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Moderate Labour MPs are planning a “reasoned amendment” to oppose the government’s disability benefit cuts, Sky News understands.

Nearly 100 Labour MPs are understood to have given their backing to this measure, which means the government could be defeated on its flagship welfare reforms.

MPs who have not yet gone public with their criticisms have signed the motion, calling for a delay to assess the impact of cuts to personal independence payments (PIP).

They express concerns, according to a draft seen by Sky News, about the government’s own figures showing 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty, and what the forecast is for how many may find employment.

The reasoned amendment was tabled by Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury select committee, with the support of 12 other select committee chairs.

Other senior figures, who are normally loyal to the party leadership, are understood to be spearheading the reasoned amendment, which would need to be selected by Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle when MPs debate the legislation next week.

It is an attempt to force the government to water down the benefit changes, in advance of the vote. It is understood that 99 MPs had signed it by Monday evening.

More on Keir Starmer

The amendment emerged as Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall was addressing the weekly gathering of Labour MPs and peers to sell the reforms to PIP and universal credit. The government argues the welfare bill is rising “unsustainably”.

Opponents of the changes to sickness and disability benefits say opinion among Labour MPs has hardened since the draft legislation was published last week.

Dozens of MPs are said to have expressed concerns to party bosses, including junior ministers and aides. A party whip resigned her post last week to oppose the reforms.

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Government’s battle over welfare reforms

Some MPs, who have not yet spoken publicly, told Sky News the chances of the government losing the vote were “under-priced”.

It is understood that No 10 officials have told concerned MPs they would be “voting with Nigel Farage” and “will bring us all down” if they vote against the changes.

On Monday night, Ms Kendall told a meeting of Labour MPs that they must back the changes, saying the survival of the welfare state depended on it.

Some current PIP claimants are set to lose their benefits when they are reassessed from the end of next year.

Ms Kendall said: “There is no route to social justice based on greater benefit spending alone.

“The path to fairer society – one where everyone thrives, where people who can work get the support they need, and where we protect those who cannot – that is the path we seek to build with our reforms.

“Our plans are rooted in fairness – for those who need support and for taxpayers.

“They are about ensuring the welfare state survives, so there is always a safety net for those who need it.”

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The warfare v welfare dilemma

The first vote on the legislation is next week, and a defeat would be a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s plans to cut the welfare bill, which the government say is becoming “unsustainable”.

Ms Kendall has been reassuring MPs that nine out of 10 PIP claimants will keep their benefits, and those who are most vulnerable will be protected.

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Bitcoin to end four-year cycle, break out to new highs in 2026: Grayscale

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Bitcoin to end four-year cycle, break out to new highs in 2026: Grayscale

Bitcoin’s latest pullback may already be bottoming out, with asset manager Grayscale arguing that the market is on track to break the traditional four-year halving cycle and potentially set new all-time highs in 2026.

Some indicators are already pointing to a local bottom, not a prolonged drawdown, including Bitcoin’s (BTC) elevated option skew rising above 4, which signals that investors have already hedged “extensively” for downside exposure.

Despite a 32% decline, Bitcoin is on track to disrupt the traditional four-year halving cycle, wrote Grayscale in a Monday research report. “Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year,” the report said.

Bitcoin pullback, compared to previous drawdowns. Source: research.grayscale.com

Related: Cathie Wood still bullish on $1.5M Bitcoin price target: Finance Redefined

Still, Bitcoin’s short-term recovery remains limited until some of the main flow indicators stage a reversal, including futures open interest, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and selling from long-term Bitcoin holders.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs, one of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025, added significant downside pressure in November, racking up $3.48 billion in net negative outflows in their second-worst month on record, according to Farside Investors.

Bitcoin ETF Flow, in USD, million. Source: Farside Investors

More recently, though, the tide has started to turn. The funds have now logged four consecutive days of inflows, including a modest $8.5 million on Monday, suggesting ETF buyer appetite is slowly returning after the sell-off.

While market positioning suggests a “leverage reset rather than a sentiment break,” the key question is whether Bitcoin can “reclaim the low-$90,000s to avoid sliding toward mid-to-low-$80,000 support,” Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

Related: Strategy unveils new credit gauge to calm debt fears after Bitcoin crash

Fed policy and US crypto bill loom as 2026 catalysts

Crypto market watchers now await the largest “swing factor,” the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Dec. 10. The Fed’s decision and monetary policy guidance will serve as a significant catalyst for 2026, according to Grayscale.

Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 63% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CMEgroup.com

Later in 2026, Grayscale said continued progress toward the Digital Asset Market Structure bill may act as another catalyst for driving “institutional investment in the industry.” However, for more progress to be made, crypto needs to remain a “bipartisan issue,” and not turn into a partisan topic for the midterm US elections.

That effort effectively began with the passage of the CLARITY Act in the House of Representatives, which moved forward in July as part of the Republicans’ “crypto week” agenda. Senate leaders have said they plan to “build on” the House bill under the banner of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, aiming to set a broader framework for digital asset markets.

The bill is currently under consideration in the Republican-led Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott said in November that the committee planned to have the bill ready for signing into law by early 2026. 

Magazine: Bitcoin to see ‘one more big thrust’ to $150K, ETH pressure builds