Even after US strikes, Iran may still have the ability to make a nuclear bomb

Published

3 hours ago

June 23, 2025

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It would be sensible to wait until the dust has settled before judging whether the US strikes on Iran were, in Donald Trump’s, words, “a spectacular military success”.

And when dropping bombs that weigh more than 13 tonnes each, there’s going to be a lot of dust.

The Pentagon says the operation against Iran’s three largest nuclear facilities involved 125 military aircraft, warships and submarines, including the largest operational strike by B2 bombers in history.

Follow latest: Iran considering ‘all options’ after US strikes

The B-2s dropped 14 of America’s most powerful GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on the Natanz uranium enrichment plant and Iran’s most sophisticated nuclear facility at Fordow.

The first time, according to the Pentagon, the weapons have been used in a military operation.

The Fordow complex, buried deep in a mountain, was the only site not previously damaged by Israeli strikes over the last few days.

The use of multiple GBU-57 bombs at Fordow is telling.

Despite their size, it was known that one of them would be insufficient to penetrate 80+ metres of solid rock believed to shelter Iran’s most sophisticated uranium enrichment technology deep within Fordow.

Satellite images reveal three visible holes at two different strike points on the mountainside above the complex.

The sites appear to be close to what may have been ventilation shafts – possibly chosen to maximise damage below and render the facility useless.

Using several of the bombs in the same location is likely designed to allow each to penetrate further than the first before detonating.

If nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow were destroyed – as the US claims – or even crippled, it would certainly halt Iran’s ability to enrich the Uranium needed to make a viable nuclear weapon.

But that’s not the same as preventing Iran’s ability to make a nuclear bomb. To do that, they need “weapons-grade” uranium; the necessary metal-shaping, explosives and timing technology needed to trigger nuclear fission in the bomb; and a mechanism for delivering it.

The facilities targeted in the US raid are dedicated to achieving the first objective. Taking naturally occurring uranium ore, which contains around 0.7% uranium 235 – the isotope needed for nuclear fission – and concentrating it.

The centrifuges you hear about are the tools needed to enrich U-235 to the 90% purity needed for a compact “implosion”-type warhead that can be delivered by a missile.

And the reality is Iran’s centrifuges have been spinning for a long time.

United Nations nuclear inspectors warned in May that Iran had at least 408kg of uranium “enriched” to 60%.

Getting to that level represents 90% of the time and effort to get to 90% U-235. And those 400kg would yield enough of that weapons-grade uranium to make nine nuclear weapons, the inspectors concluded.

The second element is something Iran has also been working on for two decades.

Precisely shaping uranium metal and making shaped explosive charges to crush it in the right way to achieve “criticality”, the spark for the sub-atomic chain reaction that releases the terrifying energy in a nuclear explosion.

In its recent bombing campaign, Israel is thought to have targeted facilities where Iranian nuclear scientists were doing some of that work.

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But unlike the industrial processes needed to enrich uranium, these later steps can be carried out in laboratory-sized facilities. Easier to pack up and move, and easier to hide from prying eyes.

Given that it’s understood Iran already moved enriched uranium out of Fordow ahead of the US strike, it’s far from certain that Iran has, in fact, lost its ability to make a bomb.

And while the strikes may have delayed the logistics, it’s possible they’ve emboldened a threatened Iran to intensify its warhead-making capability if it does still have one.

Making a more compact implosion-based warhead is not easy. There is debate among experts about how advanced Iran is along that road.

But if it felt sufficiently motivated, it does have other, less sophisticated nuclear options.

Even 60% enriched uranium, of which – remember – it has a lot, can be coaxed to criticality in a much larger, cruder nuclear device.

This wouldn’t pose as much threat to its enemies, as it would be too heavy to fit on even the best of Iran’s long-range missiles.

But it would, nonetheless, elevate Iran to the status of a nuclear power.

World

Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about Operation Midnight Hammer as US strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities

Published

3 hours ago

June 23, 2025

admin

Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about Operation Midnight Hammer as US strikes Iran's nuclear facilities

Details are emerging about the US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The US military has provided details about which sites have been hit and what military elements have been used, as President Donald Trump hailed the attack on social media.

From the number of bunker buster bombs dropped to where they hit, here’s what we know so far.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

How did ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ unfold?

The US’s most senior military official gave details of how the attack, named Operation Midnight Hammer, unfolded.

General Dan Caine, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, said that at midnight on Friday, a large “B-2 strike package of bombers” launched from the US, flying east across the Atlantic.

To maintain the element of surprise, some other bombers flew west into the Pacific.

During the 18-hour flight, the planes underwent multiple rounds of refuelling.

As the seven B-2 bombers entered Iran, the US deployed “several decoys”, according to Gen Caine, and a US submarine launched more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Isfahan nuclear site.

At around 6.40pm EST on Saturday, the first B-2 bomber dropped two GBU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator weapons, known as bunker buster bombs, on Fordow.

“The remaining bombers then hit their targets,” said Gen Caine, with 14 GBU-57s dropped in total.

Bunker buster bombs are designed to explode twice. Once to breach the ground surface, and again, once the bomb has burrowed down to a certain depth.

Israel has bunker busters in its arsenal but does not have the much more powerful GBU-57, which can only be launched from the B-2 bomber and was believed to be the only bomb capable of breaching Fordow.

This attack was the GBU-57s’ first operational use.

More than 75 weapons were used in total, including 14 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs, and 125 aircraft took part.

The New York Times reported a US official as saying a B-2 also dropped two of the GBU-57s on the Natanz nuclear site.

The B-2s were all heading back towards the US by 7.05pm (EST), Gen Caine added, and he said the US military were not aware of any shots fired at the American jets by Iranian aircraft or air defences on the ground.

Which sites were hit?

America says it has hit the three key locations in Iran’s nuclear programme.

They include Isfahan, the location of a significant research base, as well as uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

Natanz was believed to have been previously damaged in Israeli strikes after bombs disrupted power to the centrifuge hall, possibly destroying the machines indirectly.

Details about the damage in the US strikes are not yet known, although Mr Trump said the three sites had been “obliterated”.

The US secretary of defence Pete Hegseth said the US had “devastated the Iranian nuclear programme”.

However, most of the highly enriched uranium at the Fordow nuclear facility was moved to an undisclosed location ahead of the attack, a senior Iranian source told the Reuters news agency.

Personnel numbers were also reduced at the site, according to the report.

Satellite images from Fordow show cargo trucks lining up at the entrance of the nuclear site in recent days.

How has Iran responded so far?

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned that the US strikes “will have everlasting consequences”, adding that his country “reserves all options” to retaliate.

“The events this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences,” Mr Araghchi wrote on X. “Each and every member of the UN must be alarmed over this extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behaviour.”

Iran has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to “maintain international peace and condemn the US strikes”, according to state media.

Multiple places in Israel have been hit by Iranian missiles in response.

Several explosions have been heard over Tel Aviv with Israeli media saying missiles have hit northern and central Israel, including in Haifa, Ness Ziona, Rishon LeZion and Tel Aviv.

Sixteen casualties were reported by the country’s emergency services.

Abbas Golroo, head of the Iranian parliament’s foreign policy committee, also said in a statement on social media Iran could pull out of efforts to limit the spread of nuclear technology and weapons, called the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

He cited Article 10 of the treaty, which states that an NPT member has “the right to withdraw from the treaty if it decides that extraordinary events have jeopardised the supreme interests of its country”.

World

Bonus episode: Trump bombs Iran

Published

3 hours ago

June 23, 2025

admin

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

In this bonus episode, Richard and Yalda get together and talk about President Trump’s decision to strike three nuclear sites in Iran.

Yalda is in Jerusalem and Richard is in Tel Aviv where both of them have been reporting all night long.

Yalda reveals what her contacts are telling her about the extent of the damage done to the sites. They then ask, what could happen next?

To get in touch or to share questions, email theworld@sky.uk

World

Iraq’s delicate balancing act – where Iran-aligned militia have vowed to attack Americans

Published

3 hours ago

June 23, 2025

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Iraq's delicate balancing act - where Iran-aligned militia have vowed to attack Americans

Iraq is no different to any other country in the region – anxiously waiting to see what happens next after America’s multiple bomb strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Where it differs is that Iraq, caught bang in the middle of the war between Israel and Iran, and now the United States, has to juggle its relationships with both Tehran and Washington DC.

The Shia Muslim-dominated government of Iraq is close to Iran, and Iran’s influence on Iraq cannot be underestimated.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

Shia militia groups in Iraq, while nominally answering to Baghdad, take much of their guidance from Tehran, so their positions must be taken into consideration by the Iraqi government.

At the same time, Iraq needs the United States because it provides stability and support in the region, and the US military remains the most potent force in stopping terror organisations like Islamic State from rejuvenating themselves.

There are at least 2,500 American personnel stationed in Iraq, and the US has major interests here, as it does across the Middle East and Gulf states.

That US presence itself poses problems – Iran has threatened to attack American interests and personnel across the region.

The US bases and personnel, like its airbase in Erbil in northern Iraq, could easily be attacked and are well within the distance of Iran’s short-range missiles.

Further, the home-based Iraqi Shia militias are already on record as saying they will attack bases and personnel if the United States were to join in Israel’s war with Iran, which has now happened.

Iraq is furious that its airspace has been used by Israel to attack Iran, but is powerless to do anything about it.

Equally, the Iraqi government’s writ does not run far with the militias, who could act independently, embarrassing the government, or worse, leading to attacks within Iraq itself.

In a press conference given by the US defence secretary and US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, the message to Iran and its proxies here in Iraq and in Syria was that any attack on American assets would be “a very bad idea”.

They couldn’t be clearer in their warning.

President Trump, they pointed out, wants an end to the matter, but is more than prepared to carry out attacks on all hostile entities.

If Iran follows its publicly announced course of action to retaliate not just against Israel, but against American interests, military personnel, and even civilians here in Iraq and the wider region, it runs the risk of a serious degradation of the country if America were to strike back.

Given that Iraq must play this delicate balancing act between the two powers, ultimately, it doesn’t want to be dragged into the conflict.

What it wants – and needs – is for diplomacy to resume.