
Final 2025 NHL draft rankings: Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, then…?
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Rachel DoerrieJun 24, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
NHL draft week is officially here, and with that come the final draft rankings.
The top 64 are ranked here, along with details of their game, areas for development, their perception among NHL scouts and an NHL projection. The final set of rankings includes combine scores and a heavier weight of scouting opinions and intel against my projection model. While some players grade at higher or lower value than in previous rankings, their position considers how likely they are to become NHL players based on their developmental needs and perception in the industry.
After Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa, there is almost no consensus in this draft. For example, some teams have players ranked in the 20s that others do not have on their draft list at all. Part of this is related to the fact that teams are valuing different attributes — be it skill, grit, size, playoff performance, etc. — and place higher value on players who fit their organizational mantra. More than in previous years, some players might fall in the draft because another player is higher on a specific team’s list. This could lead to teams trading up to grab players they believe have fallen too far to ignore.
The most important thing to remember is that a player’s success or failure is not dictated by his draft slot, but who he becomes in the years that follow. It is true that earlier draft picks get many more chances than late ones regardless of talent, but that doesn’t mean some gems won’t be found later in the draft. In fact, given the desire for size, truculence and hard skill over high-end talent, it is fair to suggest we might see more success from draft selections outside the first round than in previous years.
Here are the top 64 prospects, along with some players who deserve honorable mention:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
The Erie Otters defender is projected to become a true No. 1 cornerstone for years to come. A dynamic presence at both ends of the ice, the 6-foot-2 blueliner skates with ease and elite mobility to shut down opponents in all situations, while creating offense with quality transition play.
Though an injury at the IIHF World Junior Championships — where he was set to play a key role as a 17-year-old — cut his season to just 26 games, Schaefer still logged over 25 minutes per contest, and consistently drove play in his team’s favor.
Executives and scouts view him as a future elite NHL defenseman and a foundational piece for a championship-caliber roster. Schaefer’s ability to control play from the blue line, play tough matchups, and run a power play — combined with the belief in his character and leadership — result in many believing that Schaefer has the tools to become a top-10 defender in the league, while wearing a letter as part of a team’s leadership group.
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
Granted exceptional status in the OHL in 2022, Misa delivered one of the most remarkable goal-scoring seasons in recent memory in 2024-25, netting 62 goals in just 65 games. He projects to be a top-line forward capable of consistently exceeding 90 points per season in the NHL.
Misa’s offensive instincts are elite. He processes the game at a high level and executes at top speed. Scouts believe he is NHL-ready and has the potential to become an elite top-line center. Away from the puck, Misa excels at finding soft areas in coverage and has a flair for delivering in clutch moments. His combination of high-end playmaking and goal-scoring ability makes him a constant dual threat in the offensive zone.
His two-way game has taken a noticeable step forward with improved backchecking, defensive awareness and commitment to a 200-foot game. Paired with his explosive speed and offensive firepower, Misa profiles as a foundational player.
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
Hagens is projected to be a top-line center, or one of the NHL’s best second-line centers. He lacks the dynamism of Misa, opting for a highly cerebral and efficient play style. He brings a good work rate with excellent speed and passing ability that should see him effectively drive play at the NHL level. Scouts and executives are impressed with the professional details of his game (puck support, winning battles, defensive puck play), and they believe it will ease the transition to the NHL while he finds his offensive gear.
Another season at Boston College to further develop a more a dynamic offensive gear to become a top-line NHL center — the one that had scouts impressed during his NTDP season (with 102 points) — could be the remedy. After playing on one of college hockey’s top lines with Gabe Perreault (New York Rangers) and Ryan Leonard (Washington Capitals), Hagens would now be relied upon to drive his own line, create offense through his own playmaking and play a significant matchup role.
Hagens has the potential to be the complete package in the NHL. His understanding of spacing and ability to anticipate stands out among his peers. He’s smaller and slighter than other prospects, which worries some teams, but there’s a mix of Clayton Keller and Jack Hughes in him in terms of transition play and creativity.
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
A big, cerebral forward, Martone is a dual-threat offensive player with ability to score on his own and facilitate. He projects to be a second-line scoring winger who should see top power-play minutes.
His competitive nature will make him an effective agitator as he learns to physically impose himself on opponents. He needs to hone the competitiveness and physicality to increase its effectiveness, but he is exactly the type of player teams covet because of the unique combination of offensive talent and competitive fire.
Martone’s ability to score and make plays will make him a difficult player to defend in the NHL. There are concerns about Martone’s speed and skating posture. His speed has improved this season, but Martone needs to add explosiveness to his skating to hit his ceiling.
His unique combination of scoring ability, size and hard skill make him a very attractive prospect. While his most confident projection is as a top-six forward, Martone has a legitimate chance to become a top-line winger if his skating improves.
5. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
Frondell is a versatile two-way forward that plays both center and right wing. His flexibility is attractive to teams, although many believe he is most likely to reach his potential as a winger in the NHL.
Frondell is coming off one of the most productive seasons by an under-18 player in Allsvenskan history, giving him a confident projection as a first-line NHL forward. He’s a cerebral player, who picks apart defenders in one-on-one situations and defensive coverage in offensive zone play. The details of Frondell’s game are translatable, including excellent forechecking ability, willingness to attack the middle of the ice and high-end anticipation on both sides of the puck.
He has shown play-driving capabilities against men in the Allsvenskan, which has translated to the NHL for other prospects in the past. He’s projected to produce between 75-85 points per season. His style of play translates well and has executives excited about his ability to step in the league in the next 18 months.
He impressed during the physical testing and interview portions of the scouting combine, leaving many teams impressed. His two-way ability combined with great anticipation and a high-end shot make him one of the more exciting prospects in the class.
6. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
Described as “a unicorn” because he’s a 6-5 center who skates with the speed and mobility that you would expect from a smaller player, McQueen has been a hot topic all season.
He profiles as a prototypical modern-day power forward who blends soft skill with physicality. Elite right-handed centers are rare in the NHL, and McQueen’s size and willingness to physically dictate play adds undeniable value. He has professional defensive habits that are translatable to the NHL, and unique offensive upside that is still developing given the loss of playing time due to injury during his draft season.
McQueen dominates the cycle game, creates offense on the rush and uses his physical gifts to dominate the cycle and protect pucks. His projection as an elite top-line center lacks confidence, due to lack of playing time from his back injury. Without the injury, we might be discussing McQueen near the top of this draft class because his package of skating, skill and physical gifts are rare, and the type of toolbox of which executives dream.
He is a textbook case of high-risk, high-reward player; however, his performance at the scouting combine went along to proving his back injury had healed completely. Playing against tougher competition, where McQueen will be forced to develop his ability to protect himself, the puck control and ability to create offense against bigger bodies will be important. If developed without setback, he could become a two-way force in the NHL for years to come.
7. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
Desnoyers might go a lot higher than where I have him, because he could be one of the best two-way players in the draft. Described as a “coach’s dream” because of his ability to take an offensive or checking assignment and execute consistently. He makes smart, simple plays, provides a physical presence on the forecheck and generally agitates and makes life difficult on defenders.
He projects to be a quality second-line center with a decent chance of becoming a first-line player. He’s cerebral, with quick hands and playmaking ability. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistently effective and makes intelligent plays with the puck.
Executives love hearing the word “reliable” from scouts, and that word is perfect to describe Desnoyers. He’s at his best when he’s in pressure-packed games because he finds a way to make the necessary plays to win. Many scouts believe he will be a leader in the NHL, with solid play on both sides of the puck, in all situations.
As one scouting director described “he’s the type of player you win with.” Some have quietly compared him to Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews, who are lofty comparisons, to say the very least.
8. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
Smith is a big, physical defenseman with untapped offensive ability and is the consensus second-best defender in the draft class behind Schaefer.
He possesses all the qualities of a top-four matchup guy. He defends the rush well, closes gaps and steers the play in transition, making him one of the best neutral-zone, transition defenders in the class. Given the importance of transition defense in a matchup role, Smith has a real chance to the guy coaches rely upon to play heavy minutes against the best players.
His blend of skating, size and poise with an offensive game that progressed positively as the season wore on makes me a believer that there is more to give, and playing at Penn State next season should help it along.
Smith stands 6-3, and executives love the simplicity of his game, reading pressure, disrupting plays and making effective passes to exit the zone. He lacks explosive skating, and the consistent creativity required to be a quality offensive contributor at the NHL level, but his reads are there to be a plus transition player and join the rush as a support player.
Smith’s development from here will be about using his excellent mobility to prevent rush offense and becoming a more consistent offensive threat with better puck management. If Smith can drive play on both sides of the puck in transition and become a power-play threat, there’s a real chance he becomes a No. 2 defender at the NHL level.
9. Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
Deceptive and incredibly smooth, O’Brien projects to be a point-producing, top-six center with a chance to become a top-line center. The right-handed pivot is one of the best playmakers in the draft, creating high-danger chances with regularity; for my money, he is the best pure creator in the draft.
He consistently manipulates defenders, distributes the puck on the forehand and backhand and uses fakes that send turn defenders and goalies into pretzels. The development will come from simplifying offensive plays to eliminate turnovers caused by holding the puck for too long.
O’Brien’s shot is going to be a necessary development area if his passing is to be an elite threat in the NHL. There is risk here, because he’s slighter than other players available at the center position, but he has room to fill out over the next few years. O’Brien’s elite playmaking skills will be that much more valuable if he can add a speed gear and increase his shooting threat.
He’s two or three years away from playing an impactful role in the NHL, and patience could be the key to O’Brien reaching his top-line ceiling. If he does, he’s going to be an elite power-play quarterback and offensive driver.
10. Victor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
Eklund projects as a top-six forward with a good chance of becoming a top-line contributor. There’s a distinct possibility he falls out of the top 10 this week, which would mean extreme value for anyone who selects him. Despite concerns about his size — he’s 5-11, 161 pounds — Eklund’s style of play is very translatable to the NHL. He plays a lot bigger than his measurements suggest, and there is room to add strength. Should he grow, which has happened to other prospects in the past, Eklund’s projection becomes more confident as a 70-point producer with a high-end motor and excellent forechecking capability.
Eklund is excellent in transition and attacks defenders with speed and fearlessness, darting to the inside, and positioning his body to win or protect pucks. His smaller size has forced him to learn how to protect the puck with excellent body positioning. If he develops a bigger, stronger frame, those skills will make him even more difficult to defend in the offensive zone.
His off-puck play is mature, and will quickly earn the trust of NHL coaches. Eklund has the potential to be a difference-maker in a second-line role, and his blend of hard-nosed play with soft skill should translate more seamlessly than other players.
11. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
Bear is the type of player that a team looking for high-end instincts and playmaking covet. Before a season-ending injury in March, Bear was one of the CHL’s most dangerous offensive players and a reliable defensive forward. He’s versatile, in that he plays center and the wing, and projects as a 65- to 75-point, second-line player, most likely on the wing.
He’s a quality playmaker using different passes to create advantages in dangerous areas. His ability to manipulate defenders and create space for teammates while pulling coverage towards him should translate well in the NHL. He’s got good hands in tight spaces, which make him a threat around the net, and is one of the best offensive facilitators in the draft class.
On top of his offensive gifts, Bear’s defensive play makes him a quality two-way player. His stick positioning allows him to disrupt passes, and he’s a tenacious forechecker who tracks well on the backcheck and finishes hits. His skating posture needs to be more upright to allow him to develop a more explosive stride to take advantage of his offensive skills in transition, but the instincts and execution of plays already exist.
Bear is a good mix of soft and hard skill with projectable traits on both sides of the puck, and he is the type of player who should thrive in a matchup role while contributing offensively.
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
A 6-6, right-handed defenseman with decent mobility who plays in all situations has scouts very excited, and he could be the second defenseman drafted on Friday. He’s very difficult to get around, routinely thwarting attackers in their tracks and killing plays. He projects as a top-four, shutdown defenseman because of his excellent stick work, mobility and transition defense. Mrtka uses his mobility to escape pressure, activate in the rush and make quality passes to the middle of the ice.
Mrtka should develop into a strong transition defender, a reliable penalty killer and efficient puck mover. He shoots the puck hard and could become more of a scoring threat if he can pick his spots to get pucks through. While everything flowed through him in Seattle, there are well-placed concerns about his lack of offense.
His size and physicality give him the tools to develop into a minute-munching, shutdown defender if his mobility continues to progress. His late birthday gives him lots of development runway to refine his skating, offensive playmaking, and physicality in all areas of the ice.
13. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
A Swiss Army knife type of player who will be most effective on the wing because of his strong wall play, Martin projects as a middle-six forward capable of scoring 20 goals routinely, with upside as a second-line forward.
He’s a wrecking ball that will bring value in all three zones, on and off the puck. Martin has scouts raving about him after an excellent performance at the IIHF under-18 championship, with many opining that he could go very early in the first round. He’s a workhorse without an off switch, who brings a blend of physicality and hard skill. He’s a nightmare to contain with his brute strength, and forces defenders into precarious positions with good speed and willingness to make “winning” plays.
Martin finds ways to get involved physically if he doesn’t have his “A” game offensively, and executives love that. If Martin’s scoring doesn’t translate, he’ll be a valuable third-line pest.
Several teams mentioned how impressive Martin was during interviews at the combine. Combine an attractive personality with the hard-nosed style, and it forms a rare combination that is valuable to many scouts who believe he’s the type of player teams need to win in the playoffs. Surely, his mention of Conn Smythe winner Sam Bennett as a role model grabbed attention. He will likely be long gone by the early teens — but that does not devalue the players who will be selected after him.
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
Carbonneau possesses an offensive toolbox that teams covet, including powerful skating and eye-popping creativity. He projects as a second-line scoring forward with significant variance and is likely to end up as a middle-six player who thrives against secondary matchups. Carbonneau can drive offense with his playmaking and shooting ability and plays a well-rounded offensive game that includes playing through contact, excellent puckhandling skills and above-average skating.
As is the case with any player who possess incredible upside, there is inherent risk. He has a physically mature body (6-1, 191 pounds), and will need to adjust to the speed of the professional game. He thrives when given time and space, and his growth will come from learning to simplify his offensive play and make better decisions with the puck. There are tools to become a very effective power forward in the NHL who can score 25 goals if he adds a cerebral component to his game.
15. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
The 6-4 left winger has translatable scoring ability, and excellent speed for his size. With room to fill out his frame, Lakovic is an attractive prospect.
He attacks with linear crossovers using his big frame to protect the puck, and he makes plays using good deception. He has the potential to be a dual-threat winger at the NHL level if his passing translates the way many believe his shooting will. Lakovic projects to be a middle-six winger with fair confidence because of his scoring ability, speed and size, but there is a chance he becomes a second-line scoring threat.
Lakovic’s development will come on the physical side. While he is supremely skilled, he needs to lean on defenders and force his way to middle ice to take advantage of his quick hands and shot. If he does, he becomes a significantly more dangerous player, as he’ll be a threat in transition and off the cycle. That is certainly a developable skill that translates to any level, and combined with quality offensive instincts and skill, could see Lakovic become a dual-threat, 65-point winger.
16. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
The 6-2 defender projects to become a second-pair blueliner that excels in transition. He is one of the best neutral-zone defenders and puck movers in the draft, who steadily improved as a true freshman in the NCAA. His puck retrievals, breakout passes and offensive-zone passes consistently put his team in more advantageous attacking positions. Being a right-handed defender with excellent mobility and an easily translatable game makes Hensler a very attractive prospect in this class.
The are concerns among NHL scouts related to Hensler’s offensive abilities and how he might fare in the NHL. However, Hensler showed flashes in the back half of the NCAA season, drawing defenders in and making slick plays for high-danger scoring opportunities. He’s unlikely to become a 60-point defender, but 35-45 points as a steady transition defender who plays a shutdown role seems to be the appropriate projection.
His NHL-ready frame is a plus, and will only improve throughout his collegiate career, which is likely to be another two seasons.
17. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
Cootes is likely to be the first center taken in the back half of the first round and will be a target for teams looking for a two-way, high-motor center. He lacks explosive offense, but with some development of his shooting mechanics, he could become a 60-point, two-way center. Scouts love how consistently he moves his feet throughout his shifts, his drive to play through the middle of the ice and his ability to create advantages for himself with his skating and compete level.
His ability to create space for his teammates and move the puck to advantageous areas of the ice is highly translatable. He’s proactive with his contact, moves the puck to the middle of the ice and is reliable on both sides of the puck, in every area of the ice.
A strong skater and leader, his floor is likely a third-line checking center, but the potential for him to become a two-way, second-line center should be attractive to teams who are willing to bet on offensive development.
18. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
There’s a lot to love about Reid’s game — and a lot of varying opinions. Some scouts see him as a top-15 pick, others see him as a mid-20s pick, and it all hinges on their belief in his offensive game. Reid is a play driver from the back end with excellent puck-moving skills and excellent skating. He flashes high-end offensive ability in the form of setups and moving to find and create passing lanes to high-danger areas; however, his shot will need to become more of a threat to avoid his distribution being neutralized in the NHL.
In transition, he’s one of the best on both sides of the puck. His smooth puck retrievals — where he constantly shoulder checks and scans to avoid pressure — led to efficient breakouts. When under duress, he uses elite edgework to escape and shake pressure, following with a quick outlet pass to beat the forecheck.
The consensus belief is that he’s a middle-pairing, transition defender who can turn into a bona fide No. 3 if he develops his offense and grows an inch or two; currently he’s listed at 5-11.
19. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
There’s a very real chance that Aitcheson is drafted near the top 10 given the type of game he plays and the thirst among NHL teams for bite on the back end.
His projection as a No. 4/5 defender sees him below other players with higher upside. Aitcheson plays with all kinds of truculence and aggression, while possessing an aura of confidence on and off the puck. He’s got all the makings of being a complete menace who plays tough minutes as a No. 4 defender.
Whether it is a preseason game or the playoffs, Aitcheson plays the same rough style, and is unafraid of lowering the boom on opponents. He needs to pick his spots better to avoid unnecessary penalties, but he’s the type of player that requires opponents to be aware when he’s on the ice. Scouts see him as hard-nosed, two-way defender with significant bite who can be a momentum-shifter with his physical presence.
He needs development time, as his skating and playmaking are very raw, but the competitive attributes and his development curve this season are very promising. Aitcheson’s offensive involvement developed as the season progressed, rotating with his teammates, diving down towards the high-danger area and becoming more dangerous with open ice.
He’s likely two or three years away from being ready to step in. But when he does, he’s exactly the type of defender every coach and GM want on their team.
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
The two-way center brings an excellent mix of hockey sense, playmaking and creativity to be a middle-six contributor capable of consistently producing 60 points. He lacks elite skating, but his combine results raised eyebrows — tying Frondell for tops in VO2 max. While that isn’t indictive of NHL success, it shows a particular dedication to conditioning, and those in NHL circles pay attention to those results.
Reschny is smaller — 5-10, 183 pounds — and relies on his cerebral approach and excellent passing abilities to create advantage all over the ice. He processes the game better than many in the draft class, allowing him to manage pressure and put himself in better puck-protection positions.
Defensively, Reschny’s instincts result in positionally sound play, regularly playing above the puck, disrupting passes, and communicating assignment switches. He’s got the potential to be a great two-way complementary center that creates offense without separating speed. His reads will almost surely see him play a penalty-killing role and someone who is relied upon when his team is holding a lead.
21. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
Kindel is a scoring machine. Following a 60-point rookie campaign in the WHL in 2023-24, he vaulted into elite status this season, finishing seventh in overall scoring, and was excellent at even strength.
Though undersized at 5-10, 176 pounds, Kindel blends pace, vision and quality instincts, and he projects to be a middle-six winger with two-way ability. Kindel’s motor is relentless, which makes up for his lack of speed, and enables him to weave through traffic and execute give-and-go’s with ease. A dual-threat attacker, he pairs an accurate shot with dangerous passing ability. His elite hockey sense allows him to consistently outsmart opponents and set teammates up with creative plays in dangerous areas with time and space, while playing positionally sound hockey off the puck.
Defensively and on the forecheck, Kindel leverages his intelligence, anticipation and effort to win battles despite size disadvantages. He’ll need to refine and improve his skating posture and puck control, while adding another speed gear to succeed in the NHL.
While the potential exists for Kindel to a top-six NHL player, he is more likely to find himself in the middle-six as a complementary piece.
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
Potter is a dynamic skater who is the fastest straight-line skater in the draft class, and his explosive mobility ranks among the draft’s best. Making an uncommon jump from the NTDP’s under-17 team straight to NCAA play, Potter displayed elite acceleration and agility, effortlessly shifting from stride to crossover and cutting sharply through defenders. Initially reliant on raw skill, Potter often avoided physical battles and forced “hope plays,” limiting his effectiveness in the first half of the NCAA season.
Potter’s evolution in the second half of the season elevated his game dramatically, and it was impossible not to notice. He embraced defensive responsibilities, improved his physical play despite his 5-10 frame, won puck battles and filled lanes on the backcheck. Potter’s positional play improved, and his off-puck play improved as a result.
The added defensive dimension complements his offensive talents, elevating his floor to a bottom-six checker, while his upside is very high as a top-six forward because of his steep development curve. Development of his transition play and learning to use his explosive skating and accurate shot while changing gears will make him a more dangerous offensive threat.
23. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
Spence projects with confidence as a high-energy, two-way winger suited perfectly for a Stanley Cup contender’s third line. He possess a relentless motor, physical tenacity, and professional defensive habits. There are well-placed concerns that his game lacks a true dynamic offensive element, but the current form of his game easily translates to NHL, with a higher floor than other players in this area of the class.
At his best, Spence is a disruptive force, ferocious on the forecheck, relentless on the wall and defensively reliable. He thrives alongside skilled teammates, creating space through with his effort, and the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities in dangerous areas of the ice. Scouts like Spence’s game-changing impact, particularity his forechecking, success in puck battles and ability to draw penalties.
His offensive growth plateaued this season and has tempered expectations about his ceiling. His projection as a third-line winger with a bottom-six floor is related to that scoring plateau. If Spence can assert physical dominance, playmaking consistency and see an uptick in scoring, there is a chance he becomes a secondary contributor in the middle six. Regardless, Spence’s blend of competitiveness, professional details and defensive reliability makes him a solid bet to become a key commentary piece on a contender who likely excels as the game gets more physical.
24. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
Ravensbergen is the clear-cut top goaltender prospect in this draft. He projects a composed, confident demeanor, with a confident projection as a starting NHL goaltender who can handle a significant workload.
At 6-foot-5, he leverages size, elite anticipation and crisp lateral agility, consistently positioning himself perfectly to deny shooters without unnecessary flash. He tracks the puck a level above his peers, which allows him to confidently challenge shooters and cut angles effectively. He is particularly vulnerable through the five-hole, which isn’t atypical for large goalies who hover sticks above the ice. As he develops and refines his technique, this weakness should be corrected long before he reaches the NHL.
A reliable backstop for Prince George, Ravensbergen’s .901 save percentage stands out even more when considering the high-danger chances he regularly faced. His rebound control is well above average, and he has an above-average glove hand. He regularly has his blocker angled well, enabling him to direct shots safely away from danger.
It is likely that Ravensbergen becomes a platoon starter until his mid-20s, when he is capable of become a full-time NHL starter who plays 60-65 games per season.
25. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
Fiddler is one of the draft’s most intriguing defenders with his blend of size (6-4), mobility and untapped upside.
With NHL family history (Vernon Fiddler is his father), he performed well on the international stage, leaving scouts and executives believing that his defensive-zone dominance and transition skill will make the NHL transition easier. Fiddler’s defensive toolkit stands out. His mobility lends itself to tight gap control, balanced pivots and high-quality neutral-zone defense. Physically imposing, he consistently disrupts opposing attacks, maintains strong body positioning, and proactively eliminates threats away from the puck while staying positionally sound.
Defense is his clear calling card, but Fiddler flashes creativity on offense. He manipulates defenders with fakes, executes difficult breakout passes under pressure, and flashes high-end puck skills on occasion.
To reach his ceiling of a second-pairing defenseman, Fiddler will need to refine his reads, timing, and decision-making to limit miscues with the puck. He’ll likely require patience over the next few years, but with continued development in gap control, awareness and physical engagement, he profiles confidently as a reliable second-pair shutdown defender capable of driving play in transition.
26. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
Nesbitt is an intelligent, two-way center whose game is rooted in competitiveness, defensive reliability, and off-puck hockey IQ. He excels defensively by using his 6-4 frame to break up plays with physical engagement and smart stick positioning to pick off pucks. His hockey sense consistently places him in strong positions in all three zones, allowing him to create turnovers and execute quick passes to create dangerous chances off those turnovers.
His offensive upside hinges on his skating, which is a concern. His stiff skating stride and lack of demonstrated flexibility at the combine might limit how much he can improve. Despite flashes of skill, he struggles to maneuver past defenders, and his inconsistent puck handling under pressure often disrupts his playmaking.
Nesbitt showed improvement throughout the season, leveraging his size offensively and initiating more contact more consistently. If these improvements continue, and he’s able to improve his skating stride, he projects confidently as a dependable middle-six center who can anchor a defensive line and support skilled players higher up the lineup.
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
One of the most discussed and debated defenders in the draft, Boumedienne projects as a second-pair, two-way defender.
Already known as a brilliant breakout passer with a heavy slap shot and strong stick play, Boumedienne’s defensive game evolved noticeably at Boston University. Buoyed by steadily improving his skating weaknesses, particularly his agility and edge work, he looked the part of a modern shutdown defenseman, specifically in transition. He developed greater stability, enabling more effective gap control and quicker pivots. Proactive reads, strong positioning, physicality and effective disruption of passing lanes allowed his defensive game to blossom.
While his offensive game remains primarily rush-based rather than in the offensive zone, Boumedienne’s willingness to experiment with fakes and deception improved his transition impact significantly. The volatility of his projection remains high, but Boumedienne’s substantial in-season growth, defensive reliability and refined skating offer realistic upside as an effective second-pair, two-way defender at the NHL level who can produce secondary offense.
28. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
One of the most skilled and creative forwards in the draft, and some scouts have him ranked in the late teens because of their belief in his upside.
Lee is a dynamic offensive player who consistently cuts through defensive coverage with elite puckhandling and deceptive passes. His one-timer is one of the best in the draft class. With a full complement of high-end tools, Lee has a rare ability to create offense in tight quarters with limited space, and he stood out amongst his USHL peers. He manipulates defenders and delivers elite passes under pressure. He consistently makes translatable plays like one-touch breakouts, fake receptions, and quick releases in scoring areas. As the season progressed, he showed a willingness to forecheck, battle and apply pressure defensively.
The glaring question is his skating. His stride is stiff and lacks explosiveness. Lee will need major strides in mobility to maximize his offensive toolkit at the NHL level. That being said, if he adds a step or two to pair with his skill, Lee has the skill to become a creative, middle-six playmaker with top-six upside.
29. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Murtagh emerged as a versatile, energetic winger and cemented himself as the NTDP’s most compelling prospect in a down year.
He plays a relentless style and possesses an explosive stride, thriving in puck battles, consistently leveraging his straight-line speed and physicality to power through opponents and create scoring chances. He owns a strong shot package, including an explosive one-timer, and Murtagh is equally dangerous off the rush. Murtagh’s development as a playmaker elevated his stock in the eyes of scouts. He regularly demonstrated above-average awareness, impressive passing skill to get the puck to the most dangerous areas of the ice. His ability to complement scoring with high-level distribution should continue to develop at the NCAA level at Boston University.
To unlock a clear NHL middle-six ceiling, Murtagh must diversify his transition approach, use teammates more consistently and rely less exclusively on raw speed and power. Even without dynamic creativity, his tenacious style, goal-scoring instincts and improved playmaking project safely to a third-line NHL power forward role.
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
Zonnon is a relentless and detail-oriented two-way forward who has carved out a reputation as one of the CHL’s hardest-working players. With an 83-point breakout campaign in his first full-time season at center, Zonnon combined a high-end motor, raw but effective playmaking and relentless puck pursuit that allowed him to be a play driver in all three zones. He excels on the forecheck, pressuring defenders into rushed decisions, winning battles and moving pucks to teammates in scoring areas.
Offensively, he makes good reads under pressure, threading pucks through tight lanes and consistently puts his team in advantageous positions. His ability to support defensively, facilitate transitions and physically impose himself makes him ideal the type of forward teams want in the playoffs.
His skating remains a limiting factor, and he’ll need to improve his agility and posture to reach his offensive ceiling. If Zonnon can refine his stride and continue to develop his playmaking, he projects as a middle-six driver who blends tenacity and has the makings of a valuable third-liner whom playoff teams covet.
31. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
A steady riser as the season progressed, Vansaghi is a tenacious power winger whose physical dominance and competitive fire make him one of the most NHL-ready players in the draft. Many nights, he looked like a man among boys with excellent forechecking, delivering punishing checks to defenders who were retrieving pucks, and bulldozing through contact to establish inside position.
Offensively, Vansaghi showed flashes of legitimate upside, with good puckhandling, a heavy release that caught goaltenders by surprise, and the ability to beat defenders one-on-one. His net-front play and ability to win body position in tight areas shows that he might be an effective net-front player at the NHL level if he can deflect pucks and knock rebounds home.
His skating lacks explosiveness and agility, and will need significant revamp which might be tough given his physical maturity. If he can make improvements to his first few steps, Vansaghi could evolve into a middle-six force who complements skill with relentless physical play.
32. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Moore remains one of the more intriguing upside bets despite a plateau in development over two seasons with the NTDP.
The feeling among scouts is that Moore’s plateau is related to the structure the NTDP plays with, in that it stifles creativity, and I would agree with that assessment. Moore is a skilled forward with strong skating, good puck skill and offensive instincts. He has moments of absolute brilliance, manipulating defenders with crossovers, threading look-off passes and showcasing high-end puck protection.
At his best, Moore combines finesse with power, winning battles along the wall, creating screens and asserting body position to generate offense. It is a quality blend of hard and soft skill. He excels in possession and can command shifts with deceptive movement and slick hands in tight space. The lack of consistency in his play leads to questions about what type of player Moore can be at the NHL level.
A lack of physical strength and assertiveness without the puck lessens his impact more often than not, leading to quiet nights and “invisibility” monikers. If Moore can raise his engagement level and improve strength, there is real second-line potential at the next level. Otherwise, he projects as a versatile third-line forward who can contribute on a second power-play unit and provide complementary offense.
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamloops (WHL)
Behm is a dynamic winger with the skill to develop into a middle-six NHL scorer and an outside shot at becoming a second-line scorer. He combines creative playmaking, deceptive shooting, and above-average puck handling to generate offense. He beats defenders by manipulating them and using his reach to pull pucks through traffic. His soft hands allow him to catch pucks effortlessly and execute quick slot passes and shots.
He has an NHL-ready build, but he’ll need to improve pace and engage physically to reach his potential. If he can develop and refine those areas, he projects as a dual-threat offensive forward in a scoring role; without it, he settles into a bottom-six forward. As a player available late in the first round or in the second, he’s a worthwhile swing on upside.
34. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
The goal scorer is likely to go a lot lower than I have him, but his scoring ability is among the best in the draft class. He possesses elite finishing skill, high-end speed and above-average puck handling.
He scores in a variety of ways: off the rush, through traffic, and on one-timers. He’s difficult to read because he’s deceptive in his movements to find or create space. Despite his 5-7 frame, Schmidt adds a rare physical edge and flashes playmaking quality.
For obvious reasons, scouts and executives question whether or not he can be effective at the NHL level — the numbers suggest he has a legitimate shot if he grows to 5-9. He’s a boom-or-bust pick; if he rounds out his playmaking and utilizes his full offensive toolkit on a consistent basis, Schmidt could become a dynamic second-line scorer and one of the draft’s biggest steals.
35. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
Brzustewicz is the next prospect from the factory that is the London Knights. The blueliner projects as a steady, mobile transition defender with the potential to grow into a No. 4 or 5 NHL blueliner.
A right-handed shot with a strong defensive foundation, he maintains good gap control, moves the puck very well and supports plays while remaining positionally sound. In an elevated role, his offensive creativity developed dramatically. He jumped into the rush, evaded forecheckers and created scoring chances with quality passes to the slot.
If he continues to develop his confidence and play-driving ability, Brzustewicz could evolve into a reliable second-pairing defender. Without that growth, he still holds value as a depth puck mover with a good defensive foundation.
36. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Not unlike his teammates, McKinney likely had his offense stifled with the program, and there were signs that he has more to give. He projects as a competitive third-line center with above-average two-way play. The NTDP’s leading scorer — and one of the USHL’s most efficient producers — McKinney’s standout attributes include relentless puck pursuit, smart positioning and strong penalty-killing instincts.
Offensively, he thrives off the cycle, supports play with timely passes and quick decisions and is an above-average net-front presence. While his puck handling and shooting limit top six upside, some scouts believe there is more upside as a middle-six player. At a minimum, his motor, defensive value, and play-driving habits give him a clear path to a bottom-six NHL role.
37. Milton Gästrin, F, MoDo (J20 Nationell)
Gästrin is one of the most well-rounded and translatable two-way centers in the draft, projecting as a reliable third-line NHLer.
He combines high-end defensive instincts, strong off-puck support and a relentless motor to have many scouts believing he’ll be a reliable checking center. His playmaking continues to develop and might give him more offense than currently projected, but he’d likely top out between 30 and 40 points.
Gästrin is a reliable play driver, and coaches will be comfortable playing him in all three zones. While he lacks dynamic offensive upside, his intelligence, versatility, and steady skating development make him a low-risk bet to become an effective bottom-six center.
38. Václav Nestrašil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
Nestrašil is a high-upside power forward who projects as a top-six NHL winger if his development continues on its current path.
He is a unique blend of above average puck skill and playmaking with size, motor and punishing physical play. He excels with give-and-go’s, attacking off the wall, and creating space in traffic. He consistently moves the puck through carries or passes to the middle of the ice, creating more threatening opportunities.
He is raw and somewhat erratic with his reads and timing; his continued improvement and physical toolkit give him legitimate upside. If he becomes a more consistent threat, he’s a second-line force; if not, his defensive value and intensity still project a role as a physical, bottom-six winger.
39. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Amico is a 6-5 right-handed defenseman with the mobility, physicality and defensive instincts to grow into a No. 4/5 NHL blueliner. Injuries are a concern, but when healthy, he kills rushes with aggressive gap control, clears the crease with authority — a trait NHL scouts love — and starts breakouts with a good first pass.
Offensively, he shows flashes of playmaking, but limited reps and inconsistencies (partly due to a knee injury) leave questions about how high the ceiling is. If he stays healthy and continues to develop his transition game at Boston University, Amico has the tools to become a physical, play-driving defender with No. 4 upside.
40. Jacob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulua (J20 Nationell)
Ihs-Wozniak is a goal-scoring machine with one of the best finishing touches in the class. He possesses an arsenal of shot types that are NHL-caliber, has great off-puck instincts and a developing playmaking side. That combination of offensive skills gives him legitimate middle-six scoring upside. He times his movements for rebounds and slot chances very well, making him difficult to tie up. He’s not a play driver, but his frame, scoring touch and offensive instincts make him a good bet to be a complementary player.
To reach his ceiling, Ihs-Wozniak will need to improve his speed, which will improve his play in transition and his play along the wall. His potential as a power-play threat and goal scorer boost his NHL floor to a third-line player.
41. Eric Nilson, F, Djurgardens IF (J20 Nationell)
Nilson projects as a defensively reliable, bottom-six checking center with penalty-killing value. A fluid skater with a high motor and strong two-way instincts, he consistently supports play in all three zones, eliminates space on the backcheck, and was one of the top defensive forwards at Sweden’s J20 level.
Offensively, he can drive transition play and showed flashes of playmaking and a shot that could develop into a threat. Scouts question his willingness to drive the middle of the ice, given he’ll need to do that to be a two-way player at the NHL level. He’ll need to develop his playmaking and fill out physically to reach his potential. If he can develop those traits and combine them with his sound defensive play, he’ll likely carve out a bottom-six role in the NHL.
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
Kevan is a skilled and speedy winger who projects as a potential middle-six scoring threat if he rounds out his game. A dynamic skater with elite transition ability and flashy puck skill, Kevan creates off the rush with give-and-go’s and creative passes. He uses his speed defensively to pressure puck carriers on the backcheck.
Kevan needs to develop his offensive-zone play to be a more well-rounded offensive threat. If he adds strength and an element of physicality, Kevan could evolve into a two-way, play-driving winger. He’s an upside bet with his skill set, but likely ends up an AHL scorer if he can’t polish his offensive-zone play.
43. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Tolpar Ufa (MHL)
Zharovsky has some of the best hands in the draft class, without a doubt. He’s an elite puck handler with high-end creativity and offensive instincts that make him one of the most skilled European forwards in the draft.
After a slow start, he exploded for 46 points in 29 MHL games and held his own in KHL playoff action. Zharovsky manipulates defenders to create for both himself and teammates, showing dual-threat potential as a scorer and playmaker. His skating and defensive play need development, but his raw skill ceiling is undeniable.
He is a boom-or-bust winger, but his performance at the KHL level is an indicator that he’s likely to be successful in the NHL. With proper development, he could become a middle-six scorer and power-play threat in the NHL.
44. Max Pšenička, D, Portland (WHL)
One of the biggest risers in the back half of the season, Pšenička projects as a two-way, shutdown defenseman with the tools to become a reliable No. 4/5 at the NHL level. He brings good speed, physicality and smart defensive reads, consistently forcing dump-ins and battling for position. Offensively, he shows flashes of creativity on breakouts and rush activation, and development in puck control and passing precision will only boost his offensive projection.
His aggressive play and competitiveness make him a playoff-type defender. At 6-4 and 176 pounds, there is more than enough room to fill out his frame, which is likely to make him a strong net-front presence in the NHL. If he continues to develop his offensive game and adds strength, Pšenička has the upside to become a reliable second-pair defender with some grit.
45. Kurban Limatov, D, MHK Dynamo Moskva (MHL)
Limatov is a high-upside, boom-or-bust defenseman with second-pair NHL potential. He possesses elite mobility and physical tools, and at 6-3, his explosive skating allows him to evade forecheckers and drive play in transition.
As the season progressed, his defensive reads improved and allowed him to play with more physicality and aggressiveness. Offensively, Limatov is raw and somewhat chaotic, but there are signs of creativity. If he continues to improve his decision-making, he could become a dynamic two-way defender. If not, he might remain a high-minute KHL player, but the NHL upside makes him an intriguing player in the second round.
46. William Horcoff, F, University of Michigan (NCAA)
The son of former NHLer Shawn Horcoff, William projects as a defensively reliable third-line center with size, strength and strong off-puck instincts. At nearly 6-5, he’s a disruptive force in his own zone, using his range and physicality to pressure puck attackers and cause turnovers.
Offensively, he facilitates with smart passes and uses his size to play with contact and protect the puck. He’ll need to develop his skating from a speed and mobility perspective to grow offensively. If he adds a step with some explosiveness and fills out his frame, Horcoff could become a physically imposing, two-way pivot in a bottom-six NHL role who plays against secondary matchups.
47. Daniil Prokhorov, F, MHK Dynamo St. Petersburg (MHL)
The best way to describe the 6-5 Prokhorov is a freight train on skates.
A physically dominant winger with middle-six power forward upside, he is one of the most physically imposing players in the draft. He delivers punishing hits, protects the puck well and drives the net with force. His heavy shot and straight-line speed contributed to a 20-goal MHL season, with flashes of puck skill.
He needs to develop his hockey sense, and he seems to get tunnel vision, which limits his playmaking and overall decision-making. If he improves his reads and off-puck awareness, Prokhorov could become a rare, punishing middle-six winger. Without growth, he still has a direct path to a depth NHL role through sheer physicality and size.
48. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
Ivankovic projects as a poised, technically sound platoon starter with the upside to become a No. 1 NHL goalie. Despite standing under 6 feet, he possesses elite skating, excellent positioning and controlled, patient movements that allow him to track and handle chaos with ease.
A standout for Hockey Canada and under-18 gold medalist, he plays bigger than his size, reading screens and staying composed under pressure. Height remains the key concern among teams, but his father is 6-5, so there is hope that Ivankovic grows another couple of inches. If he does, his mental makeup and technical foundation make him a good bet to be one the best goaltenders in the class.
49. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
A high-speed center with a great motor who projects as a middle-six, two-way forward, Romano has play-driving value in transition. He thrives off the rush, using speed and edge work to carry pucks through zones and create chances while keeping his feet moving.
Defensively, he’s a relentless backchecker with good positioning and strong stickwork. He lacks dynamic offensive creativity, but flashes of playmaking and shooting in stride have me believing there is more to give offensively. If he develops his creativity and learns to use the space he creates with his speed, Romano could evolve into a reliable middle-six center with speed and two-way ability.
50. Mason West, F, Edina High (USHS-MN)
Without a doubt, the best overall athlete in the draft class. A high school quarterback with legitimate college football potential and a hockey player who could go in the top 50 of the NHL draft does not come around too often.
The 6-6 forward possesses rare mobility, physical tools and intriguing upside. A natural shooter and smooth skater, his production on the Minnesota High School circuit at Edina High was impressive. When he stepped into the USHL, his development hit warp speed.
For obvious reasons, West is very raw as a prospect. He shows flashes of skill, an immovable net-front presence and growing physical engagement. Given his rawness, he will need to develop his puck control, positioning and decision-making. However, he will be able to rely on his QB scanning skills to help develop his decision-making in hockey. With continued development, there is a real chance he becomes a middle-six NHL power forward. The pure raw ability of this elite athlete has executives and scouts very excited.
51. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
Another of the really tall and mobile defensemen in this draft, Rombach has scouts believing in his shutdown ability.
The 6-6½ defender projects as a second-pair shutdown defenseman with elite defensive instincts and good puck retrievals. What separates him from similar defenders is that he handles pressure well. He shoulder checks on retrievals, scans coming up ice, absorbs contact and escapes pressure with smart passes.
He won’t be an offensive contributor, but he could develop into a plus transition player offensively. To reach his ceiling, Rombach needs to improve his skating posture, which will allow him to be more physical. With continued development at the University of Minnesota, he could become a quality shutdown defender in a top-four NHL role.
52. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping HC (J20 Nationell)
Genborg projects as a bottom-six checking winger with a strong chance to play NHL games thanks to his size, physicality and professional details. At 6-2, he’s a relentless forechecker with a great motor, plays a strong cycle game and is excellent defensively. Genborg impressed by earning over 20 SHL games this season and leading Sweden’s J20 league in goal pace, which buoys his NHL projection confidence.
His scoring should translate because it comes via net-front positioning and a good catch-and-release shot. While his offensive ceiling is limited by instincts and average playmaking, his blend of strength, effort and two-way value gives him a clear NHL path as a physical depth forward.
53. Semyon Frolov, G, MHK Spartak Moskva (MHL)
A steady riser in the rankings, Frolov projects as a 1B platoon goaltender with the potential to push for a larger role.
At 6-3, Frolov blends strong puck tracking and athleticism with smart positioning. He’s calm under pressure, sharp with his save selection and excels when facing high-danger chances. His aggressive play style adds value and could become a strength if developed well.
Splitting time across three MHL teams, he showed adaptability and consistency behind varied defenses and should have little issue adjusting to a KHL role next season. There are some who believe Frolov will go early in the second round, as his size, pure athleticism and demeanor are attractive to teams.
54. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
Gard projects as a reliable bottom-six checking center with the motor, size and defensive IQ to earn an NHL role. He excels at pushing attackers to the perimeter, disrupting attacks and forechecking. Gard plays with nonstop energy, combining strength and good body positioning to win battles and create space for his teammates.
While he’s primarily a defensive player, there are signs that further developing his playmaking and speed could increase his offensive output. If his offensive development plateaus, Gard’s high motor, detail-oriented game makes him a strong bet to anchor an NHL fourth line, because he’s exactly the type of player coaches trust in the defensive zone and on the penalty kill.
55. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
One of the most polarizing players in the draft class, Ryabkin is a boom-or-bust power forward with middle-six upside. He blends a quick release, creativity and punishing physicality, albeit very inconsistently.
After a slow start in Russia, his move to the USHL reignited his game, where he became a top goal scorer in the second half. He’s a threat off the rush with one-timers and in-tight finishes, and there are flashes of playmaking ability. His inconsistent pace, poor decision-making and undisciplined physicality limit his reliability and NHL potential.
If he can dial in his effort and details, Ryabkin’s unique blend of skill and grit could make him a dangerous NHL scorer. Otherwise, he’s unlikely to be an NHL player, which is why he’s a candidate to fall out of the top two rounds.
56. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
Czata projects as a bottom-six checking center with strong defensive instincts, penalty-killing value and underrated playmaking ability. Despite a drop in production, his defensive play was impressive, with good positioning, physicality and ability to disrupt plays.
Offensively, he shows flashes of quality passing ability and spatial awareness, especially off the puck. His responsible two-way game and hard skill make him a strong candidate for an NHL depth role, but he’ll need to add some speed and develop his offensive playmaking ability to be anything more than a fourth-line center.
57. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Trethewey projects as a No. 4/5 two-way defenseman with a blend of powerful skating, physicality and a heavy shot.
As the season progressed, he improved his scanning, stickwork and breakouts, and he become a steady shutdown presence for the NTDP. He takes away time and space, delivers punishing hits and activates with confidence. The next step is to improve his decision-making and passing when he activates.
As his defensive details and play under pressure continue to develop, Trethewey’s strong physical tool kit gives him legitimate NHL potential as a hard-nosed, second-pair defenseman.
58. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
Stockselius projects as a third-line, two-way forward with strong playmaking instincts, hard skill and projectable physical tools. A quality passer with high-end hockey sense, he consistently creates offense with intelligent playmaking and passing.
He led Djurgardens in playoff scoring and became a key contributor for Sweden’s under-18 team. As the season progressed, Stockselius started to physically engage and use his body more effectively, which should only improve as he physically matures.
He is a below-average skater in terms of speed and mechanics, and will likely need to improve that to hit his ceiling as a middle-six contributor. If he does not improve his skating — but can continue compensating with smart positioning and physical play — he’s likely to become a bottom-six contributor in the NHL.
59. Haoxi (Simon) Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
Haoxi Wang is a true project with second-pair NHL upside because he has a rare blend of size (6-6) and elite mobility.
A late arrival to competitive hockey, Wang is still learning the game but shows potential to become two-way defenseman by eliminating space, escaping pressure and skating pucks through transition. OHL competition exposed his rawness as a prospect, with inconsistent reads and turnovers, but he consistently improved his retrievals, breakouts and defensive play.
With significant development, Wang could become a rangy, shutdown defenseman with decent puck-moving ability. He’s a high-risk, high-reward swing who will test any team’s development staff.
60. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
It remains to be seen where the diminutive Mooney will go, but he’s one of my favorites in the draft class. He’s a high-energy winger with explosive speed, quick hands and a motor that doesn’t have an off switch. He’s dynamic off the rush and consistently beats defenders with his speed and puck handling.
Despite concerns about his 5-7 frame and questionable decision-making, he has more separating skills than many in this area. Many smaller players don’t play the defensive side of the puck, but that doesn’t describe Mooney. He’s consistently above the puck, in good positions and far more physically engaged than anyone his size — as well as most who have 5 inches and 25 pounds on him.
The fact that he thrives in chaos makes me believe his hockey sense and decision-making will improve. If he develops his playmaking, Mooney could become a middle-six spark plug with two-way impact who provides complementary scoring.
61. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
If a team wants a versatile Swiss Army knife type of player who can fill many roles, this is their guy.
Paupanekis showed two sides this season: shutdown specialist in Spokane, and play driver in Kelowna. A competitive, physical center with NHL-ready defensive detail, Paupanekis consistently shut down opposing top lines. He is not special at anything, but he does everything at an average or better level, and plays a professional style. He stays above the puck, supports his teammates, wins battles and it doesn’t hurt that he’s 6-4. His skating and hands allow him to manage pressure and make plays at speed, showing there is more offensive upside to give.
While his scoring instincts are a work in progress, his speed, strength and penalty-killing potential give him a clear bottom-six NHL projection with room to grow into more.
62. Tyler Hopkins, F, Kingston (OHL)
Hopkins projects as a bottom-six forward with a projectable defensive game and the motor to be reliable in a checking role. He defends with pro details, remaining patient, engaging physically and disrupting plays both on the forecheck and in transition. With good puck protection skill, he wins many of his puck battles.
Offensively, he makes efficient passes and has the skating to beat other players to pucks. While his offensive upside is limited, his playmaking has some developable traits. Given Hopkins’ high floor as penalty-killing, reliable two-way forward, he’s what scouts call a “safe bet” to reach the NHL as a fourth-line forward.
63. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
At 6-5, Kettles has a good blend of size, physicality and strong defensive instincts. Trusted in all key defensive situations, he uses his long reach and good positioning to close gaps, force attackers to the perimeter and win battles along the boards.
His puck moving is limited, which is likely related to his risk-averse style, but he did show flashes of being able to make plays under pressure. His skating and mobility need to develop for his play under pressure to improve, but he’s one of the youngest players in the draft class and has a longer development path than most. Kettles has the tools to become a dependable, hard-to-play-against blueliner in a No. 4/5 shutdown role.
64. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
Epperson made the most of his second draft-eligible season, earning top-line minutes next to Michael Misa and proving he could drive play on his own. He’s a relentless forechecker who reads the play to time his routes and stifles the breakout.
Epperson has a good blend of above-average playmaking, good hockey sense and a nonstop motor. He creates space, plays connected with his linemates, and supports plays across all three zones. He’ll need to add a step or two to be effective at the NHL level.
While he remains a project, the combination of two-way play, puck-moving skill and hockey sense gives him a shot at carving out a third-line NHL role.
Honorable mentions
Adam Benak, F, Youngstown (USHL)
Aleksei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
Conrad Fondrk, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Malte Vass, D, Farjestad (J20 Nationell)
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Sports
From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
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14 hours agoon
July 19, 2025By
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Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
Sports
If college football’s playoff system ain’t broke, why fix it?
Published
17 hours agoon
July 19, 2025By
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Dan WetzelJul 18, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
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Dan Wetzel is a senior writer focused on investigative reporting, news analysis and feature storytelling.
During college football’s Bowl Championship Series era, the sport’s opposition to an expanded, let alone expansive, playoff could be summarized in one colorful quote by then-Ohio State president E. Gordon Gee.
“They will wrench a playoff system out of my cold, dead hands,” Gee said in 2007.
We are happy to report that while college football does, indeed, have a playoff, Gee is still very much alive. The 81-year-old retired just this week after a second stint leading West Virginia University.
What is dead and buried, though, is college football’s staunch resistance to extending its postseason field. After decades of ignoring complaints and the promise of additional revenue to claim that just two teams was more than enough, plans to move from 12 participants to 16 were underway before last season’s inaugural 12-teamer even took place.
A once-static sport now moves at light speed, future implications be damned.
Fire. Ready. Aim.
So maybe the best bit of current news is that college football’s two ruling parties — the SEC and Big Ten — can’t agree on how the new 16-team field would be selected. It has led to a pause on playoff expansion.
Maybe, just maybe, it means no expansion will occur by 2026, as first planned, and college football can let the 12-team model cook a little to accurately assess what changes — if any — are even needed.
“We have a 12-team playoff, five conference champions,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said this week. “That could stay if we can’t agree.”
Good. After all, what’s the rush?
The 2025 season will play out with a 12-team format featuring automatic bids for five conference champions and seven at-large spots. Gone is last year’s clunky requirement that the top four seeds could go only to conference champs — elevating Boise State and Arizona State and unbalancing the field.
That alone was progress built on real-world experience. It should be instructive.
The SEC wants a 16-team model but with, as is currently the case, automatic bids going to the champions in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC and the best of the so-called Group of 6. The rest of the field would be at-large selections.
The Big Ten says it will not back such a proposal until the SEC agrees to play nine conference games (up from its current eight). Instead, it wants a 16-team system that gives four automatic bids apiece to the Big Ten and SEC, two each to the ACC and Big 12, one to the Group of 6 and then three at-large spots.
It’s been dubbed the “4-4-2-2-1-3” because college athletic leaders love ridiculous parlances almost as much as they love money.
While the ACC, Big 12 and others have offered opinions — mostly siding with the SEC — legislatively, the decision rests with the sport’s two big-dog conferences.
Right now, neither side is budging. A compromise might still be made, of course. The supposed deadline to set the 2026 system is Nov. 30. And Sankey actually says he prefers the nine-game SEC schedule, even if his coaches oppose it.
However, the possibility of the status quo standing for a bit longer remains.
What the Big Ten has proposed is a dramatic shift for a sport that has been bombarded with dramatic shifts — conference realignment, the transfer portal, NIL, revenue sharing, etc.
The league wants to stage multiple “play-in” games on conference championship weekend. The top two teams in the league would meet for the league title (as is currently the case), but the third- and fourth-place teams would play the fifth- and sixth-place teams to determine the other automatic bids.
Extend this out among all the conferences and you have up to a 26-team College Football Playoff (with 22 teams in a play-in situation). This would dramatically change the way the sport works — devaluing the stakes for nonconference games, for example. And some mediocre teams would essentially get a playoff bid — in the Big Ten’s case, the sixth seed last year was an Iowa team that finished 8-5.
Each conference would have more high-value inventory to sell to broadcast partners, but it’s not some enormous windfall. Likewise, four more first-round playoff games would need to find television slots and relevance.
Is anyone sure this is necessary? Do we need 16 at all, let alone with multibids?
In the 12-team format, the first round wasn’t particularly competitive — with a 19.3-point average margin of victory. It’s much like the first round of the NFL playoffs, designed mostly to make sure no true contender is left out.
Perhaps last year was an outlier. And maybe future games will be close. Or maybe they’ll be even more lopsided. Wouldn’t it be prudent to find out?
While there were complaints about the selection committee picking SMU and/or Indiana over Alabama, it wasn’t some egregious slight. Arguments will happen no matter how big the field. Besides, the Crimson Tide lost to two 6-6 teams last year. Expansion means a team with a similar résumé can cruise in.
Is that a good thing?
Whatever the decision, it is being made with little to no real-world data — pro or con. Letting a few 12-team fields play out, providing context and potentially unexpected consequences, sure wouldn’t hurt.
You don’t have to be Gordon Gee circa 2007 to favor letting this simmer and be studied before leaping toward another round of expansion.
Sports
Arch to victory? Texas preseason pick to win SEC
Published
17 hours agoon
July 19, 2025By
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Associated Press
Jul 18, 2025, 05:18 PM ET
Texas, with Heisman Trophy candidate Arch Manning set to take over as starting quarterback, is the preseason pick to win the Southeastern Conference championship.
The Longhorns received 96 of the 204 votes cast from media members covering the SEC media days this week to be crowned SEC champion on Dec. 6 in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Georgia, with 44 votes, received the second-most votes.
If that scenario plays out, it would mean a rematch of the 2024 SEC championship game, which Georgia won in an overtime thriller. The SEC championship game pits the two teams with the best regular-season conference record against one another.
Alabama was third with 29 votes, while LSU got 20. South Carolina was next with five, while Oklahoma received three and Vanderbilt and Florida each got two votes. Tennessee, Ole Miss and Auburn each received one vote.
Since 1992, only 10 times has the predicted champion in the preseason poll gone on to win the SEC championship.
The 2024 SEC title game averaged 16.6 million viewers across ABC and ESPN, the fourth-largest audience on record for the game. The overtime win for Georgia, which peaked with 19.7 million viewers, delivered the largest audience of the college football season.
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