Judge, Ohtani and … Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams
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Bradford Doolittle
Welcome to the middle of the 2025 MLB season. We’ve already passed the natural halfway point (1,215 games) and are nearing the symbolic version of midseason (the All-Star break). Either way, we’ve seen more regular-season baseball in 2025 than we’ll get the rest of the way.
With that in mind, let’s wade into this month’s Stock Watch by taking a retrospective spin around the majors. As usual, we’ll slot teams according to the current competitive hierarchy and see how the picture has changed since we last convened. In addition, we’ll note the dominant storyline that has emerged for each club and hand out first-half MVP awards for all 30 teams.
Should we name those awards? The Stockies? No? OK, fine. Let’s just get to it.
Win average: 101.4 (Last month: 97.9, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 24.0% (Last: 16.2%)
First-half storyline: The Dodgers spent the first few months of the season proving the adage that you can’t have too much pitching. A team with an overstuffed pitching depth chart entering the spring has not just endured an avalanche of injuries to the staff, but many of those who have pitched have underachieved. And yet, because the offense has beaten its projection by nearly 100 park-neutral runs per 162 games, the Dodgers are doing just fine, thank you. And the worst of the injury spate has to be behind them at this point. Right?
First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (145 AXE, 1st on Dodgers, 3rd in MLB). Ohtani’s OPS is over 1.000 for the third season in a row. He’s on pace to top his career-high 54 homers from last season and score more than 150 runs. He has recently returned to the mound but looks fantastic. Just wait until we see this two-way act on an October stage.
Win average: 97.9 (Last: 99.6, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.3%)
Champions: 14.4% (Last: 15.6%)
First-half storyline: It’s the year of the Tiger. Detroit has broken out in a stunning way, and it’s thrilling to watch. If the season ended today, the Tigers’ Pythagorean winning percentage would be one of the five best in franchise history, behind only historic teams from 1909 (Ty Cobb), 1934-35 (Hank Greenberg) and 1968 (Denny McLain). It would be ahead of 1984 (Kirk Gibson). Yes, it’s that kind of season for the Tigers.
First-half MVP: Tarik Skubal (138 AXE, 1st on Tigers, 6th in MLB). Skubal has gone to a place that few pitchers reach. He’s in the top four of the AL in wins (1st), ERA (4th) and strikeouts (2nd). Given his trajectory, it’s possible Skubal will win his second straight pitching Triple Crown. The only pitchers to do that in back-to-back seasons: Grover Alexander (1915-16), Lefty Grove (1930-31) and Sandy Koufax (1965-66).
Win average: 96.1 (Last: 97.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 96.7%)
Champions: 12.6% (Last: 12.3%)
First-half storyline: An offensive explosion. The Cubs’ offense figured to be better after the offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been as advertised, but Chicago has gotten production up and down the lineup and is on pace to beat its park-neutral run forecast by 102 runs. The Cubs’ 121 team OPS+ so far is their best since — hold on to your hat — 1884.
First-half MVP: (tie) Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong (139 AXE, 1st and 2nd on Cubs, 4th and 5th in MLB). Tucker has a minuscule AXE edge when you go into decimals, but it’s fitting that these dynamic outfielders are co-MVPs when we round off. Again, it has been more than these two. The Cubs’ total of seven players with a 110 AXE or better is tied for second in the majors. Six of them are hitters.
Win average: 94.7 (Last: 89.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 98.5% (Last: 83.4%)
Champions: 8.9% (Last: 4.2%)
First-half storyline: The window is open. Those (yes, me) who were heralding the imminent demise of the Astros’ dynasty now look like Cassandras. Despite the loss of Kyle Tucker, an injury-riddled half for Yordan Alvarez, a so-so start for Jose Altuve, lackluster production from key signee Christian Walker and the loss of the orange juice theme of its ballpark, Houston once again sits in the catbird seat of the AL West. The pitching — Hunter Brown and the game’s best bullpen — is the main reason, but the Tucker trade (getting Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith from the Cubs) has worked out swimmingly.
First-half MVP: Jeremy Pena (137 AXE, 1st on Astros, 8th in MLB). Pena recently hit the injured list because of a fractured rib. Given the way Houston has responded to adversity to date, the Astros probably won’t lose a game while he’s out. That’s nothing against Pena, who, in his age-27 season, has been baseball’s best shortstop this season.
Win average: 93.5 (Last: 88.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 93.8% (Last: 65.0%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 3.0%)
First-half storyline: They are up in arms in Philadelphia. According to AXE, three of the top six NL starters and four of the top 11 are members of Philadelphia’s rotation … and no one in that quartet is named Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler, co-front-runner for NL Cy Young with Paul Skenes, leads the way, but Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo have been excellent. Mick Abel and Taijuan Walker have chipped in. If Nola can get healthy and productive, and if Andrew Painter is anything close to advertised, the Phillies will feature baseball’s best and deepest rotation.
First-half MVP: Zack Wheeler (138 AXE, 1st on Phillies, 7th in MLB). At 35, Wheeler has flashed career-best levels in ERA+, FIP, WHIP and SO/9. If Wheeler doesn’t land his first Cy Young Award, it will be because someone like Skenes takes it from him, not because he doesn’t earn it.
Win average: 92.4 (Last: 97.3, 5th)
In the playoffs: 95.8% (Last: 98.0%)
Champions: 12.8% (Last: 18.6%)
First-half storyline: Improv time in the Bronx. The Yankees’ run profile is almost exactly on target with the preseason projection, yet this season has not followed the script. The pitching has mostly held up despite Gerrit Cole‘s season-ending injury and Devin Williams‘ mysterious inconsistencies. The hitting has found its level around Aaron Judge despite Juan Soto‘s departure and that Giancarlo Stanton‘s first homer didn’t happen until July 2. Yet, as things began to ebb in June, the outcome of this Yankees story is very hard to foresee now.
First-half MVP: Aaron Judge (159 AXE, 1st on Yankees, 1st in MLB). Despite a temporary recent downtick that now seems to be over, Judge is hitting .363/.470/.735 and is on pace for 12 WAR while playing every Yankees game so far. Don’t take this guy for granted, baseball fans — even those of you who don’t like the Yankees — because this is incredibly special.
Win average: 89.4 (Last: 98.2, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 75.7% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 3.2% (Last: 13.5%)
First-half storyline: Peaked too soon? The Mets got off to a roaring start but slumped miserably over the second half of June. Through June 12, New York was 45-24 and owned baseball’s best ERA, mostly thanks to an MLB-low 2.79 mark from the rotation. New York dropped 14 of 18 after that while posting the worst rotation ERA (5.93), bullpen ERA (6.53) and, of course, overall ERA (6.24) during that span. Injuries have played a big part in the plunge, but a team built on depth — which the Mets are — should hold up better than this. July is a really big month for this team.
First-half MVP: Pete Alonso (129 AXE, 1st on Mets, 18th in MLB). It’s a good thing the Mets paid Alonso during the winter. They’ve gotten the hottest version of the Polar Bear yet, one who suddenly discovered the joys of the line drive. Still, that Alonso lands in this slot rather than Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor (both 126 AXE) is a bit of an upset and, perhaps, an omen of happy regression from here.
Win average: 88.2 (Last: 85.6, 12th)
In the playoffs: 82.4% (Last: 56.9%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 2.0%)
First-half storyline: Major offense in a minor venue. The Rays dropped to a season-low five games under .500 on May 20 and proceeded to win 27 of 40 behind a surging offense. The Rays scored 20 more runs than any other team during the spree, as they joined division rival Toronto in bearing down on the Yankees for the AL East lead. As usual, the Rays are doing it with a roster of players casual fans might be pressed to identify. Tampa Bay might be playing in a minor league venue, but the Rays’ way continues to flourish in the majors.
First-half MVP: Jonathan Aranda (123 AXE, 1st on Rays, 42nd in MLB). Well, something clicked for Aranda, a 27-year-old first baseman who entered 2025 as a career .222 hitter. He has tacked on nearly 100 points to that mark this season with excellent secondary skills. His 123 AXE is tops among AL primary first basemen, including All-Star starter Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win average: 87.5 (Last: 84.8, 13th)
In the playoffs: 61.7% (Last: 34.5%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.9%)
First-half storyline: More than enough good. No, that’s not bad syntax, it’s how the 2025 Brewers are built. Yet, Milwaukee is in the thick of postseason contention and it’s not because of any star-level breakouts, not even from super-talented Jackson Chourio. Instead, the Brewers have 18 players in the 100-to-119 AXE range, second most in baseball behind St. Louis. No greatness, just lots of goodness.
First-half MVP: Brice Turang (119 AXE, 1st on Brewers, 65th in MLB). Turang is again flashing Gold Glove defense at second base and stealing bags when he gets on base, which he has been doing more than ever. His OBP is fueled by a .288 batting average, which, in turn, is fueled by a .363 BABIP. Fluke? There might be some regression in store, but the improvements are real. Turang’s line drive rate is 3% better than the league average, and his hard-hit rate has jumped by 16.3% over last season. Turang has tacked on 4.6 mph to his 2024 average exit velocity.
Win average: 86.9 (Last: 84.3, 15th)
In the playoffs: 72.7% (Last: 46.2%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 1.0%)
First-half storyline: Staying afloat. The Blue Jays are even in the AL East standings with the Yankees shortly after July began despite the run differential of a middle-of-the-pack team. The Jays have gotten little from key signee Anthony Santander. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been very good but not great. Same for Bo Bichette. The key high-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green) have been coughing up too many homers. And yet, here the Jays are … and some of these problems might regress in the right direction. Or maybe the run differential is more of who the Jays are than the record. This is why we play 162-game seasons, to sort out stuff like this.
First-half MVP: Ernie Clement (119 AXE, 2nd on Blue Jays, 63rd in MLB). Guerrero leads the Jays in AXE (121), but we’re going to shine a light on the surprising Clement. Not that this is a race we track, but he has to be the front-runner for the AL Gold Glove at the utility player position. At the plate, he has made the most of his high-contact style. The defense, in particular, underscores a big factor in Toronto’s success: MLB-best defensive metrics.
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 84.5, 14th)
In the playoffs: 66.5% (Last: 51.1%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 1.9%)
First-half storyline: Rotation injuries. The Mariners have mostly spread out their injuries, but their core-five starting rotation has not been whole this season. Given that knowledge at the beginning of the season, you would not expect Seattle to be where it is, which is in position to land a wild-card slot if the season ended now. And that rotation has a good chance of getting whole as the season progresses.
First-half MVP: Cal Raleigh (149 AXE, 1st on Mariners, 2nd in MLB). Entering the season, Raleigh had a good case to be considered baseball’s best catcher. And, sure, he has hit a lot of homers the past couple of years. But could anyone have envisioned this? This is more than a breakout. This is a player on pace to shatter Mickey Mantle’s record for single-season homers by a switch-hitter (54 in 1961). And he’s a Gold Glove catcher.
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 88.4, 9th)
In the playoffs: 41.3% (Last: 62.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 1.9%)
First-half storyline: Covering the holes. Entering the season, the Padres figured to have some glaring lineup holes, and that has been the case. But San Diego has stayed in contention behind the star power of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and the work of a deep and dominant bullpen. As for those holes? We’ve got a month until the trade deadline.
First-half MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (131 AXE, 1st on Padres, 15th in MLB). Post-suspension Tatis still operates at a lower level than pre-suspension Tatis. Before missing the 2022 season, Tatis had a 160 OPS+ and averaged 8 bWAR per 162 games. Since coming back, he’s at 118 OPS and 5.7 bWAR per 162 games. But Tatis is still really good, and always has that ability to be great stashed in his hip pocket.
Win average: 85.5 (Last: 85.7, 11th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 42.1%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 1.1%)
First-half storyline: One fast transition. In retrospect, we might have overreacted to the Cardinals’ offseason rhetoric about 2025 being about positioning for the front office transfer of power to Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals took a passive approach to player acquisition and caught plenty of heat for it. They also removed obstacles in front of a number of their in-house talents, and that has paid off in a big way so far this season.
First-half MVP: Sonny Gray (118 AXE, 1st on Cardinals, 76th in MLB). Like Milwaukee, the Cardinals have succeeded thanks to a depth of solid performances rather than any breakouts. Some of those solid performers are key to St. Louis’ future: Matthew Liberatore, Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn. But the veteran Gray, who might have been dealt if not for his contract’s no-trade clause, has led the way.
Win average: 84.4 (Last: 89.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 35.5% (Last: 67.0%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 2.4%)
First-half storyline: Buster’s breakout followed by a bust-out? Under first-time exec Buster Posey, the Giants exploded out of the gate. Then, they bolstered a lineup light on power with the season’s biggest trade to date, bringing in the suddenly positionally flexible Rafael Devers. Yet, the Giants have since slumped, winning just five of Devers’ first 10 appearances with the team. Where that leaves Posey and the Giants is unclear, but it’s nothing a Devers power spree and a few wins wouldn’t fix.
First-half MVP: Logan Webb (126 AXE, 1st on Giants, 26th in MLB). Webb was already established as the closest thing to a durable, top-of-the-rotation starter as we can hope to get in today’s game. This season, he has amped up the run prevention as well, posting a career-high and NL-best 2.32 FIP while again leading the circuit in innings. Alas, on the heels of two straight top-10 Cy Young finishes, as of now, it looks like Webb will have to get even stingier if he is to overtake Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler in the awards race.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 79.0, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 19.4% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)
First-half storyline: Rambling rotation. The Reds’ game score winning percentage (.612) is the best in the National League and second overall behind the Yankees. This has happened despite Hunter Greene‘s injury and tepid debuts by exciting prospects Chase Petty and Chase Burns. Andrew Abbott has been as hot as any pitcher in baseball, and the trio of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez has been consistently productive. This has a chance to be a very exciting group down the stretch.
First-half MVP: Elly De La Cruz (127 AXE, 1st on Reds, 25th in MLB). De La Cruz is on pace for 34 homers and 41 steals while soaring past 100 runs and 100 RBIs. His OPS+ has risen to 125 on the strength of improving strikeout rates. It kind of feels like he can do more, too. But that might always be the case for De La Cruz, no matter what his numbers look like, simply because he’s such a marvel to watch on the field.
Win average: 82.4 (Last: 81.2, 18th)
In the playoffs: 20.9% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: Not what we signed up for. The D-backs appeared positioned to possibly challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, thanks largely to a stacked starting rotation bolstered by the high-dollar signing of Corbin Burnes. Burnes’ season ended after 11 starts, while Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are on the wrong side of 5.00 ERAs. The bullpen, weakened by injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, has been even worse. Too often, Arizona has had to outscore the opposition.
First-half MVP: Eugenio Suarez (124 AXE, 3rd on Diamondbacks, 37th in MLB). Suarez is a hair behind Corbin Carroll (126) and Ketel Marte (125) on the AXE leaderboard, but his potent power bat has perhaps been more crucial to Arizona’s ability to hang around .500. Carroll and Marte have given the Snakes about what they expected — which is considerable — but Suarez has outstripped his projection and helped to shore up shortfalls elsewhere on the roster. From 2021 to 2024, Suarez averaged 2.4 bWAR per season; this year, he’s already at 2.5.
Win average: 81.1 (Last: 79.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 27.3% (Last: 18.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.3%)
First-half storyline: Complete lack of an attack. Two years after riding a dynamic offense to a championship, the Rangers have morphed into an all-pitch, no-hit team despite a lineup with many of the same players. And the positions that have turned over have tended to go to promising prospects such as Josh Jung (recently demoted), Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. In 2023, the Rangers’ 4.77 home-scoring average ranked sixth in the majors. This season, their 3.76 mark ranks 27th.
First-half MVP: Jacob deGrom (128 AXE, 1st on Rangers, 20th in MLB). On the bright side, deGrom is back and he’s still very much Jacob deGrom … and seemingly getting better with each outing. In general, the rotation has been a bright spot for Texas, whose top three performers by AXE are deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle.
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 79.8, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.2% (Last: 12.6%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: What happened? Last season, the Braves figured prominently into our preseason coverage when we wondered whether it was they or the Dodgers who would emerge as baseball’s power team. Once again, the forecasts were high on Atlanta’s chance to have a bounce-back season and return to the top of a competitive NL East. A couple of days ago, the Braves slipped behind the Marlins in the standings. When you look at an IL that includes Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, it’s a dispiriting season in Cobb County.
First-half MVP: Matt Olson (125 AXE, 1st on Braves, 34th in MLB). Olson hasn’t produced at the level he flashed in 2023, when he mashed 54 homers and put up 7.5 bWAR. But he has produced and he has also been there, which is more than you can say about most of Atlanta’s other key players. Olson still hasn’t missed a game since joining the Braves as Freddie Freeman‘s replacement in 2022.
Win average: 79.8 (Last: 80.0, 19th)
In the playoffs: 17.8% (Last: 20.3%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 0.5%)
First-half storyline: It’s not about who’s here, but who is not. When you look at the roster of the 2018 champion Red Sox and how many of the key players are still star-level players for other teams, this is going to cast a pall over Fenway Park until a new group emerges to win at a high level. Any hopes of that cloud lifting because of the passage of time were dashed when Boston traded Rafael Devers.
First-half MVP: Garrett Crochet (134 AXE, 1st on Red Sox, 11th in MLB). Crochet pitched this well last season for the White Sox, his first full season as a big league starting pitcher. But it wasn’t quite a full season because Chicago tamped down his usage in advance of dealing him for maximum return. Trading for Crochet for a valuable combination of prospects was a bit of a leap of faith by Craig Breslow. Well, you can quibble with a lot of things that have happened in Boston, but so far, the Crochet trade is not one of them.
Win average: 79.7 (Last: 87.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 18.0% (Last: 68.8%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 2.9%)
First-half storyline: Close, but no cigar. The Twins are another team whose park-neutral runs and runs allowed paces are on track to meet forecasts. Their record, however, is not. Why? Look no further than the Twins’ 8-15 record in one-run games. An optimist would suggest that this should even out. The problem is that it’s probably already too late for the Twins in the division race, and they are but one of a legion of teams in the AL’s middle wondering if they are really playoff contenders.
First-half MVP: Byron Buxton (130 AXE, 1st on Twins, 16th in MLB). Buxton is on pace to play in 130 games. That might not sound too impressive, but if he were to get there, it would be the most games he has played in since 2017. A healthy (or mostly healthy) Buxton is something to behold. He has already topped his 2024 totals in homers and steals and is close in bWAR, even though he has appeared in only 69 games. (He played in 102 last season.) Let us all take a moment to knock on wood.
Win average: 77.3 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 8.5% (Last: 28.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: Could really use Josh Naylor. The Guardians’ position player roster this season is dominated by below-replacement performances. You can understand the desire to open things up for power prospect Kyle Manzardo, who has been up and down. But Naylor was a foundational producer for a team that was a couple of wins shy of the World Series in 2024. The lineup needed him a lot more than the rotation needed Slade Cecconi, who has been fine over eight starts. You can’t help but wonder if Cleveland, owner of baseball’s oldest title drought, will ever stop pushing things down the line.
First-half MVP: Jose Ramirez (128 AXE, 1st on Guardians, 24th in MLB). Who else? Ramirez is on target to do what he does every year, across the board. His isolated power is down a touch, but Ramirez remains more than capable of going on a binge to clear that up. This is another season to boost Ramirez’s future Hall of Fame case.
Win average: 76.3 (Last: 73.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 6.2% (Last: 2.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Bittersweet surprise. The Angels are a mild surprise because they appeared, at various junctures, like a team about to slide back into the basement. But the 2025 Angels have been fairly resilient despite another Mike Trout injury and lack of superstar production, Ron Washington’s season-ending health issue and widespread bullpen woes, aside from closer Kenley Jansen. It’s to their credit that they’ve stayed close to .500, and there have been some positive developments on the roster. That doesn’t make them contenders.
First-half MVP: Yusei Kikuchi (117 AXE, 1st on Angels, 80th in MLB). The Angels’ rotation has been solid and a big reason the team has stayed competitive. The addition of Kikuchi has been the biggest upgrade. The 34-year-old lefty has mostly retained the gains he made after being traded from Toronto to Houston last season, save for an uptick in walks. He’s not an ace, but he has given the Halos a consistent presence in a rotation that, over the years, has lacked stability.
Win average: 76.2 (Last: 81.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 5.9% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)
First-half storyline: Oh no, there’s no O. The Royals have been an above-average team in most areas of what helps a team win: defense, baserunning, starting rotation and bullpen. It has all been undermined by wretched hitting. Kansas City has averaged 3.77 runs per game on the road, ranking 25th. That’s bad! But it looks explosive compared with what the Royals have done at the K: 2.84 runs per game. That’s not only last in the majors, but it’s not even close to the second-worst mark (3.58 by Cleveland). If you watch the Royals regularly, hopefully you’ve been wearing a hat because otherwise watching this team hit has likely caused you to pull out all your hair.
First-half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (134 AXE, 1st on Royals, 12th in MLB). Witt has been terrific. He hasn’t been as terrific as he was in 2024, and somehow, he finished behind Jacob Wilson of the A’s in the All-Star voting. Witt is perhaps a victim of the standards he set in 2024. Witt is still on pace for 56 doubles, 43 steals and more than 7 bWAR. It’s a “down” season most players can only dream of, and it’s certainly not Witt’s fault the Royals’ offense has been so bad.
Win average: 71.8 (Last: 67.2, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.3% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Evil rumors. Low-level buzz that maybe the Pirates should look to trade Paul Skenes didn’t come from the team, so you don’t want to bash Pittsburgh for that. But you kind of do because such suggestions should not be possible. They are only because it feels so unlikely that the Pirates will invest in building a contender around Skenes. But again: If you trade this guy during his second season, what are you building for? Anyway, it hasn’t happened. Skenes has been great; the team has not.
First-half MVP: Paul Skenes (137 AXE, 1st on Pirates, 9th in MLB). Skenes is 41 starts into his career, and his ERA remains under two: 1.99, over 244 innings. His ERA+ is 213. It’s the best ever given a minimum career total of 41 starts. Sure, Skenes might hit rough patches and the number would go up. But he’s got a lot of room for error: second best is Kodai Senga (160 over 43 starts) and third is Jacob deGrom (157 over 235 starts).
Win average: 71.1 (Last: 69.4, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Thud. Our last preseason Stock Watch pegged the Orioles at 88 wins with a 65% shot at returning to the postseason. That outlook has changed.
First-half MVP: Gunnar Henderson (119 AXE, 1st on Orioles, 70th in MLB). That Henderson would top the Orioles’ AXE leaderboard is no surprise. That he would do so with a 119 mark certainly is — last season, he finished at an MVP-like 150. Henderson has trended upward after a bad April, and there’s nothing really to worry about. Still, his step back is emblematic of Baltimore’s mystifyingly lost season.
Win average: 69.7 (Last: 62.4, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Bobbing back to the surface. There certainly was no particular reason to think the Marlins would be interesting this season, beyond what might possibly happen around the trade deadline with getting-better-fast starter Sandy Alcantara. Give the Fish and first-year manager Clayton McCullough credit, though, because the Marlins enter our July Stock Watch as one of baseball’s hottest teams. In fact, if you go to windows of “past 50 games,” Miami has split those games, better than division mates Atlanta and Washington, a game worse than the Mets and just four behind the Phillies. At the very least, you can say that despite a bad start and zero expectations, Miami has not thrown in the towel.
First-half MVP: Kyle Stowers (114 AXE, 2nd on Marlins, 108th in MLB). Stowers is behind Otto Lopez (116 AXE) for the Marlins, but we’ll give him a nod for his huge strides at the plate. The former Orioles prospect entered the season with a career slash line of .208/.268/.332 over 117 games. This season, he’s at .286/.360/.520 in 80 games, upping his homer total from six to 21 and more than doubling his RBI count. He’s not a star, but he has been a key part of a team that has been kind of fun to watch lately.
Win average: 68.3 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: How long is this going to take? If you zero in on the player level, there is plenty on the Nationals’ roster you can point to as a positive sign: James Wood‘s ascension, the play of CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, the presence of touted prospects Dylan Crews and Brady House. The bottom line is that a team that hasn’t sniffed .500 since winning the 2019 championship has a winning percentage worse than what it posted in each of the past two seasons. The Nationals need to make a leap, sooner rather than later.
First-half MVP: James Wood (135 AXE, 1st on Nationals, 10th in MLB). Wood is the real deal, a hyped prospect who manifested his ability as soon as he hit the majors. He’s 165 games in at this point and owns a 144 OPS+, 30 homers, 104 RBIs and 26 steals. His power is somehow both explosive and effortless, and his plate discipline is outstanding for such a young slugger. It should only get better from here.
Win average: 65.9 (Last: 64.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Is it the park or the pitcher? The Athletics teased us with becoming an exciting sleeper wild-card contender. Then they lapsed into a horrifying slump, a 3-24 disaster during which the staff ERA was 7.79. That would be bad in slow-pitch softball. So much for contention. The Athletics have bounced back to an extent, but their season ERA is 5.67, ahead of only the Rockies. And while Sacramento has not been a hospitable place for the pitchers, the A’s can take solace in the fact that their road ERA is also well over five. It’s just not a good pitching staff.
First-half MVP: Jacob Wilson (123 AXE, 1st on Athletics, 44th in MLB). Wilson has fallen off after an exhilarating start that had his batting average at .372 through June 8. But he’s still a gas to watch, and apparently a lot of people have because Wilson will start at shortstop for the AL in the All-Star Game. As good as Wilson has been at the plate so far in the majors, his defensive metrics have been well in the red. Which kind of makes him the bizarro version of his father, Jack.
Win average: 56.2 (Last: 58.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Roster turnover. GM Chris Getz has been a transaction lover as a lead exec, and after the pain of the initial tear-down period, things are starting to feel downright coherent. Some of the prospects have played well in the majors, such as Chase Meidroth and Kyle Teel. The starting rotation has become above average, and that position group has a gaggle of high-upside prospects on the way. The White Sox still lose a lot of games, and the bullpen saves leader is a three-way tie with two. But things have grown considerably less dim than they were at this time last year. Granted, that’s a low bar, but it could be worse.
First-half MVP: Adrian Houser (112 AXE, 1st on White Sox, 132nd in MLB). Houser is our one first-half MVP who didn’t start the season with his team. But he has put up a 1.90 ERA over seven starts after being released by Texas in May. In doing so, he has become someone who might generate interest at the trade deadline. In that way, he’s an avatar for what the White Sox’s modus operandi is at this point: talent accumulation, in every way you can do it.
Win average: 41.8 (Last: 40.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Historic ineptitude. We wish we could put it nicer than that, but the Rockies are on pace to win 36 games and post a run differential of minus-422. And this isn’t a team following any kind of obvious rebuilding scheme, beyond the reality that when you’re this bad, you are by definition rebuilding. Somehow, the fact that the Rockies are still drawing well at the gate makes this even worse. It’s like a Monty Python sketch.
First-half MVP: Hunter Goodman (116 AXE, 1st on Rockies, 94th in MLB). No snark needed here — Goodman has been pretty solid and, at 25, he is young enough that maybe the gains are legit. The best part of Goodman’s first half is that his numbers are actually a lot better away from Coors: .925 road OPS; .790 at home. He’s been good.
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Bill Connelly
No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.
In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.
Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.
In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!
The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?
Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains
When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.
These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.
In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:
2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)
2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)
From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”
Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.
This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.
2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)
Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”
Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.
2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)
2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)
2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)
From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”
Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.
I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.
2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)
From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”
Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.
0:42
Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’
Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.
2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)
From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”
This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!
With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.
2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)
From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”
It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble
In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.
Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:
2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)
From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”
Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.
0:52
FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.
2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)
Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”
This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.
2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.
2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)
From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”
The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.
I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.
2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)
Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”
In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.
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Jesse Rogers
Chicago Cubs Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg died on Monday at age 65. Sandberg, known for his power, speed and defensive prowess during his 16-year major league career, was the face of the Cubs during his 15 seasons with the franchise and a fan favorite throughout the sport.
Originally diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January of 2024, Sandberg was still around the Cubs as recently as spring training — and just as he did in his playing days, he made his presence felt with his signature combination of power and grace.
As the baseball world mourns the loss of an icon, those who knew Sandberg best shared their favorite stories about the Hall of Famer.
‘Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m.’
Sandberg was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Cubs in January 1982 after struggling during his first call-up in Philly. A legendarily hard worker, Sandberg was willing to do whatever it took to make sure his stay in Chicago would go differently.
Larry Bowa, who was dealt along with Sandberg in the trade for veteran infielder Ivan DeJesus, remembers the hours Sandberg put in as he transformed from a light-hitting rookie in Philadelphia to a budding superstar in Chicago.
“I think about how he handled himself when he first got called up. He struggled out of the gate. I watched this guy not let it affect him. It might have affected him on the inside, but the way he handled himself on the outside was great,” Bowa said.
“Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m. [Manager] Jim Frey would tell him [to] hit every ball over the tarp and into the seats down the left-field line in foul territory. Hit it with authority over that tarp. Ryno looked at him like he was crazy. ‘I want every ball with authority over that tarp,’ Frey kept telling him. He did it for a week straight. That’s how he learned how to pull the ball.”
‘Just ungodly consistent’
2:27
How Ryne Sandberg will be remembered in Chicago
Jesse Rogers reflects on Ryne Sandberg’s career in Chicago after he died on Monday at the age of 65.
After his power stroke clicked, it didn’t take long for Sandberg to take his game to the highest level. He was named National League MVP in 1984 after hitting .314 with 19 home runs and 19 triples, stealing 32 bases and leading the Cubs to their first postseason appearance in 39 years.
Perhaps no one had a better view for Sandberg’s dominant campaign than his close friend, Cubs leadoff hitter Bobby Dernier. The two batted 1-2 in the Chicago lineup and earned the nickname “The Daily Double” as they combined to score 208 runs that season.
“Just ungodly consistent,” Dernier said of what made Sandberg so great. “And the style of game back then demanded a little bit of baserunning prowess and being capable of stealing bases and scoring a lot of runs. And so that was our style. He was tremendous.
“Pitchers were always paying a little more attention to me on the bases than him at the plate, and that was a big mistake and he’d take full advantage. He’d almost giggle about it, is what I remember in the dugout.”
Sandberg cemented his legacy during that season with a signature game against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 23, forever known in Chicago as “The Sandberg Game.” He hit two game-tying home runs off Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter in the ninth and 10th innings before the Cubs won the game in the 11th — in front of a national TV audience.
“After he tied it up, I ended up hitting the ball off the wall, but if mine goes out, it’s probably never called the Sandberg game,” outfielder Gary Matthews said with a laugh. “He was great at everything that he did. I hit behind him and he was always on base.”
‘He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark’
Sandberg hit 282 career home runs during an era of baseball where second baseman weren’t known for that kind of power, but he was more than just a long ball threat. Six of those home runs — the second most off an opposing pitcher — were hit off Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who recalled one memorable afternoon for Sandberg.
“I gave up two home runs to him in a game and I had a [autograph] card show after the game and everyone in the world knew I gave up two home runs to Ryne Sandberg,” Smoltz said. “One was an inside-the-park home run. Those fans at the card show reminded me of that.
“He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark. He had a flatter swing that worked great for the angles at Wrigley Field, especially when the wind was blowing in.”
Sandberg was more than just an offensive threat; he also won nine consecutive Gold Glove awards during his time with the Cubs and posted a 123-game errorless streak.
“I used to tell Joe Morgan, ‘This guy doesn’t have to take a second seat to anybody on defense,'” Matthews said. “Morgan would say Ryne’s uniform was always clean. I said, ‘Well, you have to dive because you can’t get in front of it! Don’t get on him for perfecting the backhand.’ In the end Joe said, ‘You’re right.'”
‘He’s in a class by himself’
For all of his accomplishments on the field, the way Sandberg handled himself as a competitor and away from the game is what many who knew him best will remember about him.
“He’s an outstanding human being,” Bowa said. “That’s what I think of. Such a good family guy. His mental toughness is off the charts. Don’t let people deceive you by that little laugh he has all the time. He wanted to win as much as anybody. I’ve been around Pete Rose, and Ryno is right there.”
Smoltz added: “He’s in a class by himself. You would never know he was one of the greatest players ever, just by the way he carried himself and the ‘aw, shucks’ type attitude.
“I love competing against greatness that has integrity and character like Ryne Sandberg had. The way he carried himself, the way he was as a person is what I think about. It sure was nice to see him represent the sport and the city he played for.”
“Joy,” Dernier said. “That’s the first thing, and way so many more happiness types of stories. And it’s a grin on my face to think about him. And yeah, right now it’s melancholy that we know he’s gotten called up to the real big leagues. But I’m glad I knew him and I loved him being underestimated.”
‘Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball’
Of course, there were a few moments in Sandberg’s career where he wasn’t as gracious. In the Cubs clubhouse, teammates saw a different side of the Hall of Famer — a playful troublemaker and prankster.
“We had those chairs directors they use making movies, held together by sticks,” Matthews said. “Ryno would always take the sticks out, put the seat back in, and daily I’d fall to the ground. He’d be over there snickering or walking away.
“Or he would load your cigarette up and make it explode in a non-harmful way. Then when you figured it out, he would put two of those in the pack. He thought that was the funniest thing.”
Despite that kind of back-and-forth, Matthews and Sandberg often golfed together.
“I would ask for a few strokes,” Matthews said. “He would politely say, ‘no strokes, play better.’ He would hit some balls you couldn’t believe. Ball after ball. He would hit one and know it’s a good one but he’d ask, ‘Do you think that was any good?’ And just smile at me.
“Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball,” Matthews said with a laugh.
“He’d stir the pot and then walk away and look over his shoulder,” Bowa added. “He’d be cracking up after getting us going. He was so quiet outwardly with you guys [media], but not with us.”
‘He made such an impact on me ‘
After his playing days, Sandberg served as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies from 2013 to 2015 before returning to Chicago, often putting on a uniform as a spring instructor and imparting the lessons from his Hall of Fame career to a new generation of Cubs.
“I just think it’s cool that he’s somebody that has kind of done everything in our sport but still doesn’t approach the game with any kind of ego,” current Chicago second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “He doesn’t talk like he has the answers to everything or the conversation is never about him.
“He’s kind of softspoken, but then if you got him going on something he really cared about, it’s really cool to hear him open up, whether it’s routines he had or how he took care of his body or just fun memories with teammates or playing at Wrigley.”
Shortstop Dansby Swanson added: “Just such a top-shelf human being. He made such an impact on me even in my short time of being able to be around him. Just an unbelievable human being and someone that I’m very, very grateful to have met and spent time with, whether it’s talking about life or talking about ball.”
It’s those attributes, the ones the baseball world got to see on the field and the ones only his teammates were able to witness, that were missed in retirement. But his attitude about life stands out for everyone.
“We talked about a lot of things, about defense and offense, but we talked about life, too,” rookie third baseman Matt Shaw said. “When he first came up, he struggled a little bit early on and he was like, ‘No matter what happens, you just got to keep believing in yourself and keep going.’ And I definitely take that to heart, and that’s something that I definitely think about a lot — is that belief to just to keep going.”
CHICAGO — Ryne Sandberg, a Hall of Fame second baseman who became one of baseball’s best all-around players while starring for the Chicago Cubs died Monday at age 65.
Sandberg was surrounded by his family when he died at his home, according to the team.
Sandberg announced in January 2024 that he was diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer. He had chemotherapy and radiation treatments, and then said in August 2024 that he was cancer-free.
But he posted on Instagram on Dec. 10 that his cancer had returned and spread to other organs. He announced this month that he was still fighting, while “looking forward to making the most of every day with my loving family and friends.”
Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts said Sandberg “will be remembered as one of the all-time greats in nearly 150 years of this historic franchise.”
“His dedication to and respect for the game, along with his unrelenting integrity, grit, hustle, and competitive fire were hallmarks of his career,” Ricketts said in the team’s statement.
The Cubs said they would wear a special jersey patch to commemorate Sandberg for the rest of the season.
Sandberg was born and raised in Spokane, Washington. He was selected out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 20th round of the 1978 amateur draft.
He made his major league debut in 1981 and went 1-for-6 in 13 games with the Phillies. In January 1982, he was traded to Chicago with Larry Bowa for veteran infielder Ivan De Jesus.
It turned into one of the most lopsided deals in baseball history.
Sandberg hit .285 with 282 homers, 1,061 RBIs and 344 steals in 15 years with Chicago. He made 10 All-Star teams — winning the Home Run Derby in 1990 — and collected nine Gold Gloves.
“Ryne Sandberg was a legend of the Chicago Cubs franchise and a beloved figure throughout Major League Baseball,” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said. “He was a five-tool player who excelled in every facet of the game thanks to his power, speed and work ethic.”
Even with Sandberg’s stellar play, the Cubs made only two postseason appearances in his time there.
He was the National League MVP in 1984, batting .314 with 19 homers, 84 RBIs, 32 steals, 19 triples and 114 runs scored. Chicago won the NL East and Sandberg hit .368 (7-for-19) in the playoffs, but the Cubs were eliminated by San Diego after winning the first two games of the NL Championship Series at Wrigley Field.
The 1984 season featured what Cubs fans still call “The Sandberg Game,” when he homered twice and drove in seven runs in a 12-11 victory over St. Louis in 11 innings on June 23.
The Cubs paid tribute to Sandberg and that game when they unveiled a statue of the infielder outside Wrigley Field on that date in 2024.
“He was a superhero in this city,” Jed Hoyer, Cubs president of baseball operations, said during a TV broadcast of the team’s game on July 20. “You think about [Michael] Jordan, Walter Payton and Ryne Sandberg all here at the same time, and I can’t imagine a person handling their fame better, their responsibility for a city better than he did.”
Sandberg led Chicago back to the playoffs in 1989, hitting .290 with 30 homers as the Cubs won the NL East. He batted .400 (8-for-20) in the NLCS, but Chicago lost to San Francisco in five games.
Sandberg set a career high with an NL-best 40 homers in 1990 and drove in a career-best 100 runs in 1990 and 1991, but he never made it back to the postseason. He retired after the 1997 season.
“When you examine the offense and defense, you’ll find some years where he was the best player you’ve ever seen in your life,” former Cubs first baseman Mark Grace said.
Sandberg was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2005, receiving 76.2% of the vote by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in his third year on the ballot. The Cubs retired his No. 23 that same season.
“Ryne Sandberg had a relentless work ethic and an unshakable positive outlook,” Hall of Fame chair Jane Forbes Clark said. “With it, he inspired all those who knew him.”
Sandberg also managed the Phillies from August 2013 to June 2015, going 119-159. He got the interim job when Charlie Manuel was fired, and he resigned with the Phillies in the middle of a difficult 2015 season.
Sandberg is survived by his wife, Margaret; his children, Justin, Lindsey, Steven, BR and Adriane; and 11 grandchildren.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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