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Sir Keir Starmer said the UK is set to increase spending on defence, security and resilience to 5% of GDP by 2035 to meet an “era of radical uncertainty” – but without promising any additional cash.

The move – part of a new spending pledge by the NATO alliance – was panned as deceptive “smoke and mirrors” by critics, who pointed to the very real risk of escalating conflict between Iran, the US and Israel, as well as Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Sky News the timeline for the increase was “very slow” and warned Russia could attack a NATO country within five years.

“In my view, this is slow because we believe that starting from 2030, Putin can have significantly greater capabilities,” he told chief presenter Mark Austin.

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‘Russia could attack a NATO country’

The prime minister, Donald Trump and the other leaders of NATO’s 32 member states are expected to approve the investment goal when they meet at a summit in The Hague, which opens later today.

It replaces a previous target to spend 2% of GDP purely on defence.

The announcement will be celebrated as a win for the US president, who has been demanding his allies spend more on their own defences instead of relying on American firepower.

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Overnight, he claimed to have secured another success, declaring that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire – just hours after Iran launched missiles against two American military bases in retaliation to a US decision to attack three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.

Perhaps it will mean he will switch attention back to achieving a goal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, which will be another key focus of the gathering in the Dutch capital.

NATO planners have crunched the summit down to a short main session tomorrow, with a final communique much briefer than usual – all steps designed to reduce the chance of the US president leaving early.

He is already scheduled to arrive late and last this evening, provided he turns up.

There is huge nervousness about Mr Trump’s commitment to an alliance that has been the bedrock of European security since it was founded more than 75 years ago.

He is not a fan though, and has previously accused Europe and Canada of an overreliance on American firepower for their own security, calling for them to do more to defend themselves.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands during a joint press conference in the East Room at the White House, February 27, 2025 in Washington, D.C., U.S. Carl Court/Pool via REUTERS
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Trump is expected to join Starmer and fellow leader NATO leaders at The Hague. Pic: Reuters

This pressure has arguably been a bigger motivator in prompting certain allies to agree to spend more on their militaries than the threat they say is posed by Russia, Iran, China and North Korea.

Spain’s position could create friction this week. The Spanish prime minister, while agreeing to the new investment goal, has said his country is not obliged to meet it.

The UK was also slow to say yes – a stance that was at odds with a defence review endorsed by Sir Keir that was centred around a “NATO-first” policy.

As well as agreeing to the defence and security investment goal, the British government is also publishing a new national security strategy on Tuesday that will highlight the importance of a wider definition of what constitutes security, including energy, food and borders.

There will also be a focus on a whole-of-society approach to resilience in an echo of the UK’s Cold War past.

A view shows the venue of the upcoming NATO summit, in The Hague, Netherlands June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Preparations for the NATO summit at The Hague. Pic: Reuters

It described the commitment to invest in defence, security and national resilience as an aligning of “national security objectives and plans for economic growth in a way not seen since 1945”.

Sir Keir said: “We must navigate this era of radical uncertainty with agility, speed and a clear-eyed sense of the national interest to deliver security for working people and keep them safe.

“That’s why I have made the commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security. This is an opportunity to deepen our commitment to NATO and drive greater investment in the nation’s wider security and resilience.”

The funding will be split, with 3.5% of GDP going on core defence and 1.5% on homeland security and national resilience – a new and so far less clearly defined criteria.

Progress on investment will be reviewed in 2029.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 10 Downing Street, in London, Britain June
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Starmer today met with Zelenskyy at Downing Street. Pic: Reuters

The defence goal is higher than the government’s current ambition to lift defence expenditure to 3% of GDP by 2034, from 2.3% currently.

The only solid commitment is to spend 2.6% on defence by 2027 – a figure that has been boosted by the addition of the whole of the budget for the intelligence agencies.

This level of intelligence spending had not previously been included and has drawn criticism from defence experts because it is not the same as tanks, artillery and troops.

Read more:
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The government, in its statement, is now focusing on an even higher-sounding number, claiming that it will hit 4.1% of the new NATO target by 2027.

However, this is merely based on adding the new 1.5% spending goal for “resilience and security” to the already stated 2.6% defence spending pledge.

A Downing Street spokesperson was unable immediately to say how much of GDP is currently spent on whatever is included in the new resilience category.

It could include pre-announced investment in civil nuclear energy as well as infrastructure projects such as roads and railways.

For the UK, 1.5% of GDP is about £40bn – a significant chunk of national income.

Sir Ben Wallace, a former Conservative defence secretary, accused the government of “spin” over its spending pledge because it does not include any new money anytime soon.

“The threat to our country is real not spin,” he told Sky News.

“This government thinks it can use smoke and mirrors to deceive the public and Donald Trump. This is an insult to our troops who will see no significant new money. It fools no one.”

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Tories repeat calls for Rayner to resign after lawyers claim they did not provide tax advice

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Tories repeat calls for Rayner to resign after lawyers claim they did not provide tax advice

The Conservatives have repeated calls for Angela Rayner to resign after a legal firm she used said it did not provide her with tax advice in a row over underpaid stamp duty.

Party leader Kemi Badenoch said more “damning evidence” had come to light regarding the deputy leader’s tax affairs, which is now subject to an investigation by the prime minister’s independent ethics adviser Sir Laurie Magnus.

Politics latest: Former Tory minister Nadine Dorries defects to Reform

The Daily Telegraph reported that Verrico & Associates, a conveyancing firm that handled the purchase of her £800,000 flat in Hove, East Sussex, did not in fact give tax or trust advice to Ms Rayner – and that they believed they had been made “scapegoats” in the political row.

Joanna Verrico, the managing director, told The Telegraph: “We acted for Ms Rayner when she purchased the flat in Hove. We did not and never have given tax or trust advice. It’s something we always refer our clients to an accountant or tax expert for.

“The stamp duty for the Hove flat was calculated using HMRC’s own online calculator, based on the figures and the information provided by Ms Rayner. That’s what we used, and it told us we had to pay £30,000 based on the information provided to us. We believe that we did everything correctly and in good faith. Everything was exactly as it should be.

“We probably are being made scapegoats for all this, and I have got the arrows stuck in my back to show it. We are not an inexperienced firm, but we’re not qualified to give advice on trust and tax matters and we advise clients to seek expert advice on these.”

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Sky News has approached representatives for Ms Rayner for comment as well Verrico & Associates.

The deputy prime minister, who is also the housing secretary, has been under scrutiny after the newspaper claimed she avoided £40,000 in stamp duty on the flat in Hove by removing her name from the deeds of another property in Greater Manchester.

Ms Rayner said she sold her stake in her family home in Ashton-under-Lyne to a trust that was set up to provide for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities – meaning she did not technically own that home when she purchased the one in Hove, and so was not subject to the higher rate of stamp duty that applies to second homes.

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Liz Bates on the row engulfing Angela Rayner

On Tuesday Sir Keir Starmer’s deputy claimed she made an honest mistake owing to her “complex” living situation and that lawyers initially advised her she only owed the basic rate of stamp duty for the Hove property.

In an interview with Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Ms Rayner became tearful as she claimed she received incorrect tax advice and spoke to her family about “packing it all in”.

However, following subsequent media reports, Ms Rayner sought further legal advice on Monday this week which advised her that the higher rate of stamp duty was in fact due on her East Sussex flat.

The deputy prime minister has claimed she made an honest mistake as lawyers initially advised her she only owed the basic rate of stamp duty when she bought a flat in Hove in May.

Read more:
Key questions left unanswered in Angela Rayner tax row
Victim of misogyny’ or ‘freeloading’ deputy prime minister?

On the statement from Verrico & Associates, Ms Badenoch said: “This is yet more damning evidence that Angela Rayner has not been honest with the British public.

“From the start we’ve had nothing but excuses, deflections and lies. Enough is enough.

“How many final straws can there be for Angela Rayner? She must resign or Keir Starmer must finally find the backbone to sack her.”

Sir Keir Starmer has so far said he would not be drawn on Ms Rayner’s political future, but said he would “of course” act on the findings of Sir Laurie who will look into whether she broke ministerial rules.

In an interview with the BBC, Sir Keir said: “There’s a clear procedure. I strengthened that procedure. I am expecting a result pretty quickly.

“I do want it to be comprehensive … and then of course I will act on whatever the report is that’s put in front of me.”

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SEC’s agenda proposes crypto safe harbors, broker-dealers reforms

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SEC’s agenda proposes crypto safe harbors, broker-dealers reforms

SEC’s agenda proposes crypto safe harbors, broker-dealers reforms

The proposed rule changes potentially affecting SEC guidelines on broker-dealers, custody and reporting could allow crypto companies to operate in the US with less oversight.

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Fate of ‘Red Queen’ Rayner in hands of ‘quango king’ baronet

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Fate of 'Red Queen' Rayner in hands of 'quango king' baronet

The backgrounds of Angela Rayner and Sir Laurie Magnus – the sleaze watchdog who holds her fate in his hands – couldn’t be more different.

Labour’s “Red Queen” is a working-class council house girl who got pregnant at 16. He’s an old Etonian “quango king”, a City grandee and a pillar of the establishment.

He’s so posh he wasn’t awarded his knighthood in the usual way by the Monarch after being nominated by 10 Downing Street. He’s a baronet whose title is hereditary.

But though Sir Laurie’s a proper toff, he’s no pushover and he doesn’t waste time. In 2023 his investigation into former Tory minister Nadhim Zahawi’s tax affairs took just six days.

Sir Laurie concluded that Mr Zahawi’s conduct had fallen below what was expected from a minister. So the then PM Rishi Sunak sacked him for a “serious breach of the ministerial code”.

This year, Labour minister Tulip Siddiq quit after Sir Laurie said she should have been more alert to “potential reputational risks” of ties to her aunt in an anti-corruption investigation in Bangladesh.

That inquiry took eight days, so might Sir Laurie’s Angela Rayner probe take about a week? Perhaps, though it has been suggested he’s due to go on holiday on Saturday. So could his report come before then?

More on Angela Rayner

Sir Laurie was appointed by Mr Sunak more than eight weeks after he became PM. At the time, there were claims that he was struggling to find a candidate.

That was because the two previous holders of the post, veteran mandarin Sir Alex Allan and former Royal courtier Sir Christopher Geidt, both quit after disagreements with Boris Johnson.

Sir Alex quit in 2020 after finding former home secretary Priti Patel guilty of bullying. But then Mr Johnson declared that she had not breached the ministerial code.

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Angela Rayner admitted to Beth Rigby that she didn’t pay enough tax on a property she bought in Hove.

Sir Christopher, a former private secretary to the Queen, quit in June 2022 after concluding Mr Johnson may have broken ministerial rules over party-gate.

So Mr Sunak turned to Sir Laurie, a former merchant banker who served on half a dozen quangos and whose long business career involved links with disgraced retail tycoon Sir Philip Green and the late tycoon Robert Maxwell.

Read more:
Rayner admits she should have paid more stamp duty
Rayner came out fighting in Sky interview
Rayner’s tax affairs statement in full

There was immediately controversy because Mr Sunak refused to give Sir Laurie the power to launch his own investigations into allegations or ministerial wrong-doing. That changed when Sir Keir Starmer became PM last year.

But before then, Sir Laurie couldn’t launch his own inquiry into the conduct of Dominic Raab over bullying allegations or Suella Braverman over claims of leaking and ignoring legal advice over asylum.

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Sky’s Paul Kelso breaks down the facts behind Angela Rayner’s stamp duty controversy.

The role of independent adviser on ministerial standards, to give Sir Laurie his official title, was created by Tony Blair in 2006. Ministers can refer themselves for investigation, as Tulip Siddiq and Angela Rayner both did.

Why was Sir Laurie chosen? A senior Square Mile insider told Sky News: “Laurie Magnus is very much a member of the City’s great and the good.”

Sir Laurence Henry Philip Magnus, 3rd Baronet is the third in a baronetcy that dates back to 1917, when it was awarded to an ancestor who represented London University in the House of Commons.

His quango CV includes the chairmanship of Historic England, a former trustee of the conservation charity the Landmark Trust, ex-chair of the National Trust, membership of the Culture Recovery Fund, a trustee of English Heritage Trust and deputy chair of the All Churches Trust.

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Has Rayner tax issues thrown uncertainty over the Starmer project?

As Historic England boss, Sir Laurie entered the row over the tearing down of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol, claiming such statues should not be removed but have “counter-memorials” placed alongside them.

Besides his quango roles, Sir Laurie remains a major figure in the City, as a senior adviser at investment banking group Evercore and chairing two FTSE 250 listed investment trusts.

Which means that the class divide between the old Etonian City grandee and the former shop steward and champion of workers’ rights whose fate is in his hands couldn’t be greater.

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