Trump’s two big gambles as US enters war with Iran
Donald Trump has rolled the dice. He is gambling on being correct about two key variables.
First, he is banking on being right that the Iranian nuclear sites struck by the US have really been “completely and totally obliterated”, as he claimed.
US military officials have frequently said destroying the whole nuclear apparatus would be very hard and the more likely outcome of air strikes would be to set the nuclear programme back.
Follow latest: Iran considering ‘all options’ after US strikes
Donald Trump at a meeting in the Situation Room at the White House
The second gamble holds far more jeopardy. The president is betting Iran will not have the capability, or the guts, to hit any of the many US bases and diplomatic missions in the region or to meaningfully disrupt international shipping.
His hope is the moderates in the Iranian regime will now recognise their own strategic defeat and will adopt a position of dialogue and de-escalation.
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What we know so far about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities
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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’
The best-case scenario now would be a repeat of history: a repeat of a moment when Mr Trump, in his first term, got lucky.
In December 2019 he made a decisive decision to order the assassination of the then-head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.
He had opted for a seismic retaliation in response to Iranian attacks on Americans in the region. In early January 2020, Iran’s most senior military figure was killed in a drone strike in Baghdad.
The region braced, and many predicted a huge Iranian counter-attack. But it didn’t come. There were isolated attacks, but nothing sustained.
Donald Trump as he prepares to deliver his White House address. Pic : Reuters
Two weeks ago, Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff warned an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran would prompt a massive Iranian retaliation. He predicted what he called a “mass casualty event” in Israel. That too has not materialised.
The US president is said to have been surprised and impressed by Israel’s defensive capabilities but also its offensive operations in Iran.
He seems to be convinced enough the Iranian response in the days ahead will be limp.
He cited the assassination of General Sulemani in his late-night address to the nation. He sees that as his success, a gamble that paid off.
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Iran threatens American soldiers and citizens
If he is right again on both of his new gambles – that he has destroyed the nuclear facilities and that Iran does not hit back with any effectiveness – then, just maybe, this will be a game-changing moment.
But if Iran manages even to hit one US base and kill some Americans, then the whole thing will spiral.
He made one more gamble this weekend. He bet his own base of supporters will be with him on this.
He is the president who campaigned on a pledge not to involve America in far-away wars, and yet he has just dramatically inserted himself into a new one.
He now needs to show them he is right, that this was a one-off game-changing strike of American might – strength to bring peace, he’d say.
In his short late-night address to the nation, he made a point of reminding America of Iran’s malign behaviour over decades – their weapons killed and maimed many Americans, he told them.
It was notable too that he was flanked by his vice-president, secretary of state and defence secretary. He doesn’t want to own this gamble alone.
Police in Tennessee have discovered 14 improvised explosive devices in a man’s home as they were arresting him, the local sheriff’s office said.
Officers were executing a warrant in the home of Kevin Wade O’Neal in Old Fort, about 45 miles (70km) east of Chattanooga, after he had threatened to kill public officials and law enforcement personnel in Polk County.
After arresting the 54-year-old, officers noticed “something smouldering” in the bedroom where he was found.
Kevin Wade O’Neal. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
On closer inspection, they discovered an improvised explosive device and evacuated the house until bomb squad officers arrived at the scene.
Fourteen devices were found inside the property – none of which detonated.
Improvised explosive devices were found in Kevin Wade O’Neal’s home. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
Kevin Wade O’Neal’s home in Old Fort, Tennessee. Pic: Polk County Sheriff’s Office
O’Neal was charged with 11 counts of attempted first-degree murder, corresponding to nine officers and two other people inside the property when the suspect tried to detonate the devices.
He also faces 14 counts of prohibited weapons and one count of possession of explosive components.
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O’Neal is being held at the Polk County jail and his bond is yet to be determined.
Donald Trump says he has ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the “appropriate regions” in a row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.
It comes after Mr Medvedev, who is now deputy chair of Russia‘s Security Council, told the US president on Thursday to remember Moscow had Soviet-era nuclear strike capabilities of last resort.
On Friday, Mr Trump wrote on social media: “Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.
“Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
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Trump: ‘We’re going to protect our people’
Speaking outside the White House later in the day, Mr Trump was asked about why he had moved the submarines and replied: “We had to do that. We just have to be careful.
“A threat was made and we didn’t think it was appropriate, so I have to be very careful. So I do that on the basis of safety for our people. A threat was made by a former president of Russia and we’re going to protect our people.”
The spat between Mr Trump and Mr Medvedev came after the US president warned Russia on Tuesday it had “10 days from today” to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face tariffs, along with its oil buyers.
Moscow has shown no sign that it will agree to Mr Trump’s demands.
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On Thursday, Mr Medvedev reminded Mr Trump that Russia possessed a Soviet-era automated nuclear retaliatory system – or “dead hand”.
Mr Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was referring to a secretive semi-automated Soviet command system designed to launch Russia’s missiles if its leadership was taken out in a decapitating strike.
He made the remarks after Mr Trump told him to “watch his words” after Mr Medvedev said the US president’s threat of hitting Russia and its oil buyers with punitive tariffs was “a game of ultimatums” and added that “each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war” between Russia and the US.
Dmitry Medvedev. Pic: Reuters
Mr Medvedev served as Russia’s president from 2008 and 2012, when Mr Putin was barred from seeking a third consecutive term, but then stepped aside to let him run again.
As deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, he has become known for his provocative and inflammatory statements since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
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