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The future of the UK economy is weaker and more uncertain due to President Trump’s tariffs and conflict in the Middle East, the Bank of England has said.

“The outlook for UK growth over the coming year is a little weaker and more uncertain,” the central bank said in its biannual health check of the UK’s financial system.

Economic and financial risks have increased since the last report was published in November, as global unpredictability continued after the announcement of country-specific tariffs on 2 April, the Bank’s Financial Stability Report said.

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These risks and uncertainty, as well as geopolitical tensions, like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, are “particularly relevant” to UK financial stability as an open economy with a large financial sector, it said.

Pressures on government borrowing costs are “still elevated” amid significant doubts over the global economic outlook.

Had a 90-day pause on tariffs not been announced, conditions could have worsened, the report added.

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The chance of prices rising overall has also grown as tensions between Iran and Israel and the US threaten to push up energy prices.

Possible higher inflation in turn raises the prospect of more expensive borrowing from higher interest rates to bring down those price rises. This compounds the pressure on state borrowing costs.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

Mortgages

Borrowing costs for about 40% of mortgage holders are set to become costlier over the next three years as households refix to more expensive deals, affecting 3.6 million households, the Bank said.

Many homes have not refixed their mortgage since interest rates began to rise in 2021, meaning the full impact of higher rates has yet to filter through.

Those looking to get on the property ladder got a boost as the Bank said lenders could issue more loans deemed to be risky, meaning people could be able to borrow more.

Financial institutions can now have 15% of their new mortgages deemed risky every year, up from the current 9.7%.

Riskier mortgages are those with a loan value above 4.5 times the borrower’s income.

Be ‘prepared for shocks’

Despite the global and domestic economy concerns, the outlook for UK household and business resilience remained “strong”, the Bank said.

Investors, however, were warned that there could be “sharp falls in risky asset prices”, which include shares and currencies.

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M&S boss reveals new details about cyber attack on company

If there are any vulnerabilities in non-bank lenders, it “could amplify such moves, potentially affecting the availability and cost of credit in the UK”.

“It is important that in their risk management, market participants [people involved in investing] are prepared for such shocks.”

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The steep market reaction following the tariff announcements in April “highlights that the interconnectedness of global financial markets can mean stress from one market can move quickly to others,” the report said.

Overall, though, “household and corporate borrowers remain resilient”, the Bank concluded.

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Jaguar Land Rover was not insured for cyber attack, journal claims

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Jaguar Land Rover was not insured for cyber attack, journal claims

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) “failed to finalise” a cyber insurance deal before it was struck by hackers last month, forcing a halt to production and threatening the future of its supply chain, according to an industry journal.

The Insurer, citing three insurance sector sources, said Britain’s biggest carmaker was still in negotiations over cover before the cyber attack at the end of August.

It opens the prospect that the company faces footing the bill for the hacking by itself.

Losses will easily run into many hundreds of millions of pounds, with its global factory shutdown set to last for a month at least.

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JLR shutdown extended

Marks and Spencer, which was targeted back in April, said it expected that the estimated £300m bill it was facing from the disruption would be largely offset by the cyber insurance cover it had taken out.

As frantic efforts continue at JLR to recover its systems, the government is exploring ways to support JLR’s supply chain and the 200,000 jobs within it.

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One idea under consideration, according to ITV News, was taxpayer money being used to purchase parts.

These components could then be sold back to JLR as its manufacturing operations got back up to speed, resulting in no direct losses for the public purse.

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Inside factory affected by Jaguar Land Rover shutdown

The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many suppliers had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its manufacturing freeze.

Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.

Union demands for a COVID-style furlough scheme have not been taken up by ministers, who have said that support to date has come only from JLR.

Industry minister Chris McDonald said on a visit to a West Midlands manufacturer on Tuesday he was “supremely confident” that JLR would get through the cyber attack.

He added: “What I really want this to be is a wake-up call to British industry. I’m affronted by this attack on British industry. This is a serious attack on a flagship of British industry.”

Jaguar Land Rover said it declined to comment on commercial matters.

The government has also been approached for comment.

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Co-op reveals £80m profit hit from cyber attack disruption – with more to come

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Co-op reveals £80m profit hit from cyber attack disruption - with more to come

A cyber attack in April delivered an £80m hit to half-year operating profits at the Co-operative Group, it has been revealed.

The results showed an underlying pre-tax loss of £75m over the six months to 5 July compared to a profit of £3m over the same period a year ago.

The £80m figure included a £20m hit from one-off costs. The impact of the attack on sales revenue was estimated at £206m.

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While the mutual had insurance cover for operational disruption, it did not have a policy to meet full losses arising from a cyber incident.

It further revealed that the total profit damage was expected to nudge £120m over its full financial year.

Co-op was among several retailers hit in April, including M&S, and iall its members had data stolen.

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A Co-op Group store is shown in Manchester during the height of the cyber attack disruption. Pic: PA
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A Co-op Group store is shown in Manchester during the height of the cyber attack disruption. Pic: PA

In-store, customers faced problems making payments initially and latterly empty shelves as the group struggled to restore control of key systems.

It prioritised rural stores for limited deliveries until stocks recovered in late May.

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July: Four arrested over M&S, Co-Op and Harrods cyber attacks

Co-op chair Debbie White said: “The first half of 2025 brought significant challenges, most notably from a malicious cyber attack.

“Our balance sheet strength and the magnificent response of our 53,000 colleagues enabled us to maintain vital services for our members and their communities.

“We must now build our Co-op back better and stronger to meet the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.”

The attacks on the retailers, which have resulted in four arrests, have brought the insurance issue to the fore as Jaguar Land Rover battles the impact of a similar attack.

Its factories are currently on track to produce nothing for at least a month and the government is now actively considering some kind of taxpayer support for its vast supply chain.

It has been reported that it was in discussions over cyber cover when its systems came under attack at the end of August.

Like the Co-op, it leaves the company facing the prospect of meeting many of the costs itself.

M&S put a £300m cost on the ransomware attack on its own systems ahead of Easter but expects to claw much of that money back through insurance payouts.

The government has this week described the run of hacking attempts as a further wake up call to the business community and urged continued investment in cyber security.

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Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack: No easy options for taxpayer aid

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Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack: No easy options for taxpayer aid

Ministers are considering offering financial support to Jaguar Land Rover’s suppliers but are understood at this stage to have ruled out a broad furlough-style scheme for their employees.

JLR, Britain’s largest car manufacturer, has been debilitated by a malicious cyber attack, with production lines in the UK, India, Slovakia and Brazil shutdown since the start of September, and scheduled to be closed until at least the start of next month.

The prolonged shutdown of its assembly lines and engine manufacturing in the midlands and on Merseyside poses enormous risks for the hundreds of companies in its supply chain.

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Around a quarter of those companies are already laying off temporary staff and restricting permanent hires to short hours, with another quarter thought to be facing similar decisions in the next week.

At one major supplier some staff have been reduced to working zero hours, others cut back to half their paid hours, and others told they are free to seek temporary work elsewhere until production resumes.

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Inside factory affected by Jaguar Land Rover shutdown

Business secretary Peter Kyle, who only took up the post five days into the shutdown, has been under mounting pressure to act since it became clear JLR faces a prolonged closure.

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That is only likely to have intensified if a report that JLR had no cyber insurance cover is true.

He is understood to be willing to offer financial support and is considering a range of options. One proposal, first reported by ITV News, is for the government to buy stock from suppliers in order to provide them with cash flow, and then sell it on to JLR when it resumes production.

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JLR shutdown extended

That would be deeply complex given the just-in-time nature of the supply chain, with JLR unable to store parts and no guarantee they would all be required when production resumes.

It would also be hard to discriminate between the major multi-national companies in the supply chain, who arguably have the cash flow to support their local operations, and smaller companies in the lower tiers of JLRs supply chain at a real risk of bankruptcy.

While smaller suppliers are already laying off staff and struggling with cash flow others are unaffected.

Japanese company Denso, the world’s second-largest car parts supplier with turnover of more than $45bn last year, told Sky News: “As of now, our operations and supply in the UK are continuing as usual and there have been no layoffs or production stoppages at our facilities.”

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Jaguar Land Rover faces cyber attack shutdown

Unions have called for a furlough scheme similar to that operated during the pandemic to be offered to the auto supply chain, but sources have indicated that is not considered the right option.

It would come with significant cost and carry the same risk of offering indiscriminate support rather than targeting those smaller firms most at risk.

Mr Kyle and industry minister Chris McDonald visited JLR and some of its suppliers on Tuesday. Speaking to Sky News Mr McDonald said they were “mapping the supply chain” to assess where help might be required, but indicated that he considered JLR should take responsibility for supporting companies: “This is JLR’s supply chain,” he said.

While unions favour intervention, any decision to deploy taxpayer funds would have to be justified against JLR’s own resources.

The company made profits of £2.5bn last year and is backed by Tata, the giant Indian conglomerate that has received close to £1bn in state support for its other UK concerns in the past 18 months, including a battery factory in Somerset and the electrification of the Port Talbot steelworks.

JLR cannot say how long they will be closed, but they will need the supply chain when the production lines start rolling again.

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