NHL trade grades: Report cards on Gibson, Dobson, Peterka, more
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Ryan S. Clark
The NHL’s offseason is off and running, and the trades have been piling up since the Florida Panthers raised the Stanley Cup for a second straight season.
That includes Chris Kreider heading to the Anaheim Ducks, Trevor Zegras joining the Philadelphia Flyers and Noah Dobson being traded to the Montreal Canadiens. During Day 2 of the draft, John Gibson was traded to the Detroit Red Wings.
This page will be your home for report cards on every major trade this offseason, with the most recent deals first.
June 28: Gibson to the Red Wings
No, this is not a drill. After years of speculation, the Anaheim Ducks finally traded goaltender John Gibson.
The Detroit Red Wings landed Gibson, who was with the Ducks for more than a decade, in exchange for goalie Petr Mrazek, a 2027 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
Here’s a look at what the deal means for each side.
Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman had plenty of questions to answer this offseason after the club had missed the postseason for nine seasons. One of them is what he and his front office staff would do about their goaltending situation.
They tried different solutions in recent seasons. Ville Husso went from winning 26 games in his first season with the club (2022-23) to being traded to the Ducks during 2024-25. A tandem of Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot combined for a 0.899 save percentage, which is why the Wings traded for Mrazek before the deadline; he had a .902 save percentage in five games.
Lyon is an unrestricted free agent, whereas Mrazek and Talbot both had a year left on their contracts. It presented the possibly they could turn to Sebastian Cossa, their first-round pick from 2021, who finished with a .911 save percentage and a 2.45 goals-against average in the AHL. Some believe he could use another year of development as the Red Wings seek to avoid a 10th consecutive season without the playoffs.
Acquiring Gibson now provides them with a chance to have the stability that has eluded them. Injuries — along with the growth of Lukas Dostal — played a role in why Gibson was limited to 28 starts last season. But in that time, he won 11 games while registering a .912 save percentage — a strong figure compared to what the Red Wings experienced with their options in 2024-25.
The Red Wings could use Gibson and Talbot as a tandem while letting Lyon walk in free agency. The 31-year-old has two years left on his contract at $6.4 million annually, which also gives the Red Wings more time to develop Cossa in the AHL.
Per PuckPedia, Detroit now has $18.411 million in cap space to address a roster that has decisions to make regarding UFAs such as Patrick Kane and a three-player restricted free agent class that includes Jonatan Berggren.
Ducks GM Pat Verbeek had to eventually deal with the dynamic surrounding Dostal and Gibson. Building through the draft has been a significant aspect of the Ducks’ rebuild, and Dostal is one of the players who has embodied that movement.
In the past two seasons, Dostal grew from promising prospect to full-time NHL goaltender, with the 2024-25 season showing he could handle the demands of being a No. 1. The 25-year-old finished the season with 23 wins, posting a .903 save percentage in 54 games playing behind a promising but still mostly youthful defense that does include veterans Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba.
Dostal’s age, usage and his performances are all factors that make him vital to the Ducks’ present and future. They will also play a role in what his next contract could look like, given he is an RFA this summer.
It isn’t that the Ducks don’t have cap space. They most certainly do, and a lot of it, which is why they appear to be in play for every major name in free agency. But they also have three RFAs to sign in Drew Helleson, Mason McTavish and Dostal.
The same applies next offseason, when Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger will all be due for new contracts as RFAs still under team control.
Even with the cap space the Ducks possessed at the start of the offseason, they had a chance to create more. That’s part of the reason why they traded Trevor Zegras earlier this week. Trading Gibson, and the last two years of his deal, now pushes their cap space to $38.188 million, per PuckPedia, which is the second most in the league behind the San Jose Sharks.
June 27: Coyle to the Blue Jackets
In need of salary cap space, the Colorado Avalanche created some Friday by trading Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to the Columbus Blue Jackets.
In return, the Blue Jackets traded prospect forward Gavin Brindley, a 2025 third-round pick, and a conditional 2027 second-round pick to Colorado.
Let’s take a quick glance at what it all means for both teams.
The Avs secured a second-line center by signing Brock Nelson — added at the trade deadline — to a three-year contract extension worth $7.5 million annually. But that resulted in the Avs having just $1.2 million in cap space entering Friday, per PuckPedia. Given that the Avs have a six-player unrestricted free agent class — led by Ryan Lindgren — and it meant they needed to do something.
Coyle was one of the strongest candidates for a trade. His arrival at the trade deadline gave the Avs one of the best top-nine center dynamics in the NHL, behind Nathan MacKinnon and Nelson. But when a team is facing a cap crisis, does it make sense to pay a third-line center $5.25 million average annual value when there are more team-friendly options available?
Wood was another potential trade candidate, given he has four years left at $2.5 million AAV. Injuries and inconsistencies led to his scoring only 13 goals the past two seasons with the Avs — the same amount he had in his final full season with the New Jersey Devils.
But that also leaves the Avs needing to address their bottom-six forwards — in addition to possibly retaining Lindgren — along with anything else they seek to accomplish in free agency.
It’s possible Brindley could help with that at some point in the future. The 20-year-old was one of the top prospects in the Blue Jackets’ farm system, which is one of the strongest in the NHL. A second-round pick in 2023, Brindley scored six goals and 17 points in 52 games while playing his first professional season in the AHL. Before that, Brindley starred at Michigan, where he scored 25 goals and 53 points as a sophomore during the 2023-24 season.
At this point, the Blue Jackets have so much cap space that they can pick and choose what deals make sense. Especially if it involves working with a team that needs to create cap space like the Avs.
Coyle and Wood were a luxury in Colorado, but in Columbus they’ll strengthen the bottom six while allowing the front office to focus elsewhere in free agency.
Entering Friday, the Blue Jackets had six unrestricted free agent forwards, while Dmitri Voronkov is a restricted free agent. Adding Coyle gives them a third-line center with Sean Monahan and Adam Fantilli on the top two lines. Wood gives them a winger who can be used on the fourth line (or potentially higher); altogether, the Jackets now have 13 forwards who are either under contract or under team control as an RFA.
They also have more than $30 million in cap space, with the idea that some of that could be used on extensions for Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov.
Brinkley was one of their best prospects, but the Blue Jackets still have promising forwards in their system, including Cayden Lindstrom, Jordan Dumais and Luca Del Bel Belluz.
June 27: Dobson to the Canadiens
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Noah Dobson capitalizes on the power play
Noah Dobson capitalizes on the power play
Defenseman Noah Dobson was at the center of a trade Friday between the Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders with the idea that both franchises are heading in different directions.
The Canadiens got Dobson after he had signed an eight-year contract extension worth $9.5 million annually with the Islanders on Friday. New York got forward Emil Heineman and both of the Canadiens’ 2025 first-round picks, No. 16 and No. 17.
Here’s how both front offices performed and what it means for each side going forward.
If there’s an opportunity to get a 25-year-old, right-handed-shooting, top-pairing, puck-moving defenseman who can play in every scenario — who is also packaged in a 6-foot-4 frame — that’s a move a GM should make.
But, it’s done with the full understanding that it’s going to cost quite a bit, and that’s what makes the decision by Canadiens GM Kent Hughes one that’s rather emphatic because of what it signals about his team.
Specifically, Montreal is serious about making its 2025 playoff appearance a regular occurrence, with the goal of winning a Stanley Cup in the near future.
Future. That’s the word at the heart of what this trade represented for the Canadiens. Having two first-round picks is a benefit. For teams in a rebuild, it’s a chance to build toward what they believe is a stronger future, while playoff teams — or those on the cusp — use them as trade chips to acquire someone who can make them better now.
Hughes took the latter option with this deal, and it provides Montreal with what appears to be one of the more enticing young defensive setups in the NHL.
Dobson, who has scored 10 or more goals in four straight seasons, adds to a group of young Canadiens defensemen that includes reigning Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle and Jayden Struble. The Habs also have recent first-round picks Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher in their system.
That’s six defensemen all younger than 25. Four of them are first-round picks, while the remainder were second-round selections (including Hutson). This is what’s called a problem. Or rather, it has the potential to create a problem because of what that collection could achieve over time.
But then there’s the actual “problem” facing Hughes now that he has Dobson under contract, in that the Habs are now $3.394 million over the salary cap (per PuckPedia), while having seven defensemen under contract or team control for 2025-26.
It’s going to force Hughes to decide which defenseman Montreal moves on from to clear cap space, while also having the necessary group to make the aforementioned playoff push. Veteran Mike Matheson has one year left on his contract at $4.88 million before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, while Alexandre Carrier has two years remaining at $3.75 million annually before he hits the open market.
Getting that situation handled sooner rather than later allows the Habs to gain more financial flexibility should they want to do more, although they also have a pair of RFAs in Struble and Jakub Dobes who are in need of new deals.
New Islanders GM Mathieu Darche spent six seasons in the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s front office, allowing him to appreciate the value of certain items. One of them is the value of building a long-term winner through the draft.
GMs running lottery teams need to have a level of honesty and understanding about the direction of their franchise. That’s what makes anything the Islanders do in Darche’s first offseason even more critical.
That’s not to say that Dobson couldn’t have been part of those long-term plans on Long Island. But there’s also something to be said for identifying the strongest possible value a player has for your franchise, and determining that this value is greater with a return like one that Darche got here.
What Darche received in exchange for a top-pairing defenseman in Dobson will play a significant role in shaping the Islanders for the next decade, if not longer.
Having the No. 1 pick was a starting point toward that future — and it’s likely he’ll add talented defenseman Matthew Schaefer with that pick. But by now adding two more first-round picks, he has even more options.
Darche and his staff might decide they want to keep both picks they acquired from the Canadiens, and draft three players. After all, they would be adding more to a system that, despite having 2024 first-rounder Cole Eiserman, is in distinct need of talent. Part of the reason for that is that the Isles have had four draft classes since 2018 (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) in which they did not have a first-round pick.
Or will Darche look to repackage one or both of those picks in another trade, with the hope of doing something else he and his staff believe can set them up for even greater success over the long term?
Although the future is in focus, there’s also something to be said about the present and what it means now that Dobson is gone. The Islanders now have five defensemen under contract, and seven who are under team control, with a pair of pending RFAs in Scott Perunovich and Alexander Romanov. Tony DeAngelo and Mike Reilly are UFAs from the 2024-25 roster.
The Islanders have $20.934 million in cap space (per PuckPedia), which can be used to address their defensive needs along with whatever else they need to handle this summer; that includes re-signing Heineman, who is an RFA after scoring 10 goals and 18 points in 62 games during his first full NHL season.
June 26: Peterka to the Mammoth
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JJ Peterka lights the lamp for Sabres
JJ Peterka lights the lamp for Sabres
Two of the storylines to watch this NHL offseason were whether the Utah Mammoth could add at least one top-six forward to their roster, and if the Buffalo Sabres would part ways with restricted free agent JJ Peterka.
Wednesday night or early Thursday, depending upon the time zone, those narratives collided, with the Mammoth acquiring Peterka in a trade with the Sabres, with forward Josh Doan and defenseman Michael Kesselring going to western New York.
Let’s look at how both front offices performed in this swap, as well as what it means for each franchise moving forward.
In 2024-25, the Utah Hockey Club was a top-10 team in terms of shot share, shots per 60 minutes rate, and scoring chances per 60 — but finished 16th in goals per game. So there was a disconnect. With $20.357 million in salary cap space, a solution needed to be found for that problem.
And so the latest significant move for Mammoth GM Bill Armstrong? Landing Peterka in trade, then immediately signing him to a five-year extension worth $7.7 million annually.
Since Ryan and Ashley Smith purchased the franchise and moved the team to Salt Lake City, the Mammoth have taken a strategic yet aggressive approach. It started last year when they traded for a legitimate No. 1 defenseman in Mikhail Sergachev along with John Marino as part of a plan to revamp their blue line.
Peterka is a continuation of that need to take another big swing. In doing so, the Mammoth add a 23-year-old proven goal scorer who not only addresses their need for more goals but also fits into their long-term plans. After scoring 28 goals and what was then a career-high 50 points in 2023-24, Peterka responded with 27 goals and 68 points in 77 games in what would be his final season in Buffalo.
Trades can often be about creating more options for a team, and Peterka gives the Mammoth quite a few. They now have a top-six winger group that also includes Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Nick Schmaltz. That amounts to a quartet of 20-goal scorers to play with centers Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton, who also scored more than 20 goals last season, anchoring those top two lines.
Armed with what’s considered to be one of the strongest farm systems in the NHL, the Mammoth didn’t have to part ways with any of their top prospects to get Peterka. They still have Matias Maccelli — who they could seek to move one from in another trade — and still have $14.982 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
Nick Bjugstad and Michael Carcone are their most prominent unrestricted free agents, while Jack McBain remains their lone restricted free agent. After landing a difference-maker at No. 4 overall in the draft on Friday — or using that pick to acquire another NHL-ready player instead — they’ll be able to use the majority of that remaining cap space to be active in free agency on July 1.
The most apt word one could use to describe what Sabres GM Kevyn Adams received in return for Peterka? Complicated.
Generally, a 23-year-old top-six forward who remains under team control is going to hypothetically attract a certain price. In some ways, the Sabres were able to get that by receiving a pair of NHL players in Doan and Kesselring. But there’s an argument to be made that the Sabres didn’t receive enough.
Missing the playoffs for the past 14 seasons has left the Sabres in the space between trying to end that drought, while having one eye on the future in case plans need to change (again). Although the Sabres do have one of the stronger farm systems, the Peterka trade presented an opportunity for them to add more — whether it be through draft capital or prospects.
That’s especially true when the player at the center of the deal was so important to the Sabres, given he was second on the team in points, third in goals, third in power-play points and third in ice time among forwards with more than 70 games.
It’s not like Adams walked away with nothing. Doan could carve a place as a top-nine forward. Joining the Sabres is a chance for Doan to find the consistency that eluded him in Utah. He played 28 games in the AHL last season in addition to the 51 games he played for the Hockey Club.
Kesselring gives the Sabres a third right-shot defenseman on their roster. He finished with more than 20 points, while logging more than 70 games, in consecutive seasons. He was also sixth among Mammoth defensemen in average ice time; like Doan, he could see a greater role in Buffalo.
Doan and Kesselring give the Sabres depth. They are also going to cost the club a combined $2.325 million in cap space, with both players having a year left on their respective contracts before restricted free agency. The Sabres now have $20.881 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
Yet it still results in this question: Was a bottom-six/middle-six forward and a middle-pairing (at best) defenseman enough of a return for a top-six forward? Or should Adams have gotten more for a player that is addressing one of the Mammoth’s biggest needs, while leaving themselves in need of filling a sizable hole in the roster?
June 23: Zegras to the Flyers
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The highlight reel Trevor Zegras is taking to Philadelphia
With Trevor Zegras being shipped to the Flyers, relive some of his top plays from his last season with the Ducks.
Rumor finally became reality Monday with the Anaheim Ducks trading forward Trevor Zegras to the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Ducks moved Zegras, who has long been discussed as a potential trade target, to the Flyers for forward Ryan Poehling, a 2025 second-round pick (originally belonging to the Columbus Blue Jackets) and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
What does it all mean, and how did both front offices fare?
“Potential” is the word that’s going to be used the most to describe this trade.
It starts with the fact that Zegras gives the Flyers another top-nine center in addition to what they already have with Sean Couturier and Noah Cates, with the idea that Zegras has the potential to become their top-line center.
Zegras is a two-time 20-goal scorer who has also authored a pair of consecutive 60-point seasons. That could give the Flyers, who finished 24th in goals per game, another player who can score while creating opportunities for those around him.
At 24, he also potentially fits within the Flyers’ long-term plans. The Flyers were the NHL’s youngest team in 2024-25, with an average age of 26.09 years, according to Elite Prospects.
Again, the key word here is potentially.
Injuries and inconsistencies over the past two seasons created questions as to whether Zegras could return to becoming the player who had those consecutive 60-point seasons back in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Further, they led to inquiries about whether he’d return to or surpass those totals while remaining the Ducks.
Surrounding Zegras with wingers such as Tyson Foerster, Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov and/or Owen Tippett could get him back on track. After all, at one point Zegras was among the league’s breakout stars and looked as if he was going to become one of the future faces of the NHL. He was chosen as the cover athlete for NHL 23.
Then there’s the added incentive that Zegras is in the final season of a three-year contract worth $5.75 million annually. He will remain under team control as a restricted free agent for the next two seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2027-28 campaign.
Even after taking on Zegras’ salary, the Flyers will still have $15.141 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
For all the questions the Ducks faced about holding on to Zegras, there appeared to be a rather large one looming:
Is it prudent to pay a third-line center more than $5 million annually when there are cheaper options available and other roster holes to fill?
Leo Carlsson — the No. 2 overall pick from 2023 — showed he could handle the demands of being a full-time, top-line center. He scored 20 goals and 45 points last season, giving the Ducks a two-way center packaged inside a 6-3, 205-pound frame.
Follow that with Mason McTavish, who was the No. 3 draft pick in 2021, scoring 22 goals and a career-high 52 points in a second-line center role.
McTavish led the Ducks in goals last season and finished second in points. Carlsson was third on the team in points. Getting that sort of production out of their top two centers made Zegras expendable for Anaheim.
Then there are the financial ramifications. Anaheim is projected to have a little more than $36 million in cap space this season, which appears to be quite a bit, and it is — until one looks at the future and how GM Pat Verbreek must tread carefully. Lukas Dostal, Drew Helleson and McTavish are restricted free agents in need of new contracts this offseason. Those deals will likely shape what necessary funds the Ducks possess to be active in unrestricted free agency starting July 1.
Looking at what they could do next offseason, however, is what made the trade more enticing. Zegras was slated to be part of a six-player RFA class that includes Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe and Olen Zellweger, while Jacob Trouba will be an unrestricted free agent then.
That five-player RFA class and Trouba remain in place, so those decisions will have to be made. But instead of having to worry about what to pay Zegras, the Ducks could have a much lower price point to deal with when it comes to Poehling, a 26-year-old who scored 12 goals and 31 points in 2024-25. He has one year remaining on his contract worth $1.9 million before he becomes a UFA next summer.
June 12: Kreider to the Ducks
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Chris Kreider traded to the Ducks
Take a look at the stats and notes to know after the Rangers dealt Chris Kreider to the Ducks.
Could this be the start of something more?
That question could be asked of both the Anaheim Ducks and the New York Rangers after the first major trade this offseason. On Thursday, the Rangers sent Chris Kreider and a 2025 fourth-round pick (Anaheim’s own, previously acquired in the December 2024 Jacob Trouba trade) to the Ducks for center prospect Carey Terrance and a 2025 third-round pick (Toronto’s, acquired in the Feb. 2024 Ilya Lyubushkin trade).
Here’s a glance at what this means for both franchises along how they each performed.
There was a need to create salary cap space. There were the questions about production. There was also the fact that the Rangers could find a replacement elsewhere.
All told, there were many reasons that influenced the Rangers’ decision to move on from Chris Kreider.
Kreider scored 20 or more goals for the seventh straight season and for the 10th time in his career. That consistency is what came to define Kreider, but it became one of the reasons a move out of New York seemed likely.
Kreider turned 34 in late April, at the end of a season in which he scored 22 goals; however, that was a decline from what he had done the past three years. He scored 36 or more goals in each of the last three seasons, while averaging 69 points per campaign in that time. He finished with 30 points in 68 games this season, for a 0.44 points-per-game average.
With two years left on his contract worth $6.5 million annually, it became a numbers game for the Rangers.
Star goaltender Igor Shesterkin signed a new contract that starts in 2025-26 that ramps up his annual salary from $5.67 million to $11.50 million. There were also the series of in-season trades that Rangers GM Chris Drury made to get Will Borgen and J.T. Miller that led to them taking on an additional $12.1 million per year; Borgen signed a five-year extension worth $4.1 million annually, and Miller is entering the second of a seven-year pact in which he’ll earn $8 million annually.
This left the Rangers needing to find solutions to address a seven-player restricted free agent class led by K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones, Matthew Robertson, and Will Cuylle.
That’s not to say there aren’t questions about how they’ll replace Kreider’s production.
It’s what made the spring signing of Boston College star winger Gabe Perreault important, because it gives the Rangers a potential top-six option on a team-friendly deal, while allowing them to create the necessary space to address that RFA class — on top of everything else they may seek to achieve this offseason.
The Rangers now have $14.922 million in cap space after shedding Kreider’s contract, per PuckPedia. That provides the front office with more financial flexibility than it initially possessed, with the notion it might not be done.
Adding Terrance, who signed with the Ducks in April, brings a center prospect to a system that appeared to need one. Their strongest prospect down the middle, Noah Laba, signed with the club after three seasons at Colorado College, while Dylan Roobroeck’s first full professional campaign included 20 goals in the AHL.
Terrance, who was a second-round pick in 2023, had his third straight 20-goal season for the OHL’s Erie Otters; overall, he finished with 39 points in 45 games. He also represented Team USA at the IIHF World Junior Championships, where he had two goals in seven games before sustaining an injury.
Rebuilds are all about ending up in a better place, with the notion that all of them take a different path to reach that desired destination. The Kreider trade is a signal that the Ducks are remaining steadfast in an approach that has served them well so far, with the belief it could lead to them either reaching the playoffs or at least be in the wild-card discussion in 2025-26.
For all the conversations about how they have drafted and developed, the Ducks have also made a concerted effort to insulate that homegrown young core with respected veterans. It’s a veteran group that includes Radko Gudas, Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano, and Krieder’s former Rangers teammate Jacob Trouba.
So what does this mean for the Ducks’ top-nine winger setup? Kreider adds to a group that has Sam Colangelo, Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, Killorn, and Vatrano. Not only does it provide the Ducks with goal scorers in general, but also with players who can grab those goals in a variety of ways.
And this is what makes the Ducks either fascinating — or terrifying — depending upon the perspective. Ducks GM Pat Verbeek just took on a forward with a $6.5 million cap hit, and PuckPedia projects he still has more than $32.188 million in available space.
This is what could make Katella Avenue a destination come free agency on July 1.
Of course, Verbeek must act responsibly. Lukas Dostal, Drew Helleson and Mason McTavish, who are part of the Ducks’ young core, are each pending RFAs that need a new contract. Then there’s what lies ahead next offseason, when Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, Trevor Zegras, Olen Zellweger, and Gauthier will all need new deals at the same time.
Possessing that much young talent on cheap contracts creates financial flexibility. It’s why they were able to add Kreider for the price of a draft pick and a prospect in Terrance, who was expendable because of their center situation in the NHL and Lucas Pettersson, their second-round pick in 2024, in the system.
Ever since their rebuild started, the Ducks have been a franchise that’s been about trying to make progress by any means necessary. They’ve developed one of the NHL’s most promising farm systems in that time, and cultivated an expectation for their prospects. All the while, they’ve known when to make the moves like the one that got them Kreider.
Now what?
Finishing with 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season has them at a critical point. It’s part of the reason why they moved on from head coach Greg Cronin after two seasons to hire Joel Quenneville with the premise that they feel they can go further.
Because that’s what it means to play in the gauntlet that has become the Western Conference. For all the established contenders like the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche, there are still other teams that can carve a path.
The Seattle Kraken did it in their second season back in 2022-23. A year later, the Vancouver Canucks did it in their first full season under Rick Tocchet in 2023-24. This season saw the St. Louis Blues return to the playoffs, while the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club pushed until the latter stages of the regular season.
Anaheim finished 16 points out of the final Western Conference wild-card spot. But the gradual improvement the Ducks have shown — along with the fact they have made two of the bigger moves this offseason, believing they could do more — could see them knocking on the door to the postseason, or kicking right through it.
One of the winners in the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday was the Big 12. BYU (No. 7) and Texas Tech (No. 8) showed up in the top 10, and Utah sits within striking distance at No. 13.
It adds up to make Saturday’s matchup between the Cougars and Red Raiders — perhaps a Big 12 title game preview — the most consequential in college football. A loss for either team wouldn’t necessarily remove it from the playoff conversation but would strike a significant blow and leave little room for error down the stretch.
The two other ranked matchups this week are No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri and No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa. Look out for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off a convincing win against Minnesota and appear to have turned a corner offensively. Meanwhile, the Ducks have had a couple of weeks to prepare after they failed to impress in a 21-7 win against Wisconsin on Oct. 25. — Kyle Bonagura
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Texas A&M | Five freshmen to know
BYU-Texas Tech | Quotes of the week
How the Texas A&M got better in 2025
There haven’t been any wholesale schematic changes, it’s just that the Aggies finally added a couple of contributors at wide receiver to give offensive coordinator Collin Klein more juice. Other than that, they’ve just grown up. A&M’s offensive line was a giant weakness at the end of the Jimbo Fisher era, but offensive line coach Adam Cushing has worked wonders, fashioning a group in the running for the Joe Moore Award, which goes to the most outstanding OL unit. Quarterback Marcel Reed is in his first full season as the starter, so he has added experience, and the solid protection means he can get through his reads. But the additions of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion at receiver, one of only three tandems in the SEC who each have more than 500 receiving yards, have given the Aggies breathing room. The vertical threats open up the running game (Craver’s 455 receiving yards after the catch is the second most in the FBS), and Klein’s offense also stretches teams horizontally.
Last season, there just weren’t any A&M receivers getting separation. This season, Reed is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt beyond the line of scrimmage, the second-most air yards per throw in the SEC behind Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar. That kind of room opens up running lanes. The Aggies average 2.35 yards per rush before contact, third best in the SEC, and that also benefits Reed. He has had both passing and rushing touchdowns in four straight games, the longest streak by an Aggie since Johnny Manziel had five in 2012 and something only five SEC players have done in the past 15 years. — Dave Wilson
Five freshmen who’ve made a name for themselves
Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU: Bachmeier left Stanford, hit the transfer portal and replaced a returning starter before playing a single snap this fall. On Saturday, he leads the unbeaten Cougars into a pivotal Big 12 showdown at No. 8 Texas Tech with BYU in the thick of the playoff hunt. Bachmeier has delivered on the dual-threat promise he flashed out of high school, accounting for 2,101 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns in eight starts. Among true freshman quarterbacks, he ranks first nationally in completion percentage (58.7%), passer rating (95.2) and yards per attempt (7.9). And at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Bachmeier is also getting it done on the ground, entering Week 10 tied for seventh in rushing scores (9) among FBS passers. The Cougars’ first-year quarterback appears to be the full package, and Bachmeier is a big reason No. 7 BYU hits the back end of the regular season firmly contending for a playoff spot.
Mason Heintschel, QB, Pitt: A three-star prospect in the 2025 class, Heintschel has been a revelation for the 24th-ranked Panthers, who appeared in the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday for only the second time since December 2021. Pitt (7-2) is 5-0 since Heintschel took over for season-opening starter Eli Holstein at Boston College on Oct. 4. Over those five games, Heintschel has thrown for 1,547 yards with 12 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. One of only five true freshman quarterbacks with 200-plus passing attempts in the FBS, Heintschel sits tied with Maryland’s Malik Washington for the most TDs within that group and trails only Bachmeier in completion percentage (64.1%) and passer rating (92.0). Turnovers — nine total in five games — have been a problem for Heintschel, and his ball security and relative inexperience will be tested in matchups with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami to close the regular season.
Caleb Hawkins, RB, North Texas: For all the (warranted) conversation about Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker, Hawkins is writing an unlikely success story of his own in the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense this fall. Fresh off a 33-carry, 197-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Navy in Week 10, the three-star newcomer from Shawnee, Oklahoma, leads all freshman running backs across the country in attempts (121), rushing yards (744) and touchdowns (11). Among FBS rushers with at least 50 carries this fall, Hawkins ranks tied for fifth in rushing scores and 11th in yards per attempt (6.1). Inevitably, Hawkins’ breakout debut season is already earning him the attention of Power 4 programs as a potential offseason transfer portal target. But for now, he’s one of the key parts of a high-scoring offense that has North Texas contending for an American Conference title, and in turn, a potential place in the playoff field.
Graceson Littleton, CB, Texas: A late addition to the Longhorns’ top-ranked 2025 recruiting class, the 6-foot, 180-pound defensive back has become a fixture in a new-look Texas secondary powering the nation’s 25th-ranked pass defense. Primarily operating at slot corner, Littleton has tallied 33 total tackles and a pair of pass breakups while playing more snaps (409) than all but four other Longhorns defenders this fall, and his two interceptions — including a fourth-quarter pick against Oklahoma on Oct. 11 — leave him tied for the national lead among freshmen defensive backs across the FBS. Through nine games, Littleton has blossomed into an instant contributor with the makings of a future star in the Texas secondary, where he and the No. 11 Longhorns are staring down a pair of daunting late-season matchups with No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami: The pass catcher they call “Baby Jesus” in Coral Gables isn’t just putting together the best freshman receiving season across the FBS. Toney, who reclassified from the 2026 cycle to enter college early, is also already one of the nation’s productive wide receivers. No first-year pass catcher has recorded more targets (66), receptions (52) and receiving yards (632) than Toney in 2025. And among all receivers nationally, the 5-11 newcomer from Liberty City, Florida, ranks seventh in yards after catch (390) and 16th in first-down receptions (31). Toney, who has yet to drop a pass in his college career, has immediately become one of the country’s most electrifying playmakers this fall, and he projects to be a central contributor to whatever the 18th-ranked Hurricanes do from here — in 2025 and beyond. — Eli Lederman
What do BYU, Texas Tech need to capitalize on to win?
BYU: Keep it close. This is a team that has proved it has the poise to pull out close games, and in a game like this, that matters. Texas Tech has been winning more convincingly and it was perhaps its lack of experience in tight contests that backfired against Arizona State a few weeks ago.
For true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, Texas Tech’s impressive front seven will force him to make faster decisions. It will be his most challenging test of the season and he needs to play close to error-free for BYU to find a rhythm on offense.
Despite the undefeated record, BYU hasn’t been as good defensively as it was a year ago. This would be a perfect game to reach its capabilities. — Bonagura
Texas Tech: In a must-win game for the Red Raiders’ Big 12 title hopes, they need to keep quarterback Behren Morton protected and healthy. Will Hammond is out for the season and can’t step in to save the day if Morton goes down again. Finishing drives is a major challenge in this one. No FBS team has kicked more field goals in the red zone than Texas Tech (15-for-15 this season), and Utah coming up short on three fourth-down conversions in field goal range helped swing the Holy War game.
On defense, Texas Tech’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense needs to contain Big 12 leading rusher LJ Martin and get Bachmeier into third-and-long. The freshman has been disciplined in those situations with an 88.4 QBR and no turnovers and can scramble out of trouble, but he hasn’t yet faced David Bailey and Romello Height. — Max Olson
Quotes of the week
“I think we are desperate,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said of his unbeaten Aggies. “I tell them all the time: You know, we have earned everything that we’ve got, right? We’ve got a record. We’ve got a ranking. We’ve got opportunities that we have worked really, really hard to earn. And, every single Saturday, someone is coming in and trying to take all of that from us, and that’s the urgency that we have.”
“They’re big humans that take up a lot of space,” Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said of BYU’s talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage. “We’re going to have to do a great job up front on our double-teams. You know, we’re going to have to win our one-on-ones. I think that’s huge.”
Miami’s Mario Cristobal on the message to his team after the Hurricanes’ Week 10 loss to SMU: “When things go wrong, that’s when all the rats start to come out and try to peck at you and all that other stuff. You got to go tell them to go. You know what? Go to work, and do it emphatically and do it with some guts. Go fix the things that we have to fix so we can go get better and win.”
Oregon’s Dan Lanning ahead of the No. 9 Ducks’ Week 11 trip to No. 20 Iowa: “I’m shocked this team isn’t ranked [in the AP poll]. If you look at the way they’ve been playing, especially recently, and the job that they’ve done. They jumped out really fast against the Minnesota team that plays good football, had a big win this past weekend. So I think this team probably is not getting near enough credit that they deserve for the kind of team that they are.”
“The reality is college football needs to be decided on the field,” Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz said in a critique of the College Football Playoff committee’s initial rankings. “There needs to be play-in games. There’s not another sport in the country that is decided — besides NCAA basketball, NCAA baseball and NCAA football — by committees. Like, decide it on the field. Just like pro sports do.”
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney on accountability in officiating this week: “Refs are people, too. It ain’t just coaches and players. And if they’re a part of the game, then by god, they ought to be a part of the game and they ought to be a part of the accountability. They ought to be a part of the consequences, not just behind some shadowy curtain. Like no, they ought to have to answer for it.”
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Bill Connelly
The stakes are officially set. We know what the College Football Playoff committee thinks of all the requisite contenders — we know that Oregon could be in trouble with another loss, that Notre Dame is in excellent shape and that the ACC probably is getting only one team in (which is all it deserves). Now it’s time to see how this all plays out.
Week 11 should be a delight. We get a battle of top-10s in Lubbock and a bigger-than-expected upset attempt in Iowa City. The SEC’s top two teams, though safe in the playoff race, face unique tests. The ACC and American Conference races might gain some clarity, and they might grow even sloppier.
What shifts will we see and where? Here’s everything you need to follow in a rather off-the-beaten-path Week 11.
The biggest game in Lubbock in 17 years
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon, ABC)
For just the fifth time in history, a top-10 Texas Tech team will host a top-10 opponent on Saturday. The Red Raiders lost two such games back in the 1970s, but they won a pair in 2008. You probably remember at least one of them.
That’s the last time “College GameDay” was in town. It’ll be there Saturday. Hell yeah.
In this moment, with the Big Ten and SEC attempting to further distance themselves from the rest of the sport in terms of both money and power, BYU and Texas Tech in particular are trying to disrupt the party a bit. BYU was testing the boundaries of NIL possibilities right after NIL became a thing and is milking a large and monied fan base to solid effect in both football and basketball. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the most famous NIL billionaire in the game running television commercials and openly questioning the judgment of the sport’s most powerful individuals.
Oh yeah, and both teams are awesome this season. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, BYU is playing the most mature ball in the Big 12. The Cougars don’t always start games well, but they finish them strong, especially on the road — they ended on a 31-3 run against Iowa State and 24-7 against Colorado, and they scored late and then won in overtime at Arizona. They know that 60 minutes is a long time, they’re brilliant in the turnover, third-down and red zone departments on defense, and the offense gets both efficiency from the running game and big plays from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. And Bear Bachmeier, the aforementioned freshman QB, is up to 18th in Total QBR, ahead of former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff (now at Tulane), among others. Since a Week 2 semi-dud against Stanford, he ranks 11th.
I wouldn’t advise leaving things ’til late against Texas Tech, however, as the Red Raiders might have put the game away by then. Their eight wins have come by an average of 34 points, and their only loss, a last-second defeat at Arizona State, came without quarterback Behren Morton, who is listed as probable for Saturday.
This is a fascinating test for Bachmeier. Inexperience can strike when it’s least desirable, and if it’s going to hit Bachmeier, it will probably be in Lubbock, facing a unique and hostile crowd and a unique and hostile defense. The Red Raiders have forced 20 turnovers (second nationally) and three-and-outs on 44% of possessions (fifth). David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for 17.5 sacks, and Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. They rank in the top 20 in sack rate while rarely blitzing.
Bachmeier’s supporting cast is strong, with an experienced line, Roberts and Kingston out wide and running back LJ Martin next to him in the backfield. Some freshmen might get on the field because of certain elite traits, but they’re usually forced to learn how to overcome obvious weaknesses. For Bachmeier, his elite trait is his lack of obvious weaknesses.
Bachmeier’s accuracy is perhaps merely average — as represented by CPOE (completion rate over expected) in the chart above — but his well-roundedness is startling for a first-year guy. Against an elite Utah defense, he was able to grind out success, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback but throwing no picks and rushing nine times for 71 yards and a rugged, game-clinching 22-yard touchdown on third-and-11. But here comes an even bigger test. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will have to cope with a balanced and explosive offense featuring two high-end running backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) and a diverse receiving corps with five players between 21 and 41 receptions.
The winner of this one will head into the season’s homestretch with quite a bit of margin for error in the CFP hunt; the loser, however, will be right on the border. At 16th in SP+, BYU has what appears to be its best team since the glorious 2020 team that went 11-1 and ranked fourth. But this might be Tech’s best team ever. Four Red Raiders teams have finished in the SP+ top 10 — 1954, 2005, 2008 and 2009 (here’s your regular reminder that Mike Leach was a fantastic head coach) — but not one finished higher than eighth. Tech is currently fourth, and that’s with the ASU game dragging it down. The upside is immense, and Saturday, Lubbock will be the center of the college football universe.
Current line: Tech -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 2.7
A sloppy track in Iowa City
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That’s some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it’s pretty Oregon, too, isn’t it?
Tuesday’s CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. They’re awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they’ve played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice — Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don’t deserve to rank as high even though they’re clearly very good. It’s not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it’s not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history.
Regardless, Oregon is where it is, and the Ducks have a tricky homestretch, with ranked Iowa, USC and Washington teams to come. Iowa has been underrated all season — the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They’re 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn’t between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate).
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
They’re as reliant as ever on the run, but how they run is wonderfully unpredictable.
Here’s how to interpret that chart: Bigger dots mean higher frequency, and lighter dots mean higher efficiency. The dots are pretty much the same size, and the efficiency levels are solid across the board.
Now, once the Hawkeyes are behind schedule, they’re toast. But they’re averaging 2.56 points per drive; their best average in the past 20 years was 2.36 in 2008. That’s been more than enough for the typically awesome Iowa defense to take control. Ends Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett are spicy pass rushers, and the secondary gets the requisite ball-hawking from corners TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee and slot corner Zach Lutmer.
Of course, Oregon hasn’t shown us many weaknesses beyond an inability to beat a thus-far unbeatable Indiana team. Quarterback Dante Moore and the offense struggled against Indiana’s elite defense but have otherwise averaged 44.3 points and 7.8 yards per play. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and the Oregon defense struggled against Indiana’s elite offense but have otherwise allowed just 11.1 points and 3.9 yards per play.
We haven’t gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn’t beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less.
Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.
Will a top SEC team go down?
The SEC’s race isn’t as messy as the ACC’s or American’s, but we still have five teams pretty heavily involved: Per SP+, Alabama has a 33.2% title chance, followed by Texas A&M (30.1%), Georgia (16.1%), Ole Miss (11.3%) and Texas (7.8%).
The two front-runners are in excellent shape playoff-wise, but they have work to do this weekend. A&M visits Missouri — a team that had its own realistic CFP ambitions before losing quarterback Beau Pribula to injury two weeks ago — while Bama is a single-digit favorite against suddenly mysterious LSU.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Coaches and old-school commentators love telling you how important it is for an offense to stay on schedule. But unlike old-school views on things like fourth-down attempts or the dangers of passing, this is correct. Efficiency is vital in college football; it’s one of the reasons success rate is one of the key pieces of my SP+ ratings.
Staying on schedule might be just about all that matters in Columbia on Saturday. If we break things into standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) and passing downs (everything else), we see why pretty quickly.
When A&M has the ball
Standard downs success rate: A&M offense first (58.2%), Mizzou defense fifth (37.7%)
Passing downs success rate: A&M offense 88th (27.5%); Mizzou defense sixth (21.5%)
A&M is elite on standard downs. The Aggies’ running game is quite efficient, and quarterback Marcel Reed averages 9.7 yards per dropback on standard downs, completing 69% of his passes at 14.4 yards per completion and scrambling for nearly 10 yards a pop too.
Reed averages only 6.4 yards per dropback on passing downs, however, while his interception rate nearly doubles and his sack rate triples. Mizzou’s defense is sixth nationally in success rate allowed, and the Tigers generate pressure on 44% of dropbacks. Reed is elusive, but if Mizzou leverages the Aggies behind schedule, they’ll make a lot of stops.
That’s good, because they’ll be giving a true freshman quarterback (Matt Zollers) his first career start against an aggressive A&M defense.
When Mizzou has the ball
Standard downs success rate: Mizzou offense 28th (51.9%), A&M defense 28th (43.2%)
Passing downs success rate: Mizzou offense 15th (37.7%), A&M defense ninth (22.1%)
A&M’s defense is vicious on passing downs. Led primarily by Missouri native Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes, the Aggies rank second in sack rate. Nothing can rattle a freshman QB faster than constant pressure, so Mizzou has to hope that the combination of backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the running game and a quick passing game — albeit one that might be without tight end Brett Norfleet (listed as questionable) — can keep Zollers in favorable situations. He was a top-100 prospect, and he threw the ball pretty well filling in against Vanderbilt, but his passing has been mostly short and controlled.
That’s a tight radius of completions. At one point or another, Zollers will be asked to make tough throws to the sideline; if he can’t, A&M will crowd the box and make life awfully difficult.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 1.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4
LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2022, future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels outdueled former Heisman winner Bryce Young, and LSU knocked off No. 6 Alabama in overtime. With that result, the Tigers won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season in charge and reignited one of the defining rivalries of the 2010s.
Three years later, Kelly has been fired. He lost his last two Bama games by a combined 43 points, and he lost six of his last 14 games overall. His teams were never bad or even mediocre — unlike another Nick Saban-beating head coach who was recently fired (Auburn’s Hugh Freeze) — but he set the highest possible bar for himself and didn’t clear it. Interim coach Frank Wilson and the Tigers now are left looking to spoil a season or two down the stretch.
They’re still talented enough to do it. The LSU defense, fatigued from carrying a disappointing offense and suffering in the absence of star linebacker Whit Weeks, collapsed in Kelly’s final two games. But it’s still talented, and Weeks has been upgraded to questionable. The offense, now coordinated by former Florida State OC Alex Atkins, could benefit from the element of surprise, not to mention a week of rest for consistently battered quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers land some early haymakers, this could get weird.
Of course, at this point Bama is used to facing stiff challenges. They’ve defeated four ranked opponents, and they’re 3-0 in one-score finishes. Quarterback Ty Simpson remains a major Heisman contender, injured receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable, and the Tide probably will be ready for a fight.
Current line: Bama -9.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.9
ACC contenders try to avoid potholes
After last week’s ACC chaos, SP+ currently gives six teams a fighting chance at the conference crown: Louisville (28.0%), Virginia (25.6%), Georgia Tech (16.7%), Duke (11.3%), Pitt (8.4%) and SMU (8.0%). Even Miami is still at 2.0%.
This week doesn’t give us any head-to-head matchups between these contenders, but while Duke is off gallivanting with UConn in nonconference play, Pitt is on bye and Miami and Louisville are significant favorites, two contenders face semi-interesting tests.
Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Wake Forest had won three straight games before last week, but the Demon Deacons visited Florida State, absorbed all of the Seminoles’ bad mojo and laid a spectacular egg in a 42-7 loss. Every play seemed to feature miscommunication or a massive individual error.
Any remaining game in which that version of Wake shows up is an automatic loss, but the pre-FSU version could threaten a Virginia team that has flirted with disaster for weeks. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and the vice-favorite in the ACC, but they’ve won their past five games by an average of 4.8 points, three in overtime. They’re just 43rd in SP+.
Wake’s all-or-nothing offense has been mostly nothing of late, scoring 20 combined points in two games, but UVA’s secondary is vulnerable to “alls,” and receiver Chris Barnes is a solid downfield threat. You’re watching this for the other matchup, though. UVA’s offense and Wake’s defense are fun and explosive. The Hoos’ offensive line could struggle with an active Wake front — the Deacs are seventh in stuff rate and third in pressure rate — but backs J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are excellent after contact, and quarterback Chandler Morris is one of the best in the nation at escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. UVA is only 53rd in success rate but bumps up to 16th on third downs. Morris has been a godsend, and he and the Hoos tend to come through late.
Current line: UVA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 9.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 8.6
SMU at Boston College (noon, ACCN)
SMU just worked its way back into the ACC race with its upset of Miami; surely the Mustangs wouldn’t turn around and blow it against 1-8 Boston College, right? Probably not. But it’s worth noting that BC has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in back-to-back games, giving both Louisville and Notre Dame more resistance than expected. This is a long trip and an early kick, and if SMU doesn’t bring a certain level of energy, things could get awkward.
SMU’s offense has struggled at times, but the defense has surged despite a growing injury list. BC’s Bill O’Brien has lost faith in quarterback Dylan Lonergan, and though backup Grayson James usually offers more with his legs, he’s even less efficient passing, and he has been battling a hip pointer.
This is a just-in-case watch: BC could make it interesting, but it’s not incredibly likely.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.0
The Group of 5 game of the week
Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN)
While one-loss James Madison and San Diego State lurk, the American Conference champ will be very well positioned to snag the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot. There are currently six American teams with one conference loss; Memphis is one of them, as are each of the Tigers’ last three opponents — Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. This is a tricky homestretch, especially with quarterback Brendon Lewis‘ status uncertain after he suffered another lower-body injury against Rice. Backup AJ Hill was good late against UAB after Lewis exited, but this isn’t a great time to deal with QB uncertainty. Without accounting for Lewis, SP+ still gives the Tigers only a 32% chance of winning these next three games.
But Tulane’s recent form has to give the Tigers hope. After close calls a couple of times, the Green Wave finally found it with last week’s blowout loss at UTSA. After being as high as 38th in SP+, they’ve fallen to 66th, and while Jake Retzlaff and the passing game remain strong, the run game is inconsistent and the defense was lit up for 48 points and 7.6 yards per play in San Antonio.
Retzlaff should be able to find some success, but Tulane’s poor defense will have to make stops at some point, and Memphis’ skill corps is deep and diverse, with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. in the backfield and big-play receivers Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins out wide.
Current line: Memphis -3.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 13.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.2
Week 11 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to NC State’s win over Georgia Tech, we jumped back up to .500 (5-5) last week.
In the immortal words of Lou Brown in “Major League,” if we win today, it’s called two in a row. If we win again tomorrow, it’s called a winning streak. SP+ says there’s only a 42% chance that Virginia (73% win probability against Wake Forest), James Madison (80% against Marshall), SMU (84% against Boston College) and USC (86% against Northwestern) all win. Let’s take down a playoff (or at least ACC title) contender.
Week 11 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northwestern at No. 19 USC (9 p.m., Fox). USC’s playoff hopes might have remained alive because of an injury; the Trojans were trailing Nebraska 14-6 when Dylan Raiola went down and they rallied to a 21-17 win. Now they host a Northwestern team that lost to Raiola’s Huskers by seven the week before. Northwestern games feature no big plays for either team, and the Wildcats are built to muck this one up for a bit.
Current line: USC -14.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 17.5 | FPI projection: USC by 17.5
Early Saturday
No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN). Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It’s a thing they like to do.
Current line: UGA -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: UGA by 7.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 8.7
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (noon, Fox). Penn State became only the second team to hit 14 points against Ohio State last week, but the Nittany Lions’ defense succumbed to the Buckeyes’ big plays. Now comes another top-two opponent; outside of two SP+ top-20 opponents, Indiana has beaten mortals by an average of 53-9, and PSU looks awfully mortal. Will it matter that IU’s injury list is growing?
Current line: Indiana -14.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 10.9
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, BTN). Purdue has massively improved this season, but thanks to three recent one-score losses, the Boilermakers have lost seven in a row and are going to be significant underdogs in each of their last three games. Ohio State actually had to get a little aggressive against Penn State but looked great doing so. That probably says bad things about this matchup.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 (up from -28.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.1
James Madison at Marshall (noon, ESPN2). JMU has shifted into fifth gear of late, scoring 115 points and gaining 1,135 yards in its past two games to charge up the CFP contenders list. But the Dukes’ defense has grown a bit leaky, and Marshall has averaged 41 points over its past six games. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and the Herd are capable of throwing JMU’s playoff hopes for a loop.
Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 13.4 | FPI projection: JMU by 8.6
Southern Miss at Arkansas State (noon, ESPNU). Remember last year, when Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title with Marshall, then took the Southern Miss job and took a quarter of his roster with him? Well, his Golden Thundering Herd Eagles have won four games in a row to move to 6-2. ASU has also won four in a row, and the winner of this one will be a huge favorite to win the Sun Belt West.
Current line: USM -4.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 6.5 | FPI projection: USM by 2.8
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt (4 p.m., SECN). LSU isn’t the only SEC team hoping for an interim boost, as DJ Durkin takes over at Auburn. The Tigers still defend beautifully — 11th in defensive SP+ — but Vandy is averaging 23.3 points against top-15 defenses. Can Auburn score that much against any defense with a pulse at this point?
Current line: Vandy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 8.7 | FPI projection: Vandy by 5.7
Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has lost four straight, but three were by one score and the other was tied in the fourth quarter. TCU has won two straight to get to 6-2, but both were also by one score. The records don’t tell the whole tale here, but TCU’s run defense will probably render ISU inefficient, and quarterback Josh Hoover should find success against a tattered Cyclones secondary.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 4.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.3
Kansas at Arizona (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams rebounded from 1-3 stretches with comfortable wins last week, and both are a win from bowl eligibility after missing out last season. This one should be decided when KU’s Jalon Daniels drops back to pass: He remains efficient, but Arizona ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Fun matchup there.
Current line: Arizona -5.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.5
No. 23 Washington at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin plays its sixth game against an SP+ top-25 team, with two more to come. Washington puts up huge points against any less-than-elite defense, and Wisconsin isn’t elite at a damn thing. The Huskies are 6-2 and have a good chance to be 9-2 with win-and-you’re-in playoff hopes when Oregon visits for Rivalry Week.
Current line: Huskies -10.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 18.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 6.2
Stanford at North Carolina (4:30 p.m., The CW). UNC is overachieving against SP+ projections by two touchdowns per game over the past three. The key to the Heels’ turnaround? A defense that has turned good against the run and fantastic against the pass. Pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude is smoking hot and will probably get to know Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson awfully well.
Current line: UNC -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 9.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.0
Duke at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UConn has played ACC teams as if it were auditioning for a spot in the league, walloping BC and going to overtime with pre-collapse Syracuse. The Huskies make a ton of big plays, and Duke gives up just as many, so for the Blue Devils to avoid a nonconference upset they’ll have to take full advantage of a shaky UConn run front and a soft pass defense.
Current line: Duke -9.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 6.1
Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Miami has underachieved its offensive projections by 6.2 points per game over its past five; a total lack of big plays has removed the possibility of easy points, and Carson Beck‘s interception-prone tendencies (six in his past three games) have become a problem. Will any of this matter Saturday? Nope. Syracuse’s offense is 12 steps beyond terrible at this point.
Current line: Miami -28.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.8
Saturday evening
Florida State at Clemson (7 p.m., ACCN). Under Mike Norvell, FSU has struggled to course-correct when the vibes go south, but beating a solid Wake team by 35 might have offered quite the correction. Will there be a correction for Clemson this season? The odds of the 3-5 Tigers reaching even 6-6 this season are down to 39%, per SP+, and that number would plummet with a fifth home loss. Fifth!
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 0.8
California at No. 15 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2). Cal has done a nice job of taking advantage of a weak schedule, but the Golden Bears have lost to three SP+ top-50 opponents by an average of 37-14, and at 23rd in SP+, Louisville is by far the best team they’ve faced. That probably doesn’t bode well, though with star back Isaac Brown injured, the Cardinals might not take full advantage of Cal’s dreadful run defense.
Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 20.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 18.6
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has won its past six games by an average score of 39-15. The Irish meet an equally torrid Pitt next week, but first they must handle an all-or-nothing Navy team that moves the ball as well as ever but ranks 103rd in points allowed per drive. You can run into trouble against the Midshipmen, but it’s hard to shake the memory of last year’s 51-14 blowout.
Current line: Irish -25.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 17.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.2
Late Saturday
Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., Fox). I’ve almost never seen a disagreement between spread and SP+ projection as big as the one below. Dylan Raiola’s season-ending injury is the reason for the variance, but exactly how many points is a starting quarterback worth? Freshman backup TJ Lateef was a deer in headlights filling in against USC, but if he’s merely composed, Nebraska’s defense is good enough to make this a dogfight.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 4.7
San Diego State at Hawai’i (11 p.m., MW App). SDSU keeps creeping along as a playoff sleeper, having won six straight games by an average of 29-7. The Aztecs are second nationally in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, but when Micah Alejado is dealing, Hawaii is a handful. When Alejado throws for 300-plus, the Rainbow Warriors score 30-plus.
Current line: SDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.9 | FPI projection: SDSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 15 North Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). We have a pair of big in-state rivalry games in the Missouri Valley this week. Reeling South Dakota State desperately needs a win at No. 25 South Dakota, but one state up, North Dakota is looking for just its second Nickel Trophy win over NDSU in 20 years. (Granted, the rivals have played only six times in that span.) An upset would supercharge the Fighting Hawks’ playoff résumé, but we’ll see if any FCS team is capable of beating an absurdly dominant North Dakota State team that has let only one opponent stay within 17 points.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.5
Division III: No. 10 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., WIAC Network). First, the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference had a six-way tie at 2-1. Then four 3-1 teams paired off last week. And now, last week’s winners, both 4-1, pair off again. It has been a logistically perfect WIAC race, and now we get an upstart — UWRF, which hasn’t won an outright conference title in 40 years and destroyed longtime heavyweight Wisconsin-Whitewater last week — hosting the 2023 WIAC champ with two games to play.
SP+ projection: UWRF by 6.0
FCS: No. 14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 18 Lamar (4 p.m., ESPN+). Consider me surprised that Southeastern Louisiana is only 14th in the FCS polls. Dual quarterbacks Carson Camp (better passer) and Kyle Lowe (better runner) and the Lions have lost only to Louisiana Tech and LSU and have beaten seven FCS opponents by an average of 47-12. Lamar is 7-2 itself and does something rare in the Southland: defend. But SLU is the favorite for a reason.
SP+ projection: SLU by 9.0
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