There is a critical question hanging over the events of the past few days.
Behind the chest-thumping from Donald Trump, and the bewilderment beyond at his statecraft-by-social-media, doubts have now reached fever pitch about the success of the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.
“We were assuming that the damage was going to be much more significant than this assessment is finding,” said one of three sources, speaking to NBC News.
“This assessment is already finding that these core pieces are still intact. That’s a bad sign for the overall programme.”
NBC News has spoken to three sources – all of whom say that the initial assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency has concluded that the US airstrikes were not as effective as Mr Trump claimed.
Similar leaks were made to The New York Times, The Washington Post and CNN.
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4:04
Why did Trump lash out at Iran and Israel?
Responding to the CNN leak, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community.”
She continued: “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme. Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000lb bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
In his address to the nation on Saturday night, Mr Trump had said: “I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
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3:34
Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has also dismissed the leaks, saying: “Based on everything we have seen – and I’ve seen it all – our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.
“Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target – and worked perfectly.”
“The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran, so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission.”
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3:03
Iran’s nuclear capabilities
Battle Damage Assessments (BDAs) take a long time to be close to conclusive and require extensive intelligence analysis.
Speaking to Sky News, former director of the CIA and top US General David Petraeus cautioned about drawing any conclusions at this stage.
“Well, the truth is, it is just too soon. And those who are leaking should know that it takes a long time to do the battle damage assessment. And those who have actually pushed back in very conclusive ways also probably should have wait for the full results,” Gen Petraeus said.
“This is a very painstaking process. It’s an effort by the overall intelligence community, not just Defence Intelligence Agency. In fact, the CIA would be the lead in this effort to mine all sources of intelligence, imagery, intelligence of all types, signals, cyber, even open-source intelligence.”
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2:29
Trump’s ‘ripping up the rule book’
Beyond the debate over the extent of the damage, questions remain over whether Iran might have managed to move equipment including centrifuges. Critically too, the whereabouts of about 400kg of highly enriched uranium is unknown.
The classified assessment of the military’s operation in Iran has been transmitted to Congress and has been viewed by some senators in a secure location, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation.
“I’ve reviewed the classified material,” Democratic Party Senator Tim Kaine, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said.
“I’m a little bit disappointed that my colleagues went and looked at it and mainly started talking about it publicly. That’s not we’re supposed to do with a classified report,” he added.
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7:58
Iran ‘not at all’ thankful for Trump
Speaking on Sunday to NBC’s Meet The Press, Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon insisted Iran’s nuclear capability had been dramatically set back.
“I think it’s still very early to jump into conclusions. We have to wait for the assessment. I can tell you one thing for sure. If you look where Iran was 12 days ago and where they are today, you understand that both Israel and the US were able to degrade the capabilities, push them back decades, and if we had an imminent threat, it doesn’t exist anymore.”
It was an event organisers had hoped, perhaps optimistically, would be civil. Then comes a shout: “Shut the f**k up!”
In a busy room at Colorado State University, where Charlie Kirk had been scheduled to speak before his assassination, the crowd is riled, loudly heckling the speaker, Steven Bonnell, a left-wing streamer better known as Destiny.
It’s rowdy, gladiatorial and, in some ways, childish. A man in a Donald Trump shirt and a MAGA hat addresses Mr Bonnell: “You’re a fascist! You’re a degenerate!”
“I don’t want to get killed,” the streamer tells me after the debate.
“I’m out here at these events. And I wish that everybody could take a step back and realise that not every single issue that we fight over is the end of the f*****g world.”
This is where Kirk had been due to speak on the next stop on the tour that ended with his assassination in Utah.
A 21-year-old student has said she now carries a handgun because she’s a conservative. A young man says he came here from Florida because he didn’t feel safe.
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Another man, clearly quite drunk, points out a transgender person in the crowd and says they shouldn’t be allowed firearms. He receives a loud chorus of boos and cheers.
Across the road, in the football stadium, there had been a vigil. Amid a heavy police presence, more than 7,000 gathered to pay their respects, most of them wearing MAGA hats.
It was as much a rally or a recruitment drive for Kirk’s organisation, Turning Point USA, with speakers promising to set up thousands of new chapters around Colorado. I’ve come here to understand the movement he created, how he built it – and what it looks like without him.
“His political ideology is abhorrent, but I think he’s a very effective organiser,” Bonnell says. “And yeah, I’ll give credit where credit is due. He built a very impressive movement in an area that was considered unwinnable by conservatives.”
Image: Steven Bonnell, a left wing streamer better known as Destiny
‘The world of Charlie Kirk’
Kirk grew up in Arlington Heights, a suburb of Chicago, Illinois. Here, another smaller-scale vigil has been set up, organised by Sofia Volpe. She is 18 years old and came across Kirk on social media.
She says: “My family is conservative. I hold those values myself, but it was really nice to hear somebody younger speaking on this.
“I went to Wheeling High School, where Charlie went, and I joined the Turning Point chapter there. So that also kind of brought me into the world of Charlie Kirk.”
I ask her if she gets any backlash for supporting Kirk.
“People say that I’m horrible, that I’m racist, that I’m homophobic, that I’m transphobic, just all the phobics and I don’t identify myself with any of that. I think that I am a very loving and open person to anybody because people are people.”
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At another vigil, in another Chicago suburb, Miguel Melgar acknowledges not everyone saw Kirk that way.
“I don’t personally think that Charlie had hatred in his heart. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t accept the fact that he did make what could be perceived as some insensitive statements,” he says.
“And I think that especially if you do take certain statements and really only look at them in a vacuum, it could very well be perceived as statements that might have proliferated some type of a culture of a lack of acceptance.”
‘Kirk has become a martyr’
Kirk used social media to spread his message, to win over young minds, but he also built a formidable political organisation, Turning Point USA (TPUSA), to advocate for conservative politics on high school, college, and university campuses: boots on the ground to mobilise the likes online.
Mr Melgar helped him create it. He says TPUSA started as a moderate, bipartisan organisation and only became explicitly conservative after a $100,000 donation from a Republican politician.
“I think that there are plenty of opportunists that will want to see this as a Franz Ferdinand assassination type of event in the culture war… who will want to take any and every opportunity to use this to continue to drive division and to see this as an opportunity to create World War III,” he said.
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2:08
Sky’s James Matthews and Tom Cheshire reflect on a frenetic 10 days since Kirk’s assassination
The vigil we meet at is outside TPUSA’s first office, and others have also come to pay their respects. For many, it was Kirk’s faith – and his evangelism – that was most important.
And that’s how to understand his critics, an attendee named Marlene says, when I ask if she sees where they are coming from.
“I certainly do, it’s from the dark side…they don’t understand it and they’re threatened. Satan is always threatened.”
I ask about Kirk’s well-documented views on gay marriage (he opposed it) and Islam (which he wrote was “not compatible with Western civilisation”).
“There is right and wrong,” she says. “And sometimes it’s hard for people to hear that.”
Image: A vigil held for Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated earlier this month
As I leave, Mr Melgar joins hands in prayer with Marlene and her friend Anna.
Mr Melgar told me he would be going to another vigil later, so we tag along. It’s organised by Matthew Monfore, a young volunteer with Turning Point USA. And for him, Kirk’s fusion of religion and politics is what made him such an inspiration.
“Charlie Kirk has become really a martyr not just for Americans but I think for these nationalist movements across the world,” he said.
“And so when you do take a Christian foundation of Western civilisation, and that’s shipped around the world, and Islam, which is basically antithetical to that in numerous ways, and then also besides Islam, the gay marriage aspect of it, we believe that, according to Christian values, marriage is between one man, one woman, and that’s natural and right and given to us by God.”
Image: The vigil in Colorado
This is an explicit Christian nationalism, a term Mr Monfore is happy with – a faith that seeks not merely to inform politics, but to refashion it with Christianity at its centre, with other faiths and non-traditional beliefs relegated.
He is particularly incensed by the online reaction to Kirk’s murder, some of which certainly celebrated his death. I point out that Kirk himself called for President Joe Biden to be put on trial “and/or executed”.
He continued: “That is a good observation. And so I would actually defend that as free speech, because we do believe that Biden is a traitor to our country. And I know that people on the left think that Trump’s Hitler. So I really think that both you and I are in a conundrum here, that both people view each other as evil.”
Does Mr Monfore think the other side is evil?
He replies: “The left embraces ideology that’s antithetical to morality… So I think that the left embraces evil.”
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3:29
Donald Trump hailed Charlie Kirk a ‘hero’
‘I’m not going to send thoughts and prayers’
If the left has a spiritual home, it may be the University of California, Berkley. Two young Republicans, Martin Bertao and Miguel Muniz, are ploughing a relatively lonely furrow, pitching a tent with a sign that says “Change My Mind” – a tactic popularised by Kirk.
On their desk is a cap emblazoned with the logo of ICE, the US immigration authority that has been carrying out a crackdown, and another with Trump 2028, a reference to a third presidential term currently forbidden by the US Constitution.
Mr Bertao says it’s “rage bait” but also admits: “If they somehow repealed the Constitution and he won the primary, sure I’ll vote for him.
“We just try to spread the good word of conservatism, spread the amazing job that Donald Trump’s doing for our country.”
How does that tend to go down, I ask.
“Yeah, so, I don’t want to say unsafe, but sometimes people spit at us, sometimes people will yell at us,” Mr Muniz says.
Image: Martin Bertao and Miguel Muniz at the University of California, Berkley
A student called James passes by. He tells me: “I’m not excited about (Kirk’s death), but you know I’m not going to mourn someone who was actively rooting for my death as a trans person.
“So it’s not like I’m going to feel bad about it or send thoughts and prayers because if it were me, he’d be so happy.”
Kirk said in 2023 that “the transgender thing happening in America” is a “throbbing middle finger to God” and called trans athlete Lea Thomas “an abomination to God”.
“Speakers like him had, and like how, you know, his talks about transgender ideology, that changed a lot of how people treated me at my own high school,” James says.
Kirk also started a database called Professor Watchlist, dedicated to “unmasking” radical professors.
Image: Republican Miguel Muniz claims he has been spat on since the death of Charlie Kirk
Grace Lavery, an associate professor of English at Berkeley, was put on that list. She says she has changed her public office hours as a result.
“The part that feels more dangerous to me is that the conspicuousness and the sharing of that kind of information is then drawn on by people who are far more dangerous,” she says.
“There’s a significant population of far-right militants in the broader northern Californian scene. And those people are dangerous.”
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1:23
Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika vows to continue his mission
But although she describes Kirk as “an absolutely loathsome figure”, she doesn’t condemn him alone.
“We find ourselves in this polarity whereby we are so disgusted at the conduct of the people we understand as our enemy that we point out every time they do something vulgar,” she says.
“And then the moment that it falls to us to do something equally vulgar and disgusting, we do so anyway, and then blame the other side because they started it.
“And it is that form of split thinking which makes hypocrites of all of us, including me.”
‘I hope there’s a chance we can meet in the middle’
In Glendale, Arizona, people have spent the night camping outside the State Farm Stadium, “a bit of a party” according to one of them, to make sure they get a seat for the official memorial for Charlie Kirk.
The 63,000 stadium is quickly filled, and the overflow is directed towards another 20,000 seater not far away. Christian rock blares loudly, and when the speakers take to the stage, the entire crowd holds up the Turning Point USA signs placed on their seats.
Kirk’s movement isn’t going anywhere. In fact, it’s growing.
Image: Thousands gather to remember right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk
Callie, 18, Shaye, 27, and Britney, 32 and carrying her one-year-old son, drove 10 hours from California to be here.
“But it was worth it, and I’m so glad to be here,” Callie says. “It’s just powerful to be in the midst of all these people and be gathered together.”
“I wouldn’t have realised how much of an impact that Charlie Kirk’s organisation has had on the country and on the world until he was gone,” Shaye says.
What she says next brings her to tears: “And it’s so sad that that had to happen. But I know that God really does give beauty for ashes. I’m so grateful to Jesus Christ because I know Charlie Kirk’s gone on Earth, but he lives in heaven with Jesus Christ. And I’m so happy to be here to honour his legacy and his life.”
I ask whether they feel the US can come together with this memorial – or whether it will remain ever more divided.
“We have to be hopeful that there’s a chance that we can come in the middle. I think we felt hurt by how they treated the situation because we all lost somebody,” Britney says.
“We’re definitely praying that we can get together and meet.”
Image: Matthew Monfore, a young volunteer with Turning Point USA
‘Fight, fight fight!’
If Kirk built his power on the smartphone screen, this memorial is the jumbotron version of his politics: a mix of entertainment, religion and politics on a bombastic scale.
And on display are two interpretations, two visions, of his Christian nationalism, vengeance and forgiveness, Old Testament and New.
Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff and one of the speakers, labels the left “wicked”.
“You are nothing. You produce nothing,” he says.
The President of the United States says: “I hate my enemies and I do not wish them well.”
But Erika Kirk, Charlie’s widow, is responsible for the most arresting moment of the memorial. Citing Jesus’s example on the cross, she addresses her husband’s murderer: “I forgive you.”
Afterwards, I catch up with Matthew Monfore, the Christian nationalist I met at the vigil in Illinois. He’d driven 26 hours to make it to Arizona, and he preferred the less tolerant message.
“We view the left as very irrational. The term was used by Stephen Miller and people on the cabinet. The term wicked came about that to deny these basic truths and being taught that you should be ashamed for standing otherwise came out today.
“The President of the United States spoke. He, along with people in his cabinet, essentially spoke to using the ‘fight’ word.
A gunman who murdered four people in a New York office building before taking his own life had CTE, a degenerative brain disease which has been linked to playing American football.
The 27-year-old, who played high school football, had “unambiguous diagnostic evidence” of low-stage CTE, or chronic traumatic encephalopathy, the New York City medical examiner said.
In a three-page note discovered by police after the mass shooting, Tamura made repeated references to CTE.
Image: Shane Tamura. Pic: AP
In his note, which was written on notepad paper and using a variety of ink, Tamura wrote “CTE study my brain please. I’m sorry.” And again: “Please study brain for CTE. I’m sorry.”
He also specifically refers to Terry Long, a former NFL player who starred for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Long was diagnosed with CTE after drinking antifreeze to take his own life 20 years ago. CTE can only be diagnosed after death via post mortem.
In a statement, the NFL said: “We continue to grieve the senseless loss of lives, and our hearts remain with the victims’ families and our dedicated employees.
“There is no justification for the horrific acts that took place. As the medical examiner notes ‘the science around this condition continues to evolve, and the physical and mental manifestations of CTE remain under study’.”
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3:19
July: New York shooter’s note: ‘CTE study my brain please’
We looked at the case of former high school football player Noah Green. He was 25 when he crashed into a security cordon protecting the capitol building in Washington DC and stabbed police officer William Evans to death, before he too was shot dead by responding police.
Green’s mother, Mazie, told me she believes his crime was caused by brain injuries sustained on the American football field. He also had CTE.
The theory of a link between CTE and violent crime is increasingly cited in the courtroom.
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1:58
At least four dead in New York shooting
Kellen Winslow, a former NFL player, argued for his sentence for multiple rapes to be reduced because of head trauma suffered on the football field.
Former San Francisco 49ers star Phillip Adams shocked the country when he shot dead six people, including grandparents and their two grandchildren, then himself in 2021. He had severe CTE.
Elon Musk’s name has appeared in files relating to Jeffrey Epstein, with a reference made to the world’s richest man potentially visiting the paedophile’s island.
The Duke of York is also named as a passenger on the sex offender’s private jet in documents released by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee in the US.
They show Musk as a potential visitor to Epstein‘s island, Little St James, on 6 December 2014 – six years after Epstein became a listed sex offender.
His name appears on what appears to be Epstein’s daily schedule, with the entry reading: “Reminder: Elon Musk to island Dec.6 (is this still happening?)”
Image: Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: New York State Sex Offender Registry via AP
In June, Musk claimed Donald Trump appeared in files relating to the disgraced financier and alleged his administration was concealing information about the US president’s association with Epstein.
He gave no evidence for the claim, which he made on X, and later appeared to have deleted the posts.
Sky News has approached Musk for comment.
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0:47
Watch: Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein together in 1992
Prince Andrew named as passenger on Epstein jet
The documents also show Prince Andrew as a listed passenger on a flight on Epstein’s jet from Teterboro, New Jersey, to Palm Beach, Florida, on 12 May 2000.
He is named alongside Epstein, his then-girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who is now a convicted sex trafficker, and two names that have been redacted.
Details of the duke travelling on Epstein’s jet have previously been heard in court in Maxwell’s trial. One of her accusers, who was 14 at the time, recalled she had travelled on a flight with Andrew.
The duke strenuously denies any wrongdoing.
In addition to Musk and the duke, the records also show he was in contact with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, PayPal founder Peter Thiel and Steve Bannon, who was Mr Trump’s chief strategist during his first term.
Image: A passenger manifest for a flight involving Jeffrey Epstein and Maxwell, and Prince Andrew. Pic: Oversight Dems
Image: New documents from Epstein’s estate. Pic: Oversight Dems
Image: Pic: Oversight Dems
Image: Pic: Oversight Dems
The names of victims in the records are redacted and the committee said it plans to release more files once they are redacted as well.
Duchess of York dropped by charities over Epstein email
The release comes days after an email surfaced from Sarah, Duchess of York, to Epstein, in which she apologised to him for disowning him in the media.
In the letter, the duchess, Prince Andrew’s ex-wife, called the sex offender a “supreme friend”.
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1:45
Duchess of York explains message to Epstein
Her spokesperson said the message was written because he had threatened to sue her for defamation.
Earlier this month, Peter Mandelson, the British ambassador to the US, was sacked by Sir Keir Starmerafter it was discovered he had also sent messages to Epstein, calling him “my best pal”, after he was jailed awaiting sex trafficking charges.
Epstein was found dead in his cell at a federal jail in Manhattan in August 2019 while he was awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges. The death was ruled a suicide.