Trump’s two big gambles as US enters war with Iran
Donald Trump has rolled the dice. He is gambling on being correct about two key variables.
First, he is banking on being right that the Iranian nuclear sites struck by the US have really been “completely and totally obliterated”, as he claimed.
US military officials have frequently said destroying the whole nuclear apparatus would be very hard and the more likely outcome of air strikes would be to set the nuclear programme back.
Follow latest: Iran considering ‘all options’ after US strikes
Donald Trump at a meeting in the Situation Room at the White House
The second gamble holds far more jeopardy. The president is betting Iran will not have the capability, or the guts, to hit any of the many US bases and diplomatic missions in the region or to meaningfully disrupt international shipping.
His hope is the moderates in the Iranian regime will now recognise their own strategic defeat and will adopt a position of dialogue and de-escalation.
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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’
The best-case scenario now would be a repeat of history: a repeat of a moment when Mr Trump, in his first term, got lucky.
In December 2019 he made a decisive decision to order the assassination of the then-head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.
He had opted for a seismic retaliation in response to Iranian attacks on Americans in the region. In early January 2020, Iran’s most senior military figure was killed in a drone strike in Baghdad.
The region braced, and many predicted a huge Iranian counter-attack. But it didn’t come. There were isolated attacks, but nothing sustained.
Donald Trump as he prepares to deliver his White House address. Pic : Reuters
Two weeks ago, Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff warned an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran would prompt a massive Iranian retaliation. He predicted what he called a “mass casualty event” in Israel. That too has not materialised.
The US president is said to have been surprised and impressed by Israel’s defensive capabilities but also its offensive operations in Iran.
He seems to be convinced enough the Iranian response in the days ahead will be limp.
He cited the assassination of General Sulemani in his late-night address to the nation. He sees that as his success, a gamble that paid off.
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Iran threatens American soldiers and citizens
If he is right again on both of his new gambles – that he has destroyed the nuclear facilities and that Iran does not hit back with any effectiveness – then, just maybe, this will be a game-changing moment.
But if Iran manages even to hit one US base and kill some Americans, then the whole thing will spiral.
He made one more gamble this weekend. He bet his own base of supporters will be with him on this.
He is the president who campaigned on a pledge not to involve America in far-away wars, and yet he has just dramatically inserted himself into a new one.
He now needs to show them he is right, that this was a one-off game-changing strike of American might – strength to bring peace, he’d say.
In his short late-night address to the nation, he made a point of reminding America of Iran’s malign behaviour over decades – their weapons killed and maimed many Americans, he told them.
It was notable too that he was flanked by his vice-president, secretary of state and defence secretary. He doesn’t want to own this gamble alone.
Donald Trump has said he is considering “taking away” the US citizenship of actress and comedian Rosie O’Donnell, despite a Supreme Court ruling that expressly prohibits a government from doing so.
In a post on Truth Social on Saturday, the US president said: “Because of the fact that Rosie O’Donnell is not in the best interests of our Great Country, I am giving serious consideration to taking away her Citizenship.”
He also labelled O’Donnell, who has moved to Ireland, as a “threat to humanity” and said she should “remain in the wonderful country of Ireland, if they want her”.
O’Donnell responded on Instagram by posting a photograph of Mr Trump with Jeffrey Epstein.
“You are everything that is wrong with America and I’m everything you hate about what’s still right with it,” she wrote in the caption.
“I’m not yours to silence. I never was.”
Rosie O’Donnell moved to Ireland after Donald Trump secured a second term. Pic: AP
O’Donnell moved to Ireland with her 12-year-old son in January after Mr Trump had secured a second term.
She has said she’s in the process of obtaining Irish citizenship based on family lineage and that she would only return to the US “when it is safe for all citizens to have equal rights there in America”.
O’Donnell and the US president have criticised each other publicly for years, in an often-bitter back-and-forth that predates Mr Trump’s move into politics.
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This is just the latest threat by the president to revoke the citizenship of someone he has disagreed with, most recently his former ally Elon Musk.
But the two situations are different as while Musk was born in South Africa, O’Donnell was born in the US and has a constitutional right to American citizenship.
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Amanda Frost, a law professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, said the Supreme Court ruled in a 1967 case that the fourteenth amendment of the constitution prevents the government from taking away citizenship.
“The president has no authority to take away the citizenship of a native-born US citizen,” he added.
“In short, we are nation founded on the principle that the people choose the government; the government cannot choose the people.”
A farmer who fell from a greenhouse roof during an anti-immigrant raid at a licensed cannabis facility in California this week has died of his injuries.
Jaime Alanis, 57, is the first person to die as a result of Donald Trump’s Immigration Compliance and Enforcement (ICE) raids.
His niece, Yesenia Duran, posted on the fundraising site GoFundMe to say her uncle was his family’s only provider and he had been sending his earnings back to his wife and daughter in Mexico.
The United Food Workers said Mr Alanis had worked on the farm for 10 years.
“These violent and cruel federal actions terrorise American communities, disrupt the American food supply chain, threaten lives and separate families,” the union said in a recent statement on X.
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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said it executed criminal search warrants at Glass House Farms facilities on Thursday.
Mr Alanis called family to say he was hiding and possibly fleeing agents before he fell around 30ft (9m) from the roof and broke his neck, according to information from family, hospital and government sources.
Agents arrested 200 people suspected of being in the country illegally and identified at least 10 immigrant children on the sites, the DHS said in a statement.
Mr Alanis was not among them, the agency said.
“This man was not in and has not been in CBP (Customs and Border Protection) or ICE custody,” DHS assistant secretary for public affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.
“Although he was not being pursued by law enforcement, this individual climbed up to the roof of a greenhouse and fell 30ft. CBP immediately called a medivac to the scene to get him care as quickly as possible.”
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Four US citizens were arrested during the incident for allegedly “assaulting or resisting officers”, the DHS said, and authorities were offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of a person suspected of firing a gun at federal agents.
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In a statement, Glass House, a licensed Cannabis grower, said immigration agents had valid warrants. It said workers were detained and it is helping provide them with legal representation.
“Glass House has never knowingly violated applicable hiring practices and does not and has never employed minors,” it added.
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