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Less than a year ago in Downing Street, the bunting was out, and Keir Starmer was walking into No 10 to a chorus of cheers after winning a landslide victory.

Now there’s such a rebellion from his own MPs, he’s being forced to climb down on his welfare reforms.

PM set to make serious concessions – politics latest

For a prime minister to face such a challenge so early in his premiership, with such a big majority, is simply unprecedented.

It is a humiliating blow to his authority from a parliamentary party that has felt ignored by Downing Street.

How has this happened?

The PM’s entire focus for the past 12 days has been on international diplomacy.

He’s gone from the G7 in Canada, trying to deal with Trump, trade deals, de-escalation; then Israel-Iran, he was at Chequers trying to deal with that crisis; and then he was straight to NATO.

You could forgive him for being pretty angry that those who should have been managing the shop back home have ended up in such an enormous blow-up with MPs. A PM needs to be able to trust his team when he’s dealing with international crisis.

As I understand it, a month ago up to 140 MPs signed a private letter to the whips warning they would not accept the welfare reforms.

The whips told No 10 – and No 10 it seems stuck their fingers in their ears and didn’t pay attention to it.

But this is really draining on the PM’s authority. Ultimately, he carries the can.

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Who will take the fall for welfare chaos?

What happens next?

As I understand it, he’s now looking at serious concessions in order to get his welfare bill passed on Tuesday.

No 10 are considering whether they drop the PIP changes for existing claimants, and the health element of universal credit for existing claimants too.

Speaking to me on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Labour peer and ex-minister Harriet Harman said she expects concessions to be enough to appease enough of the rebels.

It will leave the chancellor needing to look somewhere else to make billions of pounds of savings.

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What are the PM’s welfare reforms?

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‘I don’t know how I will survive’

It’s a hot mess, and it was avoidable. It has left very bad blood between the parliamentary party and No 10 and No 11. There’s a lot of ire directed at Rachel Reeves at the moment too.

For a PM to be facing such an overt challenge to his authority with a working majority of 165, less than a year into his leadership, having to U-turn because he’s facing defeat?

I’ve never seen anything like it.

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes $3.8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes .8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

China Merchants Bank tokenizes .8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

CMBI’s tokenization initiative with BNB Chain builds on its previous work with Singapore-based DigiFT, which tokenized its fund on Solana in August.

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Unlimited leverage and sentiment-driven valuations create cascading liquidations that wipe billions overnight. Crypto’s maturity demands systematic discipline.

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