While many Labour MPs initially indicated they backed the bill in principle, support has ebbed away over recent months amid warnings about the impact the cuts could have on the most vulnerable people in society.
Around 119 Labour MPs have now signed a reasoned amendment to oppose the government’s proposals – which, if passed, would effectively kill the legislation.
But speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby from the NATO summit at the Hague, the prime minister said the welfare system needed reform and was “not working for anyone”.
He said the vote planned for Tuesday was not a confidence vote in his leadership but on the need to reform the system.
“I think most colleagues do accept the case for reform,” he said.
“We’ve got to get on and make that reform because the options are: leave the system as it is, trusting people and not helping them, that’s not a Labour option. The Labour option is to reform it and make it fit for the future. So we’re going to press ahead with these reforms.”
Image: Sir Keir Starmer made the comments on his way to a NATO summit in the Netherlands. Pic: AP
Welfare system ‘unsustainable’
Sir Keir spoke to reporters on the way to the summit about the reforms, saying there were around 1,000 people a day signing up for personal independence payment (PIP) – equivalent to the size of the population of Leicester.
“That is not a system that can be left unreformed, not least because it’s unsustainable, and therefore you won’t have a welfare system for those that need it in the future,” he added.
“So those that care about a future welfare system have to answer the question – how do you reform what you’ve got to make sure it’s sustainable for the future?'”
Introduced in March, the government’s welfare bill outlines proposals to make it harder for some disabled people to qualify for PIP while also cutting universal credit, another benefit.
What are the main changes in the welfare bill?
The most controversial elements of the government’s welfare bill are changes to PIP and Universal Credit.
PIP is money for people who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.
People who claim it – some of whom are in work – are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.
Under the plans, from November 2026, people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP – instead of fewer points across a broader range of tasks the person needs help with.
Currently, the standard rate is given if people score between eight and 11 points overall, while the enhanced rate applies from 12 points.
The changes do not affect the mobility component of PIP.
And from April next year, the health element of Universal Credit will be frozen in cash terms for existing claimants at £97 per week until 2029/2030.
For new claimants, the health element of Universal Credit will be reduced to £50 per week.
However, ministers point to the fact that the Universal Credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30.
Overall, 3.2 million families are expected to lose an average of £1,720 by the end of 2030 due to the changes.
However, the government has stressed that these figures do not take into account the £1bn that is being put towards helping the long-term sick and disabled back into work.
It is these changes that have caused the most anxiety among MPs.
As one Labour MP told Sky News: “If the thrust of the policy is getting people into work, how does cutting support for people in work, work?
“The thrust of the proposals is right but cutting PIP and Universal Credit isn’t about getting people back into work, it’s about saving money.”
The reasoned amendment calls on the government to delay the proposals pending an assessment of the impact of the PIP cuts.
It also cites concern about the government’s own figures which show 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the changes and the lack of a formal consultation with disabled people.
One Labour rebel told Sky News there was a “broad sense of unease across all levels of the parliamentary party”.
“Almost everyone thinks there needs to be reform and there are a lot of good things in the bill, but elements need more thought and explanation if they are going to proceed,” they said.
“Unless those issues are revised, or much better explained and justified, I don’t think there is enough support for the measures. People are really worried there is a rush to do this and that we might sleepwalk into this as we have done with other issues.”
On Tuesday, Downing Street suggested the vote would still go ahead despite the concerns of some MPs – including influential chairs of parliamentary select committees.
Asked whether the government was confident it could pass the legislation, a Number 10 spokesman told reporters: “We are focused on delivering last week’s bill and engaging, talking to colleagues, as to why this reform is so important.”
Pressed on whether the vote was happening next week, they added: “I would never get ahead of parliamentary business. It’s scheduled for next week. We are committed to reforming welfare.”
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The UK will buy at least 12 F-35 stealth jets that can carry nuclear warheads in the most significant strengthening of its nuclear capability in a generation, the government has said.
Today, Sir Keir Starmer will tell a summit of NATO allies in The Hague that the new squadron will join an alliance mission that can be armed with US nuclear weapons.
The dramatic move will doubtless draw condemnation and concern from Russia and China.
But it comes at a time of growing global insecurity – and as the prime minister and his European and Canadian counterparts scramble to convince Donald Trump they are serious about bolstering their ability to defend Europe, instead of overly relying on the United States.
The US president, a long-standing NATO sceptic, raised questions about whether he would uphold the alliance’s founding Article 5 principle – that an attack on one is an attack on all – before he even arrived in the Dutch city last night.
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‘There’s numerous definitions of Article 5’
An urgent need to keep Mr Trump on side has prompted NATO allies to agree to increase spending on defence and national resilience to a new target of 5% of GDP by 2035.
As part of this push to rearm, Sir Keir will give the Royal Air Force the ability to carry airborne nuclear warheads for the first time since the 1990s.
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“In an era of radical uncertainty we can no longer take peace for granted,” he said.
“These F-35 dual capable aircraft will herald a new era for our world-leading Royal Air Force and deter hostile threats that threaten the UK and our allies.
“The UK’s commitment to NATO is unquestionable, as is the alliance’s contribution to keeping the UK safe and secure, but we must all step up to protect the Euro-Atlantic area for generations to come.”
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What is NATO’s 5% defence spending goal?
It was not immediately clear when the F-35 jets would be bought or how much they will cost, but the new squadron will be part of a NATO-led nuclear deterrence mission.
That is in contrast to the UK’s national nuclear deterrence, based on a fleet of four nuclear-armed submarines, though they too are used to defend the whole of the alliance.
Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, applauded the plan – saying: “The UK has declared its nuclear deterrent to NATO for many decades, and I strongly welcome today’s announcement that the UK will now also join NATO’s nuclear mission and procure the F-35A.
“This is yet another robust British contribution to NATO.”
Image: Sir Keir watches a demonstration by troops as he visits the Netherlands marines training base. Pic: AP
Aircraft operated by a small number of NATO countries, including Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, are cleared to carry US-provided nuclear weapons in a war.
The RAF and the Royal Navy already operate F-35B jets that can fly off Britain’s two aircraft carriers, but they are not equipped to drop nuclear warheads.
The new planes will be the F-35A variant, operated by the air force, that take off from land but can fly further and be armed with nuclear or conventional weapons.
The government said they would all be based together at RAF Marham in Norfolk.
The government has long planned to purchase a total of 138 F-35 aircraft, but has so far only acquired around three dozen – seven years since the first jets entered service.
The decision to purchase 12 of the A-variant does not mean extra aircraft.
It just means a diversification in the fleet – something the RAF has long been pushing for – though it’s a decision some in the Royal Navy have long pushed back against, believing it would reduce even further the number of the B-version that operate from their carriers.