
NHL draft grades: From the excellent (Islanders, Hurricanes) to the confusing (Maple Leafs)
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Rachel DoerrieJun 29, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The 2025 NHL draft that took far too long has mercifully finished. Any of the 26 teams that voted to hold a decentralized draft, you get a Z grade for that. Not an F, a Z. Let’s never do that again. Back to centralization, please.
Every team is getting a draft grade, regardless of how many players they selected. The grades are based upon the value each team extracted with their picks. So, a team with three first-round picks might have a lower grade than a team with three total picks because they reached on players and could’ve added significantly more talent to their organization, while the team with three picks added value and talent with each selection.
The grade is weighted against the expectation of what teams could reasonably have done with their selections based on my model and team need. Reaching on a player to address a team need while leaving a higher-value player on the board is going to lower the grade. When a team is drafting in the top 16, it is because that team wasn’t good enough for the playoffs and the organization needs talent. Ditto for teams with multiple first-round picks — those aren’t acquired unless valuable players are being traded away for purposes of rebuilding or retooling.
Trade scenarios will be considered, because it is a good strategy to accumulate value by moving down, or acquiring players that fit the organizational timeline. A team that trades back, acquiring multiple selections and extracts value with those selections will likely be graded higher than a team that traded up to select its “guy.” A team like the Montreal Canadiens, who traded multiple picks to acquire and extend a top-4 defenseman in Noah Dobson will have that factored into their grade because they entered the draft with those assets and used them to acquire an asset that aligns with their organizational goals.
Here is every team’s grade for the 2025 draft:
‘A’ grades
For Day 1 alone, the Islanders are getting an A+. If there were a higher grade possible, they’d be getting it. It’s incredible to add a franchise defenseman in Matthew Schaefer who will not only impact the organization positively through his play but is likely to become a future captain. However, it was also the trading of Noah Dobson, who was not going to re-sign, and using those selections to nab the falling Victor Eklund and potential middle-pairing defender Kashawn Aitcheson that boosted the grade.
The Isles didn’t overthink anything. You have to hit on your first-round picks, and every time they made a selection, they took quality players who confidently project to be impactful. There’s a real chance the Isles added a franchise cornerstone, a top-six forward with a blend of hard and soft skill, and a tough-to-play-against defender with raw offensive potential.
On Day 2, GM Mathieu Darche continued stockpiling projectable NHL talent. Daniil Prokhorov has the potential to become a high-end power forward, and Luca Romano should play NHL games in a middle-six role. Tomas Poletin is a reasonable bet on upside and Burke Hood in the late rounds is excellent value. This could be a franchise-changing draft for the Islanders.
The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some interesting decisions at the top of the draft, and managed to secure their top-line center for the future — and the third best player in the draft — in James Hagens. The Bruins have needed help up the middle for a few years, and Hagens is not far off from becoming an NHL star. He was one of the most valuable picks in the draft, simply because players with his talent and skill aren’t available at No. 7 very often.
Following that up by drafting Will Moore and Cooper Simpson were value picks in their range, and both have legitimate NHL upside. They will take longer to get to the NHL, but I like Boston’s accumulation of talent in the draft with those two as well as Liam Pettersson on the back end. There’s a fair chance Boston gets four NHL players from this draft, including one potential star on their top line.
1:48
Adam Sandler announces Bruins pick at NHL draft
Adam Sandler gives a nod to his famous “Happy Gilmore” character to announce the Bruins picking Boston College’s James Hagens with the seventh pick.
I feel like we say this every year, but my goodness the Carolina Hurricanes did it, again. They got tremendous value in their trade back with the Canadiens, using those picks to draft two projectable NHL talents in Semyon Frolov and Charlie Cerrato. Frolov’s stock grew as the season progressed, and he has a real chance at becoming a 1B goaltender in a tandem. Both Ivan Ryabkin and Kurban Limatov provided a ton of value at their spots, and both have legitimate paths to becoming NHL players. Ryabkin in particular could become a real gem if he improves his consistency.
In the late rounds, I loved the Filip Ekberg and Viggo Nordlund selections as both are smaller, but highly skilled wingers with scoring potential in the NHL. There’s a boom-or-bust quality to both of them, but if they hit, there’s top-six scoring upside and those are exactly the types of players you should be swinging for in the late rounds. It’s likely the Canes have to wait a few years for these players to have an impact, but they should get at least two or three from this draft class.
Any time you add the best forward (Michael Misa) and best goalie (Joshua Ravensbergen) in the draft, you’re going to be happy. There’s a real chance the Sharks come away with a starting goalie and an elite forward who scores over a point per game. That alone, would find them graded with at least a B+. Add in Simon Wang, the highest-drafted Chinese-born player in NHL history, with elite skating ability and a 6-foot-6 frame, and the Sharks bolstered every area of their prospect pool.
I thought Blake Fiddler would have been a more sound selection at No. 33, but the Sharks like Wang’s raw ability and upside which is a decision I can get behind. If Wang hits, he’s going to be an impactful defender in the NHL that many teams wish they’d drafted.
Getting Cole McKinney at No. 53 was great value as well. McKinney’s got more offense to give and at a minimum, he’ll be a bottom-six player who is reliable defensively and on the penalty kill. When all is said and done, there’s a real chance the Sharks get four players from this draft, including a dual-threat, two-way center who is going to make the Sharks a matchup nightmare for teams over the next decade.
Getting Roger McQueen, a player with top-five talent, at No. 10 is tremendous value for the Ducks. They add another big, powerful forward to their stable of young players, and McQueen’s skill set is elite. If McQueen hits his ceiling, the Ducks have a unicorn, and someone who could dominate on both sides of the puck.
Eric Nilson in the second was another valuable selection. He’s a reasonable bet to become a bottom-six contributor whom the Ducks rely on to play secondary matchups and responsible defensive hockey. Elijah Neuenschwander is a more than reasonable bet in goal, and getting him in the late rounds adds to his value.
The Ducks likely added at least two quality NHL players to their organization and got good value all over the board, while finally trading John Gibson — the rumors can end.
Note: If there were bonus points for synergy, the Ducks would be getting an A+ for drafting McQueen, sending him to Disneyland and doing a photo op with Lightning McQueen. Here’s hoping he wears No. 95 because the fun marketing opportunities would be plentiful.
Not only did the Flames address organizational needs with this draft class, they got significant value with the Cullen Potter and Aiden Lane picks, while getting Cole Reschny and Theo Stockselius in the right range. All of those players are going to need development time, but are reasonable bets to play NHL games.
Reschny and Potter are high-end upside picks with NHL attributes who could see them make an impact in the middle six. The Flames needed centers, and there’s a decent chance that at least two of these players provide value at center for them. If Potter moves to the wing, he may flourish as a speedster with an excellent shot.
I liked the swing on Aiden Lane late in the draft, as he’s a late bloomer who has some bottom-six upside. The Flames extracted a ton of value with their selections this weekend and should be pleased with their new group of young talent.
There’s a lot to like about what the Red Wings did this weekend, and they likely nabbed at least two long-term NHL players in Carter Bear and Eddie Genborg. Bear was good value in the teens, and brings a projectable two-way game with high-end playmaking skills. As an added bonus, he has some of the coveted hard skill teams were looking for because he plays in the dirty areas, wins puck battles and creates space for his teammates. He’s two or three years away but should be a quality top-six forward when he’s ready.
I liked the Genborg selection as a good middle-six player who thrives with skill. He’ll be a good complementary player when he’s ready.
Once the top goalies were gone, I really liked the swing on Michal Pradel. The Red Wings aren’t short on goaltending prospects, and he’s another guy who has a chance to be an NHL goaltender. Count me as a fan of the Michal Svrcek pick in the fourth round because of his upside as a speedster with competitive bite. Add in the John Gibson trade — which gives the Red Wings immediate help — and they had a pretty good weekend.
The Predators were a mixed bag for me in this draft. Did they get some high-end talent? Absolutely. Did they leave some high-end talent on the board? Unequivocally.
I understand betting on Brady Martin and why so many teams liked him, but Nashville is starved for elite talent and left James Hagens and Porter Martone on the board. If Martin hits, he’s a valuable playoff player, but there are not many scenarios where he’s more valuable than Hagens or Martone.
I loved their swing on Ryker Lee, who could be an elite top-six forward if his skating improves. His offensive tool kit is one of the draft’s best. Cameron Reid in the 20s was solid value, and he’ll be a quality middle-pairing defender for years. I really liked the Jacob Rombach and Jack Ivankovic selections, too. The Preds needed a goaltender and if Ivankovic grows, he has the foundation of talent to be the best goalie of the crop.
Strap in because this one was a ride!
The Flyers needed a center, passed on Hagens, but got Porter Martone. I love Martone’s game and think he has a ton of potential, but it feels like they went with size. Having said that, I’m not going to dock them grading points because Martone at No. 6 was excellent value. If his skating improves, he’s going to be a star.
The decision to trade up to No. 13 and select Jack Nesbitt not only left a ton of value on the board from a player perspective, but the Flyers lost the pick value trade to their state rival. Nesbitt will be a solid third-line center, but I have some serious concerns about the Flyers drafting for size with a lower ceiling.
Outside of that, I loved the Carter Amico, Jack Murtagh, Shane Vansaghi and Matthew Gard picks. The Flyers clearly had a mission to get bigger and meaner, because every pick was spent on a player with some level of size and competitive meanness that Rick Tocchet is going to love. The Flyers certainly got a lot better this weekend, but there is little doubt that some talent was left on the board.
2:00
Charles Barkley announces Porter Martone as No. 6 pick in NHL draft
NBA Hall of Famer Charles Barkley helps the Flyers select Porter Martone with the sixth pick of the NHL draft.
The Kraken got a lot better this weekend, particularly with their first two picks. Jake O’Brien projects as an offensively gifted top-six playmaking center. Seattle has a ton of quality young centers and whether they move one or two to the wing or trade one to address another need, the Kraken are well positioned because they constantly draft the best available players.
Blake Fiddler is another example of that, with the Kraken grabbing a first-round talent in the second round. He’s very likely to be a middle-pair defender who plays shutdown minutes. Not only does Seattle address an organizational need, it gets excellent value.
I liked the Will Reynolds and Maxim Agafonov picks as well. Both have some NHL-caliber traits and are worthy swings where the Kraken took them. Overall, another good draft for Seattle.
I loved what the Jets did with their draft capital. Adding Sascha Boumedienne to a prospect pool that is razor thin on defense was tidy work. He’s mobile, saw significant development in his defensive play and should become a quality middle-pairing defender and PP2 guy if his decision-making improves.
Viktor Klingsell was a high-value addition when the Jets grabbed him. He was one of the best skilled players taken in the late rounds, and that’s exactly the type of player you take in the fifth. If he fills out, there’s a middle-six player in there.
I also really liked the Owen Martin and Jacob Cloutier picks. Martin plays a pro-style game that should see him develop into a depth player, while Cloutier is a home run hack at a smaller player who is highly competitive and could be a nice addition if his skating improves. The Jets got good value with all their picks, swung on talent and improved their prospect pool.
‘B’ grades
The Blackhawks clearly had a modus operandi here, and it was “big dudes who can skate.”
I liked Anton Frondell at No. 3, but they definitely left talent on the board with Hagens to opt for Frondell’s size. He’s likely going to be a top-line forward, so you can’t be too upset with that organizational decision.
Both Vaclav Nestrasil and Mason West were a little high for my liking, but both of them are very raw, long-runway type projects with sky-high upside. Given the prospect cupboards, Chicago can afford to take those kinds of swings because both of them could end up as middle-six complementary players who are incredibly difficult to play against. At a minimum, they bet on big guys with skill, and I can get behind that.
Nathan Behm and Julius Sumpf provided good value at their respective slots, and I think there’s a chance that one of them plays NHL games. Certainly, the Blackhawks should get two or three NHL players from this crop of picks, but their development staff is going to be tested.
The Canadiens had themselves a weekend. Trading away the selections that amounted to Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson to acquire Noah Dobson fit their timeline, but that may turn out to be a hefty price.
They love Alexander Zharovsky and it is easy to see why, but gave up quite a bit of pick value to get him. Nevertheless, I like Zharovsky’s game, and he should be a quality complementary player in the middle six.
In the middle rounds, I absolutely loved the selections of Hayden Paupanekis, Bryce Pickford and personal favorite — L.J. Mooney. All of those players have legitimate NHL upside to varying degrees. Mooney is small, but his compete level and offensive abilities provided outstanding value. Paupanekis should become a bottom-6 player and Pickford is a great bet on an overage defenseman with scoring ability.
All in all, it’s hard not to be happy with the weekend, even if they parted with some very valuable assets to get their guys.
Friday night was a banner night for the Senators. Trading back two spots and acquiring the pick that allowed them to trade for Jordan Spence while extracting tremendous value with Logan Hensler at No. 23 is high-end asset management. I really like Hensler’s game and believe he has the tools to become a solid second or third defender who would complement Jake Sanderson very well. The fact that he’s right-handed and very mobile with an NHL frame makes him very valuable.
The Senators are thin in goal, and taking a swing on Lucas Beckman was a decision that made a lot of sense. Bruno Idzan is a high-upside bet, and a worthwhile one based on his USHL production. He has the potential to be a late bloomer who contributes in a depth role.
The Capitals extracted excellent value with their first two picks in the draft, and both players are solid bets to become middle-six contributors at the NHL level.
Lynden Lakovic has the potential to be a big, dual-threat producer and would be even more exciting if he learns to use his 6-4 frame to physically impose himself on opponents. The ceiling is high for Lakovic, and getting a top-15 player at No. 27 is good work.
Milton Gastrin is one of the more complete players in the draft and shouldn’t be far off from the NHL. He’s got third-line center written all over him and could provide more offense than most think.
Outside of that, I liked the selection of Maxim Schaefer, who has more skill than most of the players taken in the fourth round. Given what they had, the Caps got good value and came away with at least two players who should play impactful roles in their lineup.
The Kings had a fine draft — nothing to be overly excited about and nothing to be disappointed with, either.
They got some value with Jimmy Lombardi, who has projectable NHL play-driving ability and skill. If his speed improves, he could really pop. Petteri Rimpinen was another value-added pick in the late rounds, and worth the swing based on his development curve. Kristian Epperson provided value in the third round as an overager, and should fit nicely in a third-line role when he’s ready.
Henry Brzustewicz was a fine pick, but the Kings took him a little early considering some of the other valuable defensemen on the board at No. 31. They’re betting that his development skyrockets in London, which they’ll need if he’s going to provide value in a second-pair role. Vojtech Cihar was a bit rich for me in the second round because he lacks upside, but I don’t doubt he’ll be an NHL contributor in the bottom six.
The Wild didn’t give Judd Brackett a lot to work worth, but there was value to be had with their selections.
There’s more offense to give with Theodor Hallquisth, and next season in the SHL will go a long way to determining what his NHL projection is likely to be. At minimum, he’s a reliable puck mover who has the tools to be a depth defender if his skating improves.
The real value came from selecting Adam Benak, who is one of the best skaters and smartest players in the draft class. But he’s small, so of course he fell. He was by far the most skilled player available in the fourth round, and if he grows a couple inches, he has the special talent to be a top-six player. I liked the Justin Kipkie selection; he was one of the best overage defensemen available in the draft and a worthwhile bet.
The Devils were a mixed bag, drafting guys with good value and a few head-scratchers — including a player who didn’t play a single game this season (Sigge Holmgren).
I loved the Ben Kevan selection at the end of the second round. He’s a great skater with good offensive qualities. Conrad Fondrk was another good upside bet with good passing and shooting skill. Both could become valuable members of a third line that contributes offensively.
I liked the Mason Moe and Gustav Hillstrom selections as well. They have a longer path to becoming NHL players, but both are good bets and decent value for the draft slot. The Devils did well for what they had.
Wes Clark loves to take big swings and he did it again. I absolutely love Benjamin Kindel as a player; he has real upside as a top-six forward, but I’m not convinced he’s going to be better than some of the players they left on the board. Trading down to acquire a third first-round pick was great, but again, value was left on the board.
There is little doubt Bill Zonnon is going to be an NHL player. He was in the right range and should be a valuable middle-six asset. I thought the Penguins could’ve traded back with the Will Horcoff pick, but I understand why they like him. If he hits his ceiling, he’s going to be a solid complementary player in the middle six. Failing that, he’s likely to top out in a depth role.
On Day 2, the Pens got excellent value in Charlie Trethewey, who could blossom into a fourth or fifth defender with excellent puck movement. Peyton Kettles and Quinn Beauchesne were two other selections I liked, and both have legitimate NHL upside.
Given the Mammoth’s stated goal of adding size and tenacity up front, it was not surprising to see them draft Caleb Desnoyers. I would’ve elected for Martone if size was their goal, because he’s got higher offensive upside, but Desnoyers is a solid bet to become a second-line, two-way center. He’ll shoulder all the matchup pressure and free up the likes of Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton to play offensively. It’s a very understandable pick for the Mammoth.
I loved the selection of Max Psenicka in the second round. I think he’s got a higher offensive upside than he’s given credit for, with potential to become a quality shutdown defender on the second pair. Their other selections don’t project to be NHL players, but the first two selections should be stalwarts in their lineup for years to come.
They didn’t have a lot to play with, but I loved the Jakob Ihs Wozniak and Mateo Nobert selections. Ihs Wozniak has one of the best shots in the draft and should score 20-25 goals per season in the NHL. Trading up to get a prospect who will have value around the league (before they inevitably trade him) is smart business. Getting a player with high-30s talent in the late stages of the second round is quality value.
Nobert is another offensive talent and could become a quality complementary player down the line. He was a more than reasonable bet in the third round. For what they had to work with, the Golden Knights should be happy with how they fared.
The Blue Jackets addressed a need and got great value by adding Jackson Smith in the middle of the first round. If Smith’s offense continues to develop, there’s a real chance the Blue Jackets drafted the second-best defender of the class much later than he should have gone.
The Pyotr Andreyanov pick was a head scratcher — not because I don’t believe in his potential, but because he wasn’t the top goalie on the board, and the Blue Jackets could have traded back to get him. Trading back would’ve been best if they wanted a goalie. They had an opportunity to grab the likes of Lakovic and Hensler, who would’ve been great organizational fits. Andreyanov is five or six years from playing in North America, which is a long time to wait for a first-round pick, but upside as a 1B starter is attractive.
I also think the Malte Vass selection provided value.
2:50
Johnny Gaudreau’s wife announces the Blue Jackets’ draft pick
Meredith Gaudreau, Johnny Gaudreau’s widow, joins the NHL draft to announce the Blue Jackets selecting Jackson Smith with the 14th pick.
The Dallas Stars’ ability to get a top-40 player despite not selecting until pick No. 94 is very Dallas Stars of them.
Cameron Schmidt, who had more than 40 goals in the WHL, is one of the best goal scorers in the draft. But he’s short, so teams decided to draft players with lower upside and projectable talent. He’s a quality skater, and players with two separating skills are almost never available at that spot. If Schmidt hits, we’re going to be talking about how the Stars “did it again” just like they did with Logan Stankoven.
Outside of that, the Stars had nothing to write home about. The selection of Schmidt alone provided the highest value in the draft from ranking and projection to selection, something the Stars are all too familiar with. At some point, the skill and upside need to outweigh the height, because too many taken before him are far less likely to become NHLers.
For what the Blues had to work with, they got some good value. I loved the selection of Justin Carbonneau at No. 19. If he puts it all together, he could be a premier power forward in the NHL with his size, skill and ability to create scoring opportunities. He has some of the best upside in the draft and could be a quality top-six forward for the Blues.
They didn’t select until much later on Day 2, but I liked the Mikhail Fyordorov selection as a reasonable bet given his production in the MHL. He’s got a long way to go, but his offensive creativity is exactly what the Blues should be swinging for.
The Canucks’ draft was fine. They left value on the board to take Braeden Cootes, but he’s going to be a solid middle-six contributor and addresses the organization’s pressing need for centers. They tried to trade that pick for immediate help, but in the end, Cootes was right in that range.
I loved the selection of Alexei Medvedev, a pick that has Ian Clark’s fingerprints all over it. He’s big and moldable and has the mental makeup to be a tandem goalie in the NHL.
In a departure from previous years, the Canucks used most of their picks on players with scoring profiles and skill, something their prospect pipeline needs. They made reasonable bets on upside picks in the middle rounds who will test their development staff. They left value on the board with Kieren Dervin and could’ve swung on Schmidt or Mooney, but overall, it was a reasonable draft.
‘C’ grades
Buffalo had a modus operandi that was quite a bit different from previous drafts, and it showed.
Radim Mrtka is a reasonable bet to play top-four minutes in the NHL and fits the profile of big and hard to play against. That was a bit high for him and left significant talent on the board, but the Sabres clearly identified Mrtka as an organizational need.
David Bedkowski was a good selection as one of the most violent, physical defenders in the draft, and if he makes it, he will fill a depth role and be a nightmare to play against. There’s a real chance that those are the only players who play NHL games for the Sabres in this draft class, as they departed from their previous MO of drafting high-end skill.
For a team that didn’t have any high picks (or many picks at all), I liked the swings the Oilers took, particularly on Tommy Lafreniere and David Lewandowski. They don’t have strong NHL projections by any means, but betting on their upside is a smart thing to do. I had those players going earlier than they did, giving the Oilers good value with their selections. If either Lafreniere or Lewandowski hit, they should provide complementary scoring in depth roles, something the Oilers will absolutely need while their contention window is open.
I debated docking the Oilers for not outbidding the Red Wings for John Gibson and addressing a significant organizational need, because the probability of Gibson helping the Oilers out in their contention window far exceeds the probability of any draft picks doing the same. With Joel Hofer re-signing with the Blues as well, the Oilers are going to have a tough time improving an area that desperately needs immediate help.
This entire grade hinges on Malcolm Spence, who provided tremendous value for the Rangers in the second round. There is little doubt he will become a middle-six pest, and if the Rangers can sort out their development issues, he’s got the chance to be a second-line winger.
Sean Barnhill is a fine selection, but probably a little high. There’s NHL potential there with his skating, but he’ll need to improve his decision making to be a depth NHL defender. I liked the swing on Mikkel Eriksen. He could fill a depth role and at least become a quality AHL player. The Rangers left value on the board at every other selection.
There’s not a ton to write home about when it comes to the Lightning’s draft class, but I really liked the Ethan Czata selection. Lightning fans love Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel, and Czata is built in that mold. He’s got good touch around the net, and if he adds speed, has all the tools to become a pesky middle-six contributor who is a nightmare to play against because of his physical nature.
I liked the swing on Benjamin Rautiainen because if he fills out, he’s a brilliant shooter with good puck skill. If he hits, he’s got the potential to be a complementary scorer in the NHL. Outside of that, he’s likely a high-end AHL player who can fill in when injuries occur.
‘D’ grades
When you win back-to-back Stanley Cups, you’re probably not going to have an elite draft because you don’t have many picks.
I’m a fan of the Shamar Moses pick: I think he provides value at that spot with an outside chance to play NHL games. The Panthers are unlikely to get NHL players from this crop of prospects, but the Moses pick bumps their grade up because he has an NHL projection in a depth role, something the Panthers will need if they intend to keep their contention window open for the next few years.
They didn’t have many picks, and I didn’t love what they did with any of them. I thought they left talent on the board with each of their selections and didn’t take any players with an NHL projection. Given their contention window and few draft picks, I would’ve liked to have seen them swing on higher upside, because contenders need to hit on those players to keep that window open longer.
Francesco Dell’Elce has a chance to be a depth defender, but as an overager, his development runway is shorter. It’s probable the Avs don’t get any NHL players from their draft, with Dell’Elce being the only one with an outside shot at bottom-pair minutes.
It seems like the Maple Leafs hired one of the best talent evaluators in hockey, but then gave him an edict instead of letting him cook. GM Brad Treliving has made it very clear that he wants size in this lineup, but the Leafs left far too much skill and upside on the board to accomplish that.
There is a very real possibility the Leafs got one depth NHL player (Tyler Hopkins) from this draft class, and that’s it. A lot of the players they selected are very raw, with size being their best attribute. When you leave players like Behm, Limatov, Thretheway, Mooney and Schmidt on the board who have legitimate NHL upside in valuable roles, it feels like a choice.
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Sports
College Football Playoff picks after Week 4
Published
4 hours agoon
September 21, 2025By
admin
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Sports
Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 4: There’s a new No. 1
Published
4 hours agoon
September 21, 2025By
admin
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
Sports
Manning gets ‘swagger back’ as Longhorns roll
Published
5 hours agoon
September 21, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Sep 21, 2025, 12:39 AM ET
AUSTIN, Texas — Arch Manning passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns in his sharpest game of the season so far as No. 8 Texas cruised to a 55-0 win over Sam Houston on Saturday night.
Manning was 18-of-21 passing and also ran for two first-half touchdowns. He connected with Ryan Wingo for touchdowns of 53 and 13 yards in the third quarter before leaving the game with Texas (3-1) leading 45-0.
“It felt good,” Manning said. “I wish I could have done that the last [three] weeks. But I’m glad we did it tonight … Got the ball in my guys’ hands and let them go to work.”
Manning needed a confidence-builder after a poor start to the season and got one against the overmatched Bearkats (0-4). His passes looked crisp and decisive, and after his first touchdown run of the game, he stood and flexed over a defender before a game official broke them up.
His Texas teammates were glad to see it.
“He got his swagger back,” Texas senior safety Michael Taaffe said. “Everybody knew that it was in there. What he showed tonight is what we expect.”
Manning said he worried he’d get a taunting penalty, and that he quickly apologized to the game official.
“Probably a little much there. My mom was pretty mad about it,” Manning said. “I think it was some built-up frustration for the past few weeks.”
Manning had come into the game completing just 55% of his passes. The preseason betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy had promised several times during the week that he would start playing better. At one point Saturday night, Manning completed 14 passes in a row.
“When he plays a little looser and he’s free, that’s the best version of Arch,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “He got going and started throwing the ball. Started using his legs. You could feel the bounce in his step on the field.”
Manning said he won’t concern himself with the national chatter about him this week, or the critics who dismissed him after the first few games.
“I’m not really worried about what anyone thinks of the narratives. I’m just trying to play ball, get wins. That’s most important, especially going into SEC play. Right?” he said.
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