2025 MLB mock draft 2.0: Who is surging up draft boards?
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Kiley McDaniel
With the combine underway and only a few more games in Omaha remaining, MLB draft season is winding down — so it’s time to take another stab at projecting the first round-plus of the 2025 draft.
The start of the MLB draft combine has become a sign that we’re about to enter silly season, when rumors become less attached to reality by the day. Private on-field workouts for players mentioned below are over, so there won’t be much more useful information collected — and that means the rumors are tied to controlling perception more than reflecting a new reality.
The biggest trend to note compared with the previous mock is the half-dozen or so rising college position players, which also corresponds to rumblings that the second cut of high school position players might slip a bit, often for overslot bonuses.
My “speculative” projection in the last mock was Arkansas right-hander Gage Wood at No. 17 — I thought he could be this year’s Cade Horton or Ty Floyd, rising late through the college postseason. Well, Wood threw a no-hitter earlier this week in the Men’s College World Series and now looks to have a floor somewhere in the range I initially projected him in — which was high at the time.
Now let’s predict the first 40 players to come off the board when this year’s MLB draft starts Sunday, July 13.
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Top 150 rank: 7
The conversation around who will go No. 1 continues to be wide open and will be until draft day, but Anderson’s strong finish to the season has him looking like the slight favorite over Ethan Holliday as the top pick. Seth Hernandez and Eli Willits are also getting looks here, and I’m sure there are internal conversations about a couple of other options, but Anderson and Holliday are seen as the most likely selections.
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 6
Name a player and he probably has been connected to this pick. Trying to figure out what’s actually going on here has been like watching “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” — there are more outgoing calls, workouts, rumors, misinformation and theories about the second pick than any other in the entire first round.
When in doubt, judge a team based on what it has done, and the Angels like to save on a quick-moving college player with their first pick. Despite his excellent season, Doyle’s interest seems to have a major hole in it. While there’s believed to be real interest in him at No. 2, teams picking behind the Angels think Doyle could slide all the way to No. 9 of No. 10. Doyle and Seth Hernandez have a similar group of teams eyeing them, as they’re both seen as a riskier type of pitcher (though not in the same way) than Anderson or Jamie Arnold.
There’s some buzz that prep shortstop Eli Willits could be the pick here (his father, Reggie, played for the Angels), breaking the Angels’ trend of taking college players, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Outside of the targets in the top 10 or so picks, the Angels seem to really like Georgia prep shortstop Daniel Pierce, but it’s unlikely he drops to their next pick at 47. At the Angels’ next few picks, potential quick-moving college arms such as Georgia’s Brian Curley, Tennessee’s A.J. Russell and Iowa’s Cade Obermueller make a lot of sense.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Top 150 rank: 1
The Mariners seem to be zeroed in on pitching with Anderson and Arnold being the best fits for them, along with high school pitcher Seth Hernandez if they can stomach taking a prep right-hander this high. In this scenario, I think they just take Arnold. Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette is still being scouted for this pick and I’ve heard Ike Irish and JoJo Parker brought up, but they seem to be on the outside looking in right now.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 3
This is one of the most well-known connections in the draft, and Holliday is likely to go fourth if he doesn’t go first. I’d guess this would be for an overslot bonus, similar to what Colorado did with Charlie Condon last year. Colorado is also tied to Aiva Arquette and Kyson Witherspoon, though I think it’d also be looking at whichever of the three college lefties remain if Holliday isn’t available.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (Mississippi)
Top 150 rank: 9
This is right about where the consensus starts to open up. Names such as Ike Irish, Eli Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson come up here, and this is seen as a stopping point for Holliday, Anderson and Arnold if they get this far. Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston’s name has also come up. If Anderson, Arnold and Holliday are gone, this pick is seen as likely to be a position player — probably the one the Cards think has the best hit tool of the group. Parker would most likely come with some (but not a lot of) savings if he went here and, of late, he has momentum to sneak ahead of Carlson and/or Willits. Some teams think Parker is actually the best hitter in the draft.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Top 150 rank: 8
The two players most tied to this spot are Arquette and Billy Carlson. I’ve also heard the Pirates would take prep righty Seth Hernandez if the board falls a certain way. There are some parallels to Hernandez in other picks this front office has made, such as Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler, so it makes some sense.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (Oklahoma)
Top 150 rank: 2
Willits has some interest at the top two picks, and then is in the mix for basically every pick starting at No. 5 with the Cardinals — so he should go by this pick or the next (Toronto). Miami is tied almost solely to prep position players –Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson come up a lot. There have also been some rumors of another underslot deal like last year’s pick of P.J. Morlando, with targets like some of the prep hitters who are projected a dozen picks or so later, if Miami doesn’t like the names/prices of the players on the board.
Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Top 150 rank: 26
Irish will be ranked higher once I update my rankings, and his name is coming up a lot in the back half of the top 10 and into the teens. There’s lots of buzz he will go ahead of Jace LaViolette — and not that far behind Arquette, if not ahead of him. College bats are rumored to be rising late in the process this year (including Brendan Summerhill, Gavin Kilen, Wehiwa Aloy, Marek Houston, Caden Bodine and Andrew Fischer), and moving a high school player who’s a late-first-round talent to a later pick is a common and often successful strategy. Toronto is often tied to the same prep bats as Miami and St. Louis, but the Blue Jays are believed to be going the college route if the right names with the right prices don’t land here. Irish, Arquette, Willits, Parker and Billy Carlson seem to make up the group from which they’ll probably pick.
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 4
Hernandez, as mentioned above, is seen as likely to go either No. 3 to the Mariners or here — with some chance he goes at a couple of other slots, but half the teams in the top 10 seem unlikely to take a prep right-hander. The Reds are hoping he gets here and have no fear of taking this kind of player. If Hernandez isn’t available, they are tied to toolsy types, mostly high schoolers: Steele Hall, Jace LaViolette and Billy Carlson come up the most. This is about where Josh Hammond’s range begins, but he could also go in the 20s.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 5
The White Sox are casting a wide net because of where they pick. I think Doyle — and probably Carlson and Parker, too — stops here if he happens to slide this far, while Steele Hall is also in the mix. The top tier of talent in the eyes of most evaluators is at least eight players and maybe as many as a dozen, so Chicago will have to be reactive to who is left over. But the White Sox probably will get one of the players they target from that tier.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Top 150 rank: 27
This is about where the top college righties — Kyson Witherspoon and Omaha hero Gage Wood — come into the mix. This is also where that second cut of college position players, with Arquette and Irish gone in this scenario, start to come into consideration depending on what a team prefers: shortstops Wehiwa Aloy, Gavin Kilen and Marek Houston and outfielders Summerhill and Jace LaViolette. The A’s have been tied to Summerhill all spring, and he probably goes in this range and fits the type of player they’ve taken in the past. He’ll also move up in my rankings in the next update.
Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (Alabama)
Top 150 rank: 11
Texas is right in the middle of Hall’s range and I think his most likely landing spot. The Rangers are probably straddling the line between picking up a top-tier player who might get to this spot and leading off the next tier of players, which will lean more toward prep prospects and upside. I think Hall is the last position player in that top tier. Texas is also one of the teams most in on New York prep catcher Michael Oliveto, who has interest as high as the comp round and could be the team’s second-round pick.
Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Top 150 rank: 10
Witherspoon has some landing spots in the top 10, but Arkansas’ Gage Wood is closing in on him as the top college righty. I think both will land just outside of the top 10. The Giants have been tied to many of the aforementioned second cut of college players, with Wehiwa Aloy and Marek Houston also coming up a lot, and Irish quite similar to recently traded former first-rounder James Tibbs.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 24
The Rays are tied to the top prep position players, as usual, with Hall, Jaden Fauske, Sean Gamble, Dean Moss and Josh Hammond mentioned the most — though there are also some college players tied to this pick, with Kilen leading the pack. The Rays pick again at Nos. 37 and 42, and there’s a chance most of those prep players will still be around for an overslot bonus, so grabbing a rising college bat who should go by the 20th pick is a good strategy.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (California)
Top 150 rank: 13
I’m a big believer in Fien, and he fits around here or in the next half-dozen picks or so. The Red Sox were also heavy on Kilen out of high school, or I could see them being swayed by Gage Wood’s outstanding close to the college season.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 21
I was high on Wood’s upside early on, having him go to the Cubs at the next pick in the last mock I did. After his historic MCWS performance, I think the consensus is he belongs in this general area, maybe as high as Nos. 12 or 13, but probably gone by 20 or 24. Wood, for the right team, could be rushed to the upper level of the minors for a potential big league look in relief as a way to limit his innings but also develop his pitchability against better hitters. Minnesota is mostly tied to college players here, and that’s who should be going in this range, though they’re also in on prep third baseman Xavier Neyens.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Top 150 rank: 14
Aloy could go a half-dozen picks higher or even a bit lower than this, as the college bats in this tier are seemingly in a different order for every team. Wood still makes sense here, too, especially as a potential quick mover, along with other power bats such as Jace LaViolette, Xavier Neyens, Andrew Fischer, Josh Hammond and Tate Southisene.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Top 150 rank: 15
The Diamondbacks tend to look for contact-oriented types who fit at up-the-middle positions with their high picks. College players Caden Bodine, Houston and Kilen, as well as high schoolers Slater de Brun, Daniel Pierce and Kayson Cunningham all fit here and at their next pick, No. 29.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Top 150 rank: 9
Many think LaViolette’s slide would end here given Baltimore’s history of taking power-and-patience types with some defensive value. Xavier Neyens is also commonly connected to the Orioles here, among other position players being named at the picks in this range. But a number of those high school players could get floated to Baltimore’s next picks at 30 and 31.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Top 150 rank: 35
Bodine’s range starts in the middle of the round with numbers-oriented teams being on him most due to his contact rates and framing prowess, both attributes that Milwaukee emphasizes. Lots of contact-oriented bats are tied here, such as Kilen, Houston, Slater de Brun and Daniel Pierce. I could also see this being a possible floor for Wood.
Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Washington)
Top 150 rank: 19
Houston has been tied to a number of the standout athletic testers in the prep class such as Neyens, Tate Southisene, Josh Hammond and Sean Gamble. I could also see this being a floor for power-oriented college bats such as LaViolette and Aloy, with some overlap between the Astros’ targets and which player the Orioles take at No. 19.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Top 150 rank: 28
Bremner has been a bit disappointing this season but has now fallen enough that he’s a strong value for a team to get in the 20s with a number of landing spots throughout the comp round. I think this Braves pick will be a nice landing spot for college talent with Houston, Wood and Bodine also mentioned here.
Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (North Carolina)
Top 150 rank: 18
Hammond has a number of potential landing spots starting around No. 10 and ending somewhere in the mid-20s. Given Hammond’s two-way exploits, there are parallels here with Austin Riley, a player Royals scouting director Brian Bridges drafted while with Atlanta. I’d expect prep pitching and/or a prep shortstop (lots of names are mentioned, especially given Kansas City’s history) at their next few picks.
Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Top 150 rank: 53
Fischer is rising due to his strong performance in the SEC this year, and while he’s likely still behind Irish, he might be sneaking up on LaViolette with a chance to go in the top 20 picks. I think Detroit is looking to pair a college player with a high school player between this pick and its next (34) and will be looking mostly at left-handed hitters. As you can guess, that means a lot of different players have been tied to these two picks. Slater de Brun, Cam Cannarella, Jaden Fauske and Kayson Cunningham come up the most.
Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (Oregon)
Top 150 rank: 16
De Brun is believed to be in play for Arizona at No. 18 but otherwise probably lands somewhere in the 20s. The Padres are tied to a number of high school players here — Dax Kilby, Quentin Young, Kruz Schoolcraft and Matthew Fisher, among others — but also seem to be in on some college players such as Ethan Conrad and Bremner. I’d predict they go with a high schooler, especially given their history.
Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy (Florida)
Top 150 rank: 23
The Phillies are considering some high school players with upside, as you’d expect, and if the board plays out this way, Gamble, Daniel Pierce or Kayson Cunningham all fit. There’s a good shot they would look to pair this pick with a prep arm at their next pick.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (Nevada)
Top 150 rank: 22
I think the Guardians will be in on what’s left of the upside prep position player crop along with being opportunistic if a college player such as Fischer, Wood, Bodine or Bremner falls this far.
Prospect promotion incentive picks
28. Kansas City Royals: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (Georgia)
Compensation picks
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
31. Baltimore Orioles: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (Georgia)
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy HS (Illinois)
Competitive balance picks
33. Boston Red Sox: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
34. Detroit Tigers: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (Florida)
35. Seattle Mariners: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
36. Minnesota Twins: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
These three teams had their first-round picks moved down 10 slots due to exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax. We’ll include them so all 30 teams have a projected pick.
Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
Top 150 rank: 57
Taylor has a lot of interest in the comp round and doesn’t have an enormous upside, but he could be quick moving with 55-grade hit and power grades.
J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
Top 150 rank: 50
Middleton has a lot of interest from a late-first-round to an early-second-round pick as a power arm with starter feel and gaudy numbers this spring. He’s similar as a prospect to two top picks in last year’s draft, college righties Ben Hess and Bryce Cunningham.
Quentin Young, SS, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
Top 150 rank: 101
Young, nephew of Dmitri and Delmon Young, is tied to the Dodgers and Padres and has lots of late momentum despite his high whiff rates in the spring and last summer. That’s due to his gargantuan upside as a 6-foot-6 infielder with plus-plus raw power that might be 80-grade one day; he’ll be moving up in the update of my top 150 rankings. The Dodgers also have the 41st pick, and while I have them tied to a number of arms, I landed on Louisville’s Patrick Forbes.
Sports
Kiley McDaniel’s favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects
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Kiley McDaniel
With Day 1 of the 2025 MLB draft complete, it’s time to look at which picks in the first round stood out most.
After weeks of speculation about the various directions the Washington Nationals could go with the No. 1 pick, they surprised the industry by taking Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits — and the Los Angeles Angels followed up with a surprising pick of their own at No. 2 by taking UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner
Though the nature of the baseball draft means that some of the picks we aren’t quite sure about on Day 1 will become clearer when we see how teams spread their bonus allotment around later in the draft, here are the early picks I liked the most and some eye-opening selections along with the top players still available entering Day 2.
Five favorite moves
Mariners and Pirates get their guys
The buzz leading up to the draft was that Kade Anderson was atop the Mariners’ draft board and Seth Hernandez was the top target (after Willits, who wasn’t going to get there) of the Pirates. Seattle was the other team taking a long look at Hernandez, but the shenanigans at the top two picks (more on that later) means that both Seattle and Pittsburgh got their preferred arms.
A’s select Arnold and Taylor
The Athletics had only two picks on Day 1 but received excellent values at each. Jamie Arnold was the top prospect in the draft entering the season and seemed primed to go somewhere between No. 2 and No. 8 after an uneven season. He somehow was the prospect left holding the short straw, falling to the 11th pick. Devin Taylor was in the mix at multiple picks in the comp round but lasted five selections into the second round.
Twins embrace risk with Quick and Young
The Twins took two hit-first college infielders as their first picks last year (Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge), took another one in the 2023 second round (Luke Keaschall), and two more in the top two rounds in 2022 (Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel) — and also took one with their first pick this year in Marek Houston.
What interested me though is what Minnesota did after that, taking big swings with the upside of Riley Quick (four potential plus pitches but below-average command) and Quentin Young (80-grade power potential with big questions on contact rate).
Phillies try to jump the reliever trade market?
Gage Wood has a chance to start long term but can also go straight to the upper minors — if not the big leagues — and potentially help the bullpen later this season, like a trade deadline addition. The Phillies’ next pick, Cade Obermueller, is another possible starter who also could move quickly as a lefty turning 22 later this month with two knockout pitches in his fastball/slider combo. Odds are good that at least one of them can provide big league value in the next 12 months if Philly wants to utilize them that way.
The Red Sox land Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson
The Red Sox are interested in creating more pitching depth and selected a number of interesting arms on Day 1. Kyson Witherspoon had a lot of interest in the top 10, but the Red Sox got him at No. 15.
He’ll need to sharpen his execution a notch and his short arm action is unique, but there’s midrotation upside. Marcus Phillips has a chance to start but could also bring another distinctive look as a late-inning arm with four plus pitches from a low slot and a triple-digit fastball. Anthony Eyanson is a different sort, with fringy fastball velocity but standout command along with a slider and splitter that keep hitters off-balance.
Five eye-openers
Eli Willits at No. 1
The buzz ahead of the draft was that there were three players in play for the top pick and Willits was my third-ranked player in the class, so the same group is what I would’ve been considering — and I love Willits as a player. The bonus will be a factor in evaluating how successful this pick will be viewed — I’ll guess it starts with an eight — but I think this will be seen as a solid decision, as long as Kade Anderson or Ethan Holliday don’t become stars.
Tyler Bremner at No. 2
The biggest piece of late buzz I was hearing is that Bremner was in play at No. 3 to the Mariners. I didn’t hear his name at all at No. 2 so that made this pick the first shocker in the draft.
Bremner was considered in this area (on a deal) because he could easily be the best pitcher in this class — but only if he can develop a better slider, which isn’t a small if. The Angels seem to have a thought about how to solve this, and how he progresses will be one of the more followed storylines of this draft.
Tigers take Yost and Oliveto
I like both players, but it’s fascinating that these two and the most-rumored prep hitter tied to Detroit that they didn’t take (Coy James, who had a tough summer) were all missing strong 2024 summer performances.
Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto were the only two prep position players in the first-round mix who weren’t in the major national events on the summer circuit, thus creating a lot of uncertainty about how to project them.
The Tigers are right to assume this could create a potential quick gain in value if Yost and Oliveto can perform early in their pro careers, but I don’t remember seeing a team double down on lack of summer exposure in the early rounds.
Orioles take two catchers in the first round, and two pitchers in the second
It’s certainly a bit odd that the Orioles took two college catchers with their first two picks after taking another one (Ethan Anderson) in the second round last year. Obviously, teams don’t draft for big league need — the O’s already have Adley Rutschman — and they need at least two catchers at all four full season minor league affiliates, it’s just odd to see them invest in this position early multiple times. And after all of the position players they have drafted under Mike Elias, they did sneak in two arms on Day 1 with Joseph Dzierwa (a command-forward lefty) and J.T. Quinn (one of my favorite college relievers with the traits to start in pro ball).
Guardians lean into power
The Guardians often draft, or sign internationally, hit-first players who are often underpowered, with Steven Kwan a prominent example. They swerved a lot this year, taking Jace LaViolette with their first pick (I compare him to Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo; he hit .258 this season) and Nolan Schubart (24% strikeout rate, 22% in-zone whiff rate) with their fifth pick on Day 1. Those two have big power and strong pull/lift rates, and LaViolette has the athleticism to play center field, so there’s real talent, it’s just not usually the type that the Guardians have targeted.
Best available for Day 2
Listed by top 250 draft rankings
43. Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.)
53. Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)
55. Brock Sell, CF, Tokay HS (Calif.)
61. Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (Ill.)
69. Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
70. Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
71. Mason Pike, RHP, Puyallup HS (Wash.)
72. Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (Ill.)
73. Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (N.C.)
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
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2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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