Iraq is no different to any other country in the region – anxiously waiting to see what happens next after America’s multiple bomb strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Where it differs is that Iraq, caught bang in the middle of the war between Israel and Iran, and now the United States, has to juggle its relationships with both Tehran and Washington DC.
The Shia Muslim-dominated government of Iraq is close to Iran, and Iran’s influence on Iraq cannot be underestimated.
Shia militia groups in Iraq, while nominally answering to Baghdad, take much of their guidance from Tehran, so their positions must be taken into consideration by the Iraqi government.
Image: Protesters carry Iranian flags during a rally to show solidarity with Iran in Iraq on Saturday. Pic: AP
At the same time, Iraq needs the United States because it provides stability and support in the region, and the US military remains the most potent force in stopping terror organisations like Islamic State from rejuvenating themselves.
There are at least 2,500 American personnel stationed in Iraq, and the US has major interests here, as it does across the Middle East and Gulf states.
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6:18
‘Iran’s position is precious but it has to respond’
That US presence itself poses problems – Iran has threatened to attack American interests and personnel across the region.
The US bases and personnel, like its airbase in Erbil in northern Iraq, could easily be attacked and are well within the distance of Iran’s short-range missiles.
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0:26
Iran ambassador: ‘Everything is under consideration’
Further, the home-based Iraqi Shia militias are already on record as saying they will attack bases and personnel if the United States were to join in Israel’s war with Iran, which has now happened.
Iraq is furious that its airspace has been used by Israel to attack Iran, but is powerless to do anything about it.
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0:42
Israel begins new wave of strikes in Iran
Equally, the Iraqi government’s writ does not run far with the militias, who could act independently, embarrassing the government, or worse, leading to attacks within Iraq itself.
In a press conference given by the US defence secretary and US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, the message to Iran and its proxies here in Iraq and in Syria was that any attack on American assets would be “a very bad idea”.
They couldn’t be clearer in their warning.
President Trump, they pointed out, wants an end to the matter, but is more than prepared to carry out attacks on all hostile entities.
If Iran follows its publicly announced course of action to retaliate not just against Israel, but against American interests, military personnel, and even civilians here in Iraq and the wider region, it runs the risk of a serious degradation of the country if America were to strike back.
Given that Iraq must play this delicate balancing act between the two powers, ultimately, it doesn’t want to be dragged into the conflict.
What it wants – and needs – is for diplomacy to resume.
Israeli troops in Gaza have received the remains of another hostage.
They have now been taken to the National Institute for Forensic Medicine to be examined.
If it is confirmed that they belong to a hostage, this would mean there are five bodies left to be returned under the terms of a ceasefire that began on 10 October.
Israel has also released the bodies of 285 Palestinians – but this identification process is harder because DNA labs are not allowed in Gaza.
Last night’s transfer is a sign of progress in the fragile truce, but some of the remains handed over in recent weeks have not belonged to any of the missing hostages.
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0:31
October: Heavy machinery enters Gaza to clear rubble
At times, Israel has accused Hamas of violating the agreement – however, US President Donald Trump has previously acknowledged conditions on the ground in Gaza are difficult.
Meanwhile, UN officials have warned the levels of humanitarian aid flowing into the territory fall well short of what Palestinians require.
Deputy spokesperson Farhan Haqq said more than 200,000 metric tons of aid is positioned to move in – but only 37,000 tons has arrived so far.
Earlier on Friday, hundreds of mourners attended the military funeral of an Israeli-American soldier whose body was returned on Sunday.
Image: Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP
Captain Omer Neutra was 21 when he was killed by Hamas militants who then took his body into Gaza following the October 7th attacks.
Admiral Brad Cooper, who heads up US Central Command, said during the service: “He is the son of two nations.
“He embodied the best of both the United States and Israel. Uniquely, he has firmly cemented his place in history as the hero of two countries.”
His mother Orna addressed her son’s coffin – and said: “We are all left with the vast space between who you were to us and to the world in your life and what you were yet to become. And with the mission to fill that gap with the light and goodness that you are.”
Image: IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP
In other developments, Turkish prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 36 other Israeli officials on charges of carrying out “genocide” in Gaza.
They have been accused of crimes against humanity – but the move is highly symbolic since these officials were unlikely to enter Turkey.
Foreign minister Gideon Saar dismissed the warrants, and said: “Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant Erdogan.”
In Soviet times, Western observers would scrutinise video footage of state occasions, like military parades on Red Square, to try to learn more about Kremlin hierarchy.
Who was positioned closest to the leader? What did the body language say? Which officials were in and out of favour?
In some ways, not much has changed.
The footage present-day Kremlinologists are currently pouring over is from Wednesday’s landmark meeting of Russia’s Security Council, in which Vladimir Putin told his top officials to start drafting proposals for a possible nuclear weapons test.
It was an important moment. Not one you’d expect a trusted lieutenant to miss. But Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, was conspicuously absent – the only permanent member of the Council not present.
According to the Russian business daily, Kommersant, his absence was “coordinated”.
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Image: US President Donald Trump meets with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP
Image: Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP
That episode alone would have been enough to raise eyebrows.
But coupled with the selection of a more junior official to lead the Russian delegation at the upcoming G20 summit (a role Lavrov has filled in recent years) – well, that’s when questions get asked, namely: Has Moscow’s top diplomat been sidelined?
The question has grown loud enough to force the Kremlin into a denial, but it’s done little to quell speculation that Lavrov has fallen out of favour.
Image: Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters
Rumours of a rift have been mounting since Donald Trump called off a planned summit with Putin in Budapest last month, following a phone call between Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
According to the Financial Times, it was Lavrov’s uncompromising stance that prompted the White House to put the summit on ice.
Conversations I had with diplomatic sources here at the time revealed a belief that Lavrov had either dropped the ball or gone off-script. Whether it was by accident or by design, his diplomacy (or lack of it) torpedoed the summit and seemingly set back a US-Russia rapprochement.
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2:19
September: Anyone downing aircraft in Russian airspace will ‘regret it’
That would’ve angered Putin, who is keen to engage with Washington, not only on Ukraine but on other issues, like nuclear arms control.
More importantly, perhaps, it made the Russian president appear weak – unable to control his foreign minister. And Putin is not a man who likes to be undermined.
Football fans will be familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson’s golden rule of management: Never let a player grow bigger than the club. Putin operates in a similar fashion. Loyalty is valued extremely highly.
Image: Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters
Image: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP
Image: Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters
If Lavrov has indeed been sidelined, it would be a very significant moment indeed. The 75-year-old has been the face of Russian diplomacy for more than two decades and effectively Putin’s right-hand man for most of the Kremlin leader’s rule.
Known for his abrasive style and acerbic putdowns, Lavrov has also been a vociferous cheerleader for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And in the melee that immediately followed the presidents’ press statements at the summit, I remember racing over to Lavrov as he was leaving and yelling a question to him through the line of security guards.
He didn’t even turn. Instead, he just shouted back: “Who are you?”
It was typical of a diplomatic heavyweight, who’s known for not pulling his punches. But has that uncompromising approach finally taken its toll?
But as the tropical rain beat down on the tarpaulin roof of this temporary summit venue, it’s hard not to feel the air going out of the process.
Image: The Prince of Wales is passionate about fighting climate change. Pic: Reuters
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3:05
COP30: India’s climate refugees
Sir Keir and Prince William’s presence doesn’t make up for the geopolitical weight of the elephants not in the room.
The leaders of China, the US and India – the world’s three largest contributors to climate change – are no-shows.
Donald Trump’s highly-publicised decision to withdraw America from the UN climate talks is a blow.
Before Mr Trump, America – the world’s largest economy, largest oil and gas producer, and major market for renewable energy – had serious deal-making power here.
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Having formally withdrawn, there is no US delegation.
And, as far as I can tell, any US broadcasters either, so for Americans, this meeting may as well not be happening at all.
Image: Pic: Reuters
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26:13
Cop out: Is net zero dead?
Without the US, things will be harder.
But does that mean the process is doomed?
The leaders of China and India may be absent but they’ve sent high-level delegations.
China is represented by vice-premier Ding Xuexiang, the country’s most high-ranking politician after President Xi himself.
And, while China and India might not be big on eco-messaging, between them they are busy driving the most rapid shift away from fossil fuels towards wind, solar and nuclear power the world has ever seen.
What’s more, the real work at these summits isn’t done by heads of state, but experienced sherpas, some of whom have trodden the nylon carpeted corridors of COP for 30 years.
Image: The Prince of Wales with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Pic: PA
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Prince takes a tumble on Brazil beach
It’s reasonable to ask what they’ve achieved in all that time.
The commitments of the Paris agreement of a decade ago have been missed by a wide margin.
The world is about to blow past 1.5 degrees of warming and almost certainly exceed two degrees as well.
But when the Paris deal was signed, the trajectory was for four degrees of warming.
There are good COPs and bad COPs, but the world is undoubtedly a safer place now than it would have been without them.