Just 25% of public think Sir Keir Starmer will win next election – with welfare row partly to blame
Only a quarter of British adults think Sir Keir Starmer will win the next general election, as the party’s climbdown over welfare cuts affects its standing with the public.
A fresh poll by Ipsos, shared with Sky News, also found 63% do not feel confident the government is running the country competently, similar to levels scored by previous Conservative administrations under Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak in July 2022 and February 2023, respectively.
Politics latest: ‘A moment of intense peril’ for PM
The survey of 1,080 adults aged 18-75 across Great Britain was conducted online between 27 and 30 June 2025, when Labour began making the first of its concessions, suggesting the party’s turmoil over its own benefits overhaul is partly to blame.
The prime minister was forced into an embarrassing climbdown on Tuesday night over his plans to slash welfare spending, after it became apparent he was in danger of losing the vote owing to a rebellion among his own MPs.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Govt makes last-minute concession on welfare bill
The bill that was put to MPs for a vote was so watered down that the most controversial element – to tighten the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP) – was put on hold, pending a review into the assessment process by minister Stephen Timms that is due to report back in the autumn.
The government was forced into a U-turn after Labour MPs signalled publicly and privately that the previous concession made at the weekend to protect existing claimants from the new rules would not be enough.
While the bill passed its first parliamentary hurdle last night, with a majority of 75, 49 Labour MPs still voted against it – the largest rebellion in a prime minister’s first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.
It left MPs to vote on only one element of the original plan – the cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Govt makes last-minute concession on welfare bill
An amendment brought by Labour MP Rachael Maskell, which aimed to prevent the bill progressing to the next stage, was defeated but 44 Labour MPs voted for it.
The incident has raised questions about Sir Keir’s authority just a year after the general election delivered him the first Labour landslide victory in decades.
Read more:
How did your MP vote on Labour’s welfare bill?
The PM faced down his party on welfare and lost
And on Wednesday, Downing Street insisted Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, was “not going anywhere” after her tearful appearance in the House of Commons during prime minister’s questions sparked speculation about her political future.
The Ipsos poll also found that two-thirds of British adults are not confident Labour has the right plans to change the way the benefits system works in the UK, including nearly half of 2024 Labour voters.
Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “Labour rows over welfare reform haven’t just harmed the public’s view on whether they can make the right changes in that policy area, they are raising wider questions about their ability to govern too.
“The public is starting to doubt Labour’s ability to govern competently and seriously at the same levels they did with Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak’s governments. Labour will hope that this government doesn’t end up going the same way.”
Politics
Kemi Badenoch accuses Sir Keir Starmer of ‘lying’ about Peter Mandelson prior to sacking him
Kemi Badenoch has accused Sir Keir Starmer of “lying to the whole country” about what he knew regarding Peter Mandelson’s correspondence with Jeffrey Epstein.
Lord Mandelson was this week stripped of his position as ambassador to the US amid fresh scrutiny over his years-long friendship with the convicted paedophile.
The prime minister initially defended the Labour peer but removed him from his post on Thursday after newly seen emails revealed he sent messages of support to Epstein even as he faced jail for sex offences in 2008.
Politics latest: ‘Unite the Kingdom’ rally takes place with counterprotest nearby
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Lord Mandelson – the unanswered questions
The Times has now reported that Downing Street and the Foreign Office were aware of the emails on Tuesday – a day before Sir Keir gave Lord Mandelson his backing at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs).
In a post on X, Conservative leader Ms Badenoch wrote: “Looks like the Prime Minister and Labour MPs spent the week lying to the whole country about what they knew regarding Mandelson’s involvement with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.”
She continued: “If No 10 had those emails for 48 hours before acting, it means he lied at PMQs and ministers lied again about new additional information. These are yet more errors of judgment.
“The Prime Minister has very serious questions to answer. The only way to clear this up is full transparency about who knew what, and when.”
👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈
Sources said Sir Keir was not aware of the contents of the emails when he told MPs he had “confidence” in Lord Mandelson.
A media enquiry outlining details of the messages between Lord Mandelson and Epstein was sent to the Foreign Office on Tuesday, and passed on to Number 10.
Sir Oliver Robbins, the permanent under-secretary at the Foreign Office, asked Lord Mandelson about the emails on Tuesday, but did not receive a response until the following day.
Sir Keir is understood not to have been aware of the contents of the emails until Wednesday evening.
Speaking to Sky News, one Labour MP has called for more information on what happened behind closed doors at No 10 this week.
Jo White, MP for Bassetlaw, in Nottinghamshire, said: “We cannot move on until we find out how he [Sir Keir] was not briefed properly before PMQs.”
“What he needs to do now is get on top and sort out this mess,” she said. “Suspend the whip from Peter Mandelson and expel him from the party, then have a transparent enquiry about what went wrong at No.10.”
This came as Sir Keir enjoyed some time away from Downing Street.
The prime minister was on Saturday pictured watching Arsenal face Nottingham Forest in a Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal fan Sir Keir cheered on his side as they won 3-0. Pic: Reuters
Lord Mandelson’s exit came after less than a fortnight after another high-profile loss for the Labour government, as Angela Rayner was forced to quit as deputy prime minister and deputy Labour leader over her tax affairs.
As Sir Keir has faced a scandal-hit start to the month, a growing number of Labour MPs have begun calling his leadership into question.
Read more from Sky News:
Mandelson’s exit leaves Trump visit in the lurch
What we know about Mandelson-Epstein relationship
Lucy Powell, who is running to replace Ms Rayner as Labour’s deputy leader, has called for a “change of culture” at Downing Street.
“We’ve got a bit of a groupthink happening at the top, that culture of not being receptive to interrogation, not being receptive to differing views,” she told The Guardian newspaper.
Meanwhile, senior Labour MP Emily Thornberry has written to the new foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, demanding answers about the vetting process for UK diplomats in the wake of Lord Mandelson’s sacking.
A man has admitted arson after a major fire at an MP’s constituency office.
Joshua Oliver, 28, pleaded guilty to starting the fire which destroyed the office of Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, at Vermont House in Washington, Tyne and Wear.
The fire also wrecked a small charity for people with very rare genetic diseases and an NHS mental health service for veterans.
The guilty plea was entered at Newcastle Magistrates’ Court on the basis that it was reckless rather than intentional.
Hodgson, who has been an MP since 2005, winning her seat again in 2019. Pic: Reuters
The Crown did not accept that basis of plea.
Oliver, of no fixed address, had been living in a tent nearby, the court heard.
Northumbria Police previously said it was “alerted to a fire at a premises on Woodland Terrace in the Washington area” shortly after 12.20am on Thursday.
“Emergency services attended and no one is reported to have been injured in the incident,” it added.
Drone footage from the scene showed extensive damage to the building.
Read more:
Weather warning in place for Sunday
Migrant hotel critics meet asylum seekers
A spokesperson for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “Our prosecutors have worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and that it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.
“We have worked closely with Northumbria Police as they carried out their investigation.”
Oliver was remanded in custody and will appear at Newcastle Crown Court on Tuesday, 14 October.
In comments to Cointelegraph, Kalshi claimed that Massachusetts is “trying to block Kashi’s innovations by relying on outdated laws.”
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024