Starmer’s team ask Labour MPs to remove names from rebel amendment that could bring down welfare bill
Cabinet ministers have been asking Labour MPs to take their name off a rebel amendment to the government’s controversial welfare bill, Sky News can reveal.
In an attempt to quell the mounting rebellion of more than 100 MPs across all wings of the party, cabinet ministers were instructed to ring around the signatories of the amendment in a bid to get them to back the welfare cuts ahead of a planned vote next Tuesday.
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Two Labour MPs said they had been asked if they would take their names off the amendment, while one was asked if they would be prepared to abstain on the bill next week.
One Labour MP said: “‘The more they tell people to take their names off, the more names are added on.”
Others were also told their actions could provoke a fresh leadership challenge and that they were aligning themselves with Nigel Farage in a bid to get them to back down.
“I had a conversation with a senior cabinet member yesterday who basically said if the government is defeated next week it will trigger a leadership contest,” a Labour MP said.
“I can see how that might be the case but I would argue if that’s where we end up it’s because the government have allowed that to happen. The ball is very much in their court.
“By and large the rebels do not want this to be about leadership. We just want to government to listen.”
Another added that while they had not received a call from a cabinet minister, they knew “some colleagues are being told there will be a leadership challenge or a general election which is utter nonsense”, adding: “Everything is all over the place.”
The amendment, if passed, would effectively kill the government’s welfare reforms by failing to give it a second reading in the Commons.
It calls for a delay to the £5bn package to assess the impact of cuts to personal independence payments (PIP) and expresses concerns about the government’s own figures showing 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty – including 50,000 children.
The fact the amendment was tabled by Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury select committee, with the support of 12 other select committee chairs, has alarmed Downing Street – as has the sheer scale of the rebellion.
At least 123 Labour MPs have signed the public amendment, but Sky News understands more names are likely to appear in the coming days.
While Sir Keir Starmer and his deputy, Angela Rayner, have insisted the vote will go ahead next Tuesday, the decision to instruct cabinet ministers to call around colleagues suggests the government is concerned about potentially losing the vote.
‘The government is not listening’
A Labour MP who signed the amendment said most rebels wanted the government to pause the proposals pending a proper consultation.
They said the fact that the text of the bill had been published before the consultation had closed was proof the government was “not listening”.
Another MP said they had raised concerns that if constituents are moved from PIP to universal credit they could potentially exceed the benefits cap, which could disproportionally hit those living in cities where the cost of living is higher.
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“I can’t look at my constituents and say I’m confident this won’t negatively affect them,” they said.
The MP also criticised the government’s approach to keeping MPs on side, saying it had failed to make the case for reform consistently.
“The engagement stopped after the initial flurry of bad press. Now there is a small amount of activity before the vote. Ministers need to be out there; the PM needs to be out there.”
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Starmer faces welfare rebellion
Despite the growing rebellion, the prime minister has indicated he is not willing to offer concessions on the government’s welfare plans.
Asked by reporters at the NATO summit in the Netherlands if he was willing to make changes to the bill, Sir Keir said: “We have got to make the reforms to our system. It isn’t working as it is.
“It doesn’t work as it stands for people who desperately need help to get into work or for people who need protection. It is broken.
“We were elected in to change that which is broken, and that’s what we will do, and that’s why we will press ahead with reforms.”
Downing Street has been contacted for comment.
The Reform Party is on track to get the most seats if an election took place this year – with combined support for the Conservatives and Labour collapsing to less than half of the national vote, new in-depth polling suggests.
Analysts at YouGov have carried out their first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll since the last general election. The research is based on thousands of people, and links voters and characteristics to help with its projection.
It is not a forecast, but an estimate of what could happen. The next election is not set to happen until 2029.
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This is the first such piece of research published by YouGov since the last general election, and is more in-depth than standard polling where people are just asked who they want to vote for.
With a sample size of 11,500 people, it found that if a general election were to happen tomorrow, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would win 271 seats – the most of any party.
Labour would secure just 178 seats, less than half of the 411 it won last year.
The Tories would fall to fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, with just 46 Conservative MPs projected.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, would gain nine extra seats to build a Commons caucus of 81 MPs, while the SNP would once again be the largest party in Scotland.
Both the Greens and Plaid Cymru would gain three seats each to both hold seven slots in parliament.
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If this scenario were to materialise, it would mean a coalition government would be needed, as no one party would have a majority.
It is unclear what any such coalition would look like. If Reform and the Conservatives teamed up, they would only have 317 seats – short of the 325 needed.
Theresa May won 317 seats in 2017, and attempted to govern with the support of the Northern Irish DUP support.
YouGov said: “Reform’s meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country – including in Scotland.”
The two major political parties of the last century would between them have just 224 seats, fewer than Reform is set to take by itself.
Neither Starmer nor Badenoch fare well in the poll. Pics: PA
Possibility of rainbow coalition
Labour and the Conservatives would together have the support of just 41% of voters – down from 59% last year.
The report released by YouGov said: “That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”
It added: “According to our data and methods, 26% of voters would opt for Reform UK, 23% for Labour, 18% for the Conservatives, 15% the Liberal Democrats, 11% the Greens, 3% the SNP, 1% Plaid, and 2% for other parties and independent candidates.”
According to YouGov, Reform came out top of the polls in 99% of their simulations, with the rest having Labour at the top.
Some 97% of simulations had a hung parliament – where no one party has a majority – as the outcome.
In around 9% of simulations, Reform and the Conservatives have enough seats together to form a government, while in only “a tiny fraction” do Labour and the Lib Dems have enough together to govern.
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YouGov says “rainbow style coalition possibilities do appear”.
“For instance, combining the Labour, Liberal Democrat, and SNP totals produces a majority in just 3% of simulations.
“Adding the Greens brings this figure to 11%, while adding Plaid pushes it up to 26%.”
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