NHL draft buzz: How Blackhawks, Isles, Predators could shake up first round
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Kristen Shilton
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Greg Wyshynski
Although the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers may never stop celebrating, the NHL offseason has begun.
The past several days have included Jonathan Toews pledging to sign with the Winnipeg Jets once free agency begins, as well as a flurry of re-signings, and a trade between the Chicago Blackhawks and Seattle Kraken, with Andre Burakovsky headed to the Second City.
On Friday and Saturday of this week, the NHL draft will take place in Los Angeles, including seven rounds of prospect selections and (most likely) a handful of franchise-altering trades. Then on Tuesday, July 1, free agency officially begins.
To help make sense of it all, our reporters reached out to sources in front offices around the league for their takes on the draft, trades and the free agent class.
So ahead of this week’s flurry of action, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski deliver the latest buzz around the NHL:
Schaefer earned perspective through tragedy
Matthew Schaefer has been the projected first overall pick in this year’s draft for months, projected to land with the New York Islanders, who hold the first pick on Friday. But the Erie Otters defenseman isn’t all that concerned about where he ultimately lands.
No pressure. No stress. It’s all about enjoying the journey — a lesson Schaefer has learned the hard way.
“I’ve been through a lot,” he said recently. And that’s putting it mildly.
Schaefer lost his billet mother in late 2023. Two months later, his own mother died after a long battle with cancer. Then, during the 2025 World Junior Championship, Otters owner Jim Waters — with whom Schaefer was close — also passed away. During that same event, Schaefer broke his collarbone and missed the remainder of his season in Erie.
That would be a debilitating 12 months for anyone to endure, let alone a 17-year-old on the cusp of achieving his life-long dream of playing in the NHL. Schaefer has an infectiously upbeat attitude to it all, though. What others might view as adversity he sees as almost a superpower, and it’s helped him cope with the demands of being a highly touted prospect.
“There’s a lot worse things that can happen in life [than not being picked No. 1],” he said. “Going through injuries are super easy. I feel like when I was younger and I stubbed my toe, I probably would have thought the world was ending, but going through everything, there’s so much worse things that can happen in life. And honestly, you just gotta take the opportunities. You gotta work as hard as you can. I think just being a good person goes such a long way.”
Schaefer is quick-witted and personable, admirably earnest and entirely genuine. He’s done charity work with other kids experiencing grief-related challenges, and plans to do more volunteering with the hospital where his mother received treatment. It’s not for show, either.
Schaefer readily admits he enjoys meeting new people, and hearing their stories.
“I personally love helping people,” he said. “Respecting people, [treating them] how you’d like to be treated. Holding a door for someone, it goes such a long way. I think each and every day I just want to have a positive mindset. My mindset has changed a lot with everything. Seeing what my mom went through, having a smile on her face with cancer and everything trying to bring her down, but she wouldn’t let it bring her down. Wish I was as tough as her.”
Schaefer believes that mom will be watching when the draft takes place, and that maybe along the way she’s even suited up again in her own signature role that shaped him into the player he is today.
“My mom used to go in net and put on the equipment, and I’d shoot on her,” he recalled. “When I’m shooting pucks in the basement, she probably spiritually has the hockey equipment on, trying to save them, and I’m missing the net because she’s probably blocker saving that. There’s a lot of things I’ve learned. I’m definitely a lot stronger now.” — Shilton
Could the Islanders draft Hagens too?
James Hagens knows how badly some Islanders fans want to see the Hauppauge-born, Long Island native drafted by their team. After all, the 18-year-old Boston College center is one of their own: A kid in the stands cheering on the Islanders during playoff games at Nassau Coliseum who just happened to one day become a top NHL draft prospect.
“I still have the [rally] towel to this day,” he told me during the Stanley Cup Final. “I just remember being a little kid, screaming my lungs off. It was a small building, but it got loud.”
Hagens said he’s had people walk up to him on the golf course back home expressing hope that he’ll be an Islanders draft choice. Driving back from a workout one day, he saw a car with a “Bring Hagens Home” bumper sticker on the back.
“I just tried to duck my head and drive by. Didn’t really try to make eye contact or anything,” Hagens recalled.
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He couldn’t help but get his hopes up when he watched the Islanders win the first overall pick in the lottery. There was a time when Hagens looked like he’d go first overall in the 2025 draft. The venerable Bob McKenzie of TSN had him ranked first before the season, with nine of the 10 NHL scouts he surveyed in agreement.
There were a variety of factors for why Hagens slipped a bit this season — a great but not elite freshman season at BC, continuing concerns about this 5-11-ish frame — but chief among them was the emergence of Schaefer as the Islanders’ presumptive No. 1 overall pick.
Yet here was buzz during the Stanley Cup Final that the Islanders might seek to make a draft-day splash by taking Schaefer first overall — and then trading back into the top four again to select Hagens. It’s assumed the San Jose Sharks are drafting forward Michael Misa (Saginaw Spirit) and Hagens hasn’t been linked much with the Chicago Blackhawks at No. 3. Utah has the fourth overall pick, while Nashville is drafting fifth.
What could be in play from the Islanders? Speculation surrounds 25-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov, a restricted free agent due a sizable raise, as well as the Colorado Avalanche‘s first-round pick in 2026 that the Avs can defer to 2027. But that’s just a starting point for acquiring a top-five pick and, most importantly, a hometown offensive star.
Isles GM Mathieu Darche has talked about his charges becoming an “attacking” team. Co-owner John Collins has discussed the necessity for the franchise to make “deeper connections” with the Long Island hockey community. Hagens would seem to address both needs, either at No. 1 — or if the Islanders can hit a two-fer in the draft. — Wyshynski
Clock is ticking on Tavares in Toronto
Unless Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs undergo seriously successful couples counselling in the next week, it’s unlikely the winger will be back in blue and white this fall. That ending has been projected for months, and frankly reflects some poor asset management by the Leafs that they’re about to lose this year’s top UFA for nothing.
Is there a possibility of a sign-and-trade, or another suitor interested in acquiring Marner’s rights like Toronto GM Brad Treliving did in acquiring Chris Tanev‘s rights at last year’s draft? Sure. But again … don’t hold your breath.
Where the Leafs’ focus can and should be at this stage is on John Tavares. The latest word is that the two sides aren’t close on an extension, and Toronto can’t beat around the bush too long here. Because there are not many other viable unrestricted free agent centers available.
Sam Bennett appears determined to stay in Florida. Matt Duchene and Jonathan Toews have signed elsewhere. Beyond Tavares, the Leafs are looking at Mikael Granlund, Pius Suter or perhaps Claude Giroux.
There might not be much Toronto can recuperate from the Marner situation. Tavares is the opposite; he wants to be a Leaf and is willing to negotiate.
Dallas just inked Duchene to a four-year, $18 million extension. Yes, there’s some creative accounting in there between the base salary and signing bonuses coupled with Duchene’s continued buyout package from Nashville. However, a $4.5 million average annual value contract for Tavares isn’t looking so bad when you consider the Leafs can not lose a second-line center that just had one of his best seasons ever at age 34 and won’t have much choice on a replacement if Tavares does feel undersold and accept another team’s offer (of which there could be many).
This is a critical juncture for Treliving to handle just right, and considering all the factors at work, there’s no time like the present for Toronto to put its best foot forward and get Tavares back under contract. — Shilton
Can Panthers bring back the big three, including Marchand?
Having covered the Panthers for multiple rounds in the playoffs, I had hours of conversations about their three key unrestricted free agents: Center Sam Bennett, defenseman Aaron Ekblad and winger/Dairy Queen enthusiast Brad Marchand.
There was a common perception about them before the Panthers hoisted the Cup for a second time, but those have shifted:
1. Bennett, who won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoffs MVP, was a lock to re-sign. While scores of teams might have doubled his base salary ($5 million), Bennett and the Panthers have been confident something would get done. Then, at the Panthers’ victory celebration at E11EVEN in Miami, he quoted “The Wolf of Wall Street” while informing fans he was not leaving while a message that read “8 more years” was displayed behind him.
2. Ekblad, who was drafted first overall by the Panthers in 2014, was iffy to re-sign. He would be coveted as a mobile right-shot defenseman with two Stanley Cups to his credit. The Panthers reportedly made an offer to Ekblad was reportedly rejected last summer, and Florida then explored the trade market for him.
But the winds have shifted here. Speculation in Sunrise was that the Panthers and Ekblad, 29, could swap a high cap number for term, which can be risky with a player that has Ekblad’s injury history. Florida really likes its current defensive depth — Ekblad with Gustav Forsling, and then Seth Jones on a second pairing, where the Panthers believe he’s perfectly cast. Ekblad now expects to stay, but as he cautioned recently: “Things seem to come down to the last minute here.”
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3. Marchand took less money in Boston on his last deal for a player of his accomplishments — he made only $8 million in base salary twice in 16 seasons with the Bruins. So the perception was that he would sign with whichever team offered the highest salary with the term he was seeking, rumored to be four years. The Maple Leafs were the focus here, in the ultimate “if you can’t beat’em, have him join’em” moment in NHL history. But suitors ranging from the Washington Capitals to the Utah Mammoth were rumored to be waiting on him.
However, the fit and success he found in Florida appears to have shifted things here, too. Marchand publicly asked GM Bill Zito to give him a contract — at a Dairy Queen, no less — and Zito has said multiple times he expects to be able to sign Bennett, Ekblad and Marchand at a cap hit that allows the Panthers “to bring in other good players.”
For what it’s worth, Marchand was caught on video at the famed Elbo Room in Fort Lauderdale telling a fan that he’s not leaving and then flashing four fingers. But it’s Marchand. He says a lot. — Wyshynski
Do the Blackhawks have a big surprise in store for Round 1?
Chicago is set to pick at No. 3. After Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa are all but guaranteed to go 1-2, the Blackhawks will be the first fascinating selection of the night.
Do they go center, or wing?
When the scouting combine in Buffalo was wrapping up, it sounded like Chicago was zeroed in on either Moncton Wildcats center Caleb Desnoyers or Brampton Steelheads winger Porter Martone.
Martone’s stock has risen even further since the start of June, and while it may have been the Blackhawks’ inclination to go center, could they pass on Martone at this point? He’s 6-3 and 207 pounds, brings a physical edge, creative playmaking, a great shot and terrific hands. Martone collected 37 goals and 98 points in 57 games last season as the Steelheads’ captain, and scouts rave about his overall ability and potential to excel in the NHL.
Chicago already has one exemplary young center in Connor Bedard. While it’s tempting to add another potential standout at the position, the draw of what Martone could bring might just be too much on which to pass. — Shilton
Oilers GM baffled by goalie decision
There’s no question that the Edmonton Oilers‘ goaltending was a detriment during their Stanley Cup Final loss to the Florida Panthers.
Stuart Skinner (.861 save percentage, 3.97 goals-against average) was pulled twice and eventually benched for Calvin Pickard (.878, 2.88) in their Game 5 loss, before returning to give up three goals on 23 shots on their Game 6 elimination. Both goalies were below-replacement level in goals saved above expected over their last five playoff games. Meanwhile, Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky chugged along at 3.1 goals saved above expected in his last five games, and did what he needed to do (.919, 2.45) in the Final.
This confuses Oilers GM Stan Bowman about his goaltending, because he argues that Edmonton had the stronger goaltending in their three previous series in the Western Conference. “Darcy Kuemper, Adin Hill and Jake Oettinger, our goalies were better than them in each of those series,” he said. “I think that’s the reason we went to the [Stanley Cup] Final. And then in the Final it flipped.”
The assumption has been that goaltending would be a priority for the Oilers this offseason, especially finding an elite-level netminder that would theoretically prevent embarrassments like having to decide which struggling goalie will start Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. But Bowman said he’s still mulling over any goalie changes for next season, with both Skinner ($2.6 million AAV) and Pickard ($1 million) signed through next season before becoming unrestricted free agents.
Bowman said changes for next season “may involve the goaltending or it could not,” and that there’s a lot of analysis that has to be done in the wake of their second loss to Florida in two seasons before making that decision.
It’s hard to fathom that the Oilers would run it back with the same battery next season, but the options to upgrade are limited. They’ve been linked to John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks, who has a 10-team no-trade list and two years left on his contract at a $6.4 million AAV. New Jersey Devils veteran Jake Allen is the best option in a thin UFA market that also includes Alexandar Georgiev (San Jose), Alex Lyon (Detroit) and Anton Forsberg (Ottawa).
Bowman said that’s part of the decision for the Oilers: Who, exactly, would be an upgrade over Skinner and Pickard in the playoffs?
“It’s not like you just go down to the corner and pick up an elite goalie,” he said. “They’re not just waiting for you to join your team. So how many are there anyways in that group?”
“If you look at the [elite] guys, some of them have had some tough playoffs. So there’s no guarantee in the goaltending world. It’s the most important [position], but it’s also in some instances not why teams win,” the GM said. “So if you have a strong enough team, then there’s been teams that win the Cup without elite goaltending and there’s been teams that won because of their goalie.” — Wyshynski
Is Nashville really open to anything?
Rumblings about the Nashville Predators continue to grow. The Predators are picking at No. 5, but are not in the typical position a team would be in with that selection.
Nashville wants to compete now. And they have a piece of capital to wield in trying to land an NHL player now from a team that might be closer to that re-tooling stage and eyeing a top prospect for their pool.
If there were to be a blockbuster happening in the first round, it feels like Nashville would be involved.
Specifically, the Preds could use a viable defenseman to shore up the blue line alongside Roman Josi. And we know from recent offseasons that GM Barry Trotz is willing and able to go all-in as necessary and get creative.
If Trotz believes in Nashville’s opportunity to rebound from a rough 2024-25 with a winning year ahead then he seems likely to consider a fair deal for an NHL-level skater. — Shilton
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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