Free agency and draft plans for Oilers, Panthers, every other eliminated team
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2024-25 NHL regular season is over and the playoffs are underway..
This is the place where we look ahead to the offseason for all the teams eliminated from contention: Who will those teams try to add via free agency, trades and the draft? How much better will the team be in 2025-26?
Read on for a look at what went wrong for each eliminated team, along with a breakdown of the biggest keys this offseason and realistic expectations for next season. Note that more teams will be added to this story as they are eliminated.
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton, and Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space per PuckPedia. Dates listed with each team are when the entry was published. Teams are listed alphabetically by publication date.
Jump to a team:
ANA | BOS | BUF | CGY
CAR | CHI | COL | CBJ
DAL | DET | EDM| FLA | LA
MIN | MTL | NJ | NSH | NYI
NYR | OTT | PHI | PIT
SJ | SEA | STL | TB
TOR | UTA | VAN | VGK
WSH | WPG
Playoff teams
Projected cap space: $11.96 million
2025 draft picks: 3rd (STL), 6th, 7th
What went right? Adjustments, and knowing when to make them, became the storyline for the Oilers in their return to a consecutive Stanley Cup Final. They made adjustments to help come back from a 2-0 series hole in the first round to beat the Los Angeles Kings for a fourth consecutive year.
What they did against the Kings established a foundation on which they had six consecutive comeback wins, while having eight come-from-behind victories in total. But those adjustments also went beyond comebacks.
Their tactical alterations played a role in why they limited the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars, two teams that were in the top 5 in goals per game, in ways that made them struggle for goals.
That allowed the Oilers to reach another showdown against the Florida Panthers.
What went wrong? Everything was going well until Game 3. The Oilers split the first two games, with the reality they could have taken a 2-0 lead or possibly been down 0-2. What Game 3 exposed was the frequency with which the Oilers were prone to allowing multi-goal periods.
Entering Game 6, the Oilers had allowed more than two goals in seven of the first 13 periods of the Stanley Cup Final.
It was a contrast from the defensive performances they had against the Golden Knights and the Stars, and it led to their downfall. Comebacks are exciting but can’t be the norm.
Keys to the offseason: The conversation around the Oilers’ offseason is going to start with what happens with restricted free agent Evan Bouchard‘s next contract.
At the time Bouchard signed his two-year bridge deal worth $3.9 million annually, the cap-strapped Oilers had some leverage, in that Bouchard was a 40-point defenseman who needed to show more. Since then, he has gone on to average 0.91 points per game in the regular season while averaging more than a point per game in the postseason. What is that worth per year, and for how long?
The decision on Bouchard’s next deal has potential to be a franchise-altering one.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Winning a Stanley Cup is not only a realistic expectation in Edmonton, but it’s the only one that matters.
Reaching the Western Conference finals in three of the past four years reinforces how the Oilers are among the teams that are in a legitimate championship window. And while they have Leon Draisaitl under contract — with Bouchard under team control as an RFA — they are entering the final year of Connor McDavid‘s deal, which only heightens the need to win now.
Projected cap space: $19.00 million
2025 draft picks: 4th, 4th (CGY), 5th, 5th (SJ), 6th, 7th
What went right? It’s hard to do better than repeat as Stanley Cup champions. It’s safe to say that Florida had a pretty good year.
The Panthers proved they’re building a dynasty, with three consecutive trips to the Cup Final and now two titles under their belts. But Florida’s success this season started well before the postseason.
The Panthers’ 98-point regular-season campaign was maybe stronger defensively than offensively, as Florida averaged just 2.72 goals against as the league’s seventh-ranked defense. Sam Reinhart led the way for the Panthers up front (again) with a terrific 39-goal, 81-point effort, and Sam Bennett delivered a career-best 51-point showing, while Aleksander Barkov turned in another Selke Trophy-winning performance (and tallied 20 goals, 71 points).
GM Bill Zito went all-in for the Panthers ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Seth Jones and Brad Marchand, both of whom were excellent in the playoffs (Marchand in particular). The Panthers were all about balance though, and persevered through challenging stretches to put themselves in good position for the postseason. And the Panthers managed to leap right over any roadblocks they came upon.
What went wrong? Well … not a whole lot. There weren’t many moments in the postseason where Florida didn’t look in control of its own destiny. The Panthers’ second-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs was perhaps their toughest slog, falling behind 2-0 before rallying to down the Leafs in seven.
Florida also showed its vulnerabilities at times in the Cup Final against the Edmonton Oilers, particularly in a Game 4 collapse where they led 3-0 in the first period and went on to lose in overtime. When the Panthers struggled, it was mainly due to a lack of scoring depth showing up, a rare occurrence for them as the playoffs rolled along.
But more often than not, Florida received enough contributions for all four lines to make up for its deficiencies. And that’s why they’re champions again.
Keys to the offseason: Florida has a pair of significant pending unrestricted free agents in Bennett and Aaron Ekblad on whom to make decisions, and that will be at the top of Zito’s to-do list.
If the Panthers are able to re-sign both skaters, it would likely be with a majority of their available cap space, leaving Florida with either little else to do before next season or working the phones to make a few moves and shore up their depth in other ways.
They will need to figure out a backup goaltender for Sergei Bobrovsky, with Vitek Vanecek on an expiring deal, and filling in a few spots on the blue line will be a priority as well. Florida doesn’t have any draft picks in the first three rounds this year — further proof they are still built to win now — so once Zito settles on whether Bennett and Ekblad are staying (and at what price), the Panthers can begin to perhaps redefine what the team will look like by fall.
Does Marchand — another pending UFA — sign on again as well? He was among the Panthers’ most productive postseason performers. That may be enough for the 37-year-old to see another contract headed his way, too.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Florida doesn’t look to be slowing down. Zito will have them back in position to contend for another Cup — so long as Bobrovsky (at age 37) can still perform at an elite level.
Projected cap space: $5.32 million
2025 draft picks: 3rd, 5th, 5th (NJ), 6th, 7th
What went right? There’s no questioning their status as a championship contender. Not that the Stars’ aspirations were ever in question, but the moves that GM Jim Nill made throughout the 2024-25 season further reinforced the Stars to win now.
A team that once thought of draft picks as sacred moved on from first- and fourth-round picks in this summer’s draft in a trade that returned Cody Ceci and Mikael Granlund. Then Nill moved even more draft capital (two first-round picks and two third-round picks) and promising young forward Logan Stankoven to get Mikko Rantanen, before signing the superstar Finn to an eight-year extension.
All of that helped get the Stars back to the Western Conference finals for the third straight season.
What went wrong? Some of the questions that were present throughout the Stars’ playoff run — such as their depth — were issues in the conference finals against the Edmonton Oilers. It initially appeared as if the Stars had found a solution with the number of players who contributed to their 6-3 comeback win in Game 1.
But the next three games would see them score only twice, which made the Stars the second team that was in the top five in goals per game during the regular season to be effectively silenced by the Oilers in a playoff series (the Vegas Golden Knights were dispatched in the second round).
Failing to consistently score goals or generate some sort of a breakthrough in other areas is what led to Stars becoming the first team to reach three straight conference finals without advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in NHL history.
Keys to the offseason: Perhaps the only thing more draining than being a championship contender that can’t seem to reach the Stanley Cup Final? Figuring out how to remain in contention despite having only so much cap space.
The Stars have built well from within, allowing them to maintain the sort of cap space that has given them an advantage to this point. But with Wyatt Johnston and Jake Oettinger set to receive significant pay bumps on their new deals, and the first year of Rantanen’s new contract kicking in, the Stars will need to get creative — along with making some difficult decisions this summer. Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, Granlund, and Ceci headline the class of unrestricted free agents.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Much like they were this season, the Stars will again be among that category of teams in a championship window. But what will make next season hypothetically more challenging is the fact that the young core who have been key performers on those cheap contracts are now making more money. That not only amplifies the need for the Stars to hit on players on team-friendly deals, but it ramps up the pressure to start winning in this part of their window.
Projected cap space: $36.18 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (TB), 4th, 6th, 6th (TB), 7th
What went right? Carolina had another impressive regular season. The Canes finished in second place in the Metro Division, with a 99-point effort that set them up in good position for a long playoff run.
The Hurricanes were strikingly stingy again on defense, finishing in the top 10 in goals-against average (2.80), and their penalty kill was tops in the league (83.6%). Carolina’s offense was propelled by Seth Jarvis (32 goals) and Sebastian Aho (74 points), and worked in complement with their dialed-in defense.
The Hurricanes also lucked out in the trade-gone-bad for Mikko Rantanen; while Rantanen didn’t stick around, Carolina did get Logan Stankoven in return from Dallas (along with a bounty of picks) when it traded Rantanen away. Stankoven has been a key player for the Hurricanes this postseason, and will be for seasons to come.
Carolina managed to put it all together and get rolling to start the playoffs too, losing a combined two games in the first and second rounds to punch its ticket to a second Eastern Conference finals in three years.
What went wrong? Well, about that conference finals appearance. It did not go well. The Hurricanes lost — again — to Florida, although they won one game, which was one more than two years ago. Prior to the Game 4 victory, it was 15 straight losses in conference finals action. Not ideal.
Carolina had benefited from terrific goaltending from Frederik Andersen in the first two rounds, but the Hurricanes’ netminder was no match for the Panthers’ punishing attack. Coach Rod Brind’Armour replaced Andersen with Pyotr Kochetkov in Game 3, but that did little to slow Florida’s roll as they pounded Kochetkov just the same. Andersen was strong in Game 4, but couldn’t sustain it in Game 5.
The Hurricanes’ offense was no help, scoring three goals total in the series’ first three games. That lack of depth up front is what GM Eric Tulsky tried to address in acquiring Rantanen in the first place. Knowing Rantanen wouldn’t be sticking around long term — and was hardly a difference-maker with two goals in the 13 games he did play for Carolina — Tulsky had no choice but to give him up. Now he’ll have to try again at finding ways to put Carolina over the top.
Keys to the offseason: The Hurricanes have ample cap space to use in the offseason. That’s a bonus considering they’ve got some holes to fill.
There’s a need for Carolina to get — and keep — a Jake Guentzel or Rantanen type of player — that big, game-breaking talent who can drive their offense in a tough division, and get them a goal when they need it most in the playoffs. While Jarvis, Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and even Stankoven are excellent players, they aren’t moving the needle enough for Carolina when it counts. Whether it’s another splashy trade or finding someone on the open market to fill that role, the Hurricanes will be better equipped for the 2026 playoffs if they can land a headliner.
Tulsky has draft capital to wield as well, with a 2025 first-round choice a prime asset. The front office also must make decisions on an unrestricted free agent class that includes forwards Jack Roslovic, Eric Robinson, Jesper Fast and Tyson Jost, along with defensemen Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov.
And speaking of the back end, the Hurricanes are getting long in the tooth on their blue line. An infusion of some younger talent — along with increased opportunity for Alexander Nikishin (23) and Scott Morrow (22) — would go a long way.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Carolina has too many good players not to be in the playoff field again. It’s just a matter of what the results will be like when they arrive. There’s reason to question what they can put together after another disappointing showing on the heels of such early playoff promise.
Projected cap space: $27.49 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd (FLA), 3rd (EDM), 5th, 5th (PIT), 6th, 7th
What went right? The Maple Leafs enjoyed another terrific regular season. Toronto won its first division title in 25 years by finishing fourth overall in points (108) and wielding the seventh-best offense (3.26 goals per game). First-year coach Craig Berube restructured the Leafs into a team that could not only score goals but play a strong collective defensive game, too, resulting in the Leafs’ eighth-ranked defense (2.79 goals against).
The goaltending tandem of Anthony Stolarz (21-8-3, .926 save percentage, 2.14 goals-against average) and Joseph Woll (27-14-1, .909 SP, 2.73 GAA) worked seamlessly in Stolarz’s first season with the club, and new additions on the blue line — especially Chris Tanev — made the Maple Leafs more physically robust than they’d been in years.
The Leafs also got unexpectedly strong contributions from some familiar faces, including John Tavares; the veteran had one of his most productive seasons for Toronto, with 38 goals and 74 points. And rising star Matthew Knies had a breakout season with 29 goals and 58 points, success that he carried over into the postseason, with several solid performances. Speaking of which, the Leafs actually won a playoff round!
What went wrong? Toronto may have skated past the Ottawa Senators with a first-round victory, but the Leafs’ postseason demons were alive and well in their second-round clash with the Florida Panthers.
Toronto squandered an early 2-0 series lead, watching it evaporate in Florida’s come-from-behind victory in Game 3 and a shutout win in Game 4. The Leafs were booed off their own ice in Game 5’s 6-1 drubbing, where Toronto’s lack of star power was blatantly obvious. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander were all goal-less against the Panthers to that point, but they rose to the occasion in Game 6 to drag the Cats back to Toronto for Game 7.
That’s where the Leafs’ run ended, marking the sixth Game 7 loss for Toronto in the Matthews era. Florida is designed to wear opponents down, and while Toronto blocked shots with gusto the entire series, the Panthers’ heavy forecheck and strong play in front of a rock-solid Sergei Bobrovsky was too much to overcome. Toronto’s once-potent power play was no help, either, going 2-for-20 in the series.
Granted, the Leafs lost Stolarz in Game 1 of the series to an undisclosed injury, but Woll gave them every chance to take Game 4, was strong early in Game 5 and shut the door completely in Game 6. The Leafs simply couldn’t produce offensively, and in hallmark fashion their top skaters failed to show up when it mattered. Berube said Toronto was “overthinking” late in the postseason. That may have been true — and once again, there’s another too-long summer ahead to dwell on what could have been.
Keys to the offseason: First things first: Is Marner still a Maple Leaf next season? The pending unrestricted free agent wanted to play out the final year of his contract before deciding whether to recommit to Toronto. It’s time now for both sides to decide whether renewing their vows — or an amicable split — makes more sense.
The Leafs will have salary cap space to use on a significant extension, but depending on where Marner hopes to land (likely among the league’s highest-paid forwards), Toronto will have to balance his asking price with their other needs. Knies is a restricted free agent in whom the Leafs will want to invest, and Tavares’ deal is up, too. Given how the latter performed this season, there has to be interest on both sides to stay together.
There’s also the matter of Nicholas Robertson, another pending RFA who has in the past expressed his desire to leave Toronto. Will GM Brad Treliving find a suitable trade partner now?
The Leafs don’t have much draft capital, having traded their first-round pick this season for Jake McCabe in 2023, but the cap space they have will be useful on the open market — and Robertson could come into play as a trade chip as well.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Toronto is built to win now, and the team will be back chasing a division title again next season. Will it lead to anything of note in the playoffs? Well, it’s easy to wonder what it will take to make that a reality.
Projected cap space: $36.36 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Any questions about how Scott Arniel’s first season as the head coach would go after previous serving as Rick Bowness’ assistant were emphatically answered. Especially with the Jets pulling off something they hadn’t done since the 2020-21 season: advancing to the second round of the playoffs.
Much of their success stemmed from being able to trust they could receive contributions throughout their entire lineup. That was further fortified by having a consistent defensive structure that was enhanced by Connor Hellebuyck, who is in line to become the first American to win three Vezina Trophies.
What went wrong? There was never a concern about whether the Jets were a playoff team. But there were questions about how the Jets could fare against a team in a legitimate championship window if they got beyond the first round.
Facing the Dallas Stars provided glimpses that the Jets could keep games close for a time, before succumbing to the big period against one of the West’s top contenders. It’s what happened in Games 1 and 3, when the Stars had a pair of three-goal periods in those contests. Or it was seeing how key players such as Mikael Granlund and Mikko Rantanen paced the Stars with hat tricks and the Jets didn’t get the same high-octane offense.
Keys to the offseason: The Jets are going to have a lot of money this summer to address their roster.
Some of that will likely go toward re-signing pending restricted free agent Gabriel Vilardi, who just had his third straight 20-goal campaign while scoring a personal-best 61 points.
Where it gets complicated, interesting or both is figuring out how they’ll handle pending unrestricted free agent winger Nikolaj Ehlers. Does he stay? Does he leave? If he leaves, will they do a sign-and-trade and not risk losing him for nothing?
And if he does go, how do the Jets replace a dynamic, seven-time 20-goal scorer?
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: No team is guaranteed a playoff berth. But there are those that are judged more on what they did or didn’t do in the postseason compared to what they did in the regular season. That’s where the Jets currently live.
The Jets should challenge for a playoff spot in a demanding Central Division. It’s just that their well-noted struggles to get out of the first round is what makes the regular season, while important, not the barometer by which they will be assessed. Whether or not they can get out of the first round — and the second, and beyond — will be the new litmus test for the Jets.
Projected cap space: $12.38 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (BOS), 3rd (CAR), 4th, 5th
What went right? Washington was supposed to be rebuilding, and this season showed the Capitals didn’t need long to regroup. They were excellent from the outset of the regular season and quickly climbed atop the Eastern Conference standings. That’s where the Capitals stayed most of the season, accumulating the second-most points (111) in the league on the strength of their second-ranked offense (averaging 3.49 goals per game) and superb goaltending from Logan Thompson (31-6-6, .910 SV%, 2.49 GAA).
There was no bigger — or better — storyline for the Capitals though than seeing captain Alex Ovechkin make history when he surpassed Wayne Gretzky as the NHL’s all-time scoring leader with career goal No. 895 on April 6. It was an individual accomplishment Ovechkin chased with his entire team; his teammates referenced that quest as a constant source of motivation through the ups and downs of their season.
In addition to the Capitals’ veteran guard showing off, the Capitals saw terrific growth from some other emerging stars as well, including Ovechkin’s frequent linemates Aliaksei Protas (with a 30-goal campaign) and Dylan Strome (who led the club with 82 points). Coach Spencer Carbery deserves ample credit for turning the Capitals around in record time.
What went wrong? The Capitals’ greatest strength in the regular season became their biggest challenge by the playoffs. Washington’s red-hot offense began drying up in their second-round series against Carolina, as the Hurricanes’ stout defense and outstanding goaltending smothered the Capitals’ rush attack.
Ovechkin was particularly absent from the scoresheet against Carolina, failing to get on the board until he notched a power-play marker in Game 4. But Washington’s depth wasn’t the asset it could have been, with the team averaging just over two goals per game.
While Thompson did his best to hold the Hurricanes at bay, he didn’t receive enough support to turn those efforts into victories. The Capitals weren’t creating high-danger chances like they could in the regular season, and the lack of a net-front presence made it too easy for Frederik Andersen to shut the door.
Meanwhile, Washington’s own defensive efforts never matched Carolina’s intensity, and the Hurricanes leaned on 10 different goal scorers for a more balanced offense than what Washington rolled out. Carolina also capitalized on a poor Capitals penalty kill (72.7%) to send them into an early summer.
Keys to the offseason: Washington is in a good position for a bright future. In the process of getting there, the Capitals will also be saying a likely goodbye to some critical veteran presences from their past.
T.J. Oshie is a pending unrestricted free agent after missing the entire 2024-25 season with a chronic back issue. Same for Nicklas Backstrom, who missed the entire campaign with a hip injury. With those skaters off the books, the Capitals will be able to restock on the open market, and should be targeting top-nine skaters to help avoid running aground offensively again in the postseason.
The Capitals have other veterans with expiring deals as well — namely Lars Eller and Anthony Beauvillier — who have been role players in what was a strong season. Washington can also do some damage at the draft — whether via trades or using the picks — with selections in the first five rounds. Then, of course, there’s the question of Ovechkin: is he done now after that historic achievement? Or is there another year ahead for him in the NHL? He has one year remaining on his contract.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Washington may need some offensive upgrades, but it’s nothing so drastic as to keep them from being a playoff team again. Expect to see them trend in a similar direction — towards the top of the Metropolitan standings — next season.
Projected cap space: $9.62 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 3rd (WSH), 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th (WSH)
What went right? For all the concerns about how much they lost in free agency last summer, the Golden Knights found solutions. Homegrown talent Pavel Dorofeyev led them in goals in the regular season (35), and others such as Brett Howden had breakout campaigns.
Many of those contributions — coupled with what they received from their stars and other venerable figures — allowed the Golden Knights to remain in the category of teams that could challenge for a Stanley Cup. Their depth was certainly on display against the Minnesota Wild in the first round.
What went wrong? In the second round against the Oilers, that depth disappeared. They came into Game 5 trying to find the type of answers that eluded them all series.
Players such as Ivan Barbashev, Tomas Hertl and Howden combined to score 78 goals in the regular season — but had zero in the series against Edmonton. Their defensemen combined for 35 goals during the regular season, but had only one in the playoffs.
A lack of consistent scoring was pivotal in the series, particularly in the games in which the Golden Knights scored the first goal in an attempt to gain a grasp of control only to watch the series slip through their fingers.
Keys to the offseason: Next offseason will be the one in which the Golden Knights will face some major questions: Franchise center Jack Eichel‘s current deal runs through 2025-26, while the contracts for Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo and William Karlsson run through 2026-27.
But for now, they have 16 players under contract for next season, and Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith are part of a six-player unrestricted free agent class. Nicolas Hague is their key restricted free agent; he has one year of team control remaining before he hits UFA status.
It’s possible that the Golden Knights use their cap space to add around the edges, while trying to secure a deal with Hague that works for both sides ahead of what’s expected to be a busy 2025-26 campaign.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The demand — as always, for a franchise that has made winning at all costs its hallmark — is challenging for the Stanley Cup.
But that comes with the caveat that this upcoming season could have two major roster-construction wrinkles: Eichel and Dorofeyev. As noted, Eichel is entering the final year of a contract that sees him earn $10 million annually. As for Dorofeyev, replicating or surpassing the career-high 35 goals he scored this season could see him cash in on a new deal; he’ll be a pending RFA that’s set to earn $1.835 million in 2025-26. Finding long-term solutions to both situations will be critical.
Projected cap space: $7.15 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 5th, 6th
What went right? Every move that GM Doug Armstrong made throughout the summer and into the season.
The offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway led to Broberg, when healthy, having a career-high eight goals and 29 points while logging more than 20 minutes per game. Not to be outdone, Holloway had his first 20-goal campaign.
The trade for Cam Fowler resulted in him having one of the strongest seasons of his career — and leading the team in scoring for much of the first round.
Moving on from Drew Bannister to hire Jim Montgomery resulted in the Blues gaining a legitimate level of consistency that they used to reach the playoffs for the first time since the 2021-22 season.
What went wrong? Part of the issue was that the Blues could never win a game at Canada Life Centre. The rest stems from the Blues having a proven blueprint that worked twice but failed to be replicated two more times to win the series against the Winnipeg Jets.
Generating a combined 20 high-danger scoring chances in Games 3 and 4 was instrumental in the Blues scoring 11 goals against Connor Hellebuyck in those contests. That created a belief that the Blues could capitalize on the struggles of one of the best goalies of his era, whose regular-season success had yet to translate to the playoffs. But Hellebuyck and the Jets would find a counter en route to advancing to the second round.
Keys to the offseason: For starters, the Blues don’t have a ton of cap space. But they have only one pending restricted free agent in goaltender Joel Hofer, while center Radek Faksa and defenseman Ryan Suter are their only pending unrestricted free agents.
Then there’s the Torey Krug situation. He missed the entire regular season and playoffs after undergoing ankle surgery in the preseason. Getting Krug back would not only give the Blues a logjam of defensemen, but it would give them six blueliners under contract who are each earning more than $4 million annually — and all of them except Broberg have some form of trade protection.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Returning to the playoffs, or at least remaining in the hunt for a playoff spot late into the season, is the plan. The Central Division is still going to have teams such as the Avalanche and Stars that are in a championship window, with the Jets trying to establish themselves as a perennial threat.
Meanwhile, the Wild are expected to be an active player in free agency, while the same could be said for Utah after it stayed in contention for a wild card entering the final two weeks of the season. Adding the Blues to that equation means there will be six teams (at minimum) in the division legitimately vying for a playoff spot in 2025-26.
Projected cap space: $8.70 million
2025 draft picks: 4th (VAN), 7th
What went right? Adjustments and course corrections. By December, the Avalanche already had concerns about their supporting cast — along with the problems created by an inconsistent goaltending tandem.
That prompted Avs general manager Chris MacFarland to make a series of trades that saw Colorado do everything from get a new tandem in net — led by Mackenzie Blackwood — to make key additions at the trade deadline to make the Avs one of the more dangerous teams heading into the playoffs. Their first-round exit came at the hands of a team that’s seeking to make its third straight conference finals appearance.
What went wrong? The margins for error were extremely tight. Then again, that was likely to be the case in a first-round matchup of two teams that are clearly in a championship window — and both finished with more than 100 points in the regular season.
Opening the series against the Dallas Stars with a 5-1 win and taking Game 4 with a 4-0 win spoke to just how commanding the Avs could be against a fellow Stanley Cup challenger.
But the overtime wins the Stars had in Games 2 and 3 were the difference in the Avs either sweeping the series or, in this case, being knocked out in seven after an impressive Game 6 win. They even led 2-0 in Game 7, only to witness an historic third period by former teammate Mikko Rantanen.
Keys to the offseason: Determining the best way to spend their limited cap dollars is the task every team in a championship window faces. The Avalanche know this reality all too well with the biggest factor being Gabriel Landeskog‘s health. While his return provides the Avs with a top-six forward, his $7 million cap can’t be moved to long-term injured reserve to create financial flexibility as the team had done the past few years.
That’s what leaves the Avs with a projected $8.70 million in cap space to address a seven-player unrestricted free agent class that includes Jonathan Drouin and trade deadline pickups Ryan Lindgren and Brock Nelson.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: They’re still expected to remain among the top contenders that will challenge for a Stanley Cup. The Avs have their core and quite a few members of their supporting cast under contract through at least next season. What they do in the offseason will play a role in supplementing what they already have, with the notion they’re going to be among that handful of Western Conference teams that feel the title is within reach.
Projected cap space: $23.48 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (PHI)
What went right? Nearly everything they did in the regular season. Something that might get lost within the discourse around the Kings was their 48 wins tied the franchise record for the most single-season victories, while their 105 points was also tied for the most in their history.
They overcame losing Drew Doughty to a preseason injury, finally found a stable presence in goal with Darcy Kuemper, established themselves as one of the strongest defensive units in the NHL and received contributions throughout the entirety of their lineup– to the point that 14 players had more than 20 points, with five of them being defensemen. But …
What went wrong? Losing to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round … again.
Winning the first two games of the series by scoring six goals in each contest created the early impression that this could be the year that saw the Kings finally advance to the second round for the first time in more than a decade. Instead, their first-round loss has raised questions:
Why did they struggle to make adjustments beyond Game 2? Why were they able to build a commanding lead in Game 2 yet blew consecutive leads in Games 3 and 4? Why is it that just simply typing Jim Hiller’s name in an internet search is immediately met with “Jim Hiller challenge” because there’s a belief his Game 3 decision might have been the turning point in the series? And then there’s one more pressing question to consider given their latest first-round exit.
Keys to the offseason: Are the Kings going to stay the course or do they use this offseason to make significant changes?
If they move on from Hiller, that will give the Kings their third head coach since February 2024 when they fired Todd McLellan. Or could ownership be inclined to look at a front office that, while making several moves to improve the roster, hasn’t quite found the definitive combination to get the Kings beyond the first round?
Anything the Kings do this offseason will be with the purpose of not only trying to win in the first round but figuring out how they can win against elite teams in the conference.
The Kings have a six-player UFA class that’s led by Vladislav Gavrikov and Andrei Kuzmenko. Should they elect to get deals done for at least those two, it leaves the Kings with the financial flexibility to address the roster to compete against the best in the west at the most demanding time of the season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Maybe more than just making the playoffs? They have the majority of their roster coming back, while also having quite a bit of cap space. Although nothing about that exact circumstance means there are guarantees, there is an expectation that the Kings will once again be challenging for a playoff spot.
But what they do in the offseason, however, will come with this one crucial question: Will it be the difference in the Kings advancing to at least the second round — or could it result in another promising run cut short by an early postseason exit?
Projected cap space: $21.88 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 4th (TOR), 5th (CBJ), 6th
What went right? Navigating Kirill Kaprizov‘s absence to make the playoffs. Before Kaprizov sustained the December injury that kept him out until April, the Wild were establishing a case for why they might be one of the best teams in the Western Conference. They were scoring enough goals in tandem with a defensive structure and goalie performances that allowed them to excel in tight situations.
But Kaprizov’s injury resulted in the loss of their leading scorer, which prompted the Wild to rely on their defensive identity in order to capture a wild-card spot and advance to the playoffs.
What went wrong? Their ability to win one-goal games went dormant. Bizarre as it sounds, the trait that allowed the Wild to manifest their playoff berth was also the one that doomed them to losing in the opening round for the fifth time in the past six seasons.
One of the arguments for why the Wild could reach the second round was because they won 18 of their 28 one-goal games in the regular season. But to lose not just one, but two games in a row to the Vegas Golden Knights by a single goal in overtime? It represents how, in future seasons, the Wild might not be that far off from reaching the second round for the first time since the 2014-15 season.
Keys to the offseason: They have lots of cap space. That’s not always been the case in Minnesota. But it will be this offseason for a franchise that now has the necessary space to strengthen a roster that’s had to largely rely on its homegrown talent.
One of the questions the Wild must answer, however, is what becomes of Marco Rossi. A first-round pick in 2020, Rossi emerged into a top-six center, but had 14 points throughout February, March and April after he scored that same amount in January. He bounced back to score two goals and three points in the playoffs entering Game 6, but had the third fewest minutes per game of any Wild player.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Maybe more than just making the playoffs? Having more than $20 million in projected cap space is going to make the Wild something of a player in free agency. How they spend that money could then set the expectations for the Wild. Even with that caveat, there is a belief that the 2025-26 season has a chance to be one that sees the Wild get additional offensive help to keep pace in the treacherous Central Division — with the intent of being a team that could create problems for opponents in the postseason.
Projected cap space: $18.44 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (FLA), 4th (SJ), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Ottawa took a crucial step forward by finally making the postseason. It signaled that, after a seven-year absence from the playoff field, the Senators’ rebuild is essentially over. And expectations should increase accordingly.
Ottawa showed it could be a stout defensive team, buying into the structure that first-year head coach Travis Green laid out and refused to back down from until his players embraced executing the right way. The Senators’ young stars — namely Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson — all showed significant growth in their games, and the playoff experience earned should be invaluable to them (and the rest of the Senators) moving forward.
Linus Ullmark also proved he could give Ottawa something it hasn’t had in years: a dependable No. 1 goaltender in whom to feel confident. The Senators’ foundation is on sound, solid ground.
What went wrong? The postseason is a different beast. It’s a lesson that can only be learned — and truly appreciated — once you’ve been there. Ottawa was an average offensive team throughout the regular season (collecting fewer than three goals per game), and its scoring dried up even further in the playoffs (sliding to just two goals per game). The Senators’ penalty kill also repeatedly let them down in the regular season (at 77.7%) and got even worse in the playoffs (68.8%).
Aside from a Game 5 shutout, Ullmark stumbled when the Senators needed him to stand tall, posting a poor .883 save percentage and 2.80 goals-against average in the postseason. It’s not that Ottawa didn’t come close in that first-round series against Toronto — three games were decided in overtime, after all, one of which the Sens won — but the Senators were just too green to take advantage of the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ occasional mistakes.
Now that the Senators have established their defensive game, it’s time they figure out how to bring a consistent offensive effort to match.
Keys to the offseason: The Senators have some in-house decisions to make on a pair of veteran skaters approaching free agency. Claude Giroux has been an integral part of Ottawa’s lineup and dressing room since arriving three seasons ago. If the 37-year-old plans to keep playing, it would behoove the Senators to retain his services, for depth and mentorship.
Then there’s Anton Forsberg. He worked in tandem with Ullmark this season, and should the 32-year-old leave, GM Steve Staios will be determining whom to pair with Ullmark in the coming seasons.
Ottawa has a handful of other forwards who could depart in free agency, so the Senators should expect to be somewhat active in free agency, shoring up their bottom six to ensure they can complement the elite scoring threats they have in Tkachuk, Stutzle & Co. Ottawa worked hard to be in a position where there aren’t many gaps to fill, though. The Senators don’t necessarily need to be splashy, just smart.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Ottawa should absolutely expect to compete for a playoff spot next season. It’s never easy getting over the disappointment of a swift postseason exit, but those frustrations will add fuel to the fire for next season to show that this was only the beginning of the Senators’ next chapter.
Projected cap space: $9.10 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd (LA), 4th (EDM), 5th, 7th, 7th (MIN), 7th (SJ), 7th (UTA)
What went right? Tampa Bay proved it was (still) a powerhouse in the regular season, with a league-leading offense (averaging 3.56 goals per game), a top-five power play (at 25.9%) and arguably the NHL’s best forward in Nikita Kucherov (who paced his peers with 121 points). And the Lightning managed to stay out front even after parting ways with former captain Steven Stamkos. His successor with the C — defenseman Victor Hedman — put in another elite campaign anchoring Tampa Bay’s blue line and penalty kill.
The Lightning’s old hands were up to their same tricks in every area, especially goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy earned yet another Vezina Trophy finalist nod on the strength of his season (.921 save percentage, 2.18 goals-against average). Jon Cooper, now far and away the NHL’s longest tenured head coach, capably guided Tampa Bay through the season’s inevitable rough patches, and somehow the Lightning always came out for the better.
They reached the postseason for an eighth straight year to make good on GM Julien BriseBois’ repeated decision to sacrifice long-term possibility (via draft picks) to stay focused on the chance of present-day success.
What went wrong? The Lightning were rightly expected to dominate offensively in the playoffs, too, and, well, it didn’t happen. Tampa Bay averaged the second-fewest goals per game among postseason teams (2.25), and Kucherov was particularly absent, with zero goals in the Lightning’s first four games against the Florida Panthers. And that power play? Nonexistent, at 1-for-15, as Tampa Bay was on the ropes going into Game 5.
The Lightning also had to deal with the theatrics of a physical first-round series that included Matthew Tkachuk‘s blistering hit on Jake Guentzel and losing Brandon Hagel twice (first to a suspension in Game 3 for his hit on Aleksander Barkov, and then to a vicious elbowing by Aaron Ekblad).
That was only part of the story, though. The Lightning were often their own worst enemy. Tampa Bay’s defense let them down in Game 4 when, after the Lightning had held a lead with the potential to tie their series 2-2, a pair of late goals against (scored 11 seconds apart) cost them a victory. It was a tough comedown, having already seen Hagel depart as well. In the end, the Lightning didn’t do enough with their opportunity, and it was over too soon.
Keys to the offseason: Tampa Bay will have some cap space (for once), so BriseBois can get creative to bolster the Lightning next season. What does that look like, exactly?
Is it right for Tampa Bay to try running it back again after a third consecutive first-round exit? Does BriseBois need to change tactics to see the Lightning’s chances improve at that most crucial time of year? BriseBois has mortgaged much of Tampa Bay’s future (via trade of players and picks) to keep pushing their chips in on another Stanley Cup run. Will he be aggressive in pursuing that again? If so, it’s all about the trade and free agent market for Tampa Bay.
The Lightning have just three picks in the first five rounds of the draft (one second, one fourth and a fifth), so maybe BriseBois could leverage those somewhere.
Otherwise, it will just be about filling in the gaps. Nick Perbix is the only UFA of note for BriseBois to consider, but he will want to ensure scoring depth won’t be an issue next year at this time. Adding another goaltender to play with Vasilevskiy (current backup Jonas Johansson is a UFA) would also be prudent.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Lightning’s regular-season performance put them in the running for an Atlantic title. It’s hard to think they’ll fall off entirely from there — not after BriseBois went all-in getting Guentzel on a long-term deal and when Kucherov is still in his prime. There’s little doubt Tampa Bay will push to be back in the postseason.
Projected cap space: $10.53 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (CGY), 2nd, 2nd (PIT), 3rd, 3rd (NJ), 3rd (VAN), 4th, 4th (BOS), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Montreal reached the postseason in Year 3 of what has been an arduous rebuild. That’s no small feat. The Canadiens stumbled out of the gate this season but didn’t let early adversity deter them from powering through.
When the Canadiens topped Buffalo 5-2 on Nov. 11, it was practically the start of a new season for the team — Montreal went 36-22-9 to the finish line, earning the league’s 11th-best points percentage in that stretch and eventually the Eastern Conference’s final wild-card playoff spot.
It wouldn’t have been possible without some exceptional performances from Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, a breakout showing from rookie defenseman Lane Hutson and strong secondary contributions from Patrik Laine, Juraj Slafkovsky and Jake Evans. Star prospect Ivan Demidov was a nice surprise addition to the playoff roster and did not look out of place.
Coach Martin St. Louis also deserves credit for treating the Canadiens like they deserved to be in playoff contention. That sort of confidence is what fuels a team to exceed expectations — which is exactly what Montreal was able to accomplish.
What went wrong? The Canadiens’ scoring was top-heavy in the regular season, and that caught up to them again in the playoffs. While facing the Washington Capitals was always going to be an uphill battle, Montreal made it harder when, outside of Caufield, Suzuki and Christian Dvorak, they didn’t have many offensive contributors.
Goaltending also became an issue after starter Sam Montembeault was injured in Game 3, to be replaced by backup Jakub Dobes. The latter performed admirably given he had appeared in all of 16 NHL games before the series, but Montreal losing its No. 1 in Montembeault certainly weakened the team as well. Dobes and his defenders lacked effective communication, and it cost the Canadiens on the scoresheet.
In the end, it was the Canadiens’ lack of postseason experience that shuttered their run. Washington capitalized on seemingly every Montreal mistake, learned behavior by a veteran team that has been used to winning. While the Canadiens were impressive in areas such as special teams during their run, it’s the details (like key faceoff wins, for example) that can be daunting. Montreal will have to learn from its mistakes to take positive steps next season.
Keys to the offseason: The way GM Kent Hughes has handled the Canadiens’ rebuild so far — words such as “slow” and “steady” come to mind — suggests he won’t be using Montreal’s playoff tenure as an excuse to start fast-tracking.
The Canadiens have two picks in each of the first two rounds of this draft; those selections will be vital for Montreal as it continues stocking the cupboards with young talent to carry the franchise forward. Hughes will have to address the goaltending situation in some fashion, though, likely with a free agent signee to support Montembeault while Dobes continues to cook in the minors.
And then there’s the club’s scoring depth. Hughes acquired Laine last offseason to boost the Canadiens up front — and he did add 20 goals and 33 points — but the often-injured forward appeared in only 52 games. Montreal needs more from Laine and a couple other skaters Hughes could see playing a top-nine role for the Canadiens. Even when Suzuki and Caufield are rolling, it’s not enough to expect they can carry Montreal’s offense again — especially come playoff time.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Montreal will be in the thick of another fight to earn an Eastern Conference playoff spot. The Atlantic might just be the league’s most competitive division, though. If the Canadiens want to stay in the mix again, some changes should be made to give them a boost over their division rivals.
Projected cap space: $13.86 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 2nd (EDM), 3rd (VGK), 4th, 6th, 6th (SJ)
What went right? New Jersey overcame significant adversities this season to be a playoff team. It’s a testament to the Devils’ resiliency that even after losing top skater Jack Hughes in March they managed to stay in the hunt and punch their ticket. The Hughes injury highlighted the seasons that some of New Jersey’s other burgeoning stars were having, including Jesper Bratt (in an 88-point campaign) and Nico Hischier (a dominant two-way center, who scored 35 goals).
The Devils owed a large portion of their success to improved goaltending from Jacob Markstrom — and GM Tom Fitzgerald for finally shoring up that position by acquiring Markstrom in the first place. The veteran was solid in the regular season, and soared during the Devils’ postseason run as one of the best goaltenders in any first-round series.
New Jersey’s first-year head coach Sheldon Keefe managed to implement a solid system and get the Devils to buy in, even when the going got tough. New Jersey should rightly feel good about what a fully healthy lineup can look like moving ahead.
What went wrong? Ah, injuries. They caught up big time for these Devils. Hughes was gone in March, while Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler missed significant time in the regular season before returning. And throughout New Jersey’s playoff run, its defensemen began dropping like flies, with Brenden Dillon, Luke Hughes and Johnathan Kovacevic all missing in action. Not even Markstrom’s brilliance could account for that many important players sitting out.
The Devils didn’t help themselves, though. New Jersey was a whopping 0% on the power play, averaged just 1.75 goals per game and struggled on the penalty kill (69.2%). Outside of Hischier — who collected three goals in the postseason — the Devils simply couldn’t get rolling offensively.
In a way, it’s hard to assess New Jersey’s efforts fully given how banged up it became. How much better might the Devils have been across the board had the infirmary not filled up? We’ll never know. It’s clear that Fitzgerald’s inaction at the trade deadline (where he made minor moves such as adding third-line center Cody Glass and blueliner Brian Dumoulin) hurt New Jersey in the long run.
Keys to the offseason: Fitzgerald has a few things to figure out for the Devils. His top priority is pending restricted free agent Luke Hughes and figuring out what the 21-year-old’s next contract will look like.
Then there’s New Jersey’s goaltending, and who will be Markstrom’s partner next season. Jake Allen is set to hit free agency, and Nico Daws may not be ready for full-time backup duty.
Free agency should be filled with skaters for Fitzgerald to parse through in order to revamp the Devils’ offense. The Devils have five veterans hitting unrestricted free agency, and a pair of RFAs in Glass and Nolan Foote. Inaction didn’t serve New Jersey well in the past, and there’s a need to infuse their lineup with at least a couple viable scoring threats to keep the Devils from turning top-heavy again next season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: New Jersey has felt notoriously hard to predict in recent years. It has oscillated from winning a playoff round to not making the postseason at all. If the Devils can keep (most) everyone available next year, though — and make some offseason adjustments — they should expect to be top contenders in the Metro again.
The non-playoff teams
Projected cap space: $42.08 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (MIN), 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th (VGK)
What went right? Columbus stayed in the playoff race until the final week. That alone is a victory for this group. The Blue Jackets set out to play meaningful hockey in March and April and that’s what they did through a special season that will give Columbus confidence to enter 2025-26 as a viable postseason contender.
Zach Werenski had a Norris Trophy-caliber campaign, with a team-leading 75 points through 76 games. Rising stars Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli showed their continued maturity in great seasons. Overall, the Blue Jackets’ 11th-ranked offense (with 3.17 goals per game) exceeded expectations. Columbus showed real progress over the course of an emotionally turbulent season.
What went wrong? The Blue Jackets were bitten by the injury bug. Boone Jenner, Erik Gudbranson and Sean Monahan all missed significant time with various ailments. That hurt Columbus from the get-go, with no Jenner or Gudbranson for the first few months of the season.
The Blue Jackets’ goaltending was subpar too, with Elvis Merzlikins owning a middling .892 save percentage as the club’s No. 1. It’s no wonder Columbus finished sixth worst in goals-against average (3.42) and they were among the league’s worst teams in allowing third-period markers. The Blue Jackets’ youth shone through in good ways and bad throughout the year, particularly against tougher opponents, and it’s something they’ll have to learn from for the season ahead.
Keys to the offseason: Columbus has a pair of first-round draft choices to play with this season, and that’s a good thing for GM Don Waddell. He knows how green this franchise still is, and wants to keep building a foundation that the Blue Jackets benefit from for years to come. There are also important RFAs to negotiate with, including Dmitri Voronkov and Daniil Tarasov.
In free agency, Waddell can shift focus to Columbus’ netminding. Merzlikins hasn’t come up with a season save percentage above .900 since 2021-22. Can Columbus expect to take a step forward if Merzlikins is their go-to guy in the crease next year? Can they give the reins to Jet Greaves, who closed out the season with a dominant stretch?
Waddell wasn’t active at the March trade deadline so as not to disrupt his club’s chemistry. This summer he can make some meaningful changes that give the Blue Jackets a solid boost by September’s training camp.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Columbus should be pressing for a playoff berth. They nearly corralled one this season, and the confidence that injected into the team could carry over to next season and beyond. As long as the young players can stay on their positive trajectory, there’s considerable depth for Columbus to lean on.
Projected cap space: $36.21 million
2025 draft picks: 1st (FLA), 1st (NJ), 2nd (COL), 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The Flames made progress in more ways than one. They went from finishing with 81 points in 2023-24 to challenging for a playoff spot until the final week.
But what might get lost is that they established an identity. Whether it be with their roster, their coaching staff or their front office, change has been a constant with the Flames for the last few seasons. This season saw them attain and then maintain a level of continuity that could see them contend for a playoff spot — if not make the playoffs — next season. Dustin Wolf was a revelation in goal, cementing his status as the Flames’ No. 1 goalie moving forward, and making a Calder Trophy case.
What went wrong? An offensive disconnect. Normally a lack of goals can be traced back to challenges in several areas. But a look under the hood at their underlying numbers paints a confusing picture.
The Flames were top 10 in shots per 60 minutes, and were 13th in scoring chances per 60. Yet they were in the bottom third when it came to high-danger chances per 60. When combined, those factors led to the Flames finishing with the second-fewest goals per game, and having the NHL’s second-worst shooting percentage.
Keys to the offseason: Securing new deals for pending restricted free agents Kevin Bahl, Matt Coronato and Connor Zary is a priority, given what they mean to both the present and future of the Flames.
After those deals are in place, the Flames will still have quite a bit of cap space to address their needs — perhaps with some more consistent sources of offense? Whatever the front office decides, they must do so with the notion of getting one step closer toward reaching the postseason.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Making the playoffs. Whenever teams get this close to a playoff spot without making it, there’s an expectation that the following season should include a playoff berth. Some of that will depend upon what happens in the offseason. Not only with the Flames, but with other clubs in a competitive Western Conference where 11 teams will finish with 89 points or more.
Projected cap space: $39.55 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (WPG), 3rd, 3rd (TOR), 4th (DET), 5th, 5th (EDM), 6th, 7th
What went right? The team’s young core made progress. Unlike his rookie season, Leo Carlsson wasn’t limited to a certain number of games, and the result was a 20-goal season. Goaltender Lukas Dostal won 20 games, and was in the top 20 in save percentage. Cutter Gauthier flirted with a 20-goal season as a rookie. Jackson LaCombe went from 17 points in 71 games in 2023-24 to having 14 goals and 43 points in 70 games, averaging an additional three minutes of ice time. Mason McTavish had his first 20-goal and 50-point season.
Those players are all key building blocks, and all played a role in the Ducks finishing with more than 70 points after consecutive, sub-60-point seasons.
What went wrong? The defensive infrastructure around Dostal. After finishing the 2023-24 season with a minus-91 goal differential, the Ducks needed to be better in the defensive zone in 2024-25. This season, they did cut the differential to minus-34, which speaks to some progress. But their underlying metrics prove there’s still more work to be done. Natural Stat Trick’s data shows that the Ducks gave up the NHL’s most shots per 60 minutes, the most scoring chances per 60 and the most high-danger chances per 60.
Keys to the offseason: Again, it goes back to the young core. Dostal is a pending restricted free agent and is expected to receive a significant increase from his $812,500 salary. McTavish timed his first 20-goal season well; his entry-level contract ends, meaning he’ll also need to sign a new deal this offseason. Securing those contracts should still give the Ducks quite a bit of cap space as they seek to add more help around their core for the next phase.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: In a way, they appear to be on the same path the Utah Hockey Club took in 2024-25. Although the playoffs might not be in reach next season, the Ducks were nearly at a point-per-game pace. Another year of experience for their core — coupled with what they could do in free agency — could have them contending for a wild-card spot until next season’s final weeks.
Projected cap space: $27.14 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (CAR), 2nd (STL), 3rd, 4th (PHI), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The best thing Boston did this season was lean all the way into a rebuild. It was inevitable that after a decade of perennial playoff contention the Bruins were going to take a step back — and take stock. GM Don Sweeney’s early coaching change — from Jim Montgomery to Joe Sacco — didn’t give Boston a boost, and by the trade deadline it was smart for Sweeney to be a big-time seller. The Bruins acquired valuable draft capital — including four picks in the first and second rounds — and they added some intriguing new faces such as Casey Mittelstadt and Fraser Minten. Some burgeoning late-season chemistry between David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie is a nice bonus for the Bruins as a potential pairing to watch.
What went wrong? Boston lost seven of its first 11 games. That was hardly a good omen for what was ahead. The Bruins’ calling card has long been its defensive play, so losing top defenseman Hampus Lindholm to a season-ending patella fracture in mid-November was crushing. Montgomery was fired the same week. Jeremy Swayman — following a contentious contract dispute — was mediocre in net. And there was little help from the Bruins’ offense in making up for any of their defensive and goaltending issues. Boston is 29th in scoring, averaging just 2.63 goals per game, and on the power play (15.5%).
Charlie McAvoy‘s upper-body injury in early February at the 4 Nations Face-Off was another gut punch. It’s no wonder Sweeney keyed on major changes — such as moving on from captain Brad Marchand — considering how much these Bruins pale in comparison to what previous teams produced.
Keys to the offseason: The Bruins need a permanent head coach. Sweeney could opt to remove Sacco’s interim tag or explore who else is available. Once Sweeney has that person in place, they can start preparing for an important upcoming draft in which Boston will have a high first-round selection and two picks in the second round. Those picks take on a greater meaning now considering the Bruins don’t have a deep prospect pool. The focus then shifts to determining which of Boston’s young players will be ready to take a leap in the NHL, and how the Bruins will prioritize adding veteran players around them in free agency. The rebuild will be in full swing.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Boston still has a 40-goal scorer in Pastrnak. If Lindholm and McAvoy return to full health, and Swayman can be a game-changer in net again, there’s hope for the Bruins to be a fun club to watch — if not one that reaches the playoffs after a one-year absence. It’s not as if they’re starting from scratch.
Projected cap space: $22.32 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th (MIN), 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (NSH), 7th (WSH)
What went right? Buffalo proved this season it is capable of being a playoff team. The Sabres overcame a slow start to hold a postseason slot at Thanksgiving, which is often a good indicator of a club’s potential to stay there through the season. Tage Thompson had a terrific season, scoring 44 goals and averaging a point per game; when the Sabres do finally break through, they’ll have him in large part to thank for keeping their offensive engine going. Rasmus Dahlin also continues to be a standout with 62 points from the back end.
GM Kevyn Adams was able to trade underperforming Dylan Cozens and added Josh Norris (injured for most of his Sabres’ tenure to date) for the future.
What went wrong? The Sabres have failed to qualify for the playoffs in 14 straight seasons. That’s tied with the New York Jets for the longest active drought in major professional sports. But Buffalo had its chance. The Sabres were in the mix until a 13-game winless streak through December torpedoed things. And Adams didn’t do anything at the trade deadline to make Buffalo better despite its many flaws. The Sabres’ collective goaltending was awful, with the league’s second-worst save percentage. Buffalo gives up the fourth-most goals per game (3.47) and that’s all the more disappointing considering the Sabres are seventh in scoring (3.27).
The Sabres can be their own worst enemy. Ditto with how Buffalo started strong — with the third-most first period goals — only to offer up the fourth most in the third period. The Sabres’ attention to detail wasn’t where it needed to be, and expected growth from players such as Jack Quinn and Zach Benson didn’t materialize.
Keys to the offseason: This was Adams’ fifth season in Buffalo — all, obviously, without a playoff appearance. Will ownership keep him on for another kick at that can? It was Adams who installed Lindy Ruff as coach (again) last season, and that alone might keep Adams around. The Sabres have several personnel decisions to make from there. Quinn, JJ Peterka, Bowen Byram, Devon Levi and Ryan McLeod are all restricted free agents. Who will Buffalo retain — and who winds up without a qualifying offer?
Then it’s on to additions from the outside. The Sabres need stronger goaltending next season, and if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Levi can’t provide it as a tandem, then Adams must explore the market for a veteran who can either support one of them or take the reins as a No. 1. That would go a long way in supporting Buffalo toward consistently being the team it has been of late, winning 10 of 13 through March into April — when, unfortunately, it was all too little, too late.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Dare we say it? Playoffs. That’s where Buffalo absolutely must get. And they have the talent to do it. It’s on management to fill in the gaps and get the Sabres out of their historic skid.
Projected cap space: $29.17 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TOR), 2nd, 2nd (DAL), 3rd, 4th, 4th (NYR), 6th, 7th
What went right? The Seth Jones trade. After Jones told Blackhawks management that he wanted to be moved to a contender, how would they strike a deal for a player with three more years on his contract worth $9.5 million annually?
Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson found a suitor in the Panthers, and received a 2026 first-round pick and goalie Spencer Knight, while retaining $2.5 million of Jones’ salary each of the remaining seasons. The trade got the Blackhawks their goalie of the present and future in Knight, and provided them with another first-round pick for 2026, extending a streak of multiple first-round picks dating to 2022.
What went wrong? There was only nominal improvement after one of the more aggressive free agency windows of any team last offseason. They had 22 wins through 78 games, and though they trimmed their goal differential from minus-111 in 2023-24 to minus-74, it was still a season of frustration that peaked with the firing of coach Luke Richardson after 26 games, replacing him with interim coach Anders Sorensen.
Keys to the offseason: Does Sorensen get the full-time coaching job, or do the Blackhawks go in another direction? There’s also a discussion about what to do with Ryan Donato, who led the team in goals this season. Donato is a pending unrestricted free agent, who is having the best season of his career. The Blackhawks obviously have the cap space, but might it be better spent elsewhere?
Once they have agreed upon new deals for their four-player restricted free agent class that includes Philipp Kurashev and Arvid Soderblom, the Blackhawks could use the remaining money while having one eye on what lies ahead after the 2025-26 season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Next season will be a crucial one, mainly because another season without significant progress could prompt the front office to face bigger questions; after all, the Blackhawks are looking to reach the 70-point plateau for the first time since 2019-20.
So, what does the future look like? Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar and Knight, who are all central to their future plans, are going to be entering the final years of their respective deals. Bedard and Nazar are coming off their entry-level contracts, and Knight would be seeking his third deal — but his first as a No. 1 goalie.
Projected cap space: $22.98 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (NYR), 4th (TB), 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (STL)
What went right? Detroit showed its tenacity and resilience multiple times this season. The Red Wings overcame a slow start by leaning into a coaching change — from Derek Lalonde to Todd McLellan — that ignited the team’s December surge into a playoff spot. Detroit fell in and out of contention until February and looked ready to go on a run. Leading that charge was captain Dylan Larkin — with 29 goals this season — and Lucas Raymond, who leads Detroit in points with 75. Raymond’s development has been especially positive for Detroit and signals how he can continue carrying their offense into the future. The Red Wings also must feel good about being buoyed by a fourth-ranked power play (27.6%).
What went wrong? The Red Wings’ defensive play has been a hindrance for years. This season was no exception. Detroit gave up the 12th-most goals against per game (3.14), while ranking 23rd in scoring (2.81). That’s a tough combination to overcome. The Red Wings’ putrid penalty kill was also worst in the league (69.6%), another indication of their defensive deficiencies.
GM Steve Yzerman didn’t do much at the trade deadline to address any of the Red Wings’ problems, and Yzerman’s continued failure to add impact players in free agency is showing in how Detroit continues to stop short of reaching the playoffs. The Red Wings need consistency, and a strong defensive structure players buy into and can execute. There wasn’t enough of it this season to get Detroit out of its nine-year playoff drought.
Keys to the offseason: Yzerman isn’t one for making wild moves. But even he must be open to trying something new. There are internal choices to make, including on key RFAs Albert Johansson and Elmer Soderblom, and veterans Patrick Kane and Alex Lyon are both pending UFAs. How drastic Yzerman gets in terms of personnel turnover could foretell where Detroit goes from here.
The Red Wings need more scoring and have been top-heavy in that respect, relying on Larkin, Raymond and Alex DeBrincat for a large chunk of their output. Improving depth there, with proven defense-minded talent, will help the Red Wings keep up with their Atlantic rivals. Generally boosting the blue line wouldn’t hurt, either.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Detroit has playoff potential. They’ve shown it repeatedly. The Red Wings’ goal going into next season should be as contenders for the postseason. The question is whether Yzerman provides Detroit with more resources to get there.
Projected cap space: $17.26 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TB), 1st (VGK), 2nd, 2nd (TB), 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th (COL)
What went right? Their prospects. Of note, Matthew Wood averaged more than a point per game at the University of Minnesota before signing a professional contract. Joey Willis went from scoring 29 goals in his first two OHL seasons combined to having 27 goals this season. At the NHL level, Justin Barron, Zachary L’Heureux and Fedor Svechkov had expanded ice time.
What went wrong? Everything else. They went from being a playoff team that spent big in free agency to get Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei and Luke Schenn to having the third-worst record in the NHL. They were consistently disconnected. They are sixth in shots per game, but last in goals per game. They have one of the top 10 penalty kills yet gave up the seventh-most goals per game.
Keys to the offseason: With three first-round picks and more than $17 million in cap space, the Preds have options — especially if their first-round pick becomes the No. 1 pick via the draft lottery. But the Predators are trying to find a way that allows them to win now and in the future. It’s why they began shifting course toward playing young players after a poor start to the season. Now it’s all about strengthening that plan as they seek to recover from one of the more trying seasons in franchise history.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Preds can go in a number of directions. They entered the 2023-24 season as a team on the rise and made the playoffs. They entered 2024-25 as a team that could be in the conference finals discussion before ending up in the lottery. If they aren’t in the playoff mix next spring, there will be some big questions for the front office to answer.
Projected cap space: $28.90 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The Islanders showed determination by putting themselves into a contending position this season, particularly during an 11-3-0 run through January ahead of the 4 Nations Face-Off break. They benefited from some terrific individual performances along the way, most notably from Bo Horvat (with a team-leading 54 points) and Anders Lee (pacing New York with 28 goals).
Noah Dobson continued to show why he’s one of the league’s burgeoning stars on the back end and Alexander Romanov appears increasingly comfortable in his role. GM Lou Lamoriello also deserves credit for the tidy trade of Brock Nelson, which primarily netted New York (among other things) a first-round pick in 2026 NHL draft and promising prospect in Calum Ritchie.
What went wrong? The Islanders failed to truly excel in any category. They’re 25th in the scoring (averaging 2.77 goals per game) and gave up the 13th-most goals against (3.14), with a putrid, 31st-ranked power play (13.1%) and equally awful penalty kill (72.0%). Losing Mathew Barzal to injury for all but 30 games this season certainly took its toll in basically every respect. Starting goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been fine (with a .905 save percentage) but hardly the spectacular figure he was in helping New York reach the playoffs in recent seasons.
The Islanders didn’t have enough difference-makers, and Lamoriello did not bring anyone on board before the trade deadline. In fact, Lamoriello held onto guys such as Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Kyle Palmieri — a pending UFA — and seemingly missed out on a chance to add draft assets for a much-needed overhaul. By the time head coach Patrick Roy was publicly calling out forward Anthony Duclair and subsequently seeing Duclair take a leave of absence from the team, it was clear how tensions were boiling over.
Keys to the offseason: New York must at least consider taking a big swing. But is Lamoriello going to do that? The Islanders should have about $28 million in cap space to use for next season, and they’ve got a couple of high draft picks. It’s time to decide though what direction the franchise is headed. Can Lamoriello steer this group back to contending status? Or is a rebuild on deck?
There are also critical personnel decisions to make. The Islanders have a large collection of pending RFAs, including Dobson, Romanov, Scott Perunovich, and Adam Boqvist. Who New York keeps will have a major impact on their blue line. The Islanders again need to address their scoring depth. Barzal’s absence absolutely hurt New York. Shoring up the offense so it can withstand injury will go a long way. But step one is getting honest about where the organization is right now, and whether they keep pushing to compete in the Metro or take a step back and retool.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Islanders sputtered this season after making consecutive playoff appearances — both with first-round exits. Unless there’s some significant changes in the offseason, one-and-done in the postseason is about as good as New York can expect.
Projected cap space: $9.67 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 3rd (SEA), 4th (ANA), 4th (COL), 5th (MIN), 6th, 6th (SEA), 7th
What went right? New York didn’t need any added distractions this season, so the fact GM Chris Drury was able to offload underperforming former captain Jacob Trouba early was a shrewd move and kept the Rangers from dwelling on that particular problem all season. The Kaapo Kakko trade was a necessary swap as well that was swiftly handled. And bringing on J.T. Miller was, at least, an attempt to give New York a needed boost up front.
Meanwhile, New York saw growth from some of its young players, especially Will Cuylle (with a career-high 20 goals and 43 points this season). Artemi Panarin has done his part to lead the Rangers on offense (37 goals and 87 points) and Adam Fox anchored the blue line with trademark efficiency.
What went wrong? Oh boy. Are the Rangers this season’s biggest disappointment? It’s hard to argue otherwise. Last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners are a shadow of their former (114-point) selves. All the previous characteristics New York displayed as regular-season champions evaporated. The Rangers lacked consistency (they haven’t won three games in a row since November), veteran contributions (Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been particularly lackluster), a functional power play (ranked 27th at 17.6%) and failed time and again to show any sort of resiliency (they have won five games all season when trailing by one in the third period).
The lack of urgency and determination that elevated New York teams of the past has been missing. But why? Was it the rumored locker room issues? Has coach Peter Laviolette’s message been falling on deaf ears? Whatever the reason, New York never truly put its game together. To be officially eliminated from the postseason in a dispiriting 7-3 loss to Carolina on Saturday was a fitting salvo in a lost season.
Keys to the offseason: Can Laviolette survive to coach another season? That’s question No. 1 — and a bafflingly one to even be considering given he led the Rangers to their best regular season the season before. But it seems inevitable New York is going to make drastic changes after this clunker of a season.
Next, Drury must assess this Rangers’ core and figure out who to build around, and who to move out. The way Kreider and Zibanejad have struggled could lead Drury to find them new homes. And New York’s blue line is probably in need of a redo given the Rangers gave up the 14th-most goals against (3.10) and that’s with one of the league’s better goalie tandems in Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick. It’s not as if New York has to tear it all down. Drury must identify where the biggest leaks this season came from and do what’s necessary to patch the holes.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: New York can easily be a playoff team again next season. But it will require some form of change. To stand pat would send the wrong message about how poorly the Rangers performed this season. A chip on the shoulder will help New York get back to its potential.
Projected cap space: $25.64 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (COL), 1st (EDM), 2nd, 2nd (ANA), 2nd (CGY), 2nd (CBJ), 3rd, 5th, 5th (CAR), 6th
What went right? Philadelphia had its moments. The arrival of Matvei Michkov signaled the start of a new era for the Flyers in which Michkov — a 20-year-old dynamo leading all NHL rookies with 24 goals — has seemingly unlimited potential to drive their offense into the future. And Philadelphia has other young players — such as last year’s No. 13 pick Jett Luchanko — to be excited about too after his brief NHL audition.
The Flyers’ old guard wasn’t all bad, either. Travis Konecny had another strong season with a career high in points ahead of his long-term extension starting next season. Ultimately, Philadelphia can’t stay in a rebuild mode forever and it was positive to see GM Danny Briere actually make some moves — such as trading Joel Farabee and Scott Laughton and firing coach John Tortorella — to help kick-start Philadelphia into 2025-26.
What went wrong? The Flyers were too big a mess in too many key categories. Philadelphia’s collection of goaltenders produced a woeful .888 save percentage at even strength, the worst recorded by a team since 2009-10. Samuel Ersson wasn’t the reliable No. 1 the Flyers needed, and it showed too often in how games slipped away. Philadelphia’s putrid power play was another problem — 30th in the league (14.9%) — and a 24th-ranked offense hasn’t been much help. By the time Philadelphia had lost 11 of 12 through mid-March, it was no surprise Tortorella was gone. Something is clearly still missing in Philadelphia.
Keys to the offseason: First, Philadelphia needs a head coach. Briere will decide quickly whether that’s via removing the interim tag from Brad Shaw or a new addition. There’s much work to be done with the next permanent bench boss in place.
Philadelphia absolutely must capitalize in the draft. They hold three first-round picks and four second-round choices. There’s a chance if the Flyers draft high enough that one of those first-rounders steps into their lineup at some point next season. Briere must be smart in how he cashes in on that capital. Then it’s all about development. Philadelphia doesn’t project to be overly active in free agency given the amount of talent it already has in the NHL and waiting in the wings. What the Flyers need are for those players to take steps forward so when training camp comes around there is serious competition for spots, and it sets up Philadelphia for a competitive season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: This is the fifth consecutive season Philadelphia has missed the postseason. The Flyers must at least challenge well into April for a spot next season. Briere has been patient with this group continuing to grow and it’s about time those investments paid dividends.
Projected cap space: $24.58 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NYR), 2nd (WSH), 3rd, 3rd (MIN), 3rd (OTT), 4th, 5th (CHI), 5th (NYR), 6th, 7th
What went right? Pittsburgh can always count on Sidney Crosby to breathe some sort of life into their season, and the captain delivered again with a 30-goal campaign that suggests the 37-year-old isn’t slowing down. And that’s a great thing — because the Penguins’ recent youth movement might signal brighter days ahead. GM Kyle Dubas brought up Rutger McGroarty — acquired via trade earlier this season — and Ville Koivunen to get Pittsburgh’s next wave ready with some NHL experience. Smart decision. The Penguins needed to end the season on a high note, and showcasing what the franchise has coming seemed invigorating for old and new skaters alike.
What went wrong? It was death by a thousand cuts in Pittsburgh. The Penguins don’t have the depth to compete with other Eastern Conference powerhouses — outside of their top line (with Crosby, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust mostly), there wasn’t enough consistent scoring. Even Evgeni Malkin struggled with only 15 goals this season.
That dearth of scoring issue was amplified by the Penguins’ problems keeping pucks out of their net. Tristan Jarry flamed out as the team’s expected No. 1 goaltender, being demoted to the AHL along with his 3.31 goals-against average and .884 save percentage through mid-January. To be fair, Jarry (and the Penguins other netminders) got no help from a leaky blue line that surrounded the second-most goals per game (3.58) this season. It would have challenged Pittsburgh to overcome its issues in only one phase of the game, let alone all three.
Keys to the offseason: Pittsburgh doesn’t appear close to firing coach Mike Sullivan, so that allows the Penguins to hit the ground running again in figuring out how to capitalize on its youth movement. McGroarty and Koivunen will be counted on to compete for slots in training camp.
Then it’s on Dubas to address the Penguins’ lack of scoring with some strategic veteran additions. The market should play out in Pittsburgh’s favor there — and offering the incentive of potentially skating alongside Crosby never hurts in a negotiation. And the Penguins’ defense? It can’t stand as is. If Dubas is still trying to avoid a full-scale rebuild, then it’s crucial to use this offseason to find roster balance between the Penguins’ present and future additions. Some degree of outside help is required to make that happen.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: It’s not reasonable to say Pittsburgh makes it back to the playoffs — unless there are some key changes. If the Penguins rightly address their leaks, then there’s talent enough to put Pittsburgh back as a playoff contender. But that’s a mighty large question as this season comes to a close.
Projected cap space: $42.19 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (DAL), 2nd, 2nd (OTT), 3rd (COL), 4th (STL), 4th (WPG), 5th (COL), 7th (NJ)
What went right? The blueprint for the future. Star rookie center Macklin Celebrini leads the team in points, and fellow star rookie forward Will Smith is fifth. They used the trade deadline to add a pair of first-round picks; they’ll have two first-rounders in 2025 and again in 2026, continuing a trend since 2023. Even though they’re going to finish with the NHL’s worst record for a consecutive season, the Sharks have already shown some sense of improvement given they went from a minus-150 goal difference to minus-98 entering the final week of the regular season.
What went wrong? Well, there was quite a bit. But that’s to be expected whenever a team is in the midst of a rebuild.
The Sharks were in the bottom 10 in goals per game, the power play, scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60 and high-danger chances per 60, which explains their offensive struggles. On defense, they gave up the most goals per game, had the worst penalty kill, and were in the bottom 10 in most scoring chances allowed per 60, most shots allowed per 60 and most high-danger chances allowed per 60.
Keys to the offseason: Do they get the No. 1 pick for a consecutive year? Or will it be No. 2 or No. 3? Whatever happens, this will be the third straight draft cycle and the fourth time in the past five in which the Sharks have a lottery pick. Picking that high along with having a second first-round pick will certainly advance their rebuild.
Then there’s the fact they’ll have more than $42 million in cap space, which can be used to address their roster — with the caveat that the Sharks might not be major players in free agency for at least a few more years.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Continuing to watch the progress made by Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund, Celebrini and Smith, among others, is going to be the priority. The Sharks will seek to make more improvements while further developing those franchise cornerstones in Ryan Warsofsky’s second year behind the bench. But there’s also a possibility the Sharks could either sign players in free agency or move on from players on their current roster ahead of the deadline to add even more draft capital for their future plans.
Projected cap space: $21.75 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (TOR), 4th, 4th (DAL), 5th, 7th
What went right? All three of the trades they made this season. Moving on from Will Borgen led to them getting a one-time No. 2 overall pick in Kaapo Kakko, plus draft capital. At the trade deadline, they acquired a pair of first-round picks in 2026 and 2027 in exchange for Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde. Parting ways with Brandon Tanev netted them a second-round pick in the 2027 draft. Kakko has 10 goals and 29 points in 46 games for the Kraken as part of a season in which he set a career high with 43 points.
What went wrong? Between their underlying defensive metrics and the fact they sent Philipp Grubauer to the AHL? It wasn’t the most consistent season for the Kraken when it came to goal prevention. Having a new coaching staff included the departure of assistant coach Jay Leach, who played a crucial role in the Kraken’s defensive identity. This season, they were in the bottom 10 in shots allowed per 60 minutes, scoring chances allowed per 60 and high-danger chances allowed per 60. The underperformance from Grubauer didn’t help, and in fact, Joey Daccord (who began as the backup) was one of their more consistent performers.
Keys to the offseason: Dan Bylsma’s coaching staff helped pull the Kraken from the bottom five in goals per game in 2023-24 to being around league average this season. Could they find a defensive version of that solution heading into 2025-26, with the idea that it might provide the Kraken with the consistency that has eluded them as a franchise? That is one of the most significant questions facing the Kraken now that they have missed the playoffs in three of their first four seasons.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Kraken must be in contention for a wild-card spot (at minimum), or there will be some big questions to answer for the front office at this time next year.
Projected cap space: $21.53 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
What went right? Quite a bit. The trade during draft weekend for franchise defenseman Mikhail Sergachev set the stage for a season in which the franchise made real strides. Before moving to Salt Lake City, the Arizona Coyotes had one 80-point season since 2014-15. The Utah Hockey Club had 84 points with four games left. The team was still fighting for a playoff berth entering the final two weeks of the regular season, which was another step forward for the core — and proves that bigger things could be on the horizon.
What went wrong? Overtime and shootouts. Entering the final two weeks of the regular season, only the Flames and Canucks had more overtime losses than Utah, two teams that were also chasing a Western Conference wild-card spot. But losing those 12 games in overtime or a shootout demonstrates how Utah was close in many games. If it can get on the winning end of those extra-time coin flips next season, the results will be different too.
Keys to the offseason: Remember how the Coyotes were hamstrung by a need to be miserly with cap space? The Utah Hockey Club doesn’t have that issue. That much was made clear last offseason when GM Bill Armstrong invested $22 million for each of the next two seasons in bolstering the defensive unit. Utah will have more than $21 million in space this summer, which is enough to improve a roster that could seriously challenge for a playoff spot. A top priority? Improving an offense that was 21st in goals per game, with a power play that was 15th.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Making the playoffs. It’s really that simple. Utah has a core that has gone through its growing pains. It’s a group that has shown it can make progress from one year to the next. Nearly the entire roster is either under contract or team control for next season, and the front office has enough cap space to add the sort of players who could help clinch a playoff berth in the club’s second season in Salt Lake.
Projected cap space: $15.08 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd (SJ), 4th (OTT), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Despite all the inconsistencies, the numerous injuries to key players, and the J.T. Miller-Elias Pettersson friction, the Canucks were still in the hunt for a wild-card berth entering the final two weeks of the regular season. Yes, there were those who had strong individual seasons, including reigning Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes and Pius Suter, who had his first 20-goal effort and more than 40 points. But those performances could only get the Canucks so far, in a season in which they will miss the playoffs after winning their division and coming within a game of the conference finals a year earlier.
What went wrong? All those inconsistencies, those numerous injuries and the Miller-Pettersson friction.
One detail that speaks to those inconsistencies is that the Canucks were among the top five in the NHL in terms of fewest shots allowed per 60 minutes and scoring chances allowed per 60 — and yet were 19th in goals allowed per game. It’s what made the need for scoring depth even more crucial. This became more evident in the wake of trading Miller to the Rangers and trying to find ways to replace a forward with three consecutive seasons of more than 80 points.
Keys to the offseason: What happens to head coach Rick Tocchet? Does he stay on his one-year option as a bridge to a longer-term contract? Or could he be swayed to leave, which would then leave the Canucks searching for a fourth coach since 2020?
After the coaching situation is resolved, what happens to Brock Boeser? A six-time 20-goal scorer, he’s a pending UFA who could command a significant payday should he reach the open market. Do the Canucks ink him to a long-term deal?
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Add the Canucks to the list of teams whose situation could become clearer once free agency ends. They have most of their team either under contract or team control for next season. But two of their three leading goal scorers — Boeser and Suter — are pending UFAs, whereas there is also uncertainty surrounding Tocchet.
Getting those questions answered along with addressing their other concerns could provide a stronger grasp for how the Canucks navigate next season. But a return to the postseason is certainly within grasp.
Will Ohio State claim the Big Ten title in 2025, or will Penn State finally break through in 2025?
The college football season is less than a month away, and it looks like these two perennial Big Ten powers will have the best shot to not just win the conference, but the College Football Playoff, too. But it won’t be without stiff competition from Oregon, which won the league last season.
In addition to the Big Ten’s playoff race, eyes will be on UCLA and Nico Iamaleava following his exit from Tennessee.
We get you caught up on the Big Ten by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, power rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFP outlook
Should be in: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon. Defending national champion Ohio State always will be penciled into the CFP field, even after losing 14 NFL draft picks, tied for the most in team history. The Buckeyes have wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, considered the nation’s best overall player, as well as safety Caleb Downs, arguably the No. 1 defender. But it’s Penn State, not Ohio State, that enters the fall as possibly the Big Ten’s strongest national contender. The Nittany Lions replace less than the other three teams that reached last year’s CFP semifinals, as they return quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and several standout defenders. Oregon is amazingly being overlooked a bit after winning the Big Ten in its debut season and becoming the only FBS team to finish the regular season at 13-0. The Ducks lost 10 NFL draft picks but will return a talented defensive front seven and add several top transfers and recruits.
In the running: Illinois, Michigan, Indiana. Illinois returns the core players from its first 10-win team since 2001, and it could become this year’s version of Indiana, especially with more explosiveness on offense and stout line play. If the Illini can navigate September road tests against Duke and, yes, Indiana, look out for Bret Bielema’s squad. Michigan hopes to rejoin the CFP mix after its strong finish to last season, leaning on a talented defensive front and possibly incoming freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. Indiana largely will be counted out, but not here, as the team retained several All-Big Ten players from the historic CFP team, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen from the portal. Iowa occasionally found itself in the four-team CFP mix and could take a leap if transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski elevates the offense.
Long shots: Nebraska, USC, Minnesota, Washington. Nebraska has had a tough time merely making bowl appearances in the Big Ten, but could be primed for a jump in wins, as quarterback Dylan Raiola returns to lead the squad. The Huskers are also helped by a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Oregon, and has no true road game until Oct. 11. USC is still seeking its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley and could enter the mix if it plays better away from home, where it dropped four games by seven points or fewer. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is also seeking better results in one-score games and told ESPN that the CFP “isn’t a pipe dream.” Washington is only two years removed from a national title game appearance and brings back a team with upside, particularly dynamic young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. — Adam Rittenberg and Jake Trotter
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s Big Ten conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two huge nonconference games — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. That second part is key, as neither Penn State (two) nor Ohio State (three) have many projected close games on the docket.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and Michigan at Oklahoma (Sept. 6). The biggest games of Weeks 1 and 2 are Big Ten vs. SEC affairs, though they take on different flavors. Texas-Ohio State is a rematch of last year’s delightful CFP semifinal, in which Jack Sawyer’s late scoop-and-score ended a Longhorns comeback attempt. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes will almost certainly start out in the AP top 5. Meanwhile, Michigan and Oklahoma are looking for ways back into the top 10, and both will bring remodeled offenses to the table.
Illinois at Indiana (Sept. 20). If things play out as forecasted and we have two different races going on in the Big Ten — the big names vying for the conference title and the pool of 14 other teams fighting among each other for another playoff spot — then this is the biggest Illinois-Indiana game of all time. The loser will have to be just about perfect to get to 10-2 and a potential bid.
Oregon at Penn State (Sept. 27). The Week 5 slate is overloaded with big games, but this will almost certainly be the biggest. The Ducks and Nittany Lions will almost certainly be a combined 7-0 at this point, as neither team will have played a top-50 team.
USC at Illinois (Sept. 27) and Indiana at Iowa (Sept. 27). Like I said, there’s just way too much going on in Week 5. Goodness.
Michigan at USC (Oct. 11). By this point, Michigan will have already played at Oklahoma and Nebraska and could be 5-0 and in the top 10, or 3-2 and flailing. USC will have just visited Illinois and could be 5-0 or flailing as well. This game will be huge, for any of about 17 different reasons.
Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1). In terms of combined SP+ ratings, this is the single biggest game of the 2025 regular season.
Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8). Whether PSU is coming off of a win or a loss in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will desperately need to move on and avoid a hangover.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29). Proof that even in a 12-team CFP era, a rivalry loss can send you into a spectacular, existential tailspin. (And proof that you might be able to steer out of it a little better now.)
Three freshmen to watch
Malik Washington, QB, Maryland
Washington already arrived on campus facing immense expectations after the four-star Maryland native opted to stay home and attend the school he grew up idolizing. His spring game showing — he went 12-of-18 for 170 yards and two touchdowns — did little to dispel any optimism he could become the face of a program resurrection in College Park. At 6-foot-5, 231 pounds, Washington is a true dual-threat with arm talent and mobility. His accuracy and ability to change arm angles should mesh well in an RPO scheme. Carving out a path to contention in the Big Ten won’t be easy, and he’ll need to beat out UCLA transfer Justyn Martin for the starting gig, but Washington has game-changing tools.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
No freshman in college football faces more scrutiny than Underwood, who arrived in Ann Arbor as the highest-ranked player in the class and signed a multi-million dollar NIL deal after a lengthy pursuit by his hometown Wolverines. Underwood’s spring was more solid than exceptional, and he went 12-of-26 for 187 yards in the spring game, which included an 88-yard touchdown, but also a pair of sacks and several overthrows. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore hasn’t named a starter and has been consistent that Underwood is battling with Jadyn Davis, Jake Garcia, and Mikey Keene for the role, but Michigan’s offense has its highest ceiling with Underwood at the helm. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Underwood combines raw speed, clean footwork in the pocket and natural arm strength. The ball jumps out of his hand and he’s adept at keeping plays alive on the run to move the chains. It might require some patience — which isn’t easy in Ann Arbor — but Underwood has the ceiling of a dominant, Heisman Trophy-contending signal caller.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon
Moore arrived in Eugene as the highest-graded high school receiver ESPN has evaluated since 2020, then dazzled Oregon teammates and coaches alike during the Ducks’ spring practices. Moore won the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game MVP and totaled more than 4,000 receiving yards at famed Duncanville High School in Texas. He’s also a decorated track star, and his blazing speed and savvy route-running ability should find a home in Oregon’s offense on Day 1. Moore’s offseason work has only helped solidify the high expectations. He could quickly become a reliable option for new starting QB Dante Moore, and his role in the offense only becomes more important with Evan Stewart set to miss at least a significant portion of the season with a knee injury. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Cal | Top 100 rank: 4
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: Mendoza was an incredible find for Cal, an under-the-radar three-star out of Miami who was committed to Yale until the Bears extended a late offer. He developed into one of the best young QBs in the country after taking over as Cal’s starter for their final eight games in 2023. As a sophomore, he was the ACC’s third-leading passer with 3,004 passing yards and raised his completion percentage to 69% (second in the ACC) while scoring 18 total touchdowns with just six interceptions over 11 games. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 41 sacks last season but overcame inconsistent protection to have a really productive year with strong performances against Miami and Auburn and a 98-yard game-winning drive to beat rival Stanford. Mendoza is viewed as one of the most promising QBs in the country by several personnel departments. — Olson
Scout’s take: Mendoza is one of the most undervalued players at the position in college football. He’s 6-5, a great athlete and is tough as nails. He was sacked a lot and kept getting back up. Mendoza can make all of the throws and is a sneaky, crafty athlete. — Luginbill
What he brings to Indiana: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti values production over potential when it comes to recruiting the transfer portal. He’s getting plenty of both with Mendoza as his successor to Kurtis Rourke. Mendoza is looking to take his game to another level in the Big Ten and help make the Hoosiers a contender again in Year 2 under Cignetti. — Olson
Transferring from: Tennessee | Top 100 rank: 5
HT: 6-6 | WT: 220 | Class: Redshirt freshman
Background: Well, this was a stunner. While there were rumors of discontent in late December at the winter portal deadline, it was still shocking that Iamaleava left a College Football Playoff team and hit the open market during the spring in search of a better deal than the one he had with the Vols. Tennessee invested a ton of money in Iamaleava and even successfully fought off an attempted NCAA investigation into the seven-figure agreement he struck with the Vols as a five-star high school recruit. He had an awful lot of hype to live up to as a redshirt freshman starter in 2024 and put together a solid year, throwing for 2,616 yards, completing 64% of his passes with 22 total touchdowns and nine turnovers while leading the Vols to 10 wins. Iamaleava closed out the season with a rough CFP performance, completing 14 of 31 passes for 104 yards in a 42-17 first-round loss to eventual national champ Ohio State, and still has plenty of room to grow. But it is exceptionally rare that a QB of his caliber becomes available in the spring. Iamaleava is looking to keep progressing and play up to his first-round potential. — Olson
Scout’s take: There is no debating that Iamaleava is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in college football. He was highly coveted out of high school because of his stature, arm strength and athletic ability. During his one season as a starter, he showed flashes of brilliance but also mediocrity. He threw 19 touchdowns, but four of the nine touchdowns in SEC play came against Vanderbilt and seven came against Chattanooga and UTEP. Consistency is where he has to improve. He has the arm strength and overall talent to be a terrific vertical deep ball passer, but he has been wildly inconsistent in terms of accuracy in that regard. There are still tools here, but he will likely be playing on a team that is less talented than the one he just left. Meaning: He’s going to have to be better than he has ever been. — Luginbill
What he brings to UCLA: This ordeal might have played out perfectly for the Bruins. They’re getting a potential top-10 quarterback on a reduced contract who will generate a lot of attention for this program entering coach DeShaun Foster’s second year. Iamaleava’s arrival will cost them App State transfer QB Joey Aguilar, who reentered the portal after going through spring practice with the Bruins and landed at Tennessee. The challenge going forward for Iamaleava is learning OC Tino Sunseri’s system and winning over his new teammates this summer, but he’ll certainly be motivated after his split with the Vols. — Olson
Transferring from: Nevada | Top 100 rank: 7
HT: 6-8 | WT: 309 | Class: Redshirt junior
Background: The massive pass protector was a three-year starter for the Wolf Pack primarily at left tackle and brings invaluable experience with more than 2,300 career snaps. He did not surrender a sack during his junior season and picked up honorable mention All-Mountain West recognition. World is viewed as a potential first-round draft pick by NFL scouts entering his final season of eligibility and is making the move up to the Power 4 to prove he merits that praise. — Olson
Scout’s take: World is a huge presence with very good pass pro skills at left tackle. He has added 42 pounds since high school and retained his initial quickness and flexibility. World does a terrific job riding defenders past the pocket with his length and mobility. He plays balanced with good feet and shows his basketball background mirroring defenders in his set. He’s not as effective versus the run. World’s pad level can get high, but he’s still very productive at washing defenders down to open run lanes. — Tucker
What he brings to Oregon: Offensive tackle was one of the critical portal needs for the Ducks. Ajani Cornelius graduating and Josh Conerly Jr. potentially going pro made adding starter-caliber tackles a priority for Oregon, and it was able to hold off Texas A&M and Nebraska in this battle. A one-year addition makes sense to help give the Ducks’ young big men more time to develop. — Olson
Numbers to know
4: The number of seasons it has been since defending national champion Ohio State won the Big Ten title, the Buckeyes’ longest drought since a six-year stretch from 1987 to 1992.
8: The number of Big Ten quarterbacks who were in the top 25 of the ESPN300 recruit rankings at some point in their high school careers, the most of any conference. Those QBs are Michigan’s Bryce Underwood (No. 1 in 2025), Oregon’s Dante Moore (No. 2 in 2023), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (No. 9 in 2024), Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair (No. 10 in 2025), Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola (No. 11 in 2024), USC’s Sam Huard (No. 16 in 2021), UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava (No. 23 in 2023) and Michigan’s Jake Garcia (No. 24 in 2021).
+200: Ohio State’s odds of winning the Big Ten championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for the Big Ten favorite in at least 15 years. Penn State is the second choice at +225. — ESPN Research
Power rankings
0:52
Should Penn State be the No. 1-ranked team in the country?
Heather Dinich joins “Get Up” to share why she believes Penn State should be the top-ranked team going into the new college football season.
If not this year, then when for the Nittany Lions? As other Big Ten powers sift through QB questions, Penn State features three-year starter Drew Allar, who has the makeup to be a first-round pick next spring. Throw in a dominant running game spearheaded by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a talented defense now led by veteran coordinator Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions have the pieces to win the Big Ten — and even the national title.
The defending national champions lost a record-tying 14 players to the NFL and must fill significant holes at quarterback and along both the offensive and defensive lines. But Ohio State also has arguably the nation’s best two players in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, other standouts such as wide receiver Carnell Tate and linebacker Sonny Styles, and notable transfers such as tight end Max Klare (Purdue). Never count out the Buckeyes.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dillion Gabriel, one of the most prolific QBs in recent college football history, is gone, leaving tantalizing former five-star recruit Dante Moore in charge of the Ducks’ offense. A season-ending knee injury to star wide receiver Evan Stewart stings. But Oregon still has enough on either side of the ball to defend its Big Ten title.
After winning 10 games for the first time since the Big Ten championship season of 2001, Illinois has its sights on the team’s first CFP appearance. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and outside linebacker Gabe Jacas are part of an impressive returning group that must navigate tricky September trips to Duke and Indiana before a home showdown with Ohio State on Oct. 11.
All eyes will be on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has already been turning heads in Ann Arbor with his work ethic and dual-threat abilities. The Wolverines have the running game and figure to be stout defensively once again. If Underwood can supercharge the passing attack, the Wolverines could be back in contention for a playoff spot.
How will Coach Cig (Curt Cignetti) follow a historic debut that featured a team-record 11 wins and a once unthinkable CFP appearance? Indiana retained All-Big Ten players on both sides of the ball, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen in the portal. The key for IU will be better line-of-scrimmage play in its biggest games, as the schedule doesn’t look nearly as favorable.
7. The Hawkeyes are banking that transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who won an FCS national title, can jumpstart a perennially moribund Iowa offense. Iowa’s offensive line, led by standout center Logan Jones and tackle Gennings Dunker, should be elite. If the defensive-minded Hawkeyes can finally find a way to put up points, they could be dangerous.
After reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016, Nebraska is targeting much bigger goals under third-year coach Matt Rhule. The Huskers have a favorable schedule with no true road games until Oct. 11 and no Ohio State or Oregon. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has had a full offseason to develop under playcaller Dana Holgorsen.
9. USC Trojans
The Trojans lost five games by one score last season, tied for the most in the FBS. Playing from ahead will be critical for the Trojans, who trailed in 11 of their 13 games in 2024. The defense under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn took a step forward last season, but the Trojans need more improvement — they still allowed 5.83 yards per play (15th in the Big Ten).
Could Minnesota be a wild-card CFP contender? “This isn’t a pipe dream,” coach P.J. Fleck told ESPN, pointing to a record in one-score games that, if improved, could elevate the team’s outlook. Minnesota has a solid defense, a potential two-way star in Koi Perich and will lean on first-year starting quarterback Drake Lindsey for a spark.
The Huskies are excited about the potential of sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr., who passed for 374 yards and totaled five touchdowns in Washington’s bowl loss to Louisville. If Williams builds off that performance, the Huskies could surprise offensively, with 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman flanking him in the backfield.
12. After a tough first year and a relatively quiet offseason, Michigan State could creep up on teams during coach Jonathan Smith’s second year. The Spartans made some key portal additions at offensive line and wide receiver to help second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Areas to improve include takeaways and better play on the road, where MSU was 1-4 in 2024.
13. Athan Kaliakmanis is back after becoming the first Rutgers QB since 2015 to pass for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Defensively, the pass rush could be a strength with the arrivals of transfers Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio), who were both all-conference performers. Rutgers ranked just 84th nationally with only 22 total sacks last season.
14. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have gone all-in on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Tennessee transfer whose return home could signal a shift in how UCLA will operate under coach DeShaun Foster. If Iamaleava meets expectations and a defense with many new players and coaches shines, UCLA could rise in these rankings after a season where it had wins against Iowa and Nebraska.
15. Injuries robbed any chance Wisconsin had of fielding a viable offense in 2024, as the Badgers ranked 102nd nationally in passing (197 yards per game) on the way to losing their final five games. The onus is now on transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) and new coordinator Jeff Grimes to turn that around.
16. After bottoming out on offense in 2024, Northwestern had its most successful winter transfer portal haul, which included quarterback Preston Stone (SMU), wide receiver Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State) and several linemen. The Wildcats face a huge opener at Tulane and several tricky Big Ten road contests, but bowl eligibility should be within sight.
Coach Mike Locksley recently admitted he lost the locker room in 2024 over which players to pay, as the Terrapins stumbled to a 1-8 Big Ten record. Maryland doesn’t have much coming back offensively, either, though keeping four-star QB Malik Washington in state has given the Terrapins an intriguing player to rebuild around. The true freshman is battling UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and redshirt freshman Khristian Martin for the starting QB job.
18. Barry Odom is back in the Power 4 following an impressive run at UNLV. He takes over a Purdue team with almost an entirely new roster and a schedule that includes Notre Dame and Ohio State. Moderate improvement is the goal for Odom, whose track record on defense and with personnel suggests better days are ahead. — Rittenberg, Trotter
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Alden Gonzalez
Max Muncy returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ lineup on Monday, Aaron Judge was back in the New York Yankees‘ batting order on Tuesday, and with that, the two teams that met in last year’s World Series — and had been underperforming to varying degrees in recent weeks — received valuable reinforcements for the stretch run.
They’re far from alone.
Now that the trade deadline has passed and less than two months remain in the regular season, contending teams throughout the sport are counting on key players returning from injury in the days and weeks ahead, hoping they might make the difference between missing out on October and winning it all. And given the landscape, which many consider as wide-open as ever, they just might.
Below is a look at some of the most impactful players on their way back.
Expected return date: The injury to Álvarez’s right hand has featured plenty of drama and required a lot of patience. The Astros initially diagnosed it as a muscle strain in early May and began the process of ramping him up by late June. Then came lingering pain, prompting a visit to a specialist and the revelation that the outfielder was dealing with a fractured bone. Perhaps, though, there is a light at the end of this tunnel. Álvarez resumed hitting off a tee and taking soft toss a couple weeks ago and hit on the field at the team’s spring training facility on Tuesday. The Astros are going to be really careful this time around, but there is hope he can help them down the stretch.
What he means to the team: The Astros lost Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker over the offseason and have received just 121 plate appearances from Álvarez — and a paltry slash line of .210/.306/.340 — yet they’re on pace for their eighth American League West title in nine years. You would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive development this season. When healthy, Álvarez is on par with Judge and Shohei Ohtani among the game’s most imposing hitters. Given how well the Astros have pitched, plugging Álvarez back into the middle of their lineup — with an ascending Jeremy Peña, a better-of-late Jose Altuve and what they hope is a rejuvenated Carlos Correa — could put them in the conversation for the best team in the AL, if not all baseball.
Expected return date: Right-hander Assad, out all year with a left oblique injury he reaggravated around late April, made his third rehab start on Wednesday, looking sharp while pitching into the fifth inning. His next step could be joining the rotation. Taillon is right behind him. The 33-year-old right-hander has been dealing with a right calf strain for a little more than a month but pitched three innings in a Triple-A rehab start on Sunday. He gave up seven runs, but he also came out of it feeling healthy. That’s all that matters at this point. Cubs starters not named Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga have combined for a 4.63 ERA this season. And at this point, there is no outside help coming.
What they mean to the team: The Cubs did not land the controllable front-line starter they desired before the trade deadline. The starter they did acquire, Michael Soroka, pitched two innings in his debut on Monday, then landed on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort. Now, the Cubs need to make up for what they lack in their rotation internally. Assad fashioned a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts last year and was effective both out of the rotation and in the bullpen in 2023. Taillon, a proven innings eater who consistently pounds the strike zone, is probably as good a complement to Boyd and Imanaga as the Cubs can get.
Expected return date: Bieber, who had Tommy John surgery, has not taken the mound in a major league game since April 2, 2024, but the former Cy Young Award winner’s return is approaching. The right-hander made his fifth rehab start — and first since being acquired by the Blue Jays — on Sunday, striking out six batters across five innings. He’ll make another start on Saturday, then perhaps one more after that. Then the Blue Jays will see if they can get the front-line starter they envisioned when they unloaded promising pitching prospect Khal Stephen to pry Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians last week.
What he means to the team: The Blue Jays are counting on several offensive contributors returning in the not-too-distant future, including George Springer, Andrés Giménez and, they hope, Anthony Santander. But Bieber is the wild card. If he’s close to what he was even after winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020 — a guy who put up a 3.13 ERA and struck out 459 batters in 436⅔ innings from 2021 to 2024 — he can join Kevin Gausman and José Berríos to form a really solid rotation trio in October. But the initial returns from Tommy John surgery can be tricky. Just ask Sandy Alcántara.
Expected return date: Bohm took a sinker to his left side on July 12 and later learned he had suffered a fractured rib, but the 29-year-old third baseman has been hitting ground balls and taking batting practice and will now venture out on a rehab assignment. He could return to the Phillies’ lineup this month. Nola went on the injured list for the first time in eight years because of a sprained right ankle in mid-May, then was diagnosed with a stress reaction in one of his ribs a month later. Now, Nola is finally on his way back. He went 3⅔ innings in his second rehab start on Wednesday and will make one or two more before rejoining the rotation.
What they mean to the team: Bohm and Nola have served as catalysts while these Phillies have ascended to near the top of the sport in recent years, and it’s hard not to see them having a massive say — good or bad — in October. The Phillies need them to be healthy, but they also need them to be better. Bohm was slugging just .391 before going down. Nola, meanwhile, carried a 6.16 ERA through his first nine starts — one year after receiving Cy Young votes. The Phillies’ rotation has been one of the game’s best this season, and it can handle an ineffective Nola if it absolutely has to. But the offense needs Bohm’s production.
Expected return date: Burger is navigating his second stint on the IL this season, this time because of a left quad strain, but he has played in a couple of rehab games and could return before the end of the Rangers’ current homestand. Carter, an outfielder, was shut down with back spasms on Saturday, and though there’s currently no reason to believe it’s a serious injury, it’s worrisome when you consider how back issues plagued him in 2024.
What they mean to the team: The 2025 Rangers do everything well except the one thing they felt they could do best: hit. And while the offense has been a lot better lately, the Rangers could use more production from Burger and Carter in hopes of grabbing a playoff spot in a wide-open AL. Burger has slashed just .228/.259/.401 in his first year in Texas, but could at the very least platoon with fellow first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who has been a godsend since signing a minor league deal in early July. Carter, a rookie sensation during the stretch run of the team’s championship season in 2023, was slashing just .238/.323/.381.
Expected return date: Gasser, the 26-year-old left-hander who excelled in his first five major league starts last year, is in the late stages of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. His fourth rehab start came Sunday, during which he threw 16 pitches in the game and 19 in the bullpen. The Brewers are building him back up as a starter, so he still needs to increase his pitch count. But he’s on track to join a loaded Brewers pitching staff before the end of August. So is rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski, who suffered a bruised left shin last week but isn’t expected to miss much more than the minimum amount of time. Outfielder Jackson Chourio, who landed on the IL with a hamstring strain last week, could be back by the end of the month, too.
What he means to the team: The Brewers acquired Gasser as part of the package that sent former closer Josh Hader to San Diego in summer 2022 and watched him shine as a rookie in 2024, putting up a 2.57 ERA with one walk in 28 innings. But then his ulnar collateral ligament gave out, triggering a long rehab that is finally reaching its conclusion. The Brewers see him as a starter long term, but there might not be room for him in the 2025 rotation. If that’s the case, he can be an impact lefty out of the bullpen. The Brewers acquired only one traditional reliever in Shelby Miller before the trade deadline, largely because they believe starters like Gasser, Chad Patrick and Tobias Myers can help them out of the bullpen when it matters most.
Expected return date: It has been a long, slow climb back for Greene and the right groin strain he suffered, for a second time, on June 3. The right-hander seemed to be approaching a return in July, but he experienced lingering pain and had to shut it down once more. Now, though, his return seems imminent. Greene navigated a third rehab start on Sunday, during which he struck out seven batters in 3⅓ innings, and is scheduled to ramp up to 80 pitches on Friday. After that, he could rejoin the rotation. With Nick Lodolo shut down with a blister that materialized on his left index finger in his Monday start, the Reds need Greene now more than ever.
What he means to the team: Here’s what Greene has done since the start of last July: 1.92 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 133 strikeouts, 30 walks, 112⅔ innings. Those are the numbers of not just a traditional front-line starter, but of one of the best pitchers in the game. The Reds have hung around all year, getting better starting pitching than they probably anticipated, but less offense than they hoped. They’ve underperformed their projections, but they still sit just three games back of a playoff spot. Greene — and Lodolo, who might require only a minimum stint on the injured list — could make the difference.
Expected return date: For the better part of two months, questions swirled around the state of King’s health and whether he would pitch at all this season. The 30-year-old right-hander was dealing with a thoracic nerve issue in his right shoulder, an exceedingly rare injury for a pitcher. He simply had to wait for the pain to subside, with no idea when it would. Now, though, he is on the doorstep of returning to the major leagues. King threw 61 pitches in 3⅓ innings in a rehab start on Sunday, allowing six runs but also striking out five batters. His next start is expected to come this weekend against the Boston Red Sox.
What he means to the team: Padres general manager A.J. Preller put together an epic trade deadline, upgrading at catcher, adding two competent bats to the lineup and, most notably, landing another impact arm for the bullpen. His starting-pitching additions, though, were depth players; JP Sears and Nestor Cortes are not expected to make playoff starts. What the Padres need is for King — their Game 1 starter in last year’s postseason, their Opening Day starter this year and owner of a 2.59 ERA in his first 10 starts — to join Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta in the rotation to truly make this one of the most well-rounded teams in the sport. It seems that will happen.
Expected return date: Kopech, nursing a right knee injury, has been throwing bullpen sessions and is expected to be activated once he’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list in late August. Left-hander Scott, dealing with elbow inflammation, has also been throwing off a mound and doesn’t seem far off, either. Yates’ situation, though, is a little hazier. The 38-year-old right-hander had been dealing with lower back pain for a couple weeks before landing on the IL at the start of August. There is no timetable for his return, though it seems possible that he, too, can be back before the end of the month.
What they mean to the team: The Dodgers have once again absorbed a slew of injuries throughout their staff, having already deployed 38 pitchers — one year after setting a franchise record by using 40. Their bullpen has led the majors in innings for most of this season. At the deadline, though, the front office acted conservatively, adding just one bullpen arm, right-hander Brock Stewart, along with reserve outfielder Alex Call. The approach showed confidence in the arms the Dodgers have coming back, especially in the bullpen. But Scott and Yates, their two big offseason signings, have combined for a 4.21 ERA this season. Right-hander Kopech, meanwhile, has appeared in just eight games. They’ll have a lot to prove.
Expected return date: Optimism around Meadows emerged on Monday, with some light running in the outfield — a subtle sign he is progressing once again toward a rehab assignment. Meadows, 25, missed the first two months of the season with inflammation in his upper right arm that he later learned was a product of issues with his musculocutaneous nerve. He spent most of June and July in the lineup, then landed on the injured list once more, this time because of a right quad strain. The hope is that he can be back playing center field before the end of August.
What he means to the team: Meadows accumulated 11 outs above average in center field from 2023 to 2024 despite playing in only 119 games. In that stretch, he also stole 17 bases, provided a .729 OPS — with fairly even splits against lefties and righties — and accumulated 3.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement. As the Tigers march toward their first division title in 11 years and vie for a first-round bye, they find themselves longing for Meadows in several ways. The hope is that he’ll be a much better hitter than he showed earlier this season, when he slashed .200/.270/.296 in 137 plate appearances.
Expected return date: Megill has been absent from the Mets’ rotation since the middle of June because of a right elbow sprain but threw 20 pitches in a simulated game at Citi Field on Sunday. He is expected to extend to two innings in another session on Thursday. A rehab assignment will follow shortly thereafter, putting Megill on track to potentially rejoin the Mets’ rotation later this month. Megill was solid before going down, posting a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts, and the Mets’ rotation could really use some of that right now.
What he means to the team: When Megill got hurt on June 14, the Mets’ rotation easily led the majors with a 2.82 ERA. Since then, the group has posted a 5.12 ERA, ranked 26th. Lately, it has only gotten worse. The Mets have lost eight of their past nine games, and in that stretch, the starters have allowed 34 runs (32 earned) in 43⅔ innings. Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga have all had their struggles, to varying degrees, of late. And though Megill certainly can’t fix that alone, another capable starter would certainly be welcomed.
Expected return date: Miller, limited to just 10 starts this season, cruised through his first rehab start on Friday, tossing four scoreless innings, and is scheduled to stretch to five innings on Thursday. Given that he has gone on the IL because of right elbow inflammation twice this year, requiring a cortisone shot and a platelet-rich plasma injection, the Mariners will play it safe — Miller will make two more rehab starts before being activated. Robles dislocated his left shoulder while making an incredible catch in San Francisco on April 6 and is way ahead of schedule. He’s expected to begin a rehab assignment next week and could return before the end of August.
What they mean to the team: Robles is the Mariners’ leadoff hitter and spark plug. Over a 77-game stretch after Seattle signed him as a free agent last summer, he slashed .328/.393/.467. And if he can produce something close to that, a Mariners offense that added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez before the trade deadline and has received a dominant season from Cal Raleigh will be as deep as it has been since Jerry Dipoto took over baseball operations 10 years ago. The Mariners haven’t received as much from their rotation as they would have expected this year, but a staff of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Miller — 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA while healthy last year — still rivals the best in the game.
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David Hale
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the debate between the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 over the future of the College Football Playoff, it’s that committees are awful. They get it wrong nearly every year despite the fact that they’ve mostly gotten it right.
Of course, Top 25 lists are no better. You know who votes in those? Reporters and coaches. Reporters clearly don’t know ball, and coaches don’t have the time to watch the games. We can’t trust them either.
There was a time when we entrusted computers with assembling a proper ranking of teams. The BCS crunched the numbers based on some nebulous inputs and spat out the results. And while it might feel like ChatGPT could step in now and become a neutral arbiter, it would also be one more step toward our eventual demise as a species. If humans can’t rank college football teams, it’s just a matter of time before we’re all controlled by a sentient version of those coffee delivery drones.
No, there is really just one honest way to evaluate college football’s 136 FBS teams, and that is to sort through all the data, talk to a host of coaches and players and analysts, and then unilaterally put them into tiers.
And with that, we give you the most official, guaranteed-to-be-accurate, tiered preseason ranking for the 2025 season.
Jump to a section:
Cream of the crop | Teams that are hot | Big Ten’s ticking clocks
Room for improvement | Could be talked into them
Tier 1a: A great matchup for Week 1 and/or the championship game (two teams)
Last season, Ohio State won a national championship and, according to virtually every coach we’ve asked, the Buckeyes were the most talented team in the country all along. Only, if the playoff had waited one more year to expand, Ohio State would’ve missed out, and Ryan Day might’ve been looking for a job.
There’s a fun thought experiment to be done with those facts in mind: Did expanding the playoff give more teams an opportunity to win it all, or did it simply ensure that the best teams wouldn’t miss their chance due to something fluky (or, in Ohio State’s case, something that has become increasingly common)?
We pose this question because it may apply to the Buckeyes again in 2025. With a bevy of veterans off to the NFL from the 2024 national championship team and a fresh-faced quarterback taking over the offense, it’s entirely reasonable to think Ohio State might need a few weeks to get rolling again. The only problem is the Buckeyes don’t have an inch of runway: Texas is waiting in Week 1.
In another era, this game wouldn’t just be the marquee event of the opening weekend but a turning point in the season. The loser would then face another 11 games while residing on a knife’s edge. A second loss — to Michigan, perhaps — would doom the Buckeyes. Texas would still have an entire SEC slate ahead with no margin for error. And yet, it could still be entirely true that the loser of this game would have a claim to the title of the country’s most talented squad.
Of course, this is the 12-team playoff era (and soon to be the 14-, 16- or, if Eli Drinkwitz has his way, 30-team playoff era) which means that the first showdown between Ohio State and Texas will be but an appetizer, and both schools will remain the most likely to hoist the trophy in late January.
Is that better? Would the 2024 campaign have been more fun if Ohio State had been left out because of the loss to Michigan?
With all due respect to the folks in Ann Arbor nodding their heads like they’re at a Pantera concert, the verdict seems to be that the sport benefits when the best teams get as many bites at the apple as they need to close the deal.
Tier 1b: The rest of the best (three teams)
At this year’s SEC media days, we posed a question to one of the league’s upper-tier coaches: How many teams each season can really win it all?
His answer: Four. Maybe five.
This is the secret that few in college football like to discuss, because it invariably quashes hope for lots of other fan bases, and aside from five-star recruits, hope is a program’s most valuable commodity.
But this coach is certainly not alone. It’s a theory posited again and again by folks inside the sport. Just who those four or five teams are may change from year to year, but no matter how much the playoff expands, the number of teams who realistically have a chance to still be standing at the end remains mostly fixed.
That’s sort of the point of why we’re ranking teams by tiers. There are lots of “good” teams, but how many are really within striking distance of winning a national title? Probably four or five.
Now, we could be wrong about the makeup of that five-team upper tier. There’s a first time for everything, after all. But if we’re looking at top talent, a path to the playoff, recent history and we’re properly reading our Magic 8 Ball, then Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are at the front of the line (alongside Ohio State and Texas).
The potential pitfall for each? QB play.
Georgia turns things over to Gunner Stockton, who started last year’s playoff loss to Notre Dame but also drives a 1985 Ford F-150. Aside from a T-bird with a gold eagle on the hood, there’s no better vehicle a QB can drive to provide assurance that he knows what he’s doing.
At Oregon, Dan Lanning turns to Dante Moore, the former prized recruit for UCLA who learned behind Dillon Gabriel last season. Moore has ample talent to get the job done, and if he struggles early, there’s at least a 20% chance Phil Knight bribes Tom Brady to come out of retirement, don a fake mustache and use the name “Dom Frady” to lead the Ducks to a title.
And then there’s Drew Allar, who enters his second year with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki alongside arguably the most talented supporting cast in the Big Ten. The pressure is on for Allar — who has been very good but not entirely elite — to finish the job. We can’t help but feel like Penn State replacing the old press box at Beaver Stadium is exactly the type of curse-ending decision Allar and the Nittany Lions needed to change their fortunes.
Tier 2: Playoff expectations (six teams)
Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU
Anything less than a playoff appearance would feel like a serious disappointment for the teams in Tier 2. None feel like an absolute lock, though.
Michigan’s schedule is certainly accommodating. The only team on the docket to finish 2024 with more than seven wins is Ohio State, on the final Saturday of the regular season. But Michigan also has QB questions, with freshman Bryce Underwood considered the likely starter. Last season’s offensive woes led to five losses on the heels of a national title, so getting the QB choice right is an imperative.
Notre Dame and Alabama are breaking in new QBs, too. CJ Carr has plenty of hype and the Irish probably have their best skill position depth in Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The Tide lost four games last season for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut campaign. Patience will be thin in Tuscaloosa, making Kalen DeBoer’s handling of the quarterback room a tricky situation. Ty Simpson, a once-prized recruit, has the inside track, but freshman Keelon Russell is incredibly talented. Could this look a little like the 2016 opener, when Blake Barnett got the start only to be benched in favor of a freshman by the name of Jalen Hurts after two drives?
LSU hasn’t won an opener since 2019. Clemson has lost three of its past four openers. Something has got to give when the two teams face off in Week 1. Clemson can probably survive a defeat, even if Dabo Swinney’s critics will begin the chorus once again that he’s past his prime. LSU will have a tougher time recovering with a schedule that still includes Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Brian Kelly’s head exploding with fire like the red guy in “Inside Out” should at least provide some entertainment if things go south in Baton Rouge.
Then there’s Miami, a team with all the talent to make a title run but enough self-inflicted wounds over the years to wonder if it’ll be the likes of Stanford or Virginia Tech that trip up the Canes.
(Note: It’ll be Syracuse. We all know it’ll be Syracuse.)
Tier 3: Someone in the SEC has to lose games, too (six teams)
Florida
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Fun fact: All 16 SEC teams rank among the 20 hardest schedules in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics, from the grueling path for Florida (No. 1) to the easy (relatively speaking) slate at Missouri (No. 20).
We know you’re shocked to learn that life is difficult in the SEC. The league so rarely mentions its depth or strength of schedule, and its coaches are reticent to suggest that their teams deserve any additional benefit of the doubt as a result. Oh wait, they’re actually contractually obligated to mention it in every interview.
Lane Kiffin drew the ire of some ACC fans when he said another SEC coach suggested it’d be easier to play Clemson each week than an SEC schedule. That may have been an exaggeration, but according to ESPN Research, a slate that included eight games against Clemson plus a reasonable nonconference schedule would work out to be almost exactly as difficult as the schedule Florida plays this season.
The Gators play eight teams that have spent time in the AP top 10 in the past two seasons, all of whom have rosters made of a majority blue-chip recruits. By SP+, the Gators get six of the top 13 teams (and also Long Island). It’s a schedule DJ Lagway called “fun” and Florida fans call “less enjoyable than a root canal.”
Now, others may parse the data differently, but the bottom line is inarguable: No one in the SEC has an easy ride to the playoff, which makes Tier 3 likely to include at least two playoff teams and at least two schools that fire their coaches, and the difference between those camps will be a few plays one way or the other.
The SEC is designed to eat itself, which is one of the reasons it has pushed so hard for increased playoff access. There’s simply not a scenario in which every school that invests in winning, has a playoff-caliber roster and whose fans expect to make a playoff run, will actually do so.
Tier 4: Last year’s playoff surprises (four teams)
Arizona State
Boise State
Indiana
SMU
In 2023, Arizona State and Indiana each won three games, Boise State fired its coach after a 5-5 start, and SMU was in the American Athletic Conference and lost in a bowl game to Boston College.
In 2024, they were all playoff teams.
The initial 12-team playoff was truly remarkable in that it didn’t simply reward 12 blue bloods. It coincided with an abrupt change in the sport that allowed complete afterthoughts in September to play meaningful football in December and January.
Yes, playoff expansion was the key here, but it’s true, too, that the era of name, image and likeness, the transfer portal, and bloated conferences that equate to disparate schedules set the stage for far more volatility in the standings than ever before. The top end of the bell curve may remain static at four or five elite teams, but the meat of it keeps getting wider.
Indiana and Arizona State both went from three wins to double digits. In the entire playoff era (minus the COVID year), that had only happened one other time at a Power 5 school (2017 Michigan State, who promptly regressed to 7-6 the next year).
SMU came within a hair’s breadth of winning the ACC title. TCU, Utah, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston — the past six teams to move up from a non-power league — were a combined 16-38 in conference play in their first years in a Power 5 conference, and none had a winning record.
Since firing Andy Avalos after that 5-5 start, Boise State has won 15 of 18 games, with all three losses coming to Power 4 foes.
Life moves quickly in college football these days. The big question as this foursome looks to return to the College Football Playoff is whether the pendulum swings just as fast in the other direction.
(Note from Tallahassee: It does.)
Tier 5: So hot right now (four teams)
Illinois
Louisville
Texas Tech
Utah
We probably shouldn’t use last year’s playoff as an indication of what the future may hold. It’s a one-year sample size, after all. But 2024 gave us six first-time playoff teams, and odds are, we’ll get two or three more this season. And when it comes to predicting who those teams might be, the schools in Tier 5 are the hottest things since Hansel hit the runway in “Zoolander.”
There’s plenty of buzz that this year’s Indiana could be Illinois. If the implication is that the Illini could be a surprise playoff team out of the Big Ten, it makes sense. But the key difference here is Indiana came out of nowhere to go 11-1 last regular season. An Illinois run into the playoff would be far less shocking. The Illini went 10-3 last season, with two losses coming to playoff teams. They also beat Michigan (transitive property national champs!) and South Carolina (though that doesn’t count because the SEC doesn’t care about meaningless bowls). Bret Bielema has built something that looks an awful lot like his old Wisconsin teams — veteran QB, heavy dose of the run game behind a massive O-line, stout defense — capable of competing with nearly anyone. Of course, those Wisconsin teams were notable for being routinely good but never quite great. How high is the ceiling for Bielema now?
Utah enters this season as a trendy pick in the Big 12 thanks to some returning stars, an expectation that last year’s bad luck has to turn, and finally opening a season with someone other than the hollowed-out shell of Cam Rising at QB.
If luck kept Utah from the Big 12 race last season, it may have kept Louisville from the playoff. The Cards lost four games — three to top-15 teams — all by a touchdown or less, along with a defeat at the hands of Stanford that will go down as possibly the single dumbest way to lose a football game that didn’t involve throwing a shoe.
And if you’re not psyched for Texas Tech this year … how much cash would it take to change your mind?
Tier 6: The Big 12 is the new ACC Coastal (four teams)
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
TCU
Ever play credit card roulette? When the bill comes at a restaurant, everyone at the table puts their credit card into a hat, then the server picks one at random to pay the entire bill. That’s effectively how the Big 12 is looking right now. (In this analogy, though, Texas Tech should probably be picking up any checks.) Look at the betting markets and every team in the conference is projected to win between 5.5 and 8.5 games this season.
So, throw the names into a hat and pull one out. You’re as likely to get it right as we are.
Tier 7: Flying beneath the radar like Tom Cruise in ‘Maverick’ (five teams)
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Washington
We’ve seen a lot of change in college football in recent years, which has made Iowa’s offense such a needed through line connecting the modern version of the sport with an older generation. Granted, that generation probably lived through the Great Depression, but let’s not split hairs. Nevertheless, there were signs that even the Hawkeyes might be taking a small step forward, as the offense scored 40 points in a game four times last season — something Iowa had done just four times in the previous four seasons combined. Now, Iowa has a QB it likes in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, the defense should be stout again, and nobody punts like the Hawkeyes.
Kansas was 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year but also had wins over three straight ranked teams in November. With a more settled offensive approach and the return of Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks look like a potential sleeper.
Not counting the 2020 COVID-19 season, Minnesota is one of just 15 teams to win 60% of its Power 5 games. That’s more impressive than it sounds. It’s better than Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami and Texas A&M. The Gophers enter 2025 with a ton of intriguing pieces led by Koi Perich and Darius Taylor, and while the schedule includes road trips to Ohio State and Oregon, there’s certainly a path for PJ Fleck to get Minnesota back to the 10-win plateau.
Fun fact: Since Brent Key took over as head coach at Georgia Tech on Sept. 26, 2022, the Yellow Jackets have as many wins against ranked foes (six) as Clemson and more than Penn State (five), Oklahoma (four) or LSU (four). In fact, they have more than Miami, Colorado, Boise State, Indiana and BYU combined — and all five of those teams finished last year in the top 25. Of course, in that same span, Georgia Tech has losses to Virginia, Bowling Green, Virginia Tech and Vandy. So, it’s a work in progress.
Washington is a work in progress, too. In Year 1 under Jedd Fisch, the Huskies floundered to a 6-7 record, including losses to Washington State and Rutgers. But Demond Williams Jr. looks like a difference-maker at QB, and it’s worth remembering that at Arizona, Fisch went from a completely noncompetitive 1-11 in Year 1 to 5-7 in Year 2 with one of the most improved teams in the country. Washington may still be a year away, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Huskies take a big leap forward now before threatening in the Big Ten in 2026.
Tier 8: Regression to the mean (the bad kind) (five teams)
BYU
Duke
Missouri
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
This group of teams won 32 games against Power 4 opponents last season. Twenty-four of them (75%) came by a touchdown or less.
Missouri and Duke each won four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter.
BYU and Syracuse each won double-digit games despite being outscored against FBS opponents last season.
Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt.
Look up and down the list of luck-influenced metrics, and these teams raise more red flags than Kanye’s Bumble profile.
Perhaps these guys all fend off the fickle college football gods for another year, but if the “Final Destination” movies have taught us anything, it’s that Ali Larter should be in more movies. But if there’s another thing they taught us, it’s that you can only avoid a disastrous fate for so long.
Tier 9: Regression to the mean (the good kind) (four teams)
Auburn
Florida State
NC State
Virginia Tech
This spring, ESPN’s Bill Connelly dug into three metrics that often rely heavily on luck: turnovers, close games and injuries. His findings: A lot went wrong for Florida State last year.
Now, it’s admirable that Connelly dug deep into the numbers, ran some regression analysis and employed NASA-level computing power to identify this. Another way to do it would’ve been to simply watch five minutes of FSU football last season, because at any given moment, something ridiculous was going wrong for the Seminoles.
You simply don’t go from 13-1 to 2-10 without the football gods deciding to do some serious smiting.
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, from Connelly’s stats — FSU was 128th in turnover luck, 90th in close-game luck and 110th in lineup consistency — to the types of things that were probably a bit more predictable (settling for DJ Uiagalelei at QB over Cam Ward).
It should be noted that, once again, FSU has rolled the dice on a QB with a checkered past, and Tommy Castellanos seems intent on taunting the aforementioned football gods, but at the very least, some of that bad luck has to go the other way in 2025, putting the Seminoles on course to improve by a good measure.
The same can be said for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 1-12 under coach Brent Pry in games determined by a touchdown or less, but it’s also worth noting that last year marked the first time since 2010 the Hokies didn’t lose a single regular-season game by more than 10.
NC State adds to the ACC’s run of bad luck last season, with Grayson McCall‘s early-season injury upending the offense and a 45-point year-over-year swing in points off turnovers for a team that lost five games by 10 or fewer points.
But the team that might have the best chance to turn the disappointments of 2024 into a serious playoff run in 2025 is Auburn. Jackson Arnold takes over at QB for an offense loaded with skill-position talent. The defense should be solid. Then look at the luck-based numbers: Auburn was 124th in turnover luck and dead last in close-game luck, which covered up the fact it was among the best teams in the country in success and explosive play rate differential. The pieces are in place, the Tigers just need a little more luck to make a run at 10 wins.
Tier 10a: The Big Ten’s ticking clocks (three teams)
Matt Rhule, Lincoln Riley and Luke Fickell each seemed like absolute home run coaching hires. Setting aside Riley’s 11-1 start to his tenure at USC, the three are now a combined 40-39 overall with a 23-32 record in Big Ten play since Dec. 1, 2022. That has put all three in a position to make 2025 a must-win year. What exactly “winning” means probably differs a bit by school, but the pressure is on.
Nebraska might be best equipped to make the leap to the next level. Dylan Raiola goes into Year 2 running the offense, but it’ll be his first full season with Dana Holgorsen calling the plays. Add in that, at some point, Nebraska’s run of awful luck in close games has to swing the other way and it’s not unfathomable that the Huskers are in the mix for a playoff bid.
For Wisconsin, it’s a return to the Badgers’ foundations as Fickell has abandoned plans to bring an up-tempo passing attack to the stodgy Big Ten and will build around the ground game.
At USC, Riley lost a ton of big-name talent in the portal and will move forward with a QB who has 19 touchdown passes and 17 turnovers in nine career starts against teams with a winning record.
They can’t all turn it around this year, which makes this perhaps the most interesting portion of the Big Ten’s standings.
Tier 10b: The Group of 6’s other top playoff contenders (six teams)
Liberty
Memphis
James Madison
Toledo
Tulane
UNLV
Liberty is the gold standard in soft scheduling. The Flames have the worst preseason strength of schedule in the country after finishing 2024 with … the worst strength of schedule in the country. Half of Liberty’s 12 games are against teams that were at the FCS level in 2021. It has four games against first-year head coaches. Eight games come against teams that won four or fewer FBS games last year. Jamey Chadwell should have a good team, but the schedule also should make it nearly impossible to finish worse than 10-2.
UNLV and Memphis both figure to be in contention for the Group of 6’s playoff bid, and their schedules certainly make the path a little easier. The Rebels (No. 113 schedule) have a home game against UCLA and a road trip to Boise State to contend with, but they also have eight games against teams ranked 100th or worse in preseason FPI (including six ranked 120th or worse). Memphis (No. 106 schedule strength) also has a relatively clear path. The Tigers get Arkansas — their lone Power 4 opponent — at home, miss Army, Tulane and UTSA from the conference schedule, and follow the game against the Razorbacks with five games in six weeks against teams that finished a combined 15-41 vs. FBS opponents last year. If Memphis can topple the Hogs, expect the Tigers to enter November with a top-20 ranking.
Since 2022, no Group of 5 team has won more games than Tulane (32). The Green Wave ought to again be among the best of the American in terms of talent, but the schedule is no easy task to manage. In nonconference play, Tulane hosts Northwestern, goes on the road to South Alabama, hosts Duke (and QB Darian Mensah, who transferred from Tulane after last season), then travels to Ole Miss. In conference play, Tulane gets ECU, Army, UTSA and Memphis — four of the six other American teams to make a bowl last year. If Tulane makes the playoff, it will have earned the spot.
Could Toledo make a run at the playoff? The Rockets open with a trip to Kentucky, which isn’t exactly an insurmountable hill to climb unless you’re Ole Miss. Win that and the next week against Western Kentucky, and Toledo should have a little buzz. Then check out the back half of the schedule: vs. Kent State, at Washington State, vs. NIU, at Miami (Ohio), vs. Ball State and at Central Michigan. Those six teams finished a combined 16-24 in the second half of last season.
JMU has won 28 games in three seasons since moving up from the FCS, and of its nine losses, four have come by a touchdown or less. The Sun Belt is deep, but it’s not top-heavy, opening the door for the Dukes to make a run at the Group of 6’s playoff bid.
Tier 11: Potential sleepers (seven teams)
Cincinnati
Colorado
Houston
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Virginia
This tier includes Deion Sanders and Bill Belichick so, for media purposes, it should probably be Tier 1. But there are still some big questions surrounding Colorado and UNC.
For the Buffaloes, it’ll be the first time Coach Prime will have to go to battle without Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter. Colorado has topped 150 yards on designed runs only once in two years under Deion Sanders, and the Buffs’ 74 designed rush yards-per-game in that stretch is, by far, the worst in the country. How will Colorado adapt after losing two of the most explosive players in the country in the passing game?
UNC has completely overhauled its roster from the Mack Brown era, with Belichick dipping heavily into the transfer portal — including nearly three dozen spring portal additions. Numerous coaches who spoke with ESPN said this spring was an incredibly shallow pool of talent. Can that actually translate to wins or will 2025 be more about building a foundation than reviving the program?
Instead, it might be the lower-profile programs in this tier who have the real upside.
Virginia added transfer QB Chandler Morris alongside one of the better portal classes in the ACC and plays one of the weakest schedules of any Power 4 school this season. Louisville, Washington State and Duke are the only opponents on this season’s slate that won more than six games in 2024.
Houston showed signs of promise in Year 1 under Willie Fritz with wins over TCU, Utah and Kansas State, even if the final record was ugly (4-8). An offensive overhaul led by Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman should help a program that finished 133rd in scoring last season.
Each of the past two seasons, Rutgers has gone 6-6 with a four-game losing streak in the mix then won a bowl game. Usually, that would count as real success at a place like Rutgers, but coach Greg Schiano clearly has higher aspirations, and the Scarlet Knights might have the talent to push for bigger things in 2025.
Cincinnati blew a big lead to Pitt in Week 2. Pitt went on to start 7-0 before injuries and a handful of close losses derailed its season. Had Cincy hung on, it could’ve opened 6-1 with a win over Arizona State on its record. Instead, the Bearcats finished on a five-game losing streak and did not make a bowl. Both teams are deeper and more experienced this season, with veteran QBs and stars on defense (Kyle Louis, Dontay Corleone).
Tier 12: Even Stevens (seven teams)
Arkansas
Boston College
Cal
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan State
UCLA
In the playoff era, BC has finished with either six or seven wins nine times.
Arkansas is 30-31 under Sam Pittman. Not counting the COVID-19 season, it’s 20-21 vs. FBS teams. The Hogs are 21-9 vs. teams with a losing record and 9-22 vs. teams with a winning record.
Cal has finished with between five and seven wins six times in the playoff era, and it has 61 games (fifth most nationally) decided by a touchdown or less.
Since 2018, Michigan State is 41-41 — though that includes seasons of 11-2 and 4-8.
Since Mark Stoops’ second year, Kentucky is 65-63 vs. FBS opponents. From 2015 to 2023, the Wildcats were 31-29 in SEC play.
UCLA is 66-64 in the playoff era, averaging 29.6 points and surrendering 29.1 points against FBS opposition.
Now, Oscar Wilde said that consistency was the last refuge of the unimaginative, but The Rock said success was more about consistency than greatness. Who are you going to believe — some long-dead writer or the star of “Jumanji: The Next Level”?
Tier 13: Stars & stripes (three teams)
Army and Navy were a combined 22-5 last season. In 2023, Air Force won nine games. In the playoff era, the military academies have 11 10-win seasons. And they’ve done it all without NIL deals or taking transfers.
Now, if we wanted to really protect America’s interests, we’d start putting tariffs on the portal and using that money to fund academy revenue sharing.
Tier 14: Room for improvement (six teams)
Arizona
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
UCF
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Arizona and Oklahoma State were a combined 20-7 (and 14-4 in conference play) in 2023. Both fell off a cliff in 2024.
The Wildcats struggled in Year 1 under Brent Brennan, but they bring back Noah Fifita at QB and showed enough life that a step forward in 2025 isn’t unrealistic.
Mike Gundy has made it a habit of having big seasons mixed with mediocre ones in the past few years, but last year’s winless Big 12 schedule was an anomaly. Gundy is high on QB Hauss Hejny, who should at least be able to open things up a bit for the run game.
Wake Forest is getting a fresh start under new coach Jake Dickert. The roster needs work — QB and O-line are blank slates — but the Deacons bring back a talented tailback in Demond Claiborne and have the weakest schedule in the Power 4.
UCF is looking to go back to the future by bringing Scott Frost home after his dismal stint at Nebraska. Frost inherited a train wreck during his first stint in Orlando and turned things around quickly — though that was in the American, not the Big 12.
For virtually the entirety of this millennium, Northwestern has effectively put the same team on the field — shaky QB, good defense, smart players — and watched as the results either come up with 10 wins and a run at the Big Ten or a 3-9 season that’s physically painful to watch.
Aside from the surprising 9-4 season in 2023, West Virginia has won either five or six games every year since 2019.
In other words, it’s hard to feel particularly good about any team in this tier, but it’s also entirely within reason that some team here wins 10 games.
Tier 15: Group of 6 with upside (15 teams)
App State
Buffalo
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Fresno State
Louisiana
Ohio
North Texas
South Alabama
Texas State
Troy
UConn
South Florida
UTSA
Western Kentucky
North Texas has been a perennial six-win team, but this could be the Mean Green’s chance to make a big leap up the standings. They check-in only one spot ahead of Liberty with the No. 135th-ranked schedule in the country, miss ECU, USF, Memphis and Tulane in conference play, and after Oct. 1, they go on the road only three times — to Charlotte, UAB and Rice.
Florida Atlantic was another team snakebit by bad luck last season. As Connelly noted in his analysis of teams facing the worst luck, only one program finished 111th or worse in all three categories he evaluated: FAU. Now add new head coach Zach Kittley and QB transfer Caden Veltkamp and there’s a lot to like about the Owls’ upside.
South Alabama also had plenty of bad luck in close games. The Jaguars lost to Ohio, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Texas State — all teams that won eight or more games — by a combined 20 points.
Tier 16a: At least you tried (three teams)
Mississippi State
Purdue
Stanford
Stanford has won nine Power 5 games since 2021. Five of them came against teams that either finished ranked in the top 25 or were ranked there at the time of the game. Another came against Deion Sanders. Stanford makes no sense.
Mississippi State is 2-16 vs. Power 5 competition in the past two years. The two wins are by a combined 11 points. The losses are by an average of 18.
Purdue. More like Pur-don’t. We’ll show ourselves out.
Tier 16b: The lost boys (two teams)
In the past 24 months, Oregon and Washington agreed to move to the Big Ten for 40 cents on the dollar. Stanford and Cal took even less from the ACC. SMU agreed to play ACC ball for nothing, and Memphis just offered the Big 12 $200 million for an invite.
Why?
Because of zombified remains of Washington State and Oregon State.
From former Cougars QB John Mateer, who transferred, along with his offensive coordinator, to Oklahoma after last season’s surprising 8-4 finish, on seeing what became of Wazzu after the Pac-12 fell apart: “I loved my time there. I never thought I’d leave. It sucked. I couldn’t control it. I was going to play against whoever I was going to play against, but it broke my heart.”
Tier 17: They’re fine. Solid. Decent. OK. (10 teams)
Arkansas State
Bowling Green
Colorado State
Georgia Southern
Miami (Ohio)
Northern Illinois
Old Dominion
San Diego State
San José State
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall had New Mexico on the verge of a bowl last season, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he rights the ship quickly at Utah State.
Eddie George inherits a solid squad at Bowling Green, and he’s thinking — well, either aspirationally or he’s delusional — that the Falcons can win big.
Jay Norvell has gone from three to five to eight wins in his time at Colorado State. This could be his real breakthrough season.
Unfortunately for NIU, it lost out on an easy win without Notre Dame on the schedule this season.
Tier 18: We could be talked into them (eight teams)
Coastal Carolina
Hawai’i
UL Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston
Southern Miss
UAB
Wyoming
Hawai’i won five games and missed out on beating UCLA and UNLV by a combined five points. The Rainbow Warriors are trending in the right direction.
Louisiana Tech finished 5-8, but its first six losses of the season all came by 10 points or fewer.
ULM finished on a six-game losing streak, even wasting a chance to embarrass Hugh Freeze at Jordan-Hare in late November, which had become one of our favorite Group of 5 traditions.
Tier 19: The best entertainment you’re likely to find on a Tuesday night in mid-November (12 teams)
Central Michigan
Delaware
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Jacksonville State
Marshall
Missouri State
Nevada
Temple
Tulsa
UTEP
Western Michigan
You might be surprised to learn that Delaware is an FBS football program beginning this season. To help with your preseason preparation, here are some fun facts to familiarize yourself with the program.
The Blue Hen is the only explicitly female mascot in FBS football (not counting Mrs. Wuf at NC State).
Delaware’s winged helmet design was created by former coach David Nelson, a former Michigan football player, who essentially cut and pasted his former team’s look.
Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco both played at Delaware.
Delaware is, in fact, an entire state and not just 18 miles of highway between toll booths in Maryland and New Jersey.
Tier 20: Participation trophies (11 teams)
Akron
Ball State
Charlotte
Georgia State
Kennesaw State
Kent State
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Rice
Massachusetts
You know what they call the guy who finishes last in his class at medical school? They call him “doctor.” And so it is that the teams in Tier 20 are technically FBS football programs, though they’re as likely to finish with a conference championship as they are to finish medical school themselves.
Since the end of 2022, Kent State has had a head coach quit to become a coordinator for Deion Sanders (then be demoted), another get fired for taking loans from a booster and the program posting a 1-23 record, including 21 straight losses. Last season, Kent State was outgained by an average of 282 yards per game — 120 more than any other team. The Golden Flashes play Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma in the first five weeks this season.
Last season, Ball State became only the fourth team of the playoff era (not counting the 2020 COVID season) to have a turnover margin of plus-2 or better and still be outscored by at least 14 points per game and outgained by at least 100 yards per game. So, what happens if the turnover luck is a little worse in 2025?
Then there’s Charlotte, a program that couldn’t even afford sleeves for its last head coach, has had only one winning season in its history, and now faces the second-most daunting schedule of any Group of 6 team in the country. Per ESPN’s metrics, the 49ers’ schedule is tougher than all but one Big 12 team.
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