Final 2025 MLB draft rankings: Which college ace is No. 1 in our top 250 prospects?
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Kiley McDaniel
It’s 2025 MLB draft week, so it is time to expand my ranking of the top prospects in this year’s draft class to 250 players.
While my mock draft later this week will attempt to predict which teams will draft specific players, this list is based on how good I think the players actually are.
Behind the scenes, I’ve updated my overall minor league top 100 rankings (here’s my recent top 50) to make adjustments and remove the graduated players, so I can tell you roughly where the top players in the draft would slot on that list the moment they sign. I’ve also included Future Value grades (FV) so you can see where those players would slot in your team’s overall prospects rankings (now updated monthly). I’ve also included present and future tool grades for all of the players with a 45-plus FV or better.
This year’s class is highlighted by a group of college left-handed pitchers near the top of the rankings. Which one is No. 1? It’s time to find out.
More draft coverage: Mock draft 2.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: July 13 at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
55 FV tier
1. Kade Anderson (21.0), LHP, LSU
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 25
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His durability doesn’t continue to progress, his stuff and/or command dips below 55-grade and he’s a back-end starter.
Anderson had Tommy John surgery in high school that took him off the trajectory he was on as an underclassman, to be a seven-figure prospect out of high school. He’s eligible as a sophomore because of his age and showed flashes during the 2024 season as a freshman but threw only 38⅓ innings.
Entering this season, he was seen as a speculative comp/second-round prospect because of his lack of history. Then, he struck out 180 hitters this spring as the ace for national champs, not that far behind Paul Skenes’ 209 strikeouts on a similar journey at LSU.
Anderson’s elbow surgery and slighter frame make some evaluators hesitate about his long-term ability to post 180-plus innings as a potential frontline starter. The other hesitation is he has more good, above-average stuff than truly standout plus or better stuff. Max Fried is a name that comes up a lot, as a similarly framed lefty who overcame those questions and has a similar ability to create four or more good, distinct shapes and hit spots with some precision.
Given the track record of ACC/SEC aces taken in the top 10 picks rushing to the big leagues of late, Anderson is seen as a likely quick-mover who might need only slight tweaks — throwing his slider out of the zone more for chases, throwing his curveball a tick or two harder, maybe adding/tweaking his pitch shapes slightly, making a timing tweak or adding muscle to deliver a little more velocity — to reach his potential.
Chase Burns (No. 2 pick last year) was a better draft prospect, but I think Anderson is right there with Hagen Smith (No. 5 last year) as a draft prospect. I’m not worried Anderson will go down the path of other top-10-pick lefty college starters who became MLB relievers (A.J. Puk, Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Miller) because of his feel to execute. Also, his supinator lean (like Fried) gives him more avenues to find new shapes to attack hitters, while his left-handedness and polish give some margin for error.
2. Ethan Holliday (18.3), SS, Stillwater HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit
Hit: 25/45, Game Power: 30/65, Raw Power: 60/70, Speed: 45/40, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 31
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His hit tool is closer to a 40 (.230ish hitter), and the lower contact rate limits his power upside to around 20 homers.
I’ve taken a journey when it comes to Holliday over the past year, from being lower on him than the industry consensus until the middle of this spring, then eventually coming around to rank him basically where the vast majority has him — as virtually a co-No. 1 in the class with Anderson. I broke down that journey in detail here after I scouted him this spring, and I also wrote a feature about him and fellow prospect Eli Willits in which Holliday explained how he lived that journey that I scouted without me even asking him about it directly.
The short version is Holliday hasn’t performed that well in the summer, when the best pitchers in the class face the best hitters — who hit with wood bats. That period is seen as the best proxy for pro ball, and teams weigh it heavily in their draft models because it is proven to be predictive.
I noticed Holliday didn’t pull a fastball in any of the games charted by Synergy last summer, and his timing with his hands seemed to be to blame. He fixed that this spring but wasn’t facing much pro-level velocity, so it isn’t battle tested, though it looks like he’s now ready to perform at the level of his tools. Teams that are heavily model oriented don’t think Holliday belongs up here because of his weaker summer performance and unproven timing adjustment.
I’m now most of the way to believing he’ll live up to his tools but that he will be something like a .250 hitter with a strong walk rate and 25-30 homers while playing an above-average defensive third base.
There’s still some risk in that projection, so that’s why I give Anderson the slight edge right now. Because there’s a larger-than-normal error bar on my Holliday projection, he could move up significantly on my pro top 100 ranking if he demolishes A-Ball like his brother Jackson did; the potential is there to be the top prospect in this draft class and in all of baseball if it clicks like some expect.
3. Eli Willits (17.6), SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK), Oklahoma commit
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 40/50, Speed: 60/55, Fielding: 45/55, Throwing: 55/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 37
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His athleticism backs up a tick and he’s a 10-15 homer type playing second base.
I’ve written a lot about Willits this spring, from detailing why he’s in the mix at the top of the draft despite medium tools and profiling him and fellow Oklahoman Holliday’s journey to this point — like how Willits moved hay bales on his family’s ranch the day before I spoke to him. The short version is Willits is another in the line of medium-framed, medium-tooled players with excellent performance and skills that the industry tends to overlook.
I pounded the drum about this with Kevin McGonigle and hit a home run on that call; he’s now a top-15 prospect in the game after getting the 31st-highest bonus in the 2023 draft as the 37th pick after I ranked him 21st predraft.
Willits is younger, faster and a better defender than McGonigle at the same point, so there’s even more here. Willits’ upside is becoming one of the better hitters for average and on-base in the majors, with 20/20 potential as a shortstop — still not the face of the sport but one of the top 20 players in the league.
50 FV tier
4. Seth Hernandez (19.0), RHP, Corona HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 40/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 60/70, Command: 40/50
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 43
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His velocity slips a bit, the fastball and breaking pitches play average at best and he begins to pitch backward, as a streaky back-end starter or two-pitch reliever.
Hernandez could be the rare prep righty to go high in the draft and go wire-to-wire becoming an ace, similar to fellow two-way SoCal standout Hunter Greene, but this player demographic is seen as the riskiest in the draft because the hits are less frequent than you might think while the busts are spectacular and numerous.
Hernandez is also a comp/second-round prospect as a third baseman, similar to Green or Jared Jones (another two-way SoCal standout now finding success in a big league rotation), and has been a fireballer with athleticism and a standout changeup for a while. This spring his curveball and slider both improved from both being below-average pitches, with the curveball the better of the two, to flashing above average at times.
There are theories in pitching development circles that standout position players (check; I detail the long list of examples here), changeup-forward pitchers (check again), and above-average athletes (three for three!) are the three most important markers for developing from where Hernandez is now to making the adjustments necessary to be a big league ace. Others say that fastball shape and breaking ball/spin capacity are keys though and those are the two spots that Hernandez is notably below average.
Some GMs/presidents have told their draft rooms that they will never take a prep righty in the top 10 picks under any circumstances — at least one of those teams is picking in the top 10 this year, and I think there are a few. Hernandez might be the best prep righty prospect in over a decade, or … well, I’d rather be optimistic.
5. Jamie Arnold (21.2), LHP, Florida State
Fastball: 45/55, Cutter: 40/50, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 51
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His fastball plays average, he pitches backward, and his command isn’t fine enough to be a No. 2/No. 3 starter, so he’s a solid backend type instead.
I have Arnold and Doyle ranked back-to-back on the pro top 100 because they’re very different versions of a generically similar thing: an accomplished college lefty starter.
Arnold throws from a low slot that gives him a number of advantages and is the type of pitcher some teams love to stockpile in their minor leagues. He has a flatter approach angle that allows him to get a solid plane for his four-seam fastball but also a lower slot that gets more dive on his sinker and changeup along with letting him get around the ball to generate above-average sweep on his slider.
Facing him is an uncomfortable at-bat that became harder this year as his changeup and cutter became bigger parts of his arsenal.
The hesitations are that Arnold’s fastball got hit a little too hard, his cutter is just an OK pitch that he needs to bridge his heater and slider, and he has more control (throwing it over the plate) than command (hitting spots). He could be a No. 2/No. 3 starter with three above-to-plus pitches if it clicks, but there’s still some work to do.
6. Liam Doyle (21.0), LHP, Tennessee
Fastball: 60/65, Cutter: 50/55, Slider: 45/50, Splitter: 45/55, Command: 40/50
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 52
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His frame/delivery/approach doesn’t allow him to turn over a lineup, so he pitches 60 to 100 inning per year with some impact in a lesser role.
Doyle was a second-round follow after last season, then burst onto the scene this spring throwing harder and more strikes and showing crisper off-speed stuff. Scouts still hesitate given the effort of his delivery, his heavy fastball usage, the fact that his stuff can fade a bit late in games and his poor performances down the stretch.
That said, his fastball could probably get big league hitters out right now, and he can throw it in the right part of the zone. His cutter and splitter are both above average, so you could argue that the fastball usage and control (throwing it over the plate) over command (hitting spots) can both be fixed almost immediately.
The question then becomes whether his general power approach to pitching and delivery with some effort will hold him back from turning over a lineup and make him a reliever. Doyle might be in the big leagues in the first half of 2026 in shorter stints while he’s looking to answer that question. Some teams like the idea of an immediate return on their pick with a shot for a home run if he then can prove he’s a starter, similar to what former Vols lefty Garrett Crochet did.
7. JoJo Parker (18.8), SS, Purvis HS (MS), Mississippi State commit
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 45/55, Speed: 50/45, Fielding: 40/45, Throwing: 55/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? He’s a tick worse offensively than expected, say .260 with 15 homers, while playing second/third base.
Parker has steadily climbed from a second- or third-rounder last summer to a late first-rounder early in the spring to now a clear top-10 prospect in the class.
The sales pitch is clear: Many evaluators think he’s a 70-grade hitter with 70-grade makeup, excellent performance and polish, while everything else he does is around average.
Parker is not the biggest, strongest or fastest but could be one of the rare players who is such a good hitter that it floats his whole profile, helping him get to all of his solid-average raw power (roughly 20 homers annually), and then if he ends up at second/third base long term, he’d offer some of the upside of a high school player with some of the certainty of a college player. His twin brother, Jacob, is a seven-figure prospect this year (ranked 99th below), and some teams have shown a willingness to draft them both.
8. Billy Carlson (19.0), SS, Corona HS (CA), Tennessee commit
Hit: 30/50, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 50/55, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 50/60, Throwing: 80/80
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 85
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? The offensive adjustments don’t take, and he has to choose hit or power but can’t be average to above average at both, despite the raw tools
Carlson has been one of the top players in the class for years and physically looks like a lesser version of Bobby Witt Jr. because of his bouncy athleticism in all phases. Carlson is in the mid-90s on the mound, has one of the best infield arms I’ve ever seen and projects as a plus defender at shortstop. His batting practice is impressive, with above average-to-plus raw power projection. He has above-average bat speed and, while his run times are inconsistent, he has shown above-average speed at times.
So you might be wondering why he isn’t ranked higher. It’s the accumulation of some smaller quibbles. His swing is too big (his hands get too far away from his body for some scouts to think he can hit pro pitching with those mechanics). Konnor Griffin had a much bigger question about his swing in last year’s draft (could he change his path through the zone?) and has already fixed it, so Carlson’s issue isn’t seen as huge, but teams want certainty in the top 10 picks.
If and when it’s fixed, that will probably undermine his raw power a bit, and some evaluators are wary of projecting him to be average or better as both a hitter and power hitter, thinking he’ll eventually have to choose one as he progresses through the minors.
On top of that is his age, which is a big historical negative factor to the point that many analytically minded teams wouldn’t consider him in this tier. Adding all of these things together is making teams pause enough, but don’t forget Carlson could be above average to plus at almost everything on the field if it all clicks.
9. Aiva Arquette (21.7), SS, Oregon State
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 60/60
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 95
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? He slides over to third base and is a .230 or .240 hitter with a worse-than-average walk rate, which limits his power upside to 18-20 homers per year.
At 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Arquette still has a chance to stick at shortstop, though it would be more as an acceptable, average defender, and most teams like to have an above-average defender at the position.
The other question on Arquette is tied to his bat-to-ball and pitch selection, which are both average at best, and that makes some sense given his size and big power.
Arquette could be a big league shortstop who hits 25-30 homers, or he could be a third baseman who hits .235 with 18-20 homers. He’s a big leaguer and almost certainly a useful one, but there’s still some uncertainty.
45-plus FV tier
10. Kyson Witherspoon (20.9), RHP, Oklahoma
Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 50/60, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His delivery/arm action doesn’t allow for his command to improve, and his fastball/cutter play more 55-grade than 60-grade, so he’s a back-end starter or reliever.
Witherspoon (along with his brother, Malachi, ranked below) was a bit of a prospect out of high school in Florida but then fell off the radar as his velo slipped down the stretch, and he went to junior college. He reemerged in the past year as he remade his delivery and arm action, causing a spike in stuff and performance.
His shorter arm circle looks like Dylan Cease or Lucas Giolito, while his arsenal is very similar to Gage Wood (ranked below), with a four-seam fastball; hard cutter; and big, power curveball as their primary pitches. I tend to like betting on pitchers with athleticism, a hard-breaking pitch and an upward development trajectory, and Witherspoon fits. Some scouts think he’s on the verge of making a big jump.
11. Ike Irish (21.6), RF, Auburn
Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 35/55, Raw Power: 50/55, Speed: 40/40, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? He’s a good-not-great hitter with medium power (.260 with 15-18 homers) who is streaky enough as a corner outfielder to get platooned
Irish entered the spring as an offensive catcher with real questions about his defense and the need for a big spring to prove to scouts that he was the hitter they hoped he’d be. He delivered offensively with some of the best in-conference numbers in the SEC and comes with other indicators that analytical draft models love: long track record in the best conference, left-handed hitter, has a secondary position that’s more valuable and was a real prospect out of high school.
Some teams think he’s a 60-grade hitter (I think that’s a touch aggressive) with 55-grade power and plus makeup who also might be able to catch, at least as a backup who moves around the diamond based on matchups.
He has a lot of interest in the top 10 picks, likely on a deal, and most teams think he lands a few spots higher than I have him ranked. Irish is a classic lower-ceiling/higher-floor pick teams like to make with savings when their targeted players aren’t available, akin to James Tibbs at the 13th pick last year.
12. Gavin Fien (18.2), 3B, Great Oak HS (CA), Texas commit
Hit: 25/55, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His uneven spring is more indicative of his future, and he has a below-average hit tool that limits the power and makes the corner profile tough to fill.
Fien had arguably the best pure hit/power combo on the summer circuit last year and has grown into plus projections for his raw power along with enough defensive ability to stick at third base. I basically had him ranked here entering the spring based on that and have chosen to leave him here despite a rough spring that has confused scouts.
The players couldn’t be more different, but James Wood had a similar situation — good summer, bad spring, but the tools and swing were the same — and scouts had trouble ignoring what they saw in the spring, and now he is an All-Star. Aidan Miller was somewhat similar, and he is now a top-25 prospect in the sport.
That bias is easy to understand when a room full of scouts have only mixed/negative things to say spread over a dozen looks that cost their team 10s of thousands of dollars. Why would they go to games in the spring to just ignore what they saw? I get the benefit of not having seen Fien in person since the summer and thus taking a more 30,000-foot view. That might not be the correct way to evaluate him, but I feel like I’ve read this story before.
13. Steele Hall (17.9), SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL), Tennessee commit
Hit: 25/50, Game Power: 25/50, Raw Power: 40/50, Speed: 70/70, Fielding: 45/55, Throwing: 55/55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His contact ability is at the low end of expectations, so he’s more of a utility guy with some speed/defense and tools that he can’t quite get onto the stat sheet
Hall reclassified from the 2026 class last fall, so he’s one of the youngest players who will be picked on Day 1, a huge positive indicator historically speaking. I’ve compared his ability to pack tools into a smaller frame (5-foot-11, maybe shorter) and also lift/pull the ball in games to Anthony Volpe, Jett Williams and Trea Turner.
Hall has shown enough yellow flag swing-and-miss at times over the past year that some teams have him in the back half of the first round; others say he’s a little too aggressive when ahead in the count, and that issue is easily fixable. I’m on the high side.
45 FV tier
14. Brendan Summerhill (21.7), CF, Arizona
15. Wehiwa Aloy (21.4), SS, Arkansas
16. Gage Wood (21.5), RHP, Arkansas
17. Josh Hammond (18.8), SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC), Wake Forest commit
18. Tyler Bremner (21.2), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
19. Daniel Pierce (18.9), SS, Mill Creek HS (GA), Georgia commit
20. Gavin Kilen (21.2), SS, Tennessee
21. Jace Laviolette (21.6), CF, Texas A&M
22. Marek Houston (21.2), SS, Wake Forest
23. Caden Bodine (21.6), C, Coastal Carolina
24. Andrew Fischer (21.0), 3B, Tennessee
25. Kayson Cunningham (19.0), SS, Johnson HS (TX), Texas commit
26. Xavier Neyens (18.7), 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA), Oregon State commit
27. Cam Cannarella (21.8), CF, Clemson
28. Dax Kilby (18.6), SS, Newnan HS (GA), Clemson commit
29. Kruz Schoolcraft (18.2), LHP, Sunset HS (OR), Tennessee commit
30. Ethan Conrad (21.0), RF, Wake Forest
31. Jaden Fauske (18.7), RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL), LSU commit
32. Aaron Watson (18.5), RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL), Florida commit
33. Patrick Forbes (20.9), RHP, Louisville
34. Slater de Brun (18.1), CF, Summit HS (OR), Vanderbilt commit
35. Sean Gamble (18.9), 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit
36. Quentin Young (18.2), 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA), LSU commit
37. Tate Southisene (18.8), SS, Basic HS (NV), USC commit
Summerhill’s exit velos were 55-grade (something like 20-25 homers annually in pro ball) last spring and summer, then were just above 40-grade (10-15 homers annually) this spring, but there wasn’t a clear injury or mechanical change to explain it. Some teams think he could revert back to that old level of power and will be an average defensive center fielder; that player would rank somewhere around No. 5 to No. 8 on this list if that had happened this spring.
I don’t think Aloy is that far behind Arquette, and they might be a fun duo to track going forward because every team I’ve asked has them ranked this way, but the margins between them as players are very small. Aloy’s teammate Wood would rank right with Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold if he was healthy and posting the whole spring, but he has had shoulder issues in the past, so teams are operating like he is a definite reliever who might start. If those concerns are unfounded, he’ll be a steal.
Hammond is my third pound-the-table player this year behind Willits and Fien. There are some teams picking in the twenties that are very interested, while some have no interest and there’s spottier interest in the teens. He looked like a young Austin Riley last summer as a standout, right-handed two-way talent who wasn’t getting much position-player scouting attention but outperformed others who were. This spring, he slimmed down, got stronger and looked like prime Josh Donaldson, with 65- or 70-grade raw power, a solid shortstop glove and limited range that will likely slide him over to third base. Hammond visually looked like a power-over-hit type with this adjustment, and his spring was just OK (yes, like Fien) but in large part because he faced awful pitching. Hammond was up to 97 this spring, and his teammate Sam Cozart was also regularly in the mid-90s, but Hammond never faced anyone like that this spring. A summer performer who got even toolsier but didn’t give scouts the spring look they wanted, though he’s still the same guy, if not better than he was in the summer.
The biggest risk to end up not signing in this group is Schoolcraft. There are a handful of teams that I think would pay him a bonus in line with slots in the twenties (which I think is the asking price), but there are also a number of teams that aren’t close to that because of concerns about his breaking ball. The Padres and White Sox are his two most rumored landing spots.
There are probably a few high school prospects in this range who will get pushed beyond the top 40 picks, but they should all get bonuses commensurate with the areas where I have them ranked.
I know some people are reading this wondering who is the sleeper with star potential but is ranked lower. Your guy is Quentin Young. He’s a nephew of former big leaguers Dmitri and Delmon, has true 80-grade power potential and can play third base if not shortstop, but he had the worst contact rate of any prospect last summer. You have to believe he’s an outlier who has outlier skills and also can make outlier adjustments. The Padres and Dodgers seem to be all over him, which helps me believe. Neyens is a lefty hitter with 70-grade power and can also play third base, with shades of Joey Gallo.
40-plus FV tier
38. Luke Stevenson (21.0), C, North Carolina
39. Devin Taylor (21.5), LF, Indiana
40. Marcus Phillips (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
41. Riley Quick (21.1), RHP, Alabama
42. J.B. Middleton (21.6), RHP, Southern Miss
43. Mason Neville (21.5), CF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher (19.3), RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN), Indiana commit
45. Anthony Eyanson (20.8), RHP, LSU
46. Josh Owens (18.5), SS, Providence Academy HS (TN), Georgia Southern commit
47. J.D. Thompson (21.8), LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Zach Root (21.4), LHP, Arkansas
49. Malachi Witherspoon (20.9), RHP, Oklahoma
50. Michael Oliveto (18.4), C, Hauppauge HS (NY), Yale commit
This is a fascinating group of players who should go in the comp to early second round. Phillips has a 20-grade arm action in the opinion of some scouts, while with some command progress he could be a frontline starter with four plus pitches. Quick is a former four-star offensive tackle prospect who could have five plus pitches, but he has already had Tommy John surgery and his command is below average.
Owens and Oliveto were both late risers who are big with plus raw power from the left side and have a shot to play a premium position but also haven’t been high-profile summer performers for years like some others ranked around here. And yes, Malachi is Kyson’s twin brother.
40 FV tier
51. Cooper Flemming (18.9), SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit
52. Nick Becker (18.6), SS, Don Bosco HS (NJ), Virginia commit
53. Josiah Hartshorn (18.4), LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA), Texas A&M commit
54. Kane Kepley (21.3), CF, North Carolina
55. Brock Sell (18.7), CF, Tokay HS (CA), Stanford commit
56. Jordan Yost (18.5), SS, Sickles HS (FL), Florida commit
57. Max Belyeu (21.5), RF, Texas
58. Mitch Voit (20.9), 2B, Michigan
59. Alex Lodise (21.4), SS, Florida State
60. Charles Davalan (21.6), LF, Arkansas
61. Jack Bauer (18.5), LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (IL), Mississippi State commit
62. Jake Cook (22.0), CF, Southern Miss
63. Brandon Compton (21.7), LF, Arizona State
64. Ryan Mitchell (18.5), SS, Houston HS (TN), Georgia Tech commit
65. Taitn Gray (17.8), C, Grimes Community HS (IA), Oregon commit
66. Angel Cervantes (17.8), RHP, Warren HS (CA), UCLA commit
67. A.J. Russell (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
68. Chase Shores (21.0), RHP, LSU
69. Coy James (18.3), SS, Davie County HS (NC), Ole Miss commit
70. Alec Blair (18.7), CF, De La Salle HS (CA), Oklahoma commit
71. Mason Pike (18.9), RHP, Puyallup HS (WA), Oregon State commit
72. Cam Appenzeller (18.5), LHP, Glenwood HS (IL), Tennessee commit
73. Briggs McKenzie (18.8), LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC), LSU commit
74. Dean Moss (19.1), CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), LSU commit
75. Ethan Petry (21.0), 1B, South Carolina
76. Landon Harmon (18.8), RHP, East Union HS (MS), Mississippi State commit
77. Easton Carmichael (21.7), C, Oklahoma
78. Dean Curley (21.1), 3B, Tennessee
79. Lucas Franco (18.1), SS, Cinco Ranch HS (TX), TCU commit
80. Aiden Stillman (18.6), LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit
81. Jayden Stroman (18.1), RHP, Patchogue-Medford HS (NY), Duke commit
82. Cade Obermueller (22.0), LHP, Iowa
83. Kyle Lodise (21.8), SS, Georgia Tech
84. Daniel Dickinson (21.5), 2B, LSU
85. Miguel Sime Jr. (18.1), RHP, Poly Prep Country Day HS (NY), LSU commit
86. Gavin Turley (21.7), LF, Oregon State
87. Joseph Dzierwa (21.1), LHP, Michigan State
88. Korbyn Dickerson (21.7), CF, Indiana
89. James Ellwanger (21.0), RHP, Dallas Baptist
90. Cade Crossland (21.4), LHP, Oklahoma
91. Brian Curley (22.0), RHP, Georgia
92. Gustavo Melendez (17.8), SS, Colegio La Merced HS (PR), Wake Forest commit
93. Michael Lombardi (21.9), RHP, Tulane
94. Sam Horn (21.8), RHP, Missouri
95. Kaleb Wing (18.5), RHP, Scotts Valley HS (CA), Loyola Marymount commit
96. J.T. Quinn (21.1), RHP, Georgia
97. Aidan West (18.1), SS, Long Reach HS (MD), North Carolina State commit
98. Johnny Slawinski (18.3), LHP, Johnson City HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
99. Jacob Parker (18.8), CF, Purvis HS (MS), Mississippi State commit
100. Henry Godbout (21.7), 2B, Virginia
101. R.J. Austin (21.6), CF, Vanderbilt
102. Max Williams (20.9), RF, Florida State
103. Micah Bucknam (21.9), RHP, Dallas Baptist
104. Henry Ford (21.0), LF, Virginia*
105. Drew Faurot (21.7), 2B, Florida State
106. Cam Leiter (21.4), RHP, Florida State
107. Talon Haley (19.5), LHP, Lewisburg HS (MS), Vanderbilt commit
108. Marcos Paz (18.7), RHP, Hebron HS (TX), LSU commit
109. Frank Cairone (17.8), LHP, Delsea Regional HS (NJ), Coastal Carolina commit
110. Parker Rhodes (18.8), RHP, Greenfield Central HS (IN), Mississippi State commit
111. Tanner Franklin (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
112. James Quinn-Irons (22.0), CF, George Mason
113. Mason Ligenza (18.4), CF, Tamaqua Area HS (PA), Pitt commit
114. Will Rhine (18.1), SS, John Carroll HS (MD), Alabama commit
115. Brady Ebel (17.9), 3B, Corona HS (CA), LSU commit
116. Ethan Hedges (21.2), 3B, USC
117. Tim Piasentin (18.3), 3B, Foothills Composite HS (CAN), Miami commit
118. C.J. Gray (18.4), RHP, A.L. Brown HS (NC), North Carolina State commit
119. Brayden Jaksa (18.4), C, Irvington HS (CA), Oregon commit
120. Trent Caraway (21.2), 3B, Oregon State
121. Reagan Ricken (18.8), RHP, Great Oak HS (CA), LSU commit
122. Nathan Hall (21.9), CF, South Carolina
123. Brock Ketelsen (18.0), CF, Valley Christian HS (CA), Stanford commit
124. Jase Mitchell (18.8), C, Cape Henlopen HS (DE), Kentucky commit
125. Griffin Enis (18.8), CF, Corinth HS (MS), Duke commit
126. Rory Fox (21.4), RHP, Notre Dame
127. Shane Sdao (21.8), LHP, Texas A&M
128. Jared Spencer (22.0), LHP, Texas
129. Sean Youngerman (21.0), RHP, Oklahoma State
130. Mason Morris (21.9), RHP, Ole Miss
131. Antonio Jimenez (21.1), SS, UCF
132. Ethan Frey (21.3), RF, LSU
133. Murf Gray (21.6), 3B, Fresno State
134. Blaine Bullard (18.9), CF, Klein Cain HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
135. Michael Winter (18.0), RHP, Shawnee Mission East HS (KS), Dartmouth commit
136. Nolan Schubart (21.1), 1B, Oklahoma State
137. Ethan Rogers (18.2), LHP, Lone Jack HS (MO), Wichita State commit
138. Luke Hill (21.3), 3B, Ole Miss
139. Cade Kurland (21.3), 2B, Florida
140. Cooper Underwood (18.5), LHP, Allatoona HS (GA), Georgia Tech commit
141. Ben Jacobs (21.1), LHP, Arizona State
142. Colby Shelton (22.6), SS, Florida
143. Nico Partida (18.7), SS/RHP, Pearland HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
144. Riley Kelly (21.1), RHP, UC Irvine
145. William Patrick (19.0), CF, St. Frederick HS (LA), LSU commit
* signifies the player has committed to another school in the portal.
Some high schoolers known to be very tough signs are Brock Sell, Jayden Stroman, Marco Paz, Reagan Ricken, Brock Ketelsen and Nico Partida. Closer to 50/50 odds to sign are: Nick Becker, Jordan Yost, Jack Bauer, Ryan Mitchell, Alec Blair, Cam Appenzeller, Aiden Stillman, Parker Rhodes and Michael Winter. There are some others with $1 million to $1.5 million bonus demands that I think will be met, but there are always a handful of players with a smaller group of teams on them, and those teams just run out of money before they can pay all of their targets.
On the college side, Henry Ford committed to Tennessee in the portal and Cade Kurland is widely expected to return to Florida. Henry Godbout also has some chance to return to school, but most of the other college players are expected to sign without a hitch.
Jacob Parker is JoJo’s twin brother and, yes, one half of the Parker brothers.
If you read my breakdown here (search for “Mickey Moniak”), I think this draft might have a disproportionate number of stars in the late second round and later, like the 2016 draft, so let’s try to find some prospects with traits that fit historical breakout types.
Some potential quick movers (polished college arms with some traits that suggest shorter stints/relief): A.J. Russell, Chase Shores, Cade Obermueller, Brian Curley and Mason Morris.
Some college relievers or split duty types that teams want to start: Tanner Franklin, J.T. Quinn. Sean Youngerman, Sam Horn and Michael Lombardi.
And some injured pitchers: Jared Spencer (shoulder), Cam Leiter (elbow), Shane Sdao (elbow) and Marcos Paz (just returned from elbow surgery but has thrown only bullpens).
Lastly, let’s jump into some huge upside guys and sleepers to keep an eye on, first with high schoolers.
Prep LHP Jack Bauer hit 103 mph this spring (the hardest high school pitch ever thrown) and has a plus-plus slurve/sweeper, but he also walked a ton of hitters, so some teams aren’t interested at a seven-figure price and some might be willing to take him in the comp/second round for big money. Josiah Hartshorn was a hit-first corner type who grew into big power this spring. Ryan Mitchell offers a lower-tier version of the Eli Willits toolset. Taitn Gray has plus-plus raw power and standout athletic testing, and he might be able to catch but hasn’t faced much high-end pitching.
I didn’t love my look at Coy James this spring, but he’s an infielder with plus power, and I think he’ll go in the comp round. Cam Appenzeller looked like a first-rounder last summer and had a terrible spring but could still emerge in the next few years. Miguel Sime is up to 100 mph, and his offspeed pitches have really progressed this year.
The low-seven-figure prep lefty group — Briggs McKenzie, Aiden Stillman, Johnny Slawinski, Talon Haley, Frank Cairone, Cooper Underwood and Ethan Rogers — is deep and probably has a few standout big leaguers. C.J. Gray is one of the most athletic and loose prospects in the draft and had 20-grade command early this spring but really came on late. I’ll hold my breath, but that isn’t wildly different from Jacob Misiorowski’s early journey.
On the college side, Jake Cook is an 80-grade runner who converted from pitching, can really put the bat on the ball and has lots of second-round interest — sort of like Chandler Simpson did a few years ago. James Ellwanger improved the mediocre shape of his fastball late in the season, adding a few inches of vertical movement, and now has late second-round buzz, because he has always been big and physical with mid-90s velocity and multiple swing-and-miss breaking pitches.
Michael Lombardi was my semi-secret reliever-to-starter conversion pick early in the spring, but the industry has come around and there is a chance he also goes in the second round. J.T. Quinn was one player I got on board with later in the spring, but then he shoved as a starter on the Cape and now teams are jumping on board with that idea, too. Cade Crossland wasn’t completely optimized in college and has a shot to be a No. 3 starter with some tweaks. Sam Horn has an above-average sinker/slider combo but a fresh arm because of elbow surgery and playing quarterback at Missouri. Rory Fox is another pitcher with two-way history who showed a starter fit and flashes of above-average stuff, but his stuff tailed off down the stretch.
Shortstop Antonio Jimenez draws extremely varied responses from the industry but should go around the fourth round and could develop into a power-over-hit shortstop with a shot to play a big league role. Ethan Frey came out of nowhere to be one of the best hitters for LSU and has some history catching; he’ll be taken as a DH with a short track record of success but might be more than that.
35-plus FV tier
146. C.J. Hughes (17.8), SS, Junipero Serra HS (CA), UC Santa Barbara commit
147. Landyn Vidourek (21.6), RF, Cincinnati
148. Colin Yeaman (21.2), SS, UC Irvine
149. Davion Hickson (21.8), RHP, Rice*
150. Jacob Morrison (21.9), RHP, Coastal Carolina
151. Ty Harvey (19.0), C, Inspiration Academy HS (FL), Florida State commit
152. Uli Fernsler (17.9), LHP, Novi HS (MI), TCU commit
153. Dean Livingston (18.9), RHP, Hebron Christian HS (GA), Georgia commit
154. Justin Lamkin (21.0), LHP, Texas A&M
155. Mason White (21.8), SS, Arizona
156. Jaiden LoRe (18.4), SS, Corona Del Sol HS (AZ), BYU commit
157. Ethin Bingaman (18.8), RF/RHP, Corona HS (CA), Auburn commit
158. Remo Indomenico (18.0), CF, First Academy HS (FL), Oklahoma State commit
159. Ethan Grim (18.0), RHP, Governor Mifflin HS (PA), Virginia Tech commit
160. Will Hynes (18.0), RHP, Lorne Park HS (CAN), Wake Forest commit
161. Jason Reitz (21.0), RHP, Oregon
162. Trent Grindlinger (19.0), C, Huntington Beach HS (CA), Mississippi State commit
163. Xavier Mitchell (19.0), LHP, Prestonwood Christian HS (TX), Texas commit
164. Cam Maldonado (21.7), CF, Northeastern
165. Caden Hunter (21.8), LHP, USC
166. Matt Barr (19.5), RHP, Niagara County JC (NY), Tennessee commit
167. Adonys Guzman (21.6), C, Arizona
168. Kaeden Kent (21.9), SS, Texas A&M
169. Aaron Walton (21.3), CF, Arizona
170. Ben Abeldt (21.6), LHP, TCU
171. Angel Laya (18.8), RF, Eastlake HS (CA), Oregon commit
172. Ty Peeples (18.8), CF, Franklin County HS (GA), Georgia commit
173. Reid Worley (19.0), RHP, Cherokee HS (GA), Kennesaw State commit
174. Brent Iredale (22), 3B, Arkansas
175. Josh Flores (18.0), RHP, Lake Central HS (IN), Kentucky commit
176. Brett Crossland (18.9), RHP, Corona Del Sol HS (AZ), Texas commit
177. Sean Episcope (21.4), RHP, Princeton
178. John Stuetzer (18.8), CF, Pope HS (GA), Florida State commit
179. Matt Ferrara (18.0), SS, Toms River East HS (NJ), Pitt commit
180. Chris Arroyo (20.9), 1B, Virginia
181. Tre Phelps (21.0), RF, Georgia
182. Jake Munroe (21.9), 3B, Louisville
183. Gavin Lauridsen (18.6), RHP, Foothill HS (CA), USC commit
184. River Hamilton (18.8), RHP, Barlow HS (OR), LSU commit
185. Brendan Brock (20.9), C, Southwestern Illinois JC, Oklahoma commit
186. Aidan Teel (21.0), CF, Virginia*
187. Jacob McCombs (21.0), CF, UC Irvine
188. Jack Gurevitch (21.4), 1B, San Diego
189. Lorenzo Meola (21.7), SS, Stetson
190. Cameron Millar (18.1), RHP, Alhambra HS (CA), Arizona commit
191. Richie Bonomolo Jr. (21.8), CF, Alabama
192. Jack Lafflam (18.8), RHP, Brophy Prep HS (AZ), Arizona commit
193. Caleb Leys (22.0), LHP, Maine
194. Eli Pitts (18.7), CF, Parkview HS (GA), USF commit
195. Anthony Martinez (21.2), 1B, UC Irvine
196. Cody Bowker (21.7), RHP, Vanderbilt
197. Nick Dumesnil (21.3), CF, Cal Baptist
198. Ethan Moore (18.8), SS, Oak Park & River Forest HS (IL), Tennessee commit
199. Karson Bowen (21.0), C, TCU
200. Conor Essenburg (18.8), RF/LHP, Lincoln-Way West HS (IL), Kentucky commit
201. Michael Salina (21.5), RHP, St. Bonaventure
202. Josh Tate (21.9), CF, Georgia Southern
203. Griffin Hugus (21.4), RHP, Miami
204. Josh Jannicelli (18.2), RHP, Cardinal Newman HS (CA), UC Santa Barbara commit
205. Ryan Wideman (21.7), CF, Western Kentucky*
206. Justin Mitrovich (21.8), RHP, Elon
207. Carson Brumbaugh (18.8), SS, Edmond Santa Fe HS (OK), Arkansas commit
208. Blake Gillespie (21.8), RHP, Charlotte
209. Brooks Bryan (21.0), C, Troy
210. Hudson Barrett (21.5), LHP, UC Santa Barbara
211. Nelson Keljo (21.9), LHP, Oregon State
212. Nick Monistere (21.5), 2B, Southern Miss
213. Joe Ariola (21.5), LHP, Wake Forest
214. Jake Clemente (21.7), RHP, Florida
215. Landon Hodge (18.4), C, Crespi Carmelite HS (CA), LSU commit
216. Linkin Garcia (19.1), SS, A3 Academy HS (FL), Texas Tech commit
217. Evan Hankins (19.2), 1B, Miller School HS (VA), Tennessee commit
218. Riley Nelson (21.6), 1B, Vanderbilt
219. Tucker Biven (21.3), RHP, Louisville
220. Zane Taylor (23.1), RHP, UNC Wilmington
221. Jalin Flores (21.9), SS, Texas
222. Zach Strickland (19.1), RHP, Maranatha HS (CA), UCLA commit
223. Gabe Davis (21.7), RHP, Oklahoma State
224. Pico Kohn (22.9), LHP, Mississippi State
225. Mason Peters (21.6), LHP, Dallas Baptist
226. Peter Mershon (19.2), C, Eastside HS (SC), Mississippi State commit
227. Marcelo Harsch (18.1), RHP, Seton Hall Prep HS (NJ), Wake Forest commit
228. Brody Walls (18.9), RHP, McKinney Boyd HS (TX), Texas commit
229. Nate Snead (21.3), RHP, Tennessee
230. Grady Westphal (18.9), RHP, Blue Valley HS (KS), Texas commit
231. Mason Braun (18.3), LF, Penn HS (IN), LSU commit
232. Trevor Cohen (21.8), CF, Rutgers
233. Landon Beidelschies (21.3), LHP, Arkansas
234. Emilio Barreras (21.7), SS, Grand Canyon
235. Ethan Young (21.5), RHP, East Carolina
236. Ryan Weingartner (21.0), SS, Penn State
237. Dylan Brown (21.0), LHP, Old Dominion
238. Brandon Shannon (18.7), RHP, McHenry West HS (IL), Louisville commit
239. Grayson Boles (18.8), RHP, St. Augustine HS (CA), Texas commit
240. Matt Klein (21.8), C, Louisville
241. Zion Theophilus (19.0), RHP, Moeller HS (OH), LSU commit
242. Grady Lenahan (18.8), CF, Pro5 Academy HS (NC), East Carolina commit
243. Hunter Allen (22.0), RHP, Ashland
244. Cal Scolari (21.2), RHP, San Diego
245. Dixon Williams (21.5), 2B, East Carolina
246. Kolten Smith (21.5), RHP, Georgia
247. Wyatt Vincent (18.9), SS, Nixa HS (MO), Missouri State commit
248. Hunter Elliott (22.9), LHP, Ole Miss
249. Jared Jones (22.0), 1B, LSU
250. Anthony Frobose (17.9), SS, Lakeland HS (NY), Rutgers commit
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Dave Wilson
THIBODEAUX, La. — In the middle of a sweltering August day in south Louisiana, Archibald “Arch” Manning, son of Cooper, grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli, roams the fields of his ancestral homeland, the Manning Passing Academy, where quarterbacks are grown.
This is Year 29 of the MPA, and Arch’s dad and uncles have been present for every one, beginning when Cooper had just graduated from Ole Miss, Peyton was a freshman at Tennessee and Eli was a camper as a sophomore in high school.
Archie, the patriarch of football’s first family, surveys 48 of the best college quarterbacks in America — this year’s counselors. There’s one who stands out: A moppy-haired 6-4, 200-pound Texas Longhorns quarterback, who just happens to be his grandson.
“Arch has come full circle,” he said.
Archie, 76, has nine grandchildren. Eli’s four kids in New York. Peyton’s twins in Denver. But Cooper’s three –May, who just graduated from Virginia, Arch, a junior at Texas, and Heid, a sophomore at Texas — all grew up in New Orleans and were constants in his life.
Arch, his namesake, is the one who has gone into the family business and today is a big day. Last year, Arch didn’t compete in the skills competition or serve in any official capacity, wanting Quinn Ewers to represent Texas at the camp.
Now, Arch is the starter at Texas. But more importantly on this day, he’s a Manning Passing Academy counselor. At the sight, Archie’s memories start playing out in his eyes; he sees 4-year-old Arch, roaming the fields at Nicholls State, wearing an MPA T-shirt.
“He wore glasses when he was a little boy,” Archie said. “I can remember how excited he was when he first got to be a camper — eighth grade — a real camper, and stay in the dorm. I used to sneak off and watch his 7-on-7 games. I remember one year his coach was Trevor Lawrence. That was pretty cool. And now he’s a full counselor. Unbelievable.”
It’s the first step in a big year for perhaps the most famous quarterback in college football history.
“Just climbing the ladder,” Arch said.
Now, summer camp is over, Arch is on the top rung and the hot-take economy awaits his first start. He’ll lead No. 1 Texas into Columbus, Ohio, to take on No. 3 Ohio State on Saturday (noon ET, Fox), opening the season as ESPN BET’s leading Heisman candidate.
For two years, Arch has laid low, but that hasn’t stopped the hype. At Sugar Bowl media day in 2023, a throng of reporters surrounded him while the starter, Ewers, waited at a nearly empty podium. Whenever Arch entered games, Texas fans took to their feet. When he lost his student ID the first week on campus, it made the local news. When his picture went missing from the wall of a local burger joint, a citywide search ensued.
All of this happened despite the family’s best efforts, not because of it.
“He ain’t even pissed a drop yet,” Archie protested when I contacted him about this story.
There are inherent advantages to being a Manning. They seem to be imbued with a mix of self-effacing humor and a relentless pursuit of excellence. But Arch is the first Manning to emerge into the world that social media created. We didn’t even know which schools Peyton visited. We didn’t have pictures of Eli popping up on our phones every day.
While Arch’s road to becoming his own Manning started off in much the same way as his uncles, his experience since has been unlike anyone else’s.
I. The Manning whisperer
DAVID CUTCLIFFE SAW the future in 1969 at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama. Cutcliffe, then 15, was there to see No. 15 Alabama playing No. 20 Ole Miss in the first night game ever televised in color. Though Cutcliffe was there as an invited guest of the Crimson Tide, and would go on to graduate from Alabama, he instead came away with a new hero.
No player had ever thrown for 300 yards and rushed for 100 in a major college football game. But that night, in a duel with Alabama’s Scott Hunter, Archie completed 33 of 52 passes for 436 yards and two touchdowns and ran 15 times for 104 yards and three scores. Bear Bryant and the Tide prevailed 33-32 but Cutcliffe was smitten.
“He was the only thing I could watch as a young high school guy,” Cutcliffe said. “Man, I’m watching Archie Manning. I didn’t want to see anybody else after that game.”
He had no idea that he would end up in Archie’s living room in New Orleans nearly 25 years later, trying to sell him on sending his son to Tennessee, where Cutcliffe was the offensive coordinator for Philip Fulmer. Both men laugh remembering when Cutcliffe visited and regaled Peyton with some film, while Archie, who was sitting in, drifted off for a nap.
“I’m probably the only coach in history that’s ever bored Archie Manning enough to put him asleep,” Cutcliffe said. “He has never bored me. He’s one of my favorite human beings on the face of the Earth.”
Between 1994 and 1997, with Cutcliffe as his mentor, Peyton became Tennessee‘s all-time leading passer, throwing for 11,201 yards and 89 touchdowns. Then, as the head coach at Ole Miss, he coached Eli from 2000 to 2003, as the quarterback also set school records with 10,119 passing yards and 81 TDs. So naturally, Cutcliffe always planned on making a pitch for Arch, and he didn’t wait long. He had a courier bring an Ole Miss scholarship offer to Cooper in the hospital the day Arch was born in 2004.
Cutcliffe was out of coaching when Arch actually committed to Texas, but he got to coach him after all. He started working with Arch at 10 years old.
“He was a talented youngster, a middle schooler,” Cutcliffe said. “He’s always been strong. You could see the physical abilities. But what I liked about Arch is Arch liked working. He does not have to be forced into work.”
Cooper was an All-State, 6-4 wide receiver before spinal stenosis ended his career, and Cooper’s mom, Ellen, is in the athletics Hall of Fame at Sacred Heart in New Orleans, where she ran track. Arch certainly had the right parents to be a world-class athlete, but the Manning family knows well that speed can’t be handed over in a will.
“Peyton, he was really determined,” Archie said, laughing. “One day he just asked me, ‘Dad, why am I not fast?’ I didn’t have an answer for that. Eli followed in that same mold. But I can remember when Arch first started playing flag football, the other boys couldn’t pull his flag. They couldn’t get him.”
Cutcliffe, who now works as a special assistant to SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, visits Arch in Austin and sometimes sits in on quarterback meetings and watches practice, which the Texas coaches encourage. Now, he can’t wait to watch Arch scramble around, the same way he couldn’t wait to watch Archie play that night at Legion Field.
“I think it’s a thing of beauty,” Cutcliffe said. “The fact that his name is Arch — short for Archie — it’s only appropriate.”
II. The lightness of being a Manning
FOR 29 YEARS, the Manning Passing Academy, Archie’s baby, has trained quarterbacks across the country, including 25 of last year’s 32 NFL starters. Archie is uniquely aware of the family’s role in the football ecosystem and understands the pressure on QBs. But he can’t understand all the attention showered on Arch before he has started a season opener in college. Archie is no fan of the discourse.
“It’s just so unfair it just kills me,” Archie said. “Even my old friend Steve Spurrier, on a podcast, he blows up Arch.”
In June, Spurrier appeared on “Another Dooley Noted Podcast” and noted Texas was a trendy pick for the SEC championship. “They’ve got Arch Manning already winning the Heisman,” Spurrier said. “If he was this good, how come they let Quinn Ewers play all the time last year? And he was a seventh-round pick.”
So Archie tries to keep his steady and remain a grandfather, preferring to stay out of the spotlight, but so many people have his phone number that he still becomes the go-to guy for a quote about Arch. Archie texts all nine grandchildren, who call him Red for his hair that was once that color, every morning. It could be a Bible verse, a motivational message, a thought for the day. Archie talks football sparingly, instead keeping it simple with Arch: He reminds him to be a good teammate, or checks on how practice is going.
“I get a lot of texts from him,” Arch said with a smile. “He can’t hear well. So he texts.”
And he might stick to texting. Archie has been bewildered at times during Arch’s college tenure by the way his quotes turn into headlines, like when he told a Texas Monthly reporter he thought Arch would return for his senior year.
“Yeah, I don’t know where he got that from,” a bemused Arch told reporters in response, noting that Archie texted him to apologize. For Archie, it was a reminder of how far his voice can travel, and why he has to be careful.
He tells a story from a decade ago. Arch was making the transition from flag football to tackle in sixth grade. While Archie was driving Arch to a baseball tournament, the grandson asked for his grandfather’s wisdom for the first time.
“Red, I’m going to be playing real football this year for the first time, and I’ll be the quarterback,” Arch said. “You got any advice for me?”
Archie lit up.
You’ve got to know your play, Archie told him. Stand outside the huddle. When you walk in that huddle, nobody else talks. You call that play with authority and get ’em in and out of the huddle. That’s called “huddle presence,” and it’s among the most important things for a quarterback.
“Well, Red,” Arch replied. “We don’t ever huddle.”
Showed what he knew, Archie said. So he makes it clear he is just around to watch his grandson fulfill his own dreams.
“Arch and I have a really good grandson-grandfather relationship, but I haven’t been part of this football journey,” Archie said.
Arch would disagree, however. While he loves to study Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, Arch says his original inspiration was watching Archie play in the “Book of Manning.” He would go out into the yard and try to emulate Red’s moves. But he also noticed that Archie got hit hard a lot. And that’s the one piece of advice that Archie, who walks with a cane, wants Arch to really take to heart.
“He reminds me pretty much every time I talk to him,” Arch said, “to get down or get out of bounds.”
Every member of the family plays a different role. They humble each other frequently, as any “ManningCast” viewer can attest. Eli loves to remind everybody that Peyton set the NFL record for most interceptions by a rookie. But the family members also are each other’s biggest supporters. Cooper notes how ridiculous it was early in Peyton’s career that he was written off as someone who couldn’t win a championship.
Football is a team sport, and the Mannings are a pretty good team. Archie does the big-picture stuff. Eli and Cooper lived inside the pressure cooker after following their legendary father to Ole Miss; they know how to handle fame. Peyton is the football obsessive who drills down on the details. No matter the problem, Arch has somebody he can ask for guidance.
“I threw a pick in a two-minute drill in the summer, and I texted Peyton, ‘Hey, any advice on how to get better in two-minute?” Arch said. “And it was like a 30-minute voice memo.”
Eli said he keeps it much shorter.
“You can’t try to be someone else. I think Arch is very comfortable in his own skin,” Eli said. “The best piece of advice I’ve ever given Arch is just try to throw it to the guys wearing the same color jersey you’re wearing. If you do that, you’ve got a chance.”
Cooper is the comedian of the family, and Arch’s brother, Heid, got that gift as well. Every member of the family agrees that nobody is having more fun than Heid.
“We go to dinner during the week, kind of a break from football life, and he’s a funny guy, so it’s comedic relief,” Arch said. “I’m blessed to have him at the University of Texas.”
Arch, Cooper and Archie all starred in a recent Waymo commercial for self-driving Ubers. Archie had no idea what they were shooting, just that they were getting together to film something. Arch and Cooper, who was given creative control of the ad, got a kick out of surprising him with the newfangled robot car.
“Really? This is really what we’re doing over here in Austin today?” Archie asked. “I couldn’t believe when it stopped at a stop sign. Blew me away.”
Levity is a key component in the Mannings’ shared DNA. Last year, after Arch’s second start, against Mississippi State, he lamented that he had been tight in his first game against UL Monroe, saying he forgot to have fun.
He said that again Monday, speaking to reporters before he makes his first road start against the defending national champions.
“I’m excited,” Arch said. “I mean this is what I’ve been waiting for. I spent two years not playing, so I might as well go have some fun.”
III. The winding road to Texas
DURING HIS RECRUITMENT, Arch visited a 15-0 Georgia team four times. He did the same with an 11-2 Alabama team. Texas, meanwhile, went 5-7. But Arch liked Steve Sarkisian’s work with quarterbacks and wanted to be part of a resurgence at Texas, a place that had been mired in mediocrity for most of a decade.
“I think he takes a lot of pride in going to Texas, coming off a losing record and being a part of something that’s only getting better,” Cooper said. “That’s when I learned a lot about Arch, not just going and chasing who’s the No. 1 or No. 2 or No. 5 team in the country.”
The Mannings knew Texas. All three of Archie’s sons visited, but they didn’t all have fond memories. The Longhorns had been among Cooper’s first major offers. Then, in December 1991, coach David McWilliams was fired and replaced by John Mackovic, who pulled Cooper’s offer.
Before his senior year, Peyton asked Archie to drive him to schools he wanted to see on unofficial visits. They gave Texas another look and set it up with Mackovic. When the pair got to Austin, Archie said, Mackovic was nowhere to be found. Instead, they met with offensive coordinator Gene Dahlquist, who didn’t even know they were coming.
Peyton asked Dahlquist who else the Longhorns were recruiting and asked if they could watch some film. So the Texas OC, Archie and Peyton watched high school film of other quarterbacks.
“Peyton said, ‘Coach, how do I stack up?'” Archie recalled. “He said, ‘You’re definitely in our top 12.'”
The Mannings know so many people in football that they don’t take sides in rivalries or — generally — hold any slights from the past against schools. They were tight with Mack Brown and his offensive coordinator, Greg Davis, who both had coached at Tulane and knew them well, so Eli gave the Longhorns serious consideration before opting for Ole Miss.
But Archie still says for Texas’ sake, it was probably fortunate that Arch was Cooper’s son and not Peyton’s. “Cooper never held it against them,” he said. “Peyton never forgot that. Anybody that knows Peyton knows that he doesn’t forget.”
Texas fit a specific vision that Arch had for his career. He didn’t want to live life as the most famous man in a small college town. Staying in the state capital and still getting to play SEC football held a greater appeal to him. He wanted to be just one of the guys.
“It’s not like Ty Simpson or Gunner Stockton at Alabama and Georgia, where the whole town rallies around it,” Arch said. “I can go to parts of Austin where no one really cares about [football], which is nice.”
Will Zurik, one of Arch’s best friends and his former running back at Isidore Newman in New Orleans, understands why. He recalled seeing people post pictures and videos of a seventh-grader Arch playing catch with Heid on Instagram. Just a few years later, Zurik said, it wasn’t just social media obsessing over Arch. Things were spilling over into real life. Before their sophomore year, several Newman teammates went to Thibodeaux to the Manning Passing Academy, and Arch came to hang out in their dorm room. Word got out, and all of a sudden, there was a crowd in the hallway.
“A hundred kids were outside, banging on the door trying to get in,” Zurik said. Arch’s teammates shooed them away,
Zurik and another of Arch’s friends, Saint Villere IV, are students in fraternities at Alabama. The budding Texas-Alabama rivalry makes their friendship a source of fascination in Tuscaloosa. They constantly get peppered with questions about growing up with the most famous amateur athlete in America.
“If he didn’t play football, he’d be here drinking beer with us right now,” Zurik told them. “He’s just another kid — that just happens to be really talented and have that last name. He’s the most selfless kid I know.”
But even the Arch defenders are very serious about keeping their superstar friend from getting too cocky. When they talk to him these days, they try to keep the focus off football. They instead keep their sights on what’s most important, like when Arch arrived at SEC media days in a standard-issue Southern fraternity fit.
Arch has nailed the “Kappa Sig president begging university leadership not to kick his frat off campus” look. https://t.co/kItB96Wh7F
– Zach Barnett (@zach_barnett) July 15, 2025
“It looked like a big day, almost game-day pledge attire,” Villere said. “I’d give him a seven, eight out of 10.”
“Definitely going to use some work,” Zurik said. “But looks good. Could use a beer in his hands.”
They can’t scroll Instagram without seeing Arch in an ad for Vuori or Uber or Panini or Red Bull or any of the other brands he represents. Manning even admitted Monday that he has a private Instagram account he uses to browse, and when he sees something in the media about him, he clicks “not interested.”
“I don’t know how many commercials I’ve done, but probably too many,” Arch said. “Probably tired of seeing my face.”
Villere has taken notice as well and offered a suggestion.
“It seems like he’s got a little room for an acting coach, maybe, but it’s all right,” he said.
For Arch, having friends who keep him humble is the antidote to the puzzling amount of attention he gets. He lives with five other Texas players. He has his brother around, plays golf and hangs out at the lake. He wants his friends to keep him in check.
“If I ever start talking about any of this stuff,” Arch said, “they’re like, ‘Oh, you’re being a total weirdo.'”
IV. The Arch experience in Austin
AUSTIN MIGHT OFFER Arch a little respite from crowds in parts of town, but there’s no neighborhood there where the Longhorns are nobodies. Arch might want the typical college experience, but that’s impossible.
He has tried his best to keep a low profile. His news conference appearances hovered in the single digits over the past two seasons. He didn’t land any high-profile NIL deals, other than agreeing to auction off a one-of-a-kind signed card for charity through Panini. It brought in $102,500, eclipsing an exclusive Luka Doncic card that went for $100,000 and making it the most expensive item sold on the company’s platform. There’s nothing that Arch Manning can do to be just another guy.
Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel were off-the-field famous — after they were stars. For Arch, the fame came first, then football. That’s something that none of the Mannings particularly relish.
“The weirdest part of a lot of this is I haven’t done anything, so why am I getting a bunch of cameras in my face?” Arch asked this summer. He seemed perplexed when another reporter asked how careful he has to be not doing shots at a bar.
“I’m 21, so I can do shots at a bar,” he said. Within hours, Athlon Sports posted a story with the headline: “Arch Manning Says He Can Take Shots at the Bar if he Wants.”
Arch got a quick lesson in just how closely he would be watched immediately after arriving at Texas. He lost his student ID, got a FaceTime call from Sarkisian, who was holding up said ID when he answered and asked if he was missing anything. The student who found it had used it to swipe into the football building, walked right into Sarkisian’s office and handed it to him.
“Pretty ballsy,” Arch said.
Then he lost it again shortly thereafter, leading to tweets about his lack of “pocket awareness.” A Reddit post was headlined “Archibald Manning loses his student ID (Again).” When football season came around, fans held up a giant banner of his ID in the crowd.
Arch says he’s good now, because Texas has moved to a fingerprint-based system instead of swiping a card. Still, his dad says he’s not out of the woods yet.
“He can’t lose his fingerprint,” Cooper said. “Well, if someone could lose it, he could lose it.”
And if someone could steal it, they probably would, too. Arch said this summer he didn’t even have an ID anymore to lose, because he thinks someone stole it while he was on vacation in Charleston, South Carolina. And Arch’s name, image and likeness isn’t even safe in Austin institutions.
Dirty Martin’s Place has been slinging burgers since 1926 right off UT’s campus and has become somewhat of an unofficial museum of Longhorn sports. There are paintings of Earl Campbell (who visits at least once a week), old magazine covers featuring legendary quarterback James Street and a photo wall of fame of athletes who visit.
Daniel Young, the general manager at Dirty’s, said his staff fell in love with Arch as soon as he arrived in the spring of his freshman year. He called Arch “a man of the people,” mixing it up at their proud little dive, which was named for originally having dirt floors. They asked Arch for a photo they could mount on their walls.
“He was already a household name,” Young said.
Arch’s picture occupied a prime spot at the front of the restaurant. That is until April 2024, when only a blank space remained where the photo once hung. This was the second time it had gone missing, after some guys took it off the wall and made videos with it before leaving it on a table outside the restaurant. That time, they found the picture within 12 hours. This time, there was no sign of it. Dirty’s offered a reward for the photo’s return via an Instagram post. “Arch is our friend and this was definitely not a nice thing to do,” it said.
Days later, their long nightmare was over. Four students said they found the picture abandoned in an elevator shaft at an apartment complex near campus and returned it, apparently after the streets got too hot. Shelby Burke, Meredith Greer, Anne Blanche Peacock and Georgia Ritchie now have their photo on the wall with Arch’s.
“I could’ve just blown it up again and put it back up,” Young said. “But now it’s kind of become folklore. He’s a fun-loving kid and he couldn’t be just nicer to my staff. And man, I love him.”
Will Colvin, who has manned the grill at Dirty’s for nearly 30 years said he’s fortunate that in his decades at a campus hangout, he’s gotten to know legends, including favorites Campbell, Cedric Benson and Bijan Robinson.
“But I’m going to tell you something,” Colvin said. “This Arch Manning, he stands out. He has this aura about him. He’s going to do great things.”
For Young, it’s time to take protective measures. No matter how Arch and the Longhorns perform against Ohio State, the game tape will be analyzed more than the Zapruder film. A strong performance will send the burnt orange faithful into a frenzy.
“I really need to get that photo bolted to the wall,” Young said.
V. Finally on the field
BRANNDON STEWART, A longtime tech and software entrepreneur in Austin, has watched the newest iteration of Manning mania from an interesting vantage point. In 1994, he was a star Texas high school quarterback who became one of the nation’s top recruits and signed with Tennessee in the same class as Peyton. They roomed together on the road and lived side by side in the dorms as they competed against each other. Stewart played in 11 of the Vols’ 12 games that year. But Peyton started the last eight contests of the season and Stewart saw the writing on the wall.
“Who’s the one person you wouldn’t want to draw to compete against when you show up at college?” Stewart said. “He would certainly be at the top of the list.”
Stewart says it’s funny now that he didn’t know much about the Mannings beforehand, didn’t know how good Peyton was and, growing up in Texas, wasn’t prepared for the intensity of fans in Knoxville. That’s why, he said, he can empathize with how overwhelming the attention must be for Arch. In 1994, there was a strong contingent of Vols fans who thought Stewart, a high school All-American who had rushed for 1,516 yards while winning a state championship for Art Briles at Stephenville High School, was the better fit to replace the similarly athletic Heath Shuler, the third pick in that year’s NFL draft.
“I remember it was like being Troy Aikman in Dallas,” Stewart said. “Everywhere you go, someone knows who you are and they’re asking for your autograph. People were talking about naming their kid after me.”
When Peyton came to Austin last fall to see Arch, he and Stewart went to dinner and saw each other for the first time in 25 years. Stewart said, even as crazy as that 1994 season was for the two of them, he can’t imagine how it would’ve felt with their every move being broadcast every day.
“Back then it seemed like hysteria, but now it’s like ‘Little House on the Prairie,'” Stewart said. “Everything happens so much faster. I’m sure it’s been quite a ride for him. He’s probably pretty well-groomed for it, desensitized to the stuff that happens when you become popular and successful in sports and was able to adapt to it much better than most of us.”
This summer at the MPA, Arch told ESPN he appreciated being able to feel like a “normal person.” He roomed with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier; two of the most famous people in Louisiana walked around a Thibodeaux Walmart buying snacks. He laughed at the social media frenzy around his trip with star wide receiver Ryan Wingo to his hometown of St. Louis.
“He’s a legend down there,” Manning said.” All those kids want to be like Wingo. They know his dance moves, his touchdown celebration.”
It was the ideal scenario for Arch. He was showing up for his teammates, and someone else was the star. Cutcliffe has watched Arch hype up players on the sideline, celebrate with his teammates and self-deprecatingly deflect questions in interviews like when legendary Texas reporter Kirk Bohls, who has covered the Longhorns for more than 50 years, asked Manning if he gets nervous when he plays. “Nah,” he said, smiling at Bohls. “You get nervous?”
“That’s an Archie Manning trait,” Cutcliffe said. “It’s a Cooper, Peyton and Eli trait. They walk into a room and say, ‘There you are,’ rather than ‘Here I am.’ That’s a rare commodity.”
A.J. Milwee, Texas’ co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach who forged a strong bond with Arch and his family while recruiting him and talking nearly every day, said that being raised by football royalty allows Arch to balance all of the excitement surrounding this game.
“He has real competitive fire,” Milwee said. “He can get juiced up, he can get jacked up, but he’s grown up in a world of quarterbacks. As quarterbacks, we’re taught to be flatliners.”
As a kid, Cooper thought Arch might be a wide receiver like him. But when he coached him in flag football, Arch seemed to have more fun throwing the ball to his buddies so they could all catch a lot of passes.
That’s the plan for Saturday.
“Arch has been a quarterback since he was little, running around,” Cooper said. “I think he made the right call. Don’t listen to your parents. Do what comes natural.”
The world awaits Arch’s arrival on the biggest stage. Sarkisian said the one thing that’s most amazing about Arch’s evolution over the past two years is how much he hasn’t changed.
“He’s normal and that’s what I love about him. It’s not some guy who feels like he’s untouchable, he’s better than everybody else,” Sarkisian said. “You can’t go a day without seeing somebody talking about Arch Manning. He’s a direct representation of our football program and this university and … we respect him for the way that he does it.”
But it’s time to see him do it in uniform. And Cooper believes he’s ready.
“What’s the pressure?” Cooper said. “He gets to play. Pressure is when you don’t know what you’re doing. I think he knows what he’s doing.”
ST. LOUIS — First baseman Willson Contreras has been suspended for six games and fined an undisclosed amount for his tirade during the St. Louis Cardinals‘ 7-6 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night.
Contreras has informed Major League Baseball he will appeal the suspension, which means it will not take effect immediately. He was in the lineup for Tuesday night’s game against the Pirates.
Contreras threw a bat that mistakenly hit Cardinals hitting coach Brant Brown and tossed bubble gum on the field after he was ejected. Manager Oliver Marmol also was tossed during an animated argument with the umpires after a called third strike in the seventh inning.
Contreras said he didn’t understand why he was thrown out of the game. He said he argued balls and strikes with plate umpire Derek Thomas but didn’t address a specific pitch and didn’t say anything disrespectful.
“Apparently, he heard something [he thought] I said. I did not say that,” Contreras said.
Crew chief Jordan Baker told a pool reporter that Contreras and Marmol were ejected for “saying vulgar stuff” to Thomas. Baker also said Contreras made contact with the plate umpire.
After Monday’s win, Marmol agreed with his player.
“We’ll have to dive into it to make sure what Willson’s saying is what happened,” he said at the time. “But I believe him.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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