Iran may decide that killing Americans is the best way to retaliate
The US president has given the Iranians a choice: negotiate or face devastating escalation.
The next move is down to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
He has spent his entire life trying to roll back American power and influence in the region.
Expecting him to negotiate with the US now, with B-2 bombers held to his head, is a tall order.
More likely, he will order some kind of retaliation – at least for now.
He will want to deter Donald Trump from launching more attacks and may calculate that killing Americans is the best way of doing so.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Hegseth: ‘World should listen to Trump’
The ayatollah knows that could drive a wedge between Trump and his MAGA supporters, who say America is getting drawn into yet another Middle Eastern war, risking US lives.
There are plenty of US targets for Iran to aim at, with bases throughout the Middle East: in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
The Iranians could attack them directly with drones and missiles, or use proxies in the region, Iran-backed militias in Iraq, or the Houthis, based in Yemen.
Iran could threaten shipping and the oil industry in the Persian Gulf. If the Gulf becomes a war zone, expect a big hit to the global economy and the price of oil to rocket.
But all that would invite massive retaliation from the US. The Trump administration has spelt that out in no uncertain terms.
America has sent an awesome amount of firepower to the region: three aircraft carrier groups bristling with fighter jets and submarines loaded with cruise missiles.
More about Ali Khamenei:
Listen: From accidental to absolute leader – who is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Who is Iran’s supreme leader
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
PM: ‘My focus is on de-escalation’
So the Iranians may instead go for the kind of asymmetric warfare they excel at. The UK could be in the firing line too. We could see Iranian terrorist attacks here in Britain.
One way or another, this is almost certain to escalate, but could it widen and draw other countries into the conflict?
Russia and Iran have a strategic partnership agreement, but it doesn’t require Russia to come to Tehran’s support.
Iran is also China’s closest ally in the Middle East, but Beijing is also likely to sit this one out and watch from the sidelines.
Wars have unintended consequences, but there are strong reasons for other powers to avoid becoming involved in this one.
Read more:
What we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities
Iran may still have ability to make nuclear bomb
Looking further ahead, there are two competing priorities to watch. For Iran’s leadership, it is all about survival, to absorb the blows and live to fight another day, and eventually build the bomb if it can, to stop this ever happening to them again.
And Israel is equally determined that will not happen.
One method would be regime change in Iran, but its leadership is proving resilient so far, despite the mounting challenges it faces.
Instead, Israel faces a long period of managing the threat posed by Iran.
It will need to monitor the Iranians, watching for signs they are developing their missile programme, meddling in the region or reviving their nuclear project, and cut them down to size when necessary.
That could mean years more of military action and could be hugely costly for Israel and its backers, the US taxpayers.
In summary, Iran’s leadership is in a very tight spot and is likely to lash out, but the future will not be a walk in the park for Israel, either, while there are big risks for America, too.
World
Major wildfire on Greek island of Chios leads to evacuations – as officials warn ‘situation remains critical’
Nearly 200 firefighters are battling a major wildfire on the Greek island of Chios.
The fire started on Sunday in three separate locations near the main town, which is also called Chios. The flames were fanned by strong winds and turned into one large blaze.
Local media footage and photos showed firefighters battling towering flames burning through woodland and farmland as night fell. Power cuts have also been reported.
Greek authorities sent fresh evacuation notifications for two areas near Chios town on Monday morning.
People watch a wildfire approaching. Pic: Politischios.gr /AP
Push alerts have been sent to mobile phones in the area urging people to evacuate a total of 16 villages, settlements and neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the town.
“The situation remains critical as firefighting forces are still dealing with many active fronts, several of which being near hamlets,” a Greek government spokesman said.
The fire department said 190 firefighters were trying to control the fire on Monday, with strong winds hampering their efforts.
Pic: Politischios/AP
Some 35 vehicles, five helicopters and two water-dropping planes were also involved in the effort.
A specialist fire department arson investigation team has been sent to the eastern Aegean island to look into the causes.
Read more from Sky News:
Suspected spy arrested in Crete
Powerful space telescope images show ‘peek of cosmos’
Wildfires are common during Greece’s hot, dry summers but authorities have said climate change is fuelling bigger and more frequent blazes.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Last year, hundreds of tourists and residents were forced to flee wildfires on the holiday island of Kos.
In 2023, forest fires killed at least 20 people in the north of the country and forced 19,000 people to flee the island of Rhodes.
World
22 killed after suicide bomber opens fire at church in Syria – and then detonates explosive vest
At least 22 people have been killed after a suicide bomber opened fire at a church in Syria – and then detonated an explosive vest.
This is the first such incident since Bashar al Assad was toppled in December, and officials claim the attacker was a member of Islamic State.
It happened at a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus, with estimates suggesting that 350 worshippers were praying there at the time.
Pic: White Helmets via Reuters
Witnesses said the perpetrator had his face covered when he began shooting – and blew himself up as crowds attempted to remove him from the building.
A security source told Reuters that two men were involved in the attack, with a priest saying he saw a second gunman at the entrance.
Officials say 63 people were injured, and children were among the casualties.
Syria’s information minister, Hamza Mostafa, condemned the terrorist attack – writing on X: “This cowardly act goes against the civic values that bring us together.
“We will not back down from our commitment to equal citizenship… and we also affirm the state’s pledge to exert all its efforts to combat criminal organisations.”
Read more world news:
Live updates after US strikes Iran
Putin threatens nuclear strike on Ukraine
Pic: Reuters
Reports suggest that IS has attempted to attack several churches in Syria since Assad fell, but this is the first time they have succeeded.
Footage filmed by Syria’s civil defence, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction inside the church – including bloodied floors and shattered pews.
The Greek foreign ministry says it “unequivocally condemns the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing”, and called on Syria “to guarantee the safety” of Christians with new measures.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike