Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q2 deliveries: here’s what to expect
Tesla (TSLA) is about to release its Q2 2025 delivery and production results. Here, we examine what Wall Street expects and what would make sense in reality.
Wall Street has struggled to understand Tesla’s decline in deliveries over the past year.
The analyst consensus for the first quarter was over 450,000 deliveries in January, but that number dropped to 377,000 deliveries by the end of the quarter.
They had to adjust down by 73,000 units, or about $3 billion in sales, over just two months, and they still got it wrong by more than 40,000 units.
Something similar is happening this quarter.
The Wall Street consensus was for 444,000 deliveries in April, indicating that analysts believed Tesla when it stated that the poor performance in the first quarter was solely due to the Model Y changeover and that it could return to growth or maintain demand, as it had delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles in Q2 2024.
However, that consensus waned throughout the quarter as data confirmed that Tesla is not production-constrained, yet still faces significant demand issues.
The Wall Street consensus for Tesla’s Q2 deliveries is now at 385,000 vehicles.
This represents a 13% decline year-over-year, despite Tesla currently offering record discounts and incentives, including 0% financing on both the Model 3 and Model Y in most markets.
However, it is likely that analysts are again overestimating deliveries.
Electrek’s Take
We have great data in Europe and China, where Tesla is basically down by a few thousand units despite the new Model Y being widely available during the second quarter.
The only primary market with limited data for the second quarter is the US.
The US is likely where the new Model Y had the biggest positive impact, and Tesla will need to perform well there for deliveries to surpass its Q1 2025 results.
The automaker has no chance at annual growth in the second quarter, but based on the best data available, I think it should end between 330,000 and 360,000 units – way below the current analyst consensus.
The lower end of the spectrum would result in a massive 25% drop in annual deliveries, while the higher end would result in a still significant 19% drop.
There’s no other way to cut it: Tesla’s automotive business is in crisis.
The crazy thing is that Wall Street is completely missing this story and only adjusting for the decline throughout the quarter.
At the end of the first quarter, analysts still expected Tesla to avoid a decline in deliveries in 2025, with approximately 1,850,000 vehicles.
The consensus now stands at 1.6 million units, which is still likely too high by 100,000 units, representing billions of dollars in sales.
Furthermore, they predict that Tesla will experience a resurgence in growth in 2026, despite the EV tax credit being eliminated in the US, its least affected market so far.
Tesla has minimal prospects for returning to automotive growth beyond some significant reforms that are nowhere in sight, given Musk’s leadership.
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Hyundai offered a first look at the hot hatch earlier this week after unveiling the Concept Three, its first compact EV under the IONIQ family. The new EV, set to arrive as the IONIQ 3, already has a sporty, hot hatch look, but that could be just the start.
Hyundai has a new EV hot hatch in the making
The Concept Three took the spotlight at IAA Mobility in Munich with a daring new look from Hyundai. Based on its new “Art of Steel” design, the concept is a stark contrast to the Hyundai vehicles on the road today.
Hyundai took the “Aero Hatch” design to the next level, deeming it “a new typology that reimagines the compact EV silhouette.” And that it does.
When it arrives in production form in mid-2026, it’s expected to take the IONIQ 3 name as a smaller, more affordable sibling to the IONIQ 5.
Hyundai is set to unveil the electric hatchback next spring with an official launch planned in Europe in September 2026. According to Hyundai’s European boss, Xavier Martinet, the IONIQ 3 could make for the perfect EV hot hatch.
Martinet hinted that the IONIQ 3 could receive the “N” treatment, telling Auto Express that “The concept is quite sporty, and obviously you have heritage with N brand.” Hyundai’s European boss added that “it’s a fair topic to consider.”
Although it doesn’t sound too convincing, Hyundai’s head of design, Simon Loasby, called it “an opportunity.” Loasby was quick to add, “We’re not calling it N, it’s not approved yet.”
“But I think everyone in the company is realising what Europe needs, and that’s compact hot hatches, so it’s a topic for discussion,” Hyundai’s design boss added.
The Concept Three is 4,287 mm long, 1,940 mm wide, and 1,428 mm tall, with a wheelbase of 2,722 mm, or about the size of the Kia EV3 and Volkswagen ID.3. Both of which are set for hot hatch variants.
If the IONIQ 3 N does come to life, it will be the third Hyundai EV to receive the high-performance upgrade, following the IONIQ 5 N and IONIQ 6 N.
The IONIQ 5 N “was just the first lap,” according to Joon Park, vice president of Hyundai’s N Brand Management Group. He told Auto Express that Hyundai is “at the starting line” and plans to apply what it learned from its first EV hot hatch to upcoming models.
If you’re looking for an affordable electric hot hatch, Hyundai already offers one. After Hyundai cut lease prices last month, the IONIQ 5 N is now listed at just $549 per month. That’s $150 less per month than in July.
Want to test one out for yourself? You can use our link to find 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 models in your area (trusted affiliate link).
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The global wind industry is going to hit some unprecedented growth milestones, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Global Wind Power Market Outlook for Q3 2025. The world is on track to add its second terawatt of wind capacity by 2030. To put that in perspective, it took 23 years to install the first terawatt, which was reached in 2023. The second will come in just seven.
Wind is also set for a record-breaking year in 2025. Global additions are expected to reach 170 gigawatts (GW), with more than 70 GW coming online in the last quarter of the year alone. That means Q4 could add more capacity than the total installed in any full year before 2020.
This forecast represents a 13% jump from the previous quarter, primarily driven by explosive onshore growth in China. Global wind capacity is expected to double from 2024 levels by 2032. Outside of China, the industry is also expanding, though on a slower path. Excluding China, the world will reach 1 terawatt in 2031 and double 2024 capacity by 2034.
However, policy uncertainty and the Trump administration’s hostility toward the wind industry, particularly offshore wind, are negatively impacting the US market. Trump’s big bill act (OBBBA), passed in July 2025, ends tax credits after 2027. That’s sparked a rush of projects in the short term, but it drags down the long-term outlook. For the first time, the US has fallen behind India and Germany in forecasted 10-year additions.
“China’s dominance in the wind industry is becoming more pronounced,” said Sasha Bond-Smith, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “While other established markets struggle with policy uncertainty and economic headwinds, we’re witnessing an unequalled concentration of growth in China that’s reshaping the industry landscape.”
China’s onshore forecast jumped this quarter thanks to rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification. Wind is proving more profitable than solar in liberalized power markets, but China’s offshore wind sector is facing challenges. Sea-use conflicts are slowing or even halting projects already under construction.
Despite those hurdles, Wood Mackenzie now projects that wind could match solar’s power output in China over the forecast period. That would cement wind’s central role in helping the country meet climate goals while keeping up with surging power demand.
Elsewhere, onshore wind remains steady across Europe, Asia Pacific, and emerging markets, with tender results and pipelines supporting progress. Offshore wind is struggling, though. High costs and failed tenders are creating setbacks in Europe and delays in emerging markets. Policymakers are under pressure to rethink contract structures to keep projects moving.
“The wind industry’s most significant transformation in decades continues to unfold,” said Kárys Prado, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “While achieving historic scale, success will depend on how effectively the industry navigates this new geography of growth and adapts to evolving policy landscapes.”
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 91% of new US power generating capacity in H1 2025
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