The EU’s defence commissioner has warned Europe must be capable of building a drone army in case Russia attacks.
Military intelligence has suggested Russian forces could be ready to strike a NATO country within the next five years.
In order to defend themselves, Andrius Kubilius says Europeans will require millions of drones and need to start preparing now.
“Russia can have around five million drones, so we need to have capacities bigger than those in order to prevail,” he told Sky News, warning that if President Putin ordered an attack, the target would face a “battle-tested” Russian army with the ability to use millions of drones”.
Image: Andrius Kubilius
The 2022 invasion of Ukraine sparked a revolution in drone warfare.
Facing one of the world’s strongest militaries, the Ukrainians used the cheap, adaptable technology to their advantage.
It estimates its drone units are now responsible for 80% of Russian frontline losses.
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Image: A Ukrainian fighter carries a drone near the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region. Pic: Reuters
Mr Kubilius has visited Ukraine to learn the lessons from the battlefield.
Along the 1200km (745 miles) front line is an area nicknamed “Death Valley”.
“Nothing can move. Everything is controlled by drones. A traditional tank in that zone survives six minutes,” he explained.
This year, Ukraine’s expected to produce more than four million drones.
Image: A Russian drone attacks a building during a massive drone strike on Kyiv, Ukraine, on 17 June. Pic: AP/Efrem Lukatsky
Contemplating how many units other countries would need, the commissioner used the example of his home country of Lithuania.
The former Soviet republic shares a border of around 900km (559 miles) with Russia and Belarus.
“If Ukrainians need four million for 1200km, we need something like three million drones for one year if the war is starting, if ‘Day X’ is coming,” he said.
To try to stay ahead in the fight, both Russia and Ukraine are constantly updating their drone technology.
For this reason, the commissioner believes that rather than stockpiling drones now, which will go out of date, Europe should instead build up teams of pilots, engineers, and producers ready to scale up production should the time come.
“On the European continent, at the moment, there are only two armies battle-tested with the ability to use millions of drones: one is Russian, which is planning new aggressions; another one is Ukrainian,” said Mr Kubilius.
“We need to learn a lot from Ukraine… how to organise defences against millions of drones, and also how to make your defence industry innovative,” he added.
It’s a point many in the business agree with.
Image: Siobhan Robbins with a STARK drone and a drone pilot
German start-up STARK has been testing loitering munitions or “attack drones” ready to supply to Kyiv.
“It’s all made for easy handling for soldiers, so you don’t have to use any tools on the front line, and you just plug in the rudders,” said STARK’s senior vice president, Josef Kranawetvogl, as he quickly clicked the unit’s tail together.
He spent 18 years in the German military before making the jump to weapons production.
He says staying ahead of the enemy requires tactics and technology to be frequently updated.
“Every day you have to adapt. You have such fast development cycles in Ukraine – two or three weeks, then there’s something new upcoming and you have to be prepared for this.”
Image: STARK’s senior VP Josef Kranawetvogl
Since the start of June, Russia has repeatedly used drone swarms to attack Ukraine.
It involves hundreds of drones hammering cities in one night.
I asked Josef whether he believes NATO’s European members are ready to defend against such an attack.
“I see quite a lot of European armies starting right now to develop or to purchase unmanned systems, and it’s a good development, but it’s all about time. How can we speed up?” he replied.
Image: The drone in action
Close to the border with France, another German start-up, Alpine Eagle, is testing defence drone units for Ukraine.
“This is our interceptor drone,” explained the company’s CEO, Jan-Hendrik Boelens, holding up a prototype which looks a bit like a small black plane. The interceptor is carried underneath a large grey drone.
On-board radar means it can be fired at enemy drones up to 5km (3 miles) away.
Jan thinks that could be a game changer in an aerial battle as it means hostile units could be picked off before they get close.
And he believes NATO is unprepared if one of its countries was to be hit by a wave of drones like those in Ukraine.
“We are absolutely not ready in my view,” he said.
Image: Alpine Eagle CEO Jan-Hendrik Boelens with Siobhan Robbins
He explained that Ukraine produced around 1.3 million drones a year last year.
“I would be surprised if NATO even bought a thousand drones last year. I think Germany procured, I don’t know, 100, maybe 200. So now you do the math on what that means and how quickly you run out of drones.
“If Ukraine consumed 1.3 million drones per year, that’s 3,000 a day. So, if you have 100 in your inventory, that would not last an hour.”
A spokesperson from the German Defence Ministry said the numbers stated “do not closely reflect reality”.
“Drones are now part of everyday life for soldiers, they are omnipresent and are used extensively in service operations and training,” they added.
Image: Two Alpine Eagle drones
Drones are a key part of NATO’s defence plan.
The alliance’s leadership has repeatedly said producing, procuring, and protecting against drones is a priority.
In addition to increasing training and development, NATO Chief Mark Rutte has said he wants more investment in drone technology as well as boosting air defences fivefold.
“We see Russia’s deadly terror from the skies over Ukraine every day, and we must be able to defend ourselves from such attacks,” he told an audience at the summit.
Image: NATO chief Mark Rutte
Lessons from Ukraine have prompted members to embrace unmanned technology in various ways.
Britain is one of the countries pledging to put drones front and centre of its new defence plan.
Earlier this month, the government’s Strategic Defence Review outlined a new way forward for British Army warfighting based around a drone-centric 20-40-40 strategy where uncrewed systems are deployed for first wave attacks, before tanks, attack helicopters and other manned platforms arrive on the battlefield.
In essence, the new weapons mix would be 20% traditional heavy platforms (like tanks), 40% single-use expendable drones and munitions, and the remaining 40% reusable, high-end drones.
It’s been confirmed that an extra £2bn will be spent on army drones this parliament.
Defence Secretary John Healey said Britain’s adversaries were working more in alliance and technology was changing how war was fought.
“Drones now kill more people than traditional artillery in the war in Ukraine and whoever gets new technology into the hands of their armed forces the quickest will win,” he said.
Image: Defence Secretary John Healey
This week, the prime minister announced a deal with Ukraine to co-produce drones.
Germany and Denmark have made similar agreements with the German Ministry of Defence, telling Sky News that drones are a top priority.
In a drone showroom in central Berlin, we meet Sven Weizenegger, head of the German military’s cyber innovation hub.
He said they have noticed a boom in pitches from potential suppliers.
Every day, his department receives up to 20 enquiries from companies asking how their products could be used by the military.
Image: A tank after being hit by a STARK drone on a testing field
He believes things need to move more quickly so soldiers get weapons faster.
“We are very advanced in the innovation process. That means we have a lot of ideas and many companies that are ready to deliver,” he explained. “Unfortunately, what we are not good at right now, due to our current processes, is getting these things into real operations, into frontline use. We need to fix that.”
Germany has promised to turbo-charge defence spending, with the Chancellor pledging to create the “strongest conventional army in Europe”.
Plans announced this week include boosting unmanned systems and air defences.
The German Ministry of Defence said it couldn’t reveal stock levels due to security, but a spokesperson confirmed the country is investing in a range of different units, including signing two contracts for attack drones.
“We are procuring not just a few but quite large quantities and testing them directly with the troops,” the spokesperson added.
However, they agreed with the EU defence commissioner that rather than stockpiling tech which would go out of date, it was better to have a system in place to allow for large quantities to be made quickly in the event of war.
In May, the EU approved a €150bn (£125bn) loan scheme to boost defence production across the bloc.
Israel will resume negotiations with Hamas for the release of all hostages captured during the October 7 attack, Benjamin Netanyahu has said – but its military will continue its Gaza City offensive despite international outcry.
Talks will also be with a view to ending the war, but Mr Netanyahusaid it must be on “terms acceptable to Israel”.
In the meantime, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have begun calling medics and international organisations in northern Gaza to encourage them to evacuate to the south ahead of the expanded operation in Gaza City.
Many of Israel’s closest allies have urged the government to reconsider. Some Israelis fear it could doom the remaining 20 or so living hostages taken by Hamas-led militants in the 7 October 2023 attack which ignited the war.
Speaking to soldiers near Israel’s border with Gaza, Mr Netanyahu said he was still set on approving plans for defeating Hamas and capturing Gaza City.
“At the same time I have issued instructions to begin immediate negotiations for the release of all our hostages and an end to the war on terms acceptable to Israel,” he said.
“These two things – defeating Hamas and releasing all our hostages – go hand in hand,” he added.
The latest ceasefire proposal drawn up by Egypt and Qatar is almost identical to an earlier one that Israel accepted before the talks stalled last month.
The proposal would include the release of some hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, a pullback of Israeli forces and negotiations over a lasting ceasefire.
Image: An Israeli strike on a tent camp in Deir Al-Balah. Pic: Reuters
‘Don’t tell us where to build’
Israeli strikes killed at least 36 Palestinians across Gaza on Thursday, according to local hospitals, including at a tent camp in Deir al-Balah.
Meanwhile, Israel’s ambassador to the UK, Tzipi Hotovely, was summoned to the Foreign Office in response to a controversial West Bank settlement plan which has been given final approval.
The project, known as the E1 settlement, would effectively cut off the occupied West Bank from East Jerusalem and divide the territory in two.
The UK and 21 international partners have released a statement to condemn the decision “in the strongest terms” calling it “a flagrant breach of international law” and “critically undermining a two-state solution”.
Ms Hotovely gave Sky News her response to the meeting: “I said we wouldn’t tell the British where to build in London. Don’t tell us where to build in Jerusalem, our capital. We see E1 as part of Greater Jerusalem.”
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11:50
What would a two-state solution look like?
UK warns of ‘horrifying starvation’
The UK has also responded to comments from the head of the UN Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA that famine in Gaza is “deliberate” and being used as an “instrument of war”.
Minister for the Middle East, Hamish Falconer, has called for a “comprehensive [peace] plan to end this misery and get to a long-term settlement”.
“Israel must immediately and permanently lift all barriers preventing aid reaching the people of Gaza to prevent the horrifying starvation in the Strip continuing,” he added.
The Media Freedom Coalition, which includes the UK and 50 other countries, has called on Israel to allow foreign media access into Gaza.
In a joint statement, the coalition, which is a partnership of countries working to defend media freedom, urged Israel to “allow immediate independent foreign media access” and “afford protection for journalists operating in Gaza”.
They said this was in light of the “unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza”.
Gaza City residents say Israel carried out intense overnight bombardments as it prepares a controversial offensive to take control of the area.
Sixty-thousand reservists are being called up after Benjamin Netanyahu‘s security cabinet approved the plan earlier this month.
UN chief Antonio Guterres has warned of more “death and destruction” if Israel tries to seize the city, while France’s Emmanuel Macron said it would be a “disaster” that would lead to “permanent war”.
Hundreds of thousands of people could end up being forcibly displaced – a potential war crime, according to the UN’s human rights office.
Gaza’s health ministry said at least 70 people had been killed in Israeli attacks in the past 24 hours, including eight people in a house in the Sabra suburb of Gaza City.
Israel currently controls about 75% of the Gaza Strip, but Prime Minister Netanyahu has said Israel must take Gaza City to “finish the job” and defeat Hamas.
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Mr Netanyahu and his ministers are due to meet on Thursday to discuss the plans, according to Israeli media.
Military spokesperson Effie Defrin said earlier that “preliminary operations and the first stages of the attack” had begun – with troops operating on the outskirts of Gaza City.
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0:32
Aftermath of fresh Israeli strikes on Gaza
Residents said shelling has intensified in the Sabra and Tuffah neighbourhoods and that those fleeing have gone to coastal shelters or to central and southern parts of the Strip.
The decision to stay or leave is an agonising choice for many.
“We are facing a bitter-bitter situation, to die at home or leave and die somewhere else, as long as this war continues, survival is uncertain,” said father of seven Rabah Abu Elias.
“In the news, they speak about a possible truce, on the ground, we only hear explosions and see deaths. To leave Gaza City or not isn’t an easy decision to make,”
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2:04
Sky’s Adam Parsons explains what is in the new Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal.
Most of the Israeli reservists being summoned are not expected to be in a frontline combat role and the call-up is set to take a while.
The window could give mediators more time to convince Israel to accept a temporary ceasefire.
Hamas has already agreed to the proposal – envisaging 10 living hostages and 18 bodies being released in return for a 60-day truce and the freedom of about 200 Palestinian prisoners.
Israel hasn’t officially responded, but insists it wants all 50 remaining hostages released at once. Only 20 of them are still believed to be alive.
The war started nearly two years ago when a Hamas terror attack killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped around 250.
More than 62,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
The figure doesn’t break down how many were Hamas members, but it says women and children make up more than half.
Two more people also died of starvation and malnutrition in the past 24 hours, the ministry said on Thursday, taking the total to 271, including 112 children.
COGAT, the body controlling aid into Gaza, said 250 aid trucks entered on Wednesday, with 154 pallets air-dropped.
Police, pathologists and grave diggers have started the exhumation of 27 shallow graves in Kenya’s Kilifi County.
The remains are believed to be of followers of a deadly cult in Chakama Ranch, a part of the Shakahola Forest.
In 2023, more than 400 mass graves were discovered in the same forest, all members of controversial preacher Paul Mackenzie’s church. They were encouraged to starve themselves to death to get into heaven.
It remains one of the world’s worst cult-related tragedies. Mackenzie is still in jail and faces numerous charges of terrorism, child torture and murder.
Image: Six bodies were exhumed in Chakama Ranch, a part of the Shakahola Forest, today
The remote forest has again been turned into a crime scene.
Morticians were seen carrying out body bag after body bag, some containing the remains of children believed to have been starved to death.
State pathologist Dr Richard Njoroge said this is just the beginning, as investigators expect to find many more bodies: “Today we managed to exhume six.
“Of the six graves, we found five bodies and then also around that area we found ten different scattered body parts, scattered in different places on the surface.”
Eleven suspects have already been arrested in connection with these deaths and will appear in court on Friday.
Police are investigating links to Mackenzie and members of his Good News International Church.
At the exhumation today, pathologists said they were still working to identify the bodies of those exhumed from Mackenzie’s cult.
“We had 453 at the closure of that exercise, I think, we released around 33 or 34 last time. So, from there are 419 remaining,” Dr Njoroge explained.
Police have encouraged families in the area with missing loved ones to come forward and provide their DNA samples, as efforts to identify the dead continue.
Kenya is grappling with a rise in religious extremism and many churches operating informally.
Parliament passed several preliminary bills aimed at regulating religious organisations last year, but implementation has stalled after resistance from church leaders.