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Elon Musk said just a few weeks ago that betting on Tesla delivering its promised Robotaxi in June is a “money-making opportunity,” and yet, those who listened to him just lost big.

A fan of Musk lost $50,000 betting on Tesla Robotaxi.

With the rise in prediction markets, you can bet on virtually everything these days.

Sites like Polymarket have about a dozen prediction markets related to Tesla, where anyone can bet on events such as Tesla delivering its robotaxi service.

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There have been a couple of specific markets about that, and Musk directly commented on one titled “Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?:

Less than two weeks ago, the market gave Tesla only a 14% chance of launching the service, and Musk called it a “money-making opportunity.”

At the time, less than $500,000 was traded on this market, but Musk made it way more popular.

Now, over $7 million has been traded on this market, and while Tesla claims to have launched its Robotaxi service on June 22nd, the market currently gives Tesla less than 1% chance today, with less than a day left in June.

Each prediction market has clear “resolution” rules and Musk evidently didn’t read them before suggesting there was money to be made betting “yes”:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly launches a fully driverless taxi service by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Any service that allows a member of the general public to summon and ride in a Tesla vehicle operating without any human—onboard or remote—actively controlling the vehicle will count. A human may be present in the vehicle or monitoring remotely for emergency intervention, but they must not be physically positioned to take control (for example, no safety driver in the driver’s seat) and must not actively steer, brake, accelerate, or otherwise drive the car under normal operation.

A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify. Regulatory permits or approvals, press demonstrations, and prototype unveilings without live public ridership likewise will not count toward resolution.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

There are a few things in the resolution that disqualify what Tesla launched on June 22nd. First off, there’s a human inside the vehicle ready to take control with their finger on a kill switch. We have already seen interventions from the in-car Tesla supervisor, who are still very much necessary.

Secondly, the resolution requires a launch that is not restricted to an invite-only basis, which is currently the case.

The level of remote operations could also prove challenging to confirm, and it is part of the resolution.

Electrek found someone who lost $50,000 following Musk’s “money-making opportunity”:

Someone else has lost $28,000 and is now betting another $27,000 that Tesla will achieve this by the end of July.

Currently, Polymarket‘s odds only put a 21% chance of Tesla delivering on the service based on the previously mentioned resolution before August:

There’s another market predicting if “Tesla launches unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) by the end of 2025” that has arguably an even more restrictive resolution, and it currently gives it a 59% chance of happening:

With Polymarket, users are not really “betting” on an outcome, but they are trying to beat the current odds by buying shares in “yes” or “no”, which they can sell to other users before the end of the timeline.

Electrek’s Take

It’s quite amusing that Musk was so confident people would believe in his Robotaxi that he didn’t bother to investigate what other people think an actual robotaxi service would entail, like in the Polymarket resolution.

Historically speaking, you are way better off betting against whatever timeline Musk claims about self-driving. He has been consistently wrong about it for a decade now.

Polymarket even has a market about Tesla launching unsupervised self-driving in California this year. I threw some money in that one because California has much stricter regulations when it comes to self-driving, and it requires a lot of testing before being deployed, as described in the resolution.

I doubt Tesla can go through that this year, but it’s not impossible.

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Mercedes-Benz tops 28,500 car hybrid battery test — THIS brand came in last

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Mercedes-Benz tops 28,500 car hybrid battery test — THIS brand came in last

When it comes to battery longevity, it appears that brand matters. A recent study published by Germany’s ADAC revealed tangible, real-world differences in how the high-voltage batteries in PHEVs age across manufacturers. The results: Mercedes’ batteries came out on top, Mitsubishi trailed behind.

A recent study by the German motoring group ADAC (think of it as Germany’s equivalent of America’s AAA) and data analysts at Austrian battery firm AVILOO analyzed more than 28,500 state-of-health (SoH) measurements from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) across six years and several vehicle brands. While the study found that battery degradation for most brands remains within a range consistent with an average vehicle lifespan, it turns out that one of the strongest predictors of battery longevity was the brand of vehicle tested.

In other words: not all hybrid batteries are created equal, and it seems like you really do seem to get what you pay for with batteries from traditionally pricer brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volvo out-performing those from mainstream car brands like VW, Ford, and Mitsubishi. Here’s how ADAC broke it down:

In terms of brand comparison, Mercedes-Benz models generally show very stable battery performance up to a mileage of 200,000 kilometers. This contrasts with Mitsubishi, whose PHEVs already exhibit significant degradation even at low mileages, although this stabilizes somewhat over the course of their lifespan.

Battery degradation in vehicles from the Volkswagen Group and Volvo remains within an unremarkable range even with higher proportions of electric driving. BMW models show a noticeable variation across the entire field, depending on electric usage. In Ford models, battery capacity decreases remarkably early, regardless of the specific user group. However, predictions regarding battery condition at higher mileages are not possible due to the limited number of tests.

ADAC | GOOGLE TRANSLATE

So, what are the big takeaways here, besides the notion that more expensive products tend to be built better than cheaper ones? It seems like most PHEVs are maintaining more than 80% of their batteries’ SoH after 200,000 km (~120,000 miles), with some of the higher-performing batteries doing significantly better.

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Still totally fine


Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
2024 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV; via Mitsubishi.

Again, the ADAC results shouldn’t be interpreted to mean that the Mitsubishi PHEV models aren’t perfectly serviceable, reliable offerings – just that some cars that cost a lot more than the Mitsubishi tend to have batteries that last a little longer under typical driving conditions.

ADAC also adds that, if frequent electric-only trips are on your agenda (as they are on mine), a fully battery-electric vehicle may be the smarter pick, as their batteries go through fewer charging cycles and tend to last longer than PHEV batteries as a consequence.

At the end of the day, it’s a straightforward choice: align your powertrain with your intended daily use, and your battery will have an easier, longer, and healthier life.

SOURCES: ADAC, AVILOO; via Motorpasión.


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First look at Honda’s new full-size electric motorcycle

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First look at Honda's new full-size electric motorcycle

At EICMA 2025, Honda finally pulled back the curtain on its first full-size electric motorcycle with the first-ever public unveiling of the Honda WN7. As someone who’s followed the electric motorcycle space for over a decade, I’ve been waiting a long time to see Big Red bring some serious voltage – and it looks like that moment has arrived.

The WN7 isn’t just a compliance bike or a modest scooter like we’ve seen for years from Honda – it’s a legitimate full-size motorcycle, albeit still a commuter motorcycle and not something you’d likely want to take on a cross-country trip.

Designed as a naked street bike in Honda’s “FUN” category, the WN7 features a peak output of 50 kW (67 hp), putting it in a similar performance class to a 600cc internal combustion motorcycle. With 100 Nm of torque, it even rivals liter-class bikes in terms of torque off the line, promising quick acceleration and agile city or highway handling.

Honda’s development team leaned into the EV strengths with a design philosophy they call “Be the wind.” The goal is apparently a ride experience that’s quiet and immersive, letting you hear the world around you while still delivering that satisfying EV torque hit.

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Visually, the WN7 sports a sharp silhouette and a horizontal LED light bar up front – a design element Honda says will become the face of its entire electric lineup. It also features a new colorway exclusive to Honda’s EVs: a black body accented with golden mechanical components.

One of the most interesting engineering decisions is the frameless chassis. Instead of a traditional motorcycle frame, Honda uses the rigid aluminum battery case itself as a central structural element, connecting both the front steering head and the rear swingarm pivot directly to it. This design not only cuts weight but also improves handling by centralizing the mass. It’s a move we’re seeing more frequently, having been employed by other electric motorcycle makers such as LiveWire as part of their S2 Arrow platform.

Honda’s powertrain includes a new liquid-cooled motor with a built-in inverter, delivering its power to a belt-drive rear wheel through a newly designed gearbox. It’s quiet, clean, and torquey – just what you want in a commuter or light touring bike.

The moderately sized, fixed 9.3 kWh battery supports both CCS2 fast charging (20% to 80% in 30 minutes) and Type 2 charging, with a claimed range of 140 km (87 miles) per charge under WMTC standards. Riders also benefit from regenerative braking with customizable deceleration levels, as well as a slow-speed walk mode for precise parking assistance.

No word yet on pricing or exact market release dates, but Honda says the WN7 will be produced in Japan and rolled out in regions “where electrification is advancing.” Perhaps that could be a clue about its entry, or lack thereof, in North America.

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The “Anti Tesla” deal: Polestar 3 gets an $18,000 incentive offer for November

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Polestar may not yet be a household name, but these makers of objectively excellent, sporty EVs with Scandinavian sensibilities are doing everything they can to change that — including offering killer post-rebate deals set to take the fight to Tesla.

CarsDirect is reporting a MASSIVE $18,000 lease incentive on the sporty Polestar 3, which starts at around $67,500 for the Long Range Single Motor model and goes up to approximately $79,400 for the Long Range Dual Motor. For those of you like to see the math, that pencils out to ~25% discount from MSRP.

Nationally, the 2025 Polestar 3 features a $18,000 lease incentive. Customers who lease a 2025 Polestar 3 through Polestar Financial Services will receive the brand’s $18,000 Clean Vehicle Noncash Incentive. Customers who buy a 2025 Polestar 3 with cash or through standard financing can get $10,000 Polestar Clean Vehicle Incentive cash towards the purchase.

All Polestar 3 EVs currently offer 0% APR for up to 72 months on purchases plus a $7,500 financing bonus. This is the lowest rate we’ve seen since the vehicle’s launch, and it is now among the best 0% financing deals on an SUV.

CARSDIRECT

The EV deals don’t stop there. Polestar is offering both lease and finance customers who happen Costco members can get another $1,000 off the Polestar 3, making the Swedish/Chinese crossover one of the most compelling new car deals in the business.

Polestar 3 | For the money


Make the switch to Polestar. Save up to $20,000 on a Polestar 3 lease as a Tesla owner.
Polestar 3 showroom; via Polestar.

If you decide to take Polestar up on their offer, you’ll be getting a genuinely sporty five-seat entry-luxe SUV with a big battery and real, road trip-ready range.

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In the US the entry Polestar 3 Long-Range Single Motor (RWD) model starts at the previously-mentioned $67,500 MSRP (pre-rebate), and offers a 111 kWh battery pack good for an EPA-rated range of up to 350 miles. The top-shelf Performance-spec Polestar 3, meanwhile, offers an all-wheel-drive dual-motor setup that Polestar rates at 380 kW (~517 hp) that will launch you across suburbia with a 0–60 mph time in the 4 second range, albeit with slightly less range than the base model: “just” 275–315 mi, depending on wheels/trim.

The other thing a Polestar 3 offers is a bit of neutrality. Polestar hasn’t been shy about what it views as an “opportunity” to snatch up car buyers who want to distance themselves from Elon Musk and the political polarization that’s now associated with the Tesla brand.

The company’s CEO, German auto industry stalwart Michael Lohscheller, told Bloomberg, “For Germany, somebody outside of Germany endorsing right-wing political parties is a big thing. You want to know what I think about it? I think it’s totally unacceptable. Totally unacceptable. You just don’t do that. This is pure arrogance, and these things will not work.”

He’s hoping enough people agree to move the needle on Polestar sales in the US – and the first step to that is for consumers to get behind the wheel of this “masterfully tuned and sneaky-fast SUV,” and see if it’s a fit for them.

One thing is certain, though: at $18,000 less — the Polestar 3 is a lot more likely to be a fit for their budget than it was before! You can find out more about Polestar’s killer EV deals on the full range of Polestar models, from the 2 to the 4, below, then let us know what you think of the three-pointed star’s latest discount dash in the comments section at the bottom of the page.

SOURCE: CarsDirect; images via Polestar.


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