Why hastily declared ceasefires tend to be fragile

Published

3 weeks ago

June 24, 2025

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Ceasefires that are suddenly declared tend to be pretty fragile.

Stable ceasefires usually require a lot of preparation so that everyone on both sides knows what is supposed to happen, and – more importantly – when.

And they normally agree on how it will be monitored so one side cannot seize a quick advantage by breaking it suddenly.

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Without such preparations, and sometimes even with them, ceasefires will tend to be breached – perhaps by accident, perhaps because one side does not exercise full control over its own forces, perhaps as a result of false alarms, or even because a third party – a guerrilla group or a militia, say – choose that moment to launch an attack of their own.

The important question is whether a ceasefire breach is just random and unfortunate, or else deliberate and systemic – where someone is actively trying to break it.

Either way, ceasefires have to be politically reinforced all the time if they are to hold.

All sides may need to rededicate themselves to it at regular intervals, mainly because, as genuine enemies, they won’t trust each other and will remain naturally suspicious at every twitch and utterance from the other side.

This is where an external power like the United States plays a critical part.

If enemies like Israel and Iran naturally distrust each other and need little incentive to “hit back” in some way at every provocation, it will take US pressure to make them abide by a ceasefire that may be breaking down.

Appeals to good nature are hardly relevant in this respect. An external arbiter has to make the continuance of a ceasefire a matter of hard national interest to both sides.

And that often requires as much bullying as persuasion. It may be true that “blessed are the peacemakers”.

World

Tomorrowland: ‘Devastating’ blaze destroys main stage at major festival – two days before it was due to begin

Published

29 mins ago

July 17, 2025

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Tomorrowland: 'Devastating' blaze destroys main stage at major festival - two days before it was due to begin

A huge fire has destroyed the main stage of a major festival in Belgium – two days before it was due to begin.

Tomorrowland is a dance music event as big as Glastonbury – and David Guetta was due to perform.

Footage showed flames and thick plumes of black smoke engulfing the stage and spreading to nearby woodland on Wednesday.

The annual festival in the town of Boom, north of Brussels, is one of the biggest in Europe and attracts about 400,000 people over two consecutive weekends.

It is famous for its immersive and elaborate designs and attracts big names within dance music – including Guetta, best known for tracks When Love Takes Over and Titanium.

Dutch DJs Martin Garrix and Charlotte de Witte were also due to perform, along with the likes of Swedish House Mafia, Eric Prydz and Alok.

The festival’s website described the creative elements which went into the elaborate main stage.

The theme, described as Orbyz, was “set in a magical universe made entirely out of ice” and “full of mythical creatures”.

Organisers said no one was injured in the blaze but confirmed “our beloved main stage has been severely damaged”, adding they were “devastated”.

Spokesperson Debby Wilmsen added: “We received some truly terrible news today. A fire broke out on the Tomorrowland site … and our main stage was essentially destroyed there, which is truly awful.

“That’s a stage that took years to build, with so much love and passion. So I think a lot of people are devastated.”

Despite the fire, Tomorrowland organisers said they were still expecting 38,000 festivalgoers at DreamVille, the event’s campsite.

World

Why Israel is getting involved in Syria’s internal fighting

Published

9 hours ago

July 16, 2025

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Why Israel is getting involved in Syria's internal fighting

Israel has shown little respect for international borders since becoming the unrivalled military hegemon of the Middle East. Today that meant an Israeli airstrike on a government building in Damascus.

Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.

Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.

On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.

“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.

In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.

The Syrian armour was attacked as it entered the area around Sweida in the Druze heartland of southern Syria following factional fighting there.

The flare-up reportedly began with clashes between Bedouin and Druze groups that ended in scores killed.

The background to the escalation is complicated.

At least three Druze militia groups are divided in their loyalties to different religious leaders and differ over how they should respond to calls to assimilate into the new post-revolutionary Syria.

Israel is becoming more and more involved in Syria’s internecine war and says it will remain there indefinitely “to protect our communities and thwart any threat”.

Its critics say Israel is operating a policy of divide and rule in Syria, weakening the fledgling government and creating a buffer zone to protect the border with the Golan Heights – originally Syrian territory that it has occupied and annexed for almost half a century.

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has used airstrikes to destroy of much of Syria’s military capability weakening its ability to impose control on outlying regions. This makes it more not less likely Israel will have a volatile unstable state on its northern border.

America and European powers have chosen to normalise relations with the new government in Damascus and lift sanctions.

In contrast Israel has occupied its territory, bombed its military and today hit one of its government buildings in the capital with an airstrike.

Since its crushing military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, Israel has emerged as the unchallenged military power of the region.

There is however a limit to what blunt force can achieve alone. It requires diplomacy to achieve lasting gains and Israel’s repeated assaults on multiple neighbours combined with its relentless campaign in Gaza are winning it few friends in the region.

World

Israel attacks Syrian military HQ – and disrupts live TV broadcast

Published

9 hours ago

July 16, 2025

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Israel attacks Syrian military HQ - and disrupts live TV broadcast

Israeli airstrikes have targeted the Syrian military headquarters in Damascus amid renewed clashes in the country.

The gate of the Ministry of Defence in the Syrian capital was targeted by two warning missiles from an Israeli reconnaissance aircraft.

State-owned Elekhbariya TV said the Israeli strike had wounded two civilians, the Reuters news agency reported.

It came as Israeli airstrikes targeted security and army vehicles in the southern city of Sweida, where the Druze faith is one of the major religious groups – marking the third consecutive day Israel has struck Syrian forces.

The Israeli military confirmed it had “struck the entrance gate” in Damascus – and that it would be monitoring “actions being taken against Druze civilians in southern Syria”.

Why Israel is getting involved in Syria’s internal fighting

Dominic Waghorn

International affairs editor

@DominicWaghorn

Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.

Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.

On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.

“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.

In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.

Read the full analysis

Local media said Sweida and nearby villages were coming under heavy artillery and mortar fire on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

The clashes marked the collapse of a ceasefire between Syrian government forces and Druze armed groups, with Israel also warning it would increase its involvement.

Israel said it was acting to protect the Druze groups through its attacks on convoys of Syrian forces.

Syria blamed militias in Sweida for violating a ceasefire agreement which had only been reached on Tuesday.

A statement from its defence ministry said: “Military forces continue to respond to the source of fire inside the city of Sweida, while adhering to rules of engagement to protect residents, prevent harm, and ensure the safe return of those who left the city back to their homes.”

Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said the military will continue to strike Syrian forces until they withdraw and should “leave Druze alone”, according to local reports.