NHL trade grades: Report cards on Gibson, Dobson, Peterka, more
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Ryan S. Clark
The NHL’s offseason is off and running, and the trades have been piling up since the Florida Panthers raised the Stanley Cup for a second straight season.
That includes Chris Kreider heading to the Anaheim Ducks, Trevor Zegras joining the Philadelphia Flyers and Noah Dobson being traded to the Montreal Canadiens. During Day 2 of the draft, John Gibson was traded to the Detroit Red Wings.
This page will be your home for report cards on every major trade this offseason, with the most recent deals first.
June 28: Gibson to the Red Wings
No, this is not a drill. After years of speculation, the Anaheim Ducks finally traded goaltender John Gibson.
The Detroit Red Wings landed Gibson, who was with the Ducks for more than a decade, in exchange for goalie Petr Mrazek, a 2027 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
Here’s a look at what the deal means for each side.
Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman had plenty of questions to answer this offseason after the club had missed the postseason for nine seasons. One of them is what he and his front office staff would do about their goaltending situation.
They tried different solutions in recent seasons. Ville Husso went from winning 26 games in his first season with the club (2022-23) to being traded to the Ducks during 2024-25. A tandem of Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot combined for a 0.899 save percentage, which is why the Wings traded for Mrazek before the deadline; he had a .902 save percentage in five games.
Lyon is an unrestricted free agent, whereas Mrazek and Talbot both had a year left on their contracts. It presented the possibly they could turn to Sebastian Cossa, their first-round pick from 2021, who finished with a .911 save percentage and a 2.45 goals-against average in the AHL. Some believe he could use another year of development as the Red Wings seek to avoid a 10th consecutive season without the playoffs.
Acquiring Gibson now provides them with a chance to have the stability that has eluded them. Injuries — along with the growth of Lukas Dostal — played a role in why Gibson was limited to 28 starts last season. But in that time, he won 11 games while registering a .912 save percentage — a strong figure compared to what the Red Wings experienced with their options in 2024-25.
The Red Wings could use Gibson and Talbot as a tandem while letting Lyon walk in free agency. The 31-year-old has two years left on his contract at $6.4 million annually, which also gives the Red Wings more time to develop Cossa in the AHL.
Per PuckPedia, Detroit now has $18.411 million in cap space to address a roster that has decisions to make regarding UFAs such as Patrick Kane and a three-player restricted free agent class that includes Jonatan Berggren.
Ducks GM Pat Verbeek had to eventually deal with the dynamic surrounding Dostal and Gibson. Building through the draft has been a significant aspect of the Ducks’ rebuild, and Dostal is one of the players who has embodied that movement.
In the past two seasons, Dostal grew from promising prospect to full-time NHL goaltender, with the 2024-25 season showing he could handle the demands of being a No. 1. The 25-year-old finished the season with 23 wins, posting a .903 save percentage in 54 games playing behind a promising but still mostly youthful defense that does include veterans Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba.
Dostal’s age, usage and his performances are all factors that make him vital to the Ducks’ present and future. They will also play a role in what his next contract could look like, given he is an RFA this summer.
It isn’t that the Ducks don’t have cap space. They most certainly do, and a lot of it, which is why they appear to be in play for every major name in free agency. But they also have three RFAs to sign in Drew Helleson, Mason McTavish and Dostal.
The same applies next offseason, when Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger will all be due for new contracts as RFAs still under team control.
Even with the cap space the Ducks possessed at the start of the offseason, they had a chance to create more. That’s part of the reason why they traded Trevor Zegras earlier this week. Trading Gibson, and the last two years of his deal, now pushes their cap space to $38.188 million, per PuckPedia, which is the second most in the league behind the San Jose Sharks.
June 27: Coyle to the Blue Jackets
In need of salary cap space, the Colorado Avalanche created some Friday by trading Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to the Columbus Blue Jackets.
In return, the Blue Jackets traded prospect forward Gavin Brindley, a 2025 third-round pick, and a conditional 2027 second-round pick to Colorado.
Let’s take a quick glance at what it all means for both teams.
The Avs secured a second-line center by signing Brock Nelson — added at the trade deadline — to a three-year contract extension worth $7.5 million annually. But that resulted in the Avs having just $1.2 million in cap space entering Friday, per PuckPedia. Given that the Avs have a six-player unrestricted free agent class — led by Ryan Lindgren — and it meant they needed to do something.
Coyle was one of the strongest candidates for a trade. His arrival at the trade deadline gave the Avs one of the best top-nine center dynamics in the NHL, behind Nathan MacKinnon and Nelson. But when a team is facing a cap crisis, does it make sense to pay a third-line center $5.25 million average annual value when there are more team-friendly options available?
Wood was another potential trade candidate, given he has four years left at $2.5 million AAV. Injuries and inconsistencies led to his scoring only 13 goals the past two seasons with the Avs — the same amount he had in his final full season with the New Jersey Devils.
But that also leaves the Avs needing to address their bottom-six forwards — in addition to possibly retaining Lindgren — along with anything else they seek to accomplish in free agency.
It’s possible Brindley could help with that at some point in the future. The 20-year-old was one of the top prospects in the Blue Jackets’ farm system, which is one of the strongest in the NHL. A second-round pick in 2023, Brindley scored six goals and 17 points in 52 games while playing his first professional season in the AHL. Before that, Brindley starred at Michigan, where he scored 25 goals and 53 points as a sophomore during the 2023-24 season.
At this point, the Blue Jackets have so much cap space that they can pick and choose what deals make sense. Especially if it involves working with a team that needs to create cap space like the Avs.
Coyle and Wood were a luxury in Colorado, but in Columbus they’ll strengthen the bottom six while allowing the front office to focus elsewhere in free agency.
Entering Friday, the Blue Jackets had six unrestricted free agent forwards, while Dmitri Voronkov is a restricted free agent. Adding Coyle gives them a third-line center with Sean Monahan and Adam Fantilli on the top two lines. Wood gives them a winger who can be used on the fourth line (or potentially higher); altogether, the Jackets now have 13 forwards who are either under contract or under team control as an RFA.
They also have more than $30 million in cap space, with the idea that some of that could be used on extensions for Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov.
Brinkley was one of their best prospects, but the Blue Jackets still have promising forwards in their system, including Cayden Lindstrom, Jordan Dumais and Luca Del Bel Belluz.
June 27: Dobson to the Canadiens
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Noah Dobson capitalizes on the power play
Noah Dobson capitalizes on the power play
Defenseman Noah Dobson was at the center of a trade Friday between the Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders with the idea that both franchises are heading in different directions.
The Canadiens got Dobson after he had signed an eight-year contract extension worth $9.5 million annually with the Islanders on Friday. New York got forward Emil Heineman and both of the Canadiens’ 2025 first-round picks, No. 16 and No. 17.
Here’s how both front offices performed and what it means for each side going forward.
If there’s an opportunity to get a 25-year-old, right-handed-shooting, top-pairing, puck-moving defenseman who can play in every scenario — who is also packaged in a 6-foot-4 frame — that’s a move a GM should make.
But, it’s done with the full understanding that it’s going to cost quite a bit, and that’s what makes the decision by Canadiens GM Kent Hughes one that’s rather emphatic because of what it signals about his team.
Specifically, Montreal is serious about making its 2025 playoff appearance a regular occurrence, with the goal of winning a Stanley Cup in the near future.
Future. That’s the word at the heart of what this trade represented for the Canadiens. Having two first-round picks is a benefit. For teams in a rebuild, it’s a chance to build toward what they believe is a stronger future, while playoff teams — or those on the cusp — use them as trade chips to acquire someone who can make them better now.
Hughes took the latter option with this deal, and it provides Montreal with what appears to be one of the more enticing young defensive setups in the NHL.
Dobson, who has scored 10 or more goals in four straight seasons, adds to a group of young Canadiens defensemen that includes reigning Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle and Jayden Struble. The Habs also have recent first-round picks Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher in their system.
That’s six defensemen all younger than 25. Four of them are first-round picks, while the remainder were second-round selections (including Hutson). This is what’s called a problem. Or rather, it has the potential to create a problem because of what that collection could achieve over time.
But then there’s the actual “problem” facing Hughes now that he has Dobson under contract, in that the Habs are now $3.394 million over the salary cap (per PuckPedia), while having seven defensemen under contract or team control for 2025-26.
It’s going to force Hughes to decide which defenseman Montreal moves on from to clear cap space, while also having the necessary group to make the aforementioned playoff push. Veteran Mike Matheson has one year left on his contract at $4.88 million before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, while Alexandre Carrier has two years remaining at $3.75 million annually before he hits the open market.
Getting that situation handled sooner rather than later allows the Habs to gain more financial flexibility should they want to do more, although they also have a pair of RFAs in Struble and Jakub Dobes who are in need of new deals.
New Islanders GM Mathieu Darche spent six seasons in the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s front office, allowing him to appreciate the value of certain items. One of them is the value of building a long-term winner through the draft.
GMs running lottery teams need to have a level of honesty and understanding about the direction of their franchise. That’s what makes anything the Islanders do in Darche’s first offseason even more critical.
That’s not to say that Dobson couldn’t have been part of those long-term plans on Long Island. But there’s also something to be said for identifying the strongest possible value a player has for your franchise, and determining that this value is greater with a return like one that Darche got here.
What Darche received in exchange for a top-pairing defenseman in Dobson will play a significant role in shaping the Islanders for the next decade, if not longer.
Having the No. 1 pick was a starting point toward that future — and it’s likely he’ll add talented defenseman Matthew Schaefer with that pick. But by now adding two more first-round picks, he has even more options.
Darche and his staff might decide they want to keep both picks they acquired from the Canadiens, and draft three players. After all, they would be adding more to a system that, despite having 2024 first-rounder Cole Eiserman, is in distinct need of talent. Part of the reason for that is that the Isles have had four draft classes since 2018 (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) in which they did not have a first-round pick.
Or will Darche look to repackage one or both of those picks in another trade, with the hope of doing something else he and his staff believe can set them up for even greater success over the long term?
Although the future is in focus, there’s also something to be said about the present and what it means now that Dobson is gone. The Islanders now have five defensemen under contract, and seven who are under team control, with a pair of pending RFAs in Scott Perunovich and Alexander Romanov. Tony DeAngelo and Mike Reilly are UFAs from the 2024-25 roster.
The Islanders have $20.934 million in cap space (per PuckPedia), which can be used to address their defensive needs along with whatever else they need to handle this summer; that includes re-signing Heineman, who is an RFA after scoring 10 goals and 18 points in 62 games during his first full NHL season.
June 26: Peterka to the Mammoth
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JJ Peterka lights the lamp for Sabres
JJ Peterka lights the lamp for Sabres
Two of the storylines to watch this NHL offseason were whether the Utah Mammoth could add at least one top-six forward to their roster, and if the Buffalo Sabres would part ways with restricted free agent JJ Peterka.
Wednesday night or early Thursday, depending upon the time zone, those narratives collided, with the Mammoth acquiring Peterka in a trade with the Sabres, with forward Josh Doan and defenseman Michael Kesselring going to western New York.
Let’s look at how both front offices performed in this swap, as well as what it means for each franchise moving forward.
In 2024-25, the Utah Hockey Club was a top-10 team in terms of shot share, shots per 60 minutes rate, and scoring chances per 60 — but finished 16th in goals per game. So there was a disconnect. With $20.357 million in salary cap space, a solution needed to be found for that problem.
And so the latest significant move for Mammoth GM Bill Armstrong? Landing Peterka in trade, then immediately signing him to a five-year extension worth $7.7 million annually.
Since Ryan and Ashley Smith purchased the franchise and moved the team to Salt Lake City, the Mammoth have taken a strategic yet aggressive approach. It started last year when they traded for a legitimate No. 1 defenseman in Mikhail Sergachev along with John Marino as part of a plan to revamp their blue line.
Peterka is a continuation of that need to take another big swing. In doing so, the Mammoth add a 23-year-old proven goal scorer who not only addresses their need for more goals but also fits into their long-term plans. After scoring 28 goals and what was then a career-high 50 points in 2023-24, Peterka responded with 27 goals and 68 points in 77 games in what would be his final season in Buffalo.
Trades can often be about creating more options for a team, and Peterka gives the Mammoth quite a few. They now have a top-six winger group that also includes Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Nick Schmaltz. That amounts to a quartet of 20-goal scorers to play with centers Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton, who also scored more than 20 goals last season, anchoring those top two lines.
Armed with what’s considered to be one of the strongest farm systems in the NHL, the Mammoth didn’t have to part ways with any of their top prospects to get Peterka. They still have Matias Maccelli — who they could seek to move one from in another trade — and still have $14.982 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
Nick Bjugstad and Michael Carcone are their most prominent unrestricted free agents, while Jack McBain remains their lone restricted free agent. After landing a difference-maker at No. 4 overall in the draft on Friday — or using that pick to acquire another NHL-ready player instead — they’ll be able to use the majority of that remaining cap space to be active in free agency on July 1.
The most apt word one could use to describe what Sabres GM Kevyn Adams received in return for Peterka? Complicated.
Generally, a 23-year-old top-six forward who remains under team control is going to hypothetically attract a certain price. In some ways, the Sabres were able to get that by receiving a pair of NHL players in Doan and Kesselring. But there’s an argument to be made that the Sabres didn’t receive enough.
Missing the playoffs for the past 14 seasons has left the Sabres in the space between trying to end that drought, while having one eye on the future in case plans need to change (again). Although the Sabres do have one of the stronger farm systems, the Peterka trade presented an opportunity for them to add more — whether it be through draft capital or prospects.
That’s especially true when the player at the center of the deal was so important to the Sabres, given he was second on the team in points, third in goals, third in power-play points and third in ice time among forwards with more than 70 games.
It’s not like Adams walked away with nothing. Doan could carve a place as a top-nine forward. Joining the Sabres is a chance for Doan to find the consistency that eluded him in Utah. He played 28 games in the AHL last season in addition to the 51 games he played for the Hockey Club.
Kesselring gives the Sabres a third right-shot defenseman on their roster. He finished with more than 20 points, while logging more than 70 games, in consecutive seasons. He was also sixth among Mammoth defensemen in average ice time; like Doan, he could see a greater role in Buffalo.
Doan and Kesselring give the Sabres depth. They are also going to cost the club a combined $2.325 million in cap space, with both players having a year left on their respective contracts before restricted free agency. The Sabres now have $20.881 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
Yet it still results in this question: Was a bottom-six/middle-six forward and a middle-pairing (at best) defenseman enough of a return for a top-six forward? Or should Adams have gotten more for a player that is addressing one of the Mammoth’s biggest needs, while leaving themselves in need of filling a sizable hole in the roster?
June 23: Zegras to the Flyers
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The highlight reel Trevor Zegras is taking to Philadelphia
With Trevor Zegras being shipped to the Flyers, relive some of his top plays from his last season with the Ducks.
Rumor finally became reality Monday with the Anaheim Ducks trading forward Trevor Zegras to the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Ducks moved Zegras, who has long been discussed as a potential trade target, to the Flyers for forward Ryan Poehling, a 2025 second-round pick (originally belonging to the Columbus Blue Jackets) and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
What does it all mean, and how did both front offices fare?
“Potential” is the word that’s going to be used the most to describe this trade.
It starts with the fact that Zegras gives the Flyers another top-nine center in addition to what they already have with Sean Couturier and Noah Cates, with the idea that Zegras has the potential to become their top-line center.
Zegras is a two-time 20-goal scorer who has also authored a pair of consecutive 60-point seasons. That could give the Flyers, who finished 24th in goals per game, another player who can score while creating opportunities for those around him.
At 24, he also potentially fits within the Flyers’ long-term plans. The Flyers were the NHL’s youngest team in 2024-25, with an average age of 26.09 years, according to Elite Prospects.
Again, the key word here is potentially.
Injuries and inconsistencies over the past two seasons created questions as to whether Zegras could return to becoming the player who had those consecutive 60-point seasons back in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Further, they led to inquiries about whether he’d return to or surpass those totals while remaining the Ducks.
Surrounding Zegras with wingers such as Tyson Foerster, Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov and/or Owen Tippett could get him back on track. After all, at one point Zegras was among the league’s breakout stars and looked as if he was going to become one of the future faces of the NHL. He was chosen as the cover athlete for NHL 23.
Then there’s the added incentive that Zegras is in the final season of a three-year contract worth $5.75 million annually. He will remain under team control as a restricted free agent for the next two seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2027-28 campaign.
Even after taking on Zegras’ salary, the Flyers will still have $15.141 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
For all the questions the Ducks faced about holding on to Zegras, there appeared to be a rather large one looming:
Is it prudent to pay a third-line center more than $5 million annually when there are cheaper options available and other roster holes to fill?
Leo Carlsson — the No. 2 overall pick from 2023 — showed he could handle the demands of being a full-time, top-line center. He scored 20 goals and 45 points last season, giving the Ducks a two-way center packaged inside a 6-3, 205-pound frame.
Follow that with Mason McTavish, who was the No. 3 draft pick in 2021, scoring 22 goals and a career-high 52 points in a second-line center role.
McTavish led the Ducks in goals last season and finished second in points. Carlsson was third on the team in points. Getting that sort of production out of their top two centers made Zegras expendable for Anaheim.
Then there are the financial ramifications. Anaheim is projected to have a little more than $36 million in cap space this season, which appears to be quite a bit, and it is — until one looks at the future and how GM Pat Verbreek must tread carefully. Lukas Dostal, Drew Helleson and McTavish are restricted free agents in need of new contracts this offseason. Those deals will likely shape what necessary funds the Ducks possess to be active in unrestricted free agency starting July 1.
Looking at what they could do next offseason, however, is what made the trade more enticing. Zegras was slated to be part of a six-player RFA class that includes Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe and Olen Zellweger, while Jacob Trouba will be an unrestricted free agent then.
That five-player RFA class and Trouba remain in place, so those decisions will have to be made. But instead of having to worry about what to pay Zegras, the Ducks could have a much lower price point to deal with when it comes to Poehling, a 26-year-old who scored 12 goals and 31 points in 2024-25. He has one year remaining on his contract worth $1.9 million before he becomes a UFA next summer.
June 12: Kreider to the Ducks
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Chris Kreider traded to the Ducks
Take a look at the stats and notes to know after the Rangers dealt Chris Kreider to the Ducks.
Could this be the start of something more?
That question could be asked of both the Anaheim Ducks and the New York Rangers after the first major trade this offseason. On Thursday, the Rangers sent Chris Kreider and a 2025 fourth-round pick (Anaheim’s own, previously acquired in the December 2024 Jacob Trouba trade) to the Ducks for center prospect Carey Terrance and a 2025 third-round pick (Toronto’s, acquired in the Feb. 2024 Ilya Lyubushkin trade).
Here’s a glance at what this means for both franchises along how they each performed.
There was a need to create salary cap space. There were the questions about production. There was also the fact that the Rangers could find a replacement elsewhere.
All told, there were many reasons that influenced the Rangers’ decision to move on from Chris Kreider.
Kreider scored 20 or more goals for the seventh straight season and for the 10th time in his career. That consistency is what came to define Kreider, but it became one of the reasons a move out of New York seemed likely.
Kreider turned 34 in late April, at the end of a season in which he scored 22 goals; however, that was a decline from what he had done the past three years. He scored 36 or more goals in each of the last three seasons, while averaging 69 points per campaign in that time. He finished with 30 points in 68 games this season, for a 0.44 points-per-game average.
With two years left on his contract worth $6.5 million annually, it became a numbers game for the Rangers.
Star goaltender Igor Shesterkin signed a new contract that starts in 2025-26 that ramps up his annual salary from $5.67 million to $11.50 million. There were also the series of in-season trades that Rangers GM Chris Drury made to get Will Borgen and J.T. Miller that led to them taking on an additional $12.1 million per year; Borgen signed a five-year extension worth $4.1 million annually, and Miller is entering the second of a seven-year pact in which he’ll earn $8 million annually.
This left the Rangers needing to find solutions to address a seven-player restricted free agent class led by K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones, Matthew Robertson, and Will Cuylle.
That’s not to say there aren’t questions about how they’ll replace Kreider’s production.
It’s what made the spring signing of Boston College star winger Gabe Perreault important, because it gives the Rangers a potential top-six option on a team-friendly deal, while allowing them to create the necessary space to address that RFA class — on top of everything else they may seek to achieve this offseason.
The Rangers now have $14.922 million in cap space after shedding Kreider’s contract, per PuckPedia. That provides the front office with more financial flexibility than it initially possessed, with the notion it might not be done.
Adding Terrance, who signed with the Ducks in April, brings a center prospect to a system that appeared to need one. Their strongest prospect down the middle, Noah Laba, signed with the club after three seasons at Colorado College, while Dylan Roobroeck’s first full professional campaign included 20 goals in the AHL.
Terrance, who was a second-round pick in 2023, had his third straight 20-goal season for the OHL’s Erie Otters; overall, he finished with 39 points in 45 games. He also represented Team USA at the IIHF World Junior Championships, where he had two goals in seven games before sustaining an injury.
Rebuilds are all about ending up in a better place, with the notion that all of them take a different path to reach that desired destination. The Kreider trade is a signal that the Ducks are remaining steadfast in an approach that has served them well so far, with the belief it could lead to them either reaching the playoffs or at least be in the wild-card discussion in 2025-26.
For all the conversations about how they have drafted and developed, the Ducks have also made a concerted effort to insulate that homegrown young core with respected veterans. It’s a veteran group that includes Radko Gudas, Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano, and Krieder’s former Rangers teammate Jacob Trouba.
So what does this mean for the Ducks’ top-nine winger setup? Kreider adds to a group that has Sam Colangelo, Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, Killorn, and Vatrano. Not only does it provide the Ducks with goal scorers in general, but also with players who can grab those goals in a variety of ways.
And this is what makes the Ducks either fascinating — or terrifying — depending upon the perspective. Ducks GM Pat Verbeek just took on a forward with a $6.5 million cap hit, and PuckPedia projects he still has more than $32.188 million in available space.
This is what could make Katella Avenue a destination come free agency on July 1.
Of course, Verbeek must act responsibly. Lukas Dostal, Drew Helleson and Mason McTavish, who are part of the Ducks’ young core, are each pending RFAs that need a new contract. Then there’s what lies ahead next offseason, when Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, Trevor Zegras, Olen Zellweger, and Gauthier will all need new deals at the same time.
Possessing that much young talent on cheap contracts creates financial flexibility. It’s why they were able to add Kreider for the price of a draft pick and a prospect in Terrance, who was expendable because of their center situation in the NHL and Lucas Pettersson, their second-round pick in 2024, in the system.
Ever since their rebuild started, the Ducks have been a franchise that’s been about trying to make progress by any means necessary. They’ve developed one of the NHL’s most promising farm systems in that time, and cultivated an expectation for their prospects. All the while, they’ve known when to make the moves like the one that got them Kreider.
Now what?
Finishing with 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season has them at a critical point. It’s part of the reason why they moved on from head coach Greg Cronin after two seasons to hire Joel Quenneville with the premise that they feel they can go further.
Because that’s what it means to play in the gauntlet that has become the Western Conference. For all the established contenders like the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche, there are still other teams that can carve a path.
The Seattle Kraken did it in their second season back in 2022-23. A year later, the Vancouver Canucks did it in their first full season under Rick Tocchet in 2023-24. This season saw the St. Louis Blues return to the playoffs, while the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club pushed until the latter stages of the regular season.
Anaheim finished 16 points out of the final Western Conference wild-card spot. But the gradual improvement the Ducks have shown — along with the fact they have made two of the bigger moves this offseason, believing they could do more — could see them knocking on the door to the postseason, or kicking right through it.
Sports
From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
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