NHL draft buzz: How Blackhawks, Isles, Predators could shake up first round
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Kristen Shilton
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Greg Wyshynski
Although the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers may never stop celebrating, the NHL offseason has begun.
The past several days have included Jonathan Toews pledging to sign with the Winnipeg Jets once free agency begins, as well as a flurry of re-signings, and a trade between the Chicago Blackhawks and Seattle Kraken, with Andre Burakovsky headed to the Second City.
On Friday and Saturday of this week, the NHL draft will take place in Los Angeles, including seven rounds of prospect selections and (most likely) a handful of franchise-altering trades. Then on Tuesday, July 1, free agency officially begins.
To help make sense of it all, our reporters reached out to sources in front offices around the league for their takes on the draft, trades and the free agent class.
So ahead of this week’s flurry of action, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski deliver the latest buzz around the NHL:
Schaefer earned perspective through tragedy
Matthew Schaefer has been the projected first overall pick in this year’s draft for months, projected to land with the New York Islanders, who hold the first pick on Friday. But the Erie Otters defenseman isn’t all that concerned about where he ultimately lands.
No pressure. No stress. It’s all about enjoying the journey — a lesson Schaefer has learned the hard way.
“I’ve been through a lot,” he said recently. And that’s putting it mildly.
Schaefer lost his billet mother in late 2023. Two months later, his own mother died after a long battle with cancer. Then, during the 2025 World Junior Championship, Otters owner Jim Waters — with whom Schaefer was close — also passed away. During that same event, Schaefer broke his collarbone and missed the remainder of his season in Erie.
That would be a debilitating 12 months for anyone to endure, let alone a 17-year-old on the cusp of achieving his life-long dream of playing in the NHL. Schaefer has an infectiously upbeat attitude to it all, though. What others might view as adversity he sees as almost a superpower, and it’s helped him cope with the demands of being a highly touted prospect.
“There’s a lot worse things that can happen in life [than not being picked No. 1],” he said. “Going through injuries are super easy. I feel like when I was younger and I stubbed my toe, I probably would have thought the world was ending, but going through everything, there’s so much worse things that can happen in life. And honestly, you just gotta take the opportunities. You gotta work as hard as you can. I think just being a good person goes such a long way.”
Schaefer is quick-witted and personable, admirably earnest and entirely genuine. He’s done charity work with other kids experiencing grief-related challenges, and plans to do more volunteering with the hospital where his mother received treatment. It’s not for show, either.
Schaefer readily admits he enjoys meeting new people, and hearing their stories.
“I personally love helping people,” he said. “Respecting people, [treating them] how you’d like to be treated. Holding a door for someone, it goes such a long way. I think each and every day I just want to have a positive mindset. My mindset has changed a lot with everything. Seeing what my mom went through, having a smile on her face with cancer and everything trying to bring her down, but she wouldn’t let it bring her down. Wish I was as tough as her.”
Schaefer believes that mom will be watching when the draft takes place, and that maybe along the way she’s even suited up again in her own signature role that shaped him into the player he is today.
“My mom used to go in net and put on the equipment, and I’d shoot on her,” he recalled. “When I’m shooting pucks in the basement, she probably spiritually has the hockey equipment on, trying to save them, and I’m missing the net because she’s probably blocker saving that. There’s a lot of things I’ve learned. I’m definitely a lot stronger now.” — Shilton
Could the Islanders draft Hagens too?
James Hagens knows how badly some Islanders fans want to see the Hauppauge-born, Long Island native drafted by their team. After all, the 18-year-old Boston College center is one of their own: A kid in the stands cheering on the Islanders during playoff games at Nassau Coliseum who just happened to one day become a top NHL draft prospect.
“I still have the [rally] towel to this day,” he told me during the Stanley Cup Final. “I just remember being a little kid, screaming my lungs off. It was a small building, but it got loud.”
Hagens said he’s had people walk up to him on the golf course back home expressing hope that he’ll be an Islanders draft choice. Driving back from a workout one day, he saw a car with a “Bring Hagens Home” bumper sticker on the back.
“I just tried to duck my head and drive by. Didn’t really try to make eye contact or anything,” Hagens recalled.
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James Hagens’ NHL draft profile
Take a look at some of the best plays for Boston College center James Hagens.
He couldn’t help but get his hopes up when he watched the Islanders win the first overall pick in the lottery. There was a time when Hagens looked like he’d go first overall in the 2025 draft. The venerable Bob McKenzie of TSN had him ranked first before the season, with nine of the 10 NHL scouts he surveyed in agreement.
There were a variety of factors for why Hagens slipped a bit this season — a great but not elite freshman season at BC, continuing concerns about this 5-11-ish frame — but chief among them was the emergence of Schaefer as the Islanders’ presumptive No. 1 overall pick.
Yet here was buzz during the Stanley Cup Final that the Islanders might seek to make a draft-day splash by taking Schaefer first overall — and then trading back into the top four again to select Hagens. It’s assumed the San Jose Sharks are drafting forward Michael Misa (Saginaw Spirit) and Hagens hasn’t been linked much with the Chicago Blackhawks at No. 3. Utah has the fourth overall pick, while Nashville is drafting fifth.
What could be in play from the Islanders? Speculation surrounds 25-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov, a restricted free agent due a sizable raise, as well as the Colorado Avalanche‘s first-round pick in 2026 that the Avs can defer to 2027. But that’s just a starting point for acquiring a top-five pick and, most importantly, a hometown offensive star.
Isles GM Mathieu Darche has talked about his charges becoming an “attacking” team. Co-owner John Collins has discussed the necessity for the franchise to make “deeper connections” with the Long Island hockey community. Hagens would seem to address both needs, either at No. 1 — or if the Islanders can hit a two-fer in the draft. — Wyshynski
Clock is ticking on Tavares in Toronto
Unless Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs undergo seriously successful couples counselling in the next week, it’s unlikely the winger will be back in blue and white this fall. That ending has been projected for months, and frankly reflects some poor asset management by the Leafs that they’re about to lose this year’s top UFA for nothing.
Is there a possibility of a sign-and-trade, or another suitor interested in acquiring Marner’s rights like Toronto GM Brad Treliving did in acquiring Chris Tanev‘s rights at last year’s draft? Sure. But again … don’t hold your breath.
Where the Leafs’ focus can and should be at this stage is on John Tavares. The latest word is that the two sides aren’t close on an extension, and Toronto can’t beat around the bush too long here. Because there are not many other viable unrestricted free agent centers available.
Sam Bennett appears determined to stay in Florida. Matt Duchene and Jonathan Toews have signed elsewhere. Beyond Tavares, the Leafs are looking at Mikael Granlund, Pius Suter or perhaps Claude Giroux.
There might not be much Toronto can recuperate from the Marner situation. Tavares is the opposite; he wants to be a Leaf and is willing to negotiate.
Dallas just inked Duchene to a four-year, $18 million extension. Yes, there’s some creative accounting in there between the base salary and signing bonuses coupled with Duchene’s continued buyout package from Nashville. However, a $4.5 million average annual value contract for Tavares isn’t looking so bad when you consider the Leafs can not lose a second-line center that just had one of his best seasons ever at age 34 and won’t have much choice on a replacement if Tavares does feel undersold and accept another team’s offer (of which there could be many).
This is a critical juncture for Treliving to handle just right, and considering all the factors at work, there’s no time like the present for Toronto to put its best foot forward and get Tavares back under contract. — Shilton
Can Panthers bring back the big three, including Marchand?
Having covered the Panthers for multiple rounds in the playoffs, I had hours of conversations about their three key unrestricted free agents: Center Sam Bennett, defenseman Aaron Ekblad and winger/Dairy Queen enthusiast Brad Marchand.
There was a common perception about them before the Panthers hoisted the Cup for a second time, but those have shifted:
1. Bennett, who won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoffs MVP, was a lock to re-sign. While scores of teams might have doubled his base salary ($5 million), Bennett and the Panthers have been confident something would get done. Then, at the Panthers’ victory celebration at E11EVEN in Miami, he quoted “The Wolf of Wall Street” while informing fans he was not leaving while a message that read “8 more years” was displayed behind him.
2. Ekblad, who was drafted first overall by the Panthers in 2014, was iffy to re-sign. He would be coveted as a mobile right-shot defenseman with two Stanley Cups to his credit. The Panthers reportedly made an offer to Ekblad was reportedly rejected last summer, and Florida then explored the trade market for him.
But the winds have shifted here. Speculation in Sunrise was that the Panthers and Ekblad, 29, could swap a high cap number for term, which can be risky with a player that has Ekblad’s injury history. Florida really likes its current defensive depth — Ekblad with Gustav Forsling, and then Seth Jones on a second pairing, where the Panthers believe he’s perfectly cast. Ekblad now expects to stay, but as he cautioned recently: “Things seem to come down to the last minute here.”
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3. Marchand took less money in Boston on his last deal for a player of his accomplishments — he made only $8 million in base salary twice in 16 seasons with the Bruins. So the perception was that he would sign with whichever team offered the highest salary with the term he was seeking, rumored to be four years. The Maple Leafs were the focus here, in the ultimate “if you can’t beat’em, have him join’em” moment in NHL history. But suitors ranging from the Washington Capitals to the Utah Mammoth were rumored to be waiting on him.
However, the fit and success he found in Florida appears to have shifted things here, too. Marchand publicly asked GM Bill Zito to give him a contract — at a Dairy Queen, no less — and Zito has said multiple times he expects to be able to sign Bennett, Ekblad and Marchand at a cap hit that allows the Panthers “to bring in other good players.”
For what it’s worth, Marchand was caught on video at the famed Elbo Room in Fort Lauderdale telling a fan that he’s not leaving and then flashing four fingers. But it’s Marchand. He says a lot. — Wyshynski
Do the Blackhawks have a big surprise in store for Round 1?
Chicago is set to pick at No. 3. After Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa are all but guaranteed to go 1-2, the Blackhawks will be the first fascinating selection of the night.
Do they go center, or wing?
When the scouting combine in Buffalo was wrapping up, it sounded like Chicago was zeroed in on either Moncton Wildcats center Caleb Desnoyers or Brampton Steelheads winger Porter Martone.
Martone’s stock has risen even further since the start of June, and while it may have been the Blackhawks’ inclination to go center, could they pass on Martone at this point? He’s 6-3 and 207 pounds, brings a physical edge, creative playmaking, a great shot and terrific hands. Martone collected 37 goals and 98 points in 57 games last season as the Steelheads’ captain, and scouts rave about his overall ability and potential to excel in the NHL.
Chicago already has one exemplary young center in Connor Bedard. While it’s tempting to add another potential standout at the position, the draw of what Martone could bring might just be too much on which to pass. — Shilton
Oilers GM baffled by goalie decision
There’s no question that the Edmonton Oilers‘ goaltending was a detriment during their Stanley Cup Final loss to the Florida Panthers.
Stuart Skinner (.861 save percentage, 3.97 goals-against average) was pulled twice and eventually benched for Calvin Pickard (.878, 2.88) in their Game 5 loss, before returning to give up three goals on 23 shots on their Game 6 elimination. Both goalies were below-replacement level in goals saved above expected over their last five playoff games. Meanwhile, Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky chugged along at 3.1 goals saved above expected in his last five games, and did what he needed to do (.919, 2.45) in the Final.
This confuses Oilers GM Stan Bowman about his goaltending, because he argues that Edmonton had the stronger goaltending in their three previous series in the Western Conference. “Darcy Kuemper, Adin Hill and Jake Oettinger, our goalies were better than them in each of those series,” he said. “I think that’s the reason we went to the [Stanley Cup] Final. And then in the Final it flipped.”
The assumption has been that goaltending would be a priority for the Oilers this offseason, especially finding an elite-level netminder that would theoretically prevent embarrassments like having to decide which struggling goalie will start Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. But Bowman said he’s still mulling over any goalie changes for next season, with both Skinner ($2.6 million AAV) and Pickard ($1 million) signed through next season before becoming unrestricted free agents.
Bowman said changes for next season “may involve the goaltending or it could not,” and that there’s a lot of analysis that has to be done in the wake of their second loss to Florida in two seasons before making that decision.
It’s hard to fathom that the Oilers would run it back with the same battery next season, but the options to upgrade are limited. They’ve been linked to John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks, who has a 10-team no-trade list and two years left on his contract at a $6.4 million AAV. New Jersey Devils veteran Jake Allen is the best option in a thin UFA market that also includes Alexandar Georgiev (San Jose), Alex Lyon (Detroit) and Anton Forsberg (Ottawa).
Bowman said that’s part of the decision for the Oilers: Who, exactly, would be an upgrade over Skinner and Pickard in the playoffs?
“It’s not like you just go down to the corner and pick up an elite goalie,” he said. “They’re not just waiting for you to join your team. So how many are there anyways in that group?”
“If you look at the [elite] guys, some of them have had some tough playoffs. So there’s no guarantee in the goaltending world. It’s the most important [position], but it’s also in some instances not why teams win,” the GM said. “So if you have a strong enough team, then there’s been teams that win the Cup without elite goaltending and there’s been teams that won because of their goalie.” — Wyshynski
Is Nashville really open to anything?
Rumblings about the Nashville Predators continue to grow. The Predators are picking at No. 5, but are not in the typical position a team would be in with that selection.
Nashville wants to compete now. And they have a piece of capital to wield in trying to land an NHL player now from a team that might be closer to that re-tooling stage and eyeing a top prospect for their pool.
If there were to be a blockbuster happening in the first round, it feels like Nashville would be involved.
Specifically, the Preds could use a viable defenseman to shore up the blue line alongside Roman Josi. And we know from recent offseasons that GM Barry Trotz is willing and able to go all-in as necessary and get creative.
If Trotz believes in Nashville’s opportunity to rebound from a rough 2024-25 with a winning year ahead then he seems likely to consider a fair deal for an NHL-level skater. — Shilton
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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