Fantasy hockey impact: Mitch Marner, John Gibson and more
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Sean Allen
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Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
- Sean Allen is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. He was the 2008 and 2009 FSWA Hockey Writer of the Year.
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Special to ESPN.com
- Victoria Matiash is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. Victoria has been a part of the fantasy team since 2010.
It’s set to be a busy offseason in the NHL, as free agents are free to sign with new teams starting on July 1. Mitch Marner, Sam Bennett and Nikolaj Ehlers are among the top names who are expected to hit the market, while many more players could be available by trade.
If you’re looking for an edge with your fantasy hockey teams, knowing how roles change and which prime spots will open up is crucial to evaluating risers and fallers before your drafts.
Check back here regularly with each new free agent signing and trade, and their expected fantasy impact.
NHL Offseason HQ: Team needs | Dynasty rankings | Draft rankings
Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights: The now-former Maple Leaf is poised to score more goals on a top line and power play with play-making center Jack Eichel, while again amassing 90 to 100 total points. Which slightly enhances Marner’s fantasy value in leagues that reward putting the puck in the net at a premium. An increase in shots on net can also be anticipated from the 28-year-old winger. Even in leagues where goals and assists are valued equally, Marner remains must-draft once the fantasy elite are off the board.
More interestingly is how this sign/trade deal (with depth forward Nicolas Roy landing in Toronto) might affect Mark Stone. Should Marner supplant the veteran on Eichel’s flank as anticipated — it’s difficult to see Vegas stick their new $12-million player on a second line — Stone is due to see a decrease in production at even-strength. Couple that potential shift with the oft-injured skater’s unreliable durability, and he projects to regress as a performer after averaging 2.1 fantasy points/game this past season in ESPN standard leagues. Meanwhile, either Stone or Pavel Dorofeyev — Tomas Hertl less so — appears the likeliest candidate to drop to the secondary power play in making room for Marner on the primary unit. Best guess today is Dorofeyev, who racked up 17 power-play points this past season.
In Toronto, GM Brad Treliving now has a significant hole to fill up front following Marner’s exodus to the desert. While whoever ends up skating on a top line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies is going to score, this particular figure might not even be part of the organization as of early July 1st. Considering newbie Matias Maccelli, or any other current Leaf forward, doesn’t strike as an ideal full-time substitute for Marner, fantasy managers should keep a close watch on who else joins the organization this summer. –Matiash
Vladimir Tarasenko to the Minnesota Wild: After averaging only 2.74 goals/game in 2024-25 — 25th out of 32 teams — the Wild are gambling on the former prolific sniper to return somewhat closer to form from his earlier years. Averaging 0.86 points/game, heavy on goals, from 2013-14 to 2023-24, Tarasenko put up a paltry 33 through 80 contests with the Red Wings this past season, while logging only 14:47 in ice-time. A more prolific role in Minnesota, perhaps on a second line and power play, should result in a bump in production, especially if the 33-year-old returns to his shooting habits of old.
That Tarasenko is entering the final year of his current contract also plays a factor. Such extra incentive to prove he can still contribute in a valuable manner certainly won’t hurt. Fantasy managers who could benefit from a 60-point player in deeper leagues might consider rolling the dice on the winger, just as GM Bill Guerin is doing, late in autumn drafts. Contingent, of course, on where he appears to fit in Minnesota’s lineup in camp. –Matiash
John Gibson to the Detroit Red Wings: There’s little question, after (finally) being dealt away from the team that drafted him back in 2011, Gibson is set to re-earn the bulk of starts in the crease. At least through 2025-26. Almost 38 years old, Cam Talbot has a single year ($2.5-million) remaining on his contract. Prospect Sebastien Cossa is likely in for another season, for the most part, with Grand Rapids. Trey Augustine, all of 20 years old, is returning to Michigan State for a third turn. If healthy — an enduring concern — Gibson should be counted on for around 55 starts with his new squad. As such, sussing out which version of the long-time Duck netminder we’ll see in Detroit is the greater challenge for fantasy managers.
One of the league’s best goalies to start his career, Gibson boasted a 119-77 record, .921 SV%, and 2.42 GAA from game one through 2018-19 in Anaheim. Then matters went south, in no small part due to the lack of support out front. However, the 12-year veteran is coming off a bit of a Renaissance with an improving Ducks squad in 2024-25, posting a .912 SV%, 2.73 GAA, and 9.71 Goals Saved Above Average (Evolving Hockey) through 29 games. If he can replicate those figures with a Red Wings team that arguably compares in quality to the one he’s leaving behind, while enjoying a significant increase in playing time, Gibson could serve as a top-15 fantasy netminder in most conventional leagues. Again, if he stays reasonably healthy.
Going the other way, Petr Mrazek projects to serve as backup to current RFA Lukas Dostal. The 25-year-old proved capable of serving as a No. 1 this past season, and would have enjoyed greater success had his teammates provided more support. Only the Sharks and Predators scored fewer goals than the Ducks in 2024-25. But with the further growth of young skaters like Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, plus the addition of veteran Chris Kreider, Anaheim is on the upswing. All unfolds as anticipated, Dostal could finish in the top-20 in fantasy points in ESPN standard leagues by season’s end. –Matiash
Noah Dobson to the Montreal Canadiens: Despite a substantial relapse in production in 2024-25 after erupting for 70 points the previous season, Dobson still averaged 2.0 fantasy points/game in ESPN standard leagues. Not too shabby, all considered. Fantasy managers should anticipate a similar rate with his new team in Montreal, where the 25-year-old will be counted on to skate heavy minutes at even-strength, while competing on the secondary power play. Assuming reigning Calder winner Lane Hutson continues to anchor the primary unit. Even without putting up sparkling scoring numbers, Dobson serves as a well-rounded performer who shoots on net often and blocks shots with regularity. He should be drafted accordingly, depending on league size.
On the Islanders, Dobson’s absence opens up the opportunity for No. 1 draft selection Matthew Schaefer to take over the reins as the top power-play anchor. Should the teen crack the lineup, which is hardly guaranteed. A situation that deserves close monitoring through camp and the start of 2025-26. –Matiash
JJ Peterka, to the Utah Mammoth: While Peterka is undoubtedly on the rise — having crested into fantasy relevance at just 23 with 1.72 fantasy points per game in 2024-25 — it’s not unthinkable he sees fewer key minutes with the Mammoth. After averaging 18:11 per game with the Sabres, including 2:54 on the top power-play unit, he may have to do more with less on a suddenly crowded depth chart. For Peterka to top last season and become a true fantasy difference-maker, a spot on the top power play is essential. With Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley arguably locks, Peterka needs to secure the final forward spot. His jump of 11 power-play points from 2023-24 was the catalyst behind his breakout, so that deployment matters. The future remains bright in keeper leagues, as Peterka is locked into a core that should be fantasy-friendly for years to come. Dynasty managers should boost his value accordingly. Going the other way to the Sabres, both Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan could offer situational value for 2025-26 depending on their usage. Their rate stats suggest fantasy upside if they get the minutes, but no need to draft either, as they’ll be waiver material early on.
Evander Kane to the Vancouver Canucks: After missing the entirety of the 2024-25 season, Kane showed he was still effective enough for fantasy consideration in the Oilers run to the Stanley Cup final. He earned 1.7 fantasy points per game across 21 playoff contests — borderline relevancy in standard leagues. That was without a ton of access to “McDraisaitl” (Leon Draisaitl was fifth among Kane’s teammates at forward for shared minutes at five-on-five, while Connor McDavid was seventh). With the expectation that Brock Boeser is moving on from the Canucks and pending other offseason moves, Kane might be the best option for scoring from the wing the Canucks will have going into the season. That could push him back into a fantasy role, especially if he secures the time with a (hopefully) rebounding Elias Pettersson and time on the power play (which he wasn’t getting a lot of in Edmonton). –Allen
Mason Marchment to the Seattle Kraken: Marchment is the type of fantasy pickup that can be useful in streaks if he has the right linemates. The Kraken are the ideal environment for that type of winger, as the lineup is built around depth, not star power. So, arguably, Marchment could find himself anywhere from the third line to the first line depending on how the deployments shape up. (Alternatively, you could argue any of the Kraken top three lines is its first or third.) The trouble is that his ceiling is capped by minutes, which may still hover around 15 per game, unless he lucks into an assignment alongside Matty Beniers. He has shown Selke-like ability, so if you still use plus/minus in your league, Marchment’s appeal — top 20 among forwards across the past four seasons — improves. –Allen
Trevor Zegras to the Philadelphia Flyers: If you are at the end of your draft and your starting lineup is built out, there are worse players to take a … ahem … flier on than Zegras in a new home with the Flyers. The hype level surrounding Zegras has come a long way since his “Michigan”-fueled rookie season, but how much of the lost luster can be attributed to his surroundings and injuries? The glass-half-empty outlook would point out that his surroundings aren’t significantly improved with a move to the also-rebuilding Flyers. But if we are viewing the glass as half full, surely he can’t run afoul of injury luck for a third consecutive season. Zegras missed 76 games over the past two seasons, and his fantasy production cratered. Even when he played an 81-game season in 2022-23 and averaged 18:49 per game, he only posted 1.65 fantasy points per game — not good enough. Zegras will be jockeying with Sean Couturier and Noah Cates for center minutes, but the opportunity is there. With wingers like Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny to play with, the upside remains. –Allen
Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.
The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.
Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
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