Final 2025 MLB draft rankings: Which college ace is No. 1 in our top 250 prospects?
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Kiley McDaniel
It’s 2025 MLB draft week, so it is time to expand my ranking of the top prospects in this year’s draft class to 250 players.
While my mock draft later this week will attempt to predict which teams will draft specific players, this list is based on how good I think the players actually are.
Behind the scenes, I’ve updated my overall minor league top 100 rankings (here’s my recent top 50) to make adjustments and remove the graduated players, so I can tell you roughly where the top players in the draft would slot on that list the moment they sign. I’ve also included Future Value grades (FV) so you can see where those players would slot in your team’s overall prospects rankings (now updated monthly). I’ve also included present and future tool grades for all of the players with a 45-plus FV or better.
This year’s class is highlighted by a group of college left-handed pitchers near the top of the rankings. Which one is No. 1? It’s time to find out.
More draft coverage: Mock draft 2.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: July 13 at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
55 FV tier
1. Kade Anderson (21.0), LHP, LSU
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 25
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His durability doesn’t continue to progress, his stuff and/or command dips below 55-grade and he’s a back-end starter.
Anderson had Tommy John surgery in high school that took him off the trajectory he was on as an underclassman, to be a seven-figure prospect out of high school. He’s eligible as a sophomore because of his age and showed flashes during the 2024 season as a freshman but threw only 38⅓ innings.
Entering this season, he was seen as a speculative comp/second-round prospect because of his lack of history. Then, he struck out 180 hitters this spring as the ace for national champs, not that far behind Paul Skenes’ 209 strikeouts on a similar journey at LSU.
Anderson’s elbow surgery and slighter frame make some evaluators hesitate about his long-term ability to post 180-plus innings as a potential frontline starter. The other hesitation is he has more good, above-average stuff than truly standout plus or better stuff. Max Fried is a name that comes up a lot, as a similarly framed lefty who overcame those questions and has a similar ability to create four or more good, distinct shapes and hit spots with some precision.
Given the track record of ACC/SEC aces taken in the top 10 picks rushing to the big leagues of late, Anderson is seen as a likely quick-mover who might need only slight tweaks — throwing his slider out of the zone more for chases, throwing his curveball a tick or two harder, maybe adding/tweaking his pitch shapes slightly, making a timing tweak or adding muscle to deliver a little more velocity — to reach his potential.
Chase Burns (No. 2 pick last year) was a better draft prospect, but I think Anderson is right there with Hagen Smith (No. 5 last year) as a draft prospect. I’m not worried Anderson will go down the path of other top-10-pick lefty college starters who became MLB relievers (A.J. Puk, Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Miller) because of his feel to execute. Also, his supinator lean (like Fried) gives him more avenues to find new shapes to attack hitters, while his left-handedness and polish give some margin for error.
2. Ethan Holliday (18.3), SS, Stillwater HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit
Hit: 25/45, Game Power: 30/65, Raw Power: 60/70, Speed: 45/40, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 31
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His hit tool is closer to a 40 (.230ish hitter), and the lower contact rate limits his power upside to around 20 homers.
I’ve taken a journey when it comes to Holliday over the past year, from being lower on him than the industry consensus until the middle of this spring, then eventually coming around to rank him basically where the vast majority has him — as virtually a co-No. 1 in the class with Anderson. I broke down that journey in detail here after I scouted him this spring, and I also wrote a feature about him and fellow prospect Eli Willits in which Holliday explained how he lived that journey that I scouted without me even asking him about it directly.
The short version is Holliday hasn’t performed that well in the summer, when the best pitchers in the class face the best hitters — who hit with wood bats. That period is seen as the best proxy for pro ball, and teams weigh it heavily in their draft models because it is proven to be predictive.
I noticed Holliday didn’t pull a fastball in any of the games charted by Synergy last summer, and his timing with his hands seemed to be to blame. He fixed that this spring but wasn’t facing much pro-level velocity, so it isn’t battle tested, though it looks like he’s now ready to perform at the level of his tools. Teams that are heavily model oriented don’t think Holliday belongs up here because of his weaker summer performance and unproven timing adjustment.
I’m now most of the way to believing he’ll live up to his tools but that he will be something like a .250 hitter with a strong walk rate and 25-30 homers while playing an above-average defensive third base.
There’s still some risk in that projection, so that’s why I give Anderson the slight edge right now. Because there’s a larger-than-normal error bar on my Holliday projection, he could move up significantly on my pro top 100 ranking if he demolishes A-Ball like his brother Jackson did; the potential is there to be the top prospect in this draft class and in all of baseball if it clicks like some expect.
3. Eli Willits (17.6), SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK), Oklahoma commit
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 40/50, Speed: 60/55, Fielding: 45/55, Throwing: 55/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 37
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His athleticism backs up a tick and he’s a 10-15 homer type playing second base.
I’ve written a lot about Willits this spring, from detailing why he’s in the mix at the top of the draft despite medium tools and profiling him and fellow Oklahoman Holliday’s journey to this point — like how Willits moved hay bales on his family’s ranch the day before I spoke to him. The short version is Willits is another in the line of medium-framed, medium-tooled players with excellent performance and skills that the industry tends to overlook.
I pounded the drum about this with Kevin McGonigle and hit a home run on that call; he’s now a top-15 prospect in the game after getting the 31st-highest bonus in the 2023 draft as the 37th pick after I ranked him 21st predraft.
Willits is younger, faster and a better defender than McGonigle at the same point, so there’s even more here. Willits’ upside is becoming one of the better hitters for average and on-base in the majors, with 20/20 potential as a shortstop — still not the face of the sport but one of the top 20 players in the league.
50 FV tier
4. Seth Hernandez (19.0), RHP, Corona HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 40/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 60/70, Command: 40/50
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 43
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His velocity slips a bit, the fastball and breaking pitches play average at best and he begins to pitch backward, as a streaky back-end starter or two-pitch reliever.
Hernandez could be the rare prep righty to go high in the draft and go wire-to-wire becoming an ace, similar to fellow two-way SoCal standout Hunter Greene, but this player demographic is seen as the riskiest in the draft because the hits are less frequent than you might think while the busts are spectacular and numerous.
Hernandez is also a comp/second-round prospect as a third baseman, similar to Green or Jared Jones (another two-way SoCal standout now finding success in a big league rotation), and has been a fireballer with athleticism and a standout changeup for a while. This spring his curveball and slider both improved from both being below-average pitches, with the curveball the better of the two, to flashing above average at times.
There are theories in pitching development circles that standout position players (check; I detail the long list of examples here), changeup-forward pitchers (check again), and above-average athletes (three for three!) are the three most important markers for developing from where Hernandez is now to making the adjustments necessary to be a big league ace. Others say that fastball shape and breaking ball/spin capacity are keys though and those are the two spots that Hernandez is notably below average.
Some GMs/presidents have told their draft rooms that they will never take a prep righty in the top 10 picks under any circumstances — at least one of those teams is picking in the top 10 this year, and I think there are a few. Hernandez might be the best prep righty prospect in over a decade, or … well, I’d rather be optimistic.
5. Jamie Arnold (21.2), LHP, Florida State
Fastball: 45/55, Cutter: 40/50, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 51
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His fastball plays average, he pitches backward, and his command isn’t fine enough to be a No. 2/No. 3 starter, so he’s a solid backend type instead.
I have Arnold and Doyle ranked back-to-back on the pro top 100 because they’re very different versions of a generically similar thing: an accomplished college lefty starter.
Arnold throws from a low slot that gives him a number of advantages and is the type of pitcher some teams love to stockpile in their minor leagues. He has a flatter approach angle that allows him to get a solid plane for his four-seam fastball but also a lower slot that gets more dive on his sinker and changeup along with letting him get around the ball to generate above-average sweep on his slider.
Facing him is an uncomfortable at-bat that became harder this year as his changeup and cutter became bigger parts of his arsenal.
The hesitations are that Arnold’s fastball got hit a little too hard, his cutter is just an OK pitch that he needs to bridge his heater and slider, and he has more control (throwing it over the plate) than command (hitting spots). He could be a No. 2/No. 3 starter with three above-to-plus pitches if it clicks, but there’s still some work to do.
6. Liam Doyle (21.0), LHP, Tennessee
Fastball: 60/65, Cutter: 50/55, Slider: 45/50, Splitter: 45/55, Command: 40/50
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 52
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His frame/delivery/approach doesn’t allow him to turn over a lineup, so he pitches 60 to 100 inning per year with some impact in a lesser role.
Doyle was a second-round follow after last season, then burst onto the scene this spring throwing harder and more strikes and showing crisper off-speed stuff. Scouts still hesitate given the effort of his delivery, his heavy fastball usage, the fact that his stuff can fade a bit late in games and his poor performances down the stretch.
That said, his fastball could probably get big league hitters out right now, and he can throw it in the right part of the zone. His cutter and splitter are both above average, so you could argue that the fastball usage and control (throwing it over the plate) over command (hitting spots) can both be fixed almost immediately.
The question then becomes whether his general power approach to pitching and delivery with some effort will hold him back from turning over a lineup and make him a reliever. Doyle might be in the big leagues in the first half of 2026 in shorter stints while he’s looking to answer that question. Some teams like the idea of an immediate return on their pick with a shot for a home run if he then can prove he’s a starter, similar to what former Vols lefty Garrett Crochet did.
7. JoJo Parker (18.8), SS, Purvis HS (MS), Mississippi State commit
Hit: 30/60, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 45/55, Speed: 50/45, Fielding: 40/45, Throwing: 55/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? He’s a tick worse offensively than expected, say .260 with 15 homers, while playing second/third base.
Parker has steadily climbed from a second- or third-rounder last summer to a late first-rounder early in the spring to now a clear top-10 prospect in the class.
The sales pitch is clear: Many evaluators think he’s a 70-grade hitter with 70-grade makeup, excellent performance and polish, while everything else he does is around average.
Parker is not the biggest, strongest or fastest but could be one of the rare players who is such a good hitter that it floats his whole profile, helping him get to all of his solid-average raw power (roughly 20 homers annually), and then if he ends up at second/third base long term, he’d offer some of the upside of a high school player with some of the certainty of a college player. His twin brother, Jacob, is a seven-figure prospect this year (ranked 99th below), and some teams have shown a willingness to draft them both.
8. Billy Carlson (19.0), SS, Corona HS (CA), Tennessee commit
Hit: 30/50, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 50/55, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 50/60, Throwing: 80/80
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 85
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? The offensive adjustments don’t take, and he has to choose hit or power but can’t be average to above average at both, despite the raw tools
Carlson has been one of the top players in the class for years and physically looks like a lesser version of Bobby Witt Jr. because of his bouncy athleticism in all phases. Carlson is in the mid-90s on the mound, has one of the best infield arms I’ve ever seen and projects as a plus defender at shortstop. His batting practice is impressive, with above average-to-plus raw power projection. He has above-average bat speed and, while his run times are inconsistent, he has shown above-average speed at times.
So you might be wondering why he isn’t ranked higher. It’s the accumulation of some smaller quibbles. His swing is too big (his hands get too far away from his body for some scouts to think he can hit pro pitching with those mechanics). Konnor Griffin had a much bigger question about his swing in last year’s draft (could he change his path through the zone?) and has already fixed it, so Carlson’s issue isn’t seen as huge, but teams want certainty in the top 10 picks.
If and when it’s fixed, that will probably undermine his raw power a bit, and some evaluators are wary of projecting him to be average or better as both a hitter and power hitter, thinking he’ll eventually have to choose one as he progresses through the minors.
On top of that is his age, which is a big historical negative factor to the point that many analytically minded teams wouldn’t consider him in this tier. Adding all of these things together is making teams pause enough, but don’t forget Carlson could be above average to plus at almost everything on the field if it all clicks.
9. Aiva Arquette (21.7), SS, Oregon State
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 60/60
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 95
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? He slides over to third base and is a .230 or .240 hitter with a worse-than-average walk rate, which limits his power upside to 18-20 homers per year.
At 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Arquette still has a chance to stick at shortstop, though it would be more as an acceptable, average defender, and most teams like to have an above-average defender at the position.
The other question on Arquette is tied to his bat-to-ball and pitch selection, which are both average at best, and that makes some sense given his size and big power.
Arquette could be a big league shortstop who hits 25-30 homers, or he could be a third baseman who hits .235 with 18-20 homers. He’s a big leaguer and almost certainly a useful one, but there’s still some uncertainty.
45-plus FV tier
10. Kyson Witherspoon (20.9), RHP, Oklahoma
Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 50/60, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His delivery/arm action doesn’t allow for his command to improve, and his fastball/cutter play more 55-grade than 60-grade, so he’s a back-end starter or reliever.
Witherspoon (along with his brother, Malachi, ranked below) was a bit of a prospect out of high school in Florida but then fell off the radar as his velo slipped down the stretch, and he went to junior college. He reemerged in the past year as he remade his delivery and arm action, causing a spike in stuff and performance.
His shorter arm circle looks like Dylan Cease or Lucas Giolito, while his arsenal is very similar to Gage Wood (ranked below), with a four-seam fastball; hard cutter; and big, power curveball as their primary pitches. I tend to like betting on pitchers with athleticism, a hard-breaking pitch and an upward development trajectory, and Witherspoon fits. Some scouts think he’s on the verge of making a big jump.
11. Ike Irish (21.6), RF, Auburn
Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 35/55, Raw Power: 50/55, Speed: 40/40, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? He’s a good-not-great hitter with medium power (.260 with 15-18 homers) who is streaky enough as a corner outfielder to get platooned
Irish entered the spring as an offensive catcher with real questions about his defense and the need for a big spring to prove to scouts that he was the hitter they hoped he’d be. He delivered offensively with some of the best in-conference numbers in the SEC and comes with other indicators that analytical draft models love: long track record in the best conference, left-handed hitter, has a secondary position that’s more valuable and was a real prospect out of high school.
Some teams think he’s a 60-grade hitter (I think that’s a touch aggressive) with 55-grade power and plus makeup who also might be able to catch, at least as a backup who moves around the diamond based on matchups.
He has a lot of interest in the top 10 picks, likely on a deal, and most teams think he lands a few spots higher than I have him ranked. Irish is a classic lower-ceiling/higher-floor pick teams like to make with savings when their targeted players aren’t available, akin to James Tibbs at the 13th pick last year.
12. Gavin Fien (18.2), 3B, Great Oak HS (CA), Texas commit
Hit: 25/55, Game Power: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Fielding: 40/50, Throwing: 55/55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His uneven spring is more indicative of his future, and he has a below-average hit tool that limits the power and makes the corner profile tough to fill.
Fien had arguably the best pure hit/power combo on the summer circuit last year and has grown into plus projections for his raw power along with enough defensive ability to stick at third base. I basically had him ranked here entering the spring based on that and have chosen to leave him here despite a rough spring that has confused scouts.
The players couldn’t be more different, but James Wood had a similar situation — good summer, bad spring, but the tools and swing were the same — and scouts had trouble ignoring what they saw in the spring, and now he is an All-Star. Aidan Miller was somewhat similar, and he is now a top-25 prospect in the sport.
That bias is easy to understand when a room full of scouts have only mixed/negative things to say spread over a dozen looks that cost their team 10s of thousands of dollars. Why would they go to games in the spring to just ignore what they saw? I get the benefit of not having seen Fien in person since the summer and thus taking a more 30,000-foot view. That might not be the correct way to evaluate him, but I feel like I’ve read this story before.
13. Steele Hall (17.9), SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL), Tennessee commit
Hit: 25/50, Game Power: 25/50, Raw Power: 40/50, Speed: 70/70, Fielding: 45/55, Throwing: 55/55
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? His contact ability is at the low end of expectations, so he’s more of a utility guy with some speed/defense and tools that he can’t quite get onto the stat sheet
Hall reclassified from the 2026 class last fall, so he’s one of the youngest players who will be picked on Day 1, a huge positive indicator historically speaking. I’ve compared his ability to pack tools into a smaller frame (5-foot-11, maybe shorter) and also lift/pull the ball in games to Anthony Volpe, Jett Williams and Trea Turner.
Hall has shown enough yellow flag swing-and-miss at times over the past year that some teams have him in the back half of the first round; others say he’s a little too aggressive when ahead in the count, and that issue is easily fixable. I’m on the high side.
45 FV tier
14. Brendan Summerhill (21.7), CF, Arizona
15. Wehiwa Aloy (21.4), SS, Arkansas
16. Gage Wood (21.5), RHP, Arkansas
17. Josh Hammond (18.8), SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC), Wake Forest commit
18. Tyler Bremner (21.2), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
19. Daniel Pierce (18.9), SS, Mill Creek HS (GA), Georgia commit
20. Gavin Kilen (21.2), SS, Tennessee
21. Jace Laviolette (21.6), CF, Texas A&M
22. Marek Houston (21.2), SS, Wake Forest
23. Caden Bodine (21.6), C, Coastal Carolina
24. Andrew Fischer (21.0), 3B, Tennessee
25. Kayson Cunningham (19.0), SS, Johnson HS (TX), Texas commit
26. Xavier Neyens (18.7), 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA), Oregon State commit
27. Cam Cannarella (21.8), CF, Clemson
28. Dax Kilby (18.6), SS, Newnan HS (GA), Clemson commit
29. Kruz Schoolcraft (18.2), LHP, Sunset HS (OR), Tennessee commit
30. Ethan Conrad (21.0), RF, Wake Forest
31. Jaden Fauske (18.7), RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL), LSU commit
32. Aaron Watson (18.5), RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL), Florida commit
33. Patrick Forbes (20.9), RHP, Louisville
34. Slater de Brun (18.1), CF, Summit HS (OR), Vanderbilt commit
35. Sean Gamble (18.9), 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit
36. Quentin Young (18.2), 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA), LSU commit
37. Tate Southisene (18.8), SS, Basic HS (NV), USC commit
Summerhill’s exit velos were 55-grade (something like 20-25 homers annually in pro ball) last spring and summer, then were just above 40-grade (10-15 homers annually) this spring, but there wasn’t a clear injury or mechanical change to explain it. Some teams think he could revert back to that old level of power and will be an average defensive center fielder; that player would rank somewhere around No. 5 to No. 8 on this list if that had happened this spring.
I don’t think Aloy is that far behind Arquette, and they might be a fun duo to track going forward because every team I’ve asked has them ranked this way, but the margins between them as players are very small. Aloy’s teammate Wood would rank right with Liam Doyle and Jamie Arnold if he was healthy and posting the whole spring, but he has had shoulder issues in the past, so teams are operating like he is a definite reliever who might start. If those concerns are unfounded, he’ll be a steal.
Hammond is my third pound-the-table player this year behind Willits and Fien. There are some teams picking in the twenties that are very interested, while some have no interest and there’s spottier interest in the teens. He looked like a young Austin Riley last summer as a standout, right-handed two-way talent who wasn’t getting much position-player scouting attention but outperformed others who were. This spring, he slimmed down, got stronger and looked like prime Josh Donaldson, with 65- or 70-grade raw power, a solid shortstop glove and limited range that will likely slide him over to third base. Hammond visually looked like a power-over-hit type with this adjustment, and his spring was just OK (yes, like Fien) but in large part because he faced awful pitching. Hammond was up to 97 this spring, and his teammate Sam Cozart was also regularly in the mid-90s, but Hammond never faced anyone like that this spring. A summer performer who got even toolsier but didn’t give scouts the spring look they wanted, though he’s still the same guy, if not better than he was in the summer.
The biggest risk to end up not signing in this group is Schoolcraft. There are a handful of teams that I think would pay him a bonus in line with slots in the twenties (which I think is the asking price), but there are also a number of teams that aren’t close to that because of concerns about his breaking ball. The Padres and White Sox are his two most rumored landing spots.
There are probably a few high school prospects in this range who will get pushed beyond the top 40 picks, but they should all get bonuses commensurate with the areas where I have them ranked.
I know some people are reading this wondering who is the sleeper with star potential but is ranked lower. Your guy is Quentin Young. He’s a nephew of former big leaguers Dmitri and Delmon, has true 80-grade power potential and can play third base if not shortstop, but he had the worst contact rate of any prospect last summer. You have to believe he’s an outlier who has outlier skills and also can make outlier adjustments. The Padres and Dodgers seem to be all over him, which helps me believe. Neyens is a lefty hitter with 70-grade power and can also play third base, with shades of Joey Gallo.
40-plus FV tier
38. Luke Stevenson (21.0), C, North Carolina
39. Devin Taylor (21.5), LF, Indiana
40. Marcus Phillips (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
41. Riley Quick (21.1), RHP, Alabama
42. J.B. Middleton (21.6), RHP, Southern Miss
43. Mason Neville (21.5), CF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher (19.3), RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN), Indiana commit
45. Anthony Eyanson (20.8), RHP, LSU
46. Josh Owens (18.5), SS, Providence Academy HS (TN), Georgia Southern commit
47. J.D. Thompson (21.8), LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Zach Root (21.4), LHP, Arkansas
49. Malachi Witherspoon (20.9), RHP, Oklahoma
50. Michael Oliveto (18.4), C, Hauppauge HS (NY), Yale commit
This is a fascinating group of players who should go in the comp to early second round. Phillips has a 20-grade arm action in the opinion of some scouts, while with some command progress he could be a frontline starter with four plus pitches. Quick is a former four-star offensive tackle prospect who could have five plus pitches, but he has already had Tommy John surgery and his command is below average.
Owens and Oliveto were both late risers who are big with plus raw power from the left side and have a shot to play a premium position but also haven’t been high-profile summer performers for years like some others ranked around here. And yes, Malachi is Kyson’s twin brother.
40 FV tier
51. Cooper Flemming (18.9), SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit
52. Nick Becker (18.6), SS, Don Bosco HS (NJ), Virginia commit
53. Josiah Hartshorn (18.4), LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA), Texas A&M commit
54. Kane Kepley (21.3), CF, North Carolina
55. Brock Sell (18.7), CF, Tokay HS (CA), Stanford commit
56. Jordan Yost (18.5), SS, Sickles HS (FL), Florida commit
57. Max Belyeu (21.5), RF, Texas
58. Mitch Voit (20.9), 2B, Michigan
59. Alex Lodise (21.4), SS, Florida State
60. Charles Davalan (21.6), LF, Arkansas
61. Jack Bauer (18.5), LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (IL), Mississippi State commit
62. Jake Cook (22.0), CF, Southern Miss
63. Brandon Compton (21.7), LF, Arizona State
64. Ryan Mitchell (18.5), SS, Houston HS (TN), Georgia Tech commit
65. Taitn Gray (17.8), C, Grimes Community HS (IA), Oregon commit
66. Angel Cervantes (17.8), RHP, Warren HS (CA), UCLA commit
67. A.J. Russell (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
68. Chase Shores (21.0), RHP, LSU
69. Coy James (18.3), SS, Davie County HS (NC), Ole Miss commit
70. Alec Blair (18.7), CF, De La Salle HS (CA), Oklahoma commit
71. Mason Pike (18.9), RHP, Puyallup HS (WA), Oregon State commit
72. Cam Appenzeller (18.5), LHP, Glenwood HS (IL), Tennessee commit
73. Briggs McKenzie (18.8), LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC), LSU commit
74. Dean Moss (19.1), CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), LSU commit
75. Ethan Petry (21.0), 1B, South Carolina
76. Landon Harmon (18.8), RHP, East Union HS (MS), Mississippi State commit
77. Easton Carmichael (21.7), C, Oklahoma
78. Dean Curley (21.1), 3B, Tennessee
79. Lucas Franco (18.1), SS, Cinco Ranch HS (TX), TCU commit
80. Aiden Stillman (18.6), LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit
81. Jayden Stroman (18.1), RHP, Patchogue-Medford HS (NY), Duke commit
82. Cade Obermueller (22.0), LHP, Iowa
83. Kyle Lodise (21.8), SS, Georgia Tech
84. Daniel Dickinson (21.5), 2B, LSU
85. Miguel Sime Jr. (18.1), RHP, Poly Prep Country Day HS (NY), LSU commit
86. Gavin Turley (21.7), LF, Oregon State
87. Joseph Dzierwa (21.1), LHP, Michigan State
88. Korbyn Dickerson (21.7), CF, Indiana
89. James Ellwanger (21.0), RHP, Dallas Baptist
90. Cade Crossland (21.4), LHP, Oklahoma
91. Brian Curley (22.0), RHP, Georgia
92. Gustavo Melendez (17.8), SS, Colegio La Merced HS (PR), Wake Forest commit
93. Michael Lombardi (21.9), RHP, Tulane
94. Sam Horn (21.8), RHP, Missouri
95. Kaleb Wing (18.5), RHP, Scotts Valley HS (CA), Loyola Marymount commit
96. J.T. Quinn (21.1), RHP, Georgia
97. Aidan West (18.1), SS, Long Reach HS (MD), North Carolina State commit
98. Johnny Slawinski (18.3), LHP, Johnson City HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
99. Jacob Parker (18.8), CF, Purvis HS (MS), Mississippi State commit
100. Henry Godbout (21.7), 2B, Virginia
101. R.J. Austin (21.6), CF, Vanderbilt
102. Max Williams (20.9), RF, Florida State
103. Micah Bucknam (21.9), RHP, Dallas Baptist
104. Henry Ford (21.0), LF, Virginia*
105. Drew Faurot (21.7), 2B, Florida State
106. Cam Leiter (21.4), RHP, Florida State
107. Talon Haley (19.5), LHP, Lewisburg HS (MS), Vanderbilt commit
108. Marcos Paz (18.7), RHP, Hebron HS (TX), LSU commit
109. Frank Cairone (17.8), LHP, Delsea Regional HS (NJ), Coastal Carolina commit
110. Parker Rhodes (18.8), RHP, Greenfield Central HS (IN), Mississippi State commit
111. Tanner Franklin (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
112. James Quinn-Irons (22.0), CF, George Mason
113. Mason Ligenza (18.4), CF, Tamaqua Area HS (PA), Pitt commit
114. Will Rhine (18.1), SS, John Carroll HS (MD), Alabama commit
115. Brady Ebel (17.9), 3B, Corona HS (CA), LSU commit
116. Ethan Hedges (21.2), 3B, USC
117. Tim Piasentin (18.3), 3B, Foothills Composite HS (CAN), Miami commit
118. C.J. Gray (18.4), RHP, A.L. Brown HS (NC), North Carolina State commit
119. Brayden Jaksa (18.4), C, Irvington HS (CA), Oregon commit
120. Trent Caraway (21.2), 3B, Oregon State
121. Reagan Ricken (18.8), RHP, Great Oak HS (CA), LSU commit
122. Nathan Hall (21.9), CF, South Carolina
123. Brock Ketelsen (18.0), CF, Valley Christian HS (CA), Stanford commit
124. Jase Mitchell (18.8), C, Cape Henlopen HS (DE), Kentucky commit
125. Griffin Enis (18.8), CF, Corinth HS (MS), Duke commit
126. Rory Fox (21.4), RHP, Notre Dame
127. Shane Sdao (21.8), LHP, Texas A&M
128. Jared Spencer (22.0), LHP, Texas
129. Sean Youngerman (21.0), RHP, Oklahoma State
130. Mason Morris (21.9), RHP, Ole Miss
131. Antonio Jimenez (21.1), SS, UCF
132. Ethan Frey (21.3), RF, LSU
133. Murf Gray (21.6), 3B, Fresno State
134. Blaine Bullard (18.9), CF, Klein Cain HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
135. Michael Winter (18.0), RHP, Shawnee Mission East HS (KS), Dartmouth commit
136. Nolan Schubart (21.1), 1B, Oklahoma State
137. Ethan Rogers (18.2), LHP, Lone Jack HS (MO), Wichita State commit
138. Luke Hill (21.3), 3B, Ole Miss
139. Cade Kurland (21.3), 2B, Florida
140. Cooper Underwood (18.5), LHP, Allatoona HS (GA), Georgia Tech commit
141. Ben Jacobs (21.1), LHP, Arizona State
142. Colby Shelton (22.6), SS, Florida
143. Nico Partida (18.7), SS/RHP, Pearland HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
144. Riley Kelly (21.1), RHP, UC Irvine
145. William Patrick (19.0), CF, St. Frederick HS (LA), LSU commit
* signifies the player has committed to another school in the portal.
Some high schoolers known to be very tough signs are Brock Sell, Jayden Stroman, Marco Paz, Reagan Ricken, Brock Ketelsen and Nico Partida. Closer to 50/50 odds to sign are: Nick Becker, Jordan Yost, Jack Bauer, Ryan Mitchell, Alec Blair, Cam Appenzeller, Aiden Stillman, Parker Rhodes and Michael Winter. There are some others with $1 million to $1.5 million bonus demands that I think will be met, but there are always a handful of players with a smaller group of teams on them, and those teams just run out of money before they can pay all of their targets.
On the college side, Henry Ford committed to Tennessee in the portal and Cade Kurland is widely expected to return to Florida. Henry Godbout also has some chance to return to school, but most of the other college players are expected to sign without a hitch.
Jacob Parker is JoJo’s twin brother and, yes, one half of the Parker brothers.
If you read my breakdown here (search for “Mickey Moniak”), I think this draft might have a disproportionate number of stars in the late second round and later, like the 2016 draft, so let’s try to find some prospects with traits that fit historical breakout types.
Some potential quick movers (polished college arms with some traits that suggest shorter stints/relief): A.J. Russell, Chase Shores, Cade Obermueller, Brian Curley and Mason Morris.
Some college relievers or split duty types that teams want to start: Tanner Franklin, J.T. Quinn. Sean Youngerman, Sam Horn and Michael Lombardi.
And some injured pitchers: Jared Spencer (shoulder), Cam Leiter (elbow), Shane Sdao (elbow) and Marcos Paz (just returned from elbow surgery but has thrown only bullpens).
Lastly, let’s jump into some huge upside guys and sleepers to keep an eye on, first with high schoolers.
Prep LHP Jack Bauer hit 103 mph this spring (the hardest high school pitch ever thrown) and has a plus-plus slurve/sweeper, but he also walked a ton of hitters, so some teams aren’t interested at a seven-figure price and some might be willing to take him in the comp/second round for big money. Josiah Hartshorn was a hit-first corner type who grew into big power this spring. Ryan Mitchell offers a lower-tier version of the Eli Willits toolset. Taitn Gray has plus-plus raw power and standout athletic testing, and he might be able to catch but hasn’t faced much high-end pitching.
I didn’t love my look at Coy James this spring, but he’s an infielder with plus power, and I think he’ll go in the comp round. Cam Appenzeller looked like a first-rounder last summer and had a terrible spring but could still emerge in the next few years. Miguel Sime is up to 100 mph, and his offspeed pitches have really progressed this year.
The low-seven-figure prep lefty group — Briggs McKenzie, Aiden Stillman, Johnny Slawinski, Talon Haley, Frank Cairone, Cooper Underwood and Ethan Rogers — is deep and probably has a few standout big leaguers. C.J. Gray is one of the most athletic and loose prospects in the draft and had 20-grade command early this spring but really came on late. I’ll hold my breath, but that isn’t wildly different from Jacob Misiorowski’s early journey.
On the college side, Jake Cook is an 80-grade runner who converted from pitching, can really put the bat on the ball and has lots of second-round interest — sort of like Chandler Simpson did a few years ago. James Ellwanger improved the mediocre shape of his fastball late in the season, adding a few inches of vertical movement, and now has late second-round buzz, because he has always been big and physical with mid-90s velocity and multiple swing-and-miss breaking pitches.
Michael Lombardi was my semi-secret reliever-to-starter conversion pick early in the spring, but the industry has come around and there is a chance he also goes in the second round. J.T. Quinn was one player I got on board with later in the spring, but then he shoved as a starter on the Cape and now teams are jumping on board with that idea, too. Cade Crossland wasn’t completely optimized in college and has a shot to be a No. 3 starter with some tweaks. Sam Horn has an above-average sinker/slider combo but a fresh arm because of elbow surgery and playing quarterback at Missouri. Rory Fox is another pitcher with two-way history who showed a starter fit and flashes of above-average stuff, but his stuff tailed off down the stretch.
Shortstop Antonio Jimenez draws extremely varied responses from the industry but should go around the fourth round and could develop into a power-over-hit shortstop with a shot to play a big league role. Ethan Frey came out of nowhere to be one of the best hitters for LSU and has some history catching; he’ll be taken as a DH with a short track record of success but might be more than that.
35-plus FV tier
146. C.J. Hughes (17.8), SS, Junipero Serra HS (CA), UC Santa Barbara commit
147. Landyn Vidourek (21.6), RF, Cincinnati
148. Colin Yeaman (21.2), SS, UC Irvine
149. Davion Hickson (21.8), RHP, Rice*
150. Jacob Morrison (21.9), RHP, Coastal Carolina
151. Ty Harvey (19.0), C, Inspiration Academy HS (FL), Florida State commit
152. Uli Fernsler (17.9), LHP, Novi HS (MI), TCU commit
153. Dean Livingston (18.9), RHP, Hebron Christian HS (GA), Georgia commit
154. Justin Lamkin (21.0), LHP, Texas A&M
155. Mason White (21.8), SS, Arizona
156. Jaiden LoRe (18.4), SS, Corona Del Sol HS (AZ), BYU commit
157. Ethin Bingaman (18.8), RF/RHP, Corona HS (CA), Auburn commit
158. Remo Indomenico (18.0), CF, First Academy HS (FL), Oklahoma State commit
159. Ethan Grim (18.0), RHP, Governor Mifflin HS (PA), Virginia Tech commit
160. Will Hynes (18.0), RHP, Lorne Park HS (CAN), Wake Forest commit
161. Jason Reitz (21.0), RHP, Oregon
162. Trent Grindlinger (19.0), C, Huntington Beach HS (CA), Mississippi State commit
163. Xavier Mitchell (19.0), LHP, Prestonwood Christian HS (TX), Texas commit
164. Cam Maldonado (21.7), CF, Northeastern
165. Caden Hunter (21.8), LHP, USC
166. Matt Barr (19.5), RHP, Niagara County JC (NY), Tennessee commit
167. Adonys Guzman (21.6), C, Arizona
168. Kaeden Kent (21.9), SS, Texas A&M
169. Aaron Walton (21.3), CF, Arizona
170. Ben Abeldt (21.6), LHP, TCU
171. Angel Laya (18.8), RF, Eastlake HS (CA), Oregon commit
172. Ty Peeples (18.8), CF, Franklin County HS (GA), Georgia commit
173. Reid Worley (19.0), RHP, Cherokee HS (GA), Kennesaw State commit
174. Brent Iredale (22), 3B, Arkansas
175. Josh Flores (18.0), RHP, Lake Central HS (IN), Kentucky commit
176. Brett Crossland (18.9), RHP, Corona Del Sol HS (AZ), Texas commit
177. Sean Episcope (21.4), RHP, Princeton
178. John Stuetzer (18.8), CF, Pope HS (GA), Florida State commit
179. Matt Ferrara (18.0), SS, Toms River East HS (NJ), Pitt commit
180. Chris Arroyo (20.9), 1B, Virginia
181. Tre Phelps (21.0), RF, Georgia
182. Jake Munroe (21.9), 3B, Louisville
183. Gavin Lauridsen (18.6), RHP, Foothill HS (CA), USC commit
184. River Hamilton (18.8), RHP, Barlow HS (OR), LSU commit
185. Brendan Brock (20.9), C, Southwestern Illinois JC, Oklahoma commit
186. Aidan Teel (21.0), CF, Virginia*
187. Jacob McCombs (21.0), CF, UC Irvine
188. Jack Gurevitch (21.4), 1B, San Diego
189. Lorenzo Meola (21.7), SS, Stetson
190. Cameron Millar (18.1), RHP, Alhambra HS (CA), Arizona commit
191. Richie Bonomolo Jr. (21.8), CF, Alabama
192. Jack Lafflam (18.8), RHP, Brophy Prep HS (AZ), Arizona commit
193. Caleb Leys (22.0), LHP, Maine
194. Eli Pitts (18.7), CF, Parkview HS (GA), USF commit
195. Anthony Martinez (21.2), 1B, UC Irvine
196. Cody Bowker (21.7), RHP, Vanderbilt
197. Nick Dumesnil (21.3), CF, Cal Baptist
198. Ethan Moore (18.8), SS, Oak Park & River Forest HS (IL), Tennessee commit
199. Karson Bowen (21.0), C, TCU
200. Conor Essenburg (18.8), RF/LHP, Lincoln-Way West HS (IL), Kentucky commit
201. Michael Salina (21.5), RHP, St. Bonaventure
202. Josh Tate (21.9), CF, Georgia Southern
203. Griffin Hugus (21.4), RHP, Miami
204. Josh Jannicelli (18.2), RHP, Cardinal Newman HS (CA), UC Santa Barbara commit
205. Ryan Wideman (21.7), CF, Western Kentucky*
206. Justin Mitrovich (21.8), RHP, Elon
207. Carson Brumbaugh (18.8), SS, Edmond Santa Fe HS (OK), Arkansas commit
208. Blake Gillespie (21.8), RHP, Charlotte
209. Brooks Bryan (21.0), C, Troy
210. Hudson Barrett (21.5), LHP, UC Santa Barbara
211. Nelson Keljo (21.9), LHP, Oregon State
212. Nick Monistere (21.5), 2B, Southern Miss
213. Joe Ariola (21.5), LHP, Wake Forest
214. Jake Clemente (21.7), RHP, Florida
215. Landon Hodge (18.4), C, Crespi Carmelite HS (CA), LSU commit
216. Linkin Garcia (19.1), SS, A3 Academy HS (FL), Texas Tech commit
217. Evan Hankins (19.2), 1B, Miller School HS (VA), Tennessee commit
218. Riley Nelson (21.6), 1B, Vanderbilt
219. Tucker Biven (21.3), RHP, Louisville
220. Zane Taylor (23.1), RHP, UNC Wilmington
221. Jalin Flores (21.9), SS, Texas
222. Zach Strickland (19.1), RHP, Maranatha HS (CA), UCLA commit
223. Gabe Davis (21.7), RHP, Oklahoma State
224. Pico Kohn (22.9), LHP, Mississippi State
225. Mason Peters (21.6), LHP, Dallas Baptist
226. Peter Mershon (19.2), C, Eastside HS (SC), Mississippi State commit
227. Marcelo Harsch (18.1), RHP, Seton Hall Prep HS (NJ), Wake Forest commit
228. Brody Walls (18.9), RHP, McKinney Boyd HS (TX), Texas commit
229. Nate Snead (21.3), RHP, Tennessee
230. Grady Westphal (18.9), RHP, Blue Valley HS (KS), Texas commit
231. Mason Braun (18.3), LF, Penn HS (IN), LSU commit
232. Trevor Cohen (21.8), CF, Rutgers
233. Landon Beidelschies (21.3), LHP, Arkansas
234. Emilio Barreras (21.7), SS, Grand Canyon
235. Ethan Young (21.5), RHP, East Carolina
236. Ryan Weingartner (21.0), SS, Penn State
237. Dylan Brown (21.0), LHP, Old Dominion
238. Brandon Shannon (18.7), RHP, McHenry West HS (IL), Louisville commit
239. Grayson Boles (18.8), RHP, St. Augustine HS (CA), Texas commit
240. Matt Klein (21.8), C, Louisville
241. Zion Theophilus (19.0), RHP, Moeller HS (OH), LSU commit
242. Grady Lenahan (18.8), CF, Pro5 Academy HS (NC), East Carolina commit
243. Hunter Allen (22.0), RHP, Ashland
244. Cal Scolari (21.2), RHP, San Diego
245. Dixon Williams (21.5), 2B, East Carolina
246. Kolten Smith (21.5), RHP, Georgia
247. Wyatt Vincent (18.9), SS, Nixa HS (MO), Missouri State commit
248. Hunter Elliott (22.9), LHP, Ole Miss
249. Jared Jones (22.0), 1B, LSU
250. Anthony Frobose (17.9), SS, Lakeland HS (NY), Rutgers commit
You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.
We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.
Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson
1. Penn State: Ryan Day
Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter
Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale
3. Texas: Oklahoma
In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson
4. Georgia: Alabama
The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low
5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg
6. LSU: Daytime home games
LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low
7. Notre Dame: Miami
No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg
8. Oregon: Ohio State
Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama: Vanderbilt
Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low
10. BYU: Utah
It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly
Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg
12. Arizona State: Regression
Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly
13. South Carolina: LSU
South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale
14. Iowa State: Kansas State
There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly
15. SMU: TCU
SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson
16. Texas Tech: Baylor
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson
17. Indiana: UCLA
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg
18. Kansas State: Iowa State
As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly
19. Florida: Georgia
Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson
20. Michigan: Ohio State
Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter
21. Miami: Syracuse
Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson
22. Louisville: Kentucky
In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale
23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson
24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State
Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low
25. Oklahoma: Texas
In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson
It’s posturing season. Major League Baseball’s trade deadline goes through the same mechanics every year. Following June calls to indicate interest in players, early-to-mid-July brings out the first offers, which are inevitably imbalanced toward the teams willing to move players and, accordingly, holding all the leverage.
It’s the reason trades before the All-Star break are rare — and also a reminder that just because a match isn’t there now, it doesn’t preclude one going forward. So many elements play into a deadline (the keenness of teams to send away quality players, the willingness of contenders to make a move over the objection of their analytical model, the standings, recent performance and dozens of others) that to link team and player in a potential deal is a fool’s errand.
Well, consider this slightly foolish. Needs are needs, and even the best teams in baseball have them. Who would be the best players to fill them? This exercise endeavors to answer that.
Below are the 16 teams in MLB with winning records. Certainly a cadre of under-.500 teams — the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks chief among them — could work their way into the conversation despite their slow starts. For now, though, these are the best teams baseball has to offer, and for each we found a fit among available players that makes too much sense not to pursue.
Teams are listed in order of record by league.
American League
59-35, first place, AL Central
Weakness: Swing-and-miss relievers
Best match: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians) and Griffin Jax (Minnesota Twins) are the right answers, but the likelihood of Detroit pulling off an in-division deal to get a swing-and-miss reliever is minimal. Which leaves Bednar, who has rebounded from an atrocious 2024 to recapture his form of 2021-23, when he was among the five best relievers in baseball. With a high-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a mean splitter, Bednar’s arsenal would give the Tigers a ninth-inning option beyond Will Vest or Tommy Kahnle.
Beyond the bullpen, the Tigers don’t need much. They can really hit, with eight of their nine regulars sporting slugging percentages of .415 or better. Manager AJ Hinch’s constant tinkering — the most Detroit has used one lineup this year is four times — doesn’t just work, it is an identity the team embraces.
And as much as the Tigers could use capital from their tremendous farm system to add to this team, they don’t necessarily need it. This is the second year of a window that’s bound to last. Securing Bednar’s services for two playoff runs is the sort of incremental step needed to capitalize in a down American League.
55-38, first place, AL West
Weakness: Starting pitching and left-handed hitting
Best match: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are.
So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that’s among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo’s ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo’s peripherals suggest he’s in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo’s nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game — a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game.
54-39, first place, American League East
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once. The 29-year-old is producing the best season of his seven-year career with the Pirates, averaging nearly six innings a start and giving up only seven home runs in 106⅓ innings. The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.
Further, Keller remains under contract for three years at a reasonable $54.5 million, and with starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer free agents after this year and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 season, Toronto covets controllable starting pitching in a market that, at the moment at least, doesn’t offer much.
Pittsburgh could hold onto Keller and march into 2026 with a staff of Keller, Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler and Bailey Falter — easily a top-10 rotation, maybe better — with Hunter Barco not far behind. But the Pirates desperately need bats and while Toronto’s farm system is not teeming with them, the Blue Jays can cobble together enough to make a deal worth Pittsburgh’s while.
51-41, second place, AL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Third baseman and pitching
Best match: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks
This could be Seth Lugo. Or Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. Or any number of players. The Yankees are not going to stop at one player this deadline. For all their strengths — and there are plenty — they have too many weaknesses to take half-measures.
Suárez is an excellent first step. His power is undeniable, a perfect fit in the middle of any lineup. He plays third base, a black hole for New York this season. The Yankees could two-birds-one-stone a deal and get Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly from Arizona, too. But Suárez is the main target, because even if other third-base options exist — Nolan Arenado in St. Louis, Ryan McMahon in Colorado, Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh — they’re owed significant money and are under contract for multiple years. Suárez’s expiring contract would allow the Yankees a trial run, and if he thrives in the Bronx, all they would need to bring him back is cash.
50-43, third place, AL East (second wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
Remember, now, this is the best match, not necessarily the likeliest. Minnesota is notoriously value-conscious in its dealings, and the Twins will put an exceptionally high price on Jax, whom they regard as one of the best relievers in baseball — an opinion shared by most teams. With a fastball that sits at 97 mph and a dastardly slider, he is a setup man in name and a closer in stuff — precisely what the Rays, who are missing Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge, could use.
The Rays aren’t typically the sort of team to overpay for relievers, even ones with two additional years of club control. If not Jax, they could opt for Brock Stewart (Twins), who likewise has a vast array of swing-and-miss stuff — and two more years of team control as well.
48-44, second place, AL West (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Corner infielder
Best match: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
Though the Mariners are managing with Donovan Solano and Luke Raley at first base, upgrading to Naylor would transform Seattle’s lineup for the better. Whether it’s slotting him behind J.P. Crawford to ensure Cal Raleigh comes to the plate with more baserunners, or sticking him in between Raleigh and Randy Arozarena to do the cleaning up himself, Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.
Pairing him with Eugenio Suárez would plug both of Seattle’s holes, and certainly the Mariners have the prospect capital to pull off the double. Considering the state of their pitching — a tremendous rotation and a Gabe Speier–Matt Brash–Andrés Muñoz endgame — the Mariners need only a depth reliever to feel comfortable. Upgrading the lineup is the distinct priority over the next three weeks, and executives expect Seattle to act aggressively.
49-45, fourth place, AL East (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Red Sox relievers walk too many hitters and don’t strike out enough. Take away Aroldis Chapman — the best reliever in the AL this season — and the Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Getting Helsley from St. Louis would give Boston arguably the top setup-closer combination in baseball and go a long way toward supporting a rotation that has been among the game’s best over the past month.
Boston has the makings of a very good team in the second half. Alex Bregman will return soon. Roman Anthony has an OPS of nearly 1.000 over his past 10 games. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in baseball. Carlos Narváez is a gem. Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, even Abraham Toro — everyone is contributing. A reliever or two and another starter would make the Red Sox the sort of contender they envisioned being at the beginning of the season.
National League
56-38, first place, NL West
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
The Dodgers enter every deadline season seeking a major move, and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Durán qualifies. With a fastball that averages over 100 mph, a splinker that sits at 98 and a curveball to keep hitters off balance, Durán is pitching as well as ever. He hasn’t given up a home run this season, and his 1.52 ERA is third in MLB for pitchers with at least 40 innings.
The asking price will be hefty. Durán comes with two more years of team control beyond this season. The Dodgers don’t have time to waste on taking advantage of Shohei Ohtani‘s prime, though, and assembling a team with standouts in all facets is a reasonable goal. For a group threatening to approach a major league record for pitchers used in a season — the Dodgers are at 35, the record is 42 from Seattle in 2019 — adding another wouldn’t in and of itself be a needle-mover. If that one happens to be Durán, the Dodgers could theoretically trot out him, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia to make their bullpen every bit as scary as the rest of their team.
Chicago Cubs
54-38, first place, NL Central
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins
The market for Alcántara might not reflect his résumé. A former Cy Young Award winner, the 29-year-old has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, with an ERA just above 7.22. Some teams — even ones that could desperately use starting pitching — see the remaining two years and $38.3 million on Alcántara’s deal as an impediment to any trade, particularly with Marlins GM Peter Bendix asking for a haul in return.
Whether it’s Alcántara or another starter, the Cubs are a good starter away from having one of the top teams in baseball. Their offense is undeniable. Their defense is magnificent. Their bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Adding a playoff-caliber starter, even if it pushes Chicago past the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, would reward a team that has brought excitement back to the North Side of Chicago.
54-39, first place, National League East
Weakness: Bullpen and outfield
Best match: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
As long as the Phillies are aiming high — and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski — perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland. Maybe it would take Andrew Painter. Maybe Aidan Miller. Maybe Justin Crawford. Regardless, the Phillies’ window is closing, and getting both club control (Clase is under contract through 2028 and Kwan through 2027) and cost certainty (Clase is due $26 million for the next three years and Kwan less than $20 million for two) would make dealing high-end prospects significantly more palatable.
If Cleveland ultimately balks at moving Clase, it doesn’t change the imperative: Philadelphia needs to address its weaknesses. This bullpen is not suited to win a playoff series, much less the World Series. The consequence of bad relief pitching manifested itself in the postseason last year, when the New York Mets filleted Phillies relievers for 17 runs in 12⅔ innings. No other bullpen gave up more than nine runs in the division series. Clase (or Jhoan Durán or any shutdown reliever, really) is just a start. An on-the-fly overhaul is what this team needs — and deserves.
53-39, second place, NL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Mets started 45-24 on the strength of their starting pitching. With a 2.79 ERA that was nearly a quarter-run better than the second-best rotation, they cut the figure of a juggernaut. Since June 13, their starters’ 5.61 ERA is worse than every team in baseball aside from Washington. And if your starters are getting compared to those of the Nationals, something went haywire.
Gallen has looked more like his old self in recent starts, and if his home run rate stabilizes — typically one per nine, it has jumped to 1.6 — alongside a perilously low strand rate normalizing, he can shake off the 5.15 ERA and be a real difference-maker for the Mets before hitting free agency after the season. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t, as a general rule, spend big on pitching. In this case, though, an investment in Gallen makes too much sense for the Mets not to consider.
53-40, second place, NL Central (second wild card)
Weakness: Power
Best match: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
With 88 home runs, the Brewers rank just 21st in MLB. And while that hasn’t impeded their production — they’re eighth in runs scored — another big bat could do their offense wonders. Nobody will mistake the soon-to-be-32-year-old O’Hearn for Aaron Judge, but he punishes right-handed pitching, and in a lineup without any boppers, O’Hearn also could serve as the strong side of a first-base platoon and pick up outfield and DH at-bats.
Milwaukee’s options are fascinating. Jacob Misiorowski‘s arrival has been an unmitigated success and only added to the Brewers’ starting pitching depth. They could easily move a starting pitcher and tap into their deep prospect well for O’Hearn. The add-and-subtract maneuver is risky, sure, but the Brewers have steeled themselves to weather it. The Brewers, as currently constituted, are solid. Better second halves from Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, continued solid pitching and the proper sort of deadline aggressiveness could make them even more.
51-43, second place, NL West (third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants made their big move already, getting the best player who will move this season — designated hitter Rafael Devers — to shore up their offense. Intradivision trades can be trying, but if Buster Posey has shown anything in his first season as president of baseball operations, it’s a willingness to stomach the sorts of deals that would scare off his peers.
Kelly represents a significant upgrade over the Giants’ backend rotation options, as Justin Verlander and Hayden Birdsong are sporting ERAs of 6.27 and 5.73, respectively, since June 1. Whether the Giants are real or simply a function of a bullpen whose core of Camilo Doval, Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, Spencer Bivens and Ryan Walker has given up only 11 home runs in 232⅔ innings remains to be seen. For an organization seeking its first postseason series win in nearly a decade, though, there is never a time as urgent as now.
49-43, third place, NL West (one game behind third wild card)
Weakness: Left field
Best match: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
No player and team have been linked as strongly as Duran and the Padres — and that’s without any knowledge of how the Red Sox intend to handle the deadline. Roman Anthony’s emergence has put Boston in a position to float Duran and Wilyer Abreu in trade discussions, and whether it’s now or over the winter, Boston wants to use its surplus of bats to fill voids elsewhere.
Left field in San Diego is among the biggest voids in the game. The Padres have tried eight players in left this season, and collectively they’re barely have an OPS of over .600. A Duran-Jackson Merrill–Fernando Tatis Jr. outfield would be a factory of dynamism that would be under team control through the end of the 2028 season. The Padres might need to get creative — beyond shortstop Leo De Vries (who’s believed to be off-limits) and catcher Ethan Salas, their farm system is middling — but nobody does creativity like GM A.J. Preller. And whether that means facilitating a deal through a third team or including one of their high-leverage relievers like closer Robert Suárez, San Diego is willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.
49-44, third place, NL Central (1½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Certainly there’s a world in which John Mozeliak’s final deadline as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations is uneventful. The NL is stacked, and for all of the Cardinals’ improvement this season, they remain a flawed team. And yet there’s also a world in which Mozeliak can make this year’s team better and simultaneously set up his successor, Chaim Bloom, with a rotation option for the future.
The Rays don’t have a strong desire to move the 24-year-old Bradley, but with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Joe Boyle all pitching well, and ace Shane McClanahan out on a rehabilitation assignment, Tampa Bay is at least entertaining the idea. Bradley’s stuff has exceeded his performance over his three major league seasons, but the controllable-starting-pitching market is practically empty, and St. Louis’ farm system is replete with high-end catchers, which would fill a vacuum for the Rays
47-46, fourth place, NL Central (3½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Bullpen and big bat
Best match: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
With a sneaky-deep farm system, the Reds could put together the sort of package to convince Cleveland to move Kwan, a two-time All-Star who in his four seasons ranks fifth in wins above replacement among all outfielders, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodríguez. Kwan’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills in left field are elite, and with free agency not beckoning until after the 2027 season, sandwiching him between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz strengthens a Reds lineup that could use an offensive infusion.
If the cost to acquire Kwan is too high, other good options exist, chief among them Marcell Ozuna, the Atlanta slugger whose swing was built for Great American Ball Park. With a rotation that includes All-Star Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns, the Reds are a terrifying postseason opponent. Another bat would buttress the rotation and give Cincinnati an opportunity to turn potential into its first postseason series win in three decades.
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David Schoenfield
Comparing MLB to the NBA is kind of like comparing apples to pomegranates, but the NBA, with its rapid-fire spate of blockbuster trades and signings, certainly has us wishing major league front office executives operated as daringly as their basketball counterparts.
The conservative nature in baseball is understandable. Nobody wants to end up as the general manager who trades Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez and a failed playoff bid.
But every now and then we get a shocking deal. At the MLB trade deadline in 2022, the San Diego Padres gave up five highly rated young players to acquire Juan Soto, who still had two-plus seasons left of team control. Three of those young players — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams — now form the core of the Washington Nationals. And just a few weeks ago came the surprise mid-June trade of Rafael Devers, in only the second year of a 10-year contract, from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants.
Might another similarly entertaining megadeal occur this month ahead of the deadline on July 31? Probably not, but we can dream.
Let’s consider three players who almost certainly won’t be made available for trade this year, but whose names have been kicked around in (quite unlikely) fan trade scenarios. If the right offer did arrive, the player’s organization would have to at least consider making the deal … right?
Call them Godfather offers. Let’s see what it would take to land three star players in 2025.
(All prospect rankings are from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 update from late May.)
Why they’ll probably keep him: He’s arguably the best starter in baseball, perhaps on his way to a Cy Young Award in his first full season. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport — despite playing for the lowly Pirates — and a player you can build not only a pitching staff around but a championship contender. He’s under team control through 2029 and doesn’t even become arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the Pirates are still years away from paying him a fair salary.
But Skenes is a pitcher — and pitchers get hurt. So, if the Pirates are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: New York Mets offer SS/CF Jett Williams (No. 20), RHP Jonah Tong (No. 50), RHP Nolan McLean, IF Ronny Mauricio, OF Carson Benge
Offer No. 2: Los Angeles Dodgers offer C/OF Dalton Rushing (No. 14), OF Josue De Paula (No. 17), IF Alex Freeland, RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Jackson Ferris
Offer No. 3: Detroit Tigers offer OF Max Clark (No. 8), SS Kevin McGonigle (No. 11), RHP Jackson Jobe, IF Colt Keith, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
The one that could get it done: Tigers
A playoff rotation with Skenes and Tarik Skubal? Thank you very much. Reminder: The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.
It will take one of the best farm systems in the sport to acquire Skenes, and Detroit is incredibly well positioned to make this kind of deal, with depth at both the major league and minor league levels, not to mention a payroll with only one expensive long-term commitment in Javier Baez. Two of the top prospects in the sport in Clark and McGonigle headline this trade, with both currently excelling in High-A ball. Clark, a speedy center fielder, has a .429 OBP with more walks than strikeouts, and McGonigle is hitting .373 with a high contact rate and OPS over 1.100. Former top pitching prospect Jobe underwent Tommy John surgery in June and would be a nice inclusion for the Pirates to gamble on.
For the Tigers, the deal wouldn’t even decimate their farm system. They would still have shortstop Bryce Rainer (No. 22), first baseman/catcher Josue Briceno and a slew of solid pitching prospects. For the Pirates, Clark and McGonigle project as solutions at two problem areas in center field (where Oneil Cruz has struggled defensively) and shortstop (stopgap Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the current starter) plus they get a solid major leaguer in Keith and a back-end rotation-type in Gipson-Long.
As much as the Mets could use a staff ace, their system is deeper in pitching prospects, which doesn’t best align with the Pirates’ needs. As the Dodgers’ pitching injuries have piled up again, Skenes could be a match. Rushing is blocked at catcher by Will Smith, and he and De Paula probably have more power upside (De Paula has drawn Yordan Alvarez comparisons) than Clark and McGonigle. The Pirates might, understandably, ask for Roki Sasaki, and that could be the deal-breaker for the Dodgers.
Why they’ll probably keep him: Acuña has been one of the best hitters in the majors since returning in late May from his second ACL surgery and has been the best hitter on a Braves team that is near the bottom of the National League in runs scored. He is signed through 2028 on an incredibly team-friendly deal that pays him just $17 million per season — making it one of the best contracts in the sport for a team. At just 27 years old, he remains in the middle of his prime and is one of the sport’s most dynamic talents.
But Acuña’s knees are a long-term concern, Atlanta lacks depth in both the lineup and pitching staff, and this looks like a lost season.
So, if the Braves are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers offer SS Jesus Made (No. 5), SS Luis Pena, OF Sal Frelick, RHP Logan Henderson, RHP Abner Uribe
Offer No. 2: Seattle Mariners offer SS Colt Emerson (No. 10), RHP Bryce Miller, C Harry Ford, OF Lazaro Montes, LHP Brandyn Garcia
Offer No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays offer SS Carson Willliams (No. 27), RHP Shane Baz, OF Theo Gillen, RHP Yoniel Curet, RHP Brody Hopkins
The one that could get it done: Mariners
The Mariners have never played in a World Series. Their right-field production is among the worst in the majors. Oh, and they have a loaded farm system with nine prospects on MLB.com’s recently updated top 100, more than any other team. On that list, Emerson came in at No. 18, Montes at No. 29 and Ford at No. 56. Miller’s value is temporarily down since he’s out because of right elbow inflammation, but he had a 2.94 ERA for the Mariners in 2024 and could give the Braves a front-line starter if healthy.
Ford might not be a perfect fit for Atlanta with Drake Baldwin (plus Sean Murphy) at catcher, but Cal Raleigh blocks Ford in Seattle. The Braves could trade Murphy in the offseason, and Ford does have the athleticism to play some outfield — although he has played exclusively behind the plate at Triple-A, where he’s hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. Emerson is a favorite of scouts with his hard contact and ability to play shortstop, although he’s still learning to lift the ball more, while Montes recently earned a promotion to Double-A after slugging .572 in High-A at age 20.
For the Mariners, Acuña would fit nicely at the top of the order or hitting second in front of Raleigh, allowing them to slide Julio Rodriguez lower in the lineup — and maybe Acuña’s presence would also help take some pressure off Rodriguez. Most importantly: Acuña’s salary is a realistic fit even for the Mariners, who don’t like to spend. And despite giving up three excellent prospects and a young starting pitcher, their farm system would remain strong. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.
Milwaukee’s offer is enticing with two premium hitting prospects in Made and Pena, but it’s a riskier package as the 18-year-olds are a long way from the majors and neither is a lock to stick at shortstop, a big offensive hole in the Braves’ lineup. Williams would be the key to the Tampa Bay trade, but his sky-high strikeout rate at Triple-A has caused him to drop in the rankings and limits his offensive upside.
Why they’ll probably keep him: The Twins are under .500, but that doesn’t mean they’re out of the playoff race. Buxton has been their best player and best hitter as he’s on pace for a career high in WAR. Though he hasn’t reached the heights of Acuña at Acuña’s best, Buxton’s contract is also team friendly, as he’s signed through 2028 and making $15.1 million per season. He’s 31 years old but is still one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.
But Buxton, while healthy in 2025, is frequently sidelined by injuries. So, if the Twins are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter (No. 23) and OF Justin Crawford
Offer No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder (No. 48), RHP Chase Petty (No. 49) and 3B Sal Stewart
Offer No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields
The one that could get it done: Phillies
The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati’s case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A.
Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who’s having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he’s the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team’s overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber. Adding Buxton adds more pop to the middle of the order.
Painter gives the Twins a potential ace, and they have top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez ready to take over in center field anyway. The 21-year-old Crawford is a divisive prospect (he’s No. 49 in the MLB.com rankings) because while he’s hitting for a high average at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he hits the ball on the ground too much and has only two home runs. Still, there’s a chance he produces a good OBP and plus defense with his speed.
The Royals’ challenge trade with Ragans is intriguing but risky for Minnesota, given he’s on the injured list right now because of a rotator cuff strain. Plus, intradivision trades are hard to pull off. The Twins would want Chase Burns from the Reds, but that’s probably a nonstarter for Cincinnati.
Will we get some surprise spicy deals this trade deadline? Will it just be the usual list of free-agents-to-be and relief pitchers? In a season that remains so wide open, the time might be right for some outside-the-box movement.
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