Final 2025 NHL draft rankings: Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, then…?
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Rachel Doerrie
NHL draft week is officially here, and with that come the final draft rankings.
The top 64 are ranked here, along with details of their game, areas for development, their perception among NHL scouts and an NHL projection. The final set of rankings includes combine scores and a heavier weight of scouting opinions and intel against my projection model. While some players grade at higher or lower value than in previous rankings, their position considers how likely they are to become NHL players based on their developmental needs and perception in the industry.
After Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa, there is almost no consensus in this draft. For example, some teams have players ranked in the 20s that others do not have on their draft list at all. Part of this is related to the fact that teams are valuing different attributes — be it skill, grit, size, playoff performance, etc. — and place higher value on players who fit their organizational mantra. More than in previous years, some players might fall in the draft because another player is higher on a specific team’s list. This could lead to teams trading up to grab players they believe have fallen too far to ignore.
The most important thing to remember is that a player’s success or failure is not dictated by his draft slot, but who he becomes in the years that follow. It is true that earlier draft picks get many more chances than late ones regardless of talent, but that doesn’t mean some gems won’t be found later in the draft. In fact, given the desire for size, truculence and hard skill over high-end talent, it is fair to suggest we might see more success from draft selections outside the first round than in previous years.
Here are the top 64 prospects, along with some players who deserve honorable mention:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
The Erie Otters defender is projected to become a true No. 1 cornerstone for years to come. A dynamic presence at both ends of the ice, the 6-foot-2 blueliner skates with ease and elite mobility to shut down opponents in all situations, while creating offense with quality transition play.
Though an injury at the IIHF World Junior Championships — where he was set to play a key role as a 17-year-old — cut his season to just 26 games, Schaefer still logged over 25 minutes per contest, and consistently drove play in his team’s favor.
Executives and scouts view him as a future elite NHL defenseman and a foundational piece for a championship-caliber roster. Schaefer’s ability to control play from the blue line, play tough matchups, and run a power play — combined with the belief in his character and leadership — result in many believing that Schaefer has the tools to become a top-10 defender in the league, while wearing a letter as part of a team’s leadership group.
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
Granted exceptional status in the OHL in 2022, Misa delivered one of the most remarkable goal-scoring seasons in recent memory in 2024-25, netting 62 goals in just 65 games. He projects to be a top-line forward capable of consistently exceeding 90 points per season in the NHL.
Misa’s offensive instincts are elite. He processes the game at a high level and executes at top speed. Scouts believe he is NHL-ready and has the potential to become an elite top-line center. Away from the puck, Misa excels at finding soft areas in coverage and has a flair for delivering in clutch moments. His combination of high-end playmaking and goal-scoring ability makes him a constant dual threat in the offensive zone.
His two-way game has taken a noticeable step forward with improved backchecking, defensive awareness and commitment to a 200-foot game. Paired with his explosive speed and offensive firepower, Misa profiles as a foundational player.
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
Hagens is projected to be a top-line center, or one of the NHL’s best second-line centers. He lacks the dynamism of Misa, opting for a highly cerebral and efficient play style. He brings a good work rate with excellent speed and passing ability that should see him effectively drive play at the NHL level. Scouts and executives are impressed with the professional details of his game (puck support, winning battles, defensive puck play), and they believe it will ease the transition to the NHL while he finds his offensive gear.
Another season at Boston College to further develop a more a dynamic offensive gear to become a top-line NHL center — the one that had scouts impressed during his NTDP season (with 102 points) — could be the remedy. After playing on one of college hockey’s top lines with Gabe Perreault (New York Rangers) and Ryan Leonard (Washington Capitals), Hagens would now be relied upon to drive his own line, create offense through his own playmaking and play a significant matchup role.
Hagens has the potential to be the complete package in the NHL. His understanding of spacing and ability to anticipate stands out among his peers. He’s smaller and slighter than other prospects, which worries some teams, but there’s a mix of Clayton Keller and Jack Hughes in him in terms of transition play and creativity.
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
A big, cerebral forward, Martone is a dual-threat offensive player with ability to score on his own and facilitate. He projects to be a second-line scoring winger who should see top power-play minutes.
His competitive nature will make him an effective agitator as he learns to physically impose himself on opponents. He needs to hone the competitiveness and physicality to increase its effectiveness, but he is exactly the type of player teams covet because of the unique combination of offensive talent and competitive fire.
Martone’s ability to score and make plays will make him a difficult player to defend in the NHL. There are concerns about Martone’s speed and skating posture. His speed has improved this season, but Martone needs to add explosiveness to his skating to hit his ceiling.
His unique combination of scoring ability, size and hard skill make him a very attractive prospect. While his most confident projection is as a top-six forward, Martone has a legitimate chance to become a top-line winger if his skating improves.
5. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
Frondell is a versatile two-way forward that plays both center and right wing. His flexibility is attractive to teams, although many believe he is most likely to reach his potential as a winger in the NHL.
Frondell is coming off one of the most productive seasons by an under-18 player in Allsvenskan history, giving him a confident projection as a first-line NHL forward. He’s a cerebral player, who picks apart defenders in one-on-one situations and defensive coverage in offensive zone play. The details of Frondell’s game are translatable, including excellent forechecking ability, willingness to attack the middle of the ice and high-end anticipation on both sides of the puck.
He has shown play-driving capabilities against men in the Allsvenskan, which has translated to the NHL for other prospects in the past. He’s projected to produce between 75-85 points per season. His style of play translates well and has executives excited about his ability to step in the league in the next 18 months.
He impressed during the physical testing and interview portions of the scouting combine, leaving many teams impressed. His two-way ability combined with great anticipation and a high-end shot make him one of the more exciting prospects in the class.
6. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
Described as “a unicorn” because he’s a 6-5 center who skates with the speed and mobility that you would expect from a smaller player, McQueen has been a hot topic all season.
He profiles as a prototypical modern-day power forward who blends soft skill with physicality. Elite right-handed centers are rare in the NHL, and McQueen’s size and willingness to physically dictate play adds undeniable value. He has professional defensive habits that are translatable to the NHL, and unique offensive upside that is still developing given the loss of playing time due to injury during his draft season.
McQueen dominates the cycle game, creates offense on the rush and uses his physical gifts to dominate the cycle and protect pucks. His projection as an elite top-line center lacks confidence, due to lack of playing time from his back injury. Without the injury, we might be discussing McQueen near the top of this draft class because his package of skating, skill and physical gifts are rare, and the type of toolbox of which executives dream.
He is a textbook case of high-risk, high-reward player; however, his performance at the scouting combine went along to proving his back injury had healed completely. Playing against tougher competition, where McQueen will be forced to develop his ability to protect himself, the puck control and ability to create offense against bigger bodies will be important. If developed without setback, he could become a two-way force in the NHL for years to come.
7. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
Desnoyers might go a lot higher than where I have him, because he could be one of the best two-way players in the draft. Described as a “coach’s dream” because of his ability to take an offensive or checking assignment and execute consistently. He makes smart, simple plays, provides a physical presence on the forecheck and generally agitates and makes life difficult on defenders.
He projects to be a quality second-line center with a decent chance of becoming a first-line player. He’s cerebral, with quick hands and playmaking ability. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistently effective and makes intelligent plays with the puck.
Executives love hearing the word “reliable” from scouts, and that word is perfect to describe Desnoyers. He’s at his best when he’s in pressure-packed games because he finds a way to make the necessary plays to win. Many scouts believe he will be a leader in the NHL, with solid play on both sides of the puck, in all situations.
As one scouting director described “he’s the type of player you win with.” Some have quietly compared him to Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews, who are lofty comparisons, to say the very least.
8. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
Smith is a big, physical defenseman with untapped offensive ability and is the consensus second-best defender in the draft class behind Schaefer.
He possesses all the qualities of a top-four matchup guy. He defends the rush well, closes gaps and steers the play in transition, making him one of the best neutral-zone, transition defenders in the class. Given the importance of transition defense in a matchup role, Smith has a real chance to the guy coaches rely upon to play heavy minutes against the best players.
His blend of skating, size and poise with an offensive game that progressed positively as the season wore on makes me a believer that there is more to give, and playing at Penn State next season should help it along.
Smith stands 6-3, and executives love the simplicity of his game, reading pressure, disrupting plays and making effective passes to exit the zone. He lacks explosive skating, and the consistent creativity required to be a quality offensive contributor at the NHL level, but his reads are there to be a plus transition player and join the rush as a support player.
Smith’s development from here will be about using his excellent mobility to prevent rush offense and becoming a more consistent offensive threat with better puck management. If Smith can drive play on both sides of the puck in transition and become a power-play threat, there’s a real chance he becomes a No. 2 defender at the NHL level.
9. Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
Deceptive and incredibly smooth, O’Brien projects to be a point-producing, top-six center with a chance to become a top-line center. The right-handed pivot is one of the best playmakers in the draft, creating high-danger chances with regularity; for my money, he is the best pure creator in the draft.
He consistently manipulates defenders, distributes the puck on the forehand and backhand and uses fakes that send turn defenders and goalies into pretzels. The development will come from simplifying offensive plays to eliminate turnovers caused by holding the puck for too long.
O’Brien’s shot is going to be a necessary development area if his passing is to be an elite threat in the NHL. There is risk here, because he’s slighter than other players available at the center position, but he has room to fill out over the next few years. O’Brien’s elite playmaking skills will be that much more valuable if he can add a speed gear and increase his shooting threat.
He’s two or three years away from playing an impactful role in the NHL, and patience could be the key to O’Brien reaching his top-line ceiling. If he does, he’s going to be an elite power-play quarterback and offensive driver.
10. Victor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
Eklund projects as a top-six forward with a good chance of becoming a top-line contributor. There’s a distinct possibility he falls out of the top 10 this week, which would mean extreme value for anyone who selects him. Despite concerns about his size — he’s 5-11, 161 pounds — Eklund’s style of play is very translatable to the NHL. He plays a lot bigger than his measurements suggest, and there is room to add strength. Should he grow, which has happened to other prospects in the past, Eklund’s projection becomes more confident as a 70-point producer with a high-end motor and excellent forechecking capability.
Eklund is excellent in transition and attacks defenders with speed and fearlessness, darting to the inside, and positioning his body to win or protect pucks. His smaller size has forced him to learn how to protect the puck with excellent body positioning. If he develops a bigger, stronger frame, those skills will make him even more difficult to defend in the offensive zone.
His off-puck play is mature, and will quickly earn the trust of NHL coaches. Eklund has the potential to be a difference-maker in a second-line role, and his blend of hard-nosed play with soft skill should translate more seamlessly than other players.
11. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
Bear is the type of player that a team looking for high-end instincts and playmaking covet. Before a season-ending injury in March, Bear was one of the CHL’s most dangerous offensive players and a reliable defensive forward. He’s versatile, in that he plays center and the wing, and projects as a 65- to 75-point, second-line player, most likely on the wing.
He’s a quality playmaker using different passes to create advantages in dangerous areas. His ability to manipulate defenders and create space for teammates while pulling coverage towards him should translate well in the NHL. He’s got good hands in tight spaces, which make him a threat around the net, and is one of the best offensive facilitators in the draft class.
On top of his offensive gifts, Bear’s defensive play makes him a quality two-way player. His stick positioning allows him to disrupt passes, and he’s a tenacious forechecker who tracks well on the backcheck and finishes hits. His skating posture needs to be more upright to allow him to develop a more explosive stride to take advantage of his offensive skills in transition, but the instincts and execution of plays already exist.
Bear is a good mix of soft and hard skill with projectable traits on both sides of the puck, and he is the type of player who should thrive in a matchup role while contributing offensively.
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
A 6-6, right-handed defenseman with decent mobility who plays in all situations has scouts very excited, and he could be the second defenseman drafted on Friday. He’s very difficult to get around, routinely thwarting attackers in their tracks and killing plays. He projects as a top-four, shutdown defenseman because of his excellent stick work, mobility and transition defense. Mrtka uses his mobility to escape pressure, activate in the rush and make quality passes to the middle of the ice.
Mrtka should develop into a strong transition defender, a reliable penalty killer and efficient puck mover. He shoots the puck hard and could become more of a scoring threat if he can pick his spots to get pucks through. While everything flowed through him in Seattle, there are well-placed concerns about his lack of offense.
His size and physicality give him the tools to develop into a minute-munching, shutdown defender if his mobility continues to progress. His late birthday gives him lots of development runway to refine his skating, offensive playmaking, and physicality in all areas of the ice.
13. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
A Swiss Army knife type of player who will be most effective on the wing because of his strong wall play, Martin projects as a middle-six forward capable of scoring 20 goals routinely, with upside as a second-line forward.
He’s a wrecking ball that will bring value in all three zones, on and off the puck. Martin has scouts raving about him after an excellent performance at the IIHF under-18 championship, with many opining that he could go very early in the first round. He’s a workhorse without an off switch, who brings a blend of physicality and hard skill. He’s a nightmare to contain with his brute strength, and forces defenders into precarious positions with good speed and willingness to make “winning” plays.
Martin finds ways to get involved physically if he doesn’t have his “A” game offensively, and executives love that. If Martin’s scoring doesn’t translate, he’ll be a valuable third-line pest.
Several teams mentioned how impressive Martin was during interviews at the combine. Combine an attractive personality with the hard-nosed style, and it forms a rare combination that is valuable to many scouts who believe he’s the type of player teams need to win in the playoffs. Surely, his mention of Conn Smythe winner Sam Bennett as a role model grabbed attention. He will likely be long gone by the early teens — but that does not devalue the players who will be selected after him.
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
Carbonneau possesses an offensive toolbox that teams covet, including powerful skating and eye-popping creativity. He projects as a second-line scoring forward with significant variance and is likely to end up as a middle-six player who thrives against secondary matchups. Carbonneau can drive offense with his playmaking and shooting ability and plays a well-rounded offensive game that includes playing through contact, excellent puckhandling skills and above-average skating.
As is the case with any player who possess incredible upside, there is inherent risk. He has a physically mature body (6-1, 191 pounds), and will need to adjust to the speed of the professional game. He thrives when given time and space, and his growth will come from learning to simplify his offensive play and make better decisions with the puck. There are tools to become a very effective power forward in the NHL who can score 25 goals if he adds a cerebral component to his game.
15. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
The 6-4 left winger has translatable scoring ability, and excellent speed for his size. With room to fill out his frame, Lakovic is an attractive prospect.
He attacks with linear crossovers using his big frame to protect the puck, and he makes plays using good deception. He has the potential to be a dual-threat winger at the NHL level if his passing translates the way many believe his shooting will. Lakovic projects to be a middle-six winger with fair confidence because of his scoring ability, speed and size, but there is a chance he becomes a second-line scoring threat.
Lakovic’s development will come on the physical side. While he is supremely skilled, he needs to lean on defenders and force his way to middle ice to take advantage of his quick hands and shot. If he does, he becomes a significantly more dangerous player, as he’ll be a threat in transition and off the cycle. That is certainly a developable skill that translates to any level, and combined with quality offensive instincts and skill, could see Lakovic become a dual-threat, 65-point winger.
16. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
The 6-2 defender projects to become a second-pair blueliner that excels in transition. He is one of the best neutral-zone defenders and puck movers in the draft, who steadily improved as a true freshman in the NCAA. His puck retrievals, breakout passes and offensive-zone passes consistently put his team in more advantageous attacking positions. Being a right-handed defender with excellent mobility and an easily translatable game makes Hensler a very attractive prospect in this class.
The are concerns among NHL scouts related to Hensler’s offensive abilities and how he might fare in the NHL. However, Hensler showed flashes in the back half of the NCAA season, drawing defenders in and making slick plays for high-danger scoring opportunities. He’s unlikely to become a 60-point defender, but 35-45 points as a steady transition defender who plays a shutdown role seems to be the appropriate projection.
His NHL-ready frame is a plus, and will only improve throughout his collegiate career, which is likely to be another two seasons.
17. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
Cootes is likely to be the first center taken in the back half of the first round and will be a target for teams looking for a two-way, high-motor center. He lacks explosive offense, but with some development of his shooting mechanics, he could become a 60-point, two-way center. Scouts love how consistently he moves his feet throughout his shifts, his drive to play through the middle of the ice and his ability to create advantages for himself with his skating and compete level.
His ability to create space for his teammates and move the puck to advantageous areas of the ice is highly translatable. He’s proactive with his contact, moves the puck to the middle of the ice and is reliable on both sides of the puck, in every area of the ice.
A strong skater and leader, his floor is likely a third-line checking center, but the potential for him to become a two-way, second-line center should be attractive to teams who are willing to bet on offensive development.
18. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
There’s a lot to love about Reid’s game — and a lot of varying opinions. Some scouts see him as a top-15 pick, others see him as a mid-20s pick, and it all hinges on their belief in his offensive game. Reid is a play driver from the back end with excellent puck-moving skills and excellent skating. He flashes high-end offensive ability in the form of setups and moving to find and create passing lanes to high-danger areas; however, his shot will need to become more of a threat to avoid his distribution being neutralized in the NHL.
In transition, he’s one of the best on both sides of the puck. His smooth puck retrievals — where he constantly shoulder checks and scans to avoid pressure — led to efficient breakouts. When under duress, he uses elite edgework to escape and shake pressure, following with a quick outlet pass to beat the forecheck.
The consensus belief is that he’s a middle-pairing, transition defender who can turn into a bona fide No. 3 if he develops his offense and grows an inch or two; currently he’s listed at 5-11.
19. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
There’s a very real chance that Aitcheson is drafted near the top 10 given the type of game he plays and the thirst among NHL teams for bite on the back end.
His projection as a No. 4/5 defender sees him below other players with higher upside. Aitcheson plays with all kinds of truculence and aggression, while possessing an aura of confidence on and off the puck. He’s got all the makings of being a complete menace who plays tough minutes as a No. 4 defender.
Whether it is a preseason game or the playoffs, Aitcheson plays the same rough style, and is unafraid of lowering the boom on opponents. He needs to pick his spots better to avoid unnecessary penalties, but he’s the type of player that requires opponents to be aware when he’s on the ice. Scouts see him as hard-nosed, two-way defender with significant bite who can be a momentum-shifter with his physical presence.
He needs development time, as his skating and playmaking are very raw, but the competitive attributes and his development curve this season are very promising. Aitcheson’s offensive involvement developed as the season progressed, rotating with his teammates, diving down towards the high-danger area and becoming more dangerous with open ice.
He’s likely two or three years away from being ready to step in. But when he does, he’s exactly the type of defender every coach and GM want on their team.
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
The two-way center brings an excellent mix of hockey sense, playmaking and creativity to be a middle-six contributor capable of consistently producing 60 points. He lacks elite skating, but his combine results raised eyebrows — tying Frondell for tops in VO2 max. While that isn’t indictive of NHL success, it shows a particular dedication to conditioning, and those in NHL circles pay attention to those results.
Reschny is smaller — 5-10, 183 pounds — and relies on his cerebral approach and excellent passing abilities to create advantage all over the ice. He processes the game better than many in the draft class, allowing him to manage pressure and put himself in better puck-protection positions.
Defensively, Reschny’s instincts result in positionally sound play, regularly playing above the puck, disrupting passes, and communicating assignment switches. He’s got the potential to be a great two-way complementary center that creates offense without separating speed. His reads will almost surely see him play a penalty-killing role and someone who is relied upon when his team is holding a lead.
21. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
Kindel is a scoring machine. Following a 60-point rookie campaign in the WHL in 2023-24, he vaulted into elite status this season, finishing seventh in overall scoring, and was excellent at even strength.
Though undersized at 5-10, 176 pounds, Kindel blends pace, vision and quality instincts, and he projects to be a middle-six winger with two-way ability. Kindel’s motor is relentless, which makes up for his lack of speed, and enables him to weave through traffic and execute give-and-go’s with ease. A dual-threat attacker, he pairs an accurate shot with dangerous passing ability. His elite hockey sense allows him to consistently outsmart opponents and set teammates up with creative plays in dangerous areas with time and space, while playing positionally sound hockey off the puck.
Defensively and on the forecheck, Kindel leverages his intelligence, anticipation and effort to win battles despite size disadvantages. He’ll need to refine and improve his skating posture and puck control, while adding another speed gear to succeed in the NHL.
While the potential exists for Kindel to a top-six NHL player, he is more likely to find himself in the middle-six as a complementary piece.
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
Potter is a dynamic skater who is the fastest straight-line skater in the draft class, and his explosive mobility ranks among the draft’s best. Making an uncommon jump from the NTDP’s under-17 team straight to NCAA play, Potter displayed elite acceleration and agility, effortlessly shifting from stride to crossover and cutting sharply through defenders. Initially reliant on raw skill, Potter often avoided physical battles and forced “hope plays,” limiting his effectiveness in the first half of the NCAA season.
Potter’s evolution in the second half of the season elevated his game dramatically, and it was impossible not to notice. He embraced defensive responsibilities, improved his physical play despite his 5-10 frame, won puck battles and filled lanes on the backcheck. Potter’s positional play improved, and his off-puck play improved as a result.
The added defensive dimension complements his offensive talents, elevating his floor to a bottom-six checker, while his upside is very high as a top-six forward because of his steep development curve. Development of his transition play and learning to use his explosive skating and accurate shot while changing gears will make him a more dangerous offensive threat.
23. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
Spence projects with confidence as a high-energy, two-way winger suited perfectly for a Stanley Cup contender’s third line. He possess a relentless motor, physical tenacity, and professional defensive habits. There are well-placed concerns that his game lacks a true dynamic offensive element, but the current form of his game easily translates to NHL, with a higher floor than other players in this area of the class.
At his best, Spence is a disruptive force, ferocious on the forecheck, relentless on the wall and defensively reliable. He thrives alongside skilled teammates, creating space through with his effort, and the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities in dangerous areas of the ice. Scouts like Spence’s game-changing impact, particularity his forechecking, success in puck battles and ability to draw penalties.
His offensive growth plateaued this season and has tempered expectations about his ceiling. His projection as a third-line winger with a bottom-six floor is related to that scoring plateau. If Spence can assert physical dominance, playmaking consistency and see an uptick in scoring, there is a chance he becomes a secondary contributor in the middle six. Regardless, Spence’s blend of competitiveness, professional details and defensive reliability makes him a solid bet to become a key commentary piece on a contender who likely excels as the game gets more physical.
24. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
Ravensbergen is the clear-cut top goaltender prospect in this draft. He projects a composed, confident demeanor, with a confident projection as a starting NHL goaltender who can handle a significant workload.
At 6-foot-5, he leverages size, elite anticipation and crisp lateral agility, consistently positioning himself perfectly to deny shooters without unnecessary flash. He tracks the puck a level above his peers, which allows him to confidently challenge shooters and cut angles effectively. He is particularly vulnerable through the five-hole, which isn’t atypical for large goalies who hover sticks above the ice. As he develops and refines his technique, this weakness should be corrected long before he reaches the NHL.
A reliable backstop for Prince George, Ravensbergen’s .901 save percentage stands out even more when considering the high-danger chances he regularly faced. His rebound control is well above average, and he has an above-average glove hand. He regularly has his blocker angled well, enabling him to direct shots safely away from danger.
It is likely that Ravensbergen becomes a platoon starter until his mid-20s, when he is capable of become a full-time NHL starter who plays 60-65 games per season.
25. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
Fiddler is one of the draft’s most intriguing defenders with his blend of size (6-4), mobility and untapped upside.
With NHL family history (Vernon Fiddler is his father), he performed well on the international stage, leaving scouts and executives believing that his defensive-zone dominance and transition skill will make the NHL transition easier. Fiddler’s defensive toolkit stands out. His mobility lends itself to tight gap control, balanced pivots and high-quality neutral-zone defense. Physically imposing, he consistently disrupts opposing attacks, maintains strong body positioning, and proactively eliminates threats away from the puck while staying positionally sound.
Defense is his clear calling card, but Fiddler flashes creativity on offense. He manipulates defenders with fakes, executes difficult breakout passes under pressure, and flashes high-end puck skills on occasion.
To reach his ceiling of a second-pairing defenseman, Fiddler will need to refine his reads, timing, and decision-making to limit miscues with the puck. He’ll likely require patience over the next few years, but with continued development in gap control, awareness and physical engagement, he profiles confidently as a reliable second-pair shutdown defender capable of driving play in transition.
26. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
Nesbitt is an intelligent, two-way center whose game is rooted in competitiveness, defensive reliability, and off-puck hockey IQ. He excels defensively by using his 6-4 frame to break up plays with physical engagement and smart stick positioning to pick off pucks. His hockey sense consistently places him in strong positions in all three zones, allowing him to create turnovers and execute quick passes to create dangerous chances off those turnovers.
His offensive upside hinges on his skating, which is a concern. His stiff skating stride and lack of demonstrated flexibility at the combine might limit how much he can improve. Despite flashes of skill, he struggles to maneuver past defenders, and his inconsistent puck handling under pressure often disrupts his playmaking.
Nesbitt showed improvement throughout the season, leveraging his size offensively and initiating more contact more consistently. If these improvements continue, and he’s able to improve his skating stride, he projects confidently as a dependable middle-six center who can anchor a defensive line and support skilled players higher up the lineup.
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
One of the most discussed and debated defenders in the draft, Boumedienne projects as a second-pair, two-way defender.
Already known as a brilliant breakout passer with a heavy slap shot and strong stick play, Boumedienne’s defensive game evolved noticeably at Boston University. Buoyed by steadily improving his skating weaknesses, particularly his agility and edge work, he looked the part of a modern shutdown defenseman, specifically in transition. He developed greater stability, enabling more effective gap control and quicker pivots. Proactive reads, strong positioning, physicality and effective disruption of passing lanes allowed his defensive game to blossom.
While his offensive game remains primarily rush-based rather than in the offensive zone, Boumedienne’s willingness to experiment with fakes and deception improved his transition impact significantly. The volatility of his projection remains high, but Boumedienne’s substantial in-season growth, defensive reliability and refined skating offer realistic upside as an effective second-pair, two-way defender at the NHL level who can produce secondary offense.
28. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
One of the most skilled and creative forwards in the draft, and some scouts have him ranked in the late teens because of their belief in his upside.
Lee is a dynamic offensive player who consistently cuts through defensive coverage with elite puckhandling and deceptive passes. His one-timer is one of the best in the draft class. With a full complement of high-end tools, Lee has a rare ability to create offense in tight quarters with limited space, and he stood out amongst his USHL peers. He manipulates defenders and delivers elite passes under pressure. He consistently makes translatable plays like one-touch breakouts, fake receptions, and quick releases in scoring areas. As the season progressed, he showed a willingness to forecheck, battle and apply pressure defensively.
The glaring question is his skating. His stride is stiff and lacks explosiveness. Lee will need major strides in mobility to maximize his offensive toolkit at the NHL level. That being said, if he adds a step or two to pair with his skill, Lee has the skill to become a creative, middle-six playmaker with top-six upside.
29. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Murtagh emerged as a versatile, energetic winger and cemented himself as the NTDP’s most compelling prospect in a down year.
He plays a relentless style and possesses an explosive stride, thriving in puck battles, consistently leveraging his straight-line speed and physicality to power through opponents and create scoring chances. He owns a strong shot package, including an explosive one-timer, and Murtagh is equally dangerous off the rush. Murtagh’s development as a playmaker elevated his stock in the eyes of scouts. He regularly demonstrated above-average awareness, impressive passing skill to get the puck to the most dangerous areas of the ice. His ability to complement scoring with high-level distribution should continue to develop at the NCAA level at Boston University.
To unlock a clear NHL middle-six ceiling, Murtagh must diversify his transition approach, use teammates more consistently and rely less exclusively on raw speed and power. Even without dynamic creativity, his tenacious style, goal-scoring instincts and improved playmaking project safely to a third-line NHL power forward role.
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
Zonnon is a relentless and detail-oriented two-way forward who has carved out a reputation as one of the CHL’s hardest-working players. With an 83-point breakout campaign in his first full-time season at center, Zonnon combined a high-end motor, raw but effective playmaking and relentless puck pursuit that allowed him to be a play driver in all three zones. He excels on the forecheck, pressuring defenders into rushed decisions, winning battles and moving pucks to teammates in scoring areas.
Offensively, he makes good reads under pressure, threading pucks through tight lanes and consistently puts his team in advantageous positions. His ability to support defensively, facilitate transitions and physically impose himself makes him ideal the type of forward teams want in the playoffs.
His skating remains a limiting factor, and he’ll need to improve his agility and posture to reach his offensive ceiling. If Zonnon can refine his stride and continue to develop his playmaking, he projects as a middle-six driver who blends tenacity and has the makings of a valuable third-liner whom playoff teams covet.
31. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
A steady riser as the season progressed, Vansaghi is a tenacious power winger whose physical dominance and competitive fire make him one of the most NHL-ready players in the draft. Many nights, he looked like a man among boys with excellent forechecking, delivering punishing checks to defenders who were retrieving pucks, and bulldozing through contact to establish inside position.
Offensively, Vansaghi showed flashes of legitimate upside, with good puckhandling, a heavy release that caught goaltenders by surprise, and the ability to beat defenders one-on-one. His net-front play and ability to win body position in tight areas shows that he might be an effective net-front player at the NHL level if he can deflect pucks and knock rebounds home.
His skating lacks explosiveness and agility, and will need significant revamp which might be tough given his physical maturity. If he can make improvements to his first few steps, Vansaghi could evolve into a middle-six force who complements skill with relentless physical play.
32. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Moore remains one of the more intriguing upside bets despite a plateau in development over two seasons with the NTDP.
The feeling among scouts is that Moore’s plateau is related to the structure the NTDP plays with, in that it stifles creativity, and I would agree with that assessment. Moore is a skilled forward with strong skating, good puck skill and offensive instincts. He has moments of absolute brilliance, manipulating defenders with crossovers, threading look-off passes and showcasing high-end puck protection.
At his best, Moore combines finesse with power, winning battles along the wall, creating screens and asserting body position to generate offense. It is a quality blend of hard and soft skill. He excels in possession and can command shifts with deceptive movement and slick hands in tight space. The lack of consistency in his play leads to questions about what type of player Moore can be at the NHL level.
A lack of physical strength and assertiveness without the puck lessens his impact more often than not, leading to quiet nights and “invisibility” monikers. If Moore can raise his engagement level and improve strength, there is real second-line potential at the next level. Otherwise, he projects as a versatile third-line forward who can contribute on a second power-play unit and provide complementary offense.
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamloops (WHL)
Behm is a dynamic winger with the skill to develop into a middle-six NHL scorer and an outside shot at becoming a second-line scorer. He combines creative playmaking, deceptive shooting, and above-average puck handling to generate offense. He beats defenders by manipulating them and using his reach to pull pucks through traffic. His soft hands allow him to catch pucks effortlessly and execute quick slot passes and shots.
He has an NHL-ready build, but he’ll need to improve pace and engage physically to reach his potential. If he can develop and refine those areas, he projects as a dual-threat offensive forward in a scoring role; without it, he settles into a bottom-six forward. As a player available late in the first round or in the second, he’s a worthwhile swing on upside.
34. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
The goal scorer is likely to go a lot lower than I have him, but his scoring ability is among the best in the draft class. He possesses elite finishing skill, high-end speed and above-average puck handling.
He scores in a variety of ways: off the rush, through traffic, and on one-timers. He’s difficult to read because he’s deceptive in his movements to find or create space. Despite his 5-7 frame, Schmidt adds a rare physical edge and flashes playmaking quality.
For obvious reasons, scouts and executives question whether or not he can be effective at the NHL level — the numbers suggest he has a legitimate shot if he grows to 5-9. He’s a boom-or-bust pick; if he rounds out his playmaking and utilizes his full offensive toolkit on a consistent basis, Schmidt could become a dynamic second-line scorer and one of the draft’s biggest steals.
35. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
Brzustewicz is the next prospect from the factory that is the London Knights. The blueliner projects as a steady, mobile transition defender with the potential to grow into a No. 4 or 5 NHL blueliner.
A right-handed shot with a strong defensive foundation, he maintains good gap control, moves the puck very well and supports plays while remaining positionally sound. In an elevated role, his offensive creativity developed dramatically. He jumped into the rush, evaded forecheckers and created scoring chances with quality passes to the slot.
If he continues to develop his confidence and play-driving ability, Brzustewicz could evolve into a reliable second-pairing defender. Without that growth, he still holds value as a depth puck mover with a good defensive foundation.
36. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Not unlike his teammates, McKinney likely had his offense stifled with the program, and there were signs that he has more to give. He projects as a competitive third-line center with above-average two-way play. The NTDP’s leading scorer — and one of the USHL’s most efficient producers — McKinney’s standout attributes include relentless puck pursuit, smart positioning and strong penalty-killing instincts.
Offensively, he thrives off the cycle, supports play with timely passes and quick decisions and is an above-average net-front presence. While his puck handling and shooting limit top six upside, some scouts believe there is more upside as a middle-six player. At a minimum, his motor, defensive value, and play-driving habits give him a clear path to a bottom-six NHL role.
37. Milton Gästrin, F, MoDo (J20 Nationell)
Gästrin is one of the most well-rounded and translatable two-way centers in the draft, projecting as a reliable third-line NHLer.
He combines high-end defensive instincts, strong off-puck support and a relentless motor to have many scouts believing he’ll be a reliable checking center. His playmaking continues to develop and might give him more offense than currently projected, but he’d likely top out between 30 and 40 points.
Gästrin is a reliable play driver, and coaches will be comfortable playing him in all three zones. While he lacks dynamic offensive upside, his intelligence, versatility, and steady skating development make him a low-risk bet to become an effective bottom-six center.
38. Václav Nestrašil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
Nestrašil is a high-upside power forward who projects as a top-six NHL winger if his development continues on its current path.
He is a unique blend of above average puck skill and playmaking with size, motor and punishing physical play. He excels with give-and-go’s, attacking off the wall, and creating space in traffic. He consistently moves the puck through carries or passes to the middle of the ice, creating more threatening opportunities.
He is raw and somewhat erratic with his reads and timing; his continued improvement and physical toolkit give him legitimate upside. If he becomes a more consistent threat, he’s a second-line force; if not, his defensive value and intensity still project a role as a physical, bottom-six winger.
39. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Amico is a 6-5 right-handed defenseman with the mobility, physicality and defensive instincts to grow into a No. 4/5 NHL blueliner. Injuries are a concern, but when healthy, he kills rushes with aggressive gap control, clears the crease with authority — a trait NHL scouts love — and starts breakouts with a good first pass.
Offensively, he shows flashes of playmaking, but limited reps and inconsistencies (partly due to a knee injury) leave questions about how high the ceiling is. If he stays healthy and continues to develop his transition game at Boston University, Amico has the tools to become a physical, play-driving defender with No. 4 upside.
40. Jacob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulua (J20 Nationell)
Ihs-Wozniak is a goal-scoring machine with one of the best finishing touches in the class. He possesses an arsenal of shot types that are NHL-caliber, has great off-puck instincts and a developing playmaking side. That combination of offensive skills gives him legitimate middle-six scoring upside. He times his movements for rebounds and slot chances very well, making him difficult to tie up. He’s not a play driver, but his frame, scoring touch and offensive instincts make him a good bet to be a complementary player.
To reach his ceiling, Ihs-Wozniak will need to improve his speed, which will improve his play in transition and his play along the wall. His potential as a power-play threat and goal scorer boost his NHL floor to a third-line player.
41. Eric Nilson, F, Djurgardens IF (J20 Nationell)
Nilson projects as a defensively reliable, bottom-six checking center with penalty-killing value. A fluid skater with a high motor and strong two-way instincts, he consistently supports play in all three zones, eliminates space on the backcheck, and was one of the top defensive forwards at Sweden’s J20 level.
Offensively, he can drive transition play and showed flashes of playmaking and a shot that could develop into a threat. Scouts question his willingness to drive the middle of the ice, given he’ll need to do that to be a two-way player at the NHL level. He’ll need to develop his playmaking and fill out physically to reach his potential. If he can develop those traits and combine them with his sound defensive play, he’ll likely carve out a bottom-six role in the NHL.
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
Kevan is a skilled and speedy winger who projects as a potential middle-six scoring threat if he rounds out his game. A dynamic skater with elite transition ability and flashy puck skill, Kevan creates off the rush with give-and-go’s and creative passes. He uses his speed defensively to pressure puck carriers on the backcheck.
Kevan needs to develop his offensive-zone play to be a more well-rounded offensive threat. If he adds strength and an element of physicality, Kevan could evolve into a two-way, play-driving winger. He’s an upside bet with his skill set, but likely ends up an AHL scorer if he can’t polish his offensive-zone play.
43. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Tolpar Ufa (MHL)
Zharovsky has some of the best hands in the draft class, without a doubt. He’s an elite puck handler with high-end creativity and offensive instincts that make him one of the most skilled European forwards in the draft.
After a slow start, he exploded for 46 points in 29 MHL games and held his own in KHL playoff action. Zharovsky manipulates defenders to create for both himself and teammates, showing dual-threat potential as a scorer and playmaker. His skating and defensive play need development, but his raw skill ceiling is undeniable.
He is a boom-or-bust winger, but his performance at the KHL level is an indicator that he’s likely to be successful in the NHL. With proper development, he could become a middle-six scorer and power-play threat in the NHL.
44. Max Pšenička, D, Portland (WHL)
One of the biggest risers in the back half of the season, Pšenička projects as a two-way, shutdown defenseman with the tools to become a reliable No. 4/5 at the NHL level. He brings good speed, physicality and smart defensive reads, consistently forcing dump-ins and battling for position. Offensively, he shows flashes of creativity on breakouts and rush activation, and development in puck control and passing precision will only boost his offensive projection.
His aggressive play and competitiveness make him a playoff-type defender. At 6-4 and 176 pounds, there is more than enough room to fill out his frame, which is likely to make him a strong net-front presence in the NHL. If he continues to develop his offensive game and adds strength, Pšenička has the upside to become a reliable second-pair defender with some grit.
45. Kurban Limatov, D, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)
Limatov is a high-upside, boom-or-bust defenseman with second-pair NHL potential. He possesses elite mobility and physical tools, and at 6-3, his explosive skating allows him to evade forecheckers and drive play in transition.
As the season progressed, his defensive reads improved and allowed him to play with more physicality and aggressiveness. Offensively, Limatov is raw and somewhat chaotic, but there are signs of creativity. If he continues to improve his decision-making, he could become a dynamic two-way defender. If not, he might remain a high-minute KHL player, but the NHL upside makes him an intriguing player in the second round.
46. William Horcoff, F, University of Michigan (NCAA)
The son of former NHLer Shawn Horcoff, William projects as a defensively reliable third-line center with size, strength and strong off-puck instincts. At nearly 6-5, he’s a disruptive force in his own zone, using his range and physicality to pressure puck attackers and cause turnovers.
Offensively, he facilitates with smart passes and uses his size to play with contact and protect the puck. He’ll need to develop his skating from a speed and mobility perspective to grow offensively. If he adds a step with some explosiveness and fills out his frame, Horcoff could become a physically imposing, two-way pivot in a bottom-six NHL role who plays against secondary matchups.
47. Daniil Prokhorov, F, MHK Dynamo St. Petersburg (MHL)
The best way to describe the 6-5 Prokhorov is a freight train on skates.
A physically dominant winger with middle-six power forward upside, he is one of the most physically imposing players in the draft. He delivers punishing hits, protects the puck well and drives the net with force. His heavy shot and straight-line speed contributed to a 20-goal MHL season, with flashes of puck skill.
He needs to develop his hockey sense, and he seems to get tunnel vision, which limits his playmaking and overall decision-making. If he improves his reads and off-puck awareness, Prokhorov could become a rare, punishing middle-six winger. Without growth, he still has a direct path to a depth NHL role through sheer physicality and size.
48. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
Ivankovic projects as a poised, technically sound platoon starter with the upside to become a No. 1 NHL goalie. Despite standing under 6 feet, he possesses elite skating, excellent positioning and controlled, patient movements that allow him to track and handle chaos with ease.
A standout for Hockey Canada and under-18 gold medalist, he plays bigger than his size, reading screens and staying composed under pressure. Height remains the key concern among teams, but his father is 6-5, so there is hope that Ivankovic grows another couple of inches. If he does, his mental makeup and technical foundation make him a good bet to be one the best goaltenders in the class.
49. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
A high-speed center with a great motor who projects as a middle-six, two-way forward, Romano has play-driving value in transition. He thrives off the rush, using speed and edge work to carry pucks through zones and create chances while keeping his feet moving.
Defensively, he’s a relentless backchecker with good positioning and strong stickwork. He lacks dynamic offensive creativity, but flashes of playmaking and shooting in stride have me believing there is more to give offensively. If he develops his creativity and learns to use the space he creates with his speed, Romano could evolve into a reliable middle-six center with speed and two-way ability.
50. Mason West, F, Edina High (USHS-MN)
Without a doubt, the best overall athlete in the draft class. A high school quarterback with legitimate college football potential and a hockey player who could go in the top 50 of the NHL draft does not come around too often.
The 6-6 forward possesses rare mobility, physical tools and intriguing upside. A natural shooter and smooth skater, his production on the Minnesota High School circuit at Edina High was impressive. When he stepped into the USHL, his development hit warp speed.
For obvious reasons, West is very raw as a prospect. He shows flashes of skill, an immovable net-front presence and growing physical engagement. Given his rawness, he will need to develop his puck control, positioning and decision-making. However, he will be able to rely on his QB scanning skills to help develop his decision-making in hockey. With continued development, there is a real chance he becomes a middle-six NHL power forward. The pure raw ability of this elite athlete has executives and scouts very excited.
51. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
Another of the really tall and mobile defensemen in this draft, Rombach has scouts believing in his shutdown ability.
The 6-6½ defender projects as a second-pair shutdown defenseman with elite defensive instincts and good puck retrievals. What separates him from similar defenders is that he handles pressure well. He shoulder checks on retrievals, scans coming up ice, absorbs contact and escapes pressure with smart passes.
He won’t be an offensive contributor, but he could develop into a plus transition player offensively. To reach his ceiling, Rombach needs to improve his skating posture, which will allow him to be more physical. With continued development at the University of Minnesota, he could become a quality shutdown defender in a top-four NHL role.
52. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping HC (J20 Nationell)
Genborg projects as a bottom-six checking winger with a strong chance to play NHL games thanks to his size, physicality and professional details. At 6-2, he’s a relentless forechecker with a great motor, plays a strong cycle game and is excellent defensively. Genborg impressed by earning over 20 SHL games this season and leading Sweden’s J20 league in goal pace, which buoys his NHL projection confidence.
His scoring should translate because it comes via net-front positioning and a good catch-and-release shot. While his offensive ceiling is limited by instincts and average playmaking, his blend of strength, effort and two-way value gives him a clear NHL path as a physical depth forward.
53. Semyon Frolov, G, MHK Spartak Moskva (MHL)
A steady riser in the rankings, Frolov projects as a 1B platoon goaltender with the potential to push for a larger role.
At 6-3, Frolov blends strong puck tracking and athleticism with smart positioning. He’s calm under pressure, sharp with his save selection and excels when facing high-danger chances. His aggressive play style adds value and could become a strength if developed well.
Splitting time across three MHL teams, he showed adaptability and consistency behind varied defenses and should have little issue adjusting to a KHL role next season. There are some who believe Frolov will go early in the second round, as his size, pure athleticism and demeanor are attractive to teams.
54. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
Gard projects as a reliable bottom-six checking center with the motor, size and defensive IQ to earn an NHL role. He excels at pushing attackers to the perimeter, disrupting attacks and forechecking. Gard plays with nonstop energy, combining strength and good body positioning to win battles and create space for his teammates.
While he’s primarily a defensive player, there are signs that further developing his playmaking and speed could increase his offensive output. If his offensive development plateaus, Gard’s high motor, detail-oriented game makes him a strong bet to anchor an NHL fourth line, because he’s exactly the type of player coaches trust in the defensive zone and on the penalty kill.
55. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
One of the most polarizing players in the draft class, Ryabkin is a boom-or-bust power forward with middle-six upside. He blends a quick release, creativity and punishing physicality, albeit very inconsistently.
After a slow start in Russia, his move to the USHL reignited his game, where he became a top goal scorer in the second half. He’s a threat off the rush with one-timers and in-tight finishes, and there are flashes of playmaking ability. His inconsistent pace, poor decision-making and undisciplined physicality limit his reliability and NHL potential.
If he can dial in his effort and details, Ryabkin’s unique blend of skill and grit could make him a dangerous NHL scorer. Otherwise, he’s unlikely to be an NHL player, which is why he’s a candidate to fall out of the top two rounds.
56. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
Czata projects as a bottom-six checking center with strong defensive instincts, penalty-killing value and underrated playmaking ability. Despite a drop in production, his defensive play was impressive, with good positioning, physicality and ability to disrupt plays.
Offensively, he shows flashes of quality passing ability and spatial awareness, especially off the puck. His responsible two-way game and hard skill make him a strong candidate for an NHL depth role, but he’ll need to add some speed and develop his offensive playmaking ability to be anything more than a fourth-line center.
57. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Trethewey projects as a No. 4/5 two-way defenseman with a blend of powerful skating, physicality and a heavy shot.
As the season progressed, he improved his scanning, stickwork and breakouts, and he become a steady shutdown presence for the NTDP. He takes away time and space, delivers punishing hits and activates with confidence. The next step is to improve his decision-making and passing when he activates.
As his defensive details and play under pressure continue to develop, Trethewey’s strong physical tool kit gives him legitimate NHL potential as a hard-nosed, second-pair defenseman.
58. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
Stockselius projects as a third-line, two-way forward with strong playmaking instincts, hard skill and projectable physical tools. A quality passer with high-end hockey sense, he consistently creates offense with intelligent playmaking and passing.
He led Djurgardens in playoff scoring and became a key contributor for Sweden’s under-18 team. As the season progressed, Stockselius started to physically engage and use his body more effectively, which should only improve as he physically matures.
He is a below-average skater in terms of speed and mechanics, and will likely need to improve that to hit his ceiling as a middle-six contributor. If he does not improve his skating — but can continue compensating with smart positioning and physical play — he’s likely to become a bottom-six contributor in the NHL.
59. Haoxi (Simon) Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
Haoxi Wang is a true project with second-pair NHL upside because he has a rare blend of size (6-6) and elite mobility.
A late arrival to competitive hockey, Wang is still learning the game but shows potential to become two-way defenseman by eliminating space, escaping pressure and skating pucks through transition. OHL competition exposed his rawness as a prospect, with inconsistent reads and turnovers, but he consistently improved his retrievals, breakouts and defensive play.
With significant development, Wang could become a rangy, shutdown defenseman with decent puck-moving ability. He’s a high-risk, high-reward swing who will test any team’s development staff.
60. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
It remains to be seen where the diminutive Mooney will go, but he’s one of my favorites in the draft class. He’s a high-energy winger with explosive speed, quick hands and a motor that doesn’t have an off switch. He’s dynamic off the rush and consistently beats defenders with his speed and puck handling.
Despite concerns about his 5-7 frame and questionable decision-making, he has more separating skills than many in this area. Many smaller players don’t play the defensive side of the puck, but that doesn’t describe Mooney. He’s consistently above the puck, in good positions and far more physically engaged than anyone his size — as well as most who have 5 inches and 25 pounds on him.
The fact that he thrives in chaos makes me believe his hockey sense and decision-making will improve. If he develops his playmaking, Mooney could become a middle-six spark plug with two-way impact who provides complementary scoring.
61. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
If a team wants a versatile Swiss Army knife type of player who can fill many roles, this is their guy.
Paupanekis showed two sides this season: shutdown specialist in Spokane, and play driver in Kelowna. A competitive, physical center with NHL-ready defensive detail, Paupanekis consistently shut down opposing top lines. He is not special at anything, but he does everything at an average or better level, and plays a professional style. He stays above the puck, supports his teammates, wins battles and it doesn’t hurt that he’s 6-4. His skating and hands allow him to manage pressure and make plays at speed, showing there is more offensive upside to give.
While his scoring instincts are a work in progress, his speed, strength and penalty-killing potential give him a clear bottom-six NHL projection with room to grow into more.
62. Tyler Hopkins, F, Kingston (OHL)
Hopkins projects as a bottom-six forward with a projectable defensive game and the motor to be reliable in a checking role. He defends with pro details, remaining patient, engaging physically and disrupting plays both on the forecheck and in transition. With good puck protection skill, he wins many of his puck battles.
Offensively, he makes efficient passes and has the skating to beat other players to pucks. While his offensive upside is limited, his playmaking has some developable traits. Given Hopkins’ high floor as penalty-killing, reliable two-way forward, he’s what scouts call a “safe bet” to reach the NHL as a fourth-line forward.
63. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
At 6-5, Kettles has a good blend of size, physicality and strong defensive instincts. Trusted in all key defensive situations, he uses his long reach and good positioning to close gaps, force attackers to the perimeter and win battles along the boards.
His puck moving is limited, which is likely related to his risk-averse style, but he did show flashes of being able to make plays under pressure. His skating and mobility need to develop for his play under pressure to improve, but he’s one of the youngest players in the draft class and has a longer development path than most. Kettles has the tools to become a dependable, hard-to-play-against blueliner in a No. 4/5 shutdown role.
64. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
Epperson made the most of his second draft-eligible season, earning top-line minutes next to Michael Misa and proving he could drive play on his own. He’s a relentless forechecker who reads the play to time his routes and stifles the breakout.
Epperson has a good blend of above-average playmaking, good hockey sense and a nonstop motor. He creates space, plays connected with his linemates, and supports plays across all three zones. He’ll need to add a step or two to be effective at the NHL level.
While he remains a project, the combination of two-way play, puck-moving skill and hockey sense gives him a shot at carving out a third-line NHL role.
Honorable mentions
Adam Benak, F, Youngstown (USHL)
Aleksei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
Conrad Fondrk, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Malte Vass, D, Farjestad (J20 Nationell)
Will Ohio State claim the Big Ten title in 2025, or will Penn State finally break through in 2025?
The college football season is less than a month away, and it looks like these two perennial Big Ten powers will have the best shot to not just win the conference, but the College Football Playoff, too. But it won’t be without stiff competition from Oregon, which won the league last season.
In addition to the Big Ten’s playoff race, eyes will be on UCLA and Nico Iamaleava following his exit from Tennessee.
We get you caught up on the Big Ten by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, power rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFP outlook
Should be in: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon. Defending national champion Ohio State always will be penciled into the CFP field, even after losing 14 NFL draft picks, tied for the most in team history. The Buckeyes have wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, considered the nation’s best overall player, as well as safety Caleb Downs, arguably the No. 1 defender. But it’s Penn State, not Ohio State, that enters the fall as possibly the Big Ten’s strongest national contender. The Nittany Lions replace less than the other three teams that reached last year’s CFP semifinals, as they return quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and several standout defenders. Oregon is amazingly being overlooked a bit after winning the Big Ten in its debut season and becoming the only FBS team to finish the regular season at 13-0. The Ducks lost 10 NFL draft picks but will return a talented defensive front seven and add several top transfers and recruits.
In the running: Illinois, Michigan, Indiana. Illinois returns the core players from its first 10-win team since 2001, and it could become this year’s version of Indiana, especially with more explosiveness on offense and stout line play. If the Illini can navigate September road tests against Duke and, yes, Indiana, look out for Bret Bielema’s squad. Michigan hopes to rejoin the CFP mix after its strong finish to last season, leaning on a talented defensive front and possibly incoming freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. Indiana largely will be counted out, but not here, as the team retained several All-Big Ten players from the historic CFP team, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen from the portal. Iowa occasionally found itself in the four-team CFP mix and could take a leap if transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski elevates the offense.
Long shots: Nebraska, USC, Minnesota, Washington. Nebraska has had a tough time merely making bowl appearances in the Big Ten, but could be primed for a jump in wins, as quarterback Dylan Raiola returns to lead the squad. The Huskers are also helped by a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Oregon, and has no true road game until Oct. 11. USC is still seeking its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley and could enter the mix if it plays better away from home, where it dropped four games by seven points or fewer. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is also seeking better results in one-score games and told ESPN that the CFP “isn’t a pipe dream.” Washington is only two years removed from a national title game appearance and brings back a team with upside, particularly dynamic young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. — Adam Rittenberg and Jake Trotter
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s Big Ten conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two huge nonconference games — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. That second part is key, as neither Penn State (two) nor Ohio State (three) have many projected close games on the docket.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and Michigan at Oklahoma (Sept. 6). The biggest games of Weeks 1 and 2 are Big Ten vs. SEC affairs, though they take on different flavors. Texas-Ohio State is a rematch of last year’s delightful CFP semifinal, in which Jack Sawyer’s late scoop-and-score ended a Longhorns comeback attempt. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes will almost certainly start out in the AP top 5. Meanwhile, Michigan and Oklahoma are looking for ways back into the top 10, and both will bring remodeled offenses to the table.
Illinois at Indiana (Sept. 20). If things play out as forecasted and we have two different races going on in the Big Ten — the big names vying for the conference title and the pool of 14 other teams fighting among each other for another playoff spot — then this is the biggest Illinois-Indiana game of all time. The loser will have to be just about perfect to get to 10-2 and a potential bid.
Oregon at Penn State (Sept. 27). The Week 5 slate is overloaded with big games, but this will almost certainly be the biggest. The Ducks and Nittany Lions will almost certainly be a combined 7-0 at this point, as neither team will have played a top-50 team.
USC at Illinois (Sept. 27) and Indiana at Iowa (Sept. 27). Like I said, there’s just way too much going on in Week 5. Goodness.
Michigan at USC (Oct. 11). By this point, Michigan will have already played at Oklahoma and Nebraska and could be 5-0 and in the top 10, or 3-2 and flailing. USC will have just visited Illinois and could be 5-0 or flailing as well. This game will be huge, for any of about 17 different reasons.
Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1). In terms of combined SP+ ratings, this is the single biggest game of the 2025 regular season.
Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8). Whether PSU is coming off of a win or a loss in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will desperately need to move on and avoid a hangover.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29). Proof that even in a 12-team CFP era, a rivalry loss can send you into a spectacular, existential tailspin. (And proof that you might be able to steer out of it a little better now.)
Three freshmen to watch
Malik Washington, QB, Maryland
Washington already arrived on campus facing immense expectations after the four-star Maryland native opted to stay home and attend the school he grew up idolizing. His spring game showing — he went 12-of-18 for 170 yards and two touchdowns — did little to dispel any optimism he could become the face of a program resurrection in College Park. At 6-foot-5, 231 pounds, Washington is a true dual-threat with arm talent and mobility. His accuracy and ability to change arm angles should mesh well in an RPO scheme. Carving out a path to contention in the Big Ten won’t be easy, and he’ll need to beat out UCLA transfer Justyn Martin for the starting gig, but Washington has game-changing tools.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
No freshman in college football faces more scrutiny than Underwood, who arrived in Ann Arbor as the highest-ranked player in the class and signed a multi-million dollar NIL deal after a lengthy pursuit by his hometown Wolverines. Underwood’s spring was more solid than exceptional, and he went 12-of-26 for 187 yards in the spring game, which included an 88-yard touchdown, but also a pair of sacks and several overthrows. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore hasn’t named a starter and has been consistent that Underwood is battling with Jadyn Davis, Jake Garcia, and Mikey Keene for the role, but Michigan’s offense has its highest ceiling with Underwood at the helm. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Underwood combines raw speed, clean footwork in the pocket and natural arm strength. The ball jumps out of his hand and he’s adept at keeping plays alive on the run to move the chains. It might require some patience — which isn’t easy in Ann Arbor — but Underwood has the ceiling of a dominant, Heisman Trophy-contending signal caller.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon
Moore arrived in Eugene as the highest-graded high school receiver ESPN has evaluated since 2020, then dazzled Oregon teammates and coaches alike during the Ducks’ spring practices. Moore won the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game MVP and totaled more than 4,000 receiving yards at famed Duncanville High School in Texas. He’s also a decorated track star, and his blazing speed and savvy route-running ability should find a home in Oregon’s offense on Day 1. Moore’s offseason work has only helped solidify the high expectations. He could quickly become a reliable option for new starting QB Dante Moore, and his role in the offense only becomes more important with Evan Stewart set to miss at least a significant portion of the season with a knee injury. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Cal | Top 100 rank: 4
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: Mendoza was an incredible find for Cal, an under-the-radar three-star out of Miami who was committed to Yale until the Bears extended a late offer. He developed into one of the best young QBs in the country after taking over as Cal’s starter for their final eight games in 2023. As a sophomore, he was the ACC’s third-leading passer with 3,004 passing yards and raised his completion percentage to 69% (second in the ACC) while scoring 18 total touchdowns with just six interceptions over 11 games. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 41 sacks last season but overcame inconsistent protection to have a really productive year with strong performances against Miami and Auburn and a 98-yard game-winning drive to beat rival Stanford. Mendoza is viewed as one of the most promising QBs in the country by several personnel departments. — Olson
Scout’s take: Mendoza is one of the most undervalued players at the position in college football. He’s 6-5, a great athlete and is tough as nails. He was sacked a lot and kept getting back up. Mendoza can make all of the throws and is a sneaky, crafty athlete. — Luginbill
What he brings to Indiana: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti values production over potential when it comes to recruiting the transfer portal. He’s getting plenty of both with Mendoza as his successor to Kurtis Rourke. Mendoza is looking to take his game to another level in the Big Ten and help make the Hoosiers a contender again in Year 2 under Cignetti. — Olson
Transferring from: Tennessee | Top 100 rank: 5
HT: 6-6 | WT: 220 | Class: Redshirt freshman
Background: Well, this was a stunner. While there were rumors of discontent in late December at the winter portal deadline, it was still shocking that Iamaleava left a College Football Playoff team and hit the open market during the spring in search of a better deal than the one he had with the Vols. Tennessee invested a ton of money in Iamaleava and even successfully fought off an attempted NCAA investigation into the seven-figure agreement he struck with the Vols as a five-star high school recruit. He had an awful lot of hype to live up to as a redshirt freshman starter in 2024 and put together a solid year, throwing for 2,616 yards, completing 64% of his passes with 22 total touchdowns and nine turnovers while leading the Vols to 10 wins. Iamaleava closed out the season with a rough CFP performance, completing 14 of 31 passes for 104 yards in a 42-17 first-round loss to eventual national champ Ohio State, and still has plenty of room to grow. But it is exceptionally rare that a QB of his caliber becomes available in the spring. Iamaleava is looking to keep progressing and play up to his first-round potential. — Olson
Scout’s take: There is no debating that Iamaleava is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in college football. He was highly coveted out of high school because of his stature, arm strength and athletic ability. During his one season as a starter, he showed flashes of brilliance but also mediocrity. He threw 19 touchdowns, but four of the nine touchdowns in SEC play came against Vanderbilt and seven came against Chattanooga and UTEP. Consistency is where he has to improve. He has the arm strength and overall talent to be a terrific vertical deep ball passer, but he has been wildly inconsistent in terms of accuracy in that regard. There are still tools here, but he will likely be playing on a team that is less talented than the one he just left. Meaning: He’s going to have to be better than he has ever been. — Luginbill
What he brings to UCLA: This ordeal might have played out perfectly for the Bruins. They’re getting a potential top-10 quarterback on a reduced contract who will generate a lot of attention for this program entering coach DeShaun Foster’s second year. Iamaleava’s arrival will cost them App State transfer QB Joey Aguilar, who reentered the portal after going through spring practice with the Bruins and landed at Tennessee. The challenge going forward for Iamaleava is learning OC Tino Sunseri’s system and winning over his new teammates this summer, but he’ll certainly be motivated after his split with the Vols. — Olson
Transferring from: Nevada | Top 100 rank: 7
HT: 6-8 | WT: 309 | Class: Redshirt junior
Background: The massive pass protector was a three-year starter for the Wolf Pack primarily at left tackle and brings invaluable experience with more than 2,300 career snaps. He did not surrender a sack during his junior season and picked up honorable mention All-Mountain West recognition. World is viewed as a potential first-round draft pick by NFL scouts entering his final season of eligibility and is making the move up to the Power 4 to prove he merits that praise. — Olson
Scout’s take: World is a huge presence with very good pass pro skills at left tackle. He has added 42 pounds since high school and retained his initial quickness and flexibility. World does a terrific job riding defenders past the pocket with his length and mobility. He plays balanced with good feet and shows his basketball background mirroring defenders in his set. He’s not as effective versus the run. World’s pad level can get high, but he’s still very productive at washing defenders down to open run lanes. — Tucker
What he brings to Oregon: Offensive tackle was one of the critical portal needs for the Ducks. Ajani Cornelius graduating and Josh Conerly Jr. potentially going pro made adding starter-caliber tackles a priority for Oregon, and it was able to hold off Texas A&M and Nebraska in this battle. A one-year addition makes sense to help give the Ducks’ young big men more time to develop. — Olson
Numbers to know
4: The number of seasons it has been since defending national champion Ohio State won the Big Ten title, the Buckeyes’ longest drought since a six-year stretch from 1987 to 1992.
8: The number of Big Ten quarterbacks who were in the top 25 of the ESPN300 recruit rankings at some point in their high school careers, the most of any conference. Those QBs are Michigan’s Bryce Underwood (No. 1 in 2025), Oregon’s Dante Moore (No. 2 in 2023), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (No. 9 in 2024), Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair (No. 10 in 2025), Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola (No. 11 in 2024), USC’s Sam Huard (No. 16 in 2021), UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava (No. 23 in 2023) and Michigan’s Jake Garcia (No. 24 in 2021).
+200: Ohio State’s odds of winning the Big Ten championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for the Big Ten favorite in at least 15 years. Penn State is the second choice at +225. — ESPN Research
Power rankings
0:52
Should Penn State be the No. 1-ranked team in the country?
Heather Dinich joins “Get Up” to share why she believes Penn State should be the top-ranked team going into the new college football season.
If not this year, then when for the Nittany Lions? As other Big Ten powers sift through QB questions, Penn State features three-year starter Drew Allar, who has the makeup to be a first-round pick next spring. Throw in a dominant running game spearheaded by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a talented defense now led by veteran coordinator Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions have the pieces to win the Big Ten — and even the national title.
The defending national champions lost a record-tying 14 players to the NFL and must fill significant holes at quarterback and along both the offensive and defensive lines. But Ohio State also has arguably the nation’s best two players in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, other standouts such as wide receiver Carnell Tate and linebacker Sonny Styles, and notable transfers such as tight end Max Klare (Purdue). Never count out the Buckeyes.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dillion Gabriel, one of the most prolific QBs in recent college football history, is gone, leaving tantalizing former five-star recruit Dante Moore in charge of the Ducks’ offense. A season-ending knee injury to star wide receiver Evan Stewart stings. But Oregon still has enough on either side of the ball to defend its Big Ten title.
After winning 10 games for the first time since the Big Ten championship season of 2001, Illinois has its sights on the team’s first CFP appearance. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and outside linebacker Gabe Jacas are part of an impressive returning group that must navigate tricky September trips to Duke and Indiana before a home showdown with Ohio State on Oct. 11.
All eyes will be on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has already been turning heads in Ann Arbor with his work ethic and dual-threat abilities. The Wolverines have the running game and figure to be stout defensively once again. If Underwood can supercharge the passing attack, the Wolverines could be back in contention for a playoff spot.
How will Coach Cig (Curt Cignetti) follow a historic debut that featured a team-record 11 wins and a once unthinkable CFP appearance? Indiana retained All-Big Ten players on both sides of the ball, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen in the portal. The key for IU will be better line-of-scrimmage play in its biggest games, as the schedule doesn’t look nearly as favorable.
7. The Hawkeyes are banking that transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who won an FCS national title, can jumpstart a perennially moribund Iowa offense. Iowa’s offensive line, led by standout center Logan Jones and tackle Gennings Dunker, should be elite. If the defensive-minded Hawkeyes can finally find a way to put up points, they could be dangerous.
After reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016, Nebraska is targeting much bigger goals under third-year coach Matt Rhule. The Huskers have a favorable schedule with no true road games until Oct. 11 and no Ohio State or Oregon. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has had a full offseason to develop under playcaller Dana Holgorsen.
9. USC Trojans
The Trojans lost five games by one score last season, tied for the most in the FBS. Playing from ahead will be critical for the Trojans, who trailed in 11 of their 13 games in 2024. The defense under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn took a step forward last season, but the Trojans need more improvement — they still allowed 5.83 yards per play (15th in the Big Ten).
Could Minnesota be a wild-card CFP contender? “This isn’t a pipe dream,” coach P.J. Fleck told ESPN, pointing to a record in one-score games that, if improved, could elevate the team’s outlook. Minnesota has a solid defense, a potential two-way star in Koi Perich and will lean on first-year starting quarterback Drake Lindsey for a spark.
The Huskies are excited about the potential of sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr., who passed for 374 yards and totaled five touchdowns in Washington’s bowl loss to Louisville. If Williams builds off that performance, the Huskies could surprise offensively, with 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman flanking him in the backfield.
12. After a tough first year and a relatively quiet offseason, Michigan State could creep up on teams during coach Jonathan Smith’s second year. The Spartans made some key portal additions at offensive line and wide receiver to help second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Areas to improve include takeaways and better play on the road, where MSU was 1-4 in 2024.
13. Athan Kaliakmanis is back after becoming the first Rutgers QB since 2015 to pass for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Defensively, the pass rush could be a strength with the arrivals of transfers Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio), who were both all-conference performers. Rutgers ranked just 84th nationally with only 22 total sacks last season.
14. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have gone all-in on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Tennessee transfer whose return home could signal a shift in how UCLA will operate under coach DeShaun Foster. If Iamaleava meets expectations and a defense with many new players and coaches shines, UCLA could rise in these rankings after a season where it had wins against Iowa and Nebraska.
15. Injuries robbed any chance Wisconsin had of fielding a viable offense in 2024, as the Badgers ranked 102nd nationally in passing (197 yards per game) on the way to losing their final five games. The onus is now on transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) and new coordinator Jeff Grimes to turn that around.
16. After bottoming out on offense in 2024, Northwestern had its most successful winter transfer portal haul, which included quarterback Preston Stone (SMU), wide receiver Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State) and several linemen. The Wildcats face a huge opener at Tulane and several tricky Big Ten road contests, but bowl eligibility should be within sight.
Coach Mike Locksley recently admitted he lost the locker room in 2024 over which players to pay, as the Terrapins stumbled to a 1-8 Big Ten record. Maryland doesn’t have much coming back offensively, either, though keeping four-star QB Malik Washington in state has given the Terrapins an intriguing player to rebuild around. The true freshman is battling UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and redshirt freshman Khristian Martin for the starting QB job.
18. Barry Odom is back in the Power 4 following an impressive run at UNLV. He takes over a Purdue team with almost an entirely new roster and a schedule that includes Notre Dame and Ohio State. Moderate improvement is the goal for Odom, whose track record on defense and with personnel suggests better days are ahead. — Rittenberg, Trotter
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Alden Gonzalez
Max Muncy returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ lineup on Monday, Aaron Judge was back in the New York Yankees‘ batting order on Tuesday, and with that, the two teams that met in last year’s World Series — and had been underperforming to varying degrees in recent weeks — received valuable reinforcements for the stretch run.
They’re far from alone.
Now that the trade deadline has passed and less than two months remain in the regular season, contending teams throughout the sport are counting on key players returning from injury in the days and weeks ahead, hoping they might make the difference between missing out on October and winning it all. And given the landscape, which many consider as wide-open as ever, they just might.
Below is a look at some of the most impactful players on their way back.
Expected return date: The injury to Álvarez’s right hand has featured plenty of drama and required a lot of patience. The Astros initially diagnosed it as a muscle strain in early May and began the process of ramping him up by late June. Then came lingering pain, prompting a visit to a specialist and the revelation that the outfielder was dealing with a fractured bone. Perhaps, though, there is a light at the end of this tunnel. Álvarez resumed hitting off a tee and taking soft toss a couple weeks ago and hit on the field at the team’s spring training facility on Tuesday. The Astros are going to be really careful this time around, but there is hope he can help them down the stretch.
What he means to the team: The Astros lost Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker over the offseason and have received just 121 plate appearances from Álvarez — and a paltry slash line of .210/.306/.340 — yet they’re on pace for their eighth American League West title in nine years. You would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive development this season. When healthy, Álvarez is on par with Judge and Shohei Ohtani among the game’s most imposing hitters. Given how well the Astros have pitched, plugging Álvarez back into the middle of their lineup — with an ascending Jeremy Peña, a better-of-late Jose Altuve and what they hope is a rejuvenated Carlos Correa — could put them in the conversation for the best team in the AL, if not all baseball.
Expected return date: Right-hander Assad, out all year with a left oblique injury he reaggravated around late April, made his third rehab start on Wednesday, looking sharp while pitching into the fifth inning. His next step could be joining the rotation. Taillon is right behind him. The 33-year-old right-hander has been dealing with a right calf strain for a little more than a month but pitched three innings in a Triple-A rehab start on Sunday. He gave up seven runs, but he also came out of it feeling healthy. That’s all that matters at this point. Cubs starters not named Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga have combined for a 4.63 ERA this season. And at this point, there is no outside help coming.
What they mean to the team: The Cubs did not land the controllable front-line starter they desired before the trade deadline. The starter they did acquire, Michael Soroka, pitched two innings in his debut on Monday, then landed on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort. Now, the Cubs need to make up for what they lack in their rotation internally. Assad fashioned a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts last year and was effective both out of the rotation and in the bullpen in 2023. Taillon, a proven innings eater who consistently pounds the strike zone, is probably as good a complement to Boyd and Imanaga as the Cubs can get.
Expected return date: Bieber, who had Tommy John surgery, has not taken the mound in a major league game since April 2, 2024, but the former Cy Young Award winner’s return is approaching. The right-hander made his fifth rehab start — and first since being acquired by the Blue Jays — on Sunday, striking out six batters across five innings. He’ll make another start on Saturday, then perhaps one more after that. Then the Blue Jays will see if they can get the front-line starter they envisioned when they unloaded promising pitching prospect Khal Stephen to pry Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians last week.
What he means to the team: The Blue Jays are counting on several offensive contributors returning in the not-too-distant future, including George Springer, Andrés Giménez and, they hope, Anthony Santander. But Bieber is the wild card. If he’s close to what he was even after winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020 — a guy who put up a 3.13 ERA and struck out 459 batters in 436⅔ innings from 2021 to 2024 — he can join Kevin Gausman and José Berríos to form a really solid rotation trio in October. But the initial returns from Tommy John surgery can be tricky. Just ask Sandy Alcántara.
Expected return date: Bohm took a sinker to his left side on July 12 and later learned he had suffered a fractured rib, but the 29-year-old third baseman has been hitting ground balls and taking batting practice and will now venture out on a rehab assignment. He could return to the Phillies’ lineup this month. Nola went on the injured list for the first time in eight years because of a sprained right ankle in mid-May, then was diagnosed with a stress reaction in one of his ribs a month later. Now, Nola is finally on his way back. He went 3⅔ innings in his second rehab start on Wednesday and will make one or two more before rejoining the rotation.
What they mean to the team: Bohm and Nola have served as catalysts while these Phillies have ascended to near the top of the sport in recent years, and it’s hard not to see them having a massive say — good or bad — in October. The Phillies need them to be healthy, but they also need them to be better. Bohm was slugging just .391 before going down. Nola, meanwhile, carried a 6.16 ERA through his first nine starts — one year after receiving Cy Young votes. The Phillies’ rotation has been one of the game’s best this season, and it can handle an ineffective Nola if it absolutely has to. But the offense needs Bohm’s production.
Expected return date: Burger is navigating his second stint on the IL this season, this time because of a left quad strain, but he has played in a couple of rehab games and could return before the end of the Rangers’ current homestand. Carter, an outfielder, was shut down with back spasms on Saturday, and though there’s currently no reason to believe it’s a serious injury, it’s worrisome when you consider how back issues plagued him in 2024.
What they mean to the team: The 2025 Rangers do everything well except the one thing they felt they could do best: hit. And while the offense has been a lot better lately, the Rangers could use more production from Burger and Carter in hopes of grabbing a playoff spot in a wide-open AL. Burger has slashed just .228/.259/.401 in his first year in Texas, but could at the very least platoon with fellow first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who has been a godsend since signing a minor league deal in early July. Carter, a rookie sensation during the stretch run of the team’s championship season in 2023, was slashing just .238/.323/.381.
Expected return date: Gasser, the 26-year-old left-hander who excelled in his first five major league starts last year, is in the late stages of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. His fourth rehab start came Sunday, during which he threw 16 pitches in the game and 19 in the bullpen. The Brewers are building him back up as a starter, so he still needs to increase his pitch count. But he’s on track to join a loaded Brewers pitching staff before the end of August. So is rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski, who suffered a bruised left shin last week but isn’t expected to miss much more than the minimum amount of time. Outfielder Jackson Chourio, who landed on the IL with a hamstring strain last week, could be back by the end of the month, too.
What he means to the team: The Brewers acquired Gasser as part of the package that sent former closer Josh Hader to San Diego in summer 2022 and watched him shine as a rookie in 2024, putting up a 2.57 ERA with one walk in 28 innings. But then his ulnar collateral ligament gave out, triggering a long rehab that is finally reaching its conclusion. The Brewers see him as a starter long term, but there might not be room for him in the 2025 rotation. If that’s the case, he can be an impact lefty out of the bullpen. The Brewers acquired only one traditional reliever in Shelby Miller before the trade deadline, largely because they believe starters like Gasser, Chad Patrick and Tobias Myers can help them out of the bullpen when it matters most.
Expected return date: It has been a long, slow climb back for Greene and the right groin strain he suffered, for a second time, on June 3. The right-hander seemed to be approaching a return in July, but he experienced lingering pain and had to shut it down once more. Now, though, his return seems imminent. Greene navigated a third rehab start on Sunday, during which he struck out seven batters in 3⅓ innings, and is scheduled to ramp up to 80 pitches on Friday. After that, he could rejoin the rotation. With Nick Lodolo shut down with a blister that materialized on his left index finger in his Monday start, the Reds need Greene now more than ever.
What he means to the team: Here’s what Greene has done since the start of last July: 1.92 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 133 strikeouts, 30 walks, 112⅔ innings. Those are the numbers of not just a traditional front-line starter, but of one of the best pitchers in the game. The Reds have hung around all year, getting better starting pitching than they probably anticipated, but less offense than they hoped. They’ve underperformed their projections, but they still sit just three games back of a playoff spot. Greene — and Lodolo, who might require only a minimum stint on the injured list — could make the difference.
Expected return date: For the better part of two months, questions swirled around the state of King’s health and whether he would pitch at all this season. The 30-year-old right-hander was dealing with a thoracic nerve issue in his right shoulder, an exceedingly rare injury for a pitcher. He simply had to wait for the pain to subside, with no idea when it would. Now, though, he is on the doorstep of returning to the major leagues. King threw 61 pitches in 3⅓ innings in a rehab start on Sunday, allowing six runs but also striking out five batters. His next start is expected to come this weekend against the Boston Red Sox.
What he means to the team: Padres general manager A.J. Preller put together an epic trade deadline, upgrading at catcher, adding two competent bats to the lineup and, most notably, landing another impact arm for the bullpen. His starting-pitching additions, though, were depth players; JP Sears and Nestor Cortes are not expected to make playoff starts. What the Padres need is for King — their Game 1 starter in last year’s postseason, their Opening Day starter this year and owner of a 2.59 ERA in his first 10 starts — to join Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta in the rotation to truly make this one of the most well-rounded teams in the sport. It seems that will happen.
Expected return date: Kopech, nursing a right knee injury, has been throwing bullpen sessions and is expected to be activated once he’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list in late August. Left-hander Scott, dealing with elbow inflammation, has also been throwing off a mound and doesn’t seem far off, either. Yates’ situation, though, is a little hazier. The 38-year-old right-hander had been dealing with lower back pain for a couple weeks before landing on the IL at the start of August. There is no timetable for his return, though it seems possible that he, too, can be back before the end of the month.
What they mean to the team: The Dodgers have once again absorbed a slew of injuries throughout their staff, having already deployed 38 pitchers — one year after setting a franchise record by using 40. Their bullpen has led the majors in innings for most of this season. At the deadline, though, the front office acted conservatively, adding just one bullpen arm, right-hander Brock Stewart, along with reserve outfielder Alex Call. The approach showed confidence in the arms the Dodgers have coming back, especially in the bullpen. But Scott and Yates, their two big offseason signings, have combined for a 4.21 ERA this season. Right-hander Kopech, meanwhile, has appeared in just eight games. They’ll have a lot to prove.
Expected return date: Optimism around Meadows emerged on Monday, with some light running in the outfield — a subtle sign he is progressing once again toward a rehab assignment. Meadows, 25, missed the first two months of the season with inflammation in his upper right arm that he later learned was a product of issues with his musculocutaneous nerve. He spent most of June and July in the lineup, then landed on the injured list once more, this time because of a right quad strain. The hope is that he can be back playing center field before the end of August.
What he means to the team: Meadows accumulated 11 outs above average in center field from 2023 to 2024 despite playing in only 119 games. In that stretch, he also stole 17 bases, provided a .729 OPS — with fairly even splits against lefties and righties — and accumulated 3.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement. As the Tigers march toward their first division title in 11 years and vie for a first-round bye, they find themselves longing for Meadows in several ways. The hope is that he’ll be a much better hitter than he showed earlier this season, when he slashed .200/.270/.296 in 137 plate appearances.
Expected return date: Megill has been absent from the Mets’ rotation since the middle of June because of a right elbow sprain but threw 20 pitches in a simulated game at Citi Field on Sunday. He is expected to extend to two innings in another session on Thursday. A rehab assignment will follow shortly thereafter, putting Megill on track to potentially rejoin the Mets’ rotation later this month. Megill was solid before going down, posting a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts, and the Mets’ rotation could really use some of that right now.
What he means to the team: When Megill got hurt on June 14, the Mets’ rotation easily led the majors with a 2.82 ERA. Since then, the group has posted a 5.12 ERA, ranked 26th. Lately, it has only gotten worse. The Mets have lost eight of their past nine games, and in that stretch, the starters have allowed 34 runs (32 earned) in 43⅔ innings. Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga have all had their struggles, to varying degrees, of late. And though Megill certainly can’t fix that alone, another capable starter would certainly be welcomed.
Expected return date: Miller, limited to just 10 starts this season, cruised through his first rehab start on Friday, tossing four scoreless innings, and is scheduled to stretch to five innings on Thursday. Given that he has gone on the IL because of right elbow inflammation twice this year, requiring a cortisone shot and a platelet-rich plasma injection, the Mariners will play it safe — Miller will make two more rehab starts before being activated. Robles dislocated his left shoulder while making an incredible catch in San Francisco on April 6 and is way ahead of schedule. He’s expected to begin a rehab assignment next week and could return before the end of August.
What they mean to the team: Robles is the Mariners’ leadoff hitter and spark plug. Over a 77-game stretch after Seattle signed him as a free agent last summer, he slashed .328/.393/.467. And if he can produce something close to that, a Mariners offense that added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez before the trade deadline and has received a dominant season from Cal Raleigh will be as deep as it has been since Jerry Dipoto took over baseball operations 10 years ago. The Mariners haven’t received as much from their rotation as they would have expected this year, but a staff of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Miller — 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA while healthy last year — still rivals the best in the game.
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David Hale
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the debate between the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 over the future of the College Football Playoff, it’s that committees are awful. They get it wrong nearly every year despite the fact that they’ve mostly gotten it right.
Of course, Top 25 lists are no better. You know who votes in those? Reporters and coaches. Reporters clearly don’t know ball, and coaches don’t have the time to watch the games. We can’t trust them either.
There was a time when we entrusted computers with assembling a proper ranking of teams. The BCS crunched the numbers based on some nebulous inputs and spat out the results. And while it might feel like ChatGPT could step in now and become a neutral arbiter, it would also be one more step toward our eventual demise as a species. If humans can’t rank college football teams, it’s just a matter of time before we’re all controlled by a sentient version of those coffee delivery drones.
No, there is really just one honest way to evaluate college football’s 136 FBS teams, and that is to sort through all the data, talk to a host of coaches and players and analysts, and then unilaterally put them into tiers.
And with that, we give you the most official, guaranteed-to-be-accurate, tiered preseason ranking for the 2025 season.
Jump to a section:
Cream of the crop | Teams that are hot | Big Ten’s ticking clocks
Room for improvement | Could be talked into them
Tier 1a: A great matchup for Week 1 and/or the championship game (two teams)
Last season, Ohio State won a national championship and, according to virtually every coach we’ve asked, the Buckeyes were the most talented team in the country all along. Only, if the playoff had waited one more year to expand, Ohio State would’ve missed out, and Ryan Day might’ve been looking for a job.
There’s a fun thought experiment to be done with those facts in mind: Did expanding the playoff give more teams an opportunity to win it all, or did it simply ensure that the best teams wouldn’t miss their chance due to something fluky (or, in Ohio State’s case, something that has become increasingly common)?
We pose this question because it may apply to the Buckeyes again in 2025. With a bevy of veterans off to the NFL from the 2024 national championship team and a fresh-faced quarterback taking over the offense, it’s entirely reasonable to think Ohio State might need a few weeks to get rolling again. The only problem is the Buckeyes don’t have an inch of runway: Texas is waiting in Week 1.
In another era, this game wouldn’t just be the marquee event of the opening weekend but a turning point in the season. The loser would then face another 11 games while residing on a knife’s edge. A second loss — to Michigan, perhaps — would doom the Buckeyes. Texas would still have an entire SEC slate ahead with no margin for error. And yet, it could still be entirely true that the loser of this game would have a claim to the title of the country’s most talented squad.
Of course, this is the 12-team playoff era (and soon to be the 14-, 16- or, if Eli Drinkwitz has his way, 30-team playoff era) which means that the first showdown between Ohio State and Texas will be but an appetizer, and both schools will remain the most likely to hoist the trophy in late January.
Is that better? Would the 2024 campaign have been more fun if Ohio State had been left out because of the loss to Michigan?
With all due respect to the folks in Ann Arbor nodding their heads like they’re at a Pantera concert, the verdict seems to be that the sport benefits when the best teams get as many bites at the apple as they need to close the deal.
Tier 1b: The rest of the best (three teams)
At this year’s SEC media days, we posed a question to one of the league’s upper-tier coaches: How many teams each season can really win it all?
His answer: Four. Maybe five.
This is the secret that few in college football like to discuss, because it invariably quashes hope for lots of other fan bases, and aside from five-star recruits, hope is a program’s most valuable commodity.
But this coach is certainly not alone. It’s a theory posited again and again by folks inside the sport. Just who those four or five teams are may change from year to year, but no matter how much the playoff expands, the number of teams who realistically have a chance to still be standing at the end remains mostly fixed.
That’s sort of the point of why we’re ranking teams by tiers. There are lots of “good” teams, but how many are really within striking distance of winning a national title? Probably four or five.
Now, we could be wrong about the makeup of that five-team upper tier. There’s a first time for everything, after all. But if we’re looking at top talent, a path to the playoff, recent history and we’re properly reading our Magic 8 Ball, then Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are at the front of the line (alongside Ohio State and Texas).
The potential pitfall for each? QB play.
Georgia turns things over to Gunner Stockton, who started last year’s playoff loss to Notre Dame but also drives a 1985 Ford F-150. Aside from a T-bird with a gold eagle on the hood, there’s no better vehicle a QB can drive to provide assurance that he knows what he’s doing.
At Oregon, Dan Lanning turns to Dante Moore, the former prized recruit for UCLA who learned behind Dillon Gabriel last season. Moore has ample talent to get the job done, and if he struggles early, there’s at least a 20% chance Phil Knight bribes Tom Brady to come out of retirement, don a fake mustache and use the name “Dom Frady” to lead the Ducks to a title.
And then there’s Drew Allar, who enters his second year with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki alongside arguably the most talented supporting cast in the Big Ten. The pressure is on for Allar — who has been very good but not entirely elite — to finish the job. We can’t help but feel like Penn State replacing the old press box at Beaver Stadium is exactly the type of curse-ending decision Allar and the Nittany Lions needed to change their fortunes.
Tier 2: Playoff expectations (six teams)
Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU
Anything less than a playoff appearance would feel like a serious disappointment for the teams in Tier 2. None feel like an absolute lock, though.
Michigan’s schedule is certainly accommodating. The only team on the docket to finish 2024 with more than seven wins is Ohio State, on the final Saturday of the regular season. But Michigan also has QB questions, with freshman Bryce Underwood considered the likely starter. Last season’s offensive woes led to five losses on the heels of a national title, so getting the QB choice right is an imperative.
Notre Dame and Alabama are breaking in new QBs, too. CJ Carr has plenty of hype and the Irish probably have their best skill position depth in Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The Tide lost four games last season for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut campaign. Patience will be thin in Tuscaloosa, making Kalen DeBoer’s handling of the quarterback room a tricky situation. Ty Simpson, a once-prized recruit, has the inside track, but freshman Keelon Russell is incredibly talented. Could this look a little like the 2016 opener, when Blake Barnett got the start only to be benched in favor of a freshman by the name of Jalen Hurts after two drives?
LSU hasn’t won an opener since 2019. Clemson has lost three of its past four openers. Something has got to give when the two teams face off in Week 1. Clemson can probably survive a defeat, even if Dabo Swinney’s critics will begin the chorus once again that he’s past his prime. LSU will have a tougher time recovering with a schedule that still includes Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Brian Kelly’s head exploding with fire like the red guy in “Inside Out” should at least provide some entertainment if things go south in Baton Rouge.
Then there’s Miami, a team with all the talent to make a title run but enough self-inflicted wounds over the years to wonder if it’ll be the likes of Stanford or Virginia Tech that trip up the Canes.
(Note: It’ll be Syracuse. We all know it’ll be Syracuse.)
Tier 3: Someone in the SEC has to lose games, too (six teams)
Florida
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Fun fact: All 16 SEC teams rank among the 20 hardest schedules in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics, from the grueling path for Florida (No. 1) to the easy (relatively speaking) slate at Missouri (No. 20).
We know you’re shocked to learn that life is difficult in the SEC. The league so rarely mentions its depth or strength of schedule, and its coaches are reticent to suggest that their teams deserve any additional benefit of the doubt as a result. Oh wait, they’re actually contractually obligated to mention it in every interview.
Lane Kiffin drew the ire of some ACC fans when he said another SEC coach suggested it’d be easier to play Clemson each week than an SEC schedule. That may have been an exaggeration, but according to ESPN Research, a slate that included eight games against Clemson plus a reasonable nonconference schedule would work out to be almost exactly as difficult as the schedule Florida plays this season.
The Gators play eight teams that have spent time in the AP top 10 in the past two seasons, all of whom have rosters made of a majority blue-chip recruits. By SP+, the Gators get six of the top 13 teams (and also Long Island). It’s a schedule DJ Lagway called “fun” and Florida fans call “less enjoyable than a root canal.”
Now, others may parse the data differently, but the bottom line is inarguable: No one in the SEC has an easy ride to the playoff, which makes Tier 3 likely to include at least two playoff teams and at least two schools that fire their coaches, and the difference between those camps will be a few plays one way or the other.
The SEC is designed to eat itself, which is one of the reasons it has pushed so hard for increased playoff access. There’s simply not a scenario in which every school that invests in winning, has a playoff-caliber roster and whose fans expect to make a playoff run, will actually do so.
Tier 4: Last year’s playoff surprises (four teams)
Arizona State
Boise State
Indiana
SMU
In 2023, Arizona State and Indiana each won three games, Boise State fired its coach after a 5-5 start, and SMU was in the American Athletic Conference and lost in a bowl game to Boston College.
In 2024, they were all playoff teams.
The initial 12-team playoff was truly remarkable in that it didn’t simply reward 12 blue bloods. It coincided with an abrupt change in the sport that allowed complete afterthoughts in September to play meaningful football in December and January.
Yes, playoff expansion was the key here, but it’s true, too, that the era of name, image and likeness, the transfer portal, and bloated conferences that equate to disparate schedules set the stage for far more volatility in the standings than ever before. The top end of the bell curve may remain static at four or five elite teams, but the meat of it keeps getting wider.
Indiana and Arizona State both went from three wins to double digits. In the entire playoff era (minus the COVID year), that had only happened one other time at a Power 5 school (2017 Michigan State, who promptly regressed to 7-6 the next year).
SMU came within a hair’s breadth of winning the ACC title. TCU, Utah, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston — the past six teams to move up from a non-power league — were a combined 16-38 in conference play in their first years in a Power 5 conference, and none had a winning record.
Since firing Andy Avalos after that 5-5 start, Boise State has won 15 of 18 games, with all three losses coming to Power 4 foes.
Life moves quickly in college football these days. The big question as this foursome looks to return to the College Football Playoff is whether the pendulum swings just as fast in the other direction.
(Note from Tallahassee: It does.)
Tier 5: So hot right now (four teams)
Illinois
Louisville
Texas Tech
Utah
We probably shouldn’t use last year’s playoff as an indication of what the future may hold. It’s a one-year sample size, after all. But 2024 gave us six first-time playoff teams, and odds are, we’ll get two or three more this season. And when it comes to predicting who those teams might be, the schools in Tier 5 are the hottest things since Hansel hit the runway in “Zoolander.”
There’s plenty of buzz that this year’s Indiana could be Illinois. If the implication is that the Illini could be a surprise playoff team out of the Big Ten, it makes sense. But the key difference here is Indiana came out of nowhere to go 11-1 last regular season. An Illinois run into the playoff would be far less shocking. The Illini went 10-3 last season, with two losses coming to playoff teams. They also beat Michigan (transitive property national champs!) and South Carolina (though that doesn’t count because the SEC doesn’t care about meaningless bowls). Bret Bielema has built something that looks an awful lot like his old Wisconsin teams — veteran QB, heavy dose of the run game behind a massive O-line, stout defense — capable of competing with nearly anyone. Of course, those Wisconsin teams were notable for being routinely good but never quite great. How high is the ceiling for Bielema now?
Utah enters this season as a trendy pick in the Big 12 thanks to some returning stars, an expectation that last year’s bad luck has to turn, and finally opening a season with someone other than the hollowed-out shell of Cam Rising at QB.
If luck kept Utah from the Big 12 race last season, it may have kept Louisville from the playoff. The Cards lost four games — three to top-15 teams — all by a touchdown or less, along with a defeat at the hands of Stanford that will go down as possibly the single dumbest way to lose a football game that didn’t involve throwing a shoe.
And if you’re not psyched for Texas Tech this year … how much cash would it take to change your mind?
Tier 6: The Big 12 is the new ACC Coastal (four teams)
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
TCU
Ever play credit card roulette? When the bill comes at a restaurant, everyone at the table puts their credit card into a hat, then the server picks one at random to pay the entire bill. That’s effectively how the Big 12 is looking right now. (In this analogy, though, Texas Tech should probably be picking up any checks.) Look at the betting markets and every team in the conference is projected to win between 5.5 and 8.5 games this season.
So, throw the names into a hat and pull one out. You’re as likely to get it right as we are.
Tier 7: Flying beneath the radar like Tom Cruise in ‘Maverick’ (five teams)
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Washington
We’ve seen a lot of change in college football in recent years, which has made Iowa’s offense such a needed through line connecting the modern version of the sport with an older generation. Granted, that generation probably lived through the Great Depression, but let’s not split hairs. Nevertheless, there were signs that even the Hawkeyes might be taking a small step forward, as the offense scored 40 points in a game four times last season — something Iowa had done just four times in the previous four seasons combined. Now, Iowa has a QB it likes in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, the defense should be stout again, and nobody punts like the Hawkeyes.
Kansas was 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year but also had wins over three straight ranked teams in November. With a more settled offensive approach and the return of Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks look like a potential sleeper.
Not counting the 2020 COVID-19 season, Minnesota is one of just 15 teams to win 60% of its Power 5 games. That’s more impressive than it sounds. It’s better than Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami and Texas A&M. The Gophers enter 2025 with a ton of intriguing pieces led by Koi Perich and Darius Taylor, and while the schedule includes road trips to Ohio State and Oregon, there’s certainly a path for PJ Fleck to get Minnesota back to the 10-win plateau.
Fun fact: Since Brent Key took over as head coach at Georgia Tech on Sept. 26, 2022, the Yellow Jackets have as many wins against ranked foes (six) as Clemson and more than Penn State (five), Oklahoma (four) or LSU (four). In fact, they have more than Miami, Colorado, Boise State, Indiana and BYU combined — and all five of those teams finished last year in the top 25. Of course, in that same span, Georgia Tech has losses to Virginia, Bowling Green, Virginia Tech and Vandy. So, it’s a work in progress.
Washington is a work in progress, too. In Year 1 under Jedd Fisch, the Huskies floundered to a 6-7 record, including losses to Washington State and Rutgers. But Demond Williams Jr. looks like a difference-maker at QB, and it’s worth remembering that at Arizona, Fisch went from a completely noncompetitive 1-11 in Year 1 to 5-7 in Year 2 with one of the most improved teams in the country. Washington may still be a year away, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Huskies take a big leap forward now before threatening in the Big Ten in 2026.
Tier 8: Regression to the mean (the bad kind) (five teams)
BYU
Duke
Missouri
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
This group of teams won 32 games against Power 4 opponents last season. Twenty-four of them (75%) came by a touchdown or less.
Missouri and Duke each won four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter.
BYU and Syracuse each won double-digit games despite being outscored against FBS opponents last season.
Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt.
Look up and down the list of luck-influenced metrics, and these teams raise more red flags than Kanye’s Bumble profile.
Perhaps these guys all fend off the fickle college football gods for another year, but if the “Final Destination” movies have taught us anything, it’s that Ali Larter should be in more movies. But if there’s another thing they taught us, it’s that you can only avoid a disastrous fate for so long.
Tier 9: Regression to the mean (the good kind) (four teams)
Auburn
Florida State
NC State
Virginia Tech
This spring, ESPN’s Bill Connelly dug into three metrics that often rely heavily on luck: turnovers, close games and injuries. His findings: A lot went wrong for Florida State last year.
Now, it’s admirable that Connelly dug deep into the numbers, ran some regression analysis and employed NASA-level computing power to identify this. Another way to do it would’ve been to simply watch five minutes of FSU football last season, because at any given moment, something ridiculous was going wrong for the Seminoles.
You simply don’t go from 13-1 to 2-10 without the football gods deciding to do some serious smiting.
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, from Connelly’s stats — FSU was 128th in turnover luck, 90th in close-game luck and 110th in lineup consistency — to the types of things that were probably a bit more predictable (settling for DJ Uiagalelei at QB over Cam Ward).
It should be noted that, once again, FSU has rolled the dice on a QB with a checkered past, and Tommy Castellanos seems intent on taunting the aforementioned football gods, but at the very least, some of that bad luck has to go the other way in 2025, putting the Seminoles on course to improve by a good measure.
The same can be said for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 1-12 under coach Brent Pry in games determined by a touchdown or less, but it’s also worth noting that last year marked the first time since 2010 the Hokies didn’t lose a single regular-season game by more than 10.
NC State adds to the ACC’s run of bad luck last season, with Grayson McCall‘s early-season injury upending the offense and a 45-point year-over-year swing in points off turnovers for a team that lost five games by 10 or fewer points.
But the team that might have the best chance to turn the disappointments of 2024 into a serious playoff run in 2025 is Auburn. Jackson Arnold takes over at QB for an offense loaded with skill-position talent. The defense should be solid. Then look at the luck-based numbers: Auburn was 124th in turnover luck and dead last in close-game luck, which covered up the fact it was among the best teams in the country in success and explosive play rate differential. The pieces are in place, the Tigers just need a little more luck to make a run at 10 wins.
Tier 10a: The Big Ten’s ticking clocks (three teams)
Matt Rhule, Lincoln Riley and Luke Fickell each seemed like absolute home run coaching hires. Setting aside Riley’s 11-1 start to his tenure at USC, the three are now a combined 40-39 overall with a 23-32 record in Big Ten play since Dec. 1, 2022. That has put all three in a position to make 2025 a must-win year. What exactly “winning” means probably differs a bit by school, but the pressure is on.
Nebraska might be best equipped to make the leap to the next level. Dylan Raiola goes into Year 2 running the offense, but it’ll be his first full season with Dana Holgorsen calling the plays. Add in that, at some point, Nebraska’s run of awful luck in close games has to swing the other way and it’s not unfathomable that the Huskers are in the mix for a playoff bid.
For Wisconsin, it’s a return to the Badgers’ foundations as Fickell has abandoned plans to bring an up-tempo passing attack to the stodgy Big Ten and will build around the ground game.
At USC, Riley lost a ton of big-name talent in the portal and will move forward with a QB who has 19 touchdown passes and 17 turnovers in nine career starts against teams with a winning record.
They can’t all turn it around this year, which makes this perhaps the most interesting portion of the Big Ten’s standings.
Tier 10b: The Group of 6’s other top playoff contenders (six teams)
Liberty
Memphis
James Madison
Toledo
Tulane
UNLV
Liberty is the gold standard in soft scheduling. The Flames have the worst preseason strength of schedule in the country after finishing 2024 with … the worst strength of schedule in the country. Half of Liberty’s 12 games are against teams that were at the FCS level in 2021. It has four games against first-year head coaches. Eight games come against teams that won four or fewer FBS games last year. Jamey Chadwell should have a good team, but the schedule also should make it nearly impossible to finish worse than 10-2.
UNLV and Memphis both figure to be in contention for the Group of 6’s playoff bid, and their schedules certainly make the path a little easier. The Rebels (No. 113 schedule) have a home game against UCLA and a road trip to Boise State to contend with, but they also have eight games against teams ranked 100th or worse in preseason FPI (including six ranked 120th or worse). Memphis (No. 106 schedule strength) also has a relatively clear path. The Tigers get Arkansas — their lone Power 4 opponent — at home, miss Army, Tulane and UTSA from the conference schedule, and follow the game against the Razorbacks with five games in six weeks against teams that finished a combined 15-41 vs. FBS opponents last year. If Memphis can topple the Hogs, expect the Tigers to enter November with a top-20 ranking.
Since 2022, no Group of 5 team has won more games than Tulane (32). The Green Wave ought to again be among the best of the American in terms of talent, but the schedule is no easy task to manage. In nonconference play, Tulane hosts Northwestern, goes on the road to South Alabama, hosts Duke (and QB Darian Mensah, who transferred from Tulane after last season), then travels to Ole Miss. In conference play, Tulane gets ECU, Army, UTSA and Memphis — four of the six other American teams to make a bowl last year. If Tulane makes the playoff, it will have earned the spot.
Could Toledo make a run at the playoff? The Rockets open with a trip to Kentucky, which isn’t exactly an insurmountable hill to climb unless you’re Ole Miss. Win that and the next week against Western Kentucky, and Toledo should have a little buzz. Then check out the back half of the schedule: vs. Kent State, at Washington State, vs. NIU, at Miami (Ohio), vs. Ball State and at Central Michigan. Those six teams finished a combined 16-24 in the second half of last season.
JMU has won 28 games in three seasons since moving up from the FCS, and of its nine losses, four have come by a touchdown or less. The Sun Belt is deep, but it’s not top-heavy, opening the door for the Dukes to make a run at the Group of 6’s playoff bid.
Tier 11: Potential sleepers (seven teams)
Cincinnati
Colorado
Houston
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Virginia
This tier includes Deion Sanders and Bill Belichick so, for media purposes, it should probably be Tier 1. But there are still some big questions surrounding Colorado and UNC.
For the Buffaloes, it’ll be the first time Coach Prime will have to go to battle without Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter. Colorado has topped 150 yards on designed runs only once in two years under Deion Sanders, and the Buffs’ 74 designed rush yards-per-game in that stretch is, by far, the worst in the country. How will Colorado adapt after losing two of the most explosive players in the country in the passing game?
UNC has completely overhauled its roster from the Mack Brown era, with Belichick dipping heavily into the transfer portal — including nearly three dozen spring portal additions. Numerous coaches who spoke with ESPN said this spring was an incredibly shallow pool of talent. Can that actually translate to wins or will 2025 be more about building a foundation than reviving the program?
Instead, it might be the lower-profile programs in this tier who have the real upside.
Virginia added transfer QB Chandler Morris alongside one of the better portal classes in the ACC and plays one of the weakest schedules of any Power 4 school this season. Louisville, Washington State and Duke are the only opponents on this season’s slate that won more than six games in 2024.
Houston showed signs of promise in Year 1 under Willie Fritz with wins over TCU, Utah and Kansas State, even if the final record was ugly (4-8). An offensive overhaul led by Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman should help a program that finished 133rd in scoring last season.
Each of the past two seasons, Rutgers has gone 6-6 with a four-game losing streak in the mix then won a bowl game. Usually, that would count as real success at a place like Rutgers, but coach Greg Schiano clearly has higher aspirations, and the Scarlet Knights might have the talent to push for bigger things in 2025.
Cincinnati blew a big lead to Pitt in Week 2. Pitt went on to start 7-0 before injuries and a handful of close losses derailed its season. Had Cincy hung on, it could’ve opened 6-1 with a win over Arizona State on its record. Instead, the Bearcats finished on a five-game losing streak and did not make a bowl. Both teams are deeper and more experienced this season, with veteran QBs and stars on defense (Kyle Louis, Dontay Corleone).
Tier 12: Even Stevens (seven teams)
Arkansas
Boston College
Cal
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan State
UCLA
In the playoff era, BC has finished with either six or seven wins nine times.
Arkansas is 30-31 under Sam Pittman. Not counting the COVID-19 season, it’s 20-21 vs. FBS teams. The Hogs are 21-9 vs. teams with a losing record and 9-22 vs. teams with a winning record.
Cal has finished with between five and seven wins six times in the playoff era, and it has 61 games (fifth most nationally) decided by a touchdown or less.
Since 2018, Michigan State is 41-41 — though that includes seasons of 11-2 and 4-8.
Since Mark Stoops’ second year, Kentucky is 65-63 vs. FBS opponents. From 2015 to 2023, the Wildcats were 31-29 in SEC play.
UCLA is 66-64 in the playoff era, averaging 29.6 points and surrendering 29.1 points against FBS opposition.
Now, Oscar Wilde said that consistency was the last refuge of the unimaginative, but The Rock said success was more about consistency than greatness. Who are you going to believe — some long-dead writer or the star of “Jumanji: The Next Level”?
Tier 13: Stars & stripes (three teams)
Army and Navy were a combined 22-5 last season. In 2023, Air Force won nine games. In the playoff era, the military academies have 11 10-win seasons. And they’ve done it all without NIL deals or taking transfers.
Now, if we wanted to really protect America’s interests, we’d start putting tariffs on the portal and using that money to fund academy revenue sharing.
Tier 14: Room for improvement (six teams)
Arizona
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
UCF
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Arizona and Oklahoma State were a combined 20-7 (and 14-4 in conference play) in 2023. Both fell off a cliff in 2024.
The Wildcats struggled in Year 1 under Brent Brennan, but they bring back Noah Fifita at QB and showed enough life that a step forward in 2025 isn’t unrealistic.
Mike Gundy has made it a habit of having big seasons mixed with mediocre ones in the past few years, but last year’s winless Big 12 schedule was an anomaly. Gundy is high on QB Hauss Hejny, who should at least be able to open things up a bit for the run game.
Wake Forest is getting a fresh start under new coach Jake Dickert. The roster needs work — QB and O-line are blank slates — but the Deacons bring back a talented tailback in Demond Claiborne and have the weakest schedule in the Power 4.
UCF is looking to go back to the future by bringing Scott Frost home after his dismal stint at Nebraska. Frost inherited a train wreck during his first stint in Orlando and turned things around quickly — though that was in the American, not the Big 12.
For virtually the entirety of this millennium, Northwestern has effectively put the same team on the field — shaky QB, good defense, smart players — and watched as the results either come up with 10 wins and a run at the Big Ten or a 3-9 season that’s physically painful to watch.
Aside from the surprising 9-4 season in 2023, West Virginia has won either five or six games every year since 2019.
In other words, it’s hard to feel particularly good about any team in this tier, but it’s also entirely within reason that some team here wins 10 games.
Tier 15: Group of 6 with upside (15 teams)
App State
Buffalo
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Fresno State
Louisiana
Ohio
North Texas
South Alabama
Texas State
Troy
UConn
South Florida
UTSA
Western Kentucky
North Texas has been a perennial six-win team, but this could be the Mean Green’s chance to make a big leap up the standings. They check-in only one spot ahead of Liberty with the No. 135th-ranked schedule in the country, miss ECU, USF, Memphis and Tulane in conference play, and after Oct. 1, they go on the road only three times — to Charlotte, UAB and Rice.
Florida Atlantic was another team snakebit by bad luck last season. As Connelly noted in his analysis of teams facing the worst luck, only one program finished 111th or worse in all three categories he evaluated: FAU. Now add new head coach Zach Kittley and QB transfer Caden Veltkamp and there’s a lot to like about the Owls’ upside.
South Alabama also had plenty of bad luck in close games. The Jaguars lost to Ohio, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Texas State — all teams that won eight or more games — by a combined 20 points.
Tier 16a: At least you tried (three teams)
Mississippi State
Purdue
Stanford
Stanford has won nine Power 5 games since 2021. Five of them came against teams that either finished ranked in the top 25 or were ranked there at the time of the game. Another came against Deion Sanders. Stanford makes no sense.
Mississippi State is 2-16 vs. Power 5 competition in the past two years. The two wins are by a combined 11 points. The losses are by an average of 18.
Purdue. More like Pur-don’t. We’ll show ourselves out.
Tier 16b: The lost boys (two teams)
In the past 24 months, Oregon and Washington agreed to move to the Big Ten for 40 cents on the dollar. Stanford and Cal took even less from the ACC. SMU agreed to play ACC ball for nothing, and Memphis just offered the Big 12 $200 million for an invite.
Why?
Because of zombified remains of Washington State and Oregon State.
From former Cougars QB John Mateer, who transferred, along with his offensive coordinator, to Oklahoma after last season’s surprising 8-4 finish, on seeing what became of Wazzu after the Pac-12 fell apart: “I loved my time there. I never thought I’d leave. It sucked. I couldn’t control it. I was going to play against whoever I was going to play against, but it broke my heart.”
Tier 17: They’re fine. Solid. Decent. OK. (10 teams)
Arkansas State
Bowling Green
Colorado State
Georgia Southern
Miami (Ohio)
Northern Illinois
Old Dominion
San Diego State
San José State
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall had New Mexico on the verge of a bowl last season, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he rights the ship quickly at Utah State.
Eddie George inherits a solid squad at Bowling Green, and he’s thinking — well, either aspirationally or he’s delusional — that the Falcons can win big.
Jay Norvell has gone from three to five to eight wins in his time at Colorado State. This could be his real breakthrough season.
Unfortunately for NIU, it lost out on an easy win without Notre Dame on the schedule this season.
Tier 18: We could be talked into them (eight teams)
Coastal Carolina
Hawai’i
UL Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston
Southern Miss
UAB
Wyoming
Hawai’i won five games and missed out on beating UCLA and UNLV by a combined five points. The Rainbow Warriors are trending in the right direction.
Louisiana Tech finished 5-8, but its first six losses of the season all came by 10 points or fewer.
ULM finished on a six-game losing streak, even wasting a chance to embarrass Hugh Freeze at Jordan-Hare in late November, which had become one of our favorite Group of 5 traditions.
Tier 19: The best entertainment you’re likely to find on a Tuesday night in mid-November (12 teams)
Central Michigan
Delaware
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Jacksonville State
Marshall
Missouri State
Nevada
Temple
Tulsa
UTEP
Western Michigan
You might be surprised to learn that Delaware is an FBS football program beginning this season. To help with your preseason preparation, here are some fun facts to familiarize yourself with the program.
The Blue Hen is the only explicitly female mascot in FBS football (not counting Mrs. Wuf at NC State).
Delaware’s winged helmet design was created by former coach David Nelson, a former Michigan football player, who essentially cut and pasted his former team’s look.
Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco both played at Delaware.
Delaware is, in fact, an entire state and not just 18 miles of highway between toll booths in Maryland and New Jersey.
Tier 20: Participation trophies (11 teams)
Akron
Ball State
Charlotte
Georgia State
Kennesaw State
Kent State
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Rice
Massachusetts
You know what they call the guy who finishes last in his class at medical school? They call him “doctor.” And so it is that the teams in Tier 20 are technically FBS football programs, though they’re as likely to finish with a conference championship as they are to finish medical school themselves.
Since the end of 2022, Kent State has had a head coach quit to become a coordinator for Deion Sanders (then be demoted), another get fired for taking loans from a booster and the program posting a 1-23 record, including 21 straight losses. Last season, Kent State was outgained by an average of 282 yards per game — 120 more than any other team. The Golden Flashes play Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma in the first five weeks this season.
Last season, Ball State became only the fourth team of the playoff era (not counting the 2020 COVID season) to have a turnover margin of plus-2 or better and still be outscored by at least 14 points per game and outgained by at least 100 yards per game. So, what happens if the turnover luck is a little worse in 2025?
Then there’s Charlotte, a program that couldn’t even afford sleeves for its last head coach, has had only one winning season in its history, and now faces the second-most daunting schedule of any Group of 6 team in the country. Per ESPN’s metrics, the 49ers’ schedule is tougher than all but one Big 12 team.
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