The threat from Reform in Wales is “very serious”, the country’s Labour leader said as exclusive polling revealed Nigel Farage’s party is the first choice for Welsh voters.
Speaking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “We think the threat from Reform is a very serious threat.
“I think it is important people recognise that things that we see every day in our lives in Wales may be snatched away from us, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time.”
Image: Eluned Morgan spoke to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast
Ms Morgan admitted “we’ve got a lot of work to do to get voters back” ahead of the May 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections – something backed up by exclusive polling that reveals Reform is beating Welsh Labour, who have been in power in the Senedd since 1999.
A More in Common poll for Sky News found 28% of people in Wales would vote for Reform if an election for the Senedd was called tomorrow.
That was followed closely by nationalist party Plaid Cymru on 26%, Labour with 23%, the Conservatives on 10%, Lib Dems with 7%, the Green Party with 4% and 2% for other parties or independent candidates.
Image: Eluned Morgan said she would never go into a coalition with Reform
Of those who voted for Labour at last year’s general election, less than half (48%) would vote for them again, while 15% would go to Plaid Cymru and 11% to Reform – although 13% were undecided.
A total of 883 people representative of the Welsh population were asked from 18 June to 3 July.
Last month, Mr Farage told an event in the steel town of Port Talbot, he would reopen Welsh coal mines to provide fuel for blast furnaces.
Image: Beth Rigby spoke to Welsh First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan
Ms Morgan said she will not be “chasing Reform down a path… because those aren’t my values”.
“What we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together,” she said.
“I think it’s really important that we’re authentic and we’re clear with people about what we stand for.
“I think we’ve got to lead with our values so we’re about bringing communities together not dividing them and I do think that’s what reform is interested in is dividing people and people do need to make choices on things like that.”
She admitted “there is a possibility” Reform could be the largest party in the Senedd “and that is really concerning”.
Image: Nigel Farage in Wales
However, she said the way voting in Wales works means it would be “difficult for them to rule by themselves”.
Would she go into coalition with Reform?
“I wouldn’t touch Reform with a barge pole,” she said.
Thousands of savers face potential losses after a $2.7 million shortfall was discovered at Ziglu, a British crypto fintech that entered special administration.
Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.
Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.
Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.
Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.
“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”
Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.
“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”
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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”
He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.
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10:43
Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France
Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.
Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.
Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.
With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.
The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.