While many Labour MPs initially indicated they backed the bill in principle, support has ebbed away over recent months amid warnings about the impact the cuts could have on the most vulnerable people in society.
Around 119 Labour MPs have now signed a reasoned amendment to oppose the government’s proposals – which, if passed, would effectively kill the legislation.
But speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby from the NATO summit at the Hague, the prime minister said the welfare system needed reform and was “not working for anyone”.
He said the vote planned for Tuesday was not a confidence vote in his leadership but on the need to reform the system.
“I think most colleagues do accept the case for reform,” he said.
“We’ve got to get on and make that reform because the options are: leave the system as it is, trusting people and not helping them, that’s not a Labour option. The Labour option is to reform it and make it fit for the future. So we’re going to press ahead with these reforms.”
Image: Sir Keir Starmer made the comments on his way to a NATO summit in the Netherlands. Pic: AP
Welfare system ‘unsustainable’
Sir Keir spoke to reporters on the way to the summit about the reforms, saying there were around 1,000 people a day signing up for personal independence payment (PIP) – equivalent to the size of the population of Leicester.
“That is not a system that can be left unreformed, not least because it’s unsustainable, and therefore you won’t have a welfare system for those that need it in the future,” he added.
“So those that care about a future welfare system have to answer the question – how do you reform what you’ve got to make sure it’s sustainable for the future?'”
Introduced in March, the government’s welfare bill outlines proposals to make it harder for some disabled people to qualify for PIP while also cutting universal credit, another benefit.
What are the main changes in the welfare bill?
The most controversial elements of the government’s welfare bill are changes to PIP and Universal Credit.
PIP is money for people who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.
People who claim it – some of whom are in work – are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.
Under the plans, from November 2026, people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP – instead of fewer points across a broader range of tasks the person needs help with.
Currently, the standard rate is given if people score between eight and 11 points overall, while the enhanced rate applies from 12 points.
The changes do not affect the mobility component of PIP.
And from April next year, the health element of Universal Credit will be frozen in cash terms for existing claimants at £97 per week until 2029/2030.
For new claimants, the health element of Universal Credit will be reduced to £50 per week.
However, ministers point to the fact that the Universal Credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30.
Overall, 3.2 million families are expected to lose an average of £1,720 by the end of 2030 due to the changes.
However, the government has stressed that these figures do not take into account the £1bn that is being put towards helping the long-term sick and disabled back into work.
It is these changes that have caused the most anxiety among MPs.
As one Labour MP told Sky News: “If the thrust of the policy is getting people into work, how does cutting support for people in work, work?
“The thrust of the proposals is right but cutting PIP and Universal Credit isn’t about getting people back into work, it’s about saving money.”
The reasoned amendment calls on the government to delay the proposals pending an assessment of the impact of the PIP cuts.
It also cites concern about the government’s own figures which show 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the changes and the lack of a formal consultation with disabled people.
One Labour rebel told Sky News there was a “broad sense of unease across all levels of the parliamentary party”.
“Almost everyone thinks there needs to be reform and there are a lot of good things in the bill, but elements need more thought and explanation if they are going to proceed,” they said.
“Unless those issues are revised, or much better explained and justified, I don’t think there is enough support for the measures. People are really worried there is a rush to do this and that we might sleepwalk into this as we have done with other issues.”
On Tuesday, Downing Street suggested the vote would still go ahead despite the concerns of some MPs – including influential chairs of parliamentary select committees.
Asked whether the government was confident it could pass the legislation, a Number 10 spokesman told reporters: “We are focused on delivering last week’s bill and engaging, talking to colleagues, as to why this reform is so important.”
Pressed on whether the vote was happening next week, they added: “I would never get ahead of parliamentary business. It’s scheduled for next week. We are committed to reforming welfare.”
Wes Streeting has stepped up his war of words with junior doctors by telling Labour MPs that strikes would be “a gift to Nigel Farage”.
In a hard-hitting speech to the Parliamentary Labour Party, the health secretary claimed ministers were “in the fight for the survival of the NHS“.
And he said that if Labour failed in its fight, the Reform UK leader would campaign for the health service to be replaced by an insurance-style system.
Mr Streeting‘s tough warning to Labour MPs came ahead of a showdown with the British Medical Association (BMA) this week in which he will call on the doctors to call off the strikes.
At a meeting in parliament at which he received a warm reception from Labour MPs, Mr Streeting said: “The BMA’s threats are unnecessary, unreasonable, and unfair.
“More than that, these strikes would be a gift to Nigel Farage, just as we are beginning to cut waiting lists and get the NHS moving in the right direction.
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“What better recruitment agent could there be for his right-wing populist attacks on the very existence of a publicly funded, free at the point of need, universal health service? He is praying that we fail on the NHS.
“If Labour fail, he will point to that as proof that the NHS has failed and must now be replaced by an insurance-style system. So we are in the fight for the survival of the NHS, and it is a fight I have no intention of losing.”
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Why are junior doctors striking again?
The threatened strikes are in pursuit of a 29% pay rise that the BMA is demanding to replace what it claims is lost pay in recent years. The government has awarded a 5.4% pay increase this year after a 22% rise for the previous two years.
Earlier, appearing before the all-party health and social care committee of MPs, Mr Streeting said the strikes would be a “catastrophic mistake” and not telling employers about their intention to strike would be “shockingly irresponsible”.
He said BMA leaders seemed to be telling their members “not to inform their trusts or their employers if they’re going out on strike” and that he could not fathom “how any doctor in good conscience would make it harder for managers to make sure we have safe staffing levels”.
He said: “Going on strike having received a 28.9% pay increase is not only unreasonable and unnecessary, given the progress that we’ve been making on pay and other issues, it’s also self-defeating.”
He said he accepted doctors’ right to strike, but added: “The idea that doctors would go on strike without informing their employer, not allowing planning for safe staffing, I think, is unconscionable, and I would urge resident doctors who are taking part in strike actions to do the right thing.”
Mr Streeting warned the strikes would lead to cancellations and delays in patient treatment and spoke of a family member who was waiting for the “inevitable” phone call informing them that their procedure would be postponed.
“We can mitigate against the impact of strikes, and we will, but what we cannot do is promise that there will be no consequence and no delay, no further suffering, because there are lots of people whose procedures are scheduled over that weekend period and in the period subsequently, where the NHS has to recover from the industrial action, who will see their operations and appointments delayed,” he said.
“I have a relative in that position. My family are currently dreading what I fear is an inevitable phone call saying that there is going to be a delay to this procedure. And I just think this is an unconscionable thing to do to the public, not least given the 28.9% pay rise.”
Following a barnstorming performance in this year’s local elections, they are now the most successful political party on TikTok, engaging younger audiences.
Image: ‘They don’t exclude anyone, we’re all the same,’ says this Reform supporter
I was at the local elections launch for Reform in March, looking around for any young women to interview who had come to support the party at its most ambitious rally yet, and I was struggling.
A woman wearing a “let’s save Britain” hat walked by, and I asked her to help me.
“Now you say it, there are more men here,” she said. But she wasn’t worried, adding: “We’ll get the women in.”
And that probably best sums up Reform’s strategy.
When Nigel Farage threw his hat into the ring to become an MP for Reform, midway through the general election campaign, they weren’t really thinking about the diversity of their base.
As a result, they attracted a very specific politician. Fewer than 20% of general election candidates for Reform were women, and the five men elected were all white with a median age of 60.
Polling shows that best, too.
According to YouGov’s survey from June 2025, a year on from the election, young women are one of Reform UK’s weakest groups, with just 7% supporting Farage’s party – half the rate of men in the same age group. The highest support comes from older men, with a considerable amount of over-65s backing Reform – almost 40%.
But the party hoped to change all that at the local elections.
Image: Sarah Pochin became Reform UK’s first woman MP in May. Pic: PA
Time to go pro
It was the closing act of Reform’s September conference and Farage had his most serious rallying cry: it was time for the party to “professionalise”.
In an interview with me last year, Farage admitted “no vetting” had occurred for one of his new MPs, James McMurdock.
Only a couple of months after he arrived in parliament, it was revealed he had been jailed after being convicted of assaulting his then girlfriend in 2006 while drunk outside a nightclub.
McMurdock told me earlier this year: “I would like to do my best to do as little harm to everyone else and at the same time accept that I was a bad person for a moment back then. I’m doing my best to manage the fact that something really regrettable did happen.”
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‘He wasn’t vetted,’ says Farage of MP
Later, two women who worked for another of Reform’s original MPs, Rupert Lowe, gave “credible” evidence of bullying or harassment by him and his team, according to a report from a KC hired by the party.
Lowe denies all wrongdoing and says the claims were retaliation after he criticised Farage in an interview with the Daily Mail, describing his then leader’s style as “messianic”.
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Farage leading a ‘cult’ says ex-Reform MP
A breakthrough night
But these issues created an image problem and scuppered plans for getting women to join the party.
So, in the run-up to the local elections, big changes were made.
The first big opportunity presented itself when a by-election was called in Runcorn and Helsby.
The party put up Sarah Pochin as a candidate, and she won a nail-biting race by just six votes. Reform effectively doubled their vote share there compared to the general election – jumping to 38% – and brought its first female MP into parliament.
The council results that night were positive, too, with Reform taking control of 10 local authorities. They brought new recruits into the party – some of whom had never been involved in active politics.
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Inside Reform’s election success
‘The same vibes as Trump’
Catherine Becker is one of them and says motherhood, family, and community is at the heart of Reform’s offering. It’s attracted her to what she calls Reform’s “common sense” policies.
As Reform’s parliamentary candidate for Hampstead and Highgate in last year’s general election, and now a councillor, she also taps into Reform’s strategy of hyper-localism – trying to get candidates to talk about local issues of crime, family, and law and order in the community above everything else.
Image: Catherine Becker believes Reform have widened their appeal by tapping into local issues
Jess Gill was your quintessential Labour voter: “I’m northern, I’m working class, I’m a woman, based on the current stereotype that would have been the party for me.”
But when Sir Keir Starmer knelt for Black Lives Matter, she said that was the end of her love affair with the party, and she switched.
“Women are fed up of men not being real men,” she says. “Starmer is a bit of a wimp, where Nigel Farage is a funny guy – he gives the same vibes as Trump in a way.”
Image: Jess Gill switched from Labour to Reform
‘Shy Reformers’
But most of Reform’s recruits seem to have defected from the Conservative Party, according to the data, and this is where the party sees real opportunity.
Anna McGovern was one of those defectors after the astonishing defeat of the Tories in the general election.
She thinks there may be “shy Reformers” – women who support the party but are unwilling to speak about it publicly.
“You don’t see many young women like myself who are publicly saying they support Reform,” she says.
“I think many people fear that if they publicly say they support Reform, what their friends might think about them. I’ve faced that before, where people have made assumptions of my beliefs because I’ve said I support Reform or more right-wing policies.”
Image: Anna McGovern defected to Reform from the Conservatives
But representation isn’t their entire strategy. Reform have pivoted to speaking about controversial topics – the sort they think the female voters they’re keen to attract may be particularly attuned to.
“Reform are speaking up for women on issues such as transgenderism, defining what a woman is,” McGovern says.
And since Reform’s original five MPs joined parliament, grooming gangs have been mentioned 159 times in the Commons – compared to the previous 13 years when it was mentioned 88 times, despite the scandal first coming to prominence back in 2011.
But the pitfall of that strategy is where it could risk alienating other communities. Pochin, Reform’s first and only female MP, used her first question in parliament to the prime minister to ask if he would ban the burka – something that isn’t Reform policy, but which she says was “punchy” to “get the attention to start the debate”.
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Reform UK MP pushes for burka ban
‘What politics is all about’
Alex Philips was the right-hand woman to Farage during the Brexit years. She’s still very close to senior officials in Reform and a party member, and tells me these issues present an opportunity.
“An issue in politics is a political opportunity and what democracy is for is actually putting a voice to a representation, to concerns of the public. That’s what politics is all about.”
Image: Alex Philips remains close to senior members of Reform UK
Luke Tryl is the executive director of the More In Common public opinion and polling firm, and says the shift since the local elections is targeted and effective.
Reform’s newer converts are much more likely to be female, as the party started to realise you can’t win a general election without getting the support of effectively half the electorate.
“When we speak to women, particularly older women in focus groups, there is a sense that women’s issues have been neglected by the traditional mainstream parties,” he says. “Particularly issues around women’s safety, and women’s concerns aren’t taken as seriously as they should be.
“If Reform could show it takes their concerns seriously, they may well consolidate their support.”
Image: Pollster Luke Tryl thinks Reform have become more targeted and effective
According to his focus groups, the party’s vote share among women aged 18 to 26 shot up in May – jumping from 12% to 21% after the local elections. But the gender divide in right-wing parties is still stark, Tryl says, and representation will remain an uphill battle for a party historically dogged by controversy and clashes.
A Reform UK spokesman told Sky News: “Reform is attracting support across all demographics.
“Our support with women has surged since the general election a year ago, in that time we have seen Sarah Pochin and Andrea Jenkyns elected in senior roles for the party.”