Questions have been raised over extreme weather warnings in Texas, after heavy rain caused fatal flash floods along the Guadalupe River.
At least 51 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.
As rescue teams continue to search for the missing, local and federal officials have come under fire over their flood preparations and about why those along the river weren’t warned of the risks sooner.
Image: A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding
Image: Campers embrace at a reunification area. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
What happened?
As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.
Homes and vehicles were swept away by the downpour – equivalent to months’ worth of rain – while 27 girls staying at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river, went missing when the fast-rising floodwaters hit.
The death toll stands at: • At least 43 people, including 15 children and 28 adults, in Kerr County, • One person in Kendall County, • At least four people in Travis County, • At least two in Burnet County, • And one person in the city of San Angelo.
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1:20
House sweeps away in flash floods
What flood warnings were there?
Private forecasting company AccuWeather said it and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before it began, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.
The NWS also issued flash flood emergencies – a rare alert notifying of imminent danger – at 4.23am local time.
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In a statement, AccuWeather said that “these warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety”.
It also called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.
However, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management Nim Kidd said that one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain.
“It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” he said.
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3:35
Texas searches for missing children
Were they enough?
Locals have told various news agencies that while there had been phone alerts late into the night, forecasts headed into Friday evening did not predict the extreme conditions.
Christopher Flowers, who was staying at a friend’s house along the river when the flooding started, told the Reuters news agency: “What they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now.”
Kerrville resident Darryl Huffman told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that he did not believe the storm would pose such danger before its arrival.
“I looked out the window and it was barely sprinkling outside,” he said, “so I had no indication that the river was going to be right outside my driveway”.
Image: People climb over debris on a bridge atop the Guadalupe River in Ingram, Texas. Pic: AP
Image: A Sheriff’s deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities.
He said in a statement: “People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast.”
Separately, the NWS’s union told NBC News the agency’s offices in central Texas were well-staffed and had issued timely warnings, “giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met”.
What have officials said?
Local and federal officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain and insisted that no one saw the flood potential coming.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official, said: “We know we get rain. We know the river rises. But nobody saw this coming.”
“We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States,” he said, adding: “We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.”
Mr Kelly separately noted that while the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, “the public reeled at the cost”.
At a news conference with the Texas governor, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem said on Saturday that “everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict” before saying “we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification” from the NWS.
She said a “moderate” flood watch issued on Thursday by the NWS had not accurately predicted the extreme rainfall and said the Trump administration was working to upgrade their technology.
Image: Kristi Noem and Texas governor Greg Abbott give a news briefing. Pic: AP
Will forecasting get better?
While Ms Noem said technology for the NWS would be upgraded, the White House has previously been criticised after Donald Trump‘s administration ordered 800 job cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – the parent organisation of the NWS.
A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.
Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were “devastating”.
Legislators in Texas have approved new congressional maps designed to boost Donald Trump’s Republicans at next year’s midterm elections.
Known as redistricting, the state’s re-drawn map would shift conservative voters into districts currently held by Democrats, and combine other districts with a Democratic majority into one.
The process is not new, and is completely legal – unless it is ruled to be racially motivated – but typically occurs every 10 years after the US Census to account for population changes.
The push to redistrict early came from Mr Trumphimself, who wants to bolster his chances of preserving the slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives at next year’s crucial midterms.
But by trying to re-draw the maps in the red state of Texas, Democrats have lined up their own counter redistricting effort in the blue state of California.
If more states decide to re-consider their maps, it has the potential to largely determine the outcome of the 2026 midterms, before a single vote is cast.
What’s happening in Texas?
Mr Trump first said he wanted politicians in Texas to redraw the state’s congressional district in July. The governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, followed up on the president’s demands, calling for a special session to vote on new maps.
“Please pass this map ASAP,” Mr Trump urged on his Truth Social platform on Monday. “Thank you, Texas!”
Image: Republican Texas State Representative Todd Hunter brought about the legislation. Pic: AP
In an effort to try to make passing the vote as difficult as possible, Democrats fled the state for two weeks. Per parliamentary rules, if enough Democrats refuse to take part in the special session, the Texas House can’t meet.
On their return, each Democratic politician was assigned a police escort to ensure they attended the session.
Nicole Collier, who refused the police escort, stayed in the House for two nights, and was pictured with an eye mask and blanket trying to sleep at her desk.
Image: Nicole Collier sleeps in the House chamber after refusing a police escort. Pic: Reuters
Once the debate started, the doors to the chamber were locked and all members wanting to leave had to get a permission slip to do so.
After nearly eight hours, the legislation to formally change the map was passed 88-52 on Wednesday.
It now needs to be approved by the Texas Senate, where Republicans hold a majority, and then signed off by Mr Abbott, who has already committed to doing just that.
Image: Activists protest against mid-decade redistricting in Texas. Pic: AP
Why re-draw maps?
Republicans in Texas have openly said the rally to re-draw congressional maps is in the party’s interest.
Todd Hunter, the Republican who wrote the legislation formally creating the new map, told the House: “The underlying goal of this plan is straight forward: improve Republican political performance.”
He said the dispute is nothing more than a partisan fight, and made reference to the US Supreme Court having previously allowed politicians to redraw districts for partisan purposes.
Democrats hit back, arguing the disagreement was about more than partisanship.
“In a democracy, people choose their representatives,” representative Chris Turner said. “This bill flips that on its head and lets politicians in Washington, DC, choose their voters.”
Another Democrat, John H Bucy, blamed the president, saying: “This is Donald Trump’s map.
“It clearly and deliberately manufactures five more Republican seats in Congress because Trump himself knows that the voters are rejecting his agenda.”
How have Democrats responded?
The move by Republicans has triggered a tit-for-tat move by the Democrats, who are due to meet in California on Thursday to revise the state’s maps in order to gain five more seats.
To enact the same powers in California will prove harder, as state laws require an independent commission to take responsibility for redistricting – meaning it would need to be approved by voters in a special election.
In other blue states, rules are even tighter. For example, in New York, they cannot draw new maps until 2028, and even then, only with voter approval.
Despite the obstacles, California governor Gavin Newsom confirmed a redistricting election will take place in the state on 4 November, in order to “fight fire with fire”.
His plan has gained support from former president Barack Obama, who said it was necessary to “stave off” the Republicans’ move in Texas.
Image: Barack Obama attends Trump’s inauguration in January. Pic: The New York Times via AP
Could this affect the midterms?
The midterms in November next year will likely be on a knife edge.
Whatever the outcome, it could shape the remainder of Mr Trump’s second term in office. A Democrat majority would make it tougher for him to pass laws.
Currently, Republicans control the House of Representatives in Washington, 219-212 (excluding four open vacancies). A party needs 218 seats for a majority.
In the Senate, the Republicans hold a similarly slim majority of 53 to 45.
Image: Gavin Newsom is framing his response as the ‘election rigging response act’. Pic: Reuters
However, the incumbent president’s party typically loses seats in the midterms.
In the 2018 midterms, during Mr Trump’s first tenure as president, the Democrats took control of the House. Likewise, in 2022, when Joe Biden was president, the House swung back to the Republicans.
It’s important to note that 27 House seats will remain in states that are unlikely to redraw their maps, according to The New York Times.
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In a bid to avoid a repeat of history, Mr Trump is pushing for redistricting in states beyond Texas. Top Republicans in states like Indiana, Missouri, and Florida continue to talk about tweaking their maps to create more Republican-controlled congressional seats.
While Ohio has to legally redraw, the timing of which could benefit the Republicans, and, by extension, Mr Trump.
Donald Trump has said American troops will not be sent to Ukraine, but the US may provide air support as part of a peace deal with Russia.
A day after his extraordinary White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of Kyiv’s European allies, the US president told Fox News “when it comes to security, [Europeans] are willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably, by air”.
Mr Trump did not elaborate, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters US air support was “an option and a possibility”.
She said the US president “has definitively stated US boots will not be on the ground in Ukraine, but we can certainly help in the coordination and perhaps provide other means of security guarantees to our European allies”.
Air support could take many forms, including missile defence systems or fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone – and it’s not clear what role the US would play under any proposed peace deal.
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4:14
What security guarantees could work?
Zelenskyy-Putin summit
It comes as planning for a possible Zelenskyy-Putin summit get under way. Talks between the Ukrainian and Russian president are seen by Mr Trump as vital to ending the war.
Sky News understands a meeting could happen before the end of the month, with Geneva, Vienna, Rome, Budapest, and Doha among the venues being considered.
Geneva, Switzerland, is considered the best option, with Rome or the Vatican disliked by the Russians and Budapest, Hungary, not favoured by the Ukrainians.
European allies are understood to want security guarantees to be defined before the meeting.
A NATO-like treaty, guaranteeing Ukraine’s allies would come to its defence in case of any future Russian attack, is being worked on and could be completed by next week.
Like the US, Sky News understands Italy is opposed to putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.
But EU diplomats are confident this is the best chance yet to stop the war, and allies could return to Washington in early September to celebrate any deal being struck.
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5:57
Sky’s Mark Stone takes you inside Zelenskyy-Trump 2.0
Trump still has doubts about Putin
Despite the renewed optimism about a peace deal following Monday’s White House summit, Mr Trump has admitted Vladimir Putin might not be sincere about wanting to end the war.
“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks,” he told Fox News.
He’s previously threatened to put more sanctions on Russia if a peace deal isn’t reached, though previously set deadlines have been and gone.
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Russia launched its biggest air assault on Ukraine in more than a month on Monday night, sending 270 drones and 10 missiles, the Ukrainian air force said.
Ukraine’s European allies in the so-called Coalition of the Willing, an initiative spearheaded by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, discussed additional sanctions to place on Russia on Tuesday.
Image: Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
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4:14
What security guarantees could work?
The Trump administration’s contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.
MP Lesia Vasylenko told Sky News it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.
“Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?”
For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.
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0:46
Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train
In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.
They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia’s side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.
We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.
Image: Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.
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“It’s not true, it’s not true, Russia never, never, it’s my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake.”
Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.
But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.
Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.
Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.
While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.
Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.
If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he’s showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.