While many Labour MPs initially indicated they backed the bill in principle, support has ebbed away over recent months amid warnings about the impact the cuts could have on the most vulnerable people in society.
Around 119 Labour MPs have now signed a reasoned amendment to oppose the government’s proposals – which, if passed, would effectively kill the legislation.
But speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby from the NATO summit at the Hague, the prime minister said the welfare system needed reform and was “not working for anyone”.
He said the vote planned for Tuesday was not a confidence vote in his leadership but on the need to reform the system.
“I think most colleagues do accept the case for reform,” he said.
“We’ve got to get on and make that reform because the options are: leave the system as it is, trusting people and not helping them, that’s not a Labour option. The Labour option is to reform it and make it fit for the future. So we’re going to press ahead with these reforms.”
Image: Sir Keir Starmer made the comments on his way to a NATO summit in the Netherlands. Pic: AP
Welfare system ‘unsustainable’
Sir Keir spoke to reporters on the way to the summit about the reforms, saying there were around 1,000 people a day signing up for personal independence payment (PIP) – equivalent to the size of the population of Leicester.
“That is not a system that can be left unreformed, not least because it’s unsustainable, and therefore you won’t have a welfare system for those that need it in the future,” he added.
“So those that care about a future welfare system have to answer the question – how do you reform what you’ve got to make sure it’s sustainable for the future?'”
Introduced in March, the government’s welfare bill outlines proposals to make it harder for some disabled people to qualify for PIP while also cutting universal credit, another benefit.
What are the main changes in the welfare bill?
The most controversial elements of the government’s welfare bill are changes to PIP and Universal Credit.
PIP is money for people who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.
People who claim it – some of whom are in work – are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.
Under the plans, from November 2026, people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP – instead of fewer points across a broader range of tasks the person needs help with.
Currently, the standard rate is given if people score between eight and 11 points overall, while the enhanced rate applies from 12 points.
The changes do not affect the mobility component of PIP.
And from April next year, the health element of Universal Credit will be frozen in cash terms for existing claimants at £97 per week until 2029/2030.
For new claimants, the health element of Universal Credit will be reduced to £50 per week.
However, ministers point to the fact that the Universal Credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30.
Overall, 3.2 million families are expected to lose an average of £1,720 by the end of 2030 due to the changes.
However, the government has stressed that these figures do not take into account the £1bn that is being put towards helping the long-term sick and disabled back into work.
It is these changes that have caused the most anxiety among MPs.
As one Labour MP told Sky News: “If the thrust of the policy is getting people into work, how does cutting support for people in work, work?
“The thrust of the proposals is right but cutting PIP and Universal Credit isn’t about getting people back into work, it’s about saving money.”
The reasoned amendment calls on the government to delay the proposals pending an assessment of the impact of the PIP cuts.
It also cites concern about the government’s own figures which show 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the changes and the lack of a formal consultation with disabled people.
One Labour rebel told Sky News there was a “broad sense of unease across all levels of the parliamentary party”.
“Almost everyone thinks there needs to be reform and there are a lot of good things in the bill, but elements need more thought and explanation if they are going to proceed,” they said.
“Unless those issues are revised, or much better explained and justified, I don’t think there is enough support for the measures. People are really worried there is a rush to do this and that we might sleepwalk into this as we have done with other issues.”
On Tuesday, Downing Street suggested the vote would still go ahead despite the concerns of some MPs – including influential chairs of parliamentary select committees.
Asked whether the government was confident it could pass the legislation, a Number 10 spokesman told reporters: “We are focused on delivering last week’s bill and engaging, talking to colleagues, as to why this reform is so important.”
Pressed on whether the vote was happening next week, they added: “I would never get ahead of parliamentary business. It’s scheduled for next week. We are committed to reforming welfare.”
And they’re off! Bridget Phillipson was first away in her two-horse race with Lucy Powell in the Labour deputy leadership stakes.
Facing a rival who was sacked from the government nine days earlier, the education secretary said the deputy leader should be a cabinet minister, as Angela Rayner was.
Launching her campaign at The Fire Station, a trendy music and entertainment venue in Sunderland, she also vowed to turn up the heat on Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
She also repeatedly called for party unity, at a time when Labour MPs are growing increasingly mutinous over Sir Keir Starmer’s dealings with sacked Washington ambassador Lord Mandelson.
Despite Ms Phillipson winning 175 nominations from Labour MPs to Ms Powell’s 117, bookmakers StarSports this weekend made Ms Powell 4/6 favourite with Ms Phillipson at 5/4.
But though the new deputy leader will not be deputy prime minister, a title that’s gone to David Lammy, Ms Phillipson praised the way Ms Rayner combined the two roles and rejected suggestions that as a cabinet minister she would be a part-time deputy leader.
“What can be achieved under a deputy leader with a seat at cabinet, just look at Angela Rayner,” Ms Phillipson told her enthusiastic supporters.
“Angela knew the importance of the role she had. There was nothing part-time about her deputy leadership.
“Last year I campaigned up and down the country to get Labour candidates elected – I’ve not stopped as education secretary – and I won’t stop as deputy leader.
“Because with local elections, and with elections in Wales and Scotland right around the corner, that role is going to be more important than ever.
“So that’s why, today, I pledge to continue Angela Rayner’s campaigning role as deputy leader.
“Continuing her mission to give members a strong voice at the cabinet table.
“Her ruthless focus on getting our candidates elected and re-elected, alongside her total determination to drive change from government. Because what mattered was not just what she believed, but that she could act on it.”
Ms Phillipson pledged to run a campaign of “hope, not grievance” and claimed the party descending into division would put the chances of children and families benefiting from Labour policies at risk.
But admitting Sir Keir Starmer’s government had made mistakes, she appealed to party members: “You can use this contest to look backward, to pass judgement on what has happened in the last year, or you can use it to shape positively what happens in the run-up to the next election.
“Back me so I can unite our party, deliver the change we want to see and beat Reform. Back me so together, we can deliver that second term of Labour government.”
Image: Phillipson with Labour supporters at her campaign launch on Sunday. Pic: PA
Starmer’s candidate vs Manchester mayor’s
As she did in a speech at the TUC conference last week, Ms Phillipson spoke about her upbringing “from a tough street of council houses in the North East all the way to the cabinet”.
At the TUC, she said she grew up – “just me and my mam” – and told how when she was nine, a man who’d burgled the house turned up at the front door with a baseball bat and threatened her mother.
Ms Powell, who enjoys the powerful backing of Labour’s ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham, called this weekend for a change in culture in 10 Downing Street, with better decisions and fewer unforced errors.
His backing has led to the deputy contest being seen as a battle between Sir Keir’s candidate, Ms Phillipson, and that of the Greater Manchester mayor, seen increasingly as a leadership rival to the prime minister.
And like all the best horse races, with the betting currently so tight, when the result is declared on 25 October the result could be a photo-finish.
Appointing Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US was “worth the risk”, a minister has told Sky News.
Peter Kyle said the government put the Labour peer forward for the Washington role, despite knowing he had a “strong relationship” with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
It is this relationship that led to Peter Mandelson being fired on Thursday by the prime minister.
Image: Lord Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein. File pic
But explaining the decision to appoint Lord Mandelson, Business Secretary Mr Kyle said: “The risk of appointing [him] knowing what was already public was worth the risk.
“Now, of course, we’ve seen the emails which were not published at the time, were not public and not even known about. And that has changed this situation.”
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, he rejected the suggestion that Lord Mandelson was appointed to Washington before security checks were completed.
More on Peter Mandelson
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He explained there was a two-stage vetting process for Lord Mandelson before he took on the ambassador role.
The first was done by the Cabinet Office, while the second was a “political process where there were political conversations done in Number 10 about all the other aspects of an appointment”, he said.
This is an apparent reference to Sir Keir Starmer asking follow-up questions based on the information provided by the vetting.
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‘We knew it was a strong relationship’
These are believed to have included why Lord Mandelson continued contact with Epstein after he was convicted and why he was reported to have stayed in one of the paedophile financier’s homes while he was in prison.
Mr Kyle said: “Both of these things turned up information that was already public, and a decision was made based on Peter’s singular talents in this area, that the risk of appointing knowing what was already public was worth the risk.”
Mr Kyle also pointed to some of the government’s achievements under Lord Mandelson, such as the UK becoming the first country to sign a trade deal with the US, and President Donald Trump’s state visit next week.
Mr Kyle also admitted that the government knew that Lord Mandelson and Epstein had “a strong relationship”.
“We knew that there were risks involved,” he concluded.
PM had only ‘extracts of emails’ ahead of defence of Mandelson at PMQs – as Tories accuse him of ‘lying’
Speaking to Sky News, Kyle also sought to clarify the timeline of what Sir Keir Starmer knew about Lord Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein, and when he found this out.
Allegations about Lord Mandelson began to emerge in the newspapers on Tuesday, while more serious allegations – that the Labour peer had suggested Epstein’s first conviction for sexual offences was wrongful and should be challenged – were sent to the Foreign Office on the same day by Bloomberg, which was seeking a response from the government.
But the following day, Sir Keir went into the House of Commons and publicly backed Britain’s man in Washington, giving him his full confidence. Only the next morning – on Thursday – did the PM then sack Lord Mandelson, a decision Downing Street has insisted was made based on “new information”.
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Vetting ‘is very thorough’
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Kyle said: “Number 10 had what was publicly available on Tuesday, which was extracts of emails which were not in context, and they weren’t the full email.
“Immediately upon having being alerted to extracts of emails, the Foreign Office contacted Peter Mandelson and asked for his account of the emails and asked for them to be put into context and for his response. That response did not come before PMQs [on Wednesday].
“Then after PMQs, the full emails were released by Bloomberg in the evening.
“By the first thing the next morning when the prime minister had time to read the emails in full, having had them in full and reading them almost immediately of having them – Peter was withdrawn as ambassador.”
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Government deeming Mandelson to be ‘worth the risk’ is unlikely to calm Labour MPs
The Conservatives have claimed Sir Keir is lying about what he knew, with Laura Trott telling Sky News there are “grave questions about the prime minister’s judgement”.
The shadow education secretary called for “transparency”, and told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “We need to understand what was known and when.”
Image: Laura Trott says there are ‘grave questions about the prime minister’s judgement’
They believe that Sir Keir was in possession of the full emails on Tuesday, because the Foreign Office passed these to Number 10. This is despite the PM backing Mandelson the following day.
Ms Trott explained: “We are calling for transparency because, if what we have outlined is correct, then the prime minister did lie and that is an extremely, extremely serious thing to have happened.”
She added: “This was a prime minister who stood on the steps of Downing Street and said that he was going to restore political integrity and look where we are now. We’ve had two senior resignations in the space of the number of weeks.
“The prime minister’s authority is completely shot.”
But Ms Trott refused to be drawn on whether she thinks Sir Keir should resign, only stating that he is “a rudderless, a weak prime minister whose authority is shot at a time we can least afford it as a country”.
If you want to know why so many Labour MPs are seething over the government’s response to the Mandelson saga, look no further than my mobile phone at 9.12am this Sunday.
At the top of the screen is a news notification about an interview with the family of a victim of the notorious paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, saying his close friend Peter Mandelson should “never have been made” US ambassador.
Directly below that, a Sky News notification on the business secretary’s interview, explaining that the appointment of Lord Mandelson to the job was judged to be “worth the risk” at the time.
Peter Kyle went on to praise Lord Mandelson’s “outstanding” and “singular” talents and the benefits that he could bring to the US-UK relationship.
While perhaps surprisingly candid in nature about the decision-making process that goes on in government, this interview is unlikely to calm concerns within Labour.
Quite the opposite.
More on Peter Kyle
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For many in the party, this is a wholly different debate to a simple cost-benefit calculation of potential political harm.
As one long-time party figure put it to my colleague Sam Coates: “I don’t care about Number Ten or what this means for Keir or any of that as much as I care that this culture of turning a blind eye to horrendous behaviour is endemic at the top of society and Peter Kyle has literally just come out and said it out loud.
“He was too talented and the special relationship too fraught for his misdeeds to matter enough. It’s just disgusting.”
There are two problems for Downing Street here.
The first is that you now have a government which – after being elected on the promise to restore high standards – appears to be admitting that previous indiscretions can be overlooked if the cause is important enough.
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Government deeming Mandelson to be ‘worth the risk’ is unlikely to calm Labour MPs
Package that up with other scandals that have resulted in departures – Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq, Angela Rayner – and you start to get a stink that becomes hard to shift.
The second is that it once again demonstrates an apparent lack of ability in government to see around corners and deal with political and policy crises, before they start knocking lumps out of the Prime Minister.
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Sir Keir Starmer is facing questions over the appointment and subsequent sacking of Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US.
Remember, for many the cardinal sin here was not necessarily the original appointment of Mandelson (while eyebrows were raised at the time, there was nowhere near the scale of outrage we’ve had in the last week with many career diplomats even agreeing the with logic of the choice) but the fact that Sir Keir Starmer walked into PMQs and gave the ambassador his full-throated backing when it was becoming clear to many around Westminster that he simply wouldn’t be able to stay in post.
The explanation from Downing Street is essentially that a process was playing out, and you shouldn’t sack an ambassador based on a media enquiry alone.
But good process doesn’t always align with good politics.
Something this barrister-turned-politician may now be finding out the hard way.