There is a critical question hanging over the events of the past few days.
Behind the chest-thumping from Donald Trump, and the bewilderment beyond at his statecraft-by-social-media, doubts have now reached fever pitch about the success of the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.
“We were assuming that the damage was going to be much more significant than this assessment is finding,” said one of three sources, speaking to NBC News.
“This assessment is already finding that these core pieces are still intact. That’s a bad sign for the overall programme.”
NBC News has spoken to three sources – all of whom say that the initial assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency has concluded that the US airstrikes were not as effective as Mr Trump claimed.
Similar leaks were made to The New York Times, The Washington Post and CNN.
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4:04
Why did Trump lash out at Iran and Israel?
Responding to the CNN leak, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community.”
She continued: “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme. Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000lb bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
In his address to the nation on Saturday night, Mr Trump had said: “I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
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3:34
Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has also dismissed the leaks, saying: “Based on everything we have seen – and I’ve seen it all – our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.
“Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target – and worked perfectly.”
“The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran, so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission.”
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3:03
Iran’s nuclear capabilities
Battle Damage Assessments (BDAs) take a long time to be close to conclusive and require extensive intelligence analysis.
Speaking to Sky News, former director of the CIA and top US General David Petraeus cautioned about drawing any conclusions at this stage.
“Well, the truth is, it is just too soon. And those who are leaking should know that it takes a long time to do the battle damage assessment. And those who have actually pushed back in very conclusive ways also probably should have wait for the full results,” Gen Petraeus said.
“This is a very painstaking process. It’s an effort by the overall intelligence community, not just Defence Intelligence Agency. In fact, the CIA would be the lead in this effort to mine all sources of intelligence, imagery, intelligence of all types, signals, cyber, even open-source intelligence.”
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2:29
Trump’s ‘ripping up the rule book’
Beyond the debate over the extent of the damage, questions remain over whether Iran might have managed to move equipment including centrifuges. Critically too, the whereabouts of about 400kg of highly enriched uranium is unknown.
The classified assessment of the military’s operation in Iran has been transmitted to Congress and has been viewed by some senators in a secure location, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation.
“I’ve reviewed the classified material,” Democratic Party Senator Tim Kaine, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said.
“I’m a little bit disappointed that my colleagues went and looked at it and mainly started talking about it publicly. That’s not we’re supposed to do with a classified report,” he added.
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7:58
Iran ‘not at all’ thankful for Trump
Speaking on Sunday to NBC’s Meet The Press, Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon insisted Iran’s nuclear capability had been dramatically set back.
“I think it’s still very early to jump into conclusions. We have to wait for the assessment. I can tell you one thing for sure. If you look where Iran was 12 days ago and where they are today, you understand that both Israel and the US were able to degrade the capabilities, push them back decades, and if we had an imminent threat, it doesn’t exist anymore.”
There are no plans for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to meet in person in the near future, according to a White House official.
The US leader later shed further light on the issue when asked why his planned summit in Hungary had been put on hold.
He said he did not want to have a wasted meeting, telling reporters in the Oval Office he had not made a determination about the talks he had wanted to hold.
The US leader suggested it was possible it could happen within a fortnight, though no date was set.
However, it appears that’s now off the table – and there are fears the meeting could be shelved altogether due to Russia‘s rigid stance on the Ukraine war.
The White House official, speaking to Sky’s US partner network NBC, said secretary of state Marco Rubio and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov had spoken on Tuesday.
The call was described as “productive” but the official added there was no plan for the presidents to meet “in the immediate future”.
The last Trump-Putin meeting was in Alaska in August, but it ended without any meaningful progress towards a ceasefire.
The Budapest plan was announced shortly before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Washington last Friday to try to get approval for long-range Tomahawk missiles.
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3:42
Why Tomahawks are off the table
Mr Zelenskyy accused the Russian leader of acting out of fear Ukraine could get the green light and the ability to hit targets far deeper into Russia.
In his nightly address on Tuesday, he said Russia “almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy” after it became clear Mr Trump had backed away from any decision on the Tomahawks.
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45:28
Professor Michael Clarke answers your questions on the Ukraine war.
Two US officials told Reuters that plans for the Budapest meeting had stalled over Russia’s insistence any peace deal must give it control of all of the Donbas region.
Those terms are said to have been reiterated over the weekend in a private communique known as a “no paper”.
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Ukraine and European nations issued a joint statement on Tuesday insisting “international borders must not be changed by force” and accusing Russia of “stalling tactics”.
But, in an apparent effort to keep the US leader onside, it added: “We strongly support President Trump’s position that the fighting should stop immediately, and that the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.”
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1:59
Trump: ‘We can end this war quickly’
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave the impression his country was in no rush to arrange another Trump-Putin meeting, saying on Tuesday “preparation is needed, serious preparation”.
Such talk is likely to increase concerns Russia does not want to stop fighting and is “playing” President Trump – all while continuing to launch drone barrages at Ukrainian cities.
Russia currently holds about a fifth of Ukraine after its invasion in February in 2022. It also annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
Meanwhile, NATO’s secretary general Mark Rutte is travelling to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday.
He will “discuss various aspects related to NATO’s support to Ukraine and to the US-led efforts towards lasting peace”, an official for the alliance said.
With Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s meeting in Budapest “on hold” for now, US correspondents Martha Kelner and Mark Stone unpick the US president’s latest position on the war in Ukraine.
Martha also chats to Huffington Post journalist SV Dáte about his run-in with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
As shows of diplomatic power go, this was a pretty good one. Here, in an industrial complex in the south of Israel that is rapidly being repurposed into a joint operations centre, America is taking centre stage.
A group walks in. At the centre is US Vice President JD Vance, flanked by omni-envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s unofficial emissary to the Middle East and official son-in-law.
And as if to prove just how much heft there is on show, the fourth person to walk in is Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the US’s Central Command, in charge of a bewildering number of troops and the most powerful foreign military leader in the Middle East. But in this company, he barely said a word.
Image: JD Vance. Pic: Reuters
Mr Vance was composed, enthusiastic and conciliatory. During our drive down to the complex, near the town of Kirya Gat, we had read the latest statement from Donald Trump, released on the social media platform that he owns, threatening swingeing repercussions against Hamas. “FAST, FURIOUS AND BRUTAL,” he had written.
So often the echo of the president’s words, Mr Vance struck a more nuanced tone. Yes, he said that Hamas could end up being “obliterated”, but he also offered the group some support. Since the ceasefire was signed, Hamas has repeatedly said that it cannot easily recover the bodies of all the dead hostages. Mr Vance agrees.
“This is difficult. This is not going to happen overnight,” he said. “Some of these hostages are buried under thousands of pounds of rubble. Some of the hostages, nobody even knows where they are.”
He said it would have been unwise to set a deadline, insisting “we’ve got to be a little bit flexible” and even accused Israel, along with Gulf Arab states, of “a certain amount of impatience with Hamas”.
Image: (L-R) JD Vance, US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. Pic: Reuters
I asked him if his visit was as a direct result of Israel’s actions on Sunday, responding to the deaths of two soldiers with attacks that killed dozens of Palestinians.
No, said Mr Vance, it had “nothing to do with events in the past 48 hours”. Many will remain dubious – this is his first visit to Israel as vice president, and, if the timing really was coincidental, it was very fortuitous.
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2:50
Ceasefire in fragile state
Then I asked him about the future of Gaza, about whether there really could be no safeguards that Palestinians would have a significant role in the future of the enclave.
I didn’t expect a long answer – and I certainly didn’t expect him to start by saying “I don’t know the answer to that question” – but that’s what we got.
“I think that what is so cool, what’s so amazing about what these guys have done, is that we’re creating a governance structure that is very flexible to what happens on the ground in the future. We need to reconstitute Gaza. We need to reconstruct Gaza,” he said.
“We need to make sure that both the Palestinians living in Gaza but also the Israelis are able to live in some measure of security and stability. We’re doing all of those things simultaneously. And then I think once we’ve got to a point where both the Gazans and our Israeli friends can have some measure of security, then we’ll worry about what the long-term governance of Gaza is.”
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0:29
Trump says ceasefire still in place
While the words are different, and the tone is less didactic, the theme is familiar. The short-term gain is peace, while the long-term plan remains largely unaddressed and unformulated.
Work is being done on that front. Diplomatic sources tell me that the effort behind the scenes is now frenetic and wide-ranging, encompassing countries from across the region, but also way beyond.
But the questions they face are towering – who pays, who sets the rules, who enforces law, whose soldiers are the peacekeepers and what happens to all the displaced Gazans?
None of this will be easy.
Mr Vance, like Mr Trump, exudes confidence, and it has clearly inspired other leaders and their nations.
Few can doubt that Mr Trump’s iron-clad self-confidence has given life and momentum to this deal.
But that isn’t enough.
The diplomats, planners and, yes, the politicians have a lot to do.