Congressional republicans have passed the republican tax bill that kills a slew of tax credits to help working families become more energy efficient, improve US air quality, and boost US manufacturing – instead channeling that money to wealthy elites, increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion dollars along the way.
(Update, July 3 – this article has been updated to reflect the House passage of the reconciliation bill)
The bill as passed retains much of the draft language killing off energy efficiency credits and credits responsible for green manufacturing growth in the US.
The credits were largely established under President Biden as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which raised hundreds of billions of dollars through tax enforcement on wealthy individuals and corporations and channeled that into energy efficiency credits for American families. It was also the most significant single climate action by any country in the history of the world, in terms of the amount of investment it put towards energy efficiency.
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We’ve covered how families could save thousands of dollars on upgrades to lower their energy costs through these credits.
But these credits aren’t just money-saving for Americans, they also work to boost American manufacturing, due to various provisions in the bill, particularly around the $7,500 EV tax credit which was limited to cars that undergo final assembly in North America.
So of course, republicans want to repeal this good thing. The republican tax plan that just passed Congress repeals most of the credits established in the IRA which were responsible for this boom in investment. It also attempts to make fuel economy standards unenforceable, which will further increase fuel costs for Americans (by at least $23 billion).
Republicans in the House narrowly passed their version of the bill in May, which then went to the Senate and was modified. The Senate mostly kept the job-killing language of the House bill, eliminating consumer and business tax credits that helped to spur investment in US manufacturing – specifically the 30D and 25E credits for new & used clean vehicles, the commercial clean vehicle credit, the EV charger credit, and funding to reduce pollution from heavy duty vehicles. Many of these credits have domestic sourcing provisions which encouraged companies to establish US manufacturing facilities.
It’s estimated that the elimination of these credits will kill 2 million jobs by nipping a nascent US EV manufacturing boom in the bud before it really gets started. Many of those jobs will be lost in states whose Senators voted for the bill, like Tennessee and South Carolina which will lose 140k and 135k jobs respectively. All four Senators from those states – Marsha Blackburn, Bill Hagerty, Lindsey Graham, and Tim Scott – voted to put their constituents out on the street.
All told, every Democrat in both houses voted against the job-killing, deficit-increasing measure – which is also estimated to increase the average home’s energy costs by $400 annually. Just the bill’s repeal of the home solar credit will account for $110 worth of increased electricity costs for all Americans, and it also threatens US AI/Energy dominance that republicans claim to care about but are actively working against.
Only three Senate republicans had the good sense to oppose the bill – or, perhaps more accurately, were allowed to vote against it in order to maintain the illusion of their independence from this anti-American party which they continue to consider themselves a member of. But it managed to pass with a 50-50 vote with tiebreaker from J.D. Vance, the runningmate of the convicted felon currently squatting in the White House.
In the House, the original version of the bill passed by the slimmest of margins, 215-214 (with one abstention… which meant it got exactly 50% of the cast votes), again with only a few republican dissenters. The reconciliation bill ended up passing with a vote of 218-214, with only 2 republican dissenters, Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Massie (R-KY), gaining votes even though some republicans had claimed to regret voting for it (or didn’t read it) the first time it hit the House.
Originally, there were additional measures in the bill that seemed to have been included just out of spite. For example, republicans wanted to sell off USPS’ awesome new EVs for scrap, losing billions of dollars in the process and killing the American jobs building them. And republicans wanted to add a punitive tax on EVs while subsidizing gas vehicles even more, increasing the budget shortfall for highways.
Thankfully, neither the USPS or registration tax measures seem to have made it into the final reconciliation bill, but the main measures killing American jobs have remained.
But the reconciliation bill is, in some ways, worse than the original House bill. For example, it eliminates the consumer EV credit 3 months earlier, thus increasing inflation faster for one of the most costly items that a consumer owns – their car. And that won’t just affect EVs – by making EVs $7,500 more expensive, competing gas vehicles will feel less downward pressure on price from the competition of cleaner, cheaper-to-own EVs, and manufacturers could well increase prices.
Domestic EV sales in China have ballooned in recent years. China got a slower start than some countries, having low EV penetration until around 2020, but has gone exponential in recent years. In 2023, ICE car values began to plummet and these cars became unsellable in China, acting as a canary in the coal mine for what will happen to the global auto industry if other automaking countries don’t take EVs seriously.
It’s estimated that this year, China will sell more EVs than the US sells cars overall.
But China is not just the number one EV maker, it’s also the number one car maker. As of last year, China is the top auto exporter in the world, eclipsing Japan which had been the primary holder of that title for decades.
Japan came to international prominence in automotive manufacturing in the 1970s, led primarily by the adoption of technologies that better confronted the environmental challenges of the day, while Western automakers continued to try to sell unpopular, inefficient gas guzzlers. Western governments failed to recognize the threat of growing overseas competition, and responded fecklessly with tariffs that didn’t work. Sound familiar?
And so, this republican budget bill, which would strangle the attempt to catch US EV manufacturing up to China’s long-planned dominance of the field, will only serve to reduce potential international competition to the rise of China. China is taking EVs seriously, and the US could have, if it weren’t for the spiteful actions of the republicans.
They’re trying to kill off these manufacturing investments likely to snub one of President Biden’s biggest accomplishments, with the largest positive effect on America, and as a giveaway to the fossil fuel industry that bribes them disproportionately.
But all this will do is harm US manufacturing and make Americans sicker and poorer – and help the US’ geopolitical rivals step into the vacuum left by America’s abdication of the auto industry.
The bill now moves to the White House, where it will be placed on the desk of a convicted felon who is Constitutionally barred from holding office in the US. It will inevitably be signed, as the bill is bad for America, and the felon in question has repeatedly proven that he is an enemy of America. Thus killing millions of American jobs, which will inevitably be shifted to China, as that country does not have a similar political faction actively trying to kill its own global competitiveness.
So, enjoy your higher costs, America – on energy, vehicles, and healthcare due to increased pollution (and the healthcare cuts the bill also includes). You voted for inflation, and you’re getting inflation.
Republicans also killed a number of home energy efficiency credits today, including the rooftop solar credit. That means you could have only until the end of this year to upgrade your home before republicans raise the cost of doing so by an average of ~$10,000. So if you want to go solar, get started TODAY, because these things take time and the system needs to be active before you file for the credit.
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Save up to 35% on ECOVACS’ Goat RTK robot lawn mowers with fisheye cameras starting from an $850 low
Amazon is offering the ECOVACS Goat O1000 RTK Robot Lawn Mower for $849.99 shipped, which beats out the brand’s direct website pricing by $50. This newer lawn care solution has only been on the market for five months and normally goes for $1,000 at full price, with discounts having mostly taken the price down to $900, aside from the two recent falls to the $850 low in May and June, while getting skipped over during Prime Day sales. This is the third time that we’ve seen this all-time low price appear with $150 cut from the tag price, and you’ll also find its upgraded counterpart benefitting from a discount below.
The ECOVACS Goat O1000 robot mower is the base model of the series designed to handle up to 1/4 of an acre of land on each full charge, with it able to stop, charge, and return to its duties for larger yards. Forget having to deal with laying boundary wires here, as it’s been given RTK navigation that provides more accurate location tracking on top of efficient route planning, with bolstered support from the LiDAR (3D-ToF) and fisheye camera that can take over steering when it enters heavily shaded or tree-lined areas that the satellites can’t see into. There’s also AIVI 3D obstacle avoidance tech, with the added bonus that it can also identify small animals alongside everyday inanimate objects around your yard – whether in the sun or in the dark.
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ECOVACS’ Goat robot mowers can fit into tighter spaces between fences and the like that a normal mower may struggle or fail to tackle well, thanks to the compact and narrow design of its body, with it even given an IPX6 waterproof construction should it need to tough out sudden weather changes as it works. There’s plenty of remote smart controls available via its companion app, giving you the means to adjust settings, monitor its real-time performance, and edit the 3D maps it creates.
There’s also the more advanced ECOVACS Goat A2500 RTK Robot Lawn Mower down at its second-lowest price of $1,299.99 shipped right now, down from its $2,000 price tag. This model comes with a 32V motor and dual-blade discs, with a 5Ah battery that allows it to cover up to 5,382 square feet of mowing on a single charge, which it can be ready to pick back up on after only 45 minutes of charging at its station. It brings much of the same smart capabilities for its navigation and obstacle avoidance as the above model, with the added bonus of responding to voice commands via Alexa or Google Assistant too.
Shepherd kids and packages with Rad Power’s popular RadWagon 4 cargo e-bike at $1,499
As part of its ongoing Back to School Sale running through August 6, Rad Power Bikes is offering its RadWagon 4 Cargo e-bike at $1,499 shipped, alongside the ongoing low RadExpand 5 pricing and the new RadRunner e-bike bundles. This popular model fetches $1,799 at full price, which we’ve only seen dropped down to $1,599 over the last year, with more frequent returns to $1,499 in 2025 or otherwise given some bundled accessory packages. This is the lowest price we have tracked in the last two years, beaten out by the $1,399 post-launch low from 2023 and the all-time $1,299 preorder low from its launch years before.
EcoFlow’s final July Monthly Madness flash sale takes up to 55% off DELTA 2 Max and DELTA Pro 3 bundles starting from $1,349
As part of the final days of its July Monthly Madness Sale running through July 31, EcoFlow has launched the last of this sale’s scheduled 24-hour flash sales through tomorrow at 9 a.m. PDT / 12 p.m. EST with up to 55% discounts on two solar generator bundles and an increased EcoCredits one-time purchase promotion. The most budget-friendly of the two bundles gives you the DELTA 2 Max Portable Power Station with a 400W solar panel at $1,349 shipped, and that price matches at Amazon too. This bundle would normally cost you $2,298 at full price, with discounts having mostly kept costs between $1,399 and $1,599 over the year, though we have seen it go as low as $1,279 during Prime Day. You’re looking at a 55% markdown here for the next 24 hours that saves you $949 at the third-lowest price we have tracked. Head below to learn more about this unit and the other offers during this sale.
Cover storm cleanup, firewood, more with Greenworks’ Pro 80V 18-inch cordless chainsaw at $199 low
Amazon is offering the Greenworks Pro 80V 18-inch Brushless Cordless Chainsaw with 2.0Ah battery at $199 shipped, while it’s priced at $229 directly from the brand’s website. It carries a $350 MSRP direct from Greenworks, but we have been seeing it more often at $299 at Amazon, with discounts mostly keeping things at $229 on average, with two previous falls to the $199 low, most recently during Prime Day three weeks ago. You’re looking at the best price we have tracked on this pro-grade model, giving you significant power for sawing needs with $100 cut from the tag (and $151 off the MSRP).
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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Ford (F) reported Q2 2025 earnings on Wednesday, beating top and bottom line expectations. Despite the revenue growth, Ford is warning profits will take a hit thanks to Trump’s tariffs. We will also learn about Ford’s plans to build “breakthrough” EVs in the US very soon.
Ford Q2 2025 earnings preview
After suspending full-year guidance in May, Ford warned that it expected to take a $2.5 billion hit from Trump’s auto tariffs.
Given that Ford builds more vehicles in the US than any major automaker, outside of Tesla, it’s expected to see less of an impact from the 25% tariff on imports.
Ford imports just about 21% of the vehicles it sells in the US. In comparison, crosstown rival GM imports around 46%. GM announced last week that the tariffs cost it an extra $1.1 billion in the second quarter. For the full year, GM still expects a $4 billion to $5 billion impact.
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Unlike GM, Ford breaks down earnings into three units, including Model e, its electric vehicle business. Ford’s Model e posted a nearly $1 billion loss in the first quarter, but new EVs rolling out in Europe boosted revenue.
Although Ford’s vehicle sales rose 14% to over 612,000 in Q2, EV sales dropped 31% to just 16,438. Ford spokesperson Martin Gunsberg told Electrek that both the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning were impacted by the changeover to the 2025 model year and the Mach-E recall.
Ford Mustang Mach-E (left) and F-150 Lightning (right) (Source: Ford)
According to Estimize, Wall Street expects Ford to post second-quarter EPS of $0.33 on revenue of $43.75 billion.
Improving costs and more EV news to come
Ford beat earnings estimates posting second quarter revenue a record $50.02 billion in revenue, up 5% YOY and an adjusted EPS of $0.37.
Ford Q2 2025 Revenue: $50.02 billion vs $43.75 billion expected
Ford Q2 2025 adjusted EPS: $0.37 vs $0.33 expected
Despite the higher revenue, Ford posted a $36 million net loss, which was due to a “field service action and expenses related to a previously announced cancellation of an electric vehicle program.” It also incurred an $800 million loss due to tariffs in the quarter.
Ford Pro continues to drive both top and bottom-line growth with high-margin revenue streams from software and services.
Its Model e EV business, on the other hand, lost another $1.3 billion in the second quarter. Through the first half of the year, Model e has now lost $2.2 billion.
Ford Model e Q2 2025 earnings (Source: Ford)
Ford attributed the higher losses to tariff-related costs and investments in launching its new EV battery plant in Michigan.
After launching new EVs in Europe, like the Capri and electric Explorer, Model e’s revenue doubled to $2.4 billion. Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning material costs also improved in the quarter.
Ford’s electric vehicles in Europe from left to right: Puma Gen-E, Explorer, Capri, and Mustang Mach-E (Source: Ford)
Ford now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, including a $2 billion hit from tariffs. That’s down from the $7 billion to $8.5 billion it previously forecasted.
The company will partially offset a $3 billion gross adjusted EBIT impact, partially offset by $1 billion in recovery actions.
CEO Jim Farley announced an event on August 11 in Kentucky, where Ford will share more details about its “plans to design and build breakthrough electric vehicles in America.”
Check back for more info from Ford’s Q2 2025 earnings call. We will keep you updated with the latest.
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Tesla is about to tumble off a familiar policy cliff. The $7,500 federal tax credit that juiced demand for electric vehicles in the US, Tesla’s last large, healthy market, after September 30, 2025. Tesla has been here before, but the ground underneath the company looks very different today.
Let’s dig into what happened last time, what’s changing now, and why Elon Musk is already warning shareholders of “tough quarters ahead.”
We have been here before. Tesla lost access to parts of the federal tax credit for electric vehicles in 2019 and lost it fully by 2020.
Flashback: the 2019 credit phase‑out was painful—but survivable
Trigger: Tesla crossed 200,000 cumulative US deliveries in July 2018, starting a timer that halved the credit to $3,750 on Jan 1, 2019, and again to $1,875 on Jul 1, 2019, before it went to zero on Jan 1, 2020.
Tesla’s playbook: On Jan 2, 2019 the company shaved $2,000 off the sticker of every Model S, X, and 3 to “partially absorb” the lost incentive.
Demand whiplash: The price cut wasn’t enough to avoid a huge pull‑forward. Deliveries spiked in Q4 2018, then fell 31 % QoQ in Q1 2019.
Fast recovery: Thanks to Model Y’s arrival and virtually zero credible EV competitors, Tesla ended 2019 with 367,500 global deliveries (‑US dip only 1 %) and roared back to 499,550 in 2020.
Last time, the phase-out was gradual, enabling Tesla to fill the hole with price cuts.
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Most importantly, the phase-out period coincided with the launch of Model Y, which never had full access to the federal tax credit, allowing Tesla to grow in the US without it.
The 2025 sunset hits everyone, but it hurts Tesla most
The situation in 2025 is vastly different. Firstly, the EV market has undergone significant changes in the US. Tesla is still the biggest brand, but it’s nowhere near where it was 5 years ago:
2020 cliff
2025 cliff
Who lost the credit? Only Tesla and GM
Every OEM, but Tesla sells the most EVs
Competitive field < 15 mainstream EVs on sale
> 60 credit‑eligible models in showrooms
Tesla US share ~75 % of EVs
46 % in Q1 2025 and sliding
Gross margin cushion ~22 % automotive
~17 % in Q1 2025 after a year of price cuts
Furthermore, the impact of the tax credit was greater in the latest version. The Biden administration reinstated Tesla’s access to the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles in 2022 through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
However, it became even more attractive in 2024 when the government made it a “point-of-sale” incentive, which was applied directly to the vehicle’s price rather than as a rebate on taxes.
Going from that to nothing is expected to have a greater impact on demand for electric vehicles in the US.
What can Tesla do this time?
As last time, Tesla is expected to cut prices to compensate for the tax credit’s expiration.
However, Tesla has slimmer gross margins than it did previously, and it is not expected to be able to cut prices enough to compensate for the $7,500 price difference.
In addition to cutting prices, Tesla is expected to launch a stripped-down version of the Model Y with fewer features, which should significantly reduce the base price of its most popular model.
It should help with demand and avoid a greater reduction in Tesla’s production line capacity in Fremont and Austin, but with less value than the current versions of the Model Y, it is expected to cannibalize the more expensive versions of the best-selling vehicle mostly.
Key Take‑away
2018‑20 Phase‑out
September 30 2025 Sunset (forward‑looking)
Trigger
Tesla hit 200 000 cumulative U.S. EV deliveries in July 2018; credit stepped to $0 on 1 Jan 2020.
Statutory clean‑vehicle credit (up to $7 500 new / $4 000 used) ends for all manufacturers on 30 Sep 2025 under the IRA sunset clause.
Immediate demand reaction
Pull‑forward surges before each step‑down (Q4 2018, Q2 2019) followed by soft Q1 2019 deliveries (‑31 % QoQ).
Dealers already advertising “buy before it’s gone,” and analysts expect a Q3 2025 bump.
Volume impact in the first full no‑credit year
Tesla U.S. sales dipped only 1 % in 2019 and re‑accelerated +50 % in 2020 despite $0 credit, helped by Model Y launch and limited competition.
Competitive landscape is radically different—Tesla’s U.S. EV share has slipped from 62 % in 2022 to 46 % in Q1 2025. Demand is more price‑sensitive.
Profit levers used
$2 000–$3 000 price cuts, feature unbundling, and manufacturing scale offset lost credit.
To replicate prior success Tesla would need deeper price moves or zero‑interest financing, pressuring gross margin already down ~650 bps YoY by Q1 2025.
Strategic cushion
First‑mover advantage; few high‑volume rivals.
60+ eligible models from 17 brands compete in sub‑$60 k bracket; used‑EV market growing; interest‑rate environment still elevated.
Electrek’s Take
Shareholders should brace for the worst here. I know many of them have been holding on to the fact that Tesla did quite well after the removal of the tax credit last time, but as explained above, this time is entirely different.
The US has been Tesla’s only somewhat healthy market amongst the large automotive markets (US, Europe, and China). That’s because it is an uncompetitive market when it comes to electric vehicles.
Foreign EVs are not eligible for the tax credit, and Chinese EVs are subject to a 100% tariff.
The result is that Tesla was able to maintain a 45% (but declining) market share in the US EV market, compared to just 9% in Europe and 4% in China.
Now, demand for electric vehicles in the US is expected to crash.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk knows that he has warned that the automaker might face some “tough quarters” in “Q4 2025, and Q1 and Q2 2026.” After that, he expects Tesla to do well thanks to autonomous driving, but he has been consistently wrong about that for years.
I think the crash in demand will be accentuated in Q4 due to demand being pulled forward in Q3, which is likely to be Tesla’s last good quarter for a long time.
We are about to see Tesla’s sales decline, most likely sharply, in the US, while they have already crashed in Europe and are experiencing a decline in China due to intense competition.
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