It’s also not hard to notice that in the past two games in which he had a chance to win the game on Penn State’s final drive, he threw almost immediate interceptions.)
If someone says someone “can’t win the big one,” my natural instinct is to roll my eyes and assume the tables will turn pretty soon. But it’s hard to maintain that faith, in either Allar or Penn State, at the moment, not when it feels as if we’re watching reruns.
I feel like the Big 12 should sue the SEC for copyright infringement. An utterly nutty conference title race, loaded with close games and unexpected plot twists, is supposed to be the Big 12’s domain. But with Texas Tech’s early 2025 star turn and high-quality, unbeaten starts for Iowa State and BYU, the Big 12 race is looking pretty straight forward at the moment. Following these two huge Saturday games, however, the SEC’s title race leaves September in a place of glorious disarray.
SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 16.3%
Missouri 12.9%
Oklahoma 11.1%
Alabama 11.1%
Vanderbilt 9.7%
Texas 8.5%
Tennessee 7.2%
Texas A&M 6.2%
Georgia 5.2%
LSU 5.2%
To put that another way, the six above teams that have won a national title in the past 25 years (Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia and LSU) have a combined 48.3% chance of winning the SEC. The other four teams above — which have combined for a single outright conference title in the past 50 years (Texas A&M’s 1998 Big 12 crown) — are at 45.1%.
(Other teams have tiny chances that bring the total to 100%. And no, Oklahoma’s odds aren’t affected by quarterback John Mateer‘s recent hand injury.)
We basically have a 50-50 shot at a team enjoying its first conference title in a very long time.
Brilliant early play from Missouri and Vanderbilt has certainly juiced these odds in their favor a bit, and after last year’s No. 2 finish in SP+, we shouldn’t be all that surprised Ole Miss has a puncher’s shot at a conference crown. But I literally laughed out loud when I saw the list above. The SEC is in an incredibly strange place at the moment, and I’m here for it.
Saturday’s Alabama and Ole Miss wins certainly added to the chaotic vibe, and both came down to clutch late-down conversions. First, Ole Miss outgained LSU by a 480-254 margin and led by 10 at the half and 11 early in the fourth quarter. But the Rebels settled for a field goal in the first quarter and lost a fumble in the end zone in the second, allowing LSU to hang around, and Harlem Berry‘s touchdown with 5:04 left brought the Tigers within five points. When Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss foolishly allowed himself to get pushed out of bounds on a third-down rush, stopping the clock with 1:47 left and bringing up a fourth down, it wasn’t hard to see the Tigers stealing this one. But Chambliss found Dae’Quan Wright for a picture-perfect 20-yard gain on fourth-and-3, and Ole Miss kneeled out the win.
On Saturday evening in Athens, Alabama did what it did early against Georgia last season but changed the script for how things played out late. The Crimson Tide scored on four of their five first-half possessions, racking up 262 yards and a 24-14 halftime lead. Ty Simpson was 11-for-16 for 132 yards, Bama was 5-for-8 on third downs (Georgia was 0-for-3), and everything was working.
And then, in the second half, a rock fight broke out. Bama almost seemed Penn State-esque, going ultra-conservative and saving any actually good offensive plays for when Georgia finally took the lead. Only, it never happened. The Dawgs got to within three points on the first drive of the third quarter, but they punted twice and failed on a fourth-and-1 from the Bama 8 with 13:20 left in the fourth quarter when LT Overton and Deontae Lawson stormed the backfield on a hurry-up snap and knocked Cash Jones off-balance for a 3-yard loss. Georgia never got another shot. Thanks to a 7-yard pass from Simpson to Jam Miller on third-and-5 with 1:51 left, Bama was also able to kneel out the win.
By the way, if you’re a fan of the transitive property, I do have to point out that Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, which beat NC State, which beat Virginia, which beat Florida State, which beat Alabama, which beat Georgia. ODU for the CFP???
Tennessee let a potential upset of Georgia slip through its fingers two weeks ago and is still looking ahead at a schedule that includes trips to Alabama and Florida and visits from Oklahoma and surging Vanderbilt. This was not the time to suffer an upset against an upstart — we know from Ole Miss’ and Alabama’s 2024 experiences that untimely upset losses will doom you awfully quickly — but Mississippi State sure looked like it was going to finish the job early Saturday evening. Despite two defensive touchdowns for the Vols (and a yards-per-play advantage of 6.5 to 4.4 for UT), MSU took the lead on four separate occasions and held a 34-27 advantage midway through the fourth quarter with Tennessee forcing a fourth-and-4. But Joey Aguilar found star receiver Chris Brazzell II for a first down, and Aguilar took in a touchdown on the first play after the two-minute timeout.
Tennessee’s DeSean Bishop scored on the first play of overtime, then Arion Carter broke up a fourth-down pass from Blake Shapen to Anthony Evans III.
If the loose playoff goal for an SEC team is to reach 10-2, this comeback saved Tennessee’s bacon. The Vols still have a 40% chance of reaching 10-2 or better. That number would have been about 10% with a loss here.
Arizona State has won nine straight Big 12 games going back to last season, and four of them were decided by five or fewer points. The last two were decided by 27-24 scores.
This Friday night result seemed rather unlikely. TCU, unbeaten and confident, dominated on the way to a 17-0 lead late in the first half, and after the Sun Devils charged back to tie, Josh Hoover‘s 1-yard touchdown gave the Horned Frogs another lead that they held with two minutes left. But a pair of defensive penalties and a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson tied the game. And then Prince Dorbah made maybe the best play of the entire weekend.
It’s DORBAH ‼️@prince_dorbah pic.twitter.com/fMN1TulfJt
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) September 27, 2025
Dorbah’s strip sack set up a go-ahead field goal for Jesus Gomez, and Martell Hughes‘ interception 25 seconds later clinched the win.
It was fair to assume that, with such an experienced squad, Illinois was going to respond with physicality and quality after last week’s humiliating loss to Indiana. The Illini ended up needing an extra reserve of resilience too.
They led 31-17 with 10 minutes left, but two Makai Lemon touchdowns (and a 2-point conversion from Lemon), combined with an Illinois fumble deep in Trojan territory, gave USC a sudden 32-31 lead with 1:55 remaining. With help from a pass interference penalty, though, Illinois was able to drive to the USC 24 in the closing seconds, and David Olano‘s 41-yard field goal saved the day.
After jumping out to a 14-0 lead against NC State but falling 34-24, Wake Forest came even closer to an upset Saturday. The Demon Deacons led 20-3 early in the second half and had a chance to close out a 23-20 upset with less than two minutes left. But Robby Ashford, thinking Tech had jumped offside on a third-and-5 and he had a free play, threw an incomplete deep ball, stopping the clock. No flag was thrown — the Tech defender was in the process of jumping back behind the line of scrimmage when the ball was snapped and came awfully close — and Wake was forced to punt. With the extra seconds, Tech drove for a field goal and picked off a 2-point pass in overtime to somehow keep its unbeaten record intact.
In a game neither team led by more than 7 points, Central Connecticut looked to have forced overtime with a short Michael Trovarelli touchdown with 58 seconds left. But unfortunately for the Blue Devils, they, um, forgot to cover Ky’Dric Fisher.
THE GAME WINNING TOUCHDOWN CATCH BY KY’DRIC FISHER pic.twitter.com/QhMeLe858F
— Dartmouth Football (@DartmouthFTBL) September 27, 2025
I can’t really say Kansas did a ton wrong here — the Jayhawks got a huge day from Jalon Daniels (445 passing yards and four TDs) and Emmanuel Henderson (214 receiving yards and two of those scores) and basically split third downs with the Bearcats and committed far fewer penalties. But Cincy’s Brendan Sorsby completed passes to nine different receivers and threw two touchdown passes to Cyrus Allen.
When Levi Wentz gave KU its first lead in nearly 55 minutes with a short touchdown reception with 1:45 left, the Jayhawks left too much time on the clock. Sorsby completed a fourth-and-10 pass to Noah Jennings, and Tawee Walker plunged in with the game-winning points with 29 seconds on the clock.
The longer the road trip, the better the Cal result. The Golden Bears beat Auburn, Wake Forest and Pitt on the road last season, and despite a dreadful start in Chestnut Hill — Boston College led 14-0 after just eight minutes — they produced a win in their longest ACC road trip yet. Kendrick Raphael gave Cal its first lead with 13:47 left, but Turbo Richard‘s 71-yard turbo boost made it 24-21 BC. After a fourth-down pass interference call bought Cal time, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hit Mason Mini down the left sideline for a 51-yard score.
0:25
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throws 51-yard touchdown pass pass to Mason Mini
BC drove the length of the field, but Luke Ferrelli stepped in front of a Dylan Lonergan pass and the Golden Bears prevailed.
Oregon State can’t catch a break. After watching a late lead against Fresno State disappear earlier in the season, the winless Beavers played their best game of the season and led 24-10 with six minutes left. But Conner Weigman threw touchdown passes to Stephon Johnson and Tanner Koziol, and when a late Maalik Murphy-to-Trent Walker completion set up a shot at a game-winning field goal for OSU, basically the entire Cougar lineup broke into the backfield to block it.
0:31
Houston blocks Oregon State’s winning FG attempt to force OT
Multiple Houston defenders break through to block Cameron Smith’s winning field goal attempt for Oregon State.
It was Houston’s second blocked field goal of the night, and it made the ending feel preordained. In overtime, Brandon Mack and Zelmar Vedder stuffed OSU’s Cornell Hatcher Jr. on fourth-and-1, then Ethan Sanchez nailed the 24-yarder to keep Houston unbeaten.
Indiana passed yet another test, taking on upset-minded Iowa in Iowa City and misfiring for much of the middle of the game. Trailing 13-10 with less than 10 minutes left, the Hoosiers got a 44-yard field goal from Nico Radicic and a 49-yard catch-and-go from Elijah Sarratt to take the lead. This being an Iowa game, a late safety was legally required, but Indiana held on.
Last week, San Diego trailed Princeton 35-14 in the second quarter before storming back to win, 42-35. The Toreros decided the only way to follow that up was to spot St. Thomas a 27-10 lead midway through the third quarter. After a 54-yard touchdown pass from Dom Nankil to Cole Monarch cut the Tommies’ lead to 27-24, two fourth-quarter field goals from Emiliano Salazar — including a 25-yarder with two seconds left — sealed another wild comeback.
15. Div. II: No. 8 California (Pa.) 45, No. 4 Slippery Rock 38
As with FBS, Division II’s biggest game of the week went down to the wire. In front of 7,670 in Slippery Rock, Cal scored five touchdowns in 13 minutes to take a shocking 35-14 lead, but the Rock slowly reeled the Vulcans in. Kevin Roberts’ early-fourth-quarter field goal gave Slippery Rock a 38-35 lead, but Cal quickly retied the game, then took the win with Kendrick Agenor’s 14-yard touchdown run with 60 seconds left.
It was almost overshadowed by the two other wild Saturday afternoon SEC games, but A&M almost let one slip through its grasp.
The Aggies erased the Auburn defense and outgained the Tigers, 414-177, but their last six scoring chances resulted in five field goal attempts (two missed) and an interception that Xavier Atkins returned 73 yards to set up a short score. Somehow Auburn got the ball with a chance to win at the end, but poor Jackson Arnold got crushed by Dayon Hayes on fourth down — A&M’s fifth sack of the day and the 15th time Arnold has been sacked in two weeks — and the Aggies survived.
San José State did almost everything right. The Spartans methodically built a 12-point fourth-quarter lead as their in-game win probability crept over 90%. But the Cardinal drove 80 yards in the final three minutes, thanks in part to a 34-yard Caden High reception on fourth-and-10, and Sedrick Irvin‘s short touchdown gave them the lead with 19 seconds left. SJSU nearly drove into field goal range, but Leland Smith couldn’t hold onto a pass over the middle, and the Spartans came up short.
18. Div. III: Alma 29, No. 15 Hope 26
19. Div. III: Maryville 34, Pikeville 30
Big week for Scots! Both the Alma Scots and Maryville Scots came up with late heroics. In front of 3,206 in Holland, Michigan, Alma took down no-longer-unbeaten Hope by bolting to an early 14-0 lead and holding on for dear life. Hope tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation but had to settle for a field goal in the first overtime. Facing fourth-and-goal from the 2, Alma went for the win and got it thanks to a touchdown pass from Carter St. John to Miles Haggart.
About 600 miles south in Maryville, Tennessee, Maryville looked as if it would cruise over NAIA’s Pikeville in front of 5,576. The Scots led 27-10 late in the first half, but a 20-0 run put the visitors on top. No worries! Maryville drove 86 yards in 44 seconds, and Bryson Rollins found Jalen McCullough with 35 seconds left to save the day.
For the second straight week, Rutgers enticed a rock-fight connoisseur into a track meet of sorts — Iowa last week, Minnesota this week — but couldn’t actually win it. A 4-yard Drake Lindsay-to-Javon Tracy touchdown gave the Gophers the lead with 3:19 left, but Rutgers worked the ball into field goal range until a devastating, 15-yard Rushawn Lawrence sack of Athan Kaliakmanis forced Dane Pizzaro to attempt a 56-yarder. He missed.
Hell yeah, Hokies. After starting 2025 so dismally that head coach Brent Pry was fired after just three games, Tech has won two straight. Terion Stewart enjoyed a breakout performance with 174 rushing yards, Kyron Drones threw two touchdown passes and Christian Ellis broke up a fourth-and-1 pass with 42 seconds left to clinch the win.
22. NAIA: No. 15 Dordt 21, No. 14 Northwestern (Iowa) 20
Dordt entered Week 5 as NAIA’s No. 1 team, per SP+, and the Defenders rallied to score a big road win over the 2022 national champs. After trailing 17-0 late in the second quarter, they took their first lead with just 13 seconds left, when Connor Dodd capped a 93-yard drive with a 4-yard TD catch.
This was easily UCLA’s best chance at avoiding a winless 2025 season, but as with their loss to UNLV, they spotted their hosts a big early lead and couldn’t quite catch up. They cut a 17-0 deficit to 17-14 with six minutes left, but two last-ditch drives went nowhere.
Pitt made this one as messy and chaotic as Pat Narduzzi could have hoped and bolted to a 17-0 first-quarter lead, but the Panthers couldn’t hold on. Louisville remained unbeaten by pitching a second-half shutout; the Cardinals took their first lead with 7:03 remaining, and their third interception of the day, with four seconds left, closed things out.
25. Div. II: No. 17 Central Washington 91, Western New Mexico 31
I had to end this list with one of the most confounding box scores I’ve ever seen.
Total yards: CWU 499, WNMU 468
First downs: WNMU 24, CWU 20
Red zone trips: CWU 6, WNMU 4
Touchdowns: CWU 13, WNMU 4
What??
CWU played an almost perfect first quarter, gaining 253 yards in 14 snaps and going up 35-0. The Wildcats then proceeded to score touchdowns on a kickoff return, another kickoff return two minutes later and a third-quarter pick-six. And because of turnovers and special teams, they had touchdown drives of 5, 40, 44 and 47 yards. And they managed to score nearly 100 points with less than 500 yards. College football is only ever allowed to make so much sense.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (26-for-34 passing for 321 yards, 5 TDs and an INT, plus 83 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Utah State).
2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (20-for-26 passing for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 36 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against USC).
3. CJ Carr, Notre Dame (22-for-30 passing for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns against Arkansas).
4. Dante Moore, Oregon (29-for-39 passing for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 35 non-sack rushing yards against Penn State).
5. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24-for-38 passing for 276 yards and a touchdown, plus a rushing touchdown against Georgia).
6. Prince Dorbah, Arizona State (4 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery against TCU).
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (23-for-39 passing for 314 yards, a TD and an INT, plus 71 non-sack rushing yards against LSU).
8. Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati (29-for-43 passing for 388 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards against Kansas).
9. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (19-for-28 passing for 445 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 58 non-sack rushing yards against Cincinnati).
10. Xavier Atkins, Auburn (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, a sack, a forced fumble and a 73-yard interception return against Texas A&M).
I wrote about awesome running backs last week, but Week 5 belonged to quarterbacks. CJ Carr enjoyed by far the best performance of his career, and the winners of the two huge night games, Bama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore, both shined. But I gave the top two spots to a couple of veteran overachievers. Luke Altmyer completed four passes of 25-plus yards, all in the second half, and produced a 97.5 Total QBR rating. Diego Pavia, meanwhile, remains Diego Pavia: absurdly efficient via run and pass. He produced 404 total yards and six touchdowns, and if he wasn’t already in the Heisman discussion, he should be now.
Honorable mention:
• Micah Alejado, Hawaii (35-for-47 passing for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns against Air Force).
• Raleek Brown, Arizona State (21 carries for 134 yards, plus 50 receiving yards against TCU).
• Greg Desrosiers Jr., Memphis (19 carries for 204 yards and 3 touchdowns against FAU).
• Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (16 carries for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 78 receiving yards and a touchdown against South Alabama).
• Emmanuel Henderson, Kansas (5 catches for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cincinnati).
• Trent Hendrick, JMU (11 tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against Georgia Southern).
• Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (24-for-35 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Oklahoma State)
• Nate Sheppard, Duke (15 carries for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 33 receiving yards against Syracuse).
• Liam Szarka, Air Force (10-for-12 passing for 278 yards, 3 TDs and an INT, plus 152 non-sack rushing yards against Hawaii).
Through five weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (21 points)
2T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15 points)
2T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15 points)
4. Jayden Maiava, USC (12 points)
5T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10 points)
5T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10 points)
5T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10 points)
5T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10 points)
9T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (nine points)
9T. Rocco Becht, Iowa State (nine points)
9T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (nine points)
9T. Vicari Swain, South Carolina (nine points)
9T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (nine points)
We’re seeing the beginnings of a sync-up between the points race and the betting odds. Obviously, Taylen Green (tied for second in the points race) isn’t a serious Heisman candidate, but points leader Ty Simpson is up to No. 3 in the betting odds, and Mendoza, Pavia, Stockton and Chambliss are in the top 10 of both the points and the odds. Still, it’s incredible how little has been settled as we approach the midway point of the season.
Arkansas fired Sam Pittman on Sunday, parting ways with the popular and folksy coach who couldn’t get the Razorbacks into the upper echelon of the SEC with a middling overall record of 32-34.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, a former head coach at Arkansas before he left in scandal, was appointed interim head coach for the remainder of the season.
“I want to thank coach Pittman for his service and dedication to the University of Arkansas throughout his time as head coach,” athletic director Hunter Yurachek said in a statement. “From Day 1, you could tell how much this opportunity meant to him. At this time, however, I feel a change is necessary to put our student-athletes and program in the best position to be successful. The goal for our football program is to be highly competitive within the Southeastern Conference and compete for a national championship.”
Because Pittman’s overall record since 2021 was above .500 (29-27), per his contract Arkansas owes him a buyout of nearly $9.8 million.
Pittman was the fourth power conference coach fired this season — all in the final two weeks of September — following Brent Pry at Virginia Tech, DeShaun Foster at UCLA and Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State.
The move at Arkansas came one day after the Razorbacks fell to 2-3 with a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame. The Hogs have this week off before a game at Tennessee on Oct. 11.
Pittman, 63, was named the Razorbacks’ 34th head coach in December 2019.
“As we move forward in the process of finding our next head coach, I am certain we will be able to provide the necessary resources to our staff and team to reach our goals. We will begin a national search for our next head coach immediately and that search will include Coach Petrino, who has expressed his desire to be a candidate for the full-time job,” Yurachek said.
Petrino, 64, was rehired by Arkansas in November 2023 after serving in a number of jobs. In four years leading the Razorbacks, Petrino went 34-17, including consecutive double-digit-victory seasons in 2010 and 2011.
He had the Razorbacks rolling when in April 2012 he was involved in a single-vehicle motorcycle crash that left him with four broken ribs. At first, he said he was riding alone, but a police report revealed a woman was riding with him. The woman turned out to be a former Arkansas athlete who was in a romantic relationship with the married Petrino. The coach had given her a job in the football program and a $20,000 gift.
He was fired by then-athletic director Jeff Long for misleading his bosses about what happened with the accident and his relationship with the football staffer.
ESPN’s Pete Thamel and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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