Canadian study finds that 33% of commercial trucks are ready to electrify – today
A new study by the Pembina Institute shows that a third of the commercial trucks and vans on Toronto’s roads are ready to electrify today – while nearly half could be electrified by 2030.
A new analysis by the Pembina Institute titled Electrifying Fleet Trucks: A case study estimating potential in the GTHA finds that as many as a third of trucks in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) could go electric today, rising to more than half by early 2030s — insulating businesses from rising fuel costs and reducing harmful air pollution that drives up health care costs. What’s more, the report found that battery range and charging access are less of a barrier than expected.
“Real-world travel data from Canadian trucks, collected over summer and winter months, shows that electrification is possible today,” says Chandan Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst at the Pembina Institute. “In fact, with a staggered approach, the GTHA — home to over half the province’s vehicle stock — could reach 50% sales for lighter trucks by 2030, helping offset lower adoption rates for heavier trucks.”
So, what’s holding back electric vehicle adoption? According to the study’s authors, it’s a matter of public policy. But without the right policies in place, the study argues, businesses face unnecessary hurdles in making the switch.
“Our analysis shows that Ontario has a clear path to accelerating the transition to zero-emission trucks — unlocking economic opportunities, improving public health and positioning itself as a leader in clean transportation,” says Adam Thorn, Transportation Director at the Pembina Institute. “With the right policies in place, businesses can reap the benefits of lower costs while the province strengthens its manufacturing sector and energy security.”
We already knew this
If all of this sounds a bit familiar, it’s probably because you’ve heard this before. The California Air Resource Board (CARB) came to very similar conclusions in their report, titled, Determining energy use patterns and battery charging infrastructure for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles and off-road equipment.
CARB staff believe that several heavy-duty ZE vocational trucks are ready to be electrified because of their low daily mileage demands (<100 mi). Long-haul Class 8 trucks continue to be a challenge to fully electrify because of the long operation range (300+ mi) and on-demand charging need.
In fact, the California study came to almost the exact conclusion that the Toronto study did when examining the heavy-duty Class 7 and 8 EV market. Which is to say: it’s not a question of capability, but a question of availability.
“The availability of on-road heavy-duty ZE trucks has increased in recent years,” reads the report. “But their numbers remain significantly lower than their diesel and natural gas counterparts. As of 2022, an estimated 2,300 on-road ZE medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are operating in California, with the vast majority located in South Coast Air Bassin (Figure 1). On-road heavy-duty ZE transit buses account for the majority of all on-road heavy-duty ZEVs in California, but, as of 2023, sales of ZE heavy-duty trucks and medium-duty step vans have outpaced other vocations, indicating that these vehicles will be more prevalent in fleets in the near future.”
That’s proven to be true, with sales of Class 2 vans and other medium-duty EVs rapidly outpacing the general public’s adoption of EVs as new options became available in 2024, with no signs of slowing down in 2025 (at least, where the right policies are in place).
Here are some of the key takeaways from the Pembina Institute study from the Toronto truck market. Obviously, it won’t directly translate to every city’s truck fleet – but take a look at Toronto’s demographics and some of the key variables involved (truck size, average loads, miles driven, etc.) and you might be surprised at how similar your city and your fleet might be.
- Businesses can save up to 40% of fuel and maintenance costs by switching to electric trucks.
- Electric trucks eliminate tailpipe emissions, cutting harmful air pollution and improve public health.
- Traffic related air pollution in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area leads to 700 premature deaths and 2,800 hospitalizations every year, costing health care system $4.6 billion annually.
- Ontario’s Driving Prosperity plan highlights the need for increased electrification, while the City of Toronto is targeting 30% of all registered vehicles to be electric by 2030.
- Governments worldwide are embracing electrification, setting ambitious sales targets for zero-emission vans and trucks.
- By 2030, jurisdictions like Europe, China, California, British Columbia and Quebec aim for about 35% of new truck sales to be zero-emission, ramping up to nearly 100% by 2040.
SOURCES: CARB, Pembina Institute, via Electric Autonomy; featured image by PACCAR.
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Environment
Trump is wielding the power of the state to back critical mineral companies. These are the possible next targets
The Trump administration needs to strike multiple deals with U.S. miners to secure the nation’s supply chain against China, said Mark Chalmers, CEO of Energy Fuels, a miner focused on uranium and rare earth minerals.
The Pentagon decision to take an equity stake in MP Materials, the largest U.S. rare earth miner, in July and support the company with a price floor surprised many in the industry, Chalmers told CNBC.
But it was a necessary step that the White House should now follow with more deals to diversify the U.S. supply chain and reduce the risk that would come with backing a single national champion, the CEO said.
“One company doesn’t fix it,” Chalmers said of the MP Materials deal. “You have to have multiple deals to ensure that you don’t just have the company risk, because all companies aren’t going to deliver.”
The White House is “not ruling out other deals with equity stakes or price floors as we did with MP Materials, but that doesn’t mean every initiative we take would be in the shape of the MP deal,” a Trump administration official told CNBC.
Rare earths are key inputs in weapons platforms such as the F-35 warplane as well as consumer products like electric vehicles and smartphones. The U.S. is almost entirely dependent on China, which supplied 70% of rare earth imports in 2023, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
China has manipulated the market by suppressing prices to drive Western competition from the market, said Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, a critical mineral market research firm. The MP deal demonstrated that the U.S. is willing to break with free market ideals and push back against China by mimicking its model of strategic capitalism when necessary, Castilloux said.
“We’ve seen just how disadvantaged the free market view is versus a long term, industrial policy driven market — and something needed to give,” Castilloux, an expert on critical minerals, told CNBC.
Possible rare earth targets
Energy Fuels’ stock has surged nearly 200% since the MP deal on July 10, as investors speculate that it could be a deal target for the Trump administration. Critical mineral miner NioCorp Developments is also up almost 200%, Ramaco Resources has gained 140%, and USA Rare Earth is up more than 70%.
MP Materials will likely need more heavy rare earths as it develops a second facility to make magnets under the Defense Department deal, Castilloux said. Heavy rare earths are needed to produce magnets that can withstand high temperatures in EV motors and defense industry applications, he said.
Headquartered in Denver, Energy Fuels is the largest uranium miner in the U.S. and is forming a rare earth operation through mines it has acquired around the world. Its operation will produce heavy rare earths, Chalmers said.
Energy Fuels is focused on “providing a product that is attractive to the U.S government” and complements the strengths of MP Materials, the CEO said.
“The government cannot bet on one horse — it just doesn’t make sense,” Chalmers said. “We spend a lot of time in D.C. making sure they understand the merits of our strategy,” he said.
Trump eyes lithium
Other critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and graphite are ripe for federal investment to smooth out volatile price fluctuations that undermine U.S. miners, said Rich Nolan, CEO of the National Mining Association. Those minerals are all used in batteries, among other applications.
The Trump administration has proposed an equity stake in Lithium Americas, as the Canadian company renegotiates the terms of a $2.2 billion loan from the Department of Energy for its Thacker Pass mine in northern Nevada. The mine is expected to become one of the largest sources of lithium in North America, with the first phase of the project scheduled to start operations in late 2027.
Lithium Americas stock surged more than 90% this week on news of the potential government stake.
Albemarle CEO Kent Masters told CNBC that something “in the ballpark” of the MP deal could apply to the lithium sector. Albemarle, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, is one of the largest lithium producers in the world.
“What you want to do is move the market such that private industry can invest behind it,” Masters told CNBC in July, pointing to Apple‘s offtake agreement with MP just days after the Defense Department deal.
Miners seek price floors
While it might take a government equity stake to move the market in some cases, the price floor established by the Pentagon in the MP deal is the “critical part” that allows private industry to invest and build out the supply chain, Masters said.
Price support from the federal government “sends a true market signal that these investments are long term, that they are here to stay,” the National Mining Association’s Nolan said.
Under the MP deal, the Pentagon set a price floor of $110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium oxide, or NdPr, a key input in rare-earth magnets. The government pays MP the difference when the market price is below $110 but in turn takes 30% of the upside when the price is above $110.
The price of NdPr surged 40% in the wake of the MP deal, Castilloux said.
“It serves as a blueprint for any market where suppressed pricing is slanting the competitive playing field against the U.S. and its allies,” the analyst said of the price floor. The deal signals that “there is a way to break free of China’s artificially suppressed pricing,” he said.
This month, we’ve been running a sidebar survey about what losing the federal home solar tax credit means for Electrek readers and how it impacts their solar power plans. After receiving nearly two thousand responses, here’s what you told us.
With the 30% federal home solar tax credit set to expire at the end of this year, homeowners everywhere are showing mixed reactions. And, in the case of nearly 30% of our readers, a sense of urgency. Nearly four in ten (38.7%) of our solar survey responders said that they were “deeply concerned” about the credit ending, and moving up plans to install a home solar system before the credit is gone.
That response suggests the industry could see a meaningful surge of demand in the final quarter of the year as households look to lock in tax benefits while they still can.
Another 19.2% said they were aware of the credit, but it wasn’t a major factor in their solar plans one way or the other (if you’re curious, I fall into this second category).
Meanwhile, 16.4% of Electrek survey respondents admitted they had no idea there even was a 30% federal solar credit. That fact, while frustrating, serves to highlight the need for better public awareness around both clean energy incentives, and the potential benefits to adding solar power to your home.
Interesting, but does it matter?
That said, it’s important to consider the source here. Electrek readers tend to be more educated in general than the American public at large to begin with (check out our Partner Program page for some of that demographic data), and you’re certainly more educated and informed about things like EVs, home battery backups, and – of course – solar power.
The general public? The people who don’t read Electrek, don’t follow the cimate tech blogs, and generally have no idea what’s going on in the world of clean energy incentives? Getting rid of a tax credit they don’t even know exists may not move the market one way or the other. And, frankly, I don’t think it will.
What do you guys think? Is the march towards more universal home solar system deployment already too far along to stop, or do you think eliminating the tax incentive will turn off enough people to do the industry in for good? Head to the comments and let us know.
Original content from Electrek, featured image via UCF.
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In a record-setting deal worth billions, Chinese heavy equipment manufacturer XCMG has agreed to deliver more than 200 of its 240-tonne electric haul trucks to Australian mining giants Fortescue in one of the biggest moves yet to decarbonize mining.
From pioneering its “world’s first” best-practice model for smart mining at China Huaneng’s Yimin Mine and winning the 2025 Decarbonizing Mining Award to ranking among the world’s top four open-pit heavy equipment makers, XCMG is rapidly building a reputation for building high-quality electric equipment options that can do all the work without any of the emissions.
Earlier this week, XCMG joined Fortescue, one of the world’s largest iron ore producers, at a grand signing ceremony in Beijing for a strategic cooperation agreement on green mining equipment solutions. Under the terms of the new deal, XCMG will deliver up to 200 of its massive, 240T battery-electric haul trucks to Fortescue, beating a similar deal posted last year and marking China’s largest-ever export order for green mining machinery.
It’s also one of the largest-ever EV sales, period.
Big deal
Fortescue believes the deal isn’t just significant for its size and scope, but for building new global bridges in the quest for full decarbonization.
“The world once benefited from open trade and cooperation – now it is divided,” explains Fortescue Executive Chairman and Founder, Dr. Andrew Forrest. “Fortescue is showing that industry can help glue back that multilateral spirit. Not through rhetoric, but through practical alliances that prove heavy industry can follow a new path – one where profits rise as emissions fall.”
“China is scaling and manufacturing green technologies at unprecedented speed,” adds Forrest. “and “Our partnerships give Fortescue access to that capability.”
As for the trucks themselves, the new XCMG 240T electric haul trucks are absolute giants, built to handle payloads over 500,000 lbs., with a gross vehicle weight rating somewhat north of 380 (!) tonnes (that’s almost 420 Imperial tons, to you and me).
There’s enough power on tap from the big haul trucks’ 1,900 kW (2,550 hp) electric drive system to climb 17% grades and hit speeds up to 56 km/h (35 mph). That’s enough to make XCMG’s 240T one of the most powerful and capable EVs on the planet, slashing emissions without sacrificing hauling performance.
With Fortescue already saving hundreds of millions in fuel costs, this deal – big as it – is going to put an absolutely massive dent in global diesel demand.
SOURCES: Fortescue, Yahoo! Finance.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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